Justin Verlander

Mets Place Carlos Carrasco On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | April 18, 2023 at 7:49pm CDT

The Mets announced this evening that starter Carlos Carrasco is headed to the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 16, due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. New York recalled reliever Jeff Brigham from Triple-A Syracuse to take the active roster spot. The club also announced that reliever Dennis Santana cleared waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse after being designated for assignment over the weekend.

Manager Buck Showalter told the team’s beat that Carrasco will head back to New York to undergo imaging (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). It’s not yet clear what the issue is or how severe it might be, but it’s a concerning development for a 36-year-old pitcher. Carrasco has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons as a Met. He lost a chunk of the first half in 2021 to a hamstring strain and missed a bit of time last year with an oblique issue. He’s generally avoided elbow concerns in recent years, though he did undergo Tommy John surgery over a decade ago while playing for Cleveland.

The start to the season hasn’t gone well for the veteran righty. He’s been tagged for 13 runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts. Carrasco has eight strikeouts and walks apiece and has already surrendered a trio of home runs. He’s also battled a velocity dip. Carrasco’s average fastball speed has checked in at 91.3 MPH; that’s down nearly two ticks from last season’s 93.2 MPH average. He certainly hasn’t appeared to be at full strength and the IL stint reflects that.

Carrasco joins Justin Verlander and José Quintana as expected rotation members on the shelf. Quintana won’t be back until midseason but Verlander should be able to make his team debut before too long. Verlander is tentatively scheduled to throw a live batting practice session on Sunday, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’ll be on a five-day throwing program from that point, with a minor league rehab start the anticipated next step. That points towards a potential MLB return in the first week of May if all goes as planned.

In the meantime, the Mets will have to plug another rotation vacancy. Injuries to Verlander and Quintana forced the team to call upon David Peterson and Tylor Megill. The likes of José Butto and Joey Lucchesi project as the next line of defense. Butto was already called up for a spot start against the A’s over the weekend. He was promptly optioned out and has to spend 15 days in the minors unless he’s replacing someone who lands on the IL. Considering he wasn’t the corresponding promotion with Carrasco’s placement, that might point towards Lucchesi getting a call later this week.

Santana lost his roster spot as part of the shuffling to accommodate Butto’s promotion last Saturday. The sinkerballer has bounced around via trade or on waivers since the start of the offseason. He’d made seven appearances for the Mets this year, allowing six runs over 7 2/3 frames. Santana has over three years of major league service time and has the right to refuse an outright assignment. Doing so would require forfeiting his $1MM salary, however, so it’s likely he’ll report to Syracuse and try to pitch his way back onto the MLB radar. He’d reach minor league free agency at season’s end if he’s not first added to the 40-man roster.

Pitching Notes: Woodruff, Verlander, Wainwright

By Simon Hampton | April 15, 2023 at 9:39am CDT

Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff had an MRI on his right shoulder and remains shut down until doctors map out a path forward, manager Craig Counsell relayed to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The team has already placed Woodruff on the IL.

There was initial hope that it’d just be a short stint on the IL, and that hasn’t been ruled out yet, but obviously the uncertainty over how best to proceed is a little concerning. Woodruff made another strong start to the season, giving up just one earned run across two starts and 11 1/3 innings. An injury for any length of time would be a significant blow to the Brewers, who have made a strong start to the season.

Woodruff has blossomed into one of the game’s better starting pitchers in recent years, compiling a 2.97 ERA across 94 starts since the 2019 season. While he did miss some time for a high ankle sprain last year, he’s never missed time in the big leagues with an arm-related injury.

Here’s a few more notes:

Sonja Chen of MLB.com relays an update from Mets manager Buck Showalter on injured starter Justin Verlander. The veteran is scheduled for a bullpen in Florida, and then if that goes well he’ll throw another side before facing live batters. Once he’s ticked off those, he could be ready for a Mets debut. Verlander hit the shelf after suffering a low-grade strain of the teres major muscle towards the end of spring training. While there’s no firm timetable for his return just yet, it does appear that Mets fans won’t have to wait too much longer to see their star off-season recruit make his debut. The 40-year old Verlander signed with the Mets on a two-year, $86.67MM deal this winter after making 28 starts of 1.75 ERA ball for the Astros last year.
John Denton of MLB.com tweets that Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright threw a 50-pitch simulated game prior to last night’s game against the Pirates at Busch Stadium. Wainwright is working his way back from a groin injury suffered in spring training. It’s not entirely clear what the next step for Wainwright is, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go and make a rehab start at some point. The 41-year old has remained a steady presence in the Cardinals’ rotation, making 32 starts in each of the past two seasons and working to a combined 3.37 ERA. Jake Woodward made a strong start against the Pirates last night, but he would appear the likeliest to drop out of the rotation once Wainwright returns.

Verlander: Return In April Is “Very Reasonable” Expectation

By Darragh McDonald | April 7, 2023 at 3:09pm CDT

Mets right-hander Justin Verlander is on the injured list due to a low-grade strain of the teres major muscle in his shoulder and provided an update on his condition today, with Laura Albanese of Newsday among those to relay his comments (Twitter links). Verlander says that he turned a corner in recent days and that returning to the club in April is a “very reasonable” expectation.

That’s a welcome development for the Mets for multiple reasons. Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the game and any rotation would be better with him in it. He posted a 1.75 ERA with the Astros last year with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate. That was despite being 39 years old, in addition to missing all of 2021 and most of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery. He was awarded the American League Cy Young for that stellar performance.

The Mets also began the season without José Quintana, who will be out until at least July due to rib surgery. Those two injuries bumped David Peterson and Tylor Megill into a rotation that has wobbled a bit lately. Peterson was solid in his first start against the Marlins but then allowed five earned runs in four innings against the Brewers. The Brew Crew also scored five earned runs on each of Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco this week, eventually sweeping the three-game series and leaving the Mets’ record at 3-4 coming into today.

The Mets have also been dealing with injuries elsewhere on the roster, with multiple relievers on the IL and catcher Omar Narváez joining them earlier today. It’s been a frustrating beginning to the season after an aggressive winter where they spent wildly in free agency. That included a two-year, $86.6MM deal for Verlander, which was part of the tally that launched the club past the highest tier of the Competitive Balance Tax.

The injuries have hobbled the club a bit here in the early going but it sounds like Verlander could be back within a few weeks. He says that he’s been throwing during his IL stint, meaning that he’ll have a bit of a headstart in ramping back up and will lobby against requiring a rehab assignment, per Tim Healey of Newsday. Once he’s able to return, he would likely push either Megill or Peterson back to a depth role in the minors.

Latest On Justin Verlander

By Anthony Franco | April 5, 2023 at 5:31pm CDT

The Mets provided an update on Justin Verlander this afternoon. Their newly signed ace has been on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a low-grade strain of the teres major muscle in his shoulder at the end of Spring Training.

New York sent Verlander for an MRI this morning, raising some amount of concern amongst the fanbase. Fortunately, imaging revealed diminished inflammation, according to the club. He remains without a firm timetable for a return to MLB action but is going to continue a throwing program.

It’s a solid update, all things considered. While there’s still some issue with Verlander’s shoulder and no specific return date, that imaging didn’t turn up any serious structural issues is a positive. The Mets are already going to be without José Quintana for a few months. That pushed David Peterson into the starting staff and Verlander’s injury led to Tylor Megill claiming a back-end job. Joey Lucchesi and José Butto are at Triple-A Syracuse as the presumed next options if any of the current five suffer an injury.

In other New York news, catcher Omar Narváez left this afternoon’s loss to Milwaukee in the ninth inning. After the game, manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic) Narváez had some discomfort in his left calf. He’s day-to-day for now and will presumably be further evaluated over the next few days.

Tomás Nido is the other backstop on the active roster. Top prospect Francisco Álvarez opened the year on optional assignment to Syracuse, with the Mets preferring to get him consistent reps in the minors as opposed to more sporadic MLB playing time. If Narváez requires an IL stint, Álvarez would be the most straightforward option to replace him on the active roster. The Mets don’t have any other catchers on the 40-man roster; veteran Michael Pérez is a non-roster option in Syracuse.

The Opener: Rodriguez, Mets, MLBTR Podcast

By Nick Deeds | April 5, 2023 at 8:08am CDT

As the grind of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Could Rodriguez debut today?

Orioles top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is on the verge of being promoted, and could make his MLB debut as soon as today in Texas. That’s not a guarantee, however, as the club will need to make room for Rodriguez on the active roster, which they have not done to this point. It’s possible Kyle Bradish will require a stint on the injured list, opening up a spot for Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t the club could also go with Austin Voth to start today’s game against the Rangers. Because Rodriguez was optioned a week ago, he can only be recalled if someone goes on the injured list. Otherwise, there’s a 15-day minimum gap required between the option and call-up.

2. Mets to have imaging done on Baty, Verlander

As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Mets top prospect Brett Baty left yesterday’s game in Triple-A with soreness in the same thumb that required surgery at the end of last season. Baty is scheduled to get imaging done on the thumb today, so it’s possible we’ll hear how much impact, if any, the apparent injury will have on Baty going forward at some point today. Baty isn’t the only key piece in the Mets organization undergoing imaging today, however, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that Justin Verlander is scheduled for an MRI today. Verlander has been on the injured list since the start of the season with what has been described as a “extremely minor” teres major strain.

3. MLBTR Podcast Returns

After a seven-year hiatus, the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is returning! New host Simon Hampton talks with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in the first episode, which will be available later today. Simon and Anthony will discuss a variety of hot-button topics around the baseball world, including looking ahead to the trade deadline this summer, while also answering listener questions. Keep an eye out throughout the day for more information.

NL East Notes: Verlander, Wright, Keuchel, Plawecki

By Mark Polishuk | April 1, 2023 at 7:34pm CDT

Justin Verlander’s tenure with the Mets got off to an unfortunate start when the veteran righty was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a teres major strain. The injury was described as “low-grade” in the Mets’ initial release, and a source tells SNY TV’s Andy Martino that Verlander’s strain is “very minor.” More will officially be known when Verlander undergoes a follow-up MRI next week, but it does seem like the ace might be able to be activated from the IL when first eligible. That could mean a home start against the Padres on April 11 or 12, or just out of added precaution, the Mets might wait to activate Verlander until April 14 when the team visits Oakland.

Mets Place Justin Verlander On Injured List

By Steve Adams | March 31, 2023 at 4:55pm CDT

March 31: The Mets have now officially placed Verlander on the IL and recalled Megill, per Tim Healey of Newsday. The move is retroactive to March 28.

March 30: The Mets announced that they will place right-hander Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list with a “low-grade teres major strain.” According to the team, Verlander “will continue throwing at moderate intensity” and be reevaluated in a week. They’ll provide a further update at that time. Righty Tylor Megill will be recalled from Triple-A and take Verlander’s spot in the rotation for the time being, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The 40-year-old Verlander’s velocity was down in his final outing of spring training, but the team hadn’t hinted at any type of injury until today’s out-of-the-blue announcement. General manager Billy Eppler tells the Mets beat that Verlander first reported discomfort last night and had an MRI this morning (Twitter link via Newsday’s Tim Healey). Verlander himself said he was working through some things that he initially attributed to routine spring discomfort (video link via DiComo). However, when he felt continued discomfort into his final bullpen of spring training and “connected the dots” with his decreased velocity in his most recent spring outing, he decided to get checked out.

Until next week’s follow-up MRI, it’ll be impossible to know just how long Verlander might be sidelined. He’s voiced confidence that it’s minor in nature and said he’d pitch if this occurred during the postseason. That’s encouraging, but even a brief absence is notable.

The Mets are already without one of Verlander’s fellow offseason signees, left-hander Jose Quintana, who will miss upwards of half the season following a bone graft procedure to remove a benign lesion from his ribcage. Quintana’s injury pushed sixth starter David Peterson into the rotation, and they’ll now already be tapping into Megill, their No. 7 option, before a single inning of their season has transpired.

Verlander lost the 2021 season to Tommy John surgery and not only returned in 2022 but improbably stormed back to ace status at age 39, winning the American League Cy Young Award on the heels of a 1.75 ERA over 175 innings. He punched out 27.8% of his opponents against a masterful 4.4% walk rate, averaging 95.1 mph on his heater along the way and generally looking like his typical, dominant self. That brilliant comeback prompted the Mets to make a two-year, $86.66MM offer, matching the annual value on the record-setting contract they’d given to co-ace Max Scherzer.

Assuming Verlander’s absence indeed proves brief, he’ll still be expected to pair with Scherzer and give the Mets two of this generation’s most accomplished arms atop the starting staff. Still, it’s surely a gut-punch to a team that moved on from now-former ace Jacob deGrom largely for durability reasons in recent years. Verlander can be placed on the IL retroactive to March 27 — three days is the largest backdating permissible under MLB rules — so he’ll be shelved for at least the first 12 days of the season.

Mets Sign Justin Verlander

By Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2022 at 6:37pm CDT

The Mets have officially signed the defending AL Cy Young winner, announcing Wednesday evening they’ve inked Justin Verlander to a two-year contract with a vesting option for 2025. It’s reportedly an $86.66MM guarantee, and if Verlander pitches 140 innings in 2024, he will have a $35MM player option for 2025. Verlander will make $43.33MM in each of the two guaranteed years of the deal and has a full no-trade clause. Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

Verlander was one of the most unique free agents in modern baseball, given his unusual circumstances. He made just one start in 2020 and missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, after which he reached free agency. At that point, he had essentially missed two full years and was going into his age-39 season. However, he won the American League Cy Young award when he was last healthy in 2019.

Despite the long layoff, Verlander had plenty of interest based on his previous track record and a spring showcase that demonstrated his health to interested teams. He eventually re-signed with the Astros on a one-year, $25MM deal with a matching $25MM player option for 2023 on the condition that Verlander reached 130 innings pitched this year. Not only did Verlander breeze past that marker, he added yet another excellent campaign to his lengthy track record. He tossed 175 innings, making a brief trip to the injured list for a calf injury. He posted a miniscule 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate, earning his third career Cy Young award. Based on that excellent campaign, he made the easy decision to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger salary. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer due to the fact that he had already received one previously in his career.

This created a free agency that was essentially unprecedented. It’s extremely rare for pitchers to pitch so well this late into their careers, especially after such a lengthy layoff. With Verlander about to turn 40 in February, he was never going to get an incredibly lengthy deal. However, he has previously expressed a desire to pitch into his mid-4os, meaning he could conceivably seek to get a multi-year deal of some kind. The closest reasonable comparison was Max Scherzer, who signed a three-year, $130MM deal to join the Mets a year ago, when he was going into his age-37 season. That came with a $43.33MM annual average value that smashed the previous record of $36MM, which was held by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.

Verlander is a few years older now than Scherzer was then, but the AAV was still seemingly a rough signpost for Verlander to aim for. Astros’ owner Jim Crane intimated that Verlander was using the Scherzer deal as a target in free agency, which was apparently beyond their comfort zone. For the Mets, their rotation was significantly impacted by free agency, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all his the open market. deGrom is already off the board, having signed with the Rangers in recent days. But they have quickly pivoted and replaced him with Verlander, who will now take deGrom’s spot as the co-ace next to Scherzer. He has reached his target by matching Scherzer with an AAV of $43.34MM, tying the all-time record. MLBTR predicted Verlander to get a three-year deal worth $120MM, an AAV of $40MM. He has instead secured the higher AAV on a shorter deal, though if he ends up triggering the option, he will get to $121.66MM over the three seasons. This is a reunion for Verlander and Scherzer, who were teammates in Detroit from 2010 to 2014.

For the Astros, they have been incredibly aggressive this winter but it seems their priorities have been elsewhere. Even without Verlander, the rotation is in good shape with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown all present as solid options. Since they apparently didn’t see eye-to-eye with Verlander, they have dedicated their resources to re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and then signing first baseman José Abreu.

The Mets have become a financial powerhouse in recent years, with new owner Steve Cohen willing to spend at or near the top of the market in order to bolster the club’s roster. Last year, they ran out an Opening Day payroll of $264MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are now set to go into 2023 with Verlander and Scherzer combining for over $86MM alone, well beyond the entire payrolls of some entire teams. Roster Resource now estimates the Mets’ payroll for next year to be $277MM, though perhaps more importantly their luxury tax estimate is $289MM. The lowest threshold of the competitive balance tax in 2023 will be $233MM, with three further tiers at $253MM, $273MM and $293MM, with the Mets now just barely under the top line. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023 and subject to increasing penalties. All spending over the lowest threshold is subject to a 30% tax for them, with extra surcharges at each subsequent tier: 12%, 45% and 60%. In other words, any spending over the $293MM tier will be subject to a 90% tax. Since they are still looking to upgrade their pitching staff and outfield, it seems almost certain that they will indeed go beyond that line.

All of that spending helped the Mets field a strong team in 2022, winning 101 games. Though that was the second-highest total in franchise history, they still were nudged into Wild Card status by the Braves. The Mets ended up with a bitter first-round defeat, losing their best-of-three series to the Padres. They are now seemingly planning to spend aggressively yet again and hope for better results in 2023. Verlander and Scherzer will take the top two spots in the rotation, with Carlos Carrasco behind them. That still leaves two spots available, with internal options like David Peterson and Tylor Megill candidates for those roles. However, the Mets still have a few months remaining in the offseason to make further moves.

Verlander was one of three pitchers considered to be the aces of this winter’s free agency, alongside deGrom and Carlos Rodón. The Mets lost deGrom to the Rangers but have now replaced him with Verlander. For teams still looking to add to the front of their rotation, they will now have to pivot for Rodon, who is reportedly looking for a six-year deal.

Former ball player Carlos Baerga reported last night on Instagram that the Mets and Verlander were nearing agreement on a two-year deal plus an option. Andy Martino of SNY reported today that an agreement was in place for a two-year deal with a vesting option, with the AAV of the deal near Scherzer’s. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported Verlander will make $43.3MM in each season, as well as the no-trade clause and the option value of $35MM. Heyman later added the 140 innings required to vest the player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the AAV is actually $43.33, matching Scherzer’s exactly.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.

Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.

That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.

Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.

This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.

Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.

As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.

Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.

Blue Jays “Remain Engaged” On Justin Verlander’s Market

By Mark Polishuk | December 4, 2022 at 9:02pm CDT

Justin Verlander strongly considered joining the Blue Jays last winter, to the point that the Jays may have been the runner-up to the Astros in the race to sign the future Hall-of-Famer. Toronto’s interest is still active a year later, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the Jays “remain engaged with” Verlander in the right-hander’s latest trip to the open market.

After a Cy Young Award-winning season, Verlander’s price tag has naturally gone up. Verlander landed a two-year, $50MM deal from the Astros last offseason despite missing virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and even though 2022 was Verlander’s age-39 season. Still, Verlander was more than worth the investment, as he posted one of the finest years of his incredible career and helped lead Houston to a World Series championship.

With his 40th birthday approaching in February, Verlander is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth roughly $130MM, akin to the deal Max Scherzer received from the Mets when Scherzer was entering his age-37 campaign (Scherzer turned 38 last July). The Scherzer deal represents the highest annual average value for any contract in baseball history, so speculatively, it would seem likely that Verlander and his representatives would want to top that AAV even if by just a bit, in order to set a new benchmark.

It’s a steep asking price for any team to meet, even if Verlander is a unique case as an all-time great who is still pitching at an elite level this late into his career. Such a large AAV is a risk for a player who will be in action only once every five days, and if Verlander gets hurt or has any kind of performance dropoff, the contract could quickly start to look like an albatross.

Spending that much on Verlander would also set a new standard for the Blue Jays, whose payroll is already at a record high for the franchise. Adding a $43MM-ish salary to the ledger would also put the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history — Roster Resource projects Toronto’s current tax number at slightly over $201MM, so a big AAV for Verlander would send the Blue Jays well over the initial $233MM tax threshold.

As Davidi puts it, signing Verlander “may very well cut [the Jays] off from other significant moves.” That is no small matter for a team that several other needs to be addressed beyond the rotation, even if starting pitching is Toronto’s top need. The Jays could use some more outfield depth after trading Teoscar Hernandez, second base is a somewhat unsettled area, and the bullpen could use some more reinforcement even after the addition of Erik Swanson from the Mariners in the Hernandez swap. If ownership did allow the front office to spend up to the tax threshold, it can be argued that the extra money would be better served being spent on multiple players, rather than a single superstar in Verlander.

All this to be said, signing Verlander would still make some baseball sense for the obvious boost he’d bring to the pitching staff. Verlander, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman would become arguably the top rotation trio in the sport, Jose Berrios would be an overqualified fourth starter if he can regain his form after a mediocre 2022 season, and the Jays might feel better about Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White battling over one starting spot than entrusting two spots in the rotation to question marks. If payroll or roster needs are a concern, the Jays could look to cut some salary in other areas, plus Toronto could still trade from its catching depth to acquire more talent.

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