The Opener: Rodriguez, Mets, MLBTR Podcast
As the grind of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Could Rodriguez debut today?
Orioles top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is on the verge of being promoted, and could make his MLB debut as soon as today in Texas. That’s not a guarantee, however, as the club will need to make room for Rodriguez on the active roster, which they have not done to this point. It’s possible Kyle Bradish will require a stint on the injured list, opening up a spot for Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t the club could also go with Austin Voth to start today’s game against the Rangers. Because Rodriguez was optioned a week ago, he can only be recalled if someone goes on the injured list. Otherwise, there’s a 15-day minimum gap required between the option and call-up.
2. Mets to have imaging done on Baty, Verlander
As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Mets top prospect Brett Baty left yesterday’s game in Triple-A with soreness in the same thumb that required surgery at the end of last season. Baty is scheduled to get imaging done on the thumb today, so it’s possible we’ll hear how much impact, if any, the apparent injury will have on Baty going forward at some point today. Baty isn’t the only key piece in the Mets organization undergoing imaging today, however, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that Justin Verlander is scheduled for an MRI today. Verlander has been on the injured list since the start of the season with what has been described as a “extremely minor” teres major strain.
3. MLBTR Podcast Returns
After a seven-year hiatus, the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is returning! New host Simon Hampton talks with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in the first episode, which will be available later today. Simon and Anthony will discuss a variety of hot-button topics around the baseball world, including looking ahead to the trade deadline this summer, while also answering listener questions. Keep an eye out throughout the day for more information.
NL East Notes: Verlander, Wright, Keuchel, Plawecki
Justin Verlander‘s tenure with the Mets got off to an unfortunate start when the veteran righty was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a teres major strain. The injury was described as “low-grade” in the Mets’ initial release, and a source tells SNY TV’s Andy Martino that Verlander’s strain is “very minor.” More will officially be known when Verlander undergoes a follow-up MRI next week, but it does seem like the ace might be able to be activated from the IL when first eligible. That could mean a home start against the Padres on April 11 or 12, or just out of added precaution, the Mets might wait to activate Verlander until April 14 when the team visits Oakland.
More from around the NL East….
- Kyle Wright is slated to throw a start at Triple-A on Wednesday, Braves manager Brian Snitker told The Atlanta Journal-Constiution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters. The team’s initial plan was to give Wright both a minor league outing and an outing in spring camp as he continues to make his preparations for the season, and Wright checked one box with a start in extended Spring Training last Thursday. Due to an offseason cortisone shot in his throwing shoulder, Wright’s normal winter routine was set back, and thus the Braves placed him on the IL to allow him more time to fully ramp up. Assuming no setbacks, Wright is projected to be activated from the IL during Atlanta’s series with the Reds from April 10-12.
- There hasn’t been any public buzz about Dallas Keuchel‘s market since the former AL Cy Young Award winner was released by the Rangers back in September, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies had some interest in signing Keuchel to a minor league deal, though no official offer came. Keuchel has struggled to a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 innings with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rangers since the start of the 2021 season, so it would be something of a low-risk flier for the Phillies or any other team to bring Keuchel aboard on a minors contract. While Keuchel might not be the choice, it certainly tracks that Philadelphia would be looking for some rotation depth, since Ranger Suarez, Nick Nelson, Cristopher Sanchez, and Andrew Painter are all battling injuries to begin the season.
- The Nationals and Kevin Plawecki agreed to terms on a minor league deal earlier today, and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes that the move was inspired by Israel Pineda‘s IL placement. Pineda suffered a fractured finger and was placed on the 10-day IL, leaving the Nats short some catching depth at Triple-A Rochester. Plawecki now joins Francisco Arcia on the Red Wings’ roster, providing support behind Washington’s big-league catching tandem of starter Keibert Ruiz and backup Riley Adams.
Mets Place Justin Verlander On Injured List
March 31: The Mets have now officially placed Verlander on the IL and recalled Megill, per Tim Healey of Newsday. The move is retroactive to March 28.
March 30: The Mets announced that they will place right-hander Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list with a “low-grade teres major strain.” According to the team, Verlander “will continue throwing at moderate intensity” and be reevaluated in a week. They’ll provide a further update at that time. Righty Tylor Megill will be recalled from Triple-A and take Verlander’s spot in the rotation for the time being, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
The 40-year-old Verlander’s velocity was down in his final outing of spring training, but the team hadn’t hinted at any type of injury until today’s out-of-the-blue announcement. General manager Billy Eppler tells the Mets beat that Verlander first reported discomfort last night and had an MRI this morning (Twitter link via Newsday’s Tim Healey). Verlander himself said he was working through some things that he initially attributed to routine spring discomfort (video link via DiComo). However, when he felt continued discomfort into his final bullpen of spring training and “connected the dots” with his decreased velocity in his most recent spring outing, he decided to get checked out.
Until next week’s follow-up MRI, it’ll be impossible to know just how long Verlander might be sidelined. He’s voiced confidence that it’s minor in nature and said he’d pitch if this occurred during the postseason. That’s encouraging, but even a brief absence is notable.
The Mets are already without one of Verlander’s fellow offseason signees, left-hander Jose Quintana, who will miss upwards of half the season following a bone graft procedure to remove a benign lesion from his ribcage. Quintana’s injury pushed sixth starter David Peterson into the rotation, and they’ll now already be tapping into Megill, their No. 7 option, before a single inning of their season has transpired.
Verlander lost the 2021 season to Tommy John surgery and not only returned in 2022 but improbably stormed back to ace status at age 39, winning the American League Cy Young Award on the heels of a 1.75 ERA over 175 innings. He punched out 27.8% of his opponents against a masterful 4.4% walk rate, averaging 95.1 mph on his heater along the way and generally looking like his typical, dominant self. That brilliant comeback prompted the Mets to make a two-year, $86.66MM offer, matching the annual value on the record-setting contract they’d given to co-ace Max Scherzer.
Assuming Verlander’s absence indeed proves brief, he’ll still be expected to pair with Scherzer and give the Mets two of this generation’s most accomplished arms atop the starting staff. Still, it’s surely a gut-punch to a team that moved on from now-former ace Jacob deGrom largely for durability reasons in recent years. Verlander can be placed on the IL retroactive to March 27 — three days is the largest backdating permissible under MLB rules — so he’ll be shelved for at least the first 12 days of the season.
Mets Sign Justin Verlander
The Mets have officially signed the defending AL Cy Young winner, announcing Wednesday evening they’ve inked Justin Verlander to a two-year contract with a vesting option for 2025. It’s reportedly an $86.66MM guarantee, and if Verlander pitches 140 innings in 2024, he will have a $35MM player option for 2025. Verlander will make $43.33MM in each of the two guaranteed years of the deal and has a full no-trade clause. Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.
Verlander was one of the most unique free agents in modern baseball, given his unusual circumstances. He made just one start in 2020 and missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, after which he reached free agency. At that point, he had essentially missed two full years and was going into his age-39 season. However, he won the American League Cy Young award when he was last healthy in 2019.
Despite the long layoff, Verlander had plenty of interest based on his previous track record and a spring showcase that demonstrated his health to interested teams. He eventually re-signed with the Astros on a one-year, $25MM deal with a matching $25MM player option for 2023 on the condition that Verlander reached 130 innings pitched this year. Not only did Verlander breeze past that marker, he added yet another excellent campaign to his lengthy track record. He tossed 175 innings, making a brief trip to the injured list for a calf injury. He posted a miniscule 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate, earning his third career Cy Young award. Based on that excellent campaign, he made the easy decision to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger salary. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer due to the fact that he had already received one previously in his career.
This created a free agency that was essentially unprecedented. It’s extremely rare for pitchers to pitch so well this late into their careers, especially after such a lengthy layoff. With Verlander about to turn 40 in February, he was never going to get an incredibly lengthy deal. However, he has previously expressed a desire to pitch into his mid-4os, meaning he could conceivably seek to get a multi-year deal of some kind. The closest reasonable comparison was Max Scherzer, who signed a three-year, $130MM deal to join the Mets a year ago, when he was going into his age-37 season. That came with a $43.33MM annual average value that smashed the previous record of $36MM, which was held by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.
Verlander is a few years older now than Scherzer was then, but the AAV was still seemingly a rough signpost for Verlander to aim for. Astros’ owner Jim Crane intimated that Verlander was using the Scherzer deal as a target in free agency, which was apparently beyond their comfort zone. For the Mets, their rotation was significantly impacted by free agency, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all his the open market. deGrom is already off the board, having signed with the Rangers in recent days. But they have quickly pivoted and replaced him with Verlander, who will now take deGrom’s spot as the co-ace next to Scherzer. He has reached his target by matching Scherzer with an AAV of $43.34MM, tying the all-time record. MLBTR predicted Verlander to get a three-year deal worth $120MM, an AAV of $40MM. He has instead secured the higher AAV on a shorter deal, though if he ends up triggering the option, he will get to $121.66MM over the three seasons. This is a reunion for Verlander and Scherzer, who were teammates in Detroit from 2010 to 2014.
For the Astros, they have been incredibly aggressive this winter but it seems their priorities have been elsewhere. Even without Verlander, the rotation is in good shape with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown all present as solid options. Since they apparently didn’t see eye-to-eye with Verlander, they have dedicated their resources to re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and then signing first baseman José Abreu.
The Mets have become a financial powerhouse in recent years, with new owner Steve Cohen willing to spend at or near the top of the market in order to bolster the club’s roster. Last year, they ran out an Opening Day payroll of $264MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are now set to go into 2023 with Verlander and Scherzer combining for over $86MM alone, well beyond the entire payrolls of some entire teams. Roster Resource now estimates the Mets’ payroll for next year to be $277MM, though perhaps more importantly their luxury tax estimate is $289MM. The lowest threshold of the competitive balance tax in 2023 will be $233MM, with three further tiers at $253MM, $273MM and $293MM, with the Mets now just barely under the top line. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023 and subject to increasing penalties. All spending over the lowest threshold is subject to a 30% tax for them, with extra surcharges at each subsequent tier: 12%, 45% and 60%. In other words, any spending over the $293MM tier will be subject to a 90% tax. Since they are still looking to upgrade their pitching staff and outfield, it seems almost certain that they will indeed go beyond that line.
All of that spending helped the Mets field a strong team in 2022, winning 101 games. Though that was the second-highest total in franchise history, they still were nudged into Wild Card status by the Braves. The Mets ended up with a bitter first-round defeat, losing their best-of-three series to the Padres. They are now seemingly planning to spend aggressively yet again and hope for better results in 2023. Verlander and Scherzer will take the top two spots in the rotation, with Carlos Carrasco behind them. That still leaves two spots available, with internal options like David Peterson and Tylor Megill candidates for those roles. However, the Mets still have a few months remaining in the offseason to make further moves.
Verlander was one of three pitchers considered to be the aces of this winter’s free agency, alongside deGrom and Carlos Rodón. The Mets lost deGrom to the Rangers but have now replaced him with Verlander. For teams still looking to add to the front of their rotation, they will now have to pivot for Rodon, who is reportedly looking for a six-year deal.
Former ball player Carlos Baerga reported last night on Instagram that the Mets and Verlander were nearing agreement on a two-year deal plus an option. Andy Martino of SNY reported today that an agreement was in place for a two-year deal with a vesting option, with the AAV of the deal near Scherzer’s. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported Verlander will make $43.3MM in each season, as well as the no-trade clause and the option value of $35MM. Heyman later added the 140 innings required to vest the player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the AAV is actually $43.33, matching Scherzer’s exactly.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney
The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.
Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.
That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.
Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.
This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.
Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.
As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.
Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.
Blue Jays “Remain Engaged” On Justin Verlander’s Market
Justin Verlander strongly considered joining the Blue Jays last winter, to the point that the Jays may have been the runner-up to the Astros in the race to sign the future Hall-of-Famer. Toronto’s interest is still active a year later, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the Jays “remain engaged with” Verlander in the right-hander’s latest trip to the open market.
After a Cy Young Award-winning season, Verlander’s price tag has naturally gone up. Verlander landed a two-year, $50MM deal from the Astros last offseason despite missing virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and even though 2022 was Verlander’s age-39 season. Still, Verlander was more than worth the investment, as he posted one of the finest years of his incredible career and helped lead Houston to a World Series championship.
With his 40th birthday approaching in February, Verlander is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth roughly $130MM, akin to the deal Max Scherzer received from the Mets when Scherzer was entering his age-37 campaign (Scherzer turned 38 last July). The Scherzer deal represents the highest annual average value for any contract in baseball history, so speculatively, it would seem likely that Verlander and his representatives would want to top that AAV even if by just a bit, in order to set a new benchmark.
It’s a steep asking price for any team to meet, even if Verlander is a unique case as an all-time great who is still pitching at an elite level this late into his career. Such a large AAV is a risk for a player who will be in action only once every five days, and if Verlander gets hurt or has any kind of performance dropoff, the contract could quickly start to look like an albatross.
Spending that much on Verlander would also set a new standard for the Blue Jays, whose payroll is already at a record high for the franchise. Adding a $43MM-ish salary to the ledger would also put the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history — Roster Resource projects Toronto’s current tax number at slightly over $201MM, so a big AAV for Verlander would send the Blue Jays well over the initial $233MM tax threshold.
As Davidi puts it, signing Verlander “may very well cut [the Jays] off from other significant moves.” That is no small matter for a team that several other needs to be addressed beyond the rotation, even if starting pitching is Toronto’s top need. The Jays could use some more outfield depth after trading Teoscar Hernandez, second base is a somewhat unsettled area, and the bullpen could use some more reinforcement even after the addition of Erik Swanson from the Mariners in the Hernandez swap. If ownership did allow the front office to spend up to the tax threshold, it can be argued that the extra money would be better served being spent on multiple players, rather than a single superstar in Verlander.
All this to be said, signing Verlander would still make some baseball sense for the obvious boost he’d bring to the pitching staff. Verlander, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman would become arguably the top rotation trio in the sport, Jose Berrios would be an overqualified fourth starter if he can regain his form after a mediocre 2022 season, and the Jays might feel better about Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White battling over one starting spot than entrusting two spots in the rotation to question marks. If payroll or roster needs are a concern, the Jays could look to cut some salary in other areas, plus Toronto could still trade from its catching depth to acquire more talent.
Orioles Among 8-9 Teams Interested In Carlos Rodon
Roughly eight or nine teams are known to have interest in Carlos Rodon, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). Many of the suitors are already known, as past reports have indicated the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Dodgers, and Rangers have all checked in on Rodon’s market at different points this offseason. However, Heyman also lists the Orioles as a new name in the mix for the left-hander’s services.
Baltimore has already made one notable rotation move in signing Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal earlier today. Needless to say, signing Rodon would take a much heftier financial commitment, and the first major acquisition of the Orioles’ post-rebuild era. Though past reports suggested that the O’s were wary of shopping at the very top of the pitching market, Rodon might represent something of a bridge between the “top tier” and “secondary tier,” depending on how one would define such players.
Entering his age-30 season, Rodon is considerably younger than either Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom, so Rodon might make more sense for a young Baltimore team that appears to be just entering its competitive window. As Orioles GM Mike Elias noted last month, the club has “got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.”
Baltimore hopes at least one or two of their young arms can eventually develop into being ace-level pitchers, but waiting on that development might not be too helpful for a team that wants to win in 2023. Gibson has had some quality seasons and was an All-Star just in 2021, but he struggled in his time with the Phillies, and he is more of a veteran innings-eater than a true frontline pitcher.
In other Rodon news, Heyman writes that Texas is still in on the southpaw even after already signing deGrom to a five-year, $185MM deal yesterday. As expected, the Rangers have put a heavy emphasis on rotation upgrades this winter, between signing deGrom, re-signing Martin Perez, and acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. That trio joins Jon Gray and Dane Dunning in the projected starting five, but the Rangers have been so aggressive over the last two offseasons that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them also sign Rodon. In this case, one of Dunning or Odorizzi could become a depth starter or swingman, or potentially even a trade chip.
Both the Mets and Yankees have been linked to Rodon and Verlander, with Heyman tweeting that the two New York teams seem to have differing top choices. Rodon seems to be the Yankees’ chief target, while Verlander seems like the Mets’ preferred option.
Latest On Mets’ Search For Starting Pitching
3:10PM: While the Mets are looking at several free agent pitchers, the New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that the club is also actively pursuing trade possibilities.
11:30AM: After the Mets saw Jacob deGrom leave for Texas and sign a five-year, $185MM deal with the Rangers, it seems certain they’ll move quickly to find other ways to upgrade their rotation. As Andy Martino of SNY reports, the next best pitcher available, Justin Verlander is now “front and center” for the team, and the team is “determined to land” either Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
The loss of deGrom is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Mets, but after seeing the contract he received from Texas, the opportunity to bring in Verlander on a shorter deal may well appeal to owner Steve Cohen and co. While Verlander is older, and will play the 2023 season at 40, he is coming off a dominant Cy Young-winning season which saw him hurl 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball, striking out 220 batters in the process.
A potential signing of Verlander would likely come at a higher annual salary than the $37MM deGrom received, but only over a two or three year deal, and it does seem like that is their preferred option for older pitchers. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, their offer to deGrom was around three-years, $120MM. Pivoting to Verlander on a shorter term deal would give them a bit more payroll flexibility over the long term while maintaining the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer that the Mets covet.
While the Mets have shown their financial muscle in recent years, there are other teams interested in Verlander (such as the Yankees and Dodgers) so it’s no guarantee that they land him. In that case, it seems their next option would be Rodon. The left-hander is coming off a strong platform year in San Francisco, where he tossed 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with 237 strikeouts.
Rodon is a lot younger than Verlander (he turns 30 in a week) so would likely be looking at a longer term contract. MLBTR predicted he’d land a five-year, $140MM contract, which would give him an AAV of $28MM. While it seems Rodon is their second choice to Verlander, they are very much in on him and met with him on Zoom earlier this week.
While a frontline starter to pair with Scherzer looks to be the top priority for the Mets, Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that they’re looking to also add a starter from the mid-tier of options as well. Martino cites Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana as the main options for the team in that category. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that they’ve been talking with Jameson Taillon as well.
Zach Eflin‘s three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays came in one year and $18MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction, and does suggest that the market for mid-tier starting pitching could be quite lucrative this year.
The Mets currently have Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez penciled into the rotation. The addition of either Rodon or Verlander plus a solid, mid-tier option would give them a formidable rotation, and allow them to shift two of Megill, Peterson and Hernandez into depth/long-relief roles.
Significant Gap Remains In Discussions Between Astros, Justin Verlander
The Astros and Justin Verlander remain “far apart” in discussions about a new contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The nine-time All-Star is part of a trio of top free agent starters alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.
The biggest stumbling block seems to be on the AL Cy Young winner’s desire for a third guaranteed season. Heyman writes that Verlander is seeking a deal around $130MM over three years — the same figure received by former teammate Max Scherzer from the Mets last winter. Houston owner Jim Crane similarly suggested Verlander was pointing to the Scherzer contract as precedent last month.
The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.
While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.
Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported in November that Crane was reluctant to offer more than a two-year deal in the $60-70MM range. That’s shy of the Scherzer deal both by a year and a decent amount of annual salary ($30-35MM versus $43.333MM). It’s unclear if Houston has shown any willingness to raise their proposed salary figure in the few weeks since then, but Heyman reports they’re still opposed to a three-year guarantee.
Were Verlander to leave Houston, he’d draw no shortage of interest from the league’s big-market behemoths. He has already had meetings with the Dodgers and Mets, and Heyman has previously suggested the Yankees are also in the market.
The Opener: Astros, First Basemen, Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard
With the Winter Meetings now less than a week away, the hot stove seems to be heating up. Here are some things we’re keeping our eyes on today…
1. Are The Astros And Verlander Moving On From Each Other?
The Astros just won the World Series but they’re not resting on their laurels. Despite parting ways with general manager James Click and not hiring a replacement, the club has been one of the most aggressive so far this offseason. They re-signed Rafael Montero to a three-year deal and yesterday poached Jose Abreu from the White Sox on another three-year deal. Next on the agenda seems to be their pursuit of a left-handed hitting outfielder, with the club connected to Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger in recent days. One area where the club appears to be less focused is starting pitching. A couple of weeks ago, reports indicated that Justin Verlander was looking for a deal similar to the three-year pact Max Scherzer got from the Mets, but that the Astros and owner Jim Crane weren’t willing to go to that level. Since that time, Houston has turned to other players while Verlander has met with the Mets and then also reportedly met with the Dodgers yesterday. Does this mean that his time in Houston, which began in 2017, is coming to an end?
2. Will The Run On First Basemen Continue?
The first base market has been surprisingly active so far this winter, as the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and signed Carlos Santana, and then Abreu landed with the Astros yesterday. For teams that still need help at first, the options are starting to dwindle. Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, and Luke Voit are some of the free agents still available, while Rowdy Tellez could potentially be available in a trade. The Padres, Cubs, Marlins and Guardians were all connected to Abreu in some fashion but will now need to move on to backup plans. The Rays, Twins and Giants are also teams that could pursue upgrades. As options come off the table, will those clubs act quickly before it’s too late?
3. Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard
The leaderboard for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest will be unveiled later today. As players sign, you’ll be able to track your predictions and compare yourself to other contestants, including MLBTR employees. We decided to make one change this year compared to years past, removing the “freebies.” That means that Anthony Rizzo, Clayton Kershaw, Rafael Montero, Joc Pederson, Martin Perez, and Tyler Anderson will be removed from the results and batting average calculation since they signed while the contest was open.