The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018
Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!
This is how it works:
- Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
- Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
- A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
- The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.
A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.
But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.
You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors). Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.
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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart
Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.
Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.
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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.
The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.
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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto‘s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.
Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.
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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.
The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.
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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.
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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart
Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.
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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart
As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.
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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.
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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart
The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.
After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,” he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.
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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart
Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.
While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.
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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart
The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.
Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).
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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.
Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.
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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart
After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.
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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart
Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A. It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.
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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.
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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.
The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.
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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.
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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart
The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.
In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.
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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).
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Power Ranking Leaders By Level
Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays
Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies
High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks
Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox
Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets
Rookie
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres
Prospect Notes: Vlad, 2018 Draftees, Twins, Franco, Pitchers
With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…
- ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
- Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
- Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
- Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.
Twins Notes: Lewis, Santana, Deadline Plans
J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register offers an interesting look at the dynamic between top Twins prospect Royce Lewis and special assistant to baseball operations Torii Hunter. It turns out that Hunter knew Lewis’s father for years, but had no idea his son was a baseball prodigy until after he was picked first overall by the Twins. In fact, neither Hunter nor the younger Lewis knew there was just one degree of separation between them in the form of the elder, William Lewis, who had Hunter’s personal cell phone number for years. Fast forward to now, and Hunter has his own relationship with Royce, the number one overall pick in the 2017 draft. In addition to baseball work, the two spent a week together at Hunter’s home in Dallas, where he reportedly gave Royce some tutoring and life skills advice.
More items concerning the Twins…
- Ervin Santana‘s post-surgery comeback continues to drag on slowly, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports. The 35-year-old righty failed to reach 90 MPH even once during his 45-pitch live batting practice session in Florida this week. He’d at least managed that velocity in a two-start rehab stint last month, but had to be shut down after those starts in order to rebuild arm strength. There’s currently not a clear timetable for Santana’s return, which is surely disappointing for a Twins organization that once expected to see him back as early as April 20th.
- There’s uncertainty in the Twins organization as to whether they ought to be buyers or sellers at the July non-waiver trade deadline, writes Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While the club certainly fancied themselves contenders amidst a mostly-weak AL Central division headed into the season, significant struggles of Jake Odorizzi, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, along with the absence of Jorge Polanco and the aforementioned Santana are among the reasons that Minnesota currently sits in third place with a 33-39 record – seven games behind the division-leading Indians. “We’re in an interesting spot; we’re trying to figure out who we are and what we should be doing,” Levine said on the subject. “There are so many teams that are clear-cut sellers and a handful that are clear-cut buyers. We’re more inclined to be patient right now and utilize a little more of the runway we have.”
- The Twins still haven’t signed their top draft pick, outfielder Trevor Larnach. Berardino points out that they’d be likely to sign him under slot considering they went a combined $717K over slot for their picks in rounds 4, 5, 9 and 10. Larnach’s slot comes with a value of $3.12MM.
Twins Notes: Payroll, Offseason, Deadline, Shortstops
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney breaks down a big offseason for the Twins in an Insider post. While the team still faces a lofty task in unseating the Indians in the AL Central, it certainly seems to have achieved plenty of bang for the buck in adding multiple veteran pieces this winter. The Twins are on track to have over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season, which will easily set a club record. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the organization’s opportunism this winter, though, is that it was able to add a variety of quality veterans without committing much at all in future resources. Not only that, but the club also feels quite confident in its prospect base, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link). GM Thad Levine says the organization feels it has the pieces in place to allow the team to pursue yet more external acquisitions in the near future without compromising its long-term outlook.
- Meanwhile, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters today that owner Jim Pohlad did not veto anything proposed by his front office this offseason despite the payroll climbing to record heights (via Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). While Falvey said the team will (obviously) evaluate trade needs more closely as the non-waiver deadline approaches this summer, he implied that he expects to have continued support from ownership. “I can tell you this: I know Jim Pohlad is committed to this team and committed to winning because he just proved it,” said Falvey at the press conference to introduce Lance Lynn.
- On a similar note (and also via Berardino), Falvey implied that the team’s pursuit of Yu Darvish wasn’t ultimately called off due to any kind of reluctance from Pohlad but rather because the bidding simply went beyond a point where the team felt comfortable from a baseball standpoint. “There were other opportunities we were pursuing that we tapped out ourselves,” Falvey said when asked about Darvish. Though he didn’t mention the righty by name, Falvey indicated that at times, players of interest to the Twins simply received offers that went beyond internal valuations in terms of years and/or dollars.
- La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the considerable shortstop depth the Twins have throughout their minor league ranks due to the presence of Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier. All three landed on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, and Falvey spoke to Neal about the importance of that depth even with present-day shortstop Jorge Polanco entering just his second full big league season. As Falvey notes, some of the in-house prospects could move off the position, and it’s also of course possible that Polanco could move across the bag to second base should Brian Dozier leave via free agency. Neal notes that the Twins believe all three can play shortstop in the long run but are heartened by knowing that each has the athleticism to move around if needed. Gordon is likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, while Neal notes that in an ideal world, the 18-year-old Lewis (last year’s No. 1 overall pick) would open the year at Class-A Advanced with Javier in the Class-A Midwest League.
Twins Sign Royce Lewis
5:50pm: The Twins have announced the signing. Lewis’ deal is worth $6.725MM, per Heyman, who notes that it’s a record for a high school player in the new system (Twitter links).
4:34pm: The Twins have agreed to a deal with first overall draft pick Royce Lewis, Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman tweets. Lewis will receive a bonus of a bit over $6.7MM. Lewis, a high school shortstop from California, will forgo his commitment to UC-Irvine, as expected.
It was reported late last week that Lewis would soon take a physical with the Twins and that he was expected to receive a bonus slightly higher than the $6.5MM 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson got from the Diamondbacks, so today’s news does not come as a major surprise. It appears Lewis’ bonus will not be the biggest overall in this year’s draft, however — that honor could go to Braves No. 5 overall pick Kyle Wright, who received $7MM, or Rays No. 4 overall selection Brendan McKay, who could receive slightly more.
The first overall pick had a pool value of $7,770,700 this year, so it appears that when Lewis’ signing is complete, the Twins will save around $1M against their total draft pool of $14,156,800. Notably, they’ve already struck a deal with third-rounder Blayne Enlow for $2MM, a little over $1.2MM more than the value of the No. 76 pick. The Lewis and Enlow deals, then, will essentially balance one another out.
The Twins were reportedly interested in both Lewis and McKay with the first overall pick, and Lewis’ willingness to accept the Twins’ bonus offer was reportedly a key factor in their decision to select him. Lewis, though, did rate as one of the premium talents in this year’s draft. MLB.com rated him the No. 5 prospect available, noting that he has excellent athleticism and good range either in the infield or center field. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen rated Lewis similarly, noting his feel for hitting, projectable body and the likelihood he could become a plus center field if he’s eventually moved off shortstop. Baseball America (subscription required) noted Lewis’ plus makeup, speed and raw power.
Lewis will join a collection of young Twins talent that includes big-leaguers Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios, along with prospects Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves and Enlow. Lewis only turned 18 the week before the draft and could require ample time to develop, but he’ll immediately become one of the crown jewels of the Twins’ system.
Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck
No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson‘s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant‘s $6.7MM sum.
More notes on the draft…
- The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
- Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.
Twins Select Royce Lewis First Overall
The Twins have taken high school infielder Royce Lewis with the first overall pick of the 2017 amateur draft, as Keith Law of ESPN.com suggested on Twitter and John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted would occur. The selection is the first for the organization’s newly installed front office, led by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine.
With the draft clock ticking down, reports suggested that Minnesota had whittled it down to two possibilities: Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay and Lewis. But McKay’s camp declined to take the bonus that Minnesota was offering him, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter), leaving the team to move on.
The 18-year-old Lewis is seen as a highly projectable talent who may thrive in center field even if he can’t stick at short. He hails from California’s JSerra Catholic High School. MLB.com’s team of Callis and Jonathan Mayo joined Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs in ranking Lewis as the fifth overall prospect on the board. Baseball America had him at seventh.
High-school righty Hunter Greene and Vanderbilt starter Kyle Wright have drawn the most votes as the top overall player available. But every team’s assessments are different. And maximizing an overall draft requires bonus pool management. The first overall slot came with over $7.7MM in total spending capacity, some of which will likely be allocated to other selections.
Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s
With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.
For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.
A bit more on tonight’s draft…
- Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
- The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves
A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.
- The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
- Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
- It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
Draft Rumors: Braves, Twins, Reds, Rising Names
We’re a bit more than two weeks away from the 2017 draft, and rumors surrounding the top of the draft figure to pick up steam in the coming weeks. Some of the latest draft chatter…
- Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves are seriously considering North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck with the No. 5 overall pick. GM John Coppolella and scouting director Brian Bridges have held private workouts with Beck, who could sign an under-slot deal with Atlanta, giving the club more freedom to spend aggressively further down the draft board. The Braves went a similar route with the No. 3 overall pick last season when selecting high school righty Ian Anderson and signing him for about $2.5MM under slot. According to Shanks, the Braves have also met with other prep stars like Hunter Greene, Shane Baz, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, but Beck is perhaps the favorite to go with the fifth pick (Greene and Lewis are widely expected to be off the board before Atlanta’s pick).
- Baseball America’s John Manuel published his latest mock draft over the weekend and once again has the Twins selecting Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright with the top overall pick. Minnesota has also considered Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay extensively and seems to like him more as a hitter, writes Manuel, but Wright represents “the best combination of upside and modest risk.” Manuel’s mock draft is free to the public and runs through the supplemental round, so it’s an interesting look for any fan.
- In his latest inbox column, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo notes that the Reds seem to prefer McKay as a pitcher rather than a hitter, though he goes through a couple of different hypothetical scenarios to illustrate that it’s not a lock that Cincinnati will select McKay even if he is available with their pick. Manuel, it should be pointed out, hears a bit differently, suggesting that the Reds are leaning slightly toward McKay as a hitter and adds that Cincinnati will take either McKay or Greene.
- BA’s Carlos Collazo recently listed five high school talents whose stock is on the rise as the draft approaches and offers an explanation on each from an unnamed front office executive. Per Collazo, righty Caden Lemons, outfielder Mason House, right-hander Tommy Mace, left-hander Brendan Murphy and right-hander Jackson Rutledge have all worked their way into BA’s Top 200.