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Justin Verlander

Latest On Justin Verlander

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Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.

Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.

New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.

That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.

Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

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The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario.  Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar.  According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery.  Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline.  L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency.  Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere.  With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored.  In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal.  Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option.  Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal.  An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking.  If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers.  The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026.  Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal.  While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move.  The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA.  It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season.  The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024.  It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met.  I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”  Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past.  The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

Mets Have Not Approached Justin Verlander About Deadline Trade

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The Mets are expected to do some selling before the August 1 trade deadline but they have not approached Justin Verlander about any potential trade talks. That’s notable since the veteran has a full no-trade clause and would need to sign off on any deal before it could be completed.

“I would hope that if there was any chance of that, Billy would come and talk to me and that hasn’t happened,” Verlander said to Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports yesterday, referring to general manager Billy Eppler. “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here… Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”

The Mets and owner Steve Cohen ran up the biggest payroll in MLB history for this season but that hasn’t translated into the on-field results they were hoping for. They are currently 47-53, a distant fourth place in the National League East and seven games back in the Wild Card race. It was about a month ago that Cohen addressed the club’s lackluster results and said it would be “silly” to make additions. The club was 8.5 games back of the postseason at that time, and though they are slightly closer now, it still seems like they might have their sights set on 2024.

It’s expected that the club might at least look to move some impending free agents such as Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson, or players with 2024 options like Mark Canha and Adam Ottavino. Verlander would be a very different situation. Part of the club’s spending spree in the winter was signing him to a two-year, $86.67MM deal, with a $35MM player option for 2025 that’s conditional on him throwing 140 innings next year.

There are various factors in there that would make a trade complicated. One is that Verlander hasn’t quite been as dominant as last year’s Cy Young campaign. He’s allowing 3.24 earned runs per nine innings this year, a solid number in a vacuum but one that’s almost double his 1.75 mark from a year ago. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 27.8% to 20.9% this year, while his walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.2%.

Some of that might be explained by the fact that he started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain and didn’t debut until May. He has a much stronger 2.44 ERA since the start of June and a 1.69 in July alone. But the overall season in his age-40 campaign may have given some other clubs hesitation regardless, especially considering his massive salary. Then the no-trade clause adds another wrinkle, as Verlander would have to approve any deal that the Mets could line up. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, as Verlander previously approved a trade from the Tigers to the Astros in 2017, but that doesn’t necessarily mean those stars could align again.

The cash part of the deal might not be a total obstacle, at least judging by the way the Mets have behaved under Cohen. In addition to spending heavily in free agency, the club has shown a willingness to eat money in trades in order to tip the scales on the talent side. They flipped infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Angels last month, eating all of his salary in order to get a pair of prospects. They also took Chris Flexen’s deal off the hands of the Mariners in order to acquire Trevor Gott earlier this month, immediately designating Flexen for assignment.

It’s possible the Mets have had some internal discussions about doing a similar thing with Verlander’s deal, though that would clearly be in a different stratosphere. Escobar is making $9.5MM this year and only had about half of that left to be paid out at the time of his trade, while the Mets took on about $8.5MM in the Gott deal when factoring in luxury tax payments. But Verlander will still be owed about $14MM from this year’s deadline to the end of the season, plus another $43.33MM next year and the $35MM player option looming after that.

It’s entirely possible that Cohen is willing to eat that massive sum in order to obtain some prospects, since he keeps surpassing the expectations of what an owner is willing to spend. But there would be complications for the Mets beyond the money, namely the additional hole it would make in next year’s rotation. Though the club may do some selling this year, there’s nothing to indicate they’re embarking on a years-long rebuild, as they are expected to try to compete again in 2024.

As mentioned, Carrasco is an impending free agent and isn’t slated to be back even if he’s not moved at the deadline. José Quintana’s contract runs through 2024 but he’s drawn some trade interest recently. Max Scherzer also has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out opportunity this offseason.

That leaves Kodai Senga, with four more years on his contract after this one, as the most sure thing in the rotation next year. Scherzer isn’t having a typically dominant season with a 4.20 ERA, so it doesn’t seem like he’s trending towards opting out, but a strong finish to the season could always change things. Regardless, trades of Quintana and/or Verlander would further deplete the group. They have some internal options with David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but they’d obviously be better with a healthy and effective Verlander.

With the deadline now less than a week away and the complicated nature of any theoretical Verlander deal, it seems like the club doesn’t have any plans on shopping him around. That points to him likely returning to Queens in 2024, just after his 41st birthday, and hoping the Mets fare better in his second year as a Met.

Giants Interested In Justin Verlander

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With the Giants in pursuit of at least a wild card berth and maybe the NL West crown, San Francisco is looking to make some additions at the trade deadline.  At least one of those possibilities is a big name, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the Giants are one of the clubs interested if Justin Verlander opts to waive his no-trade clause to join another team.

The 45-51 Mets are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the final NL wild card slot, and four other teams sit between Philadelphia and New York in the wild card standings.  While the Mets have a 9-5 record thus far in July, they may already be in too deep a hole to mount a serious charge at the postseason, and it looks like the club will be sellers in some respect at the deadline barring a big winning streak between now and August 1.  Given the Mets’ record payroll, they might well wait until close to the last minute before the deadline to determine the extent (if at all) of their selloff, as the Amazins might only look to move pending free agents, or they could make a more significant move in dealing a controlled asset like Verlander.

One of the top players available in the 2022-23 offseason, Verlander signed a two-year, $86.66MM deal to join the Mets, and the contract also contains a $35MM vesting option for 2025 (Verlander gets that $35MM player option if he tosses at least 140 innings in 2024).  A teres major strain near the end of Spring Training delayed Verlander’s Mets debut until May 4, and while there was some rust over his first month of action, Verlander has more recently started to display his usual form.  The right-hander has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and 31 innings, though his strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (10.4%) haven’t yet normalized.

These numbers, the large salary, and Verlander’s age (40) stand out as red flags for a possible trade suitors, though these concerns are also perhaps simply outweighed by Verlander’s incredible track record.  It was just last season that Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award and helped lead the Astros to a World Series title, and even his recent outings suggest that he has plenty left in the tank.  An argument can also be made that Verlander might benefit from a change of scenery, with the ideal scenario being his last stint as a trade candidate.  Verlander was already pitching well for the Tigers in 2017 but his performance was kicked into a higher gear when Detroit moved him to Houston on August 31, resulting in Verlander playing a big part in the Astros’ first championship.

It is worth noting that Verlander waived a previous no-trade clause in his Tigers contract to accommodate that 2017 deal, though the Astros agreed to waive a $22MM vesting option that was included for the 2020 season.  If Verlander was open to a trade this summer, he might first insist that his potential $35MM in 2025 get turned into a player option right away, without the vesting threshold.  Of course, this is just speculative and Verlander might be willing to waive his no-trade protection entirely to join a contender, but it is an example of the leverage that he holds in whatever trade talks the Mets might explore with other teams.

Even taking on an extra $35MM in 2025 wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle for the Giants, who don’t have much in the way of long-term payroll commitments on their books.  Acquiring Verlander would also represent a win in the team’s longstanding search to land a face-of-the-franchise superstar, after coming up short on signing Aaron Judge in the offseason and having their deal with Carlos Correa scuttled due to medical concerns.  This isn’t the first time San Francisco has been linked to Verlander, as the Giants were one of the many teams who had scouts attending Verlander’s showcase when he was a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.

Despite the high price tag of Verlander’s contract, the length of the deal fits the Giants’ general preference for shorter-term contracts, especially for pitchers.  Most of San Francisco’s current rotation consists of veteran starters on two-year or three-year contracts, and since Alex Wood and (pending a club option) Alex Cobb might both free agents this winter, trading for Verlander would provide a top-shelf upgrade both for this year’s playoff run and at least through the 2024 campaign.

Returning to the financial aspect, it is possible that Verlander’s salary might not even be the Giants’ problem, should the Mets agree to pay most or all of his salary in order to land a better prospect return.  This would represent a larger-scale version of the strategy the Mets have already employed in earlier moves this summer (trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and temporarily acquiring Chris Flexen from the Mariners), as owner Steve Cohen has no issue in spending big, whether that means acquiring MLB talent or in using the payroll to accommodate the acquisition of premium young talent.  Considering that the Mets still plan to contend in 2024, they would naturally want some big league-ready help if they moved a front-of-the-rotation arm like Verlander.

Mets Sign Dominic Leone, Activate Justin Verlander

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11:29am: Leone’s deal with the Mets carries a $1.5MM base salary, tweets DiComo. Once prorated for the remaining number of days on the calendar, that comes out to about $1.22MM. The Mets are paying a 90% luxury tax on any payroll additions at this point. Between that prorated base and heavy tax, the signing of Leone will ultimately cost them about $2.313MM.

10:05am: The Mets have formally announced Leone’s signing. Catcher Omar Narvaez was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. New York also reinstated ace Justin Verlander from the injured list, as expected, and optioned both Muckenhirn and John Curtiss to Triple-A Syracuse. Butto has been returned to Syracuse after operating as the 27th man in yesterday’s doubleheader.

9:43am: Veteran right-hander Dominic Leone, who opted out of a minor league deal with the Rangers earlier this week, has a locker set up in the Mets’ clubhouse this morning, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Leone is represented by ACES.

The team hasn’t made a formal announcement just yet and will need to clear a 40-man spot, but Leone is in the clubhouse and in uniform already. Lefty Zach Muckenhirn has been optioned to Triple-A to open a spot for Leone on the active roster, per DiComo, but the team will still need to announce the corresponding 40-man move.

Leone, 31, opened the season with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate and wasn’t added to Texas’ big league roster by his opt-out date — despite an outstanding run to begin the year. In 11 2/3 innings at Round Rock, he posted a 1.59 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio and 46.7% ground-ball rate.

This will be Leone’s seventh big league team and the tenth Major League season in which he’s pitched. The right-hander spent the 2021-22 seasons with the Giants, for whom he notched a tidy 2.71 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate and elevated 10.4% walk rate over the life of 103 innings. Leone’s fastball sat 95.5 mph in his two years with the Giants, and he delivered impressive swinging-strike and chase rates of 15.7% and 38.4%, respectively.

On the whole, Leone has 356 innings of Major League experience. He’s logged a 3.69 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 1.06 HR/9 mark in that time. ERA alternatives like FIP and SIERA both peg him at exactly 3.91, and he’s tallied 53 holds and seven saves in his career, so he’s no stranger to pitching in leverage spots if need be.

The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after yesterday’s game, which saw long reliever Jose Butto throw 42 pitches, right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis throw 36 pitches and setup man Adam Ottavino toss 24 pitches. With that trio likely unavailable and Muckenhirn optioned to Syracuse, the Mets were a bit light on relief options. Leone will give them a sixth fresh arm to slot into the bullpen for today’s game, and given his broader track record, he figures to have a decent chance at carving out a spot in the ’pen for the remainder of the season if he performs well.

The Tigers’ Last Chance To Get Something From The Justin Verlander Trade

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There once was a time when Justin Verlander had only played for the Tigers. He was drafted by them with the second overall pick in 2004 and then cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in the years that followed. He twice signed contracts that extended the club’s control over his services, once in 2010 and another in 2013. That latter contract ran through his age-36 season and was signed while the club was one of the best in the league. They were fresh off a World Series appearance in 2012 and would eventually get to a four-year streak of winning the AL Central in 2014. It wouldn’t have been outlandish to expect him to be a Tiger for life.

However, the fortunes of the franchise changed in the years after that, as they slipped into the basement of the division in 2015. They bounced back with an 86-win showing in 2016 but still missed the playoffs, then were not doing so great again in 2017. It was decided that it was time to turn things over, with the Tigers making two huge deals at the waiver deadline that year. They first traded Justin Upton to the Angels and then Verlander to the Astros. The latter deal was Verlander, a player to be named later and cash for prospects Franklin Pérez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers. The PTBNL was later reported as outfielder Juan Ramirez.

It’s now been over five years since that franchise-altering pivot. The Astros went on to win their first World Series a few months after acquiring Verlander, though that title is now forever asterisked in the minds of many baseball fans due to the trashcan-banging scandal. But subsequent contracts kept Verlander in Houston through 2022 as the club continued to be among the best in the league. They made the ALCS in each of those seasons, making it to the World Series again in 2019 and 2021 before winning their second title last year.

As for the Tigers, they have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, continually rebuilding during that entire stretch. That 86-win showing in 2016 is still their last winning season. They’ve also reaped little from those future-focused moves back in 2017. Right-hander Grayson Long, who came over in the Upton deal, topped out at Double-A and retired in 2019. The PTBNL in the deal was later reported as Elvin Rodríguez, who made seven appearances with the Tigers last year but was outrighted at season’s end and is now with the Rays on a minor league deal.

As for the Verlander deal, Pérez was generally considered the headliner at the time as he was a highly-touted prospect then. Baseball America had him in the #54 slot of their top 100 at the start of 2017 and bumped him to #35 going into 2018. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit him badly, mostly in the shoulder. He was only able to throw 19 1/3 innings in the minors in 2018 and 7 2/3 in 2019. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then shoulder surgery wiped out 2021 for Pérez. He was released by the Tigers and re-signed, eventually tossing 25 1/3 innings in the Complex League last year but with a 9.59 ERA. He appears to still be in the organization but it’s hard to count on him for anything now after so much missed development time. He’s 25 years old and has yet to crack Double-A, outside of a brief stint at that level prior to the trade.

Cameron was also a highly-touted young outfielder, having cracked BA’s top 100 list in 2016. Though he had slipped off by the time of the trade, he was still an exciting young player. He made his way to the big leagues but couldn’t do much with the opportunity. He got into 73 major league games over the past three years but hit just .201/.266/.330 and struck out in 31.6% of his plate appearances. He was put on waivers in November, getting claimed by the Orioles and subsequently outrighted.

That leaves Rogers as the last hope for the Tigers to salvage the deal in some way. Arguably seen as the least significant piece of the deal at the time, Rogers was Houston’s #20 prospect at Baseball America coming into 2017. The catcher hasn’t been able to provide much value to the Tigers so far, but that’s not really his fault. He required Tommy John surgery in September of 2021, which wiped out his entire 2022 season. Prior to that, he was showing some positive signs in a small sample. He got into 38 games in 2021 and hit six home runs. Despite striking out in 36.2% of his plate appearances, his .239/.306/.496 was above average, resulting in a 116 wRC+.

He’s now back from that long layoff and showing encouraging signs in a small sample again. His 28.3% strikeout rate this year is still high but it’s an improvement from his previous work. He’s also nearly doubled his walked rate from 8.7% in 2021 to 15.2% this year. His .237/.370/.447 batting line on the season amounts to a 135 wRC+.

This is a tiny sample of 46 plate appearances in 15 games and will surely change. However, Rogers doesn’t need to hit like a superstar to be valuable since he’s considered a strong defensive backstop. In his limited time in the big leagues, he has four Defensive Runs Saved. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him negative grades for his framing prior to the Tommy John but he’s in the positive range so far this year. He’s thrown out 16 of 39 attempted base stealers in his career, a 41% rate that’s well above average, though he’s nabbed just one of six this year.

Rogers’ career thus far is so limited that it’s hard to draw any meaningful conclusions. Thanks to the lost season, he has just 88 major league games under his belt despite now being 28 years old. But given his reputation as a strong defensive catcher, even something near league average offense would make him a useful contributor. He’s shown the potential to be more than that, hitting 12 home runs already in barely half a season of cumulative work. He’s yet to reach arbitration but is slated to get there this winter and is on pace to reach free agency after 2026.

It’s highly likely that the Verlander trade will eventually be seen as a big miss for the Tigers overall. Fans had to watch an iconic player win two rings elsewhere while the highly-touted young players they got in return couldn’t meet expectations and the team posted miserable results overall. But if Rogers can keep serving as a solid defender behind the plate who launches a ball over the wall every once in a while, he can keep it from going down as an utter disaster.

NL East Notes: Braves, Marlins, Mets

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Braves fans got some positive injury news yesterday, as manager Brian Snitker told reporters, including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitutional, that both closer Raisel Iglesias and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are making progress in their rehab processes.

Iglesias, who the Braves acquired from the Angels at last year’s trade deadline, has been on the injured list since the start of the season due to shoulder inflammation. The 33-year-old righty has been among the game’s best closers for several years now, with a 2.75 ERA (160 ERA+) in 448 1/3 innings with a 30.7% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate since the start of the 2016 season. Iglesias started his Braves career in particularly dominant fashion, with a microscopic 0.34 ERA in 26 1/3 innings down the stretch following last summer’s trade.

Per Toscano, Iglesias is scheduled to throw live batting practice on Monday, which could indicate that a rehab assignment is a possibility in the near future. A return to action for Iglesias would be fantastic news for the Braves, who are currently relying on A.J. Minter, Dylan Lee, and Jesse Chavez in late inning situations.

Meanwhile, d’Arnaud has been on the 7-day concussion IL since he was involved in a collision at home plate earlier this month. The 34-year-old catcher, who pairs with Sean Murphy to create perhaps the best catching tandem in the sport for the Braves when healthy, was slashing .333/.333/.424 in eight games prior to going on the IL. He took a step forward in his rehab yesterday, catching a bullpen session in addition to hitting. While d’Arnaud has been on the shelf, Chadwick Tromp has backed up Murphy behind the plate.

More from around the NL East…

  • Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara told reporters today, including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, that he expects to pitch against Atlanta on Wednesday if everything goes well after skipping his last start due to biceps tendinitis. Before he gets to that point, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner will play catch today and throw a bullpen session tomorrow. Alcantara has struggled to open the season with a 5.47 ERA in 24 2/3 innings and a reduced 19.8% strikeout rate, though with only 43.7% of baserunners stranded to this point in the season, it’s easy to see how the 27-year-old ace has been unlucky in the early going this season, as punctuated by his 3.52 FIP being nearly two runs lower than his ERA.
  • Sticking with 2022 Cy Young Award winners, Mets manager Buck Showalter tells reporters (including The Athletic’s Will Sammon) that ace Justin Verlander is set to throw a live bullpen session today. Verlander, who has been sidelined with a shoulder strain since the start of the season, signed with the Mets this past offseason on a two-year, $86.66MM deal. The Mets rotation has been decimated in the early going this season, with both Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco joining Verlander on the injured list, while fellow ace Max Scherzer serves a 10-game suspension for foreign substance use during which the Mets cannot replace him on the active roster. [UPDATE: as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, Verlander threw 43 pitches over his three-inning bullpen session. The Mets plan for Verlander to make a minor league rehab start on Friday, with an eye towards Verlander being activated from the IL to pitch during the Mets’ series in Detroit on May 2-4.]

Mets Place Carlos Carrasco On Injured List

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The Mets announced this evening that starter Carlos Carrasco is headed to the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 16, due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. New York recalled reliever Jeff Brigham from Triple-A Syracuse to take the active roster spot. The club also announced that reliever Dennis Santana cleared waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse after being designated for assignment over the weekend.

Manager Buck Showalter told the team’s beat that Carrasco will head back to New York to undergo imaging (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). It’s not yet clear what the issue is or how severe it might be, but it’s a concerning development for a 36-year-old pitcher. Carrasco has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons as a Met. He lost a chunk of the first half in 2021 to a hamstring strain and missed a bit of time last year with an oblique issue. He’s generally avoided elbow concerns in recent years, though he did undergo Tommy John surgery over a decade ago while playing for Cleveland.

The start to the season hasn’t gone well for the veteran righty. He’s been tagged for 13 runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts. Carrasco has eight strikeouts and walks apiece and has already surrendered a trio of home runs. He’s also battled a velocity dip. Carrasco’s average fastball speed has checked in at 91.3 MPH; that’s down nearly two ticks from last season’s 93.2 MPH average. He certainly hasn’t appeared to be at full strength and the IL stint reflects that.

Carrasco joins Justin Verlander and José Quintana as expected rotation members on the shelf. Quintana won’t be back until midseason but Verlander should be able to make his team debut before too long. Verlander is tentatively scheduled to throw a live batting practice session on Sunday, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’ll be on a five-day throwing program from that point, with a minor league rehab start the anticipated next step. That points towards a potential MLB return in the first week of May if all goes as planned.

In the meantime, the Mets will have to plug another rotation vacancy. Injuries to Verlander and Quintana forced the team to call upon David Peterson and Tylor Megill. The likes of José Butto and Joey Lucchesi project as the next line of defense. Butto was already called up for a spot start against the A’s over the weekend. He was promptly optioned out and has to spend 15 days in the minors unless he’s replacing someone who lands on the IL. Considering he wasn’t the corresponding promotion with Carrasco’s placement, that might point towards Lucchesi getting a call later this week.

Santana lost his roster spot as part of the shuffling to accommodate Butto’s promotion last Saturday. The sinkerballer has bounced around via trade or on waivers since the start of the offseason. He’d made seven appearances for the Mets this year, allowing six runs over 7 2/3 frames. Santana has over three years of major league service time and has the right to refuse an outright assignment. Doing so would require forfeiting his $1MM salary, however, so it’s likely he’ll report to Syracuse and try to pitch his way back onto the MLB radar. He’d reach minor league free agency at season’s end if he’s not first added to the 40-man roster.

Pitching Notes: Woodruff, Verlander, Wainwright

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Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff had an MRI on his right shoulder and remains shut down until doctors map out a path forward, manager Craig Counsell relayed to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The team has already placed Woodruff on the IL.

There was initial hope that it’d just be a short stint on the IL, and that hasn’t been ruled out yet, but obviously the uncertainty over how best to proceed is a little concerning. Woodruff made another strong start to the season, giving up just one earned run across two starts and 11 1/3 innings. An injury for any length of time would be a significant blow to the Brewers, who have made a strong start to the season.

Woodruff has blossomed into one of the game’s better starting pitchers in recent years, compiling a 2.97 ERA across 94 starts since the 2019 season. While he did miss some time for a high ankle sprain last year, he’s never missed time in the big leagues with an arm-related injury.

Here’s a few more notes:

  • Sonja Chen of MLB.com relays an update from Mets manager Buck Showalter on injured starter Justin Verlander. The veteran is scheduled for a bullpen in Florida, and then if that goes well he’ll throw another side before facing live batters. Once he’s ticked off those, he could be ready for a Mets debut. Verlander hit the shelf after suffering a low-grade strain of the teres major muscle towards the end of spring training. While there’s no firm timetable for his return just yet, it does appear that Mets fans won’t have to wait too much longer to see their star off-season recruit make his debut. The 40-year old Verlander signed with the Mets on a two-year, $86.67MM deal this winter after making 28 starts of 1.75 ERA ball for the Astros last year.
  • John Denton of MLB.com tweets that Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright threw a 50-pitch simulated game prior to last night’s game against the Pirates at Busch Stadium. Wainwright is working his way back from a groin injury suffered in spring training. It’s not entirely clear what the next step for Wainwright is, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go and make a rehab start at some point. The 41-year old has remained a steady presence in the Cardinals’ rotation, making 32 starts in each of the past two seasons and working to a combined 3.37 ERA. Jake Woodward made a strong start against the Pirates last night, but he would appear the likeliest to drop out of the rotation once Wainwright returns.
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