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Lance Lynn

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Cherington, Schwarber

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The Brewers have told other teams that they’re open to hearing offers for anyone on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column.  As Olney notes, this could make Jonathan Lucroy a potential trade candidate this winter, though obviously, “only in the right deal.”  Lucroy’s name was mentioned in several trade rumors last summer since Milwaukee fell out of the pennant race so soon, though the Crew reportedly had no interest in dealing the catcher.  New GM David Stearns could have a different perspective, however.  In his recent Brewers Offseason Outlook piece, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth speculated about a possibly Lucroy trade, and also suggested that the club might wait for a midseason deal to allow Lucroy to rebuild some value after an injury-plagued and subpar 2015 campaign.

Here’s some more from the NL Central…

  • Also from Olney’s post, he reports that the Pirates are in “informal discussions” with Ben Cherington about a possible front office job.  Since stepping down as Boston’s general manager last summer, Cherington reportedly declined opportunities to interview for both the Mariners and Phillies GM jobs out of a desire to take some time away from the game.  It’s fair to speculate that a position working under his friend Neal Huntington could be more attractive to Cherington than a return to the full-time grind of a GM position.
  • Could the Cubs shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason?  Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh explores the possibility, noting that the defensively-challenged Schwarber would be a good fit as an American League DH.  The Rays and Indians are two clubs with a hole at DH and the young arms to offer the Cubs, who are openly looking to add pitching.  While scouts are mixed at best about Schwarber’s ability to play catcher or left field over the long term, a trade may be unlikely given Schwarber’s already-impressive hitting potential.  “He’s not attainable now,” one AL scout tells Lindbergh.  “He still has a chance to hit .285 with 40 bombs. They’d be insane to trade that.”  I tend to agree with the AL scout; Chicago would need a massive return to even consider moving Schwarber’s bat.
  • Jason McLeod, Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting, spoke to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about a couple of Cardinals players who were well-liked by the Cubs and Red Sox when McLeod was running the drafts for those clubs in 2012 and 2008, respectively.  “A lot of the teams that passed up on Michael Wacha, us included, probably kicked themselves,” McLeod said.  St. Louis took Wacha with the 19th overall pick of the first round, while the Cubs (picking sixth) instead chose Albert Almora, who is a well-regarded 21-year-old prospect but has yet to play beyond the Double-A level.  For Boston in 2008, Lance Lynn was “a guy we liked quite a bit; he was high up on our board.”  The Sox instead took Casey Kelly with the 30th overall pick, leaving Lynn to be drafted by the Cards 39th overall.
  • Also from Laurila’s piece, he cites the Reds’ trade of Mat Latos to the Marlins for Anthony DeSclafani (and minor league Chad Wallach) as perhaps “the best under-the-radar trade of last offseason.”  DeSclafani posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.75 K/BB rate and 7.4 K/9 over 184 2/3 innings in his rookie season, and looks to have solidly earned himself a spot in Cincinnati rotation.

NL Notes: Jennings, Fernandez, Gee, Lynn, Moscot, Beachy

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Dan Jennings is likely to remain in the dugout for the Marlins next year, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. That is far from a sure thing, per the report, but the club is preliminarily sketching out a 2016 that includes Jennings as the manager. The club is showing signs of gelling under Jennings, says Frisaro, and Miami still is holding out hope of getting back into the mix.

  • One key component of a Marlins turnaround would be the successful return of young righty Jose Fernandez, who announced yesterday that he hopes to return to start on July 2. Fernandez has, of course, been out since early 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson said yesterday that he had just one “serious conversation” about an offseason Dillon Gee deal, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports on Twitter. Presumably, he is having more now, as Gee remains in DFA limbo. While Gee has struggled this year, he should have appeal to teams looking for some back-of-the-rotation options. A deal would allow New York to save some money on the $5.3MM owed Gee this year; he’ll also come with one more season of control via arbitration.
  • The Cardinals have received good news on righty Lance Lynn, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports. Lynn is back throwing after hitting the DL with forearm tightness, and St. Louis hopes that he can come back after missing just two starts.
  • A quick return may not be in the cards for Reds righty Jon Moscot, who suffered a dislocated left shoulder yesterday in a freak accident, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. The 23-year-old rookie was making his third start for Cincinnati, which has been beset by injuries of late.
  • Brandon Beachy is set to begin a rehab assignment for the Dodgers, with the club’s Rancho Cucamonga affiliate announcing that he’ll make his first appearance tonight. The 28-year-old righty has not appeared in the big leagues since 2013, undergoing successive Tommy John procedures in the interim. His ability to return to provide innings for Los Angeles could play a role in the team’s summer trade plans.

Central Notes: Lindor, Price, Cubs, Lynn

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If the Super Two threshold was ever a factor keeping top Indians prospect Francisco Lindor out of the big leagues, it does not seem to be anymore, Zack Meisel of the Northeast Ohio Media Group writes. The threshold has likely passed, and teams have promoted top prospects like Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo in recent weeks, but Lindor remains with Triple-A Columbus. Lindor is hitting .279/.346/.398, including .400/.429/.600 in June. The Indians, meanwhile, have undergone upheaval at the shortstop position, with Mike Aviles replacing the struggling Jose Ramirez. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

  • David Price and the Cubs will be great fits for one another when Price becomes a free agent next winter, Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago writes. Price’s former manager Joe Maddon is now in Chicago, and Price says he finds a young team like the Cubs appealing. “They have a lot of guys they can control for a long time,” he says. “It’s very similar to when I first came up in Tampa. Just a bunch of young guys out there having fun. That’s what it’s about. You have to be able to have fun. I don’t want to win and not have fun.”
  • Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has headed to the disabled list with a forearm strain, and the team has promoted Tyler Lyons to take his place, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. GM John Mozeliak says Lynn should be able to return after the minimum 15 days, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “A little forearm strain, as it looks right now, should be a normal 15 days and make sure we get everything calmed down — make sure it’s not something that flares up as the year goes on and I don’t try to pitch through something and make it worse,” Lynn says. Lynn’s injury is, however, another blow to a franchise that also has Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday and Jordan Walden on the disabled list.

Injury Notes: Miller, Lynn, Cozart, Jennings

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The Yankees today placed closer Andrew Miller on the disabled list with a strained left flexor mass. Manager Joe Girardi told reporters, including the New York Daily News’ Anthony McCarron, that an MRI on Wednesday morning revealed the injury. Miller will not throw for the next 10 to 14 days, and he will be re-evaluated after that time. Though the Yankees have an excellent alternative in Dellin Betances, the loss of Miller weakens the team’s relief corps substantially. After signing a four-year, $36MM contract this winter, Miller has been excellent in pinstripes, yielding just three runs with a 43-to-10 K/BB ratio in 26 1/3 innings as the team’s closer.

That’s far from the only notable injury around the league today, however. Here’s the latest…

  • Lance Lynn is back in St. Louis for an MRI on his right forearm, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Lynn left Sunday’s outing after five innings due to tightness in his forearm and said the following day that he’s experienced the issue before. Earlier reports indicated that the Cardinals didn’t expect the injury to be serious, but Goold now writes that there is some concern among team officials. GM John Mozeliak would not address the situation until Friday when asked by Goold via email.
  • Reds shortstop Zack Cozart is likely headed to the disabled list with a knee injury, writes C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Manager Bryan Price told reporters after the game that Cozart underwent an MRI that will be checked out tonight by team physician Dr. Timothy Kremchek, but a stint on the DL seems likely. “It’s a collective sadness that he’s going to miss some time,” said Price. “It looks pretty certain he’ll miss some time.” The Reds will likely turn to offseason acquisition Eugenio Suarez, notes Rosecrans, but the loss of Cozart simply adds another name to a growing list of contributors for the Reds. Devin Mesoraco has scarcely played this season due to a hip impingement, and Marlon Byrd will be out for an extended period of time due to a fractured wrist. With the Reds 11 games out of the division lead, each notable injury will only fuel speculation that the team will begin selling off pieces in the near future.
  • The Rays will be without Desmond Jennings for an unknown period of time after the outfielder underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair the plica band in his left knee, writes Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune. Inflammation in the band caused it to compress on his knee, leading to pain whenever Jennings would try to extend the leg fully. Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters yesterday that the best case scenario for Jennings would be three to four weeks (via Sports Talk Florida’s Matt Stein, on Twitter), but the possibility that he’ll miss more time is certainly present.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Redmond, Cubs, Harvey, O’s, White Sox

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It would be foolhardy for the Marlins to fire manager Mike Redmond this early in the season, opines FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal in his latest notes column. Redmond is well-respected among the industry, Rosenthal notes, and he cannot be blamed for the fact that Henderson Alvarez is injured and Mat Latos has struggled so greatly. (Latos’ diminished velocity is likely a significant culprit in that regard.) Rosenthal writes that owner Jeffrey Loria needs to realize that the unstable culture he creates by cycling through managers so willingly is part of the problem in Miami.

A few more notes from Rosenthal’s latest column…

  • In the video atop his column, Rosenthal notes that Cubs top prospect Addison Russell has begun playing some second base and may eventually get a look there in the Majors. However, because he is their best defensive shortstop, Russell may eventually push Starlin Castro to third base and Kris Bryant to the outfield, or his arrival may lead to a trade of Castro.
  • Rosenthal writes about former Mets GM Omar Minaya’s decision to draft Matt Harvey with the seventh pick in the 2010 draft. The team had been deciding between Harvey and Chris Sale, but the Mets, like many other clubs, had some reservations about whether or not Sale would last as a starter. Minaya became convinced of Harvey after watching him in an April start at the University of Miami, though as Rosenthal notes, others in the front office/scouting department, including Marlin McPhail, Rudy Terrasas and Bryan Lambe all played large roles as well. Interestingly, Rosenthal adds that the White Sox were thrilled to get Chris Sale at No. 13, as they feared the Royals would select him fifth overall. Kansas City instead selected Cal State Fulelrton infielder Christian Colon.
  • Delmon Young told the Orioles that he wanted to regain some of his lost athleticism, and so the team had him work extensively with outfielder-turned-executive Brady Anderson in Spring Training. Young was the first to the clubhouse every day during Spring Training and is now has the fastest 10-yard dash time on the Orioles, per manager Buck Showalter. Rosenthal also notes that Everth Cabrera told the O’s that he knew advanced metrics pegged him as a below-average defender, and he expressed an interest in improving in that area. Baltimore is working with Cabrera to correct a tendency to retreat with his hands and “baby” the ball, as Rosenthal put it.
  • The White Sox weren’t as successful in upgrading their catching position as they’d have liked, but for the time being, they’re content with Tyler Flowers and Geovany Soto. Rosenthal notes that while Welington Castillo is widely believed to be available, the Sox and Cubs rarely make trades.

Quick Hits: Lynn, Nationals, Tommy John

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The Indians fell two batters shy of a combined no-hitter in today’s 5-1 win over the Astros.  Trevor Bauer (six innings), Kyle Crockett and Scott Atchison (one inning each) kept Houston hitless through much of the game, but Nick Hagadone allowed a one-out solo homer to Jed Lowrie in the ninth to end the bid.  Cleveland’s last no-hitter came on May 15, 1981 when Len Barker threw a perfect game against the Blue Jays.  Here’s some news from around the baseball world…

  • Lance Lynn has brought “exceptional value to the Cardinals,” Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, especially in comparison to what the Red Sox just paid Rick Porcello in an extension; Miklasz considers Porcello an “overrated talent.”  While I agree that Lynn has been a good find for the Cards, I’m not sure his three-year, $22MM extension from earlier this winter is a good comparable for Porcello’s four-year, $82MM extension.  Lynn’s extension only covered his three arbitration seasons while Porcello’s deal was bound to be more expensive since it covered four free agent years, not to mention the fact that Lynn is over 19 months older than Porcello.
  • Ryan Zimmerman thinks the Nationals are well-positioned for long-term success even if they some key players in free agency this winter, he tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.  “I know a lot of the guys in here know there is a good chance that everyone is not going to be back.  If it was up to us, obviously, we want everyone to come back, but that’s not how the business works,” Zimmerman said.  “I think [the front office] has a done a really good job of drafting and getting guys up to take [their] place. I think whether it’s all of them, none of them or some of them, I think we are going to be good for a long time no matter what.”  Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, Denard Span and Jordan Zimmermann can all become free agents after the 2015 season.
  • The recent spate of Tommy John surgeries has drawn more attention to the procedure, and ESPN.com’s Stephania Bell delves into the numbers behind these surgeries.  Bell’s piece explores such topics as why TJ operations are becoming more frequent, how the surgery impacts pitchers’ future performance and how Major League Baseball is trying to determine if there’s a root cause to this increase in UCL injuries.

Pitching Notes: Santana, Shields, Haren, Lynn

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Johan Santana’s comeback bid has hit a snag, as the southpaw was scratched from a planned Venezuelan Winter League start with shoulder soreness (via the league’s Spanish language website). Though he will surely find another opportunity to showcase for MLB clubs, shoulder health was already an obvious concern for the two-time Cy Young winner.

Here are some more notes involving starting pitching:

  • It has been a challenge to find obvious fits for free agent righty James Shields, but ESPN.com’s Dan Szymborski (Insider link) makes the attempt by focusing on which clubs would stand to receive the greatest boost in projected wins. Three NL West teams (Dodgers, Giants, Padres) and a trio from the AL Central (Tigers, Royals, White Sox) join the Marlins as the clubs that the ZiPS projection system thinks would benefit most by signing Shields.
  • The Marlins have not yet received any trade offers for righty Dan Haren, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Miami is in an interesting spot with regard to the veteran, as Jackson explains.
  • Before reaching agreement on a three-year deal that bought out all of his arb-eligible seasons, the Cardinals and righty Lance Lynn considered longer extension scenarios, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. That did not come to fruition because the team was interested in delaying Lynn’s free agency by one or two years whereas the pitcher was only interested in foregoing the open market for a larger, longer pact. Lynn explained that he would be open to revisiting talks later: “It’s not something that we could get situated, but there’s always going to be a process later. If everything goes well and I pitch the way I’m capable of, I’m sure that will be revisited down the line.”

Quick Hits: A’s, Lynn, Soto, Johan

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The Ninth U.S. Circuit Court Of Appeals upheld a previous ruling rejecting the city of San Jose’s challenge of Major League Baseball’s antitrust exemption, Fangraphs’ Nathaniel Grow reports (Twitter link).  As explained by CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich, the ruling is another obstacle in San Jose’s attempt to bring the Athletics to town, and an eventual courtroom victory in front of the Supreme Court seems unlikely.  The A’s may only be allowed to move if a majority of team owners votes down the Giants’ territorial rights claim on San Jose or if the Giants are financially compensated for giving up the area, Stiglish notes.

Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Cardinals and Lance Lynn discussed a longer-term deal before settling on a three-year extension that buys out Lynn’s three arbitration years, GM John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jen Langosch).  “Obviously, when you start talking about free-agent years or option years, there’s a cost to that,” Mozeliak said. “It certainly was something that was on the table and discussed. But ultimately the comfort of something getting done, even though it may feel short, it gives us some cost certainty.”
  • Geovany Soto is expected to sign within the next few days, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  The Rangers are among the teams still in the hunt for the veteran catcher.
  • The Blue Jays, Brewers, Mariners, Rangers and Rays were among the teams who scouted Johan Santana’s recent Venezuelan Winter League appearance, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports.  The Yankees, whose interest in Santana was already known, also had a scout present.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski tells Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that his team is “probably not” going to sign Max Scherzer.  “We’ve been in a situation where we’re pretty well set with our starting pitching,” Dombrowski said. “We’ve got five starters that we’re comfortable [with]. I guess you never tell what happens, but we’re not in any type of active pursuit of any other pitching right now.”  Dombrowski has consistently made statements of this type all winter, though there have been whispers that Scherzer could wind up back in Detroit thanks to the relationship between Scott Boras and Mike Ilitch.
  • Right-hander Kameron Loe and outfielder Terrell Joyce have both been issued 50-game suspensions following positive tests for a drug of abuse, the Commissioner’s Office announced.  Both players are currently free agents.  Loe posted a 4.49 ERA over 569 innings in the bigs with five teams from 2004-13, while Joyce (a 12th-round Astros draft pick in 2012) has a career .229/.308/.396 slash line over 704 minor league plate appearances in Houston’s farm system.

Cardinals Sign Lance Lynn To Three-Year Deal

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The Cardinals announced on Thursday that they have reached a three-year, deal with righty Lance Lynn that buys out his remaining three seasons of arbitration eligibility. The contract reportedly guarantees Lynn a total of $22MM. Additionally, the second and third year of the contract contain incentives, based on games started, that can boost the total value to $23.5MM. There are no options on the straight three-year deal, so the Cardinals will be gaining cost certainty, but no additional years of club control.

MLB: NLCS-San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz recently broke down the arbitration case for Lynn, who projected to earn a $5.5MM payday that would set a record for first-time arb-eligible pitchers. (As Swartz explains, he expected that Lynn would fall shy of that mark, but still earn somewhere in the $4.5MM range.) Instead, like several other quality starters before him, Lynn will take a multi-year guarantee that avoids any new records.

For the club, this contract ensures cost certainty while avoiding the expected annual haggling that would have come from continued quality work from Lynn. If he puts up numbers remotely in line with his prior work — he has averaged over 200 innings of 3.35 ERA pitching over the past two seasons — then his arb earnings would likely have handily outstripped the $22MM guarantee that he takes home.

If, on the other hand, Lynn were to reach his full ceiling, it is not hard to imagine that the Cards will realize rather significant savings. (David Price, after all, is projected to take home nearly $19MM next year alone.) While no additional control appears to have been obtained via the contract, the protection against massive performance-driven salary increases has plenty of value for St. Louis.

A corresponding set of considerations surely drove the deal for Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management. Though he sacrifices some upside earning opportunity, he preserves the ability to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season while locking down his first significant payday and safeguarding himself in the event of an injury or an unexpected decline in performance.

Deals of this nature are uncommon, though not entirely unheard of. As MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, recent cases of players selling all three of their arb years with no options include Pablo Sandoval ($17.15MM in 2012), Elvis Andrus ($14.4MM in 2012) and Joey Votto ($38MM in 2011). Of course, Andrus and Votto ultimately signed new extensions on top of those pre-existing deals.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com first reported the deal (Twitter links), while Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added further details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Lance Lynn, Chris Tillman, Alex Cobb

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Way back in 2006, Dontrelle Willis set a record for first-time eligible starting pitchers by earning a $4.35MM salary. Arbitration records rarely last eight years, but Willis’ record has. This year, however, three pitchers emerged as possible contenders to top this record. There have been a number of pitchers who looked destined to break this record before. Notably, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw had cases that were far stronger than Willis. But each signed a multi-year deal, which does not count towards arbitration records. As a result, there have been a number of pitchers who have crept closely up to Willis’ record but failed to top it. Had Lincecum or Kershaw signed a one-year deal to avoid arbitration, it is likely that other pitchers would have ended up earning more than the $4.35MM that Willis earned in 2006.

This type of situation is one that can break a model of arbitration salaries. My model sees Lance Lynn earning $5.5MM, Chris Tillman earning $5.4MM, and Alex Cobb earning $4.5MM. Of course, “The Kimbrel Rule” would cap Lynn and Tillman at $5.35MM, letting them only eclipse the previous record by $1MM. But these are all sort of path-dependent. Only Lynn looks likely to break the arbitration record on his own, but if he does that it is likely to affect what Tillman and Cobb earn. The effect that records have for a given service class and role can make the model look bad in that respect. There have been nine different pitchers in the last five years who have gotten within $50K of Willis’ record, but in each case something led the players to earn just less than him.

The lower run-scoring environment in the league in recent years has certainly helped Lynn, Tillman, and Cobb put together better cases than some of the other nine guys. Last year, Lynn had a 2.74 ERA while Cobb allowed 2.87 earned per nine. The only two starting pitchers in recent years to reach their first year of arbitration eligibility with ERAs under 3.00 have actually been Lincecum and Kershaw. Stephen Strasburg had an ERA of 3.00 exactly and earned $3.97MM last year, but he struggled with run support and only had an 8-9 record. Travis Wood and Mike Minor earned $3.90MM and $3.85MM last year with low ERAs of 3.11 and 3.21, but their records were 9-12 and 13-9. Lance Lynn had a 15-10 record, which should help him put together a better case than any of them. Cobb only mustered a 10-9 record despite his 2.87 ERA. Tillman went 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA, so his ERA is more in line with these other pitchers, but he had a better record than many of them. Tillman also has a lot of innings under his belt for a first-time eligible pitcher. He not only threw 207.1 innings in 2014, but logged 473 innings in his pre-platform years, which is basically as many as any of the nine pitchers who earned within that $3.85-4.35MM range that I mentioned earlier.

David Price actually matched Willis’ record with a 12-13 record in 2011 and a 3.49 ERA in 224.1 innings, so he might be that person that would be considered if any of these pitchers try to set a new high mark. Lance Lynn seems the most likely to do so, and his case actually compares pretty favorably to Price’s. Lynn had a better record and ERA (15-10, 2.74) than Price (12-13, 3.49) in his platform year. Although Price threw 224.1 innings, Lynn did throw 203.2. Lynn also had a 34-18 record with a 3.82 ERA in 412.1 innings in his pre-platform seasons, while Price had a 29-13 record with a 3.31 ERA in 351 innings. Lynn’s case also is pretty good compared to the next highest case in recent years. In 2010, Jered Weaver went 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 211 innings, after having a 35-19 record with a 3.71 ERA in 460.2 innings in his pre-platform years. Lynn’s pre-platform numbers are very similar to Weaver’s but his platform year ERA is a run better. Putting Lynn’s case up against Price and Weaver makes it look likely that he could set the record.

That being said, I doubt that Lynn will crush the record and end up with the $5.5MM the model projects without applying the Kimbrel Rule, or even the $5.35MM that he would earn once the Kimbrel Rule was applied. But it does seem likely that he will find himself earning north of $4.35MM.

If Lynn established the record, then he may be used as a comparable for Tillman and/or Cobb. But I suspect that they will still not be able to top $4.35MM despite what the model says. Cobb’s 10-9 record will hurt him, although his 2.87 ERA is obviously outstanding. Price’s numbers look better when you consider the fact that he threw 58 more innings than Cobb in his platform year and won two more games. He also had 80 more pre-platform innings and four more pre-platform wins with a similar pre-platform ERA. I suspect Price will be seen as a ceiling for Cobb unless his ERA matters more than I suspect. I could see Doug Fister’s 2013 case, which earned him $4.00MM, serving as a floor for Cobb though. Fister also struggled with run support and only went 10-10, so he had the same number of wins as Cobb. Fister only had 161.2 innings, too, which is almost equal to Cobb’s 161.1. But Fister had a 3.45 ERA, which is more than half a run higher than Cobb. Fister also had only a 20-31 record pre-platform with a 3.49 ERA in 448.1 innings, while Cobb had a 25-14 record and a 3.39 ERA in 332.1 pre-platform innings. Obviously Fister has the edge in pre-platform innings, but I suspect the superior ERA will make Cobb’s case look better. I think somewhere between $4-4.35MM is likely for Cobb, falling somewhat short of his $4.5MM projection but still in the same ballpark.

Chris Tillman’s projection looks less likely to be close. Tillman went 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 207.1 innings last year and 32-25 with a 4.28 ERA in 473 pre-platform innings. His case actually looks a lot like Price—he has one more win with an ERA 0.15 lower in his platform season, but with 17 fewer innings. He also won 29 games pre-platform, shy of Price’s 32, but had a 4.28 ERA. Price’s ERA was nearly a run better at 3.31. At the same time, Tillman had 473 pre-platform innings to Price’s 351. So depending on whether pre-platform ERA or pre-platform innings are more important, Tillman could beat Price or fall short of him. Mike Minor from last year might serve as a solid comparable for Tillman too. He won 13 games like Tillman did, with a 3.21 ERA and 204.2 innings. However, he had only 19 pre-platform wins in 302.2 pre-platform innings and an ERA even higher than Tillman at 4.37. So Minor would actually be more of a floor at $3.85MM. I suspect Tillman will probably match Price, but if not I doubt that he will fall below Minor’s numbers.

Overall, I think the model is going to be high on all three of these pitchers. They will probably move together, so if one of them ends up hitting the model, then the others are more likely to do so as well, but if they fall short, they will probably do so together. I think that Tillman and Cobb are probably not going to top the $4.35MM record, although I suspect Lynn will. If any of them do—and without signing multi-year deals—then they may make it easier for future starters to do so as well.

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