Padres, Braves Have Been Involved On Verlander; Astros Still Perceived As Likelier Landing Spot
1:40pm: The Padres are out on Verlander at this point, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. The Giants, who briefly threw their hat into the ring, have also backed out of the bidding.
11:55am: Feinsand reports that the Astros were close to a Verlander deal last night but that “things have really cooled down” today. He says the sticking point in the talks was the players going to the Mets, not the financials.
11:46am: Heyman tweets that while the Braves have been involved on Verlander, they’re not strongly in the mix at present.
11:14am: With just over six hours to go before the deadline, rumors about Justin Verlander’s future continue to swirl. The Astros, Dodgers and Orioles have all been linked to the three-time Cy Young winner. They’re not the only clubs with interest, however.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) the Braves are also in conversations on Verlander. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Padres are involved, though it’s not clear how serious San Diego’s interest is. The Friars also like Detroit southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, suggests Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).
Even with the revelations of Atlanta and San Diego being at least on the periphery of the Verlander market, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the previously-known trio of Houston, L.A. and Baltimore appear to be leading the market. Andy Martino of SNY and Bob Nightengale of USA Today both reiterate that Houston appears the likeliest landing spot.
Neither Atlanta nor San Diego has a strict rotation need. The Braves have some uncertainty towards the back of the staff at present, relying on recent waiver claim Yonny Chirinos to start games. Yet they’re a virtual lock to secure the NL East title and a first-round bye given their 11-game lead in the standings. Any additions at this point are geared more towards the playoffs. Max Fried will soon be back to join Spencer Strider at the top of the rotation. Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton are each playoff-caliber starters, while Kyle Wright could also factor into the plans in October.
Still, the Braves’ excellent roster at least affords them the flexibility to kick the tires on luxury buys. Verlander has an accomplished postseason track record. He’s not pitching at last year’s Cy Young level, but he carries a 3.15 ERA over 16 starts this season. It seems an open question whether the Mets would actually pull the trigger on a move to Atlanta, however. New York flipped David Robertson to Miami, so they’re not categorically opposed to intra-division trades. Yet Robertson is an impending free agent during a season in which the Mets are more or less conceding their playoff chances. Dealing Verlander, under contract for next year, to a club with which New York will ostensibly try to compete for a division title in 2024, would be a much bigger move.
San Diego seemingly checks in on every big-name player available. The Padres are reportedly targeting position player depth and bullpen help, which indeed seem like bigger concerns than the starting rotation. San Diego’s starters lead the majors with a 3.63 ERA and rank seventh with a 24% strikeout rate. With Blake Snell and Seth Lugo (by likely declining a player option) seemingly a few months from free agency, there’s an argument for the Friars looking for rotation help controllable beyond this season. That said, their reported diligence on Verlander and Rodriguez seem more like the Friars’ general approach of staying involved on any star.
Verlander is owed around $14.2MM on his record salary through season’s end. He’s due $43.333MM next year, while his contract contains a $35MM vesting/player option for 2025. The Mets would have to pay down some portion of the salary. They’re clearly amenable to doing so, though reports have suggested they value Verlander more highly than they did Max Scherzer — whose contract they paid down to $22.5MM over the next two seasons to land Luisangel Acuña from Texas.
Orioles, Mets Have Discussed Justin Verlander
Despite possessing the American League’s best record, the Orioles have had a quiet deadline. They rolled the dice on Shintaro Fujinami‘s recent improvements and triple-digit heater, hoping to deepen an already strong bullpen, but the rotation — arguably their top need — has gone unaddressed. The O’s were linked to multiple starters who have since been traded elsewhere, but other targets (e.g. Michael Lorenzen, Rich Hill) remain available. And, Baltimore clearly hasn’t ruled out a much higher-profile addition. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the O’s are “on the periphery” of the Justin Verlander market, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the O’s are among the teams with whom the Mets are actively discussing Verlander. Morosi adds that the Orioles and Tigers are also talking — presumably about Lorenzen and/or Eduardo Rodriguez.
At least on paper, it’s hard to find a better fit for Verlander than the Orioles. Baltimore has the American League’s best record, is as deep in young talent as virtually any team in the game, and has a blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll. Perhaps no contending club could more easily accommodate the remaining $14.444MM on Verlander’s 2023 salary and the $43.333MM he’s owed in 2024. His contract also contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if Verlander throws 140 innings next year. That’s been an understandable hurdle in talks with multiple clubs; Verlander will pitch the 2025 season at age 42.
The only guaranteed contract on Baltimore’s books in 2024 is backup catcher James McCann, and the Mets are picking up all but $2.5MM of next year’s salary as part of the trade that sent him to the Orioles. Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, John Means, Tyler Wells, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle are among the many notable members of the Orioles’ arbitration class, but it’s nonetheless as close to a pristine payroll outlook as you’ll find for a contending club.
Meanwhile, starting pitching has long been reported to be the Orioles’ top need. It’s easy enough to understand why. Good as the team’s overall record is, their rotation’s 4.48 ERA ranks 16th in the Majors. With the exception of veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson, the bulk of the Baltimore staff is approaching or has already exceeded 2023’s innings total. Dean Kremer is just 15 innings shy of last year’s total. Kyle Bradish is 36 innings shy of his own 2023 total. Wells and Grayson Rodriguez have already topped last season’s workloads.
The Mets traded one high-priced, future Hall of Famer over the weekend when they sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers, paid down all but $22.5MM of the salary he was still owed, and acquired top prospect Luisangel Acuna in return. They’re reported to hold Verlander in even higher regard, setting both a higher prospect asking price and showing less willingness to pay down significant money.
The Verlander market is generally thought to be accelerating, and there’s a real chance he’s traded today. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets’ Verlander talks “picked up steam” late last night with multiple clubs. The Astros, according to Martino, have made a formal offer. At least one other team has done the same, and there are two to three more clubs also involved. Jon Heyman of the New York Post dusted off a time-honored trade deadline favorite this morning, tweeting that there’s at least one “mystery team” beyond the previously reported Astros and Dodgers.
That, of course, could be the Orioles, but given Verlander’s status and the league-wide need for starting pitching, it’s only natural to assume others are involved. The Reds, Angels and D-backs have all been rumored to be in the market for varying levels of rotation help as well, and virtually no major name hits the trade market without the Padres throwing their hat into the ring as well. None of those teams has been directly connected to Verlander, to be clear, but the day is young.
Mets, Astros Continue To Discuss Justin Verlander
8:39pm: Andy Martino of SNY tweets that a deal between the Astros and Mets is not imminent, though it’s certainly possible talks could yet pick up steam.
7:14pm: The Astros and Mets continue to discuss possible Justin Verlander trades, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Rosenthal writes that New York is trying to deal the future Hall of Famer before tomorrow evening’s deadline. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that talks between Houston and the Mets have accelerated within the past day.
It’s unclear how likely a deal is to pull off. Nightengale notes the Dodgers remain in the picture, for one. There’s also the matter of Verlander’s hefty contract and full no-trade rights, although the reigning AL Cy Young winner is certainly plenty familiar with Houston. Astros GM Dana Brown said on MLB Network Radio this afternoon the club was no longer prioritizing adding to the rotation; Rosenthal writes that Houston owner Jim Crane could get involved in discussions to try to bring Verlander back though.
More broadly, Chandler Rome of the Athletic tweets that Houston is now again focused on the rotation. The Astros expect to welcome José Urquidy back from the 60-day injured list this week, reducing the need for a depth pickup. Of course, a Verlander acquisition would be far more than that.
It’s a fascinating situation two days after the Mets traded Max Scherzer to the Rangers. Verlander could well follow his former teammate out of Queens, and it seems there’s genuine interest on the Astros’ part in making them direct competitors for an AL West title. Verlander has a 3.15 ERA despite an average 21% strikeout rate through 16 starts. He’s making $43.333MM in each of the next two seasons and has a $35MM vesting/player option for the 2025 campaign. The Mets would certainly have to kick in some money, as they did with Scherzer, but figure to be open to doing so as they look to continue adding upside to the farm system.
Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Justin Verlander
Following the Mets’ decision to deal future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the Rangers over the weekend, eyes around the baseball world have turned toward the other Cooperstown-bound veteran in Queens: Justin Verlander. Previous reporting had connected the Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Reds to the veteran ace, though the Astros and Dodgers have appeared to be the frontrunners for Verlander’s services, in the event that he’s moved before the deadline.
More recent reports have echoed that sentiment, with SNY’s Andy Martino indicating that “three or four” clubs, including the Dodgers and Astros, have engaged with the Mets on Verlander, though no talks have progressed to the point of an agreement on specific players. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez expanded on the Dodgers’ reported interest with some specifics on negotiations between the sides.
Per Gonzalez, a deal between the sides is “unlikely” given the complicating factor of Verlander’s 2025 vesting option, which would convert to a player option if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. That being said, Gonzalez notes that the Mets were willing to pay down the majority of the money Scherzer was owed in order to extract a top prospect in the former of infielder Luisangel Acuna from the Rangers. Given the Mets’ dearth of top pitching prospects and the access LA enjoys, Gonzalez indicates that the likeliest path toward a Verlander deal would be the Dodgers putting together a prospect package of young pitchers that entices the Mets to pay down a significant portion of his salary.
Such a package would certainly be feasible for the Dodgers to put together, if they so chose. Five of the club’s top ten prospects are pitchers, per MLB Pipeline, and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Pepiot are either already in or approaching the majors. That list also doesn’t include young hurler Bobby Miller, who was the club’s top pitching prospect before he became a key cog in the 2023 club’s rotation. While the Dodgers surely wouldn’t consider moving Miller, dealing from the aforementioned trio of prospects could be a reasonable course of action for the Dodgers, perhaps paired with a lower-level arm like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack.
With other top-tier options like Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, and Jordan Montgomery having already moved this deadline, it’s possible that the Dodgers may be running out of alternative options in their pursuit of rotation upgrades. Gonzalez indicates that the club is only expected to add further pitching if it’s an impactful addition, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Marcus Stroman seemingly unlikely to move, Verlander and Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez could be the only arms left of that caliber.
Latest On Justin Verlander
7:36PM: The Braves have also “checked” on Verlander but aren’t currently in talks with the Mets, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets.
5:50PM: Following the Mets’ trade of Max Scherzer to the Rangers led to further increased speculation about a trade of fellow high-priced, multi-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Several teams have been tied to the nine-time All-Star, including the Rangers, Astros and Dodgers. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets value Verlander much differently than Scherzer. They’ve placed a higher asking price in terms of prospects and aren’t willing to pay down salary to the same extent they were in order to move Scherzer.
Astros fans may be hoping for a reunion with Verlander, who won his third career Cy Young Award in Houston last season, but it doesn’t appear that’s likely. Astros GM Dana Brown tells Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that his team isn’t in the market for a starting pitcher right now and is instead focused more on the back of the bullpen and a left-handed bat (Twitter link). Per Martino, the Astros indeed checked in on Verlander, but the teams were “nowhere close” to agreeing on his value.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale hears similarly, writing that while Houston and New York have indeed discussed a Verlander deal, an Astros source tells him they’d likely require the Mets to pay down a “significant” portion of Verlander’s salary this year and next. Verlander’s $35MM vesting option for the 2025 season, which triggers upon reaching 140 innings pitched next year, is another hang-up in a potential deal. All of that complicates a potential Verlander/Astros reunion, which clouds the water on a trade in general. Like Scherzer, Verlander has a full no-trade clause — and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Astros are “perhaps” the team for which he’s most willing to waive that protection.
Broadly speaking, everything will hinge on Verlander’s preferences. Via SNY’s Steve Gelbs (Twitter link, with video), the 40-year-old righty said following Sunday’s game that his openness to a trade “largely depends on how the organization views next year,” adding that he’s “committed to trying to win a championship” in Queens but would be more open to waiving his no-trade protection if Mets decision-makers feel it’s best to take a step back in 2024. The Mets will have plenty of rotation questions with Scherzer now in Arlington and Carlos Carrasco hitting free agency at season’s end. Presently, Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only surefire starters signed into 2024. Depth options like David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto all remain on hand as well.
Early indications are that the Mets don’t view this as a large-scale teardown. GM Billy Eppler plainly said after yesterday’s Scherzer trade that he does not view the current step back as a rebuild (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) They’ll have ample financial firepower to pursue new arms to fill out the rotation in the offseason — with a particularly deep crop of free agent starters available. Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto are among the names in the upcoming class of free agent arms.
The Mets already have nearly $220MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books, per Roster Resource — a number that includes the $26.833MM they’ll pay Scherzer. (Texas is picking up a reported $16.5MM of next year’s salary.) That’s before factoring in Brooks Raley‘s $6.5MM club option or arbitration raises for a group of ten players, headlined by first baseman Pete Alonso. Owner Steve Cohen trotted out a record payroll of more than $350MM this season, so clearly the capacity for spending is there — it’ll just be a matter of whether the Mets want to spend to that extent again after this year’s efforts fell flat in notable fashion. Trading Verlander would radically lower that 2024 financial outlay, but it’d also only create another hole that the Mets would likely need to fill in the rotation (likely via free agency).
For now, they’ll have about 48 hours to see if anyone’s willing to meet their asking price on Verlander — and then to gauge whether the right-hander is amenable to the deal.
Latest On Justin Verlander
Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.
Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.
New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.
That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.
Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer
The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.
Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.
Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.
Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.
As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).
Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.
Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.
Mets Have Not Approached Justin Verlander About Deadline Trade
The Mets are expected to do some selling before the August 1 trade deadline but they have not approached Justin Verlander about any potential trade talks. That’s notable since the veteran has a full no-trade clause and would need to sign off on any deal before it could be completed.
“I would hope that if there was any chance of that, Billy would come and talk to me and that hasn’t happened,” Verlander said to Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports yesterday, referring to general manager Billy Eppler. “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here… Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”
The Mets and owner Steve Cohen ran up the biggest payroll in MLB history for this season but that hasn’t translated into the on-field results they were hoping for. They are currently 47-53, a distant fourth place in the National League East and seven games back in the Wild Card race. It was about a month ago that Cohen addressed the club’s lackluster results and said it would be “silly” to make additions. The club was 8.5 games back of the postseason at that time, and though they are slightly closer now, it still seems like they might have their sights set on 2024.
It’s expected that the club might at least look to move some impending free agents such as Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson, or players with 2024 options like Mark Canha and Adam Ottavino. Verlander would be a very different situation. Part of the club’s spending spree in the winter was signing him to a two-year, $86.67MM deal, with a $35MM player option for 2025 that’s conditional on him throwing 140 innings next year.
There are various factors in there that would make a trade complicated. One is that Verlander hasn’t quite been as dominant as last year’s Cy Young campaign. He’s allowing 3.24 earned runs per nine innings this year, a solid number in a vacuum but one that’s almost double his 1.75 mark from a year ago. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 27.8% to 20.9% this year, while his walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.2%.
Some of that might be explained by the fact that he started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain and didn’t debut until May. He has a much stronger 2.44 ERA since the start of June and a 1.69 in July alone. But the overall season in his age-40 campaign may have given some other clubs hesitation regardless, especially considering his massive salary. Then the no-trade clause adds another wrinkle, as Verlander would have to approve any deal that the Mets could line up. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, as Verlander previously approved a trade from the Tigers to the Astros in 2017, but that doesn’t necessarily mean those stars could align again.
The cash part of the deal might not be a total obstacle, at least judging by the way the Mets have behaved under Cohen. In addition to spending heavily in free agency, the club has shown a willingness to eat money in trades in order to tip the scales on the talent side. They flipped infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Angels last month, eating all of his salary in order to get a pair of prospects. They also took Chris Flexen‘s deal off the hands of the Mariners in order to acquire Trevor Gott earlier this month, immediately designating Flexen for assignment.
It’s possible the Mets have had some internal discussions about doing a similar thing with Verlander’s deal, though that would clearly be in a different stratosphere. Escobar is making $9.5MM this year and only had about half of that left to be paid out at the time of his trade, while the Mets took on about $8.5MM in the Gott deal when factoring in luxury tax payments. But Verlander will still be owed about $14MM from this year’s deadline to the end of the season, plus another $43.33MM next year and the $35MM player option looming after that.
It’s entirely possible that Cohen is willing to eat that massive sum in order to obtain some prospects, since he keeps surpassing the expectations of what an owner is willing to spend. But there would be complications for the Mets beyond the money, namely the additional hole it would make in next year’s rotation. Though the club may do some selling this year, there’s nothing to indicate they’re embarking on a years-long rebuild, as they are expected to try to compete again in 2024.
As mentioned, Carrasco is an impending free agent and isn’t slated to be back even if he’s not moved at the deadline. José Quintana‘s contract runs through 2024 but he’s drawn some trade interest recently. Max Scherzer also has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out opportunity this offseason.
That leaves Kodai Senga, with four more years on his contract after this one, as the most sure thing in the rotation next year. Scherzer isn’t having a typically dominant season with a 4.20 ERA, so it doesn’t seem like he’s trending towards opting out, but a strong finish to the season could always change things. Regardless, trades of Quintana and/or Verlander would further deplete the group. They have some internal options with David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but they’d obviously be better with a healthy and effective Verlander.
With the deadline now less than a week away and the complicated nature of any theoretical Verlander deal, it seems like the club doesn’t have any plans on shopping him around. That points to him likely returning to Queens in 2024, just after his 41st birthday, and hoping the Mets fare better in his second year as a Met.
Giants Interested In Justin Verlander
With the Giants in pursuit of at least a wild card berth and maybe the NL West crown, San Francisco is looking to make some additions at the trade deadline. At least one of those possibilities is a big name, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the Giants are one of the clubs interested if Justin Verlander opts to waive his no-trade clause to join another team.
The 45-51 Mets are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the final NL wild card slot, and four other teams sit between Philadelphia and New York in the wild card standings. While the Mets have a 9-5 record thus far in July, they may already be in too deep a hole to mount a serious charge at the postseason, and it looks like the club will be sellers in some respect at the deadline barring a big winning streak between now and August 1. Given the Mets’ record payroll, they might well wait until close to the last minute before the deadline to determine the extent (if at all) of their selloff, as the Amazins might only look to move pending free agents, or they could make a more significant move in dealing a controlled asset like Verlander.
One of the top players available in the 2022-23 offseason, Verlander signed a two-year, $86.66MM deal to join the Mets, and the contract also contains a $35MM vesting option for 2025 (Verlander gets that $35MM player option if he tosses at least 140 innings in 2024). A teres major strain near the end of Spring Training delayed Verlander’s Mets debut until May 4, and while there was some rust over his first month of action, Verlander has more recently started to display his usual form. The right-hander has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and 31 innings, though his strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (10.4%) haven’t yet normalized.
These numbers, the large salary, and Verlander’s age (40) stand out as red flags for a possible trade suitors, though these concerns are also perhaps simply outweighed by Verlander’s incredible track record. It was just last season that Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award and helped lead the Astros to a World Series title, and even his recent outings suggest that he has plenty left in the tank. An argument can also be made that Verlander might benefit from a change of scenery, with the ideal scenario being his last stint as a trade candidate. Verlander was already pitching well for the Tigers in 2017 but his performance was kicked into a higher gear when Detroit moved him to Houston on August 31, resulting in Verlander playing a big part in the Astros’ first championship.
It is worth noting that Verlander waived a previous no-trade clause in his Tigers contract to accommodate that 2017 deal, though the Astros agreed to waive a $22MM vesting option that was included for the 2020 season. If Verlander was open to a trade this summer, he might first insist that his potential $35MM in 2025 get turned into a player option right away, without the vesting threshold. Of course, this is just speculative and Verlander might be willing to waive his no-trade protection entirely to join a contender, but it is an example of the leverage that he holds in whatever trade talks the Mets might explore with other teams.
Even taking on an extra $35MM in 2025 wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle for the Giants, who don’t have much in the way of long-term payroll commitments on their books. Acquiring Verlander would also represent a win in the team’s longstanding search to land a face-of-the-franchise superstar, after coming up short on signing Aaron Judge in the offseason and having their deal with Carlos Correa scuttled due to medical concerns. This isn’t the first time San Francisco has been linked to Verlander, as the Giants were one of the many teams who had scouts attending Verlander’s showcase when he was a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.
Despite the high price tag of Verlander’s contract, the length of the deal fits the Giants’ general preference for shorter-term contracts, especially for pitchers. Most of San Francisco’s current rotation consists of veteran starters on two-year or three-year contracts, and since Alex Wood and (pending a club option) Alex Cobb might both free agents this winter, trading for Verlander would provide a top-shelf upgrade both for this year’s playoff run and at least through the 2024 campaign.
Returning to the financial aspect, it is possible that Verlander’s salary might not even be the Giants’ problem, should the Mets agree to pay most or all of his salary in order to land a better prospect return. This would represent a larger-scale version of the strategy the Mets have already employed in earlier moves this summer (trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and temporarily acquiring Chris Flexen from the Mariners), as owner Steve Cohen has no issue in spending big, whether that means acquiring MLB talent or in using the payroll to accommodate the acquisition of premium young talent. Considering that the Mets still plan to contend in 2024, they would naturally want some big league-ready help if they moved a front-of-the-rotation arm like Verlander.