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Luis Arraez

Padres Notes: Arraez, Tatis, Musgrove

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The Padres completed their first half with a 6-3 loss to the Braves, and San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 50-49 record and a +12 run differential.  While the National League wild card race is still very crowded, the Padres are a game out of a playoff spot and still in good position to make a run in the second half, though they’ll need good health and continued production from their star players to make it happen.

With this in mind, Luis Arraez told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today that he won’t be playing in Tuesday’s All-Star Game.  Arraez was named to the NL’s bench squad and will still attend the festivities in Arlington since his parents and sister will be in attendance at the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but the infielder won’t be taking the field because “I need the rest” for his injured left thumb.

Arraez jammed his thumb while sliding into third base during the Padres’ 9-7 win over the Nationals on June 25, and has since been trying to play through some serious discomfort whenever he fields the ball or takes a swing.  Scans haven’t revealed any structural damage to the thumb, but Arraez recently told Acee and company that he has been wrapping the base of his thumb for every game.

“I don’t feel 100 percent.  But every time I touch the line, I want to give 100 percent to the manager and to my teammates,” Arraez said.

It is a testament to Arraez’s toughness and ability that he has still continued to hit even while playing through this pain, even if his power has been even more limited by his thumb injury.  Arraez is batting .309/.321/.346 over 56 plate appearances in the 13 games he has played since hurting his thumb, yet only two of his 17 hits have been for extra bases (both doubles).  Though Arraez is known for his contact hitting moreso than his power, that .346 slugging percentage is well below the .427 career mark he posted in his first five MLB seasons with the Twins and Marlins.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is also hoping to take a step towards getting back onto the field when he undergoes an MRI during the All-Star break.  Tatis was placed on the 10-day injured list on June 22 due to a right femoral stress reaction, and told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters on Friday that he was no longer feeling any pain in his right leg.  This is good news considering the uncertain nature of the injury, though while Tatis said he will “definitely” play again in 2024, he didn’t have any other updates on when exactly he might be able to return.

The fact that the injury was potentially seen as season-ending is certainly a concern, and itself perhaps a sign that Tatis isn’t out of the woods of being on a path to full fitness.  The upcoming MRI will potentially shed some light on a recovery timetable, and for now, Tatis’ baseball-related activity has been limited to only dry swings.

Moving from lineup injuries to rotation injuries, Joe Musgrove is slated for a full bullpen session on Wednesday.  Musgrove is eligible to return from the 60-day IL when his minimum absence time is up in late July, but his return from bone spurs in his right elbow will surely be delayed into August since the righty is only just in the early stages of his throwing progression.  As per Acee, Musgrove will limit himself to throwing only fastballs in his first couple of bullpen sessions.

Between this IL stint and another visit to the 10-day IL due to triceps tendinitis at the beginning of the season, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings in 2024, and struggled to a 5.66 ERA.  This marks the second straight injury-marred year for Musgrove, as a broken toe and shoulder inflammation limited him to 97 1/3 innings in 2023, though he was more effective when he did pitch, delivering a 3.05 ERA.

MLBTR Podcast: Luis Arráez To San Diego, Other Marlins Trade Candidates And Discussing A Potential Automated Strike Zone

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • When can we expect to see Paul Skenes called up by the Pirates and when do you think Jackson Holliday will be brought up again by the Orioles? (17:10)
  • I’m looking ahead at robo umps calling balls/strikes. Do you think it will dramatically affect counting stats for hitters while affecting pitchers stats negatively in the other direction? (20:55)
  • What measures can be implemented to stop teams like the Tigers from continually rebuilding and why do the Tigers hesitate to send struggling players to the minors? (31:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Showed Interest In Luis Arraez Prior To Trade To Padres

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The Marlins got a surprisingly early jump on the trade market this offseason, hammering out a rare May trade of significance when they shipped infielder Luis Arraez to San Diego last Friday in exchange for a package of four players. It’s not entirely shocking given both the Marlins’ awful start to the season and that their trade partner was the hyper-aggressive Padres, whose president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, leaves no stone unturned when a big-name player is even remotely available. However, it seems the Padres weren’t the only club sniffing around Arraez despite the early nature of his entry to the trade market; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that the Royals also showed interest in Arraez before the Padres pulled off that swap.

Rosenthal emphasizes that talks with the Kansas City were preliminary and did not advance far. Still, the mere interest from Kansas City is telling. The Royals had an aggressive winter that saw them spend $109MM across several free agent signings, and now that they’re out to a 20-15 start to the season, it seems they’re interested in further bolstering the club.

Arraez is a limited defender who’s below-average at second base, solid enough at first base and of course has the bat to handle designated hitter duties. The Royals presumably wouldn’t have used Arraez at first base much, thanks to the presence of Vinnie Pasquantino. In all likelihood, Kansas City would’ve given Arraez the bulk of his playing time at second base and designated hitter.

Instead, the Royals will hope for 26-year-old second baseman Michael Massey to continue his recent hot streak and look to get DH/outfielder Nelson Velazquez back to his 2023 form. Velazquez bashed 14 homers in 147 plate appearances for the Royals last year after being acquired in a deadline swap with the Cubs, but he’s hitting just .215/.284/.344 with a 30.4% strikeout rate this season as the team’s primary designated hitter.

Even looking beyond Arraez specifically, the mere fact that Kansas City was poking around the market for one of the presumably few players genuinely available on the trade market at such an early stage in the season signals that the Royals won’t necessarily be content with their offseason additions and any in-house reinforcements that might surface. It also likely signals a willingness to deal from the top end of their farm system. The Royals’ system isn’t viewed as particularly strong, so they’d have had to expend some of their most notable prospects in order to pique Miami’s interest.

Ultimately, news of interest from a team that didn’t wind up trading for a player only carries so much weight. The Royals’ interest in Arraez will be little more than a footnote that’s perhaps worth keeping in mind when he reaches free agency. But it’s also a portent for how the Royals could operate in the weeks and months ahead, and it gives some credence to the idea that they’ll be in the mix when other high-profile bats become available this summer. Whether it was expressed to the Royals that the Marlins would be willing to pay down the remainder of Arraez’s contract isn’t clear. Kansas City opened the season with a roughly $116MM payroll, per RosterResource, and has previously run its payroll as high as $143MM (under the previous ownership regime).

The Royals’ offseason activity already pointed to a win-now mindset, and so long as they remain in or on the periphery of postseason contention, it seems they’ll continue to keep their foot on the gas.

Marlins President Peter Bendix Discusses Luis Arraez Trade

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Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix spoke to reporters, including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, earlier today to discuss last night’s blockbuster trade of infielder Luis Arraez to the Padres and the Marlins’ outlook moving forward after the deal.

In his comments, Bendix indicated that he and the rest of the organization is “very disappointed” about the team’s brutal 9-25 start to the 2024 season and acknowledged that the team is “unlikely” to make the playoffs this year after doing so for the first time in a full season since 2003 last year.

“We’re very disappointed,” Bendix said, per McPherson. “I know the players are very disappointed. Everybody here is very disappointed about that. But it is also something that we can’t change right now.”

In light of the club’s challenging path to the postseason, Bendix said that he felt the deal offer by the Padres was “too good to walk past,” with Craig Mish of the Miami Herald adding that Bendix noted he was concerned that the deal may not have still been on the table had the Marlins waited until later in the calendar to make the move. Bendix’s willingness to strike early on the trade market extends back to 2021 during his time as GM of the Rays, when the club traded shortstop Willy Adames to the Brewers as part of the other May blockbuster in recent memory.

Bendix went on to praise the return the club received for Arraez services, which consists of 2023 first-rounder Dillon Head, Double-A outfielder Jakob Marsee, Double-A first baseman Nathan Martorella, and reliever Woo-Suk Go. Both Head and Marsee rank in the top 10 on lists of top Padres prospects from both Baseball America and MLB.com, though Go is an established professional on a two-year, $4.5MM deal with seven KBO seasons under his belt despite not yet having made his big league debut.

Given the fact that none of the players joining the Marlins in return for Arraez have played above the Double-A level in stateside ball, it’s fair to wonder what sort of timeline for competitiveness Miami brass envisions for the club. Bendix avoided specifics during his conversation with reporters, however. While he made clear throughout his comments that the club’s long-term goal is to win “90-plus games year-in and year-out”, he refused to label the club’s current trajectory a “rebuild” while simultaneously noting that there isn’t a “definitive timeline” for a return to competitiveness.

That foggy outlook appears to extend to the club’s plans going forward. While Bendix made clear that the Arraez move was the first in a “series of difficult decisions” the club would be making in service of a longer-term outlook, he didn’t get into specifics about what other players the club could look to shop from the big league roster. For his part, Bendix seems to have no desire to commit to retaining any of the big league club’s current players. The club’s top baseball ops official indicated to Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640 that he “doesn’t know what to expect” when asked whether or not 2022 All Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. who is just 26 years old and is under team control through the end of the 2026 season, would remain in the organization through the end of the season.

Pending free agents such as first baseman Josh Bell, shortstop Tim Anderson, and left-hander Tanner Scott all seem like good bets to move at some point this season given Bendix’s acknowledged plan to prioritize future value over the current season, but Arraez’s departure and Bendix’s unwillingness to commit to Chisholm both indicate that the club is not averse to dealing more controllable players as well. Looking beyond Chisholm, the Marlins frequently flirted with dealing from their starting rotation over the winter and it’s easy to imagine any of Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett being made available this summer should they be healthy and effective enough to command a significant return. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored the club’s trade candidates in detail earlier this week, prior to the Arraez deal.

Padres Acquire Luis Arraez

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12:21PM: The Marlins are eating almost all of the roughly $8.5MM owed to Arraez this season, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link).  San Diego will owe Arraez only the MLB minimum salary for the rest of 2024, so between this arrangement and moving Go’s salary, the Padres look to have actually reduced their luxury tax number with this trade.

TODAY, 9:34AM: Both teams have officially announced the trade, and the Padres will also be receiving cash considerations from the Marlins.  This will lower the Padres’ financial hit, and give them a bit more breathing room under the luxury tax threshold.

MAY 3: The Padres and Marlins have lined up on a rare May blockbuster. San Diego is reportedly acquiring two-time batting champ Luis Arraez from Miami for four players: prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee and Nathan Martorella, as well as reliever Woo-Suk Go.

Arraez’s tenure in Miami ends after a season and five weeks. The Fish swapped Pablo López to the Twins to acquire him over the 2022-23 offseason. Arraez played up to expectations in the first season. He flirted with .400 for a few months, and while he didn’t maintain that otherworldly pace, he cruised to a second straight batting title and helped Miami to the playoffs. Arraez finished with a .354/.393/.469 line through 617 plate appearances.

As the batting titles would suggest, Arraez has developed into perhaps the game’s best pure contact hitter. He has walked more often than he’s struck out over the course of his career. The Venezuela native has punched out in only 7.5% of his plate appearances in the big leagues. That’s down to a meager 6.4% clip going back to the start of 2022. That leads qualified hitters by more than three percentage points. Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan is the only other player to strike out less than 10% of the time in that span.

Arraez has tallied 148 plate appearances over 33 games this season. His production is down slightly, as he’s hitting .299/.347/.372 without a home run. That’s not much of a concern for San Diego. Arraez is still making contact at an elite rate. He has never been a huge power threat, topping out at 10 longballs a year ago. It’s unlikely that San Diego feels differently about Arraez than they did during Spring Training, when they reportedly made a push for both him and starter Jesús Luzardo.

Going back to the start of 2022, Arraez is a .331/.380/.437 hitter in nearly 1400 plate appearances. He has hit at the top of the lineup in Miami and should do the same with the Padres. San Diego has been using Jurickson Profar in the leadoff spot of late. While Profar’s out to a fantastic start to the season, he can slide down a few spots in a suddenly deeper lineup.

As great a hitter as Arraez is, his game isn’t without flaws. He’s at best a fringe defender at second base. Defensive Runs Saved has generally graded him around league average with the glove, though it has soured on his work in 281 innings this season. Statcast has long panned him as a defender, grading him negatively in all but one year of his career. Statcast estimates he’s been 24 runs below average in nearly 2700 career innings at the keystone.

The Twins played Arraez more frequently at first base back in 2022. He rated better there defensively, although he doesn’t have the traditional power profile expected at the position. That doesn’t seem to be much of an issue for the Padres. Incumbent first baseman Jake Cronenworth is also a hit-over-power player who began his career in the middle infield.

Arraez could see occasional reps at first and second base, but he’s likely to get the bulk of his at-bats as a designated hitter. The Friars have Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado as their projected starting infield. Machado was limited to DH for a couple weeks as he recovered from last fall’s elbow surgery. He made his return to third base last Friday, and while he has continued shuffling between the hot corner and DH since then, he’ll eventually work back to everyday third base reps.

Machado’s return to third base would have left the Friars without a clear everyday option at designated hitter. Rookie Graham Pauley has gotten some reps there, but he has hit .125/.125/.313 to start his MLB career. Arraez should solidify that spot while still having enough defensive flexibility to allow manager Mike Shildt to rotate other infielders through the position when they need a break on defense.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from pursuing star talent, so it’s not particularly surprising that they’d keep an eye on Arraez. The timing of the trade, though, is a stunner. It’s incredibly rare to see players of that caliber moved this early into a season. Perhaps the best recent comparison is the May 21, 2021 swap that sent Willy Adames and Trevor Richards from the Rays to the Brewers for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen.

Peter Bendix was serving as Tampa Bay’s general manager (#2 in the front office hierarchy) at the time of the Adames deal. He’s now in charge of baseball operations in Miami. Bendix is evidently not averse to making a major splash at an atypical time if the opportunity presents itself.

The Marlins followed up a quiet offseason with an absolutely terrible April. They enter this weekend’s series in Oakland with a 9-24 record. Whatever slim chance they had of repeating last year’s surprising playoff berth has all but evaporated. Miami was going to be a deadline seller, so there’s sense in moving early if another team put the right offer on the table.

Miami felt that was the case with a four-player return centered around San Diego’s 2023 first-rounder. The Padres selected Head 25th overall out of an Illinois high school. A left-handed hitting center fielder, he split his first professional season between rookie ball and Low-A. Head ranked eighth among San Diego prospects at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Law’s organizational write-up at The Athletic.

Both outlets credit Head with excellent speed and the chance to be a plus defensive center fielder at his peak. BA writes that he’s likely to be a contact-oriented offensive player without a ton of power, but Law wrote that professional scouts were impressed by the bat speed he showed after being drafted. Head has spent his age-19 season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. He’s out to a relatively slow start, hitting .237/.317/.366 with a 24% strikeout rate.

While Head is a long-term development play, Marsee has an outside shot at getting to the big leagues in 2024. A sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan two years ago, he dramatically improved his stock with a .274/.413/.428 showing between High-A and Double-A last season. Marsee followed up with a massive performance in the Arizona Fall League. There was even some speculation he could compete for the Opening Day center field spot, but it quickly became clear that Jackson Merrill was above him in that discussion.

Marsee, 23, ranked between 10th and 12th on the respective organizational prospect lists at BA and The Athletic. He’s credited with advanced plate discipline and instincts but without a ton of power potential. Marsee has played almost exclusively center field in the minors and likely projects as a fourth outfielder. He has spent this season at Double-A San Antonio, where has slumped to a .187/.337/.333 slash through his first 22 games.

Martorella, who is also 23, was a fifth-round pick out of Cal in that 2022 draft. The left-handed hitter has a career .269/.373/.447 batting line in nearly 800 professional plate appearances. He’s out to an excellent .294/.392/.435 start with a pair of homers and six doubles through 102 trips to the plate in San Antonio. Martorella is limited to first base or designated hitter, so he’ll need to hit a lot to be a regular, but he has shown a well-rounded offensive profile in pro ball.

Rounding out the return is Go, whom the Padres just signed out of Korea last winter. San Diego inked the 25-year-old righty to a two-year, $4.5MM deal. He’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary. He’ll make $2.25MM next year and is guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $3MM mutual option for 2026. As is the case with most players signed out of a foreign professional league, his contract stipulates that he return to free agency at the end of the deal even though he’ll be well shy of six years of MLB service.

Go has yet to pitch in the major leagues. The Padres optioned him to Double-A after he struggled in Spring Training. He has tossed 12 2/3 innings there, allowing seven runs (six earned) on 14 hits. Go has fanned 15 hitters while issuing four walks. He was a closer for the KBO’s LG Twins before making the jump to MLB. He turned in a 3.18 ERA over parts of seven KBO seasons. Go missed plenty of bats in Korea but struggled to consistently throw strikes. Scouting reports before his signing generally suggested he projected as a middle reliever at the MLB level.

It’s the first of what is likely to be a handful of trades for the Marlins over the next few months. Miami seems set to kick off at least a retool, if not a full-scale rebuild. Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among a number of players whom the Fish could put on the market. It’s unlikely the Arraez trade will open the floodgates three months before the deadline, but it’s clear Miami is already willing to engage in conversations.

Making trades well in advance of the deadline would also allow the Marlins to offload a greater portion of players’ contracts. Budgetary constraints are always present for a franchise that annually runs payrolls in the bottom third of the league. Miami essentially sat out free agency until taking a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson (which hasn’t worked out) at the beginning of Spring Training.

Arraez was one of the higher-paid players on the roster. He’s making $10.6MM this season after losing an arbitration case in February — the second straight year he and the team went to a hearing. Around $8.5MM is yet to be paid. Assuming there are no cash considerations involved, they’ll offload that but assume around $1.4MM of Go’s salary. That amounts to just over $7MM in savings. The team’s estimated player payroll now sits around $92MM, as calculated by RosterResource.

The Padres absorb that money, which is no small matter for a team that spent most of the offseason cutting spending. RosterResource estimates their actual player payroll around $174MM. Their competitive balance tax number is far higher, reflecting their slate of backloaded contracts. RosterResource calculates their CBT in the $232MM range. They’re around $4.5MM below this year’s $237MM base threshold, a marker they were reluctant to cross last winter.

A team’s CBT calculation isn’t determined until the end of the season. This surely isn’t the last of the Padres’ trade activity. Their deadline direction could go in a number of ways depending on how the team performs over the next few months. It’s not even out of the question the Padres fall out of the race and put Arraez back on the trade block in July, though that’s surely not what the front office currently intends.

Even if Arraez finishes the 2024 season in San Diego, he could be a trade candidate next offseason. He’ll go through arbitration once more before hitting free agency during the 2025-26 offseason. The two-time All-Star is likely to command a salary in the $14-16MM range for his final year of club control. The Padres could ostensibly plug him in at second base and move Bogaerts back to shortstop if Kim departs as a free agent, but that’s not something with which the team will concern itself in the short term.

For now, they’ll plug Arraez at the top of the lineup as they push for a playoff spot. They’ll get a few more months of production than they would’ve had they waited to make a traditional deadline move, albeit at the cost of a trio of mid-level prospects and around three-quarters of Arraez’s 2024 salary. There may not be any more huge moves in the next couple weeks, but it’s a precursor to what should be busy summers in both South Florida and Southern California.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were nearing agreement on an Arraez deal for three prospects and a reliever. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed there was an Arraez trade in place. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins’ return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

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A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

Padres Tried To Trade For Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo

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A year after spending north of $400MM in free agency, the Padres spent a total of $50MM on free agents this offseason, adding just $9.35MM to the 2024 payroll. Indeed, in an effort to slash the budget, president of baseball operations A. J. Preller made most of his biggest acquisitions on the trade market. The Padres added Michael King, Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe from the Yankees in exchange for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, and several months later, they used Thorpe as one of the headlining pieces in a trade for White Sox starter Dylan Cease. They also brought in Enyel De Los Santos from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow.

However, those weren’t the only notable trades Preller pursued. Throughout the offseason, the Padres were reported to have shown interest in dealing for ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and outfielders Sal Frelick and Jarren Duran. Now, you can add Luis Arraez and Jesús Luzardo to that list of targets. According to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made “a strong offer” for Arraez this spring, and they might have been even more interested in Luzardo – at least until they dealt for Cease in mid-March. 

While it never seemed all that likely the Marlins would part with Luzardo this offseason, he was the subject of significant trade interest. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles were all reported to have checked in on the southpaw. Like all three of those clubs, the Padres were seeking starting pitching this winter, so it hardly comes as a shock that they had their on eye Luzardo. The 26-year-old made 32 starts last year with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts. His 3.69 SIERA would have led the Padres rotation, while many of his other numbers would have ranked second behind the now-departed Blake Snell. With a $5.5MM salary for 2024 and three full seasons of team control remaining, he was an ideal trade candidate, especially for a team looking to reduce payroll while still fielding a competitive roster.

That the Padres were so interested in Arraez is much more surprising. Like Luzardo, he is a young but proven player with a salary well below his value on the open market. However, he was not the subject of any substantive trade rumors over the winter. Moreover, he plays the infield, arguably the only area San Diego didn’t need to upgrade. While the Padres were linked to several outfielders on the free agent and trade markets, the Padres seemed set with Jake Cronenworth at first base, Xander Bogaerts at second, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and, eventually, Manny Machado at third. That doesn’t leave much room for another All-Star infielder.

As Rosenthal and Lin suggest, the Padres might have hoped to trade Cronenworth and play Arraez at first. However, Cronenworth’s seven-year, $80MM contract that began this season simultaneously makes him inexpensive (in terms of annual salary) yet still rather difficult to trade. Alternatively, the Friars might have been more worried about Machado’s ability to play third base this year than they let on. They could have been planning to move Bogaerts back to shortstop, slide Kim over to third, and plug Arraez in at second. When Machado was healthy enough to return, Arraez could have taken over primary DH duties. Finally, it’s possible Preller simply saw an opportunity to add a star talent on a low salary and chose to make an offer and figure the rest out later. Too much talent is hardly a bad problem to have, and the Padres seem to like stockpiling infielders.

Rosenthal and Lin do not suggest Miami was actively shopping Arraez. However, their report implies that Preller’s offer was enough to tempt Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Needless to say, Bendix didn’t pull the trigger, but according to Rosenthal and Lin, that was largely because he “feared [the Marlins] could not adequately replace Arraez.” The report does not address how close the Padres might have come to landing Luzardo before ultimately acquiring Cease; it’s not clear if Bendix ever seriously considered sending Luzardo to San Diego.

The Fish aren’t off to a good start if they’re hoping to contend in 2024. Still, they’re under no immediate pressure to trade either Arraez or Luzardo, arguably their two best (healthy) players. Arraez has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025, while Luzardo will be eligible for arbitration through the 2026 campaign.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports

Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Luis Arráez

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Arbiters have ruled in favor of the Marlins in their arbitration hearing with infielder Luis Arráez, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. He’ll make a salary of $10.6MM this year as opposed to the $12MM he was seeking.

Arráez, 27 in April, is the best contact hitter in the game. Last year, he struck out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the best rate in the majors. Jeff McNeil of the Mets was second among qualified hitters at 10%. Arráez flirted with .400 for a while but ultimately finished the season with a batting average of “only” .354. Again, that was easily the best in the majors, with Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. second at .337.

The other parts of his game are a bit less impressive. He’s never been a huge power threat, with last year’s 10 home runs a new personal best. His second base defense is also questionable. Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be four better than par last year but Outs Above Average had him at a dismal -10. But thanks largely to his bat, FanGraphs considered him to be 3.4 wins above replacement on the year with Baseball Reference at 4.9.

He first qualified for arbitration going into 2022 as a Super Two player, then with the Twins. He and that club avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.125MM salary. He and the Twins didn’t agree to a 2023 salary prior to that year’s deadline but he was traded to the Marlins prior to the hearing. He ended up beating the Fish in that case, earning $6.1MM last year instead of the $5MM filing figure.

Going into the 2023-24 offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $10.8MM salary this year. The club and the player’s camp filed on either side of that figure, but arbiters have to choose one figure or the other and can’t choose a middle ground number, siding with the Marlins this time. Arráez will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration for his 2025 salary, after which he’s slated to become a free agent.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Luis Arraez Open To Extension With Marlins

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Infielder Luis Arraez spoke today to Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, saying that he has not had any extension talks with the Marlins, though he would be open to the idea if they approached him. “They haven’t talked to me about an extension, but if they do, I’m available,” he said. “I love Miami, I love my teammates. I feel at home when I play with those guys.”

Arraez, 27 in April, came over to the Marlins from the Twins in a trade prior to 2023. His first season with Miami saw him produce in fairly similar fashion to his time in Minnesota, as a high-contact bat that’s extremely tough to strike out. He was punched out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the lowest among qualified hitters, as Jeff McNeil was second at 10%. Arraez flirted with .400 for a while but his batting average eventually finished at a still-excellent .354. He added 10 home runs and his total offensive contributions translated to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than the league average hitter.

He’s generally not considered as gifted on his defense as he is with a bat in his hands. At his primary position of second base, he’s been graded as worth two Defensive Runs Saved in his career and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at almost exactly league average. Outs Above Average, however, isn’t enthused at all. Arraez is currently at -25 OAA in his career, with a tally of -10 in 2023 alone. The Twins had moved him off that spot and into a first base role prior to the trade but the Marlins put him back at the keystone this year.

Perhaps the Fish will move Arraez to first base down the line, but he fits better at second for the time being. First baseman Josh Bell triggered his player option and will be staying in Miami for one more season, barring a trade. Arraez can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons and could perhaps move over to first after Bell hits free agency a year from now. As a Super Two player, Arraez has already had a couple of passes through arbitration, making $2.125M in 2022 and $6.1MM this year with two more to go. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $10.8MM next year.

Given his unique skill set, finding a perfect comparison for an extension is a bit tricky. McNeil, mentioned above, is a similar contact-over-power player who was between four and five years of service time a year ago when he signed a four-year, $50MM extension with the Mets, $12.5MM average annual value, with a club option for 2027. McNeil wasn’t a Super Two player and had only banked $3MM in his first pass through arb. He was also significantly older, going into his age-31 season, whereas Arraez is only going to be 27 next year. However, McNeil is considered a better all-around player and stronger defender, grading out well at second base, third base and the outfield corners. He had accrued 15.9 wins above replacement at the time of that deal, according to FanGraphs, while Arraez is currently at 10.6. Baseball Reference is a bit kinder to Arraez, 15.2 bWAR, since it uses DRS while FanGraphs uses a hybrid of UZR and OAA.

Arraez should be able to argue for a larger contract than the one McNeil got based on his youth and greater leverage from his Super Two-boosted salary. But on the other hand, if he is destined to move off an up-the-middle position eventually, that will subtract from his appeal and perhaps reduce the willingness of the Marlins to make a long-term investment in him. Arraez reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Twins prior to 2022, though that was presumably far lower than any offer he would receive now. At that point, he was just about to go into arbitration for the first time and was coming off a relative down year in 2021. Since then, he’s had two excellent seasons while banking over $8MM.

If the Marlins do have interest in betting on Arraez for the long term, there is little stopping them at the moment. They don’t generally run high payrolls but also have almost nothing on the books in the future. Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García are the only players with contracts for 2025, with that being the last guaranteed year for Garcia.

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