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Winter Meetings Preview: The Dodgers’ Infield

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have unsurprisingly been asked about the availability of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year for 2019. Thus far, understandably, suitors have been turned away, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Granted, this isn’t shocking news in and of itself, but it is telling of the Dodgers’ mindset on the eve of the winter meetings.

Lux, 22, is coming off a monster season that saw him hulk out for a .347/.421/.607 line in 113 games across Double-A and Triple-A (which included a monstrous-even-for-the-PCL .719 SLG and 188 wRC+ in 49 games in Triple-A). He didn’t disappoint in a cup of coffee with the big league club, holding his own at .240/.305/.400 in 23 games of uneven playing time. He proved capable enough to make the playoff roster and earn the start in games 2 and 4 in the NLDS versus the Nationals.

It’s not surprising that the Dodgers would make a point to hang onto the young star, but doing so doesn’t exactly jibe with their rumored interest in free agent Anthony Rendon. Justin Turner has made clear his openness to moving around the diamond, and while it’s certainly nice to be reminded that chivalry is not yet dead, it’s not obvious where Turner would move if the Dodgers are indeed intent on making Lux a part of their core moving forward.

A Corey Seager trade could open a spot with Lux taking over at short, Max Muncy taking full-time duties at second and Turner moving to first. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and NL MVP Cody Bellinger are capable of filling in around the infield as needed. But as good as Rendon is, Seager himself was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019, and it would seem that the Seager/Lux/Muncy/Bellinger/Taylor/Hernandez/Turner septet already provides the perfect amount of wholesale injury coverage and star power. Swapping in Rendon for Seager cuts their shortstop options by one, and while they’d still probably be two injuries away from any real panic, it’s still a little hard to fathom why swapping in Rendon and his presumably monstrous contract makes sense – unless the goal is simply to keep the development train moving by restocking the lower levels via trade.

They could certainly sign Rendon – or Josh Donaldson, for that matter – and shop one of their other infielders, but there’s not a natural fit on that front either. Turner and Muncy have been central figures to the culture and success of the Dodgers in recent seasons, and it’s frankly jarring to imagine either one suiting up elsewhere. Moving Taylor or Hernandez neither frees up at-bats nor brings back a significant prospect haul.

The logical conclusion is that the Dodgers’ interest in Rendon is probably more smoke than fire. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has made a point of avoiding lavish and reactionary spending, and a Rendon signing would appear to qualify as both. Luxury tax estimates (per Roster Resource) peg the Dodgers at around $176MM for the upcoming season, which would make it difficult to fit Rendon under the tax line. Their longer-term financial picture is more flexible, however, with only ~$93MM on the books for 2021 and ~$33MM the year after.

The Dodgers did suffer a particularly tough playoff defeat in 2019, and after seven years of making the playoffs and coming home without a ring, it’s fair to wonder if the disciplined roster building that’s become the brand of these Los Angeles Dodgers might finally break under the strain of those playoff defeats. Andrew Friedman is also one of the more creative thinkers in the game and if there’s a way to make this work, he’s sure to find it. But it’s also not hard to see why they’d keep on keeping on with business as usual.

Dodgers Notes: Kelly, Muncy, Hill

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Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly has recently regained the form he exhibited in last season’s postseason, as his 2.51 ERA in 32.1 innings since June 1st is exactly what L.A. brass had in mind when the club inked him to a three-year/$25MM deal this past winter. Unfortunately, Kelly’s recent performance has been maintained despite nagging lower-body issues, with manager Dave Roberts telling MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick today that said issues will limit Kelly’s usage leading into the playoffs (link). The Dodgers wrapped up the NL West over a week ago, so it stands to reason that Roberts would currently opt for kid gloves in handling his banged-up players.

A few other L.A. notes courtesy of Ken Gurnick today…

  • Utilityman Max Muncy suffered a quad injury in Friday night’s 12-5 victory over Colorado on Friday, but Roberts defines him as “playable” for tonight’s game, with an expected return to the starting lineup slated for Sunday (link). It was only days ago that the 29-year-old Muncy returned from a fractured wrist, so it’s imperative that the club gets him right for October. After exploding into public consciousness in 2018 with a ridiculous .263/.391/.582 campaign (162 wRC+), Muncy has proven to be far from a one-year wonder in 2019. His .248/.368/.510 line through 562 at-bats has been good enough for a 131 wRC+ on the year.
  • It’s been a yo-yo season for starter Rich Hill, as the lanky 39-year-old has been off-and-on the IL with dizzying frequency in 2019. When healthy, Hill has been characteristically effective–as evidenced by a 2.68 ERA/4.30 FIP through 11 starts–but the lefty has been sidelined since Sept 12 with a strained left MCL. That injury was sustained in his first start back after an elbow issue precluded him from appearing in three month’s worth of games. Now, however, comes word that Hill is again ready to retake the mound, as Gurnick hears that Hill will start Tuesday’s tilt at San Diego (link). Despite the injury issues, we heard early in the year that the hurler was interested in continuing his career beyond 2019–his final season under contract with Los Angeles.

 

Dodgers Activate Max Muncy

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The Dodgers announced that they have activated infielder Max Muncy from the injured list. He had been sidelined with a fractured wrist.

Fortunately, the injury ended up requiring only a brief absence. While the Dodgers will likely take it slow with the 29-year-old slugger upon his return, there’s obviously no concern that he’s at risk of further injury.

The Los Angeles organization will spend the next two weeks firming up its postseason roster plans and getting the right amount of reps to the right players. Muncy hasn’t been sidelined for long, but he’ll obviously want to get plenty of looks at big-league pitching to prepare for what is hoped to be a deep playoff run.

Muncy hasn’t been quite as awesome this year as he was in his stunning 2018 breakout campaign, but he has remained a top-end offensive player. Through 534 plate appearances, Muncy carries a .253/.375/.525 batting line with 33 home runs.

Dodgers Notes: Muncy, Alexander, Turner, Lux

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Let’s check in on the best team in the National League…

  • Expectations are that the Dodgers will activate infielder Max Muncy from the injured list Friday, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times relays. Muncy hasn’t played since he suffered a fractured right wrist Aug. 28, but it obviously wasn’t an overly serious injury. The 29-year-old is the Dodgers’ go-to option at second base, though his injury helped open the door for the promotion of highly touted prospect Gavin Lux, who has performed well over a small sample of plate appearances thus far. But Muncy’s among the Dodgers’ best hitters, evidenced by his .253/.375/.525 line with 33 home runs in 534 PA, and they’ll be happy to welcome him back with a couple weeks left before the playoffs begin.
  • Left-handed reliever Scott Alexander underwent surgery to address a nerve issue in his pitching hand, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. The 30-year-old, who hasn’t pitched since the first week of June, wasn’t going to return this season anyway. It’s unclear, though, how long it will take him to recover from this procedure. Alexander has thrown just 17 1/3 innings this year on account of forearm issues. While Alexander was among the game’s foremost southpaw relievers as recently as 2017, when he was with the Royals, his two years with the Dodgers have been somewhat disappointing. He owns a 3.67 ERA/3.88 FIP with 7.02 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9 across 83 1/3 innings as a Dodger, though he has posted an eye-popping 68.5 percent groundball rate in that span.
  • More from Plunkett, who reports that third baseman Justin Turner is day-to-day with a mild ankle sprain. That’s a relief for Los Angeles, which has gone without Turner’s services since last Saturday. The 34-year-old went without a hit in two at-bats then, but has otherwise enjoyed yet another outstanding season. Turner’s a .291/.370/.514 hitter with 27 home runs and 3.4 fWAR in 538 trips to the plate.
  • Dodgers director of amateur scouting Billy Gasparino recently reflected on the drafting of Lux in a chat with Kyle Glaser of Baseball America. Although Lux just won Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year honors, it was seen as something of a reach when the Dodgers chose the former Wisconsin high schooler 20th overall in the 2016 draft. He impressed Dodgers scouts throughout that year, though, and when the draft rolled around, they took him over an unidentified college pitcher who was also high on their board. “His overall talent level and character assessments were so high, we just felt like, a little bit of liking him just a little bit more than the college pitcher and some of just draft strategy of taking the bat there and getting pitching later,” Gasparino said. The 21-year-old Lux has since surpassed the organization’s expectations, according to Gasparino.

NL West Injury Notes: Muncy, Ray, Padres, Dickerson

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Max Muncy’s wrist fracture wasn’t thought to be an overly serious injury, and the Dodgers infielder is now aiming to be back on the field on Friday when Los Angeles begins a series against the Mets.  As Muncy told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter links) and other reporters, he felt “better than I expected” after taking regular swings in the batting cage today.  Needless to say, the Dodgers will be careful with their slugger’s progress, as there’s no urgency to get Muncy back in immediate fashion since the team is running away with the NL West.  Still, it’s an excellent sign that Muncy has seemingly avoided what initially looked like a season-threatening injury.

More from around the division…

  • A blister issue forced Robbie Ray to leave during the fifth inning of the Diamondbacks’ win over the Reds on Friday, though he told media (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that the removal was somewhat precautionary, as the blister hadn’t actually formed.  As a result, Ray feels he’ll be able to make his next scheduled start.  Ray didn’t want to leave the game but “at that point I’ve got to look at the bigger picture.  It’s tough, but you understand it’s the right thing to do.”  With the red-hot D’Backs on a run of 11 wins in their last 12 games, Ray (now the rotation’s veteran stalwart in the wake of the Zack Greinke trade) certainly wants to remain able to contribute to the team’s push for a wild card berth.
  • Franchy Cordero has suffered another setback while rehabbing a quad injury, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Padres manager Andy Green told Sanders and other media members that Cordero’s bothersome left leg “just doesn’t feel as explosive as the other leg,” and that Cordero has “been slowed down to hopefully ramp him up again in a couple days, but I think we know where the clock is on this season. It’s ticking. I don’t know if he or isn’t going to get back.”  Elbow and quad problems have limited Cordero to only nine games in 2019, and since Green said that the club’s priority is to get Cordero healthy for the offseason, the outfielder likely won’t be brought back for a few token appearances if there’s any hint he might not be 100 percent.
  • In more promising Padres health news, Green is hopeful that both Garrett Richards and Jacob Nix will be able to get onto a Major League mound before the 2019 campaign is out.  Richards is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, while Nix has been working through a small UCL tear in an attempt to avoid his own TJ procedure.
  • Alex Dickerson has missed the Giants’ last four games due to a right oblique injury, and the outfielder will miss more time after receiving a cortisone shot, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).  There isn’t yet indication that Dickerson could miss the season’s final few weeks, though this is the second time in Dickerson’s brief San Francisco tenure that he has been slowed by a right oblique injury — he spent two weeks on the IL in August due to a strain.  When Dickerson has been able to play, he has something of a revelation, hitting .308/.374/.579 with six homers over 147 plate appearances in a Giants uniform.  This has put him into the mix for regular outfield duty in 2020, though as Bochy noted, the club would like to get some more evaluation time on Dickerson before the season is out.

Dodgers Health Updates: Verdugo, Muncy, Hill, May

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With the NL West sewn up, the Dodgers have two primary goals down the stretch: secure home-field advantage throughout the postseason and get to full health. Here are the latest updates from manager Dave Roberts on a few key players, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to cover on Twitter:

  • Back soreness has halted the rehab work of outfielder Alex Verdugo. He had seemingly been nearing a return from an oblique injury. Now, per Roberts, Verdugo may head back to the club’s Arizona facility to receive further treatment. Verdugo had emerged as an important part of the Los Angeles outfield mix, even commanding time against left-handed pitching. On the year, he owns a strong .294/.342/.475 batting line with a dozen long balls. Verdugo has also graded as a plus defender and is capable of lining up anywhere in the outfield. It’s completely unclear at this point what kind of timeline to anticipate for the new malady.
  • In more promising news, infielder Max Muncy is participating in baseball activities. He has already taken groundballs and will soon resume swinging. That represents fast progress for a player who recently suffered a fractured wrist. The club’s optimism regarding the severity of the injury has thus far been justified. Needless to say, the Dodgers will be focused on ensuring Muncy’s readiness for the postseason. The 29-year-old is carrying a big .253/.375/.525 batting line on the year. His left-handed bat is all the more important given Verdugo’s uncertainty.
  • Southpaw Rich Hill is prepared to take the bump against live batters later this week, which could set the stage for a return as soon as next week. The plan remains for Hill to come back as a reliever. It seems the flexor tendon strain that sidelined the veteran hurler has recovered fully, though it remains to be seen what sort of form he’ll show upon his return. Hill almost certainly won’t be at full strength in the postseason, but he will have a few weeks to build up innings. He’ll surely play an interesting role in the L.A. playoff effort, with his showing also destined to impact his forthcoming free agency. The 39-year-old was outstanding (2.55 ERA in 53 innings) before going down with the injury.
  • As for prized young hurler Dustin May, it seems awfully promising that he was able to throw a simulated inning today. The team still isn’t sure what will come next for the right-hander, who was drilled by a comebacker over the weekend but seems to have avoided serious injury. As in the above cases, the Dodgers will proceed with caution — all the more so given that the 21-year-old is considered a major future asset.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On IL With Fractured Wrist

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The Dodgers have seemingly avoided a worst-case scenario with injured infielder Max Muncy, but he’ll still hit the 10-day IL, the team announced Friday. The title contenders recalled infielder/outfielder Kristopher Negron from Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move.

Muncy left the Dodgers’ win over the Padres on Wednesday after taking a fastball off the right wrist from the Friars’ Matt Strahm. Although Dodgers manager Dave Roberts initially indicated Muncy had avoided a break, that isn’t the case. He did indeed suffer a fracture, according to the club. However, it’s not as dire as it sounds – Muncy called it “average” news, and added he could return within one or two weeks, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

The Dodgers are laden with depth (star prospect Gavin Lux may be among second base possibilities if Muncy can’t come back quickly), but they obviously don’t want to go without Muncy for long as the playoffs near. The 2018 breakout performer has continued to stand out this year with a .253/.375/.525 line and 33 home runs across 534 plate appearances. Along with giving the Dodgers yet another formidable bat, Muncy has been one of many prominent multi-position options for the club. The 29-year-old has started at second base 59 times, first on 35 occasions and third for 24 games.

While the Dodgers can only hope Muncy will be back in short order, infielder David Freese and righties Dylan Floro and Ross Stripling (previously reported) are all set to come off the IL when rosters expand Sunday, per Castillo. Freese will slot back into the Dodgers’ lineup on a regular basis, Roberts announced, after sitting out more than a month with a left hamstring strain. The 36-year-old first baseman has missed time on two occasions this season with the same injury, but he has still enjoyed a marvelous campaign with the bat. On a per-PA basis, few major leaguers have been more effective than Freese, owner of a .300/.399/.579 line (155 wRC+) with nine homers in 163 trips.

Statistically, Floro has been among the Dodgers’ most reliable relievers in what has been a rickety bullpen in 2019. That’s not to say Floro has been lights-out, though – the team optioned him to the minors earlier this month, and he posted a 3.89 ERA/3.78 FIP with 7.3 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 52.3 percent groundball rate before hitting the shelf Aug. 20 with a left intercostal strain. But he and Stripling still look as though they’ll help bolster the Dodgers’ staff to some degree with the postseason approaching.

Max Muncy To Miss Time With Wrist Injury

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FRIDAY: X-rays didn’t reveal a fracture, Roberts announced, though Muncy still has to undergo more tests (via Castillo).

THURSDAY: Dodgers slugger Max Muncy made an early exit from Wednesday’s 6-4 win over the Padres, as Muncy left the game after being hit in the right wrist by a Matt Strahm fastball during a fifth-inning plate appearance.  Muncy is undergoing x-rays today to determine the extent of the injury, though manager Dave Roberts told the Los Angeles Times’ Jorge Castillo (Twitter links) that even if Muncy has avoided a fracture or a break, the infielder will be sidelined “until at least early next week” until he recovers from what is currently being called a right wrist contusion.

A 10-day injured list stint could be in the offing for Muncy, as if he’s in line to miss at least four or five days at minimum, the Dodgers could choose to simply put him on the IL to give him more time to fully recover.  Then again, with rosters expanding on Sunday, an IL placement might not be necessary since Los Angeles will have up to 15 extra players on hand.

These looming September call-ups bring an added dimension to Muncy’s injury, as if he faces a longer-term absence, Roberts said the Dodgers “will be more aggressive” in determining their minor league promotions.  The skipper didn’t provide any further details when asked the obvious follow-up of whether this could result in star prospect Gavin Lux receiving his first taste of MLB action.

Lux has been obliterating Triple-A pitching, though the Dodgers have reportedly been on the fence about promoting Lux given their depth of second base options.  Muncy has received the large bulk of playing time at second base (Lux’s intended position) in recent months, though Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor are both back from the IL and utilityman Jedd Gyorko is also on hand.  Since Hernandez and Taylor are both regularly required in the outfield, however, Lux could have a clearer path to regular second base time without Muncy in the mix.

After signing a minor league contract with the Dodgers in April 2017, Muncy came out of nowhere to hit 35 homers with a .973 OPS over 481 plate appearances for L.A. last season.  While Muncy hasn’t quite been as spectacular in 2019 as he was in 2018, his follow-up campaign has been more than solid — .253/.375/.525 with 33 home runs over 534 PA.  A broken or fractured wrist would require at least a month to heal, thus putting Muncy’s availability for the postseason in serious question and creating a big hole in the Dodgers’ powerful lineup.

Max Muncy: Not A Fluke

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Max Muncy rose from obscurity last year to become one of the majors’ most improbable success stories. The Athletics jettisoned Muncy in April 2017, a half-decade after they used a fifth-round draft pick on him. The Dodgers then scooped up Muncy on a minor league contract that has turned into one of the greatest low-risk deals in recent memory.

Muncy didn’t take a single at-bat with the Dodgers in his first year with the franchise, instead thriving for the entire season at the Triple-A level, but he broke out as a premier major leaguer in 2018. Muncy slashed a remarkable .263/.391/.582 (162 wRC+) with 35 home runs in just 481 plate appearances, all while seeing significant action at first and third base. The all-around package was worth an astounding 5.2 fWAR – the same amount Braves superstar Freddie Freeman totaled in 226 more trips to the plate.

Muncy was a good-not-great A’s prospect who wasn’t a remotely successful big leaguer prior to last season. As such, questions abounded over what he’d do for an encore this season after his eye-opening breakout in 2018. Three-plus months into the season, Muncy hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, but that’s a compliment to what he accomplished then – not an indictment on his current production. Having just earned the first All-Star nod of his career, Muncy is emphatically showing he’s not a fluke.

The 28-year-old has already accounted for 3.0 fWAR, good for a 20th-place tie among position players, through 359 trips to the plate. Once again, his offensive output has been fantastic, as the lefty’s slashing .265/.365/.529 (134 wRC+) with 22 homers. Muncy’s power has dropped in comparison to last year – his ISO has fallen from .319 to .265, and his launch angle has sunk from 17.8 degrees to 12.6 – though he has still been one of the game’s most imposing threats at the plate. Statcast backs up Muncy’s bottom-line production, evidenced in part by a .379 expected weighted on-base average that actually outdoes his .377 wOBA. Muncy’s xwOBA ranks in the league’s 90th percentile, while his hard-hit percentage (61st), expected batting average (73rd) and expected slugging percentage (83rd) are also comfortably above average.

Muncy, however, hasn’t achieved his resounding success the same way he did last year. A more aggressive approach (his swing rate’s up 5 percent since 2018) has helped lead to more swings and misses and fewer walks, yet Muncy is making more contact and striking out less. Unlike last season, Muncy’s doing more of his damage against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Once again, though, he has had little trouble with either, as shown by his 143 wRC+ versus southpaws and a 131 mark against righties.

For the second straight year, Muncy’s proving capable of helping his loaded team in multiple ways. The Dodgers, unafraid to heavily deploy players at two or more positions, have given Muncy between 23 and 46 appearances at first, second and third this year. He has risen to the challenge by offering plus defense at each position, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Adding up his work at all three spots, Muncy has accounted for 10 DRS and a 2.4 UZR.

With Muncy’s help last year, the Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West crown and their second consecutive pennant. With Muncy’s help this year, they’re shoo-ins to take home their seventh division championship in a row. More importantly, he may aid in the club’s first World Series title since 1988. Not bad for a player who’s only two years removed from joining the Dodgers off the scrapheap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers, Red Sox Set World Series Rosters

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With the World Series set to kick off tonight, both teams have announced changes to their 25-man rosters.

For the Dodgers, left-handed reliever Scott Alexander replaces Caleb Ferguson, the team announced. Alexander will be LA’s third left-handed option out of the pen, along with 22-year-old Julio Urias and regular season starter Alex Wood. The Dodgers have shuffled between Urias, Ferguson and Alexander as the third left-hander in the pen this postseason, with each player making the roster for two of the three playoff rounds. 

Of the three, the 21-year-old Ferguson is the least seasoned, whereas Alexander profiles most-closely to a left-handed specialist – though none have drastic platoon splits. Still, it’s likely Alexander spent the weekend going over the scouting reports of Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley Jr. 

For the Red Sox, they’ve also made a change to their bullpen. The team announced the addition of lefty Drew Pomeranz over right-handed options Brandon Workman or Steven Wright. It’s a bit of a surprising move given Pomeranz hasn’t pitched since September 30th. Conversely, Wright is recovering from left knee issues, while Workman was shelled in his three October appearances. Workman appeared twice in the ALDS and and once in the ALCS, pitching one third of an inning each time, surrendering a total five earned runs and seven hits in his one total inning of work.

You have to figure the Red Sox believe Pomeranz is closer to his 2017 self (137 ERA+) than his 2018 self (72 ERA+). One glimmer of hope in Pomeranz’s disastrous 2018 campaign: all 12 HRs surrendered this season were vs. right-handed hitters. For his career, lefties have hit .224/.305/.313 against Pomeranz, whereas righties have hit .247/.330/.420. Should Chris Sale or David Price fail to go deep into games, Boston will have the option of deploying Pomeranz as a long-man, or as a lefty specialist to counter Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and/or NLCS MVP Cody Bellinger. 

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