Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte
The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…
- It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
- Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
- As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.
NL West Notes: Marte, Rockies, Giants, Gott
The Diamondbacks will take steps to try and keep Ketel Marte healthier in 2020, GM Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, including “getting him off his feet at various points in time” during the season, and investigating “offseason/spring training type of regimens, physically, that we can help him strengthen to put himself in a better position coming into the season.” Something that doesn’t appear to be on the table is moving Marte back to second base, as while Hazen didn’t entirely rule out the idea, “I think how he fits onto the major-league team is a tremendous luxury.” Marte’s transition to regular center field duty went swimmingly from a defensive standpoint, as he posted an excellent +7 Defensive Runs Saved and +10.8 UZR/150 over 687 2/3 innings at the position. He also saw significant action at second base and a bit of time at shortstop, so between that versatility and a huge offensive performance (32 homers and a .329/.389/.592 slash line), Marte was one of the most valuable players of 2019 —- his 7.1 fWAR ranks sixth in all of baseball.
There was a bit of an injury cost, however, as Marte was shut down last week due to a stress reaction in his back. While the stress reaction wasn’t terribly serious, keeping the superstar healthy is of the utmost importance for the D’Backs. Hazen said the Diamondbacks won’t be “closing ourselves off to what the offseason will bring,” so Marte’s positional usage could perhaps be altered again should Arizona have the chance to acquire another regular center fielder (or second baseman). Marte seems like the best bet to be in center on Opening Day, however, given that landing a center fielder would likely come at a significant financial or trade cost to the D’Backs.
More from around the NL West…
- The Rockies‘ troubled pitching situation is examined by The Athletic’s Nick Groke (subscription required), who projects that German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Jon Gray will headline the 2020 rotation. The last two spots are up in the air between such names as Peter Lambert, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Rico Garcia, Chris Rusin, and Ryan Castellani. While there’s certainly room for an external addition, the Rockies have now gone several years without signing a veteran to a significant Major League contract — Kyle Kendrick was the last, back in the 2014-15 offseason. It doesn’t seem like this trend will change this winter, as the team doesn’t have much payroll space available (due in part to a lot of ill-fated free agent signings in general in recent years). There’s also the fact that free agent pitchers who have a choice of multiple teams aren’t likely to want to come to Coors Field without a significant overpay.
- Unsurprisingly, several Giants free agents aren’t planning to re-sign with the team until they know who the next manager will be, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. This includes the likes of Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, who will be two of the more heavily-pursued arms on the market this winter, and also lower-tier free agents like Stephen Vogt, who Schulman noted “seems like the perfect candidate to re-sign as a free agent quickly after the season.” Vogt has hit .264/.311/.492 with 10 homers over 273 PA this season, playing primarily as the backup catcher and also seeing a bit of time as a left fielder and first baseman. Between his valuable bench presence and his ties to the Bay Area, Vogt indeed seems like a good fit for the 2020 roster, and he would “definitely be interested in coming back.” If a new manager isn’t hired until the free agency period begins, however, the Giants would lose their exclusive negotiating window to talk terms with Vogt and other free agents.
- The Giants announced that right-hander Trevor Gott underwent left groin surgery yesterday. Gott’s season was already over due to an elbow strain, and the groin surgery only carries a six-week recovery period, so it shouldn’t impact Gott’s readiness for Spring Training. Gott posted a 4.44 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 3.35 K/BB rate over 52 2/3 innings out of San Francisco’s bullpen this season, though ERA indicators (3.13 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 3.74 SIERA) point out that Gott performed better than his 4.44 ERA would imply.
Ketel Marte Done For Season
A dream season for the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte has come to a premature end. The club has shut down the second baseman/outfielder on account of a stress reaction in his back, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The injury doesn’t figure to affect Marte going forward, as general manager Mike Hazen said he won’t need surgery and should be ready for a full spring training.
At 78-75, the Diamondbacks have put up a valiant fight this year, but it’s clear a playoff berth won’t be in the cards. As such, it likely wasn’t an overly difficult decision for the team to shut down Marte, who has emerged as a franchise-caliber player this season.
Marte, who joined the D-backs in a whopper of a trade with the Mariners in 2016, turned into one of baseball’s elite all-around players in 2019. Not only did the switch-hitting 25-year-old slash an exemplary .329/.389/.592 with 32 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 628 plate appearances, but he was an asset on the defensive end. Marte combined for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating among second, shortstop and center field (primarily the latter). His overall output was worth a jaw-dropping 7.1 fWAR/6.9 bWAR.
Back in 2018, Marte signed a team-friendly extension that could possibly run through 2024. The deal has gone about as well as possible for the club thus far, and it appears Marte’s on his way to being one of the faces of the Arizona organization for the foreseeable future.
Latest On Ketel Marte
6:10pm: Marte is being hobbled a bit by some inflammation, tweets Buchanan. He’ll also undergo a CT scan that the club has deemed “precautionary” in nature tomorrow.
7:38am: Breakout Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte was pulled from last night’s game after experiencing back stiffness, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links). He’ll undergo an MRI today.
There’s no realistic chance at this point for the Arizona organization to complete a surprising run back to the postseason. But any miracle outcome would likely involve Marte going wild (among other things).
While it’s safe to say the D-Backs won’t sneak into the Wild Card spot, they would no doubt like to finish off the year with a winning record. If Marte is sidelined, it’d be a bit of a disappointing way to finish out the season.
At this point, there’s certainly no reason to believe Marte is dealing with an injury that will impact his future. Unless that changes, this issue won’t put a damper on a stunning 2019 campaign.
Marte, who’ll soon turn 26, has posted a whopping .329/.389/.592 batting line with 32 homers and ten steals on the year. With high-quality up-the-middle defensive work and excellent baserunning mixed in, he has played at about a 7-WAR clip.
It’d be prudent to bake in some anticipated regression when considering Marte’s future. But that still leaves an entirely exciting outlook. Fortunately for the Snakes, they’ve already locked him up to a low-obligation contract that gives the club control through the 2024 season. That pact now looks to be among the most valuable contractual assets in all of baseball.
Diamondbacks To Audition Catching Prospect Daulton Varsho In Centerfield
The Diamondbacks have begun to experiment moving Daulton Varsho out from behind home plate, per Nick Pecoro of the Arizona Republic. Varsho is the Diamondbacks #3 ranked prospect per Baseball America, #5 per MLB.com, while Fangraphs has him as the #77 overall prospect in their latest rankings.
Varsho’s bat has long been his calling card. Baseball America’s Best Hitter For Average in the Diamondbacks system following the 2018 season, he made the jump to Double-A this year and continued producing a rare combination of power and speed. His 20 stolen bases make him the first catcher in the upper reaches of the minors to hit that threshold since 2006. His overall numbers suggest he’ll reach Triple-A by next year at the latest (.301/.377/.527 with 25 doubles and 17 home runs).
The party line remains that Varsho can and will catch at the major-league level, but a move out from behind the plate has long been rumored for the Wisconsin native. Perhaps most telling is the fact that the Diamondbacks are now putting that plan into action: he started two games in centerfield this week, his first looks at game action from behind the mound. The Dbacks believe Varsho’s athleticism will allow for a smooth transition to the outfield.
Carson Kelly‘s emergence as the full-time backstop in Phoenix has as much to do with this move as anything. Arizona is presumably preparing for a future in which Kelly and Varsho are in the same batting lineup. Kelly, 25, has shined in his first season as a regular starter, slashing .254/.349/.531 with 18 home runs. Defensively, he’s not the quickest off the mat, but he grades as an excellent pitch framer and he’s long been held in high regard as a game-caller.
The Diamondbacks have a solid collection of potential future centerfielders, but the likes of Alek Thomas, Kristian Robinson, and Corbin Carrol are years away from the major leagues. Ketel Marte started 78 games in centerfield, but he’s also a capable second baseman. As a franchise, take a look at the moves they’ve made in free agency and trades over the last year, and they clearly value versatility. Recent acquisitions with the utility gene include Wilmer Flores, Eduardo Escobar, Andy Young, and Josh Rojas. Varsho joining this group of highly flexible position players fits the organizational scheme, and for what it’s worth, it should make him a more marketable trade asset.
Injury Notes: Lowrie, Mancini, Marte
Let’s check in on a few injury updates from around the league…
- Jed Lowrie does not appear anywhere near a return for the Mets, as his left side hip and hamstring are both causing him some pain, tweets Deesha Thosar of the NY Daily News. The Mets maintain that Lowrie will play this season, but there’s no timetable for him to begin a rehab assignment. Given that Lowrie’s initial injury was a left knee capsule strain, it would seem Lowrie’s rehab has become a complex and dynamic healing process.
- Trey Mancini returns to the lineup after nursing a sore elbow after getting plunked by Chris Bassitt of the A’s, per MLB.com’s Joe Trezza. Mancini, 27, is the Orioles likely all-star and best trade chip as of right now (.304/.361/.558), but he may also be their best chance to stop their current 9-game skid.
- Good news for the Arizona Diamondbacks as Ketel Marte‘s injury appears minor. He is day-to-day for now with a left groin cramp, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Marte’s health is crucial for the Diamondbacks if they are to stay in the hunt for the Wild Card. They are 2.5 games back entering play today, largely driven by Marte’s .309/.359/.586 season, his 20 home runs already 6 more than his previous career high.
Ketel Marte Elevates, Celebrates
Ketel Marte joined the Diamondbacks in November 2016 as part of a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. At the time, Marte wasn’t regarded as the biggest piece of the deal – one that also featured Jean Segura, Taijuan Walker and a pre-breakout Mitch Haniger – but he has evolved into an indispensable piece for the Diamondbacks.
Baseball America considered Marte one of the majors’ 50 best prospects when the Mariners promoted him to the majors in 2015. The switch-hitting middle infielder lived up to the billing initially, as he slashed .283/.351/.402 (112 wRC+) with 1.8 fWAR during a 57-game, 247-plate appearance debut. Marte sharply declined in Year 2, though, and the Mariners deemed him expendable after he accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR in 466 trips to the plate that season.
On the heels of his trade to Arizona, the D-backs elected to slow cook Marte. They kept him at the Triple-A level the first few months of the 2017 campaign, during which he raked, before calling him up at the end of June. Marte didn’t log world-beating production over his two months in Arizona that year, but he impressed the organization enough for it to award him a five-year, $24MM guarantee heading into 2018. The extension appeared to be a shrewd choice on the D-backs’ part last year, when Marte hit .260/.332/.437 (104 wRC+) with 2.5 fWAR in 580 PA, and now it looks downright brilliant.
With 2.4 fWAR in 294 plate trips, Marte’s already on the verge of surpassing his career-high total in mid-June. His value has largely come from a massive uptick in power. The 25-year-old entered the season with 22 major league home runs, including 14 in 2018, but has already added 17 to his ledger thus far. And Marte’s isolated power number (.258) dwarfs the below-average .126 he posted from 2015-18.
Like many other hitters, Marte’s profiting from more of a fly ball-oriented approach. His flies are up almost 9 percent over his career mark, his grounders are down nearly 8 percent, and he’s pulling more pitches than ever. Since his last year in Seattle, when Marte hit a mere one homer and managed a similarly weak .064 ISO, his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives has risen almost 7 mph.
The changes Marte has made since he switched organizations have helped lead to a meaty .284/.332/.542 line (122 wRC+) this season. Better still, his increased output looks relatively sustainable. Marte’s not a product of his ballpark, having hit better outside Chase Field, and has recorded above-average production from both sides of the plate. His walk rate’s a below-average 6.4 percent, down from 9.3 last season, though he has never been a BB king (sorry). While Marte has swung more – including outside the strike zone – and made less contact than he did in 2018, his still-low 16.1 percent strikeout rate indicates he’s not totally selling out for gains in the power department.
In further good news, Marte’s .288 batting average on balls in play isn’t on the lucky side – particularly for a fast runner who hits the ball with authority. His exit velocity (90.9 mph), expected batting average (.287), expected slugging percentage (.516) and expected weighted on-base average (.361, compared to a .365 real wOBA) all rank in the league’s 77th percentile or higher, according to Statcast. And Marte hasn’t been vulnerable versus any offering, having registered an xwOBA between .342 and .401 against fastballs, offspeed pitches and breaking balls.
Adding everything up, it appears the Diamondbacks have a solid offensive presence in Marte. Not only that, but he has morphed into a multi-positional defensive building block. After saving seven runs as a full-time second baseman last year, Marte has combined for another seven this season – including six as a center fielder. The all-around package is an enviable one for Arizona, which looks as if it will continue to benefit from its choice to lock up Marte at set prices for the foreseeable future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL West Notes: Arenado, Rockies, Flores, D-backs, Giants
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich largely declined an opportunity to discuss the state of the team’s contract talks with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. Bridich says the club is content to “keep things under wraps, under our hat for now” as it continues to try to work out a 2019 salary — and, perhaps, a long-term deal — with the club’s top player. The general manager did say that the Rox will not “set any deadlines or ultimatums,” though that comment may relate more to the still-unresolved arbitration case than extension talks. Arenado and the team still need to bridge a $6MM gap to stave off a hearing, as he filed at $30MM against the team’s $24MM submission. It’s still anyone’s guess whether there’ll be any real traction in discussions on a lengthier accord, but it’ll unquestionably cost a pretty penny to get the 27-year-old to forego a chance at testing the open market next winter.
Here’s more out of Denver and the NL West…
- Also from Harding’s piece, Bridich stated that the Rockies “haven’t been overly aggressive” in the outfield market. Fans hoping for a reunion with Matt Holliday will be disheartened to see that the GM characterized the franchise icon as a tougher fit on the current roster than he was when he was signed late in the 2018 season and enjoyed a brief comeback tour. Presently, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl look like locks for regular outfield work. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and Noel Cuevas will also slot in around the outfield, though Cuevas has options remaining, so it seems conceivable that the Rox could make a move if a palatable bargain presents itself.
- There are “indications” that the Diamondbacks plan to utilize newly signed Wilmer Flores as their second baseman in 2019, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Doing so would allow them to shift Ketel Marte to the outfield as their new primary center fielder. It’d be an unfamiliar position for Marte, but the move is something that’s been discussed for some time now. (The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan noted as much all the way back in October). As Piecoro notes, the D-backs’ defensive alignment figures to look quite a bit different; Jake Lamb is slated to move across the diamond to first base following the trade of Paul Goldschmidt, with Eduardo Escobar slotting in as the primary third baseman. Nick Ahmed (shortstop), Flores (second base) and Marte (center field) could line up on the middle of the diamond, with David Peralta and Steven Souza Jr. flanking Marte in center.
- The Giants may use the “opener” strategy at times in 2019 but won’t be among the league’s most aggressive teams with it, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Madison Bumgarner, Derek Holland and Jeff Samardzija will all be treated as traditional starters, though Schulman notes that president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has recently expressed a desire to manage the workloads of younger arms like Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez “for their future and for ours.” Schulman’s column explores multiple avenues to achieving that goal and features multiple quotes from Zaidi and skipper Bruce Bochy on the pitching staff that Giants fans will surely want to check out in full. Schulman also reiterates that it’s still possible the Giants could explore trades of either Will Smith or Tony Watson as they seek additional rotation and outfield options. Both lefty relievers can become free agents next offseason.
Ketel Marte Hires Wasserman Agency
Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte has hired Wasseman Media Group, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be joined there by Yankees pitching prospect Domingo Acevedo, with both moves now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Marte’s move comes less than a year after he inked a new deal with the Diamondbacks. He’s under control in Arizona through at least 2022, for a promised $24MM in overall salary. The contract also includes a pair of options and some available incentives.
While the 25-year-old Marte likely won’t have much contract work for his new reps to handle for some time, he’ll increasingly feature as a prominent player on a still-evolving Arizona roster, perhaps bringing additional promotional earning opportunities. It seems the organization sees him not only as a regular performer, but also as a candidate to shift into center field.
As for Acevedo, he’s considered one of the Yankees’ top prospects but is still waiting for his first shot at the majors after spending most of the past two seasons at the Double-A level. Acevedo is best known for his sizzling fastball; whether he’ll make it to the Bronx as a starter or reliever remains to be seen.
NL Notes & Rumors: Mets, Realmuto, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, K. Marte, Lamb, Fowler
Though earlier reports suggested the Mets’ pursuit of catcher J.T. Realmuto was a “long shot,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that the team is “considered” one of only three teams (with the other two not yet known) “in the mix” for the 27-year-old. The whirlwind of activity surrounding the star backstop, at this point, seems matched only by the Mets’ frantic pursuit of blockbuster deals in all directions, so the potential intersection of the two remains a fascinating watch indeed. Frisaro does, however, downplay the plausibility of the rumored three-team deal that would also include the Yankees.
In other news from around the Senior Circuit . . .
- Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, none of the Dodgers’ glut of outfielders are unavailable in trades, including 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger. He does imply, though, that 23-year-old Bellinger would be most difficult to get; other options, like Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, and youngster Alex Verdugo have most often found their names circulating in the swirling winds of trade season, though Chris Taylor, who’s averaged nearly 4.0 fWAR over the last two seasons, is apparently on the table as well. One of Pederson or Verdugo would, as quality lefty bats capable of handling center field, seem the most logical candidate to be moved, but the notoriously coy Andrew Friedman, long a sucker for homegrown talent, may be setting his sights elsewhere. Pederson, for one, has a value difficult to gauge precisely – his frightening platoon splits (129 career wRC+ vs RHP, 61 wRC+ vs left) at times mask a steadily productive output (10.1 fWAR since ’15) in the four years since his debut. LA, of course, is thought to be seeking upgrades at the front of the rotation.
- The Diamondbacks, who earlier today indicated to blood-smelling clubs that they aren’t interested in a full rebuild, may react to core departures by shuffling current regulars to different spots across the diamond. Indeed, as GM Mike Hazen indicated to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert this morning, current third baseman Jake Lamb may shift to first, while incumbent second baseman and sometimes shortstop Ketel Marte could see time in center field. The club is still exploring trade-market upgrades in center, and hasn’t completely given up on resigning A.J. Pollock, but Hazen explicitly pinpointed Marte as a legitimate, “full-time” option at the position in 2019. Marte, who signed a 5-year, $24MM extension just days prior to last season, put together a solid, 2.5 fWAR season for the Snakes last year, slashing .260/.332/.437 (104 wRC+) in nearly a full season’s worth of time.
- The Cardinals appear to be comfortable with outfielder Dexter Fowler opening the 2019 season as the starter in right field, per President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak via MLB.com’s Jennifer Langosch. Fowler, of course, is owed nearly $50MM over the next three seasons, and just completed a dreadful, injury-marred ’18 campaign with the Redbirds. His -1.2 fWAR, muffled by a career-worst .118 ISO, was among the worst in baseball last season, though the 32-year-old had been above-league-average offensively in each of the seven seasons prior to last. With left field still manned by Marcell Ozuna, and center earmarked for the burgeoning Harrison Bader, outfield additions seem to have been put on the St. Louis back burner for the time being.