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Twins Place Max Kepler On 10-Day Injured List

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The Twins have placed outfielder Max Kepler on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to April 5), with outfielder Matt Wallner called up from Triple-A to take Kepler’s spot on the active roster.  Kepler is suffering from right patellar tendinitis, and hasn’t played in any of Minnesota’s last three games after being forced out of Monday’s contest while running the bases.

It’s a disappointing setback for Kepler, especially after a big Spring Training raised some expectations that a nice season could be on the horizon.  Kepler hit only .219/.312/.382 over 936 plate appearances (96 wRC+) in 2021-22, but with the new rules limiting defensive shifts, there was a sense that Kepler’s extreme pull-hitting tendencies might result in more batted balls becoming hits rather than outs.  Obviously there’s still plenty of time left in the 2023 season for Kepler to produce, but he’ll first have to get his knee back to full health.

There is some added incentive for Kepler since 2023 is the last guaranteed season of the five-year, $35MM extension he signed with Minnesota prior to the 2019 season.  Kepler is earning $8.5MM this season and the Twins hold a $1MM buyout of a $10MM club option on the outfielder’s services for 2024.  Since the Twins discussed Kepler in trade talks this offseason and the team has a number of young outfielders on the way up, it might take a real offensive breakout for Kepler to keep himself in the Twins’ plans going forward.

Wallner is one of those other outfielders looking for a shot at the MLB level, and the 25-year-old made his big league debut with 18 games for Minnesota last season.  The 39th overall pick of the 2019 draft, Wallner is something of a classic three-true-outcomes slugger, with lots of power (51 homers, .511 slugging percentage), strikeouts (30.32 K%), and free passes (12.75% walk rate) over his 1184 career PA in the minors.

Heading into Spring Training with an apparent surplus of outfield talent, the Twins now have Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, and Gilberto Celestino all on the IL, and Byron Buxton has been limited to DH duty while the club has been easing him back into action after knee surgery.  Joey Gallo also left yesterday’s game due to soreness in his right side, though manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Gallo is just day-to-day, as “[MRI] results were something we were hoping for.”  Michael A. Taylor will remain the starting center fielder with Trevor Larnach in everyday duty in one of the other corner spots, and the Twins will now turn to Wallner, Willie Castro, or Nick Gordon to fill in for Kepler.

Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

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The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

Twins Make Several Roster Moves

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The Twins have announced a series of roster moves, with outfielder Max Kepler going on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 14, with a right wrist sprain. Fellow outfielder Matt Wallner has been selected to the club’s roster. To create space on the 40-man, right-hander Drew Strotman has been designated for assignment. Additionally, Louie Varland has been recalled to serve as the “29th man” for today’s doubleheader.

Kepler’s trip to the IL, his second of the year, will add to a very frustrating pile of injuries for the Twins this year. Kepler joins eight other position players who are currently on the shelf, in addition to eight pitchers, giving them a total of 17 players currently on the IL. The Twins spent months atop the AL Central division standings but have seen these mounting injuries drag them down to five games back of the Guardians, with the White Sox in between.

Kepler’s had a bit of a down year but will surely still be missed by the club. His batting line of .227/.318/.348 amounts to a 95 wRC+, or 5% below league average, but he’s still produced 2.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs due to his strong work in right field. Since the move is retroactive, Kepler can return in a week. However, with just over two weeks left on the schedule, there will be a narrow window for Kepler to work with.

Wallner, 24, was selected 39th overall by the Twins in the 2019 draft, climbing his way up the minor league ladder since then. This year, he’s split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, getting into 128 games between the two. In that time, he’s hit 27 home runs and has slashed .277/.412/.541, 144 wRC+. He’s walked in an impressive 17% of his plate appearances but also struck out in 29.8% of them. He’s been in the back half of Baseball America’s top 30 Minnesota prospects for the past few years but jumped up to #8 on their most recent iteration, thanks to his strong season here in 2022. FanGraphs views him similarly, putting him in the #10 slot. Both reports compliment his tremendous power but raise concerns about the whiffs. He’ll try his hand at major league pitching, beginning by starting in today’s game.

Strotman, 26, was drafted by the Rays but came over to the Twins in the Nelson Cruz deal last year. Though he was largely a starting pitcher in his first few professional seasons, he struggled enough after the trade that Minnesota tried moving him to the bullpen this year. Unfortunately, Strotman hasn’t taken to the switch so far, as he’s produced a 6.44 ERA in 50 1/3 Triple-A innings this season. That’s come with a strong 51.1% ground ball rate and 24.2% strikeout rate, but a dismal 13.8% walk rate. The control has been a nagging issue for Strotman, who’s posted double-digit walk rates in all of his recent stops.

Despite those command issues, Strotman has some promising traits and can still be optioned for the remainder of this year and one more season. Teams searching for pitching depth could take him on as a project and try to improve that control. With the trade deadline passed, the Twins will have to put Strotman on waivers in the coming days.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Twins Sign Supplemental First-Rounder Matt Wallner

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The Twins have signed supplemental first-round pick Matt Wallner, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets, adding the outfielder will receive $1.8MM. That checks in below slot, as Wallner’s selection (No. 39) came with a $1,906,800 value.

The Twins finally got their man in Wallner, a Minnesota native whom they first selected in the 32nd round of the 2016 draft. Wallner, then the state’s Mr. Baseball, chose not to sign. He instead elected to attend Southern Mississippi, where he wound up significantly boosting his stock.

This time, Minnesota grabbed Wallner higher than where most draft pundits ranked him. The 21-year-old didn’t make the top 50 of ESPN’s Keith Law entering the draft, while FanGraphs placed Wallner at No. 44, Baseball America had him 49th and MLB.com put him 60th. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs note Wallner has “huge power” and suggest he profiles as a right fielder. Callis, meanwhile, points out Wallner also “intrigues” as a right-handed pitcher who can throw up to 97 mph.

With Wallner under wraps, the Twins have now locked up their first three draft choices. They previously signed 13th overall pick Keoni Cavaco for $4.05MM and 54th selection Matt Canterino for $1.10MM. The club went into this year’s draft with just under $9.91MM to spend on its picks.

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