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Cubs Notes: GM Search, Ramirez, Dempster

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The search for a general manager will likely dominate Cubs headlines for the rest of the regular season, but don't count on the hunt continuing past that point. According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider-only link), the team would like to name Jim Hendry's replacement by October 1st, in preparation for the offseason. Here's the latest from Chicago's north side:

  • Within the same blog post, Olney discusses the candidacy of Rays GM Andrew Friedman for the Cubs' opening, concluding that this could be Friedman's opportunity to play on a "relatively level playing field in the years ahead."
  • Ex-Ray Matt Garza had high praise for Friedman, telling Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that the man who traded him to the Cubs would "do great" in Chicago.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the new Cubs GM will be given the opportunity to choose his manager, leaving Mike Quade's job very much in jeopardy.
  • Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune wonders if Tom Ricketts' recent comments suggest a reluctance to hire a current assistant GM.
  • Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times examines the likelihood of Ned Colletti becoming the next Cubs general manager.
  • You can criticize his moves and decisions in Chicago, but Hendry's work ethic and experience will land him another job as soon as he wants one, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
  • The Cubs' problems go higher up than the GM, according to Tracy Ringolsby at FOX Sports.
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff takes a look at a few team and player options for 2012, predicting whether or not they will be exercised. Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Dempster are two names Davidoff mentions.

NL Central Rumors: Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Rasmus

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The NL Central lead seems to change hands on a daily basis, meaning we can expect plenty of trade talk over the next two weeks as the Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds attempt to gain an edge in a tight race. Here's the latest from out of the division:

Tigers Have Interest In Beltran, Focused On Pitching

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The Tigers have interest in Carlos Beltran, but a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that the team is still focused on finding a starting pitcher. They are not having any serious talks with the Royals about Jeff Francis, with the Astros about Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez, or with the Cubs about Ryan Dempster. They're also unlikely to acquire Erik Bedard from Seattle, according to Morosi. 

Detroit has gotten very little production out of left field (.251/.296/.387) and center field (.244/.320/.369) this year, so Beltran would be an obvious help. Tim Dierkes wrote about their left field plight earlier this week. Their rotation is middle of the pack with a 4.08 ERA, but that is boosted by the great Justin Verlander (2.15). Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Brad Penny all have 4.50+ ERA's, and Phil Coke (4.88 ERA) has just been replaced by rookie Charlie Furbush. The Tigers maintain their interest in Hiroki Kuroda.

Trade Candidates Who Are Currently Playing Well

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Players who have performed well this month are more likely to intrigue buyers for at least two reasons. First of all, strong performance is an indication of health. Secondly, MLB teams have diverted some scouting efforts from amateurs to the pros since this year’s draft concluded about a month ago.

As a result, it’s fair to say that players who have been performing well this past month are more likely to draw interest at the trade deadline than players with similar overall numbers who had hot starts then cooled off later in the season. Here’s a look at some players who have been performing particularly well over the course of the past 30 days:

  • Michael Cuddyer – The Twins aren’t prepared to sell yet, but Cuddyer would be a candidate to go if they do decide 2011 isn’t their year. He has a .378/.458/.633 line this month.
  • Melky Cabrera – Cabrera is under team control through 2012 as an arbitration eligible player, so Kansas City’s front office may decide to keep him around for another year. His .342/.374/.470 line this month would appeal to contenders, though.
  • Mark Reynolds – The slugger has ten homers in the past 30 days after starting the season slowly. He earns $7.5MM in 2012 and has an $11MM option for 2013 ($500K buyout).
  • J.J. Hardy – Like Reynolds, Hardy had a power surge this month. He hit seven homers and added a .269/.306/.600 line. The Orioles are negotiating an extension with the shortstop, so there’s a good chance he stays in Baltimore.
  • Coco Crisp – Crisp has a respectable .298/.364/.426 line this month.
  • Carlos Pena – Like Reynolds, Pena strikes out a ton and has a low batting average. But his hot streaks can carry teams and he hit ten homers with a .240/.306/.600 line this month. Tim Dierkes examined Pena as a trade candidate earlier today.
  • Livan Hernandez – GM Mike Rizzo says the Nationals will be buyers and sellers this month. Presumably some rival clubs are hoping the dependable Hernandez is available this summer, since he has a 3.62 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month.
  • Edwin Jackson – It’s not surprising that clubs are inquiring on Jackson given that he has posted a 4.05 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month. And his 2.52 xFIP suggests he has pitched better than his ERA indicates.
  • Ryan Dempster – Across town, Dempster could draw interest as well. The right-hander has a 2.59 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 this month.
  • Carlos Villanueva – Though he may not be a trade candidate in the traditional sense, Villanueva’s success in the rotation has presumably drawn the attention of front offices around baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 this month.
  • Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda will require compensation to waive his no-trade clause, but he is already drawing interest. The right-hander has a 2.30 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month.
  • Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Hunter Pence have been playing well, but it seems unlikely that they'll be dealt this month. I’m ignoring relievers, since many relievers have worked ten innings or less this month and that’s a minute sample size.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Riggleman, Fernandez, Orioles

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Congratulations to Derek Jeter on career hit No. 3,000.  Here are some Quick Hits for Saturday afternoon..

  • ESPN's Buster Olney says that rumors are swirling about a managerial change for the White Sox, but a high-ranking source says a change is not being considered and Ozzie Guillen is safe (Twitter link). The ChiSox won today, but had lost four in a row and five of six before that.
  • Alex Rodriguez may need knee surgery that could keep him out a month, and Joel Sherman of The New York Post hears that the Yankees will consider outside options to fill in at third base (Twitter link). Their first choice is to use in-house candidates Eduardo Nunez and Brandon Laird.
  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that Jim Riggleman has a job interview for an unknown position with the Giants next week. Riggleman resigned as Nationals manager last month.
  • The Marlins are not close to signing first-round pick Jose Fernandez, writes Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post.  The 14th overall selection is seeking a deal close to $4MM while the Fish offered just $1.6MM.
  • The Orioles are confident that they will be able to sign top pick pitcher Dylan Bundy, but they also expect that negotiations will go down to the mid-August deadline, writes Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com.
  • The Cubs are likely to pass on requests for starting pitchers Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • We learned yesterday that Brian Gordon is Korea-bound, and now there are rumblings that Chris Bootcheck is as well, tweets Patrick Newman of NPBTracker.com.

Yanks Prefer Left-Handers And Rentals

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8:37PM: The Yankees are "watching everyone, focused on no one," a source tells Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter).

2:23PM: George A. King III of the New York Post lists both Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster as two pitchers of potential interest to the Yankees (which we also heard yesterday), but soon after notes that the Yankees would prefer to add a left-handed starter, and that they also prefer players who are only signed through 2011.

King names Wandy Rodriguez as the best available southpaw starter, though he's anything but a rental; his contract is guaranteed through 2013 with an option for 2014. Dempster better fits the criteria of a rental player; he has a $14MM player option for 2012, but after a disastrous start owns a 3.21 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 56 innings of work since May 1. If he continues to pitch that well through season's end, he can likely find more money on the free agent market. Dempster also has full no-trade protection, making him a difficult target.

Left-handed starters whose contracts expire following the 2011 season include Paul Maholm, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, and Zach Duke. Of the four, only Maholm is currently pitching well enough to be considered an upgrade. Mark Buehrle is also a free agent following 2011, but a clause in his contract states that he will receive an extra year at $15MM if he's traded this season.

Maholm earns just $5.75MM this year and has a $750K buyout on his $9.75MM option for 2012. To date, he's compiled a strong 3.12 ERA that's supported fairly well by his 3.53 FIP and 3.89 xFIP. Chen has been solid in 42 2/3 innings for the Royals, but is currently rehabbing from a lat muscle injury. Those names, of course, are pure speculation based on the Yanks' stated desires.

New York is currently sixth in the American League in starters' ERA with a mark of 3.89, but that's been largely supported by surprising performances from Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, who was recently put on the 15-day disabled list. As King points out, the club expects Phil Hughes to return at some point as well. He's set for a rehab start tomorrow.

Stark On Dempster, Adams, Reyes, Braves

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Jayson Stark leads his latest column for ESPN with a debate with colleague Buster Olney about realignment possibilities.  He notes that his sources say there's no chance divisions are dissolved and baseball becomes two 15-team leagues.  On to Stark's other rumblings…

  • An NL executive who spoke with Cubs GM Jim Hendry says there's no likely scenario where Ryan Dempster is traded.  Earlier today, there were indications the Yankees at least have an eye on Dempster, who has full no-trade rights and a $14MM player option for 2012.
  • Padres reliever Mike Adams also is likely to stay put, as the Padres are only interested in trading impending free agents Heath Bell and Chad Qualls.
  • Jose Reyes might not be Brian Sabean's type of player, says one baseball man who speaks with the Giants' GM regularly.  Still, Stark's source wondered if the liberation of winning last year's World Series might compel Sabean to take more chances.  Of course, the Mets are looking like potential buyers right now.
  • The Braves are "aggressively positioning themselves to deal for an outfield bat as soon as they can find a team ready to open its sell-off shop for business," writes Stark, and they've already checked in on Josh Willingham and Hunter Pence.  We outlined potentially available power bats earlier this month.

Cubs Rumors: Zambrano, Dempster, Soriano

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A few Cubs rumblings from ESPN's Bruce Levine…

  • Yankees scouts watched Carlos Zambrano pitch on the Cubs' recent road trip, writes Levine.  Levine notes that these were not advance scouts, but rather top advisers to GM Brian Cashman.  Hopefully they saw his start against the Cardinals rather than the Phillies.  Levine is of the opinion Zambrano would waive his no-trade clause, as a friend of the pitcher told him earlier this month, "At this point Carlos would probably let the Cubs trade him to Siberia."  As a 4.50 ERA guy in the National League with clubhouse concerns and over $28MM remaining on his contract through 2012, Zambrano would be a tough sell for any team.
  • Some of the Yankees top evaluators have more interest in Ryan Dempster, reports Levine, as you might expect.  They'll get a look at him Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field.  Dempster has $7.7MM remaining on his contract this year, as well as a $14MM player option for 2012.  He also has full no-trade rights and strong ties to Chicago.
  • Alfonso Soriano told Levine he expects to stay with the Cubs (he's signed through 2014), but if the team wants to trade him he wouldn't stay.  Soriano, who is owed about $64MM through '14, has a full no-trade clause.
  • I tackled the possibility of the Cubs becoming sellers earlier this month.  They're ten games out in the NL Central and the wild card.

Upcoming Player Options

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Teams covet options and are reluctant to provide them to players when it's not absolutely necessary, so there are about ten times as many club options as player options coming up after the season. Here's a look at the four upcoming player options and whether they're likely to be exercised:

  • Marco Scutaro, Red Sox – If the Red Sox don't exercise Scutaro's $6MM option, he can remain in Boston for $3MM instead of taking a $1.5MM buyout. Top shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias is now at Triple-A and could position himself to take over the regular shortstop job in 2012. Scutaro, who turns 36 before the offseason, may be choosing between free agency with a $1.5MM buyout or a backup job with a $3MM salary.
  • Ryan Dempster, Cubs - With a typical season (200-plus innings, sub-4.00 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 48% ground ball rate) Dempster would be one of the top pitchers available in a weak free agent class. He'll be 34 after the season, but that's how old Ted Lilly was when he signed his current three-year deal.
  • Rafael Soriano, Yankees – Soriano can opt out and collect $1.5MM or exercise his $11MM player option and stay in the Bronx for another year (or two). Agent Scott Boras did well to bypass GM Brian Cashman and find his client a player-friendly deal last offseason and it's hard to imagine a better opportunity arising for Soriano, even if he reproduces his tremendous 2010 numbers. Soriano's leverage will be reduced with so many quality relievers hitting free agency at once.
  • C.C. Sabathia, Yankees – Sabathia will be the top free agent starter if he opts out and, with respect to Dempster, Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson, it's not that close. Sabathia can exercise a four-year, $92MM option if he gets hurt, has an off-year or decides free agency is too much of a hassle, but the early expectation is that he'll opt out. It's a win-win decision for the big left-hander.

Quick Hits: Phillips, Olsen, Rangers, Greinke

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The great Mickey Mantle announced his retirement on this day in 1969.  The Mick was coming off his worst of his 18 Major League seasons, a .237/.385/.398 performance in 1968.  While a .782 OPS would be a pretty decent performance for most mortals, it was well behind Mantle's .977 career OPS.  Mantle retired with 536 home runs, seven World Series rings and legendary status with both the Yankees and the sport as a whole.

Some news items…

  • Brandon Phillips wants to play for the Reds beyond his current contract, and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer speculates how much it might cost to keep Phillips in Cincinnati.  The club holds a $12MM team option on Phillips for 2012, and Fay thinks Phillips would have to accept less tham $12MM per season in a new deal.  Fay guesses Phillips will ask for a Dan Uggla-esque contract, while the Reds will try to sign him to a deal similar to Juan Uribe's pact with the Dodgers.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Reds' financial situation might make them hard-pressed to pick up Phillips' 2012 option, let alone give him another expensive, multiyear deal.  Another year of pennant contention and more fans in the Great American Ballpark would certainly change things, of course.
  • It came as news to Scott Olsen that Pirates GM Neal Huntington listed him as as a bullpen candidate if he doesn't make the rotation, reports Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  “They didn’t bring me in here to be a bullpen guy,” Olsen said. “They want to do that, we are going to have to have a conversation about it, and we haven’t had one about it.”  Olsen's contract with Pittsburgh includes $3MM in incentives based on the number of starts that Olsen makes, so obviously Olsen has a stated interest in staying out of the bullpen.
  • The Rangers' payroll for 2011 will be almost 70% higher than it was in 2010, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
  • Zack Greinke says he "kind of had to play the bad guy" by requesting a trade from the Royals, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  "The way things were in Kansas City, if I hadn't done that, the fans would have been outraged if I was traded," Greinke said.  "The fans — I don't know why, but they really liked me."
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com lists six prospects who might be "this year's Mike Trout" and have a breakout minor league campaign.
  • One of Law's breakout candidates is Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos, a supplemental first-round pick (44th overall) for Detroit in 2010.  John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press talked to the 18-year-old about playing alongside his childhood hero, Miguel Cabrera.
  • The Cubs have already paid back the $3MM they owed Ryan Dempster in contract deferral payments, reports ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine.
  • Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps the week's minor league transactions.
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