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Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

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The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade

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The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.

As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.

The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.

If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.

Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.

Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.

Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.

Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.

Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.

Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.

Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Winter Goals

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The Blue Jays would love to add an infielder to complement their current mix of young gloves in the dirt, but it’s not a necessity, says GM Ross Atkins, per Scott Mitchell of TSN. That includes, of course, a potential reunion with Marcus Semien, though having a versatile defensive player like Cavan Biggio on the roster gives Atkins some flexibility. Filling Semien’s spot at the keystone is the natural place to add an infielder, but Biggio could slide to second, opening the hot corner for a bigger fish like Matt Chapman of the A’s, whom Mitchell speculates could be a target.

Of course, injuries limited the 26-year-old Biggio to just 79 games last season and a .224/.322/.356 batting line, so an argument could be made to look for an upgrade at third base regardless of what happens at second. Wherever they make additions, for the second consecutive winter, the Blue Jays are no doubt buyers in this free agent market. If not another infielder, Toronto will surely explore rotation and bullpen upgrades, notes Mitchell.

Specifically, Atkins did not rule out getting a more established closer that might bump Jordan Romano from the role that he stepped into last season. Romano notched 23 games for the Jays last season, but he also picked up a handful of holds while only recording a single blown save. Steady as he was, there is no such thing as too many high leverage arms.

Athletics Appear Set For Significant Payroll Reduction

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7:29 pm: Forst addressed the club’s likely forthcoming payroll cuts this evening, telling Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) the team is willing to field offers for any player on the roster. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

10:30 am: The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon. General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.

“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”

While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50MM. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.

One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how, based on their typical payroll levels, the A’s were unlikely to spend to keep a deep arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over this season’s $83.8MM payroll — already the fourth-highest in franchise history and not far below the team record of $92MM. That increase would come before making a single addition to the 2022 roster.

When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12MM, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2MM), Chapman ($9.5MM), Bassitt ($8.8MM) and Montas ($5.2MM) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.

The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25MM, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25MM through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.

Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:

  • Olson (28 next year): A 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Olson leads all first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved and a 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2017. He’s sixth among first basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average during that time. Olson swatted a career-best 39 home runs in 2021 and, most importantly, cut his once-problematic strikeout rate to an 16.8% level that is well below the league average. Olson walks at a high clip, has massive left-handed power, plays elite defense and looks to have made huge gains in his contact skills. He hit .271/.371/.540 in 2021 despite a cavernous home stadium.
  • Chapman (29 next year): As with Olson, Chapman is a preternatural defender. Since 2017, the two-time Platinum Glover leads third basemen in DRS (78) and UZR (48.7) and trails only Nolan Arenado in OAA (48). Chapman has huge power, but his contact trends have gone in the opposite direction of Olson. Chapman, whose 2020 season ended early due to hip surgery, struck out at a 22.8% clip from 2018-19 but a 33.1% pace in 2020-21. The glove is still elite, and Chapman has still bashed 37 homers in his past 774 plate appearances while walking at an 11.4% clip. The current version of Chapman has huge value, but if the strikeouts decline as he further distances himself from the hip injury, he has MVP-caliber talent.
  • Manaea (30 next year): Manaea’s 2018 season ended with major shoulder surgery, and he missed most of 2019 while on the mend. Since returning, he’s delivered 263 innings of 3.73 ERA  ball with near-identical reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.78). In that time, Manaea has a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 43.8% grounder rate — all strong marks. He moved from a four-seamer to a sinker this season, and the 92.2 mph average on that sinker was the best velocity on his primary offering since his four-seamer sat 93.1 mph as a rookie in 2016. He’s a one-year rental, but a good one.
  • Bassitt (33 next year): A frightening injury that saw Bassitt struck in the face by a 100 mph-plus line drive in August looked like it might end his season. Bassitt, however, returned from surgery to repair facial fractures on Sept. 23 and made two appearances to close out his season (6 1/3 innings, one run allowed). Since establishing himself as a big leaguer in 2018, the late-blooming righty has a 3.23 ERA, a 23.1% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate and a 42.3% grounder rate in 412 innings. This past season’s 25% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were career-highs. Like Manaea, Bassitt is a free agent next winter but would make a fine rental for a contender.
  • Montas (29 next year): Montas consistently averages better than 96 mph on his heater. The 2021 season was his first topping 100 innings, thanks to a combination of injuries, the shortened 2020 campaign and an 80-game PED ban. Lack of innings notwithstanding, Montas has been effective on the whole since 2018, logging a combined 3.57 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates. The 2021 season looked to be a true breakout, as Montas ranked ninth in MLB with 187 innings and turned in a 3.37 ERA with a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.

The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.

In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.

The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.

2021 Gold Glove Winners Announced

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The 2021 Gold Glove winners were announced tonight, with plenty of Cardinal Red to be found amidst the gold.  The Cardinals became the first team to ever have five players capture Gold Gloves, underlining the tremendous all-around defensive effort that helped St. Louis reach the postseason.  Ironically, the only nominated Cardinals player who didn’t win was the most decorated name of the group — nine-time winner Yadier Molina.

The A’s, Royals, Astros, and the World Series champion Braves also had multiple winners, with each club boasting two Gold Glovers.  Ten of the 18 winners captured their first Gold Gloves, though some veteran winners continued to shine.  The most notable of the multiple-time winners is Nolan Arenado, who becomes the 23rd player to ever win nine or more Gold Gloves in his career.  Arenado still has plenty of time to continue his climb up the all-time list, yet catching 16-time winner Brooks Robinson for the all-time third base record may be a tall order even for Arenado.

Here is the full list of winners, as well as the other two nominated finalists at each position….

NL Catcher: Jacob Stallings, Pirates (1st career Gold Glove)
Yadier Molina/Cardinals, J.T. Realmuto/Phillies

NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (4th)
Freddie Freeman/Braves, Max Muncy/Dodgers

NL Second Base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals (1st)
Ozzie Albies/Braves, Kolten Wong/Brewers

NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (9th)
Manny Machado/Padres, Ryan McMahon/Rockies

NL Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants (4th)
Francisco Lindor/Mets, Kevin Newman/Pirates

NL Left Field: Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2nd)
David Peralta/Diamondbacks, AJ Pollock/Dodgers

NL Center Field: Harrison Bader, Cardinals (1st)
Jackie Bradley Jr./Brewers, Bryan Reynolds/Pirates

NL Right Field: Adam Duvall, Braves/Marlins (1st)
Mookie Betts/Dodgers, Mike Yastrzemski/Giants

NL Pitcher: Max Fried/Braves (2nd)
Zach Davies/Cubs, Zack Wheeler/Phillies

AL Catcher: Sean Murphy, Athletics (1st)
Martin Maldonado/Astros, Salvador Perez/Royals

AL First Base: Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1st)
Matt Olson/Athletics, Jared Walsh/Angels

AL Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st)
David Fletcher/Angels, Whit Merrifield/Royals

AL Third Base: Matt Chapman, Athletics (3rd)
Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Joey Wendle/Rays

AL Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros (1st)
J.P. Crawford/Mariners, Andrelton Simmons/Twins

AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1st)
Randy Arozarena/Rays, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Blue Jays

AL Center Field: Michael A. Taylor, Royals (1st)
Kevin Kiermaier/Rays, Myles Straw/Guardians

AL Right Field: Joey Gallo, Yankees/Rangers (2nd)
Hunter Renfroe/Red Sox, Kyle Tucker/Astros

AL Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (5th)
Jose Berrios/Blue Jays and Twins, Zack Greinke/Astros

AL West Notes: Chapman, Fiers, Greinke, Cobb, Rodriguez

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X-rays were negative on Matt Chapman’s left foot/shin area after the Athletics third baseman fouled a ball off himself during today’s 8-6 loss to the Rangers.  Chapman’s last plate appearance took place in the third inning, though he returned to the field in the next inning before being removed from the game prior to the top of the fifth.  A’s manager Bob Melvin told The San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters that Chapman likely won’t play on Sunday out of precaution.

Since the A’s don’t play on Monday, Chapman would get a full two days of recovery time, with an eye towards returning when the Athletics begin a road series with the Royals on Tuesday.  It has been an inconsistent season overall for Chapman, though he has been one of Oakland’s hotter players in the second half, batting .223/.338/.538 with 13 home runs in his 154 plate appearances entering today’s game.

More from the AL West…

  • Mike Fiers has missed almost the entire season due to injury, though the veteran righty might yet be able to return to the Athletics before the 2021 campaign is out.  Fiers threw 25 pitches during a live batting practice session on Friday, and Bob Melvin told reporters (including MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos) that Fiers is set for a Triple-A rehab outing this week.  A right elbow sprain has sidelined Fiers since May 6, so he would almost surely be returning as a reliever if he does get back to Oakland’s active roster, since there doesn’t seem to be enough time for Fiers to ramp up for a starting pitcher’s workload.  Between that elbow sprain and an early-season hip issue, Fiers has tossed only 9 1/3 innings in 2021, with a 7.71 ERA.
  • After being placed on the Astros’ COVID-related injury list on August 31, Zack Greinke is scheduled to return and start on Tuesday when the Astros face the Rangers.  Greinke, his wife, and his two sons all tested positive for the coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated, the right-hander told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome), and all are now recovered.  Greinke has a 3.66 ERA/4.55 SIERA over 159 2/3 innings this season, as one of the league’s best walk rates (5.0%) has helped Greinke succeed despite a 17% strikeout rate, his lowest K% since the 2005 season.
  • Alex Cobb threw three simulated innings yesterday, and Angels manager Joe Maddon told Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register (Twitter links) that Cobb could potentially be activated off the 10-day IL for a start this week.  Cobb has been out of action since July 30 due to right wrist inflammation.  Despite this missed time and an earlier injured-list stint due to blister problems, Cobb has been one of the Angels’ better starters this year, with a 3.82 ERA/3.65 SIERA, 53.8% grounder rate, and a career-best 25.7% strikeout rate over 77 2/3 innings.
  • Also from Maddon, he announced that right-hander Chris Rodriguez has been shut down for the remainder of the season.  Rodriguez has been on the minor league IL due to a lat strain for almost a month, and he also spent a month on the Angels’ injured list due to shoulder inflammation earlier this season.  Injuries have plagued Rodriguez for much of his pro career, though he did make his MLB debut this year, and posted a respectable 3.64 ERA over 29 2/3 innings (starting two of 15 games).

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

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The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Latest On Athletics’ Stadium Situation

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JULY 21: Against the A’s wishes, the Council approved the City’s tentative financial plan at yesterday’s meeting, albeit with an amendment that made clear the A’s would not be responsible for certain infrastructure improvements. (Ravani and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times were among those to cover the news). Kaval and Manfred expressed disappointment with the decision, although the next steps for the team remain unclear. Schaaf told reporters this afternoon she remained optimistic about keeping the A’s in Oakland.

Scott Boras, agent for A’s star third baseman Matt Chapman, addressed the ongoing saga this week. Boras implied that any extension negotiations with Chapman would wait until the stadium situation was resolved, telling Matt Kawahara of the Chronicle that “we’re going to see them take care of their infrastructure first and then address the player element later, I think.”

JULY 18: The City of Oakland released a proposed financial plan regarding development of a potential new waterfront stadium for the Athletics on Friday, reports Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A’s are unhappy with the terms, which team president Dave Kaval called a “step backwards” in the disucssions.

The Oakland City Council is set to hold a non-binding vote on Tuesday regarding the A’s proposal for a $12 billion mixed-use development plan, which includes the stadium. A “yes” vote from the Council wouldn’t finalize any sort of development agreement or term sheet, but it would allow the City and team to continue talks regarding the potential construction of a waterfront stadium at Oakland’s Howard Terminal, which the A’s have previously claimed to be the last viable ballpark location in Oakland. A “no” vote from the Council might kill the project entirely, Ravani writes.

Kaval suggested that approval of the City’s Friday proposal would be tantamount to a rejection of the A’s plan. However, Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf pushed back against that characterization, saying the City’s proposal moves the project forward and expressing optimism about the parties’ ability to close the gap.

Unsurprisingly, it seems the biggest issue involves the extent of infrastructure taxes to finance the project. While the A’s have pushed for two infrastructure tax districts in their proposals, the City’s terms have thus far excluded the creation of a second district that would cover much of Jack London Square. Indeed, that’s the main impetus for the A’s criticism of the most recent proposal, Kaval told Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News. However, Ravani writes that the two sides have seemed to make progress on other issues regarding affordable housing and the length of a potential non-relocation agreement.

The City Council’s vote next week will take place against the looming threat of a potential relocation of the franchise. The A’s have been looking into the possibility of relocation since May, with Las Vegas appearing to be the most likely destination if they don’t come to an agreement with Oakland. Speaking with reporters during All-Star festivities this week, commissioner Rob Manfred called Vegas one of multiple “viable alternatives” for the A’s if a new deal with Oakland isn’t ultimately finalized.

Athletics Rumors: Semien, Olson, Chapman, Fiers

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The Athletics lost stalwart shortstop Marcus Semien to the Blue Jays via free agency this week, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Oakland never made a formal offer before Semien signed in Toronto for $18MM. Rather, the A’s “floated”  the concept of a one-year deal at a $12.5MM guarantee. Given that $12.5MM would represent a pay decrease, Semien was never likely to consider that in the first place, but Rosenthal further adds that a whopping $10MM of that sum would’ve been deferred over a period of 10 years.

No one expected the A’s to spend much this winter, but a contract structure of that nature feels borderline insulting to a player like Semien, who has been a constant on the A’s roster over the past six seasons. That’s all the more true when Semien had a clearly stronger offer from the Blue Jays and, seemingly, a stronger offer from the Twins (via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes). If the A’s are that strapped for cash, it’s both hard to envision them making any serious additions this winter and unsurprising that fellow infielder Tommy La Stella found a greater offer across town from the Giants.

Some more notes on the A’s…

  • Despite those payroll concerns and the escalating prices of third baseman Matt Chapman and first baseman Matt Olson, the A’s aren’t discussing either of their corner infielders in trades, Rosenthal further reports. Chapman agreed to a $6.49MM deal for the upcoming season, while Olson will earn $5MM. Both sluggers figure to be in line for considerable raises next winter, however, and it’s an open question as to just how long the A’s can hang onto them. Oakland controls both through the 2023 season, but it’s not unreasonable to think that one or both sluggers could vault close to the eight-figure range in 2022 or even exceed that threshold (particularly in Chapman’s case).
  • Free-agent righty Mike Fiers tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he hopes to return to the Athletics in 2021. “I had the best time there,” Fiers told Slusser. “I felt like I could be myself, just be the guy I am and help people and play for Bob Melvin, who is obviously one of the best managers in baseball and a guy that really wants to win and does everything he can to win.” Fiers added that while he’s pitched for several franchises, the A’s felt like “home.” The righty is open to a one-year deal, which almost feels like a prerequisite given the Athletics’ aversion to spending this winter, but it remains to be seen if they’ll even put forth an offer of any type to the righty. Fiers’ fastball dipped to a career-low 88.4 mph in 2020 — a 2.4 mph decrease from his 2019 velocity. He was still serviceable, however, with a 4.58 ERA in 11 starts and 59 innings. Since being traded to Oakland in 2018, Fiers has an even 4.00 ERA in 296 2/3 innings with the A’s. He’s logged a below-average 17.6 percent strikeout rate, but his 6.5 percent walk rate is much better than the league average of 8.6 percent.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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