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Marco Estrada

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Harvey, Nunez, Chapman

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With the season winding down, Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling writes that both right-hander Marco Estrada and outfielder Dalton Pompey are likely nearing the end of their time with the Blue Jays. Estrada, 35, is a free agent at season’s end, and the Toronto organization has rotation locks in Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Ryan Borucki lined up for next season, with several other younger options on hand in the organization as well. As for Pompey, Zwelling notes that he’ll be out of options in 2019 and no longer fits into a crowded outfield picture in Toronto, suggesting that the 25-year-old will either be traded to another organization or simply designated for assignment as the Jays look to protect prospects in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Orioles prospect Hunter Harvey has suffered yet another setback in his return from elbow troubles, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The O’s had planned to send Harvey, a former Top 10 overall draft pick and once a consensus top 100 prospect, to the Arizona Fall League following the season. Those plans have been scrapped, and Harvey will cease throwing in the instructional league as well. The 23-year-old righty has already had Tommy John surgery in his young professional career, and he’s also battled shoulder troubles this year as well. There’s little doubting Harvey’s raw talent, but at this point, he’s thrown just 176 1/3 innings in parts of five professional seasons due to his inability to stay healthy. The 2018 season accounted for 32 1/3 of those frames, during which Harvey limped to a 5.57 ERA with a 30-to-9 K/BB ratio.
  • Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez exited tonight’s game due to soreness in his right knee, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. It’s the latest in a long series of knee injuries that have hampered the versatile infielder dating back to last season. Nunez recently acknowledged that he’s played through discomfort for much of the season, posting a woeful .264/.288/.378 slash through 494 plate appearances along the way. Manager Alex Cora doesn’t believe Nunez’s injury to be serious, but he’ll be out of the lineup tomorrow at the very least. Nunez’s 400th plate appearance boosted the value of his 2019 player option from $4MM to $5MM (per WEEI’s Rob Bradford), and his ongoing knee issues create a possibility that he’ll simply opt to return at that rate for the 2019 season.
  • The Yankees activated Aroldis Chapman from the 10-day disabled list earlier today, but Dan Martin of the New York Post writes that he’ll be eased back into the closer’s role as the Yanks try to be mindful of the knee issues that have slowed him in 2018. “We want to get him back in the mix,” said manager Aaron Boone. “…and in a regular role sooner than later, but we also want to make sure we are using him in big spots here down the stretch so he is firing on all cylinders as we head into October.” With Chapman, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez all back from the disabled list, the Yankees are more or less at full strength, but they’re still likely to need to get through an upstart Athletics club the Wild Card game in order to orchestrate a return to the American League Division Series.

Kendrys Morales, Marco Estrada Clear Revocable Trade Waivers

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Blue Jays designated hitter Kendrys Morales and right-hander Marco Estrada have both gone unclaimed on revocable trade waivers and are now eligible to be traded to any team, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports (on Twitter). It’s not a surprise to see either player clear, given the relatively sizable amounts remaining on each player’s contract.

Morales is in the second season of a three-year, $33MM contract in Toronto. While he’s recently gone through a near-historic hot streak at the plate, homering in seven consecutive games to boost his overall batting line to a strong .261/.342/.480 with 21 long balls, he’s still a 35-year-old DH owed about $13MM through the end of the 2019 season.

As for Estrada, he’s struggled through back issues and performed poorly of late, pitching to a 6.53 ERA with a 19-to-15 K/BB ratio across eight starts (30 1/3 innings). He’s on a one-year, $13MM contract and is owed about $2.36MM of that total through the end of the year — a hefty sum for perhaps six starts from an ailing 35-year-old.

The Blue Jays could always add some cash in order to help facilitate a trade involving either player, though it’d require a rather sizable sum in the case of Morales — recent hot streak notwithstanding. The Brewers and Mariners are among the teams that have been connected to rotation upgrades in recent weeks, though it’s not clear whether either organization will ultimately find a deal to their liking. It’s tougher to see any sort of market for Morales developing, though the Jays certainly figure to gauge interest over the next couple of days.

AL East Notes: Orioles Prospects, Yankees, Estrada

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Outfielder Yusniel Diaz, the prospect who headlined last month’s Manny Machado trade, has struggled since being dealt to the Orioles but is beginning to show signs of life in Double-A, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles have made some alterations to Diaz’s stance at the plate that they feel will be beneficial in the long run, even if the early returns have been lackluster. Manager Gary Kendall spoke to Meoli about Diaz’s impressive tools even as he fights through a slump (perhaps partially due to a paltry .234 BABIP, Meoli notes), and the column is filled with quotes from Kendall on his overall impressions of the 21-year-old Diaz. Meoli also checks in on the progress of all four other players involved in the Machado trade.

A few more notes from the division…

  • Didi Gregorius swung a bat Sunday for the first time since hitting the DL, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. The Yankees are optimistic about the outlook for both Gregorius and catcher Gary Sanchez, King writes, adding that Sanchez will head out on a Triple-A rehab assignment today. Sanchez will step right back into the lineup for regular work once healthy, manager Aaron Boone tells King. Boone wouldn’t commit to Gregorius being ready for activation when eligible but said he’s “optimistic.” Meanwhile, King notes that there’s still no meaningful update on Aaron Judge, who has yet to resume swinging as he waits for a chip fracture in his wrist to mend.
  • Trade candidate Marco Estrada didn’t do much to impress other clubs with a short start this weekend, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. After Estrada failed to complete three innings against the Phillies, the Blue Jays righty acknowledged to Nicholson-Smith and others that he’s been pitching through ongoing back discomfort over the past couple of weeks. That’s hardly a new issue for Estrada, who has struggled with a herniated disk in his back in the past and spent time on the DL due to back issues. He’s allowed at least three runs in five of his past six starts, including four starts with either four or five runs allowed in that time.

Players Who Have Cleared Revocable Trade Waivers

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It’s been somewhat quiet on this front in 2018, but we’ll use this post to keep track of the names of all of the players who’ve reportedly cleared revocable trade waivers. As is the case every year, there are a few things that should be re-emphasized before diving into names.

First and foremost, the vast majority of Major League players will be placed on revocable trade waivers this month — many assuredly already have been — with most instances going unreported. By month’s end, there will likely be dozens of players who have cleared waivers without garnering any sort of headlines. It also bears repeating that players can still be traded in September, but Aug. 31 serves as the deadline for postseason eligibility, making it a sort of soft trade deadline. Deals of note are rarely consummated in September, though Juan Nicasio did change hands after Aug. 31 in 2017.

Lastly, for those who aren’t familiar with the inner-workings of waiver trades or simply need a quick refresher, MLBTR published a full explanation of how August trades work to kick off the month. We’ll keep this post updated throughout the remainder of the month for those who wish to bookmark it.

Onto the names…

(Last update: 8/29)

  • Jerry Blevins, Mets (link): Blevins has a long track record of shutting down left-handed opponents, but lefties have clobbered him so far in 2018 while righties have been unusually ineffective. He’s a specialist who’s owed $1.23MM through season’s end before reaching free agency, making him an expensive piece with a fairly limited role.
  • Kendrys Morales & Marco Estrada, Blue Jays (link): Both relatively expensive veterans went unclaimed, with Morales still owed $13MM through the end of the 2019 season and Estrada owed more than $2.5MM through the end of the current campaign. Morales has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters but comes with no defensive value, largely limiting him to an AL club or an NL club with an opening at first base. Estrada has pitched through back struggles for the past couple of seasons and recently acknowledged that he’s been playing through discomfort again recently. He has an ERA north of 6.00 dating back to July 30.
  • Josh Harrison, Pirates (link): A run of success in advance of the non-waiver deadline led the Bucs to add two controllable pitchers, but the team has since sunk in the standings. That could lead to some late-August salary dumping, with Harrison among the most likely candidates to be moved. He’s not hitting much this year and is playing on a fairly hefty $10MM annual salary, but it’s certainly possible to imagine a contender adding the scrappy, athletic, and versatile utilityman. It seems likely the Pirates will be paying Harrison $1.5MM in buyouts at season’s end regardless, so perhaps the team will cover that expense while trying to offload Harrison’s remaining 2018 salary.
  • Alex Cobb & Andrew Cashner, Orioles (link): Both Cashner and Cobb have struggled through disappointing seasons after signing multi-year deals this past winter. Cobb, in particular, was a lock to clear waivers with three years remaining on an ill-fated four-year deal that promised him $57MM. Cashner’s two-year deal is worth a more palatable $16MM in total, but he’s barely been able to keep his ERA under 5.00 while delivering middling K/BB numbers and career-worst 42.6 percent ground-ball rate.
  • Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters & Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (link): A trio of expensive Nats vets reportedly cleared waivers at the same time, though there’s virtually no chance that Zimmerman is moved with more than $23MM owed to him through next season and full trade veto power via his 10-and-5 rights. Wieters hasn’t hit enough to make himself a very desirable trade chip, though perhaps a contender would add him as a backup if the Nats absorbed most of the just over $2MM remaining on his contract. Gonzalez is the most plausible of this bunch, though, as very few starters have made it through waivers. While he was still owed about $2.5MM at the time he was reported to have cleared and is having a down season, Gonzalez still misses bats and induces grounders, and he has a lengthy track record of solid mid-rotation work.
  • Andrew McCutchen, Giants (link): Cutch was owed $3.155MM at the time he cleared waivers, and while he’s not the MVP-caliber bat he was in his mid-20s now that he’s approaching his 32nd birthday, he’s still a solidly above-average hitter. In 538 plate appearances with the Giants, he’s slashed .255/.353/.412 with 14 home runs, 26 doubles and two triples. McCutchen’s 44.6 percent hard-hit rate is the best of his career and ranks 22nd among qualified hitters. The Giants would likely be willing to pay down some of his deal to get a decent prospect, and there should be trade interest.
  • Starlin Castro, Marlins (link): Castro is owed the balance of this year’s $10MM salary plus another $11MM in 2019 and at least a $1MM buyout on a $16MM option for the 2020 season. He’s given the Marlins slightly above-average offense with respectable defense at second base, but there aren’t too many contenders looking for upgrades at second base. Even if he’s not moved in August, the Marlins will likely shop him again this winter.
  • Justin Smoak, Blue Jays (link): It’s at least a moderate surprise that Smoak, an affordable switch-hitting slugger in the midst of a productive season, cleared waivers. He was hitting .255/.365/.463 with 18 homers at the time he was reported to have cleared, and while that’s not up to his Herculean 2017 levels, it’s still plenty productive. He’s earning $4.1MM in 2018 and has a cheap $6MM club option for the 2019 season that the Jays will surely pick up if he is not dealt.
  • C.J. Cron, Rays (link): Cron has rewarded the Rays for buying low on him this past offseason, delivering a career-best .250/.317/.480 slash with a personal best 24 home runs through 454 plate appearances as of the time he was reported to have cleared waivers. He’s earning just $2.3MM in 2018 and is controlled for another two seasons, though he doesn’t bring any defensive or baserunning value to the table. Cron also doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, so he’s unlikely to emerge as a serious on-base threat.
  • Wilmer Flores, Mets (link): Flores has experience at all four infield positions and was hitting .275/.326/.444 at the time he was reported to have cleared waivers. But he’s been unusually inept against left-handed opponents in 2018 and is due a raise on this season’s $3.4MM salary in arbitration this offseason. He could deepen a team’s bench, but contenders would likely have had more interest were he performing well against southpaws. The Mets maintain that they’re aiming to contend in 2019, so perhaps they prefer to hang onto Flores.
  • Lucas Duda, Royals (link): Duda has played far too much against lefties in 2018, dragging down his overall numbers, but he’s still a threat against right-handed opposition. He’s limited to first base, but with a $3.5MM salary he’d be an affordable bench bat for any contending club.
  • Logan Forsythe, Twins (link): Forsythe, acquired in the Brian Dozier trade largely as a means of offsetting the duo’s identical $9MM salaries, wasn’t even a lock to stick around with Minnesota after being acquired, but he’s batted .361/.418/.426 through his first 67 PAs in Minnesota, helping to rebuild some stock after a miserable season in L.A. He won’t net the Twins much of anything in a trade if he’s moved, but the Twins might not mind simply shedding the remaining $2.1MM on his salary (as of Aug. 19).
  • Adam Jones, Orioles (link): Jones was reported to have cleared waivers on Aug. 16 and was owed $4.27MM of his $17MM salary at the time. While he’s eligible to be traded to any team, it’s entirely up to Jones whether he moves. The five-time All-Star has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, the past five with one team), meaning he can veto any trade. Jones reportedly already exercised those rights rather than approving a trade to the Phillies. He’s hitting .285/.317/.438 as of this writing and is in the midst of a torrid hot streak, but he has family and charity reasons (among others) for wanting to remain in Baltimore.
  • Curtis Granderson, Blue Jays (link): Now 37 years of age, the Grandy Man isn’t the star that he once was, but he remains a reasonably productive bat against right-handed pitching. He’s playing the season on a one-year, $5MM deal and is still owed about $1.23MM of that salary as of this morning. While Granderson is largely limited to the outfield corners, he could be a useful bench piece for contending clubs down the stretch.
  • Francisco Liriano, Jose Iglesias & Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers (link): It was a 100 percent certainty that Zimmermann, still owed $55.9MM through 2020 (including the remainder of this year’s salary) would clear waivers. Even with improved results this season (4.36 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in 88 2/3 innings), there’s virtually no hope of the Tigers shedding that salary this month. It was less certain that rentals like Liriano or Iglesias would clear, however. Liriano’s ERA ballooned to 4.72 last night after he was roughed up by the Twins, but he’s held left-handed pitching to a terrible .141/.247/.239 slash through 81 plate appearances. With $984K still owed to him through the end of the year, he’d be a reasonably affordable lefty specialist for a contending team’s bullpen. As for Iglesias, it seems quite likely that he’ll be moved to a contender. He’s hitting a respectable, albeit unspectacular .264/.306/.389 while playing terrific defense at shortstop. He’s owed $1.54MM of his $6.275MM salary through season’s end.
  • Joe Mauer & Logan Morrison, Twins (link): Morrison won’t be going anywhere after having season-ending hip surgery last week, and it seems likely that the Twins will buy out his 2019 option after a disappointing all-around season. Mauer, like Jones, has the right to veto any trade and wouldn’t be in much demand anyhow. After a strong .305/.384/.417 slash in 2017, he’s posted a more pedestrian .272/.352/.358 line in 2018 — the final season of his eight-year, $184MM contract.

AL East Notes: Estrada, Judge, Rays, Pirates

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Marco Estrada threw a gem for the Blue Jays on Saturday, allowing one earned run and just one hit while walking two and striking out four over seven innings against the Mariners.  As Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi notes, “the outing is sure to renew [trade] interest in” Estrada’s services, as the right-hander spent most of July on the disabled list recovering from a glute strain and a minor blister issue.  It has been an inconsistent 2018 season for Estrada, though he was turning things around to the tune of a 2.35 ERA over five June starts before his injury problems cropped up.  Had Estrada stayed healthy, he almost surely would’ve joined J.A. Happ, Seunghwan Oh, and other veterans moved by the Jays as the team looks to rebuild for 2019 and beyond.  Toronto will continue to be a team to watch in the August trade market, given the presence of Estrada, Josh Donaldson, and others that could be enticing trade candidates if they can be worked through the waiver process.

Here’s more from the AL East…

  • Yankees slugger Aaron Judge gave reporters (including ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey) an update on his recovery from a chip fracture in his wrist, saying that he is still feeling some pain, though “some of the range of motion is coming back,” and he has been able to make short-range throws of up to five feet.  Judge was originally estimated to miss roughly three weeks, and while that timeline hasn’t officially changed yet, he has yet to begin taking dry swings.  On the plus side, Judge is participating in conditioning and running drills so he’ll theoretically be able to make a quick return once his wrist is ready.
  • The Rays were one of baseball’s busiest teams during trade deadline season, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides a recap on all of the club’s dealings.  With salaries always a concern in Tampa, the Rays now have only a bit over $8MM committed to their 2019 payroll, all owed to Kevin Kiermaier via the outfielder’s multi-year contract.  Topkin calculates that between the minimum salary players, Kiermaier, and arbitration-eligibles Tommy Pham and Matt Duffy (but not C.J. Cron), the Rays may have approximately $25MM in payroll for 2019.  Even if the Rays won’t approach even their modest $70MM payroll from the start of this season, they’ll still have some room to spend on upgrades this winter.  In regards to Cron, Topkin thinks his home run total could push his arbitration number beyond the Rays’ comfort zone, so the first baseman could potentially be a trade candidate or maybe even a non-tender candidate despite his solid season.
  • Also from Topkin’s piece, the player to be named later acquired by the Rays from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade still isn’t known, and the mystery prospect may not change organizations until the minor league season ends.  Indeed, Pirates GM Neal Huntington said today during his radio show (hat tip to MLB.com’s Adam Berry) that “nothing’s imminent” about the players to be named later involved in the Archer trade and also in the trade with the Rangers for Keone Kela.

Blue Jays Rumors: Happ, Clippard, Axford, Estrada, Solarte, Stroman

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While one AL East seller has begun to unload some of its most marketable inventory, the Blue Jays have yet to come to an agreement on any trades. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Jays are ramping up their efforts to trade impending free agents J.A. Happ, Tyler Clippard and John Axford, so as not to be left with too many pieces to move at the eleventh hour as the non-waiver deadline approaches.

Similarly, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Jays have dropped their asking price on Happ recently. While the Toronto front office was at one point asking other clubs for players considered to be among those organizations’ top three or so prospects, they’re being a bit more “realistic” with the deadline approaching, Martino hears. Exactly what the lower asking price entails remains unclear, and it certainly doesn’t seem they’re intent on rushing a trade just yet. For instance, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees still believe the asking price on Happ to be too high.

Beyond the trio of Happ, Clippard and Axford, however, the Jays appear to have other pieces they’d either like to move or, at least, are willing to move. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that Toronto is also shopping both right-hander Marco Estrada and, a bit more surprisingly, infielder Yangervis Solarte. One exec from another club tells Feinsand that the Jays’ prices on their movable assets remains “extremely high,” however.

While much has been made of Happ’s availability, the other players listed in tonight’s reports haven’t been covered at such great length. Both Clippard and Axford are playing on supremely affordable $1.5MM base salaries after earning roster spots as minor league invitees to Spring Training. Both veteran relievers have improved their control (dramatically so, in Axford’s case) while largely maintaining their strikeout rates. Clippard’s bottom-line ERA (3.61) tops that of Axford (4.24), but fielding-independent metrics favor Axford fairly substantially. Either reliever, though, could help to bolster a contending club’s middle-relief contingent.

As for Estrada, he hasn’t pitched since July 3, owing to a left glute strain. He’d been out on a rehab assignment, but Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that he was forced to exit today’s start due to a blister on his middle finger. That significantly clouds the chances of Estrada returning before the July 31 deadline, but considering the fact that he’ll still be owed $4.26MM of this year’s $13MM salary come Aug. 1, he could certainly clear waivers and be marketed in August. Estrada hasn’t been at his best this season anyhow, though, struggling to a 4.72 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 with 1.51 HR/9 through 89 2/3 innings of work.

The inclusion of Solarte on Feinsand’s list is a bit more surprising, given that the Jays can control him through the 2020 season at affordable rates, should they choose. The 31-year-old Solarte hasn’t performed that well in 2018, hitting just .240/.294/.424 in 418 plate appearances. But, Solarte’s walk and strikeout rates remain solid, and he’s making hard contact at the same clip he did in 2017. Despite maintaining a knack for squaring up the ball, Solarte’s .244 BABIP sits well south of his career mark of .272. Given his ability to handle second base or third base (plus some shortstop in a pinch), plus a pair of club options for the 2019 ($5.5MM) and 2020 ($8MM) seasons, Solarte should draw fairly widespread interest.

One player who the Jays don’t appear keen on dealing, however, is righty Marcus Stroman. Heyman tweets that several teams have checked in on Stroman, but there’s a “strong belief” throughout the industry that Toronto will hang onto him. Stroman has another two seasons of club control remaining beyond the 2018 season, and the Blue Jays would be selling low on him in some regards.

While clubs are increasingly willing to look past ugly ERA marks in favor of other more telling metrics, it still seems likely that Stroman’s 5.42 ERA and certainly his increased walk rate would weigh down his trade value. Stroman, though, has maintained similar strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates in 2018; his unsightly ERA is tied somewhat to his worsened control but also to a fluky low 61.6 percent strand rate. Certainly, other clubs see plenty to like when looking at Stroman in spite of sub-par traditional stats.

None of that even touches on perhaps the team’s most enigmatic trade piece — third baseman Josh Donaldson. At this point, it’s not clear that Donaldson will return before the non-waiver deadline. The remainder of his $23MM salary will assuredly clear waivers next month, meaning he’ll have a bit of time to prove he can return to form and showcase himself for contending clubs before the Aug. 31 deadline for postseason eligibility. With Donaldson and Estrada both likely to clear waivers, the Jays could well remain active on the trade front even if they move their top rental commodities in the next week.

Blue Jays Place Marco Estrada On 10-Day DL

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The Blue Jays announced today that righty Marco Estrada has been placed on the 10-day disabled list. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by outfielder Dwight Smith Jr.

Estrada is dealing with a glute strain that drove him from his most recent outing, on July 3rd. The club had held off on a DL placement, but has now made the move. Estrada’s placement is backdated as far as permissible, to July 10th, and the impact of the absence will be limited owing to the All-Star break.

There’s no real indication at this point that Estrada will be out for a lengthy stretch. But the news could impact his potential trade candidacy. If Estrada is able to return after the minimum required absence, though, it’s still possible he could make two or even three starts before the trade deadline.

Of course, as trade candidates go, the veteran righty likely isn’t a top priority for contenders. He’s carrying only a 4.72 ERA on the year, though as we recently examined, there are some reasons to believe that there will be some interest. Of course, his $13MM salary also makes him an obvious candidate to be dealt in the month of August, as he’d almost certainly clear waivers.

AL East Notes: MASN, Happ, Estrada, Machado

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While the ongoing television rights dispute between the Orioles and Nationals has been out of the news for some time, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any action behind the scenes. Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun recently provided a notable update on the situation. While the Baltimore organization has “grown weary of battling Major League Baseball over the [MASN] network” and has tried to work out a settlement, there’s still no resolution. At present, there’s no indication that the stalemate will be broken voluntarily; barring a change in that dynamic, the next big event on the calendar is a scheduled arbitration hearing in November.

Here’s the latest from the AL East:

  • The Yankees may be the “main player” for Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Not only is Happ arguably the best rental starter on the market, but it seems the Yanks hold him in high regard. They won’t be alone in pursuing the Toronto southpaw, however. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Jays are directing some scouting resources toward the Brewers farm system, perhaps in anticipation of interest from the Milwaukee organization.
  • Fellow Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada left last night’s game with a sore hip, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm was among those to tweet. For now, the severity isn’t known, though perhaps it’s promising that the Toronto organization made a roster transaction today but did not feel compelled to rush Estrada onto the disabled list. As we recently examined, Estrada’s strong performance of late has made him seem increasingly like a potential trade candidate this summer, but he’ll only be a useful asset for the Jays if he’s in good health.
  • Orioles third baseman Manny Machado is said to be drawing wide and increasingly active interest from a variety of rival organizations. That’s no surprise, as he’s a mid-prime rental asset of rare ability. The Diamondbacks have held “consistent” talks with the Baltimore organization, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), which largely confirms the steady stream of reports we’ve seen on Arizona’s engagement. Morosi adds that the O’s are interested in young D-Backs prospect Jon Duplantier, whose current injury has “complicated” efforts to put together a package that suits both teams. It’s hard to gauge to what extent Duplantier’s status will impact the broader Machado situation, in no small part because it is not apparent whether he’s a player the Snakes would be willing to part with for a rental. Meanwhile, the Braves do have some interest in Machado, Morosi also tweets, but are mostly exploring the market for “controllable relievers” at the moment. Again, that dovetails with what we’ve heard out of Atlanta in recent weeks.

Olney’s Latest: Mets, Blue Jays, Tribe, BoSox, Braves, Phillies

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The Mets will listen to offers for co-aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but it appears the two will stay put. The club’s seeking overwhelming returns for both right-handers and is “highly unlikely” to move either one, according to Buster Olney of ESPN. With general manager Sandy Alderson on leave as he battles cancer, assistants Omar Minaya, John Ricco and J.P. Ricciardi will help determine the futures of deGrom, Syndergaard and other Mets. However, it’s not a lock that anyone from that group will become Alderson’s full-time successor, as Mets ownership is likely to look outside the organization for the team’s next GM, Olney hears. Minaya, who preceded Alderson as New York’s GM, has the respect of Mets owner Fred Wilpon and will “have a major say” in who takes over for Alderson, per Olney.

More from Olney as the deadline draws closer:

  • With deGrom and Syndergaard unlikely to go anywhere, Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ may end up as the best starter moved this month, Olney observes. The Jays have attached “a high asking price” to Happ, Olney writes, which isn’t surprising given his strong track record – including a 3.62 ERA and a career-high 9.84 K/9 in 97 innings this year. Meanwhile, Toronto’s discussing fellow starter Marco Estrada with other teams, Olney reports. Estrada, like Happ, is set to hit free agency at year’s end. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams examined his trade value earlier this week.
  • The Indians hope to acquire at least one quality reliever who’s under control past this season, per Olney. Although Cleveland’s a shoo-in to win the AL Central, the team’s bullpen has been a disaster, as its relievers rank 28th in both ERA and fWAR. Further, the Indians could lose their top two relievers, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, to free agency after the season, so adding someone who’s signed beyond this year would help cover for their departures.
  • The Red Sox and Braves are among other contenders that could be in the market for bullpen help, according to Olney. In Boston’s case, Olney notes that it may take on a high-priced reliever from another team in a salary dump, thanks to its thin farm system. The Braves, meanwhile, don’t have the spending ability of clubs like the Red Sox and division-rival Phillies, but they are set to act as buyers as they seek their first playoff berth since 2013. Philadelphia, which hasn’t clinched a playoff berth since 2011, will also buy, Olney relays. Entering Sunday, the Braves (47-34) lead the Phillies (44-37) by three games for the NL East lead, but the latter is in possession of a wild-card spot at the moment.

Trade Candidate: Marco Estrada

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Though we noted Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada as a possible trade candidate in our first ranking of the 50 top trade deadline assets, he only rated mention on the outside of the list. To that point of the season, after all, Estrada had largely been ineffective. With a $13MM salary, there wasn’t a ton of appeal in a player who’ll turn 35 in early July.

Marco Estrada

That situation, however, is beginning to change. Estrada has been one of the better starters in baseball over the past month, accumulating an even 1.0 fWAR over the past thirty days — something only ten other hurlers in the game have accomplished. In his last four outings, in particular, he has worked to a 1.75 ERA with 26 strikeouts against five walks.

How has it happened? It’s a bit difficult to say for sure, as there haven’t been any truly dramatic swings in his approach or stuff. But his fastball sure has been more effective: it was valued at -1.53 runs per one hundred pitches through May, but has jumped to a +4.27 valuation on a rate basis in June. And Estrada has been pumping first-pitch strikes at a greater rate in the past month as well (going from 63.4% to 69.5%). Meanwhile, the shape of his changeup has altered somewhat, exhibiting less horizontal and slightly more vertical movement over his past four starts.

These changes are subtle enough that they may not really reflect much at all of substance. The primary drivers, perhaps, still need to be sussed out and assessed for sustainability. But it does not seem that Estrada has simply been the beneficiary of a correction in batted-ball fortune. Statcast suggests he deserved the poor outcomes that befell him through the end of May, and has simply been much better at limiting good contact since.

In the aggregate, it’s certainly far too soon to declare Estrada a newfound ace. In all likelihood, his true talent at this point pegs him as a solid hurler who could help a contender fill out a competitive rotation.

That general impression is buttressed by a review of Estrada’s past several seasons. Upon landing in Toronto, he had great results in 2015 and 2016 before a downturn last year. But his underlying statistics have been fairly consistent all along. In total, over 627 1/3 innings with the Jays, Estrada owns a 3.96 ERA with a 4.40 FIP, 4.91 xFIP, and 4.57 SIERA. To the extent it’s reasonable to anticipate that he will outperform the ERA estimators somewhat, it’s likely not wise to hope he’ll do so by any great margin.

Barring a sustained run over the next month, Estrada likely won’t generate a huge amount of excitement at the trade deadline. But he increasingly looks like a solid piece for the right team. He has been good for about thirty starts and 180 frames annually of late, and despite some ups and downs is perhaps reasonably viewed as a sturdy back-of-the-rotation arm overall.

As the above-linked list of top deadline candidates shows, the crop of rotation targets is rather thin at present. The Jays surely won’t be able to draw any significant offers of young talent for Estrada. But perhaps they’ll manage to offload a decent chunk of his remaining salary obligations next month. That’s not to say it’s any kind of sure thing that he’ll end up elsewhere. After all, we’ve wondered previously whether the veteran hurler would leave the Jays, only for him to agree to successive contracts just before reaching the open market (see here and here).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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