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Matt Chapman

MLBTR Poll: Matt Chapman’s Market

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Beyond Shohei Ohtani, the top of the free agent hitting market has been stagnant. Of the nine hitters in MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents, four (Ohtani, Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jung Hoo Lee) have come off the board. Just over a third of the 20 offensive players to make our Top 50 have signed.

There hasn’t even been much chatter about interest in a few of the market’s top bats. That includes third baseman Matt Chapman, on whom there has been radio silence since a December 4 report the Cubs were keeping an eye on his market. Chicago is among a handful of teams tied to the four-time Gold Glover winner in any capacity. The Blue Jays have expressed interest in a reunion, while the Giants (now led by former A’s manager Bob Melvin) have been linked throughout the offseason.

That trio stands as the likeliest group of suitors. The Cubs have been tied to a number of free agent targets (Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Shota Imanaga among them) but have yet to add anyone from the open market. Chicago allowed Candelario to walk and has an underwhelming group of third base options: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni.

Toronto has yet to significantly address the position since Chapman hit free agency. They brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal last week. He’s better suited as a utility player than a regular. Between Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio and prospect Addison Barger, the Jays could mix and match at the hot corner. No one from that group stands as a clear roadblock to Chapman, though.

In J.D. Davis, the Giants have a better in-house third base option than either Chicago or Toronto do. Chapman isn’t a marked offensive upgrade over Davis, who just turned in another slightly above-average season and has a career .261/.343/.432 hitter. It’s a different story on the other side of the ball.

Davis has been a fringe to below-average defender throughout his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated him favorably with the glove a season ago, but few would argue he’s all that close to Chapman defensively. Only the A’s allowed a higher batting average on ground-balls to the left side of the diamond than the Giants last year. While some of that is on the pitching staff and shortstops (primarily Brandon Crawford), signing Chapman would address that deficiency.

There are a few teams that arguably should be involved on Chapman, although none are without caveats. The Mets have kicked the tires on a few external options at third base — namely Justin Turner and Gio Urshela — after Ronny Mauricio went down with an ACL tear. Still, they don’t seem keen on a top-of-the-market splash as they envision Mauricio and/or Brett Baty as a long-term answer. While the Angels didn’t get much production out of third base, it’s hard to envision another pricey splash with Anthony Rendon due $38MM annually for the next three years. The Phillies appear content with Alec Bohm, while the Tigers have infield prospects Colt Keith and Jace Jung on the horizon.

The Yankees and Mariners have some questions at third base, but a run at Chapman wouldn’t align with their offseason trajectories. New York has tried to move away from their reliance on right-handed hitters with elevated strikeout rates; they’ve also declared DJ LeMahieu the expected starter. Seattle generally shies away from significant free agent contracts for hitters and is prioritizing high-contact bats this offseason.

How will that seemingly limited group of strong fits affect Chapman’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact as he enters his age-31 season. Players like Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson and Javier Báez who broadly fit Chapman’s profile — plus or better infield defenders with power but strikeout questions — have landed in that range in recent winters, although that group all had the advantage of playing shortstop.

Where will Chapman wind up and for how much money?

 

 

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Matt Chapman

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Much of the rumor mill this offseason regarding the Cubs has been tied to the top two positional free agents on the market- two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and center fielder Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom re-established himself as a star-level player this season after signing with Chicago on a one-year deal last offseason. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the club’s interest in top of the positional free agent market extends beyond those two names, as Chicago is “looking at” third baseman Matt Chapman. Heyman goes on to note that the Cubs are waiting on a decision from Ohtani before engaging with Bellinger and Chapman more substantially.

That the Cubs would have interest in Chapman’s services is hardly a surprise. While the club has a strong middle infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner providing solid offense paired with elite defense, the club’s production at the corner infield spots was far less impressive in 2023. The club’s 103 wRC+ at first base, which is somewhat inflated by the 59 appearances Bellinger made at the position, ranked just 17th in the majors. The hot corner was even more dire, as Chicago’s mix of third basemen including Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni combined for a wRC+ of just 92 with just 1.8 fWAR. The latter figure was the eleventh-worst production from third base among all major league clubs last season, despite a late-season boost from deadline addition Jeimer Candelario.

Meanwhile, Chapman is among the league’s premiere third basemen. Only Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Isaac Paredes posted more fWAR than Chapman’s 3.5 last season among regulars at the hot corner, while only ten third baseman posted a wRC+ better than Chapman’s figure of 110. In addition to improving Chicago’s dismal production at third base, Chapman would provide the club with a much-needed boost in power. While the Cubs’ offense scored the sixth-most runs in the majors last year, they ranked 12th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of just 104 thanks in large part to middling power production, as evidenced by their roughly average ISO (.167) and home run total (196).

That’s not to say Chapman comes without red flags, of course. While the 30-year-old has long been a reliable source of 25-to-30 home runs per season, he suffered something of a power outage in 2023 with just 17 home runs in 581 plate appearances. While his underlying metrics (including a 17.1% barrel rate and a career-best 56.1% Hard-Hit rate) suggest that lack of power production may not have been deserved, it’s still a somewhat worrying sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30 who regularly posts strikeout rates that approach 30%. Despite those concerns, MLBTR projected Chapman for a six-year, $150MM deal this offseason while ranking him as the winter’s third-best positional free agent and seventh overall on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Much of that value comes from the slugger’s glove.

Though he hasn’t posted the elite OAA numbers in recent years that he did earlier in his career, Chapman is still on the shortlist of best defensive third baseman in the game; his +5 OAA in 2023 ranked in the 87th percentile, while his +12 DRS leaves him as the 12th most valuable infielder with the glove in baseball last year. Even if his offense is closer to the 110 wRC+ range than his career mark of 118 or the 130 wRC+ he posted during his peak years of 2018-20, pairing Chapman with Swanson and Hoerner on the infield dirt would put the Cubs in the conversation for the best infield defense in the sport.

Just as the Cubs are looking into other options besides Chapman as they look to add an impact bat in free agency, so too does Chapman have other suitors beyond Chicago. Both the Giants and the incumbent Blue Jays have also been connected to the infield so far this offseason, with Toronto having reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100MM in the four-to-five year range before he even hit the open market. An interesting wrinkle in the Chapman sweepstakes is that each of the aforementioned teams he’s been connected to so far this winter are also rumored to be among the remaining suitors for Ohtani.

Though it’s at least feasible that a club could look to sign Chapman this winter even after landing Ohtani, it’s impossible to predict what sort of payroll space any team would have remaining after committing $500MM or more to the offseason’s top free agent. Given that uncertainty and the position of Chapman’s publicly-known suitors as potential players in the Ohtani sweepstakes, it would be a surprise if a signing was imminent for the offseason’s top infielder.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Guerrero, Chapman, Nola

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has come up in some trade rumors this offseason but it doesn’t appear there’s much momentum towards a deal there. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet addressed the possibility in columns today, both downplaying the likelihood of the Jays choosing this path.

Nicholson-Smith says he spoke with executives with teams other than the Jays, who gave him the impression the Jays are planning to hold. Rosenthal says the Jays are indeed getting calls from other clubs about Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but that doesn’t mean they are motivated to move either.

This is all fairly understandable under the conditions of this winter’s market. It’s generally agreed that the crop of free agent hitters is on the weak side, which would naturally lead clubs to find upgrades on the trading block. But the Jays are also looking to upgrade their own position player group, having to replace free agents Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. Subtracting Bichette and/or Guerrero would only make that task harder and it’s hard to imagine a trade that would make sense for both sides.

Each of Bichette and Guerrero are two years away from free agency, so any club looking to acquire them would naturally be in win-now mode. But the Jays are in a competitive window as well, meaning MLB-ready talent would have to be coming back in exchange, and it would be difficult to send something to the Jays that makes the club better than Bichette does. The shortstop has produced 13.5 wins above replacement over the past three years, per FanGraphs, which puts him in the top 25 of all position players in the league. Guerrero’s past two seasons weren’t as strong as his 2021 campaign but he was still good for roughly 30 homers with a low strikeout rate. With the Jays actively pursuing Shohei Ohtani, parting ways with a star player like Bichette or Guerrero wouldn’t help their pitch.

In terms of Toronto’s pursuits, it’s been reported that the Jays are interested in a Chapman reunion and that still appears to be the case. Both Nicholson-Smith and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com indicate that the dialogue is still open between the Jays and Chapman but it doesn’t appear there’s anything close to getting done. Chapman reportedly turned down an extension offer of four or five years while still with the club.

Another option the Jays considered was right-hander Aaron Nola, with Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club “showed early interest” in the righty before he re-signed with the Phillies. Though the lineup seems to the priority for the Jays, it seems there’s at least some openness to a rotation addition, with the Jays having also been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The rotation already has Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in four spots, with Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Mitch White and prospect Ricky Tiedemann options for the back end. Adding Nola or Yamamoto in there would likely lead to someone becoming available in trade, with Jays reportedly open to moving Manoah.

Overall, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Jays thus far, with the team having only made perfunctory transactions in the past few weeks. It’s entirely possible that all their upcoming moves will hinge on their pursuit of Ohtani, as the club is seen as one of a handful of legitimate contenders for the two-way superstar. Though they have some openness to reuniting with Chapman, pursuing Yamamoto or perhaps going after Cody Bellinger, all of those options may be on the backburner until the Ohtani situation has some clarity. Since Ohtani is widely expected to require a record-breaking deal of $500MM or more, it stands to reason that the club would want to figure out their chances there before committing to other options that will also require significant funds.

Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Matt Chapman Turned Down Prior Extension Offer From Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays made an attempt at extending Matt Chapman before he reached free agency, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports, but Chapman rejected Toronto’s offer.  It isn’t known exactly when the Jays made the offer or how much was on the table, though Mitchell indicates that Chapman passed on more than $100MM over the span of a four- or five-year contract.

This is notably less than the six-year, $150MM deal that MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for Chapman, who ranked seventh on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  With Shohei Ohtani as a DH-only player, Cody Bellinger (ranked #2) and Chapman are the only true position players ranked within the top 11 on MLBTR’s list, amidst a free agent class that is heavy on pitching.

The relative lack of position-player depth on the market is to Chapman’s benefit after something of a shaky season.  Chapman generated 3.5 fWAR largely on the strength another outstanding defensive performance, as Chapman earned the fourth Gold Glove of his career.  His .240/.330/.424 slash line and 17 homers over 581 plate appearances resulted in an above-average 110 wRC+, though Chapman struggled badly at the plate after winning AL Player Of The Month honors in April, and a finger injury later in the season contributed in part to those struggles.

However, Chapman’s hard-contact numbers were among the best of any player in baseball.  This has been a trend throughout much of Chapman’s career, and 2023 also continued his track record of above-average walk rates and a lot of strikeouts.  Since Chapman was on a hot streak at the plate in July and early August, agent Scott Boras will surely point to the finger injury as the major culprit for the offensive downturn, arguing that a healthy Chapman will post better numbers going forward….and thus be worthy of a heftier contract.

It is relatively rare to see top-tier free agents like Chapman accept extension offers so close to free agency, and very rare to see a Boras client pass up a chance at testing the open market.  Mitchell feels that the Blue Jays might still be candidates to re-sign Chapman, but perhaps only in a situation where Chapman circles back if he can’t find a larger deal, rather than a case of the Jays increasing their offer.

Since Chapman will almost surely reject the one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer before today’s deadline, the Blue Jays stand to recoup an extra draft pick if Chapman signs elsewhere.  This compensatory pick would fall between the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 draft, since Toronto surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023.  The Jays are looking for multiple position players whether or not Chapman returns, though obviously retaining the third baseman would address one major hole in the lineup.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Blue Jays Hope To Add Multiple Position Players This Offseason

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media at the GM Meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet passing along some of his quotes. Atkins discussed many details but the overarching takeaway was that the Jays are looking to add position players, with Atkins saying it could be anywhere from one to four players but it would most likely be two or three.

That pursuit is understandable given the results from the season that just ended. Though the Jays qualified for the postseason, their strength was their pitching and defense. The club had a combined wRC+ of 107 at the plate during the regular season, which wasn’t terrible, putting them just inside the top 10 league-wide. But they scored just one run across two games against the Twins in the Wild Card round and then saw Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier become free agents, depriving the club of four regular members of the lineup.

Atkins went on to address the free agent market, which is generally considered light on impact position players beyond Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, though the GM doesn’t necessarily view it that way. He said that “there are some really compelling players” available beyond the top of the market but they could also look to the trade market since they “still have the depth to trade from.”

Infield is likely to be a focus for the club, since Chapman was an everyday player at third base, while Merrifield split his time between second and the outfield and Belt played a bit of first base when he wasn’t the designated hitter. The Jays have plenty of infielders on the roster but, outside of shortstop Bo Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., many of them are unproven at the big league level or are perhaps better suited to a bench/utility role.

Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Spencer Horwitz, Ernie Clement, Otto López, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez are all infielders on the 40-man roster but it’s unclear if the Jays want to rely on anyone in that group to step up and replace those that are departing. That is perhaps why Atkins gave the wide swath of possibilities for this winter.

Free agency features some potential solutions, such as Gio Urshela or Amed Rosario, though bringing Chapman back still seems to be on the table. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Chapman is at the GM Meetings and has met with multiple teams, including the Jays. Chapman is coming off an uneven season but is still going to be one of the top free agents available this winter. He recently took the #7 spot on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason, with a prediction of $150MM over six years.

Another option would be corner infielder Jeimer Candelario, who came in #13 on that MLBTR list with a prediction of $70MM over four years. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the Jays met with Candelario’s reps at the GM meetings, indicating they are open to him as a Chapman replacement. Candelario looked to be establishing himself as an everyday player in Detroit not too long ago, hitting .278/.356/.458 over 2020 and 2021 for a wRC+ of 124. But he then endured a nightmare season in 2022 and got non-tendered. Splitting 2023 between the Nationals and Cubs, he got back on track with a .251/.336/.471 line and 117 wRC+. He’s generally been regarded as a passable but subpar defender in that time.

It’s also possible the Jays go another direction and lump multiple younger players together in a trade for an established major leaguer. That’s how they acquired Chapman in the first place, sending four less-established players to the A’s in March of 2022. Given the aforementioned glut of infielders, it’s possible the Jays could look to do something like that again.

On the trade front, Nicholson-Smith reports that third baseman Eugenio Suárez of the Mariners is one of the players they are interested in. It’s unknown if Seattle has openness to such a deal, but it seems possible. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said yesterday that the club is looking to reduce the amount of strikeouts in the lineup and moving on from Suárez would certainly help in that department. Each of the past five seasons has ended with his strikeout rate near 30%, when the league average is usually in the 22-23% range.

That hasn’t stopped him from being a useful hitter, but with year-to-year inconsistency. While his strikeout rate has been steadily high in those five recent campaigns, the power and batting average have oscillated. That has resulted in two season with a wRC+ of 130, a couple close to league average and one way down at 85. On defense, he’s generally considered passable at third, though Outs Above Average loved his 2023 season. That metric considered him to be league average over the 2018-2022 period but gave him +11 in 2023. He has one year left on his contract with a club option for 2025. He’s set to make a salary of $11MM in the upcoming campaign with the option valued at $15MM and coming with a $2MM buyout.

Another option that the Jays are open to is first baseman Joey Votto, who is now a free agent for the first time in his career after the Reds declined their 2024 club option. He has been a speculative fit for the Jays going back many years since he grew up in Etobicoke, which was amalgamated into Toronto in 1998. “Incredible player, remarkable career,” Atkins said of Votto. “They’re just massive impact in the community if he were to be a Toronto Blue Jay. So definitely something that we would have to consider if that was something he wanted to pursue.” Though he added that Votto’s reputation would lead to him finding interest outside of his stomping grounds. “Incredible reputation, really dynamic personality, really bright (person) that I know our team would embrace,” Atkins said. “But I think that’s the case for probably 15 teams.”

Despite Votto’s incredible career, he’s not coming into free agency on a high note, having hit .204/.317/.394 over the past two seasons with a shoulder surgery in between those campaigns. It’s a somewhat similar scenario to Belt, who joined the Jays after a poor 2022 campaign that was ended by knee surgery. But Belt was going into his age-35 season when he was signed whereas Votto is now 40. Both are left-handed hitters at first base and the designated hitter spot, so it’s possible Votto could be viewed as a Belt replacement, but the Jays might have less faith in a post-surgery bounceback from Votto given the age disparity.

In the outfield, the Jays could look for a center fielder to replace Kiermaier though Daulton Varsho is also a capable center fielder, which could allow them to add in a corner. But Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports they are showing interest in free agent Michael A. Taylor. He’s a similar player to Kiermaier as both are considered excellent defensive center fielders but with lesser reputations on offense. Taylor hit 21 home runs in 2023 but his 6.7% walk rate and 33.5% strikeout rate were both worse than league average, resulting in a 96 wRC+. The defensive metrics have continued to be excellent though, as they have all throughout his career.

Though the lineup figures to be the primary concern, there is some uncertainty on the pitching staff. Four rotation spots should be spoken for with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all under contract and set to return in 2024, though the free agency of Hyun Jin Ryu leaves one spot open. That could go to Alek Manoah, who was excellent in 2021 and 2022, but 2023 was a different story. He posted a 5.87 ERA and was optioned to the minors multiple times as the relationship between him and the club appeared to sour. Perhaps there is some hope of getting back on track next year, as Atkins tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com “I do feel like he has earned, already, the right to have a strong leg up” for that spot. Manoah may have some competition, as the Jays recently added Mitch White back to their roster, while prospect Ricky Tiedemann reached Triple-A in 2023.

Davidi adds that the Jays are interested in Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with Atkins having gone to Japan to scout him three times this past year. They surely won’t be alone in that pursuit since Yamamoto is only 25 years old and has been one of the best pitchers in Japan for years, leading MLBTR to predict a contract of $225MM over nine years. Whether the club would upgrade their relatively strong rotation while having clear needs in the lineup is something that was asked of Atkins. “I feel like we will have the opportunity to present those types of significant adds or acquisitions to ownership. We’ve been given so much support that I wouldn’t say that that is unrealistic to do both.”

The club’s president/CEO Mark Shapiro previously stated that he expects next year’s payroll to be similar to this year’s, though they are already close on that front. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day payroll at $210MM in 2023 and now Roster Resource has them slated for $205MM next year. That includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but even a couple of non-tenders would only drop them down a bit below $200MM. Though if the competitive balance tax is the larger concern, there should be more wiggle room. RR estimates the club got to $246MM in terms of CBT in 2023 but is only at $216MM at the moment, with a few non-tenders likely to knock that down some.

Elsewhere in Blue Jays’ notes, they announced that Carlos Febles will be their third base coach next year, replacing Luis Rivera. It was reported last month that Rivera is retiring after 11 years in that gig for Toronto. Febles has been part of the Red Sox’ organization for the past two decades, serving as that club’s third base coach since 2018.

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

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