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Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

What Should The Padres Do With Luis Arraez?

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One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.

One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.

That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.

Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.

With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.

If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!

What Should The Padres Do With Arraez?
Trade him and find a new first baseman. 47.90% (3,756 votes)
Extend him long-term to lessen the short-term financial burden. 32.96% (2,585 votes)
Play out his walk year and cut payroll elsewhere. 19.14% (1,501 votes)
Total Votes: 7,842

Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.

Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.

With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.

Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.

Luis Arraez Interested In Extension With Padres

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After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.

“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”

Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.

Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.

If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.

Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasized San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.

Luis Arraez Playing Through Torn Thumb Ligament

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Luis Arraez suffered an injury to his left thumb while sliding into third base during a game back on June 25, and the ongoing discomfort was enough for Arraez to skip playing in the All-Star Game so he could give his thumb a full four days of rest over the break.  Arraez revealed more specifics about the injury yesterday, telling Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase and other reporters that he has a torn ligament in his thumb.

The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (via X) sheds some more light on the situation, saying that Arraez was given the okay to keep playing after he received a fuller medical exam during the All-Star break.  As Arraez described things last month, he feels discomfort while swinging and fielding, but if the injury is ultimately all about pain tolerance, he wants to stay on the field if at all physically possible.

The results have been mixed, since Arraez is hitting only .280/.302/.352 in 130 plate appearances since June 25.  It is a noticeable step back from the .310/.345/.384 slash line he delivered in his first 360 PA of the season, and his overall .302/.334/.375 slash line represents the lowest slugging percentage and OBP of Arraez’s six Major League seasons, as well as the second-lowest batting average.

Arraez’s 103 wRC+ is still above the league average, if well below the 132 wRC+ he posted in 2022-23 while winning consecutive batting titles in both the AL (with the Twins in 2022) and NL (with the Marlins last year).  Naturally Arraez would prefer to be hitting closer to his usual standard, yet he likely feels that as long as he is still productive at the plate, he’ll continue to try and grind it out.  San Diego’s playoff chase is clearly another factor — the Padres enter today’s action holding the top wild card spot in the National League, and they sit only 2.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.

The Friars have achieved this success despite missing several key players for big chunks of the season.  It remains unclear when Fernando Tatis Jr. (femoral stress reaction) and Yu Darvish (restricted list due to a personal matter) will return to the active roster, though Joe Musgrove is expected to make his return from the 60-day injured list on Monday to start against the Pirates.  Arraez’s nagging thumb problem adds to the Padres’ list of concerns, though obviously the team is trying to manage the injury as best as possible, as Arraez is getting a good chunk of time at designated hitter.

Padres Notes: Arraez, Tatis, Musgrove

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The Padres completed their first half with a 6-3 loss to the Braves, and San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 50-49 record and a +12 run differential.  While the National League wild card race is still very crowded, the Padres are a game out of a playoff spot and still in good position to make a run in the second half, though they’ll need good health and continued production from their star players to make it happen.

With this in mind, Luis Arraez told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today that he won’t be playing in Tuesday’s All-Star Game.  Arraez was named to the NL’s bench squad and will still attend the festivities in Arlington since his parents and sister will be in attendance at the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but the infielder won’t be taking the field because “I need the rest” for his injured left thumb.

Arraez jammed his thumb while sliding into third base during the Padres’ 9-7 win over the Nationals on June 25, and has since been trying to play through some serious discomfort whenever he fields the ball or takes a swing.  Scans haven’t revealed any structural damage to the thumb, but Arraez recently told Acee and company that he has been wrapping the base of his thumb for every game.

“I don’t feel 100 percent.  But every time I touch the line, I want to give 100 percent to the manager and to my teammates,” Arraez said.

It is a testament to Arraez’s toughness and ability that he has still continued to hit even while playing through this pain, even if his power has been even more limited by his thumb injury.  Arraez is batting .309/.321/.346 over 56 plate appearances in the 13 games he has played since hurting his thumb, yet only two of his 17 hits have been for extra bases (both doubles).  Though Arraez is known for his contact hitting moreso than his power, that .346 slugging percentage is well below the .427 career mark he posted in his first five MLB seasons with the Twins and Marlins.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is also hoping to take a step towards getting back onto the field when he undergoes an MRI during the All-Star break.  Tatis was placed on the 10-day injured list on June 22 due to a right femoral stress reaction, and told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters on Friday that he was no longer feeling any pain in his right leg.  This is good news considering the uncertain nature of the injury, though while Tatis said he will “definitely” play again in 2024, he didn’t have any other updates on when exactly he might be able to return.

The fact that the injury was potentially seen as season-ending is certainly a concern, and itself perhaps a sign that Tatis isn’t out of the woods of being on a path to full fitness.  The upcoming MRI will potentially shed some light on a recovery timetable, and for now, Tatis’ baseball-related activity has been limited to only dry swings.

Moving from lineup injuries to rotation injuries, Joe Musgrove is slated for a full bullpen session on Wednesday.  Musgrove is eligible to return from the 60-day IL when his minimum absence time is up in late July, but his return from bone spurs in his right elbow will surely be delayed into August since the righty is only just in the early stages of his throwing progression.  As per Acee, Musgrove will limit himself to throwing only fastballs in his first couple of bullpen sessions.

Between this IL stint and another visit to the 10-day IL due to triceps tendinitis at the beginning of the season, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings in 2024, and struggled to a 5.66 ERA.  This marks the second straight injury-marred year for Musgrove, as a broken toe and shoulder inflammation limited him to 97 1/3 innings in 2023, though he was more effective when he did pitch, delivering a 3.05 ERA.

MLBTR Podcast: Luis Arráez To San Diego, Other Marlins Trade Candidates And Discussing A Potential Automated Strike Zone

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • When can we expect to see Paul Skenes called up by the Pirates and when do you think Jackson Holliday will be brought up again by the Orioles? (17:10)
  • I’m looking ahead at robo umps calling balls/strikes. Do you think it will dramatically affect counting stats for hitters while affecting pitchers stats negatively in the other direction? (20:55)
  • What measures can be implemented to stop teams like the Tigers from continually rebuilding and why do the Tigers hesitate to send struggling players to the minors? (31:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Showed Interest In Luis Arraez Prior To Trade To Padres

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The Marlins got a surprisingly early jump on the trade market this offseason, hammering out a rare May trade of significance when they shipped infielder Luis Arraez to San Diego last Friday in exchange for a package of four players. It’s not entirely shocking given both the Marlins’ awful start to the season and that their trade partner was the hyper-aggressive Padres, whose president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, leaves no stone unturned when a big-name player is even remotely available. However, it seems the Padres weren’t the only club sniffing around Arraez despite the early nature of his entry to the trade market; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that the Royals also showed interest in Arraez before the Padres pulled off that swap.

Rosenthal emphasizes that talks with the Kansas City were preliminary and did not advance far. Still, the mere interest from Kansas City is telling. The Royals had an aggressive winter that saw them spend $109MM across several free agent signings, and now that they’re out to a 20-15 start to the season, it seems they’re interested in further bolstering the club.

Arraez is a limited defender who’s below-average at second base, solid enough at first base and of course has the bat to handle designated hitter duties. The Royals presumably wouldn’t have used Arraez at first base much, thanks to the presence of Vinnie Pasquantino. In all likelihood, Kansas City would’ve given Arraez the bulk of his playing time at second base and designated hitter.

Instead, the Royals will hope for 26-year-old second baseman Michael Massey to continue his recent hot streak and look to get DH/outfielder Nelson Velazquez back to his 2023 form. Velazquez bashed 14 homers in 147 plate appearances for the Royals last year after being acquired in a deadline swap with the Cubs, but he’s hitting just .215/.284/.344 with a 30.4% strikeout rate this season as the team’s primary designated hitter.

Even looking beyond Arraez specifically, the mere fact that Kansas City was poking around the market for one of the presumably few players genuinely available on the trade market at such an early stage in the season signals that the Royals won’t necessarily be content with their offseason additions and any in-house reinforcements that might surface. It also likely signals a willingness to deal from the top end of their farm system. The Royals’ system isn’t viewed as particularly strong, so they’d have had to expend some of their most notable prospects in order to pique Miami’s interest.

Ultimately, news of interest from a team that didn’t wind up trading for a player only carries so much weight. The Royals’ interest in Arraez will be little more than a footnote that’s perhaps worth keeping in mind when he reaches free agency. But it’s also a portent for how the Royals could operate in the weeks and months ahead, and it gives some credence to the idea that they’ll be in the mix when other high-profile bats become available this summer. Whether it was expressed to the Royals that the Marlins would be willing to pay down the remainder of Arraez’s contract isn’t clear. Kansas City opened the season with a roughly $116MM payroll, per RosterResource, and has previously run its payroll as high as $143MM (under the previous ownership regime).

The Royals’ offseason activity already pointed to a win-now mindset, and so long as they remain in or on the periphery of postseason contention, it seems they’ll continue to keep their foot on the gas.

Marlins President Peter Bendix Discusses Luis Arraez Trade

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Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix spoke to reporters, including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, earlier today to discuss last night’s blockbuster trade of infielder Luis Arraez to the Padres and the Marlins’ outlook moving forward after the deal.

In his comments, Bendix indicated that he and the rest of the organization is “very disappointed” about the team’s brutal 9-25 start to the 2024 season and acknowledged that the team is “unlikely” to make the playoffs this year after doing so for the first time in a full season since 2003 last year.

“We’re very disappointed,” Bendix said, per McPherson. “I know the players are very disappointed. Everybody here is very disappointed about that. But it is also something that we can’t change right now.”

In light of the club’s challenging path to the postseason, Bendix said that he felt the deal offer by the Padres was “too good to walk past,” with Craig Mish of the Miami Herald adding that Bendix noted he was concerned that the deal may not have still been on the table had the Marlins waited until later in the calendar to make the move. Bendix’s willingness to strike early on the trade market extends back to 2021 during his time as GM of the Rays, when the club traded shortstop Willy Adames to the Brewers as part of the other May blockbuster in recent memory.

Bendix went on to praise the return the club received for Arraez services, which consists of 2023 first-rounder Dillon Head, Double-A outfielder Jakob Marsee, Double-A first baseman Nathan Martorella, and reliever Woo-Suk Go. Both Head and Marsee rank in the top 10 on lists of top Padres prospects from both Baseball America and MLB.com, though Go is an established professional on a two-year, $4.5MM deal with seven KBO seasons under his belt despite not yet having made his big league debut.

Given the fact that none of the players joining the Marlins in return for Arraez have played above the Double-A level in stateside ball, it’s fair to wonder what sort of timeline for competitiveness Miami brass envisions for the club. Bendix avoided specifics during his conversation with reporters, however. While he made clear throughout his comments that the club’s long-term goal is to win “90-plus games year-in and year-out”, he refused to label the club’s current trajectory a “rebuild” while simultaneously noting that there isn’t a “definitive timeline” for a return to competitiveness.

That foggy outlook appears to extend to the club’s plans going forward. While Bendix made clear that the Arraez move was the first in a “series of difficult decisions” the club would be making in service of a longer-term outlook, he didn’t get into specifics about what other players the club could look to shop from the big league roster. For his part, Bendix seems to have no desire to commit to retaining any of the big league club’s current players. The club’s top baseball ops official indicated to Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640 that he “doesn’t know what to expect” when asked whether or not 2022 All Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. who is just 26 years old and is under team control through the end of the 2026 season, would remain in the organization through the end of the season.

Pending free agents such as first baseman Josh Bell, shortstop Tim Anderson, and left-hander Tanner Scott all seem like good bets to move at some point this season given Bendix’s acknowledged plan to prioritize future value over the current season, but Arraez’s departure and Bendix’s unwillingness to commit to Chisholm both indicate that the club is not averse to dealing more controllable players as well. Looking beyond Chisholm, the Marlins frequently flirted with dealing from their starting rotation over the winter and it’s easy to imagine any of Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett being made available this summer should they be healthy and effective enough to command a significant return. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored the club’s trade candidates in detail earlier this week, prior to the Arraez deal.

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