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Kevin Pillar

Giants Non-Tender Kevin Pillar

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The Giants have non-tendered center fielder Kevin Pillar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll head onto the open market.

Set to reach his 31st birthday in January, Pillar was slated to earn a projected $9.7MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. That proved too rich for the San Francisco organization, which played Pillar regularly after picking him up early in the 2019 season from the Blue Jays.

Frankly, it’s not surprising to see the Giants pass at that price. Pillar is a gritty performer who still makes his share of highlight-reel plays and has good pop for an up-the-middle player. But advanced analysis suggests he has lost a step in the field and he continues to turn in cringeworthy on-base numbers.

Last season, Pillar slashed just .259/.287/.432 (85 wRC+). That marked his fourth consecutive season of offensive performance more than ten percent below league average. When Pillar was an elite defender in center, that perhaps would have sufficed, even at a relatively lofty price point. However, he’s rated as a mere average center fielder the past two season, combining for -7 defensive runs saved and +2 runs per Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast, meanwhile, pegged him as a 51st percentile outfielder in 2019. Combined with his lackluster bat, that defensive downturn proved too much for the Giants.

MLBTR Poll: The Case Of Kevin Pillar

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In MLBTR’s recent projection of arbitration salaries for the 2020 season, Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar was penciled in to receive a $9.7MM salary award in his third and final trip through arbitration this offseason.

A cursory glance at Pillar’s stats would render this to be a reasonable projection–and an eminently manageable sum for Farhan Zaidi’s front office in San Francisco. After all, Pillar hit 21 home runs in 2019, after an early April trade from Toronto deposited the veteran Pillar into the Giants’ everyday lineup. Over 161 games, the outfielder would come to lead the team not just in homers, but also in RBIs, stolen bases, and runs scored, all while playing respectable defense in center and right field.

Then again, the operative word there was “cursory”–a deeper look at Pillar’s numbers indicate his effective value may not match his arbitrational value.

While Pillar did accrue some nice counting stats in 2019, his 2.8% walk rate in 2019 resulted in a ghastly .287 OBP. Weighted metrics suggest he was a squarely sub-average offensive performer overall (85 wRC+ in 645 plate appearances); then again, Pillar’s never been known as a plus performer at the plate, as his 86 career wRC+ would suggest. Though the California product does still offer excess value on the bases (6.0 Fangraphs BSR recording in 2019), it’s not as if the club can place a premium on his defense: his 0.3 UZR and -3 DRS marks last year were all-too-typical for an outfielder on the wrong side of the 30-year age marker.

Giving due credit to intangible considerations like veteran leadership and Pillar’s general reputation as a good teammate, Zaidi’s FO is ultimately looking at a slightly sub-par-hitting outfielder who, given a well-rounded game, slates as a roughly average regular. Just how much such a player is worth is, as always, a question of what the club’s recourse would be if they ultimately decided to go in another direction.

Looking to the free agent market, the Giants are unlikely to find an appealing host of options. Starling Marte figures to have his $11.5MM club option exercised, Brett Gardner doesn’t project as much of an upgrade from a performance or value standpoint, and, after that, the club will likely find a charming menagerie of former full-time players like Jon Jay, Billy Hamilton, and Juan Lagares. Not exactly a group to build a season-ticket sales pitch around.

On the trade front, Zaidi could enter the Mookie Betts sweepstakes–except for the fact that such a one-year move would hinge on the belief that the Giants are ready to contend in 2020, which would be hard to support after a 77-85 season. If the World Series-bound Nationals are intent on making marginal moves, it’s conceivable that a player like Michael A. Taylor could be pried away, but Taylor might be best suited for his current part-time, defense-and-speed role until he’s proven otherwise. Aside from that, “average” center fielders are not as plentiful as one might assume.

Then again, there is a third option, courtesy of Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News–San Francisco could try to hammer out an extension with a slightly lower AAV (link). Crowley suggests offering a one-year deal with a club option for 2021 totaling a potential $13MM-$15MM in value. This option, admittedly, does make some sense as a half-measure approach. The Giants, arguably the prestige org of the new millennium, could continue to run out a serviceable center fielder while it continues to try to identify the building blocks for its next championship team. No faded former starters, no overmatched prospects forced into full-time duty, no crippling long-term commitment.

So, on the balance, which route should Zaidi take this offseason in regard to the veteran Pillar? (Poll link for app users.)

Quick Hits: Pillar, Mets, White Sox

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Whether the Giants tender outfielder Kevin Pillar a contract during the offseason “will serve as a clear referendum on how married to the metrics Farhan Zaidi’s baseball operations group will be,” Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic writes (subscription required). The Giants’ Zaidi-led front office acquired Pillar from Toronto in April, though the club could move on from him within the next couple months if it decides he’ll be too pricey to keep. Pillar’s making an affordable $5.8MM this year, but he’ll earn an appreciable raise over that sum during his last trip to arbitration because of his counting stats (631 plate appearances, 21 home runs, 86 runs batted in, 81 runs, 13 stolen bases). Those are aesthetically pleasing numbers, which can’t be said of the .257/.284/.430 batting line or the 83 wRC+ Pillar has posted. And while the soon-to-be 31-year-old Pillar has rightly been regarded as a marvelous defender throughout his career, advanced metrics haven’t been that bullish on him the past couple seasons (zero DRS, plus-1.2 UZR between center and right this year).

Pillar realizes the new-school turn that baseball’s front offices have taken could spell doom for his tenure as a Giant. He told Baggarly he wants to stay in San Francisco, but he acknowledged that “my future’s kind of up in the air.” Baggarly’s piece is worth a full read for more quotes from Pillar, a couple of his teammates and manager Bruce Bochy in regards to the high impact they believe he has made as a Giant.

Checking in on a pair of other MLB clubs…

  • Mets first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith will attempt to add center field to his list of positions next year, Tim Healey of Newsday relays. Smith, who has already slimmed down since he debuted in the majors in 2017, will spend the offseason getting in even better shape in order to become a viable option at the outfield’s most challenging spot. Whether Smith will play another game for the Mets after this season is in question, though, with Healey noting the 24-year-old could be a trade chip over the winter. NL Rookie of the Year shoo-in Pete Alonso occupies Smith’s primary position, first base, while the Mets count Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis (not to mention the injured Yoenis Cespedes) among their other corner outfield-capable players.
  • White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease’s season came to an early end when the club made him a late scratch from his scheduled start Thursday. Cease is dealing with a hamstring issue, one that will require an MRI on Friday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. The touted 23-year-old wrapped up his debut campaign with a 5.79 ERA/5.19 FIP, 9.99 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 73 innings.
  • Righty Michael Kopech, another of the White Sox’s coveted young arms, didn’t pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September. Now, though, the flamethrowing Kopech is anticipating what he hopes will be a normal spring training. “I am as ready I can be right now,” Kopech said (via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score). “I have done everything I can to prepare. It has been a long time coming. I am ready to go for next spring.” Kopech should have a shot to join the returning trio of Cease, breakout star Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in the White Sox’s season-opening rotation in 2020. 

Giants Acquire Kevin Pillar From Blue Jays In Four-Player Swap

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The Giants and Blue Jays have announced a trade that will send outfielder Kevin Pillar to San Francisco. Heading back to Toronto in return are righty Derek Law, recently designated infielder Alen Hanson, and righty Juan De Paula.

The Giants designated outfielder Michael Reed to create roster space. He joins both Law and Hanson as recent 40-man roster casualties. Law had already been outrighted prior to this move, while Hanson was still in DFA limbo.

It’s not immediately clear how the Giants will line up in the outfield. Youngster Steven Duggar is likely in line for most of the time in center, but Pillar would offer a platoon match there — the former hits from the left side, the latter from the right — and could also spend time in the corners. He was obviously preferred to the untested Reed, who was added to the mix via late in camp.

Pillar, 30, has some pop but struggles in the on-base department. He’s a lifetime .260/.297/.396 hitter, but has been better (100 wRC+) against left-handed pitching. Pillar’s appeal lies in his glovework and baserunning. While metrics dimmed on his overall defensive work last year, Pillar has a history of outstanding work up the middle and has one of the game’s most impressive highlight reels on the outfield grass. He could end up being moved at the deadline, kept as a one-year fill-in piece, or kept for 2020 via arbitration (his final season of control).

For the Jays, Pillar simply wasn’t part of the long-term plans. This transaction is the latest that clears out roster space and sheds some payroll. The club could have held onto Pillar in hopes that he’d turn in a quality first half and become a mid-season trade chip, but will instead drop his $5.8MM salary and open the door for Anthony Alford to get a shot at the majors.

The Toronto organization does pick up a few potentially helpful roster assets in Law and Hanson. The former had a nice 2016 debut but has struggled since. Law will be available as a depth relief piece if a need arises. Hanson, 26, was a major contributor least year in San Francisco but faded down the stretch. He could take up a utility role, though the Jays have several such players on the roster already.

But the only player with notable potential future value is De Paula, a 21-year-old who has had some success in the minors. He reached the Class A level last year, making one start there. Over 233 innings in parts of four seasons in the low minors, he carries a 2.47 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

De Paula originally came to the Giants last year in the swap that sent Andrew McCutchen to the Yankees. As JJ Cooper of Baseball America notes on Twitter, he has now been swapped three times already in his still-nascent career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants, Blue Jays Discussing Potential Kevin Pillar Swap

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10:49am: The clubs are close on some kind of trade, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter.

It’s frankly possible to imagine a variety of scenarios. Speculatively, the Giants could send some veteran pitching to Toronto, or the potential transaction could involve prospects or even other teams.

10:45am: The Giants are engaged with the Blue Jays in trade talks regarding Toronto outfielder Kevin Pillar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s not clear how likely a deal is at this point.

This is hardly a typical time of year for swaps to come together, except in cases of 40-man roster casualties. But there may yet be some unfinished business around the league. These two organizations are among several that could conceivably allow the offseason to drag into the 2019 campaign. Neither figures to contend this year, but both have significant resources and are surely interested in finding creative ways to improve their outlook for the near future.

Pillar has been on the Giants’ radar for some time now. He’s a defensive standout who hasn’t managed to produce consistently at the plate. With a $5.8MM salary, Pillar isn’t cheap but is also a rather affordable asset for teams in these tax brackets. He’s controllable via arbitration for one more season to come.

 

Rosenthal’s Latest: Kimbrel, Keuchel, Eloy, Pillar, Joyce

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There isn’t much indication that Craig Kimbrel or Dallas Keuchel are closing in on new contracts, though that hasn’t stopped teams from keeping in touch with the two free agents.  Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required) list the Mets and Brewers as two of the clubs checking in on both pitchers, though Milwaukee is more focused on Kimbrel as a potential add.  The Rays are also still maintaining contact with Kimbrel, after reports during Spring Training suggested Tampa Bay was at least considering signing the closer.  Rosenthal and Lin described the Mets’ interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel “as a matter of due diligence,” with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey (both Twitter links) adding that it doesn’t seem likely that either pitcher will end up in a Mets uniform.

Here’s more from Rosenthal, via his most recent Full Count video for FOX Sports…

  • Eloy Jimenez’s career-opening extension with the White Sox included “an understanding” that Jimenez and his camp wouldn’t pursue a service-time grievance with the league and players’ union.  Jimenez’s agents expressed public displeasure last summer when their client wasn’t given a late-season promotion, and the young slugger had been ticketed to begin this season in Triple-A before he inked his extension, which opened the door for Jimenez to join Chicago’s Opening Day roster.  The evidence seems to pretty clearly suggest that the White Sox were aiming to extend their control over Jimenez for an extra year, though the Sox are far from the only team that deploys this strategy with top prospects.
  • The Giants are the only team known to be involved in the Kevin Pillar trade market, though Rosenthal notes that the Blue Jays have also talked with multiple other teams about the center fielder.  Pillar offers two years of team control and a center field glove that was elite from 2015-17, as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics.  Last season, however, Pillar’s glovework was rated closer to average overall, and he has yet to post even league-average run production over his six MLB seasons.  If a trade did take place, Pillar would join Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki as Jays veterans sent out of town as Toronto makes room for its younger players.
  • The Braves acquired Matt Joyce from the Giants last weekend, just three days after Joyce joined San Francisco on a minor league contract.  Rosenthal provides some details on the transaction, stating that while the Giants were prepared to part ways with Joyce regardless, Atlanta chose to send some cash to the Giants in a trade rather than simply sign Joyce when he became available.  Since league offices were closed last Saturday on the day of the trade, Joyce’s arrival in the Braves’ spring camp could have been further delayed had the two sides been required to wait for the contract to be officially approved.  With a trade, however, Joyce was able to get some time in Atlanta’s camp, which led to his placement on the club’s Opening Day roster (Joyce marked his first PA with his new team by swatting a pinch-hit homer).

Giants Notes: Pillar, Guyer, Choo, Harper

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The latest on the Giants’ search for outfield help…

  • Cameron Maybin’s release has left the Giants in need of a right-handed hitting center fielder who can complement Steven Duggar.  To this end, the club has “looked into Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar and Brandon Guyer,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Guyer was just released by the White Sox and has a long track record of success against lefty pitching, though he would be another imperfect fit as a center field option — Guyer has only 356 career innings as a center fielder, with a -1.4 UZR.150 and -4 Defensive Runs Saved in that relatively small sample size.  Pillar is the much more accomplished defender, though not much of a hitter and also much more expensive than Guyer would be, as Pillar is set to earn $5.8MM this season.  There’s also the question of what the Giants would have to give up to Toronto in a trade, though Schulman notes “it’s unclear whether the Blue Jays would entertain a deal.”  San Francisco’s interest in Pillar dates back to earlier this offseason, though obviously no trade came together.
  • The Giants and Rangers discussed a trade that would have sent Shin-Soo Choo to the Bay Area, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required), though “the talks failed to gain momentum and at this point are barely active.”  Choo would’ve been something of a curious add for the Giants, given that he has moved into more of a DH role in recent seasons.  Choo’s bat is still potent (.264/.377/.434 with 21 homers in 665 PA last season), and while his glovework was below-average (-5 DFS, -3.9 UZR/150 in 507 1/3 innings as a corner outfielder) in 2018, the Giants might have felt the tradeoff was worth it, even if Choo’s defense would have likely further fallen off in Oracle Park’s larger outfield.  The Giants could also have possibly seen the trade as something of a bargain, since Rosenthal notes that the Rangers “would have included significant cash” to cover the $42MM remaining on Choo’s contract through 2020.  The talks didn’t revolve around the idea of dealing Choo for one of the hefty contracts (i.e. Jeff Samardzjia, Mark Melancon) on the Giants’ payroll.
  • Also from Rosenthal’s piece, he provided a sneak peek at an interview conducted with Bryce Harper that will air in full after Fox Sports 1’s broadcast of the Braves/Phillies game on March 30.  Within the interview, Harper discussed his lengthy free agent process, including the tidbit that his final decision came down to the Phillies and the Giants.  In weighing his options with his wife Kayla, Harper said the couple ultimately decided that Philadelphia was the best fit.  “It was nothing against San Francisco. They’re a great organization. It’s a great city,” Harper said.  “It just came down to what I felt. And by that point, it was Philly.”  Harper also said that the difference between spacious Oracle Park and the more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park “was never really a factor” in his choice of teams.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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NL Rumors & Notes: Brewers, Lowrie, Nats, Giants, Pillar, Kelly

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Following last month’s non-tender of Jonathan Schoop, the Brewers’ exhaustive, months-long search for a second baseman continues with the team’s pursuit of Jed Lowrie, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Lowrie, of course, is fresh off an outstanding, 4.9 fWAR 2018 season with Oakland, itself on the back almost identical offensive campaign (119 wRC+ in ’17, 122 in ’18) the year before. MLBTR projects the 34-year-old to earn a solid 3-year, $30MM deal this offseason, though Lowrie’s camp, given his recent two-year output, will surely be fighting for more. The risk with the switch-hitter lies in his subpar performance across multiple seasons (2011, ’14, ’15, and ’16), in obvious addition to his age and former propensity for the serious injury, plus the tendency of second basemen to decline earlier than most, but there could be surplus value aplenty to be found if he continues on his current trajectory.

In other news from around the NL …

  • The Nationals, another team with a hole at the keystone, offered Ian Kinsler a one-year deal before the 36-year-old signed a two-year pact with San Diego, per Rosenthal. Earlier this week, the club was said to have “checked-in” with free agent second-sacker D.J. LeMahieu, who would likely command a deal in excess length to the one offered to Kinsler, so it seems unclear as to exactly which direction the club will go in terms of filling the position. Carter Kieboom, a 21-year-old middle-infield prospect, has raked in the low levels of the minors and may just be a season and a half or so away, so perhaps the club is seeking just a one- or two-year stopgap in the interim.
  • Per Alex Pavlovic of NBA Bay Area, the outfield-naked Giants are interested in Blue Jays CF Kevin Pillar.  The club, who in years past has shown little interest in staking a defense-first player at the position, despite its park’s huge territory in right-center field, may be undergoing a philosophical about-face under its new, analytics-driven regime.  The club, of course, is stacked with right-handed fly-ball types in the rotation, and would seem to benefit in large measure from a ball-hawking center-fielder like Pillar.  The 29-year-old’s defensive metrics took a bit of a hit last season, but his peak from ’15-’17 (50 DRS) has rarely been matched in recent times. 25-year-old Steven Duggar would seem, at least in part, to fit the bill, but whether or not his bat will play – Steamer projects an 81 wRC+ for ’19 – is still an open question.
  • New Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly, who this week agreed to a 3-year, $25MM with the team, explained (audio version) to WEEI’s Rob Bradford why he chose LA, noting that the team was the first to extend its offer to three years. Though the duration may come as little surprise, it is notable that it came from the Dodgers, who in recent times (Kenley Jansen excluded) have preferred their relievers to be of the under-the-radar variety.

Kevin Pillar Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks

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The Blue Jays announced that they’ve placed center fielder Kevin Pillar on the 10-day disabled list with a right sternoclavicular joint sprain. They also sent infielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the seven-day concussion DL and activated a pair of pitchers – righty Ryan Tepera and lefty Jaime Garcia.

Pillar, the most prominent of the quartet, is expected to miss four to six weeks, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com tweets. The defensive whiz suffered the injury while making a diving catch against Boston on Saturday, and it could have been a lot worse. Blue Jays trainer Nikki Huffman told radio play-by-play man Mike Wilner that Pillar’s injury could have been a life-threatening one had his collarbone pushed in rather than out.

While Pillar nearly put his life on the line to make yet another impressive play Saturday, he surprisingly hasn’t drawn elite reviews from defensive metrics this season. After racking up at least 14 Defensive Runs Saved in center in each of the previous three seasons, he’s at zero in 2018, though Ulimate Zone Rating (2.7) and Outs Above Average (four) have liked his work better.

With Toronto at 43-51 and well out of playoff contention, Pillar’s absence won’t have a great effect on the club in the standings. And though the Blue Jays are in line to sell at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, Pillar’s name hasn’t come up in trade rumors. The 29-year-old, who’s on a $3.25MM salary, still has two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining.

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