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Liam Hendriks

East Notes: Mets, Jays, O’s, Nats

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The Mets are interested in righty reliever Liam Hendriks, arguably the No. 1 bullpen arm available on the open market, per Andy Martino of SNY. He’d be the second major relief addition this offseason for the Mets, who signed Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee last week. Hendriks, previously with the Athletics, was perhaps the most dominant reliever in baseball during the previous two seasons. In that 108 1/3-inning stretch, the 31-year-old logged a matching 1.66 ERA/FIP, notched 13.21 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9, and recorded 39 saves in 47 opportunities. While the New York club has some level of interest in cross-town star D.J. LeMahieu, David Lennon of Newsday writes, it’s more on the “periphery” in that pursuit at the moment.

More from the eastern divisions:

  • The aforementioned Hendriks and fellow free-agent reliever Brad Hand “are believed to be” on the Blue Jays’ radar, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet writes (their interest in Hand was previously reported). Either pitcher would further strengthen a Toronto bullpen that finished 24th in the majors in ERA and 28th in K/BB ratio last season. It seems the Toronto organization is still casting rather a wide net in its free agent search. Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star recently linked the team to a number of big names at a variety of positions.
  • Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Tuesday that the team is unlikely to give out any multiyear contracts in free agency (Twitter links via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun). However, Elias acknowledged the Orioles are hunting for a new shortstop after trading Jose Iglesias to the Angels last week. Elsewhere, Elias said the Orioles plan to keep righty Alex Cobb, who has one year and $15MM left on his contract. Cobb had a decent year in 2020 (4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings), though he may be a tough sell at his current salary.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, beleaguered first baseman Chris Davis revealed Wednesday (via Melo) that he has no plans to hang up his cleats at this point. “I don’t want it to end the way that things have gone the last few years for me. I think there’s more of a story to be told but as far as my contract is concerned, it is what it is,” said Davis. “I’m not going anywhere. I’m not giving up. I’m not throwing in the towel. I understand the club is in a position right now to where they’re trying to cut payroll, and I’m the one big lump that they’re kind of stuck with. But they knew what they were signing up for when they took the job.” Davis’s seven-year, $161MM contract has been an unmitigated disaster for the Orioles, but he’s certainly not obligated to walk away from the remaining two seasons even if the club would prefer it. The 34-year-old is coming off a third-straight woeful season. Davis took just 55 plate appearances, failed to hit a home run and posted a brutal minus-14 wRC+.
  • Moving south on 95, the Nationals have a need for just the sort of player Davis once was. The D.C. organization put in an effort to lure Carlos Santana before he latched on with the Royals, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Missing on the veteran slugger makes it likelier that the Nats will end up putting together some kind of timeshare at first, as there isn’t a clear everyday alternative available in free agency. It also keeps the door open to a return for Nationals stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, whose intentions remain unknown.

White Sox Interested In Liam Hendriks, Michael Brantley

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It’s been a busy couple of days for the White Sox, who acquired Lance Lynn in a trade with the Rangers and then signed Adam Eaton to a one-year, $7MM deal.  However, the Pale Hose aren’t done yet, as The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link) reports that the team might still add to both the rotation and outfield even with Lynn and Eaton already in the fold, with Michael Brantley still a potential target.  Turning to the bullpen, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox “have their sight set on” free agent closer Liam Hendriks.

Since Alex Colome is a free agent, Hendriks would be a natural replacement and even an upgrade for save situations.  Hendriks has been nothing short of dominant over the last two seasons with the A’s, posting a 1.79 ERA, 13.1 K/9, and 6.71 K/BB rate over 110 1/3 innings, racking up 39 saves in the process.  MLBTR projected Hendriks as the top free agent relief pitcher available, though with so many relievers flooding the market, it remains to be seen how sizable a contract Hendriks can land.

There hasn’t been much buzz about the Australian right-hander to date, quite possibly because teams are still weighing all the available bullpen candidates before making a move for likely the most expensive option.  Still, Hendriks also has fewer red flags than just about any of the other free agent relievers, so an aggressive team like the White Sox might just want to address their ninth-inning vacancy as quickly and simply as possible.  Aaron Bummer or Evan Marshall are in-house candidates for save situations, but the Chicago bullpen would certainly be strengthened overall with the addition of another established stopper.

In contrast to Stark, Nightengale suggests that the White Sox have moved on from Brantley for budgetary reasons, though “they would have preferred” Brantley to Eaton.  That said, in a year when the White Sox clearly seem to be in win-now mode, maybe they’re willing to splurge on both Eaton and Brantley to make the lineup as strong as possible.  Brantley and Eloy Jimenez could split time between left field and DH, and while it had been widely speculated that the Sox could turn to star prospect Andrew Vaughn as a DH candidate in 2021, the team might prefer an established veteran bat in the lineup rather than a promising but unproven rookie like Vaughn.

Adding another starting pitcher would similarly put more veteran stability in the rotation, with this hypothetical new starter slotting into the fourth spot behind Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lynn.  The White Sox might prefer having Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez competing for just the fifth starter’s job rather than counting on two rotation spots to be covered by those three young hurlers.

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

Liam Hendriks, Devin Williams Win Reliever Of The Year Awards

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Liam Hendriks of the Oakland Athletics and Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers have won the Reliever of the Year Award in their respective leagues, per MLB.com (via Twitter).

Hendriks takes home the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever Of Year Award after saving 14 games in 24 appearances with a 1.78 ERA/1.14 FIP and 13.1 K/9 to 1.1 BB/9 across 25 1/3 innings. It was the second consecutive stellar campaign for the native Australian. He posted a  1.80 ERA/1.87 FIP in 75 games (85 innings) while notching 25 saves in 2019. In the postseason, he impressed with a scoreless 3-inning outing with the season on the line in game three of the ALDS against Houston. Unfortunately, it would be his final appearance of the year, as Oakland would bow out of the postseason tourney in the next game.

Hendriks becomes the first A’s player to win the award, which replaced the Rolaids Relief Award in 2014. It’s particularly good timing for Hendriks, as the 2019 All-Star heads into free agency this winter at the pinnacle of his career.

Williams takes the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever Of The Year Award from his teammate Josh Hader, who won the previous two seasons. It’s quite the achievement for the unheralded rookie, who rode his trademark change-up to a 0.33 ERA/0.86 FIP in 27 innings across 22 games with an absurd 17.7 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9 in 2020. The 26-year-old unfortunately missed the playoffs due to right shoulder soreness. He’ll be one of the more interesting cases to track next season, assuming a return to the standard 162-game season.

How The Rays Traded A Top-100 Prospect For A 29-Year-Old Rookie And Came Away Winners

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Nick Anderson is not exactly a household name – and he may never be. For most of last season, Anderson was a 28-year-old rookie non-closer pitching for the Marlins (he turned 29 in July). That’s not a recipe for superstardom.

After a deadline deal brought him to Tampa Bay, Anderson did get a moment in the spotlight, striking out four of the five batters he faced in the Rays’ Wild Card Game win over the A’s. That was nothing new for Anderson, who spent most of the season racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate.

Between Tampa and Miami, Anderson appeared in 68 games in 2019, totaling 65 innings with a good-but-not-great 3.32 ERA. The peripherals speak to a much more dominant campaign for the former independent leaguer. His 2.35 FIP suggests a potential high-leverage bullpen arm, while the 2.1 fWAR he racked up confirms it: he tied for 5th overall in the majors among relievers. That puts him on the same plane with firemen/closers like Taylor Rogers, Brandon Workman, Felipe Vazquez and Aroldis Chapman. Make no mistake: Nick Anderson is an elite bullpen piece.

Credit the Marlins for picking up Anderson and turning him into a top-100 prospect in Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez may have lost some luster as a prospect, but he still landed at #96 on Fangraphs’ top-100 list. Yes, he was #47 on their updated list after starting the year at #54 in 2019, but he’s still just 22-years-old and posted a promising line of .246/.338/.446 in the homer-happy PCL after the trade. As a 21-year-old, he was more than 5 years younger than the average player in the PCL.

For their part, the Marlins acquired Anderson for Brian Schales after the Twins signed Anderson from the independent league. The 6’5″ Anderson put up good numbers in the Twins’ system from 2015 to 2017, but he started to pop in 2018, striking out 13.2 hitters per nine innings in Triple-A. At the time, the deal was most notable for bumping Derek Dietrich from the Marlins’ roster.

But Anderson became a different animal entirely during his breakout in 2019. His 15.23 K/9 ranked fourth among relievers in the majors, behind only strikeout artists Edwin Diaz, Matt Barnes and Josh Hader. After joining the Rays, Anderson went into overdrive, striking out a ridiculous 17.3 batters per nine innings. Including his Marlins work, the Minnesota native finished in the bottom 9th percentile in hard hit percentage and bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity.

In adding Anderson from the Marlins, the Rays got a guy who has a legitimate chance to be one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball, and they have him at the league minimum for another two seasons. This is a guy the Rays can afford, which makes the deal all the more important from their perspective. There’s a reason they could include Ryne Stanek in the deal, a guy who throws 100+ mph and had a 3.40 ERA at the time. There’s a reason they could deal Emilio Pagan to the Padres after he broke out with a 2.3 bWAR season of his own in 2019. That reason is Nick Anderson.

So how does he do it? For Anderson, the recipe is fairly simple. He throws a fastball that averages 96 mph with good spin that he locates up in the zone. His “other” pitch is a curveball – but it’s one of the best in the game. By Fangraphs’ pitch values, his curveball was the second most valuable such offering from a reliever in 2019, behind only Workman’s bender. Batters managed an expected batting average of just .134 off Anderson’s curveball while registering a whiff rate of 54.2%. As of right now, Anderson’s hook is one of the deadliest weapons in the sport.

Anderson could also be in line for some positive regression this season, as opponents had a higher-than-average .349 BABIP against him in 2019. A 14.5 % HR/FB rate was also higher than Anderson had yielded at any point in the minors, and if that number comes down, Anderson could be an even more potent asset for the Rays moving forward.

His ceiling is no lower than Liam Hendriks’ amazing 2019, though Hendriks has a bit more versatility in his offspeed stuff. Hendriks, of course, was the most productive reliever in all of baseball last season, so there aren’t a ton of comps out there that make sense for him. Anderson, however, is one that does.

How Did The A’s End Up With Baseball’s Most Productive Reliever?

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Okay, I’m sure some will take umbrage with the title here. But I chose my words pretty carefully. Liam Hendriks probably wasn’t baseball’s most effective reliever in 2019. He almost assuredly isn’t its best from a true-talent perspective. And the Aussie certainly isn’t its most valuable when it comes to control rights and contracts. (He’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season.)

But … Hendriks did lead Major League Baseball’s bullpen denizens with a whopping 3.8 fWAR last year … the loftiest single-season tally since Eric Gagne’s magical 2003 effort. (It’s 3.9 if you include his two “opener” outings.) Hendriks was also worth 3.5 rWAR, so it wasn’t just a quirk of the FIP-based Fangraphs tabulations. Prefer RA9 WAR? He was even more dominant.

But, you may protest, wins above replacement isn’t the best measure of a reliever. That’s no doubt true. The precise tabulations don’t really matter for our purposes here. Hendriks was in part able to out-WAR his fellow relievers because he threw so many innings — 85 in 75 appearances, one of the heaviest workloads in the game — but that just makes things more impressive. He ranked among the leaders in most major measures of effectiveness as well … including fielding-independent pitching measures FIP (2nd), xFIP (18th), and SIERA (5th).

This showing was exceedingly impressive, no matter the details. It was also … decidedly not consistent with Hendriks’s prior efforts on an MLB mound. Entering the 2019 season, his big league stat sheet reflected 406 innings of 4.72 ERA pitching.

How on earth did we get here?

We can mostly ignore the earliest stage of his career, when Hendriks — once a prospect of some note with the Twins — failed to make it as a starter. The Minnesota organization cut bait after 156 innings of 6.06 ERA pitching. Hendriks ultimately landed with the Blue Jays after a round of offseason waiver-wire musical chairs in the 2013-14 offseason. He first went from the Twins to the Cubs after the Minnesota org signed Phil Hughes. The Orioles prevented the Cubs from slipping Hendriks through waivers but cut him loose when they inked Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Toronto organization only gave Hendriks a few outings during the ensuing 2014 season before sending him to the Royals in a deal for Danny Valencia. Hendriks did have good Triple-A numbers that year. When the Royals needed 40-man space in the ensuing offseason, the Jays stepped back in and grabbed Hendriks back in a DFA limbo swap.

Finally, the stage was set for success. Hendriks moved into the bullpen in Toronto … and immediately exhibited a huge uptick in velocity. He was sitting over 95 mph in a relief capacity and having much more success at generating swings and misses. In 2015, Hendriks turned in 64 2/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He didn’t allow many home runs (0.4 per nine) and even generated a strong 46.3% groundball rate (the only time he has ticked up in that department).

The Blue Jays decided to cash in at this point, shipping Hendriks to Oakland in exchange for steady veteran swingman Jesse Chavez. He continued the strong work for the most part. While his ERA trickled north, Hendriks still carried good peripherals and gave the A’s a lot of useful innings in his first two campaigns. Taking his 2015-17 efforts as a whole, Hendriks was a notable contributor: he threw between 64 and 64 2/3 frames in each season while compiling a 3.63 cumulative ERA and a total of 3.9 fWAR (precisely the tally he managed in the 2019 season alone).

Before Hendriks could break out, he had to go through the roughest patch since his time as a starter. He struggled with a groin injury and threw eleven terrible innings before being dumped to make way for Edwin Jackson. Hendriks sailed through waivers and could’ve elected free agency, but decided to stay with the A’s since doing otherwise would’ve meant giving up the remainder of his $1.9MM arbitration salary.

Expectations were low when the A’s unceremoniously brought Hendriks back onto the MLB roster for the stretch run with the September active roster expansion. But he had transformed himself while away and the results were immediately apparent — at both Triple-A (43:4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings) and the big leagues (two earned runs, 10:3 K/BB in 13 innings). What changed? As Rian Watt of Fangraphs wrote recently, A’s pitching coach Scott Emerson credits Hendriks for having “transformed his body” and with it his “mindset” and “approach” during his demotion. Oh, and Hendriks added velocity — it was apparent late in 2018 and continued in 2019 — and figured out a better means of locating his curve to complement the heat.

That good old-fashioned hard work has served Hendriks well in the past; he credited strength training and clean living for his original, pre-2015 breakout. But this time he moved into much more exclusive territory, delivering a 96.8 mph average fastball and generating a big 17.0% swinging-strike. Hendriks ended up fifth among all relievers with 32.0% K%-BB%.

Remarkably, even as the A’s watched Blake Treinen fall from his perch (a 3.6 fWAR 2018 season), they were able to turn over the ninth inning to a similarly dominant hurler. Hendriks ended up locking up 25 saves for Oakland last year. He’s earning a reasonable $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — which will actually be his tenth consecutive season of MLB action, owing to all the ups and downs over the years.

As for the future, we’ll have to see whether Hendriks can keep this going. But he only turned 31 in February, so he could have many good seasons ahead.

Athletics Avoid Arbitration With Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks

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The Athletics have avoided arbitration with a series of key players. Of particular note, shortstop Marcus Semien will earn $13MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Increasingly excellent reliever Liam Hendriks also gets a nice boost, checking in at $5.3MM, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Ditto outfielder Mark Canha, who’ll earn $4.8MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).

Also securing notable numbers were lefty Sean Manaea ($3.75MM) and outfielder Robbie Grossman ($3.725MM) with those reports also coming from the Twitter accounts of Slusser and Nightengale. Righty Chris Bassitt also finished off a $2.25MM deal at the last moment, Slusser tweets, thus completing the Oakland arb business for the offseason.

As compared to the projected arb values, most of the numbers don’t stand out. Semien is half a million shy of the mark set by the model, while Hendriks ($200K) and Canha ($100K) also come in just under that level. Manaea and Grossman bettered their projections ($3.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively) while Bassitt fell shy of his ($2.8MM).

It remains to be seen whether there’ll be further contract talks between the A’s and Semien, who stands out as an extension target as he enters his final season of team control. In all likelihood, it would take a team-record contract to keep him around after a breakout 2019 campaign. Hendriks is also slated to hit the open market at the close of the coming season.

Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals

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Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …

  • The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
  • In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline

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Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.

We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
  • The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
  • Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
  • The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
  • Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
  • The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
  • Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
  • The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
  • Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
  • Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
  • Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.

AL Notes: Yanks, A’s, Twins, O’s, Davis, Rangers

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The Yankees and Athletics have named their starters for Wednesday’s American League wild-card game. New York will turn to right-hander Luis Severino, the team confirmed, while Oakland will open the game with reliever Liam Hendriks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The fact that the A’s are counting on Hendriks in such an important role would’ve been a shock back in July, when they outrighted him, but the 29-year-old reemerged as an effective member of the team’s pitching staff in September. Severino, meanwhile, is in line to start his second straight AL wild-card contest. Last year’s showing was disastrous, as Severino allowed three earned runs and only recorded one out against the Twins before exiting what proved to be a comeback win for the Yankees. In an MLBTR poll over the weekend, the plurality of voters expressed that J.A. Happ should start the game over Severino. The Yankees disagree.

Here’s more on a few other AL clubs:

  • Surprisingly, Twins manager Paul Molitor lost his job on Tuesday. More changes appear to be coming to the team’s staff, too, as Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that bullpen coach Eddie Guardado and third base coach Gene Glynn are “likely” to exit their posts. The club also announced that it has parted with both strength and conditioning coordinator Perry Castellano and strength and conditioning assistant Erik Beiser. As for Molitor, who may stay in the organization, the Twins have offered him a job in player development, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune relays. Molitor’s bench coach, Derek Shelton, is seen as the top in-house candidate to become the Twins’ next manager, Heyman reports.
  • Sticking with the Twins, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said Tuesday that he expects to discuss both an on- and off-field job for franchise icon Joe Mauer for 2019, per Miller. The 35-year-old Mauer may have concluded his playing career this past Sunday, when he had what could go down as a memorable send-off. Mauer’s not under contract heading into 2019, so if the first baseman decides to play again, the Twins will need to re-sign him.
  • As of now, it appears first baseman Chris Davis will be back with the Orioles in 2019, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. The soon-to-be 33-year-old owns one of the majors’ worst contracts, so the Orioles’ only chance to get rid of Davis would be by releasing him. It appears the rebuilding club will continue with Davis on its roster, however, even after he posted an all-time worst season in 2018. Formerly an elite slugger, Davis hit a shockingly terrible .168/.243/.296 with 16 home runs in 522 plate appearances. He easily finished last in the majors in fWAR (minus-3.1) and wRC+ (46).
  • As of last weekend, offseason thumb surgery looked like a possibility for Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara. It turns out that he won’t need it, though, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets. Mazara’s thumb was a problem during the second half of the season, when he spent roughly a month on the disabled list and saw his production decline to a notable extent upon his return. All told, the 23-year-old hit .258/.317/.436 (96 wRC+) with 20 HRs in 536 trips to the plate.
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