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Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman

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The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.

Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.

The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.

Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.

A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.

While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.

The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.

Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.

Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.

Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.

The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.

What Does Matt Chapman’s Market Look Like After The Cody Bellinger Deal?

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For weeks now, the baseball world’s spotlight has been pointed at the “Boras Four.” Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are all represented by the Boras Corporation and each one lingered in free agency until late February as a staring contest seemed to be taking place between the agency and interested clubs.

The first blink finally came over the weekend, with Bellinger agreeing to return to the Cubs on a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Bellinger is guaranteed $80MM over three years but can walk away after each of the first two seasons, collecting salaries of $30MM in each of those two campaigns.

Now the attention will turn to the other three, and it’s possible there are domino effects of the Bellinger deal, particularly for Chapman. The Cubs were a speculative fit for starting pitchers this winter, but they signed Shota Imanaga and were never firmly connected to either Snell or Montgomery.

But for Chapman, the Cubs were one of four clubs to have been reportedly involved in his market. Adding Bellinger to the club doesn’t eliminate the roster fit with Chapman, as their third base mix is still fairly unsettled. It seems like some combination of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal will be vying for playing time at the hot corner. Morel has just 180 2/3 big league innings at the position with poor grades from defensive metrics. It’s a fairly small sample, but the Cubs haven’t been confident enough in his abilities there to let him expand it. His potent bat also comes with concerns, including a 31.6% strikeout rate thus far in his career. Wisdom’s profile is somewhat comparable while Madrigal is the inverse, providing solid glovework and avoiding strikeouts but with almost no power to speak of.

There would be an argument to the Cubs adding Chapman to solidify that position. The designated hitter spot is open, which would still give Morel a path to regular at-bats while serving as a utility player, moving to various positions to give others an occasional day off. Wisdom and Madrigal could be useful role players off the bench.

However, the Cubs may be done making impact signings. After the Bellinger deal, Roster Resource pegs their competitive balance tax number just above $234MM. That puts just them barely under this year’s $237MM base threshold. They have paid the tax in the past, but not since 2019. They were technically over the line in 2020 but the taxes were waived in the pandemic-shortened season.

If the Cubs wanted to, they could get back over the line again, but they might to prefer to stay where they are for now. They could use the first half of the season to assess Morel’s abilities at the position and then make a deadline trade if they decide an upgrade over him, Madrigal and/or Wisdom is warranted.

What also might be an issue is that Chapman may be less inclined to take a short-term deal like the one Bellinger signed. While Bellinger in 28 years old, Chapman is a couple of months away from his 31st birthday. Returning to the open market a year from now would have some appeal, since he’s currently saddled with a qualifying offer. Players can only receive one QO in their careers, and that wouldn’t be a concern next winter. He could also perhaps stay healthy and put together a better offensive platform, after he was seemingly held back by a finger injury in 2023. But his primary selling point is his defense, and the appeal of that glovework to clubs will likely only go down as he pushes further into his 30s. If clubs are wary of making a long-term commitment to Chapman at the moment, that’d only be truer next offseason, barring a massive resurgence at the plate.

It’s possible Chapman is looking to bank as much money as possible right now, which might not make the Cubs the perfect fit in the long term. Two of their best prospects are infielders in Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Shaw was just drafted last summer but was in Double-A by the end of the year and may not be too far from the majors. Triantos also reached Double-A last year and then seemed to have a breakout in the Arizona Fall League. Both of them have played second base, third base and shortstop in the minors, but the Cubs are fairly set up the middle. Dansby Swanson is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and is signed through 2029. Nico Hoerner is excellent at the keystone, and his contract runs through 2026.

With Shaw and Triantos on the way, Morel a plausible solution at third base in the short term and the club’s CBT number right up against the line, the Cubs may not want to make a big investment in Chapman. Perhaps that would change if Chapman is open to a short-term deal but, as mentioned, there are reasons why he may not be as amenable to that structure as Bellinger was.

Besides the Cubs, the three other clubs that have been connected to Chapman in rumors are the Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners. The Jays employed Chapman last year and have reportedly been interested in bringing him back, though the rumors connected to the two sides have largely dried up since November. In the interim, the Jays have added infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the roster.

The signings of those two players shouldn’t close the door to a Chapman reunion, as Turner could fill the role served by Brandon Belt last year, serving primarily as a DH while donning a glove from time to time. Kiner-Falefa could replace Whit Merrifield, who split his time between second base and the outfield for the Jays last year.

That means Chapman could still retake his position from last year while leaving the Jays in essentially the same spot as 2023, but they also have an army of young infielders. Between Turner, Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Ernie Clement, they may feel they have enough bodies to cover both second and third base. They also brought in veteran Eduardo Escobar on a minor league deal.

Beyond the roster fit, there’s also the financial question. The club opened last season with a franchise-high payroll of $210MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already way beyond that for this year, with Roster Resource putting them at $236MM. They also have a CBT figure of $249MM, already $12MM over the base threshold. Signing Chapman to a significant deal would mean pushing beyond the second line of $257MM. General manager Ross Atkins recently suggested that adding anything to the books would also require subtraction, implying they are at their limit.

The Giants don’t strictly need a third baseman, as they have J.D. Davis at the hot corner. However, upgrading the defense has been a concern for that club after some recent struggles. Their team-wide -15 Defensive Runs Saved last year had them 23rd in the league. Chapman has a tally of 92 DRS in his career, including 12 in 2023. Davis, meanwhile, was at -11 last year. His Outs Above Average tally was much nicer at +5, but even OAA considers him subpar in his career.

Chapman would give the club a nice defensive boost to the left side of the infield, which may be extra important if they plan to give rookie Marco Luciano an audition at shortstop. It’s also been speculated that Chapman’s connections to manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might play a role, as both of them were with the Athletics when Chapman was drafted by that club.

But there are also reasons why Chapman may not end up in San Francisco. Zaidi recently threw some cold water on the possibility of a notable addition. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s off the table, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts made some similar comments not long before they agreed with Bellinger. But the Giants are also relatively close to the CBT line, with Roster Resource putting them at $213MM. They have paid the tax in the past but not since 2017.

Perhaps the market for the top free agents has been depressed enough that they can sign one of the remaining Boras guys while staying under the line. That’s especially true of Chapman, if signing him led to a trade of Davis and some or all of his $6.9MM salary. But even if there’s powder dry for another move, it’s arguable that it would make more sense for them to go after Snell or Montgomery, both of whom they have had reported interest in. Their rotation has little certainly beyond Logan Webb, as both Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will be starting the year on the injured list. Webb will be backed up by Jordan Hicks, who is unproven as a starter, as well as inexperienced youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn.

As for the Mariners, they are currently slated to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Both of them are coming off poor seasons, with Rojas finishing with a wRC+ of 78 and Urias at 83. Even though Chapman struggled a bit last year, his wRC+ still finished at 110. He’s also a better defender than either of them and would give the club a clear upgrade.

Despite the roster fit, general manager Justin Hollander recently said the club’s upcoming additions would likely be more marginal in nature. The M’s had an Opening Day payroll of $137MM last year, per Cot’s, and Roster Resource puts them at $135MM going into this year. They’ve been as high as $158MM in the past but it’s been reported that their TV revenue uncertainty may prevent them from pushing far beyond last year’s figure.

There are other clubs that could make for speculative fits but they haven’t yet been meaningfully connected to Chapman in his nearly four months on the open market. The Angels could sign him and bump Anthony Rendon into a DH role, but their rotation also needs upgrading and owner Arte Moreno recently said the club will have a lower payroll this year. The Mets have an uncertain third base mix but seem willing to let Brett Baty and Mark Vientos battle for time there, and they are facing a 110% tax bill on any further spending at this point. The Yankees could bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role but are also facing a 110% tax bill on further spending. The Phillies could sign Chapman and move Alec Bohm to the bench but there hasn’t been any indication they are thinking of doing so. They are also looking at sizeable taxes and are only $16MM away from the third CBT tier, the crossing of which would cause their top 2025 draft pick to be pushed back 10 spots. The Brewers could make sense but they also may want to let Joey Ortiz have a shot at third base after acquiring him in the Corbin Burnes trade and don’t usually make huge free agent splashes anyway. Young outfielder Sal Frelick will also be getting looks in the infield this spring.

A couple of months ago, MLBTR ran a poll looking at Chapman’s market. The Cubs were the third most popular choice, getting 19.65% of the votes. Presumably, less readers will see the fit after the Bellinger signing, but let’s find out. Where do you think he’ll end up?

That post also featured a poll about Chapman’s earning power. At that point, almost 60% of respondents still felt Chapman could get over $100MM. That percentage will also likely be lower as he remains unsigned with the month of March just over the horizon, but let’s see. Have your say in the polls below!

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

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Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

 

 

Pohlad: Twins “Not In The Market” For Top Remaining Free Agents

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As the baseball world collectively wonders where top-tier free agents like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman will sign, it seems scarcely a day goes by without at least one team effectively proclaiming itself to be out of that market. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners have all seen a top baseball ops executive or ownership representative cast doubt on their ability and/or willingness to make further free agent additions of note. Add the Twins to that growing list, as owner Joe Pohlad said in an appearance with WCCO radio’s Jason DeRusha today that his club isn’t likely to make a significant late splash like they did when signing Carlos Correa a couple offseasons ago (audio link).

“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”

Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.

The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.

“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.

The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022.  It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.

Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.

Hollander: Mariners Additions Likely To Be “More On The Margins”

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander met with reporters this afternoon to discuss the possibility of some late-offseason acquisitions. While Hollander — who is second in the Seattle front office hierarchy behind baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto — left the door ajar for anything, he indicated the likelier course of action was to supplement towards the back of the roster.

“You never know. I think this group of players that we have — our 40-man roster as is — we may add on the margins. We may add in a more significant way, but I would expect it’s probably more on the margins than a real significant way based on where we’re at,” Hollander said (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The comments come a couple days after Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the M’s have had internal discussions about Matt Chapman, one of the top four unsigned free agents. Hollander didn’t comment on Chapman — the CBA limits what team personnel are allowed to say regarding specific players — but Kramer writes that the M’s conversations about the third baseman occurred earlier in the month.

There was never any indication that Seattle is deeply involved in Chapman’s market. Kramer reports that the M’s interest has been contingent on the four-time Gold Glover lowering his asking price significantly. According to Kramer, a nine-figure deal for Chapman would be a “non-starter” for Seattle. The MLB.com report indicates the Mariners would be amenable to a shorter-term/incentive-laden contract, although that unsurprisingly hasn’t been of interest to Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corporation.

Third base looks like a relative weak point for Seattle. The Mariners dealt Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in Luis Urías in a small trade with the Red Sox and indirectly addressed the hot corner with last month’s Jorge Polanco deal. Installing Polanco at second base pushes lefty-hitting Josh Rojas over to third, likely in a platoon with the right-handed Urías.

Urías enters camp at a little less than full strength. The Mariners reveled today that he is battling some soreness in his throwing shoulder coming out of winter ball (via Divish). It’s not a serious issue but will keep him from throwing across the diamond in infield drills early in Spring Training.

Hollander downplayed any concern about the third base platoon. Asked if the M’s felt they’re vulnerable at the position, he replied: “I don’t really feel that way, no. … We feel really good about what the combination of Josh and Luis can do for us this year.”

That’s the expected tone for a GM to strike publicly. That said, Chapman is the only unsigned third baseman who’d be a clear upgrade on the Rojas/Urías pairing. If Seattle is simply keeping tabs on his market in case the opportunity presents itself to jump in at a lower price, they’re presumably otherwise content with their in-house options.

Seattle has also been loosely tied to the top two remaining free agents, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. The link to Snell has primarily been about geography rather than team need. The defending NL Cy Young winner is a Seattle native and there has been some speculation he could prefer to stay on the West Coast after three seasons in San Diego.

Despite that chatter, Kramer writes that the Mariners haven’t shown much interest in Snell at any point during the winter. The M’s traded rehabbing starter Robbie Ray and depth arm Marco Gonzales but have held onto their top five starters: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Former top 10 pick Emerson Hancock remains on hand as a high-upside depth piece.

Bellinger was arguably a better roster fit, but Kramer reports that Seattle hasn’t considered the former MVP in either of the past two offseasons. The M’s reacquired Mitch Haniger and brought in Luke Raley from Tampa Bay as part of a reshaped corner outfield. Seattle shipped out one-time top prospect Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger and Raley as the presumptive starters alongside Julio Rodríguez on the outfield grass.

Seattle has generally preferred the trade route over free agency under Dipoto, particularly with regards to position players. This offseason’s two-year, $24MM deal for Mitch Garver was the first multi-year free agent contract for a hitter that Seattle has given out in Dipoto’s tenure. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player spending in the $135MM range. That’s a middle-of-the-pack figure that’s right in line with last year’s approximate $137MM Opening Day sum.

Mariners Have Discussed Signing Matt Chapman

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With Matt Chapman still available as we enter late February, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that “the Mariners have discussed the possibility of” signing the free agent third baseman.  It isn’t clear if these discussions could be due-diligence explorations within the front office, or whether or not president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto might have reached out to Chapman’s camp about a potential contract.

Eugenio Suarez was seemingly locked in at Seattle’s third baseman when the offseason began, yet the M’s created a vacancy at the hot corner when Suarez was traded to the Diamondbacks in November.  Since Luis Urias was acquired in another trade with the Red Sox about a week before the Suarez deal, the initial expectation was that Urias could potentially take over for Suarez, yet that situation was further altered after another trade — last month’s swap with the Twins that brought Jorge Polanco to the Pacific Northwest.  With Polanco now established as the new every second baseman, third base looked to be covered by Urias and Josh Rojas in a platoon, with utilityman Dylan Moore also providing more depth.

Signing Chapman would deliver yet another shakeup to the infield picture, and push Rojas, Urias, and Moore firmly into backup roles unless any got some at-bats spelling Ty France at first base.  Since public defensive metrics haven’t traditionally been impressed by the glovework of France, Polanco, or shortstop J.P. Crawford, adding a multi-time Gold and Platinum Glove winner like Chapman would go a long way towards helping the Mariners’ run prevention.

There would also be an offensive upgrade, though not as much as one might imagine.  Since the start of the 2021 season, Chapman has posted a 110 wRC+ over 1824 plate appearances, while Urias has a 107 wRC+ in 1219 PA and Rojas a 99 wRC+ in 1410 PA.  Urias and Rojas both hit so poorly in 2023 that it obscures their very solid numbers in the previous two years, albeit in less playing time than Chapman received as a true everyday player with the A’s and Blue Jays.

That said, Chapman’s 2023 campaign was also a mixed bag at best at the plate.  He got off to a scorching start that won him the AL Player of the Month Award for April, but Chapman then hit only .205/.298/.361 over 467 PA from May 1 to the end of the regular season.  A finger injury particularly hampered Chapman over the last couple of months and he ended up with a 110 wRC+ (from 17 homers and a .240/.330/.424 slash line in 581 PA), yet this shaky platform year is quite likely the reason why Chapman has lingered so long on the open market.

Chapman is also a free swinger at the plate, which would seemingly run counter to the Mariners’ offseason goal of improving the lineup’s contact hitting.  Seattle’s 25.9% strikeout rate was the second highest of any team in baseball in 2023, yet Chapman has averaged a 29.9% strikeout rate since the start of the 2020 season.  Chapman has generally been able to offset his strikeouts by doing a lot of damage when he did make contact, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates were among the best in the league last year, even if his bottom-line numbers didn’t reflect the quality of his contact.

Beyond the on-field questions, there is also the more practical matter of whether the Mariners can even meet Chapman’s contract demands.  It is possible Chapman and agent Scott Boras might have lowered or been willing to lower the asking price this deep into the offseason, yet if that is the case, other rumored suitors as the Giants or Cubs might still be in a better position than the M’s to take advantage, to say nothing or any other mystery teams.

The Mariners’ full purchase of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network has put some added expenses onto the organization’s books, and seemingly limited what the front office has had available to spend this offseason.  Roster Resource projects Seattle for a $135MM payroll in 2024, and though Dipoto said that the Mariners were able to spend beyond their $140MM payroll from last season, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of wiggle room available.

Chapman would still require a hefty average annual value even on a shorter-term deal with opt-outs involved, and as mentioned earlier, another club might well be able to outbid Seattle within that kind of unique structure.  There is also the fact that Dipoto has traditionally been much more open to trades than pricey free agent signings as a roster-building strategy, as Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract from the 2021-22 offseason is far and away the biggest deal given to a free agent in Dipoto’s tenure.

As Divish notes, the Mariners have had interest in Chapman in the past, back when the A’s were shopping the third baseman as part of their wide-ranging fire sale after the 2021 season.  The Athletics reportedly wanted Noelvi Marte as part of any trade package involving Chapman, and the M’s instead held onto Marte only to eventually move him in the Luis Castillo deal at the 2022 deadline.

Which Teams Would Benefit Most From Matt Chapman?

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Spring Training is underway for a few teams, yet a handful of free agency’s top players remain unsigned. Matt Chapman has been the clear #1 option for clubs looking to address third base all winter.

Chapman started the 2023 campaign on a blistering offensive pace that once looked as if it could vault him towards the $200MM mark. He tailed off as the calendar flipped to May, however, most often finding himself in the bottom third of the Toronto batting order by year’s end. A finger injury may have sapped some of his power, but the bigger problem is that Chapman’s swing-and-miss issues returned in full force. While he carried a league average 22.8% strikeout rate through the end of April, he fanned at a 29.8% clip from May 1 on. The end result was a characteristic Chapman season: a .240/.330/.424 batting line with a strong 10.7% walk rate but a strikeout percentage north of 28%.

Five years removed from a career-best campaign in which he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 homers, it’s difficult to sell Chapman as a significant upside play at the dish. He’s a slightly better than average hitter whose value is heavily tied into his glove. A four-time Gold Glove winner, he rated as 12 runs better than an third baseman by DRS last season. Statcast graded him three runs above par. By both measures, he has been an a solid to elite defender in every year of his career.

A long-term bet on a player who soon turns 31 and derives much of his value from his defense has probably scared off a few teams, particularly since Chapman would require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. Yet there’s little doubt he’d be an upgrade in the next couple years over the third base situations that at least half of teams are set to deploy. Which ones have the spottiest in-house options to handle the hot corner, and could therefore benefit most from Chapman’s services?

Clear Need

  • Angels

Anthony Rendon hasn’t made 60 starts at third base in a season since 2019. Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo can see some time at the hot corner but are better served as bat-first options rotating throughout the infield. This would be a clear weakness if the Angels were one piece away from contention.

Unfortunately for the Halos, they have a handful of potentially bigger concerns. They’re still looking for rotation help. The overall depth on both the position player and pitching sides is lacking. They’re on the hook for $38MM to Rendon for another three seasons. Ownership and the front office probably don’t want to compound the issue with another significant free agent splash at third base.

  • Blue Jays

Chapman’s old team hasn’t done much to replace him. They added Justin Turner on a one-year free agent deal. He can handle a few starts at third base but is more of a part-time option heading into his age-39 season. Turner only started seven games at the hot corner with the Red Sox a year ago. While that’s primarily on account of Rafael Devers’ presence, it also points to the risk the team would face in banking on him for 100+ starts on the infield dirt.

Assuming Turner plays mostly designated hitter, the Jays have a collection of infielders (Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez) to handle second and third base. Schneider has 35 games of MLB experience. Espinal and Biggio once looked like viable regulars but have tailed off in recent years. Clement is a utility player.

  • Cubs

The Cubs might have the clearest need for third base help of any expected contender. Nick Madrigal, the top in-house option, hit .263/.311/.352 a year ago. There was also some concern about whether his arm plays well on the left side of the infield, although Madrigal posted excellent defensive grades in his first 560 1/3 innings at third base. There’s still a legitimate question as to whether the former #4 overall pick makes enough an offensive impact to start on a win-now team.

Chicago’s other short-term possibilities also have notable drawbacks. Patrick Wisdom has power but strikes out nearly as often as any regular in MLB. He’s a below-average defender who’s probably better served as a bench bat. Christopher Morel has never found a defensive home and only started four games at third base last year. Miles Mastrobuoni is coming off a .241/.308/.301 showing. It’s too early to bank on last year’s first-round draftee, Matt Shaw, making an MLB impact in 2024.

Viable Starter, Could Upgrade

  • Giants: San Francisco doesn’t truly need a third baseman. J.D. Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers a year ago. That was Davis’ worst full offensive season but still not far off what Chapman has provided in recent years. At the plate, they’re fairly comparable. Chapman has a marked edge over Davis with the glove, although Statcast felt the Giants’ incumbent third baseman took a step forward in that regard a season ago. While it’s fair to question whether Chapman is a marked enough improvement for San Francisco to make a run, they’ve been linked throughout the offseason. New skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman for years across the Bay Area. The Giants could pursue him with an eye towards flipping Davis for help in another area of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle is going into 2024 with a projected platoon at third base. They shipped off Eugenio Suárez and acquired Luis Urías. The righty-swinging Urías can pair with left-handed hitting Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Chapman would be a fairly straightforward upgrade, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has expressed a desire to skew away from hitters with significant swing-and-miss rates (although their actual offseason on that front has been more mixed). More meaningfully, the M’s might just be up against ownership’s spending limit.
  • Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets were happy with their internal options at third base. Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball a few days later, but New York still has 24-year-old Brett Baty on hand. Baty had a dismal ’23 campaign, hitting .212/.275/.323 in 389 plate appearances. If the Mets were all-in on the upcoming season, Chapman would make a lot of sense. The organizational goal is instead to hang on the fringe of contention while giving opportunities to young players to see what they have for 2025. If Chapman’s asking price craters and he’s open to a short-term deal with an opt-out, perhaps the Mets could jump in. Otherwise, it seems the job will go to Baty.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia seems content with Alec Bohm. He’s a subpar defender who has done the vast majority of his offensive damage against left-handed pitching in his career. There’s an argument the Phillies should make a run at Chapman and push Bohm to the bench, but the team doesn’t seem to consider third base a pressing issue. Bohm is a former #3 overall pick who had a decent .274/.327/.437 slash a year ago, so the Phils could hope there’s a little untapped potential at the dish.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are planning to turn third base back to DJ LeMahieu. The 35-year-old was a league average hitter a season ago, running a .243/.327/.390 line with 15 homers. The longtime second baseman receives slightly above-average marks for his glovework at third base. LeMahieu hasn’t maintained the star-level production he showed from 2019-20, yet he’s still a solid everyday player. He had a strong finish to 2023, hitting .273/.377/.432 with a robust 14% walk rate after the All-Star Break. Chapman would likely be an upgrade, but it’s not a massive boost on what LeMahieu has provided. The Yankees have tried to move away from right-handed hitters with strikeout issues after overloading their lineup with that type of player in previous years.

Competitive Timeline Question

  • Nationals
  • Tigers
  • White Sox

The Nationals took a flier on former top prospect Nick Senzel to start at third base. Senzel hasn’t contributed much at the MLB level, so this is still a clear area of weakness. Washington hasn’t fully pivoted from rebuilding to making a competitive push, though, meaning it’s probably a year or two early to pursue a player like Chapman. Chicago might be going in the opposite direction, as they may soon find themselves at the beginning of a rebuild. Yoán Moncada is under guaranteed contract for one more year with a club option for 2025. The Sox will likely give him a rebound opportunity and hope to offload some of the money he’s owed at the trade deadline.

Detroit admittedly didn’t fit particularly well within any of these five categories. They’re at the beginning of what they hope to be their contention window. The Tigers don’t have a clear starting third baseman right now but are hopeful that top prospect Jace Jung could push for the job by next season. Manager A.J. Hinch has suggested they’re comfortable rotating the likes of Andy Ibáñez, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry through the position as a stopgap platoon.

Payroll Issues

  • Athletics
  • Brewers
  • Marlins
  • Royals

None of these low-payroll franchises are going to spend the kind of money it’d take to land Chapman. Each of Milwaukee (Joey Ortiz), Miami (Jake Burger) and Kansas City (Maikel García) could turn the position to a controllable player they hope will be part of the long-term core.

Already Set At Third Base

  • Astros
  • Braves
  • Cardinals
  • Diamondbacks
  • Dodgers
  • Guardians
  • Orioles
  • Padres
  • Pirates
  • Rangers
  • Rays
  • Red Sox
  • Reds
  • Rockies
  • Twins

These 15 teams all have either a clearly above-average starting third baseman (e.g. José Ramírez, Austin Riley), have addressed the position already this winter (Eugenio Suárez), or possess enough infield talent that can capably cover the position. In either case, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs considering Chapman a notable upgrade on their in-house options to bring him in. That’s true regardless of whether he pivots to a short-term deal.

Giants’ Chairman On Zaidi, Offseason Plans

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Giants chairman Greg Johnson recently spoke to reporters, including Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle, regarding the contract status of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi as well as the club’s plans heading into the home stretch of the offseason.

On Zaidi, Johnson revealed that the extension the club announced back in October that would keep Zaidi in San Francisco through the 2026 season has not yet been finalized. That’s something of a surprise, given Johnson said at the time of the announcement that the deal had been “agreed [upon] in principle” and would be formally announced in the near future. That, of course, didn’t come to pass, though Johnson nonetheless noted that the extension is a “done deal.”

“It’s effectively done,” Johnson said (as relayed by Kroichick). “He probably has signed it; I’m probably the one who hasn’t because I haven’t been around enough. But we’re done.”

The extension for Zaidi, whose current deal runs through the end of the 2024 campaign, came as something of a surprise given the club’s inconsistency during his tenure in San Francisco. The Giants posted losing seasons in his first two campaigns with the club before mustering a phenomenal 107-win 2021 season that propelled the club to its first NL West title since 2012. Since that strong showing, however, the club has been marred by middling performances. The club finished the 2022 season with a .500 record before slipping back underwater in 2023 with a 79-83 season that resulted in the club swapping out Gabe Kapler in favor of Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair.

Beyond the comments on Zaidi’s contract status, Johnson also spoke about the club’s ability to make further additions to the roster via free agency after spending on outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Jordan Hicks earlier this winter while also picking up southpaw Robbie Ray in a trade with the Mariners last month. Johnson was quick to emphasize that the club still has the capacity to continue improving the club via free agency, noting that “there are a lot of good players out there” who the club remains “very interested in.”

While Johnson didn’t specify any particular targets, previous reporting has indicated that the Giants view third baseman Matt Chapman as their top target on the positional market. Chapman, 31 in April, would substantially improve the club’s defense as a four-time Gold Glove award winner at third base who leads all big leaguers with +92 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner since he first debuted back in 2017. Chapman would also provide the club a substantial boost in terms of power. While he veteran hit just 17 home runs last season, his .203 isolated slugging since the start of the 2020 season could nonetheless provide a dramatic boost to a Giants lineup that posted an anemic .149 ISO last year, good for just 23rd in the majors. Among all Giants with at least 100 plate appearances last season, only Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski posted an ISO of .200 or more.

By contrast, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that comments from Zaidi in the wake of the Hicks signing last month indicated the club may not pursue further starting rotation additions. Johnson somewhat backed that notion up, with Shea quoting Johnson as having said that he thinks the club is “going to have to rely on some younger pitching” headed into the season with veterans Alex Cobb and Ray both expected to start the season on the shelf. Those signals from both the front office and ownership seemingly cast doubt on the likelihood of San Francisco making a splash at the top of the rotation market, where southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the consensus best arms remaining.
If the Giants truly are unlikely to make a run at further rotation upgrades, it would be something of a surprise. After all, after trading away both Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling while watching Alex Wood and Sean Manaea depart via free agency, the Giants have seen their starting pitching depth take a major hit this winter. While both Cobb and Ray could provide reinforcements later in the season, the club currently figures to go with rookies Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison, youngster Tristan Beck, and Hicks to round out the club’s rotation alongside Logan Webb.

Only Hicks debuted in the majors prior to the 2023 campaign among that quartet, and the righty has made just eight starts in the majors to this point in his career. Adding a reliable arm to the mix alongside Webb would give the club a significantly deeper and more stable rotation mix to open the season with while lessening the club’s need to rely on speedy returns from Cobb and Ray as they rehab from their respective surgeries. If the club doesn’t have the financial wherewithal to stomach a nine-figure commitment to Snell or Montgomery, a handful of decent mid-to-back of the rotation arms such as Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen also remain available.

Latest On Giants’ Offseason Targets

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The Giants’ offseason hasn’t necessarily been inactive, but it also hardly hasn’t played out as many fans would’ve expected when president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi kicked off the winter by stating a need to think differently, specifically with regard to the team’s roster construction.

The Giants made one big splash with their December signing of star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal, but the rest of their additions have been smaller scale in nature. Jordan Hicks, the hardest-throwing reliever on the market, was signed to a four-year deal. The Giants, despite having just one dependable source of innings (ace Logan Webb), plan to stretch the oft-injured Hicks out as a starter. Last year’s 65 2/3 innings were his most since a career-high 77 2/3 frames as a rookie in 2018. San Francisco also added backup catcher Tom Murphy on a two-year deal and acquired former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) in a trade with the Mariners that dumped the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.

That’s a fair bit of activity, but the Giants are still teeming with questions about the composition of both the lineup and the rotation. It doesn’t appear they consider their offense to be a finished product, however. San Francisco made a “late run” at Rhys Hoskins before he signed with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle hears the same but cautions that their offer “wasn’t close” to the two-year, $34MM deal Hoskins inked in Milwaukee. That pact also contains an opt-out provision following the 2024 season.

While the Giants have given opt-out clauses perhaps more regularly than any other team in MLB in recent years — e.g. Haniger, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling — Slusser reports that the team is trying to move away from that contract mold. (Lee’s deal also contains an opt-out, though that comes after four years as opposed to the short-term nature of the others just listed.) Whether it was the lack of an opt-out or reluctance to match the years/dollars on the deal, Hoskins preferred the Brewers’ offer and will spend at least the 2024 season in Milwaukee.

The Giants may have missed on Hoskins — an all too familiar refrain for their fans — but mere interest in the longtime Phillies slugger shows that the Giants remain interested in the possibility of adding a bat to the lineup at either first base or designated hitter. The market still offers quite a few options at both positions. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ran through some of the top unsigned first basemen earlier today (including old friend Brandon Belt), while DH types still on the market include Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez and Jorge Soler. Last year’s primary designated hitter, Joc Pederson, agreed to a one-year deal with the division-rival Diamondbacks just yesterday.

That said, Slusser also writes that third baseman Matt Chapman remains the Giants’ “top position-player target.” The 30-year-old, two-time Platinum Glove winner has ties to multiple Giants higher-ups; he was drafted by the Athletics when Zaidi was still an assistant GM in Oakland, and new Giants skipper Bob Melvin is obviously quite familiar with Chapman after managing him for the first five seasons of the third baseman’s career with the A’s. Zaidi has been focused on upgrading the team’s defense in addition to deepening his lineup, and Chapman could potentially check both boxes — particularly if he’s able to bounce back from the finger injury he sustained in the weight room in early August, which surely contributed to a disastrous finish at the plate (.183/.259/.318 over his final 139 plate appearances).

There’s still a fair bit of offseason left, but San Francisco’s options — particularly on the free agent market — have dwindled while quite a few needs remain unaddressed. The club hasn’t meaningfully upgraded its power production or added any stable innings behind Webb. The rotation behind the Cy Young runner-up is currently a hodgepodge of swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison, 26-year-old Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) and the aforementioned Hicks, who’s made all of eight starts in his MLB career. Alex Cobb should be back in the first half, and Ray could return after the All-Star break, but the Giants have spent more than $165MM in free agency so far and the roster doesn’t look definitively better than it did in 2023 when they lost 83 games.

The Top Unsigned Third Basemen

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the catchers, shortstops, center fielders and first basemen still available and will now take a look at some notable third basemen.

  • Matt Chapman: One of the best defensive third basemen in the league, Chapman leads the league in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating since the start of 2017. In terms of Outs Above Average, he’s second, trailing only Nolan Arenado. Offensively, he’s strikeout prone but takes his walks and hits home runs. His 2023 season ended up a bit below his previous work, though that may have been caused by a late-season finger injury. His 17 home runs were his first time below 24 in a full season. Chapman’s .240/.330/.424 batting line and 110 wRC+ were a bit lower than his career pace, but through August 13, when he hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he had 15 homers and was sitting on a line of .255/.346/.449 with a 121 wRC+. A down year by his standards, he still produced 3.5 fWAR, his lowest in a full season. He’s had interest from plenty of clubs this offseason but remains unattached as Spring Training nears. Chapman turned down a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, thus tying him to draft pick compensation.
  • Gio Urshela: Going back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees, Urshela has hit .291/.335/.452 for a wRC+ of 115. He’s generally considered a sure-handed defender, though the advanced metrics are split on his work at the hot corner. Urshela has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 13.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career work at third, but Outs Above Average gives him a dreary -18. He’s coming off a rough platform season, as he hit just two home runs in his 62 games with the Angels and walked in only 4.4% of his plate appearances. His .299/.329/.374 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92. He then suffered a season-ending pelvic fracture in June. Despite that rough year, he’s the best shot at an everyday third baseman apart from Chapman. There should be a huge difference in terms of their earning potential, which could make Urshela attractive to those who won’t come close to Chapman’s asking price.
  • Justin Turner: He won’t be relied upon as an everyday option at the hot corner or any other position, but Turner can still hit and isn’t entirely limited to a designated hitter role just yet. With the Red Sox in 2023, he appeared in 41 games at first, 10 at second and seven at third base. The Dodgers gave him 66 starts at the hot corner in 2022 and 135 the year before that. He’s now 39 years old and his time in the field will likely keep dwindling, but the bat still plays. He hit 23 home runs last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. A one-year deal seems likely.
  • Evan Longoria: One year younger than Turner, Longoria still managed to head out to third base in 41 contests in 2023, with solid metrics for his work out there. Unfortunately, his work at the plate wasn’t as strong. He had never struck out in more than 24% of his plate appearances in any season of his career until 2022, when that number jumped to 27.9% and then to 30.8% in the most recent campaign. His .223/.295/.422 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92 last year. But just the year prior, he hit .244/.315/.451 for the Giants, leading to a 116 wRC+. He won’t be considered an everyday option, having not played 90 games in a season since 2019.
  • Josh Donaldson: Detractors might say Donaldson is washed, and there are 2023 stats they can point to, such as a .152 batting average. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only played 51 games on the year. But he hit 13 home runs in that limited action and drew walks at an 11.6% rate. His .115 batting average on balls in play wouldn’t be sustained over a longer stretch of playing time, particularly given his 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 51.3% hard-hit rate, so perhaps there’s still a potent bat in there if the baseball gods quit messing with him. His defensive grades at the hot corner have stayed strong, even as he’s now 38 years old. Donaldson said in November he’d like to play for one more year and go out on a high note rather than the down season through which he struggled in 2023. He should be available on an inexpensive one-year contract.

Honorable mentions: Brian Anderson, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas

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