Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Matt Chapman

Giants Interested In Longer-Term Deal With Matt Chapman

By | at

The Giants’ late offseason dealings saw them sign two of the four prominent free agents who lingered on the market late into the offseason, inking Blake Snell on a two-year, $62MM deal and Matt Chapman on a three-year, $54MM pact. Both contracts came with opt-out opportunities this offseason — Chapman’s also has an opt-out opportunity post-2025 — and despite an early slate of injuries for Snell, both are looking like shrewd pickups now.

Snell has garnered more attention recently, which is understandable on the heels of a 15-strikeout performance that was immediately followed by a no-hitter in Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But while Snell draws headlines, Chapman continues to more quietly post excellent numbers. Both players look like locks to opt out at season’s end right now, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants have interest in signing Chapman to a long-term deal that’d keep him in San Francisco.

For the 31-year-old Chapman, the 2024 season has played out in almost inverse fashion to his 2023 campaign. Last year, Chapman roared out of the gates with a Ruthian start to his season, hitting .384/.465/.687 through the end of April. He was never going to sustain that level of production, but the extent to which his bat cratered was nonetheless alarming. The two-time Platinum Glove winner hit just .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. A hand injury suffered in August likely contributed to a truly dismal finish, but even leading up to that injury, Chapman had been a below-average hitter for a stretch of more than three months.

That cold snap carried over into the 2024 season, as Chapman hit just .222/.266/.385 through the end of April. Since then, however, he’s turned his season around. In 367 plate appearances since May 1, Chapman is touting a .257/.360/.473 batting line. He’s homered 15 times, walked at an impressive 13.1% clip and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s 28.4% down to 24.3% in that stretch. (If you truly want to cherry-pick, Chapman is slashing .275/.382/.519 since May 17.)

It’s been an odd stretch for Chapman, who from May 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024 looked the part of a hitter very much on the decline. He’s now spent more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances distancing himself from that slump, however — and he’s done so while playing his customary brand of standout defense. Between his renaissance at the plate and his always excellent glovework, Chapman has been worth 5.3 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) and 3.8 WAR, per FanGraphs. The discrepancy stems primarily from bWAR using Defensive Runs Saved in its equation (which credits Chapman as an elite defender), whereas fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (which feel he’s been “merely” above-average). Regardless of one’s preferred version of the stat, Chapman has graded out as a star-caliber player this season. If he continues this pace, he’ll likely garner some down-ballot MVP votes.

Given the manner in which his season has played out, it’s not all that surprising to hear the Giants have interest in keeping him around. It can’t hurt that San Francisco brass was quite familiar with Chapman even before he signed there. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was an assistant general manager with the A’s in 2014 when they selected Chapman with the 25th overall pick in the draft. Skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman in Oakland from 2017-21.

Many of the roadblocks that prevented Chapman from landing the nine-figure deal most anticipated last year still persist. He’s 31 years old and will turn 32 next April. There’s minimal precedent for position players at that age signing for $100MM+. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado are the only hitters in the past decade to sign contracts of that magnitude beginning in their age-32 season (or later). Of course, rare precedent doesn’t rule out the possibility — and there’s also nothing yet suggesting that Chapman is dead set on a nine-figure deal (though given the strength of his season it certainly seems like a likely goal for Chapman and agent Scott Boras).

The Giants have just under $85MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season (not counting the buyout on Chapman’s $18MM option). That’d jump to more than $135MM if each of Snell ($30MM), Chapman ($18MM) and Wilmer Flores ($3.5MM) picked up their player options. Flores seems likely to do so, but he could be the only one if Snell and Chapman stay healthy. Arbitration raises will be owed to Mike Yastrzemski (earning $7.9MM this year), LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3.5MM in ’24), Tyler Rogers ($3.2MM), Thairo Estrada ($4.7MM) and first-time-eligible closer Camilo Doval, regardless of the fact he was optioned to the minors tonight.  No one from that group is going to push the Giants into uncharted payroll territory, and Estrada’s not guaranteed to be tendered a contract in light of his injuries and offensive struggles.

Looking further down the road, the only players on the books beyond the 2025 season are Robbie Ray (signed through 2026), Jordan Hicks (through 2027), Logan Webb (through 2028) and Jung Hoo Lee (through 2029). Ray can opt out after the current season (unlikely at the moment), while Lee can opt out after 2027 (although it’s far too soon to tell whether that’s realistic). Regardless of how those opt-outs play out, the Giants are just over $80MM in terms of guaranteed payroll in each of the next two seasons and around $60MM in 2026 and $45MM in 2027. There’s ample room on the payroll to factor in a long-term arrangement for Chapman, if the two sides can come to terms on a price point that’s agreeable for all parties.

The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

By | at

With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

By | at

We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

AL East Notes: Rosario, Peraza, Chapman, Orioles, Wong

By | at

Before Amed Rosario signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Rays, the Yankees offered the infielder a one-year contract with a significantly higher $4MM salary, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports.  While Rosario can earn another $500K in bonus money with Tampa, agent Ulises Cabrera told Sherman that his client was more interested in steady playing time than in extra guaranteed salary, as Rosario would’ve been ticketed as a bench or backup option in the Bronx.  Since Yankee targets Rosario and Enrique Hernandez have now both left the free agent market, Sherman feels the team will keep looking for veteran infield depth, and perhaps might pursue players currently on other rosters who might be cut or squeezed out of jobs late in Spring Training.

Oswald Peraza, of course, is ostensibly already slated to be New York’s backup infielder and backup shortstop in particular.  However, the Yankees might prefer to continue Peraza’s development by giving him everyday work at Triple-A rather than more a sporadic part-time role in the Show.  There is also the question of Peraza’s health, as a right shoulder issue has been bothering the infielder for the last two weeks.  Manager Aaron Boone said the Yankees don’t consider the injury to be overly serious for now, though Peraza is undergoing testing to determine the nature of the problem.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays offered Matt Chapman a two-year contract before he signed with the Giants, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Given how long Chapman lingered on the market, it isn’t surprising that the Jays made a late bid to gauge his interest in a return to Toronto, even if Chapman’s “first choice” as per Heyman was reuniting with his old manager Bob Melvin in San Francisco.  It can probably be assumed that the Blue Jays’ offer contained a player opt-out after the 2024 season, given how Chapman’s eventual three-year deal with the Giants has opt-outs after each of the first two years, plus both sides have a mutual option for the 2027 season.  Re-installing Chapman at third base would’ve solidified the Jays’ infield situation, even if it would’ve made for a crowded mix of players fighting for regular work at second base and in backup roles.  Had Chapman re-signed, Justin Turner would’ve been limited to first base and DH at-bats, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal all would’ve been vying to be the right-handed hitting side of a second base platoon with Cavan Biggio.
  • Virtually all of Kolten Wong’s Major League experience has come as a second baseman, though his appearance at third base in yesterday’s Grapefruit League game marked his first time at the hot corner since college, Wong told MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters.  “That’s just how the trend is going nowadays, is being versatile,” Wong said, and he is more than happy to shift positions if it means winning a job on the Orioles’ roster.  Wong is signed a minor league deal with Baltimore and is looking to rebound after a dismal 2023 season, though he’ll be in for a tough competition on a roster loaded with young infield talent and a couple of more established veterans in Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias.
  • David Rubenstein’s impending purchase of the Orioles took another step towards completion yesterday when the league’s ownership committee approved the sale.  (ESPN’s Jeff Passan was among those to report on the news.)  Rubenstein will now need approval from the eight-man executive council, and then receive at least 23 of the votes from all 30 ownership groups in order for the sale to be completely finalized.  The process isn’t expected to run into any roadblocks, so the sale could be official in April.

MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain

By | at

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
  • Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
  • What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
  • What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
  • Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
  • Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
  • Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
  • Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
  • Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
  • What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
  • What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
  • Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
  • What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
  • The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
  • Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
  • Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
  • Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants Sign Matt Chapman

By | at

MARCH 3: The Giants officially announced Chapman’s signing and the terms, with the additional detail that the contract includes a mutual option covering the 2027 season.

Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025.  If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached.  Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.

MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.

He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.

Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.

The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.

Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.

The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.

After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.

Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.

That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.

Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.

He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.

Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.

San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.

A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.

He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.

It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.

The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.

It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.

If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.

Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.

Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Notes: Chapman, Manoah, Tiedemann, Rodriguez

By | at

Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman signed with the Giants yesterday, scuttling any chances of a possible return to Toronto.  The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Chapman and the Jays could perhaps reach some sort of deal, especially since we just saw Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) re-sign with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.

The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency.  Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years.  Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons.  Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign.  Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.

However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop.  The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason.  He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation).  While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.

From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point.  If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage.  RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.

It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag.  Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.

Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session.  An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time.  According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”

While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster.  After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings.  Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.

Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot.  Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino.  Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract.  Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.

Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work.  The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider.  “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated.  But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.

Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman

By | at

The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.

Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.

The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.

Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.

A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.

While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.

The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.

Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.

Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.

Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.

The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.

What Does Matt Chapman’s Market Look Like After The Cody Bellinger Deal?

By | at

For weeks now, the baseball world’s spotlight has been pointed at the “Boras Four.” Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are all represented by the Boras Corporation and each one lingered in free agency until late February as a staring contest seemed to be taking place between the agency and interested clubs.

The first blink finally came over the weekend, with Bellinger agreeing to return to the Cubs on a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Bellinger is guaranteed $80MM over three years but can walk away after each of the first two seasons, collecting salaries of $30MM in each of those two campaigns.

Now the attention will turn to the other three, and it’s possible there are domino effects of the Bellinger deal, particularly for Chapman. The Cubs were a speculative fit for starting pitchers this winter, but they signed Shota Imanaga and were never firmly connected to either Snell or Montgomery.

But for Chapman, the Cubs were one of four clubs to have been reportedly involved in his market. Adding Bellinger to the club doesn’t eliminate the roster fit with Chapman, as their third base mix is still fairly unsettled. It seems like some combination of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal will be vying for playing time at the hot corner. Morel has just 180 2/3 big league innings at the position with poor grades from defensive metrics. It’s a fairly small sample, but the Cubs haven’t been confident enough in his abilities there to let him expand it. His potent bat also comes with concerns, including a 31.6% strikeout rate thus far in his career. Wisdom’s profile is somewhat comparable while Madrigal is the inverse, providing solid glovework and avoiding strikeouts but with almost no power to speak of.

There would be an argument to the Cubs adding Chapman to solidify that position. The designated hitter spot is open, which would still give Morel a path to regular at-bats while serving as a utility player, moving to various positions to give others an occasional day off. Wisdom and Madrigal could be useful role players off the bench.

However, the Cubs may be done making impact signings. After the Bellinger deal, Roster Resource pegs their competitive balance tax number just above $234MM. That puts just them barely under this year’s $237MM base threshold. They have paid the tax in the past, but not since 2019. They were technically over the line in 2020 but the taxes were waived in the pandemic-shortened season.

If the Cubs wanted to, they could get back over the line again, but they might to prefer to stay where they are for now. They could use the first half of the season to assess Morel’s abilities at the position and then make a deadline trade if they decide an upgrade over him, Madrigal and/or Wisdom is warranted.

What also might be an issue is that Chapman may be less inclined to take a short-term deal like the one Bellinger signed. While Bellinger in 28 years old, Chapman is a couple of months away from his 31st birthday. Returning to the open market a year from now would have some appeal, since he’s currently saddled with a qualifying offer. Players can only receive one QO in their careers, and that wouldn’t be a concern next winter. He could also perhaps stay healthy and put together a better offensive platform, after he was seemingly held back by a finger injury in 2023. But his primary selling point is his defense, and the appeal of that glovework to clubs will likely only go down as he pushes further into his 30s. If clubs are wary of making a long-term commitment to Chapman at the moment, that’d only be truer next offseason, barring a massive resurgence at the plate.

It’s possible Chapman is looking to bank as much money as possible right now, which might not make the Cubs the perfect fit in the long term. Two of their best prospects are infielders in Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Shaw was just drafted last summer but was in Double-A by the end of the year and may not be too far from the majors. Triantos also reached Double-A last year and then seemed to have a breakout in the Arizona Fall League. Both of them have played second base, third base and shortstop in the minors, but the Cubs are fairly set up the middle. Dansby Swanson is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and is signed through 2029. Nico Hoerner is excellent at the keystone, and his contract runs through 2026.

With Shaw and Triantos on the way, Morel a plausible solution at third base in the short term and the club’s CBT number right up against the line, the Cubs may not want to make a big investment in Chapman. Perhaps that would change if Chapman is open to a short-term deal but, as mentioned, there are reasons why he may not be as amenable to that structure as Bellinger was.

Besides the Cubs, the three other clubs that have been connected to Chapman in rumors are the Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners. The Jays employed Chapman last year and have reportedly been interested in bringing him back, though the rumors connected to the two sides have largely dried up since November. In the interim, the Jays have added infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the roster.

The signings of those two players shouldn’t close the door to a Chapman reunion, as Turner could fill the role served by Brandon Belt last year, serving primarily as a DH while donning a glove from time to time. Kiner-Falefa could replace Whit Merrifield, who split his time between second base and the outfield for the Jays last year.

That means Chapman could still retake his position from last year while leaving the Jays in essentially the same spot as 2023, but they also have an army of young infielders. Between Turner, Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Ernie Clement, they may feel they have enough bodies to cover both second and third base. They also brought in veteran Eduardo Escobar on a minor league deal.

Beyond the roster fit, there’s also the financial question. The club opened last season with a franchise-high payroll of $210MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already way beyond that for this year, with Roster Resource putting them at $236MM. They also have a CBT figure of $249MM, already $12MM over the base threshold. Signing Chapman to a significant deal would mean pushing beyond the second line of $257MM. General manager Ross Atkins recently suggested that adding anything to the books would also require subtraction, implying they are at their limit.

The Giants don’t strictly need a third baseman, as they have J.D. Davis at the hot corner. However, upgrading the defense has been a concern for that club after some recent struggles. Their team-wide -15 Defensive Runs Saved last year had them 23rd in the league. Chapman has a tally of 92 DRS in his career, including 12 in 2023. Davis, meanwhile, was at -11 last year. His Outs Above Average tally was much nicer at +5, but even OAA considers him subpar in his career.

Chapman would give the club a nice defensive boost to the left side of the infield, which may be extra important if they plan to give rookie Marco Luciano an audition at shortstop. It’s also been speculated that Chapman’s connections to manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might play a role, as both of them were with the Athletics when Chapman was drafted by that club.

But there are also reasons why Chapman may not end up in San Francisco. Zaidi recently threw some cold water on the possibility of a notable addition. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s off the table, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts made some similar comments not long before they agreed with Bellinger. But the Giants are also relatively close to the CBT line, with Roster Resource putting them at $213MM. They have paid the tax in the past but not since 2017.

Perhaps the market for the top free agents has been depressed enough that they can sign one of the remaining Boras guys while staying under the line. That’s especially true of Chapman, if signing him led to a trade of Davis and some or all of his $6.9MM salary. But even if there’s powder dry for another move, it’s arguable that it would make more sense for them to go after Snell or Montgomery, both of whom they have had reported interest in. Their rotation has little certainly beyond Logan Webb, as both Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will be starting the year on the injured list. Webb will be backed up by Jordan Hicks, who is unproven as a starter, as well as inexperienced youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn.

As for the Mariners, they are currently slated to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Both of them are coming off poor seasons, with Rojas finishing with a wRC+ of 78 and Urias at 83. Even though Chapman struggled a bit last year, his wRC+ still finished at 110. He’s also a better defender than either of them and would give the club a clear upgrade.

Despite the roster fit, general manager Justin Hollander recently said the club’s upcoming additions would likely be more marginal in nature. The M’s had an Opening Day payroll of $137MM last year, per Cot’s, and Roster Resource puts them at $135MM going into this year. They’ve been as high as $158MM in the past but it’s been reported that their TV revenue uncertainty may prevent them from pushing far beyond last year’s figure.

There are other clubs that could make for speculative fits but they haven’t yet been meaningfully connected to Chapman in his nearly four months on the open market. The Angels could sign him and bump Anthony Rendon into a DH role, but their rotation also needs upgrading and owner Arte Moreno recently said the club will have a lower payroll this year. The Mets have an uncertain third base mix but seem willing to let Brett Baty and Mark Vientos battle for time there, and they are facing a 110% tax bill on any further spending at this point. The Yankees could bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role but are also facing a 110% tax bill on further spending. The Phillies could sign Chapman and move Alec Bohm to the bench but there hasn’t been any indication they are thinking of doing so. They are also looking at sizeable taxes and are only $16MM away from the third CBT tier, the crossing of which would cause their top 2025 draft pick to be pushed back 10 spots. The Brewers could make sense but they also may want to let Joey Ortiz have a shot at third base after acquiring him in the Corbin Burnes trade and don’t usually make huge free agent splashes anyway. Young outfielder Sal Frelick will also be getting looks in the infield this spring.

A couple of months ago, MLBTR ran a poll looking at Chapman’s market. The Cubs were the third most popular choice, getting 19.65% of the votes. Presumably, less readers will see the fit after the Bellinger signing, but let’s find out. Where do you think he’ll end up?

That post also featured a poll about Chapman’s earning power. At that point, almost 60% of respondents still felt Chapman could get over $100MM. That percentage will also likely be lower as he remains unsigned with the month of March just over the horizon, but let’s see. Have your say in the polls below!

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

By | at

Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

 

 

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top