Extension Candidate: Max Scherzer
The Tigers and Max Scherzer agreed to a 2012 salary of $3.75MM yesterday, but the negotiations won’t necessarily end there, since extension season is just beginning. Last year, for example, 24 players signed extensions between the date arbitration numbers were exchanged and the end of April. Just one of those players was a client of the Boras Corporation — Scherzer's agency — but the possibility of an extension exists for the 27-year-old right-hander nevertheless.
Gio Gonzalez and Justin Masterson are two of the first-time arbitration eligible pitchers who most closely resemble Scherzer. Gonzalez (38-32, 3.93 ERA in 535 1/3 innings) Masterson (28-38, 3.92 ERA in 613 2/3 innings) and Scherzer (36-35, 3.92 ERA in 617 innings) all have similar numbers from a career standpoint. However, Scherzer's platform season ERA of 4.43 exceeded the 2011 marks Gonzalez and Masterson posted by more than a run. Gonzalez recently signed a five-year, $42MM extension and Masterson is another candidate for a long-term deal.
Gonzalez and Masterson aren’t the only pitchers who resemble Scherzer. The Tigers right-hander has numbers that resemble the ones John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza and Johnny Cueto had when they became arbitration eligible for the first time. The various contracts those pitchers signed offer insight into Scherzer’s future earning power.
A four-year deal worth slightly more than $30MM could work for both sides, I believe. Recent deals for the pitchers above suggest a deal between Scherzer and the Tigers might look like this: $3.5MM in 2012, $6MM in 2013, $8MM in 2014, $12MM in 2014 and a modest buyout for one or two additional club option seasons. A guaranteed four-year total in the $30MM range would eclipse Cueto’s $27MM deal and while it wouldn’t reach Gonzalez’s $42MM mark, that may not be realistic for a pitcher with Scherzer’s 2011 ERA.
The Tigers would extend their control of Scherzer and cap his earnings by buying out his arbitration seasons and at least one year of free agency. Tigers starters Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister and Jacob Turner are all under team control through 2014 or later and extending Scherzer would keep the group in place for even longer. While there are risks associated with every pitcher extension, the 2006 first rounder has made 30-plus starts in both of the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Scherzer would obtain multiyear security and extend his stay with the 2011 AL Central champs.
Advanced metrics such as xFIP (3.70), FIP (4.14) and SIERA (3.63) suggest Scherzer's 2011 ERA of 4.43 was higher than expected for someone with his peripheral stats. If the statistically-minded hurler is willing to gamble on similar health and improved luck in 2012, his extension prospects might look considerably better a year from now. But if Scherzer is willing to sign before the season and the Tigers are looking to lock him up, a four-year deal in the $30MM range seems fair.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Tuesday
Dozens of arbitration eligible players have agreed to deals with their respective teams today and we've been tracking all of the developments right here. Several teams, including the Rays, Nationals, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves, and perhaps Astros, are known for committing to going to hearings if they get to the point of filing. Keep track of all the madness with MLBTR's arbitration tracker, which shows settlement amounts, filing figures, and midpoints. Today's players to avoid arbitration on deals worth less than $4MM:
- The Cardinals avoided arbitration with pitcher Kyle McClellan, tweets B.J. Rains of FOX Sports Midwest. Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on Twitter) that the one-year deal is worth $2.5MM with incentives based on starts. MLBTR projected a $2.7MM for the Steve Comte client.
- MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (on Twitter) that the Padres and Chase Headley agreed to a one-year deal worth $3.475MM, avoiding arbitration. Earlier this evening, the Padres announced that they avoided arbitration with Luke Gregerson, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Quentin and Will Venable. They also avoided arbitration with lefty reliever Joe Thatcher on a deal worth $700K, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. CAA announced catcher John Baker has signed for $750K. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported that the Padres reached agreements with Hundley, Chase Headley, and Tim Stauffer. Hundley will earn $2MM in 2012, MLB.com's Corey Brock tweets. Dan Hayes of the North County Times tweets the salaries for Volquez ($2.2375MM), Venable ($1.475MM), Gregerson ($1.55MM)
- The Rangers avoided arbitration with Matt Harrison, tweets Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The ACES client gets $2.95MM on a one-year deal. MLBTR had projected a $2.9MM salary.
- The Cubs announced that they have avoided arbitration with Jeff Baker ($1.375MM), Blake DeWitt ($1.1MM), Ian Stewart ($2.237MM) Chris Volstad ($2.655MM), and Randy Wells ($2.705MM). MLB.com's Carrie Muskat tweeted the salary figures.
Quick Hits: Brown, Tigers, Bourn, Mets
Let's take a look at some items as we close in on the 3:00pm (CST) deadline..
- Even though he received a number of calls on him, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. insists that Domonic Brown was never available, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
- Meanwhile, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski says that he never considered trading Rick Porcello or Max Scherzer to the Rockies in a package for Ubaldo Jimenez, writes James Schmehl of MLive.com.
- Several teams, including the Braves and Giants, are interested in the Astros' Michael Bourn, but the outfielder would prefer to stay in Houston, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.
- Even though they're getting hits on several useful chips with expiring contracts, the Mets are likely done trading, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
2006 Draft Throwdown
There is little that is more dismaying than looking back at old draft lists, with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing which players your favorite team missed out on while settling for players who either failed to make much of an impact, or who never even reached the major leagues. Think Reggie Jackson and Steve Chilcott, Robin Yount and David Clyde, Dwight Gooden and Bryan Oelkers. Often, this is driven less by player talent, and more by positional need.
But even more fascinating is to look at some recent draft picks and some of their immediate counterparts, to see how teams fared picking players, one over another, who played the same position. In other words, straight-up scouting choices led to these decisions. Let's take a look at how those worked out in 2006.
- LHP Andrew Miller (Tigers) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): This one is more complicated than it might seem at first. Clearly, Miller, drafted sixth overall, has not been nearly as effective as Kershaw, drafted seventh overall. Miller has a 5.50 ERA in 261 2/3 major league innings, and is currently having trouble throwing strikes in the minor leagues, with an astonishing 30 walks in 28 innings. Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 342 major league innings, and shows signs of being a good deal better than that moving forward. But Miller isn't with the Tigers; Detroit dealt him in the move that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. Still, advantage has to go to Kershaw on this one, and the Dodgers as well.
- RHP Tim Lincecum (Giants) vs. Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks): Is this one about to turn? Obviously, as of this date, Lincecum, drafted tenth, has worked out as well as one could hope any draft pick could, while Scherzer, drafted eleventh, is still a work-in-progress who has already been traded once. But Lincecum has had uncharacteristic struggles with his control lately, even though his season ERA (3.14) and strikeout rate (10.4/9 innings) are not far off of his career marks. And Scherzer is coming off of a 14-strikeout performance, though four walks meant that he did so in just 5 2/3 innings. For now, though, a big edge to Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
- OF Tyler Colvin (Cubs) vs. Travis Snider (Blue Jays): Based on 2010 season line alone, this battle of the lefty-hitting outfielders would have to go to Colvin, drafted thirteenth, over Snider, drafted fourteenth. After all, Colvin has an OPS of .991 in 83 plate appearances this season, while Snider's stands at .806. But overall, it seems clear that the Blue Jays did better here. Snider came out of high school, while Colvin was a collegiate player. Yet Snider posted significantly better offensive numbers than Colvin as each player climbed their respective system ladders- a .916 to .785 edge in minor league OPS. Snider was holding down a regular job at age 22 before he hit the DL, while Colvin is struggling for a regular spot as his 25th birthday approaches. This one is debatable, but the smart money gives Toronto and Snider the edge.
Odds & Ends: Scherzer, Lamb, LaRoche
Saturday night linkage..
- The Tigers announced tonight they've demoted Max Scherzer and Scott Sizemore to Triple A, with Armando Galarraga and Danny Worth getting the call. Both Scherzer and Edwin Jackson have disappointed since changing teams in December's big deal.
- Hank Blalock comes to Tampa Bay determined to be a more well-rounded player, according to MLB.com's Adam Berry and Bill Chastain.
- The Marlins could make a 40-man roster move soon to bring back Mike Lamb, tweets MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Lamb was designated for assignment last week and is currently in Triple A.
- Despite Adam LaRoche's successful 2009 stint in Atlanta (.325/.401/.557 in 57 games), the Braves didn't approach him about returning, writes Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- Alan Schwarz of the New York Times takes an in-depth look at the likely first overall pick in next month's draft, Bryce Harper.
- Nats manager Jim Riggleman says that the club will have to consider making a roster move with reliever Brian Bruney, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via Twitter).
- Mets pitcher Oliver Perez won't accept a demotion to Triple-A if asked, tweets David Lennon of Newsday. Perez has been bumped out of the starting rotation and placed in the bullpen.
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes that Eric Byrnes and Morgan Ensberg are making the most of life-after-baseball.
- Brewers pitching prospect Jeremy Jeffress will have to wait a little bit longer to return to the mound once he is reinstated, writes MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Jeffress, the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft, has tested positive for a "drug of abuse" on three separate occasions.
Detroit’s 2011 Payroll Situation
Once the Tigers traded Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for four pre-arbitration eligible players, the thought was that owner Mike Ilitch was trimming payroll after the recession hit Detroit especially hard. However, he then approved a massive extension for ace Justin Verlander as well as the signing of Johnny Damon, and now his team's Opening Day payroll is expected to be somewhere around $130MM, up from $115MM last year.
Lynn Henning of The Detroit News wrote about the payroll savings GM Dave Dombrowski will enjoy after the season, which are pretty significant. Here's a look at the money the Tigers have coming off the books after the 2010 season…
- Jeremy Bonderman, $12.5MM salary in 2010
- Dontrelle Willis, $12MM
- Nate Robertson, $10MM
- Johnny Damon, $8MM
- Brandon Inge, $6.6MM
- Gerald Laird, $3.95MM
- Bobby Seay, $2.475MM
- Adam Everett, $1.5MM
That's $57.025MM in savings right there, and the team would be wise to avoid letting Magglio Ordonez reach the 540 plate appearances needed for his $15MM option to vest.
Ilitch isn't shy about spending big on the free agent market, and he'll have the money available to add a big bat to complement Miguel Cabrera (Jayson Werth, Aramis Ramirez if he declines his option?) as well as another elite starter to a rotation that already includes Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer (Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee?) after the season. Keep in mind that I was just throwing some names out there off our 2011 free agents list, and that the Tigers have not been linked to any of those players in any rumors we've seen.
The Tigers are already in a position to compete in the AL Central, and once they shed some dead money after the season, they'll have a chance to jump ahead of the pack if they spend wisely.
D’Backs Notes: Kendrick, Byrnes, Reynolds
The Diamondbacks' main additions this offseason have been Adam LaRoche, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Kelly Johnson, Aaron Heilman, and Bob Howry. They also exercised Brandon Webb's option and received Tony Abreu as the player to be named later in the Jon Garland trade. On the flip side, they subtracted Max Scherzer, Doug Davis, Yusmeiro Petit, and Daniel Schlereth from the pitching staff.
MLB.com's Steve Gilbert interviewed D'Backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick, while AZ Snakepit's Jim McLennan talked to GM Josh Byrnes. Hot stove notes:
- Regarding LaRoche, Kendrick said, "There were a couple of other possibilities, and we were going to be able to do one of them."
- Given the losses of Webb and Conor Jackson last year, Kendrick considers them on par with big free agent additions for 2010.
- Kendrick spoke of four or five guys the D'Backs would prefer not to go year-to-year with, third baseman Mark Reynolds among them. Kendrick believes the time for those discussions is before the season begins. Reynolds will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2011, as he just missed the cutoff this time around.
- Byrnes spoke of "a pendulum in the game," where some teams chase a new philosophy to the extent that it creates a market inefficiency.
- Byrnes carefully explained why he traded Scherzer, suggesting Jackson has gotten "to that next level" while Scherzer hasn't. He also explained how that three-way deal came together – 90% was done quickly, and then there was "about a month of starting at each other and seeing if there were another deal, improvements or alternatives out there either club liked."
Blockbuster Reactions
WEDNESDAY, 9:03am: Let's add Nick Piecoro's take from the Arizona Republic. I'm with him – I don't hate it for Arizona as much as most people. – Tim Dierkes
TUESDAY, 8:27pm: Dave Dombrowski and Brian Cashman might not be commenting on today's big trade, but lots of other people sure are:
- Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press says it's a "damn shame" the Tigers had to trade Curtis Granderson.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Tigers had to make the move because they're overpaying a group of underperforming veterans.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo breaks down the minor leaguers in the deal. For those of you wondering about Austin Jackson's defense, Mayo offers the following: "Many feel he has the skills to be an everyday center fielder at the Major League level, with above-average range and a solid arm." But will he have Granderson's knack for the spectacular play?
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says the deal is very good for the Yankees, okay for the Tigers and bad for the D'Backs.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law says he has "no idea" why the D'Backs would make this deal. Law considers the Tigers and Yankees winners.
- Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse says the Tigers are "clear winners" in this deal.
What do you think about the deal?
Granderson To Yanks, Edwin Jackson To D’Backs, Scherzer To Tigers
WEDNESDAY, 2:35pm: This deal is official, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
TUESDAY, 1:24pm: As chronicled here, a three-team blockbuster trade has been agreed upon between the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Tigers. The players:
- The Yankees receive center fielder Curtis Granderson, who turns 29 in March. Granderson is owed $5.5MM in 2010, $8.25MM in '11, and $10MM in '12, with a $13MM club option/$2MM buyout for '13. That's $25.75MM guaranteed over the next three years. Melky Cabrera could now be expendable for the Yankees, and the Cubs are one possible suitor.
- The Diamondbacks receive a pair of starting pitchers: Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Jackson, 26, is under team control for '10 and '11 and is owed an arbitration raise on this year's $2.2MM salary. Kennedy, 25 this month, missed most of the '09 season due to surgery to remove an aneurysm near his shoulder. As far as I can tell he is under team control for another six seasons. This is the second year in a row Jackson has been traded at the Winter Meetings.
- The Tigers receive four players: starter Max Scherzer, relievers Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke, and center fielder Austin Jackson. The Tigers get five years of Scherzer, six of Schlereth, five of Coke, and six of Jackson, potentially 22 years of control in total. Scherzer, 25, and Jackson, 23 in February, are probably considered the prizes of the haul.
Agreement Reached In Yanks, Tigers, D’Backs Blockbuster
12:48pm: Heyman tweets that an agreement has been reached, with only medicals pending. We'll do a fresh post once this trade is official. To reiterate: the Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the D'Backs get Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke.
Sherman notes that the Yankees managed to pull off the Granderson acquisition without giving up Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Mike Dunn.
12:35pm: Olney now says this deal is close. Sherman says medical records are being exchanged on Granderson. In another tweet Sherman says there's no deadline on the deal, but one source says it's "on the goal line." He adds that removing Dunn from the deal was key for the Yanks.
Tyler Kepner of the New York Times says the deal is "very close," and would be Austin Jackson, Coke, Scherzer, and Schlereth to the Tigers, Edwin Jackson and Kennedy to the D'Backs, and Granderson to the Yankees.
12:19pm: Rosenthal says the revised deal has the Tigers getting two players from the Yanks rather than three, with Coke or Dunn out. AOL FanHouse's Ed Price tweets that the D'Backs and Tigers are awaiting signoff from the Yankees, and expect an answer within 40 minutes.
11:51am: Morosi sees progress being made, while MLB.com's Steve Gilbert thinks this thing is close; the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro agrees.
11:24am: More from Olney – the D'Backs are aiming to get Edwin Jackson and Kennedy in the deal. Olney speaks of "growing confidence on at least two of the sides" involved, and his sources have the odds of a deal in the 20-30% range. One Heyman source said 50%.
11:15am: Rosenthal and Morosi note that the Yankees and Tigers are open to making a Granderson deal and leaving the D'Backs out of the discussion. Still, the three-team talks are ongoing and fluid, with the Tigers requiring a "high-ceiling, close-to-the-majors center fielder" as part of the Granderson package. Austin Jackson could be that player.
ESPN's Buster Olney says it's the Tigers that re-ignited the three-way talks, and they've lowered their asking price.
10:33am: Heyman tweets that this deal is "back with a chance." Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News agrees, noting that the Tigers "may be caving" on the price for Granderson. He says the Yanks would likely downgrade one of the pitchers, most likely Dunn. Wouldn't be the Winter Meetings without three-team trade scenarios and the constant back-and-forth.
10:30am: Just to add a little intrigue, ESPN's Buster Olney says "one idea raised" was the Yankees getting both Granderson and Jackson. Regardless, two of the teams involved backed out of this three-team mess.
8:29am: SI's Jon Heyman tweets that this one "looks very unlikely." In his scenario Heyman had Daniel Schlereth, Scherzer, and more going to Detroit. He adds that the Yankees are saying no to the deal, which would've cost them the four prospects named below. Similarly, Morosi now finds the chances of this one to be "not good" because the Yankees balked at the price.
7:35am: Buster Olney adds that the talks progressed to the point where only one team liked the deal; he's not sure whether talks can resume or not.
TUESDAY, 7:00am: Morosi tweets that the deal is still a possibility as of this morning, according to one source.
MONDAY, 11:23pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Tigers were never satisfied with the blockbuster talks.
10:05pm: The D'Backs pushed for a blockbuster three-way deal with the Yankees and Tigers today, only to see one of those two teams veto it, according to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. However, the teams are discussing the following scenario.
The deal would send Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, along with a prospect or two from the D'Backs. Arizona would obtain Edwin Jackson from the Tigers and Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. The Tigers would obtain Max Scherzer from the D'Backs and Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Michael Dunn from the Yanks.
Talks are apparently at an "impasse" now, though the D'Backs continue to push for a trade.