Sean Manaea

NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod

By Mark Polishuk | December 16, 2023 at 11:08am CDT

“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.

Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers. While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board. The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.

Zaidi: Giants Plan To Pursue Rotation Help, Defensive Upgrades In Outfield

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2023 at 3:33pm CDT

The Giants head into the offseason in search of ways to bolster a team that has produced just one winning record in the past seven seasons. San Francisco flirted with Wild Card contention for much of the 2023 campaign, but a 9-19 finish to the season dashed any hopes of returning to the playoffs. Not only that, but the team’s late collapse doomed manager Gabe Kapler, who was dismissed after four years on the job and replaced by future Hall of Fame skipper Bob Melvin.

The Giants’ hiring of Melvin dovetailed with an extension for president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, both of whom are now signed through 2026. Zaidi kicked off his winter with a fair bit of transparency, candidly acknowledging in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea that his team is “going to be in the starting pitching market” and that he’ll also be on the lookout for ways to augment his outfield alignment. Specifically, Zaidi hopes to improve his outfield’s glovework. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi tells Shea.

At least as far as the outfield upgrades are concerned, the trade market will present more options than free agency. Cody Bellinger is the top outfielder (and top non-Shohei Ohtani) free agent of the offseason, and the former Dodgers star is quite familiar to Zaidi, who served as the general manager in Los Angeles before being hired away by the division-rival Giants. That said, Scott Boras will surely be seeking a massive contract for Bellinger on the heels of a resurgent season, and given the dearth of quality hitters on the market, competition for him could be steep.

Other outfield options with plus gloves include Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor (to name a few). Kiermaier and Bader come with plenty of injury concern, however, and all three have inconsistent offensive track records (at best). Perhaps for those reasons, Zaidi at least alluded to the possibility of operating on the trade market — noting that younger (and thus more athletic players) tend to come via that market rather than free agency. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee, who’ll be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter, could bring some of that youth and athleticism to the table, as he’s just 25 years of age. However, his season ended early with an ankle injury, and MLB evaluators are split on the extent of his defensive value in the outfield.

The Giants’ current outfield alignment figures to include some combination of Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto, who exercised an $18MM player option yesterday and will now return for a second season at Oracle Park. Alternative options on the 40-man roster include Austin Slater, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Wade Meckler and Blake Sabol. That group was lackluster in the field, ranking 22nd in the Majors with -7 Defensive Runs Saved and 27th with -13 Outs Above Average.

As far as the pitching is concerned, it’s a natural and obvious need for the Giants to pursue. Ace Logan Webb will return to front the rotation, and the Giants picked up their $10MM club option on righty Alex Cobb (a net $8MM decision when factoring in the option’s $2MM buyout). Top prospect Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in 2023 but has just seven big league starts to his name. Ross Stripling picked up a player option and will be back in the mix next year, though he’s plenty familiar working in a swingman capacity. Righty Anthony DeSclafani is signed through 2024 under a three-year, $36MM contract, but he’s pitched just 118 2/3 innings of 5.16 ERA ball during that deal due to ankle and forearm injuries — the former of which required surgery.

For much of the season’s second half, the Giants operated with only a pair of traditional starters. Bullpen games were a frequent tactic, with Stripling, Sean Manaea (who declined a player option) and Keaton Winn among the pitchers who were tasked with working long relief stints in such settings. Given the lack of established rotation talent, starting pitching is an obvious area of focus the team.

Zaidi acknowledged that he expects to talk with Manaea and his agents at the Boras Corporation about a potential return, but the starting pitching market is generally considered to be a deep one this offseason. Beyond Ohtani (who won’t pitch in 2024), 25-year-old NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto headlines this year’s class. Countryman Shota Imanaga is also well-regarded and available for MLB teams to sign. More known commodities include Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez, though as shown on yesterday’s Top 50 Free Agent List here at MLBTR, the options beyond those top tiers are plentiful.

Giants To Exercise Club Option On Alex Cobb; Sean Manaea Opts Out Of Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 5, 2023 at 6:40pm CDT

The Giants intend to exercise their $10MM club option on Alex Cobb’s services for the 2024 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). In another notable Giants pitching development, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via X) that Sean Manaea has elected to opt out of the final year of his contract, foregoing a $12.5MM salary to test free agency.

It was widely expected that Cobb’s option would be picked up, though a possible wrench was thrown into the mix with last week’s news that Cobb was undergoing hip surgery. Though Cobb might not be able to return to a big league mound until May at the earliest, the Giants decided that the $8MM net decision (Cobb’s option contained a $2MM buyout) was still worth the investment. Obviously the surgery was no surprise to the team, as Cobb has battled hip problems for much of the season and had his year officially ended by a 15-day injured list placement in late September.

Cobb signed with San Francisco in November 2021 on what is now a three-year, $28MM deal with the option exercised. The results have been more than solid, as Cobb has a 3.80 ERA over 301 innings for the Giants, and he was even an All-Star this past season. His strikeout rate, barrel rate, and total barrels declined sharply from 2022 to 2023, though Cobb also improved his walk rate and his fastball velocity from season to season. Cobb also has a 59.4% grounder rate across the last two seasons, and a .327 BABIP indicates that his numbers might’ve been better if it wasn’t for the Giants’ subpar infield defense.

Injuries have also been a factor, as Cobb has been on the IL four separate times during his Giants tenure. That said, Cobb still brought some durability to the rotation since he and Logan Webb were the only two starters San Francisco used in a normal starting role for much of the 2023 season. The Giants addressed the other rotation spots in a number of ways, ranging for actual starts, piggyback-style pitcher usage, or an opener/bulk pitcher mix.

Manaea was one of the many Giants pitchers used in this fashion, as he started only 10 of his 37 appearances. However, Manaea often found himself in a bulk pitcher or piggyback role, and he finished with 117 2/3 innings pitched while posting a 4.44 ERA and an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate. It was a pretty decent course-correction for Manaea after some early struggles cost him a full rotation job, and it was a good bounce-back after a down year with the Padres in 2022.

Despite that down year, Manaea landed a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last winter, with the opt-out built into the contract so Manaea could quickly re-enter the market if he had a better platform year. While not a hands-down breakout year on paper, the left-hander should be able to find another multi-year deal heading into his age-32 season, likely with a team that wants him in a full-time starting role.

Heading into 2024, San Francisco’s rotation consists of Webb, Cobb (when healthy), DeSclafani (if healthy), Stripling (who passed on his own opt-out opportunity), and Kyle Harrison, with Tristan Beck, Jakob Junis, and Keaton Winn on hand as depth options. The Giants might well use at least one rotation spot for another mix-and-match assortment of pitchers, but the club is known to be looking for pitchers to bring more stability to the starting five. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is known to be on the Giants’ radar, and depending on how aggressive the team plans to be, any number of top free agent or trade options could be explored.

NL West Notes: Conforto, Manaea, Sewald, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2023 at 9:30pm CDT

Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea can each opt out of the final year of their contracts with the Giants, with Conforto owed $18MM in 2024 and Manaea $12.5MM. Neither player has yet decided whether or not they’ll opt out, with Conforto telling NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic that “I think the good thing is it’ll be a hard decision, but I don’t think there’s a bad outcome really. It will be tough, just because I’m very close with these guys and the uncertainty there could give you a little bit of anxiety, but again, there are a lot of conversations that have to happen before I’m even close to knowing what I want to do.”

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener. Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching. Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength. From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances. As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024. Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster. On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options. There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.

Giants Less Likely To Trade From Rotation After DeSclafani Injury

By Anthony Franco | August 1, 2023 at 10:28am CDT

Within the past week, multiple reports have emerged about the Giants receiving interest on their starting pitchers. There was some thought that San Francisco could deal a back-end starter for help elsewhere on the roster.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi downplayed that possibility when meeting with the SF beat last night (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Area). Pointing to the recent placement of Anthony DeSclafani on the 15-day injured list (plus an injury to Triple-A righty Keaton Winn), Zaidi said the front office is “kind of in a different position than we were even a week ago” with regards to the pitching. As a result, he stated “it’s less likely we explore something there. It kind of feels like we have just enough pitching to be comfortable and to have some options, but we’ll see what happens over the next day.”

At the same time, it doesn’t seem the Giants are anxious to add rotation depth either. Asked about that possibility, Zaidi noted the club’s success when deploying openers and/or bullpen games. He’s also spoken previously about his comfort with the likes of Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Jakob Junis behind staff ace Logan Webb. At the beginning of July, the baseball operations leader said the Giants were likely only to get involved for potential top-of-the-rotation arms — which are generally lacking in supply this deadline season anyhow.

Still, the loss of DeSclafani deals something of a hit to the group. The righty hasn’t had a great season, carrying a 4.88 ERA with a below-average 18.9% strikeout rate. He trails only Webb and Cobb on the team in innings pitched, though. DeSclafani is battling a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. The team announced last night the righty was headed for a second opinion (relayed by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). There’s a possibility the injury will end his season, though the results of further imaging will obviously determine that.

While the Giants might be quiet on the pitching front, they’ll surely continue working the phones over the next six-plus hours. San Francisco has been searching for middle infield help for some time. Thairo Estrada is headed out on a minor league rehab stint, perhaps reducing the urgency to add there, but there’s still room for an acquisition given Estrada’s and Brandon Crawford’s recent health concerns.

Giants Could Deal From Rotation Depth

By Steve Adams | July 31, 2023 at 1:42pm CDT

The Giants have drawn interest in their starting pitchers, and while ace Logan Webb rather clearly figures to be off the table in any discussions, San Francisco has a handful of shorter-term options that could make for more realistic trade possibilities. FanSided’s Robert Murray wrote last week that lefty Alex Wood could be an option to change hands, and Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic have now similarly mentioned the possibility of trading Wood or another bulk-innings option as a means of acquiring either middle infield help or prospect depth.

A free agent at season’s end, the 32-year-old Wood has voiced a preference to remain with the Giants (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). However, he’s also made clear he wants to start games, and San Francisco has frequently used him as a bulk option behind an opener. Four of Wood’s past six appearances have come in relief of an opener. He hasn’t reached six innings in an appearance all season and hasn’t recorded an out in the sixth inning since May 26.

The Giants have been careful about limiting the number of times Wood faces opponents in a game, and with good reason. In 2022, when the lefty was deployed solely as a starter, he held opponents to a .241/.300/.344 batting line on the first trip through the order and a .256/.307/.399 slash the second time around. In the 95 plate appearances where Wood turned a lineup over for the third time, opponents exploded for a .326/.368/.573 batting line. He had similarly problematic splits in 2021, too.

Wood could certainly still be of interest to clubs seeking help at the back of the rotation, although he currently looks like something of a buy-low candidate and might need to be swapped out for an infielder in similar standing with his organization. The veteran southpaw has a pedestrian 4.75 ERA on the season, and his 18.8% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, 43.6% ground-ball rate and 1.19 HR/9 mark have all gone in the wrong direction, relative to his 2021-22 output. Wood is pitching in the second season of a two-year, $25MM deal and will reach free agency again following the season. About $4.167MM of this year’s salary remains to be paid out.

San Francisco has other arms to peddle in similar scenarios. Right-hander Ross Stripling and lefty Sean Manaea are both in the first season of two-year deals that guarantee them the same $25MM promised to Wood. Both, however, can opt out at season’s end. Neither has pitched up to his career standards, but both have been considerably better after a tough start to the year. Since returning from the injured list in late June, Stripling carries a 3.64 ERA and a sensational 22-to-1 K/BB ratio in 29 1/3 innings. Manaea, since a full-time move to multi-inning relief work, has 4.03 ERA with a 29.2% strikeout rate against just a 5.9% walk rate. The recent trends are encouraging, but the Giants might still have a tough time extracting present-day value in a trade — and it’s quite possible one or both will forgo his opt-out opportunity at season’s end. That’ll depend largely on how the final two months play out.

It’s worth noting that since reports about interest in the Giants’ rotation depth first emerged, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani was placed on the injured list. An MRI revealed a Grade 1 flexor strain, and DeSclafani is expected to miss a “few weeks” with the injury, at the very least. That, coupled with his prior struggles leading up to the IL placement (21 runs in his past 23 1/3 innings), figures to all but remove him as a trade candidate.

Mike Yastrzemski To Undergo MRI For Hamstring Strain

By Mark Polishuk | April 30, 2023 at 10:11pm CDT

Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski suffered a left hamstring strain while diving for a fly ball in the eighth inning of today’s game with the Padres. Matt Carpenter’s fly to shallow center field fell in for what ended up as the game-winning two-run double in San Diego’s 6-4 victory, as Yastrzemski made a long run for the ball and fell just short of a highlight-reel catch. After the play was over, Yastrzemski left the game after a visit from team trainers.

Speaking with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and other reporters after the game, Yastrzemski said the injury occurred on the second step of his run towards the ball. The outfielder will undergo an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the strain, but a trip to the 10-day injured list certainly seems likely.

After seemingly breaking out with the Giants in 2019-20, Yastrzemski was roughly a league-average hitter (102 wRC+) over his next two seasons, batting .219/.308/.424 with 42 homers over 1090 plate appearances in 2021-22. Teams increasingly played the shift against the left-handed hitting Yastrzemski in those two seasons, so it isn’t surprising that he has been off to a much more promising start in 2023, given the new rules limiting defensive shifts. Yaz has hit .292/.333/.521 with five home runs in his first 102 PA, and while below-average strikeout and walk rates and a notable gap in his wOBA (.364) to his xwOBA (.327) indicate he is somewhat outperforming his peripherals, Yastrzemski is still making plenty of hard contact.

Since Bryce Johnson is still on the seven-day concussion IL, Slusser figures that Brett Wisely (just called up as the Giants’ extra player for their two-game series in Mexico City) will probably stick with the team to get a chunk of the center field work with Yastrzemski sidelined. Austin Slater also just recently returned from the injured list, making a Slater/Wisely platoon the likeliest answer in center field until Yastrzemski or Johnson are back.

The two games in Mexico City provided plenty of injury drama for the Giants, as Brandon Crawford and Sean Manaea each picked up knocks on Saturday. Crawford left the game in the fourth inning due to some right calf tightness and didn’t play today, but told Slusser and other reporters that hopes to be back in action for Monday’s date with the Astros. Manaea was hit on the leg by a Nelson Cruz line drive on Saturday and lasted only 2 2/3 innings, but appeared to be okay today.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 19, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Giants Planning To Use Ross Stripling Primarily In Relief

By Anthony Franco | April 14, 2023 at 10:18pm CDT

The Giants went into the season with a somewhat fluid rotation. San Francisco added Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to a staff that already included Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. That left some question about how skipper Gabe Kapler would divvy up the starts, though there’s more clarity a few weeks into the season.

In an appearance on KNBR radio yesterday, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the Giants would primarily use Stripling out of the bullpen for now (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The front office leader indicated Stripling could take an occasional start as needed to keep others rested, essentially functioning in a swing capacity.

The veteran righty is plenty familiar with that kind of role. Stripling has 105 starts and 102 relief appearances at the big league level. He’s worked at least partially in relief during each season of his career. Stripling logged a career-high workload with the Blue Jays last season, tossing 134 1/3 innings over 32 outings. He’d worked in a swing role through the end of May before assuming a full-time rotation job with Toronto. Stripling posted an excellent 3.01 ERA while keeping his walks to a meager 3.7% clip during that season.

San Francisco added Stripling and Manaea on matching contracts — two years and $25MM with an opt-out after the first season. Manaea came out of the bullpen for his first appearance on April 3 but has started his last two outings, including tonight’s extra-inning loss to the Tigers. Stripling, conversely, started on April 2 and was called upon in relief for his next two appearances. It seems that arrangement will continue, at least assuming everyone’s healthy.

Stripling is off to a tough start to his Giants tenure. He’s been tagged for ten runs in as many innings, serving up a staggering six longballs. His velocity and swing-and-miss rates remain in line with last season’s respective marks but the volume of hard contact in the early going has been untenable.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive judgments on the acquisition. There’s plenty of time left in the season. Stripling figures to get consistent rotation run at some point again since virtually no club makes it through a full season without encountering starting pitching injuries. Still, it’s not the start the Giants or Stripling had envisioned — particularly since the inclusion of the opt-out clause in his deal gave Stripling a path to retesting free agency after replicating last year’s success as a starting pitcher.

Manaea’s early results have also been a little rocky. The southpaw has surrendered six runs in 11 1/3 frames, albeit with a solid 13:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Manaea has come out with an early-season velocity spike, though, offering optimism he’ll improve his performance over the coming weeks. He entered play Friday averaging 94.5 MPH on his sinker. That’s more than three ticks above last year’s 91.2 MPH average heater. Manaea topped the 97 MPH mark for the first time in his career during his relief outing, per Brooks Baseball. His velocity predictably wasn’t quite that high during his first start but the 94.2 MPH average fastball he demonstrated was higher than in any of his outings last season.

Giants Sign Sean Manaea

By Nick Deeds and Steve Adams | December 16, 2022 at 7:10pm CDT

DECEMBER 16: The Giants have officially the signing of Manaea.

DECEMBER 12: Lefty Sean Manaea and the Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the 2023 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Manaea is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The deal marks a return to the Bay Area for the 30-year-old Manaea, who was traded from Kansas City to Oakland as a prospect at the 2015 trade deadline as part of the Ben Zobrist deal. Manaea debuted for the A’s the following year and was a steady presence in their rotation throughout his six seasons in Oakland, though he did miss most of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Still, with both his career ERA (3.86) and FIP (3.96) under 4.00, Manaea was a fairly attractive arm to teams searching for rotation help after the lockout ended this spring, and so the A’s shipped him to San Diego along with relief prospect Aaron Holiday to acquire prospects Euribiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez. Things didn’t go so well for Manaea in San Diego, however, as he struggled in 2022, posting an unsightly 4.96 ERA (75 ERA+) in 158 innings that his 4.53 FIP only slightly improves upon.

That rough platform season is likely why Manaea was available to San Francisco, who showed interest in him during last week’s Winter Meetings, at such a low price compared to what we’ve seen from the rest of the mid-rotation market. It’s of course possible that Manaea eschewed a larger guarantee in order to secure a chance to test the market again next offseason, hoping to see his results improve in 2023.

In that regard, the deal is similar to the one the Giants signed Carlos Rodon to last offseason, albeit at a much lower AAV of just $12.5MM compared to Rodon’s $22MM. Manaea may prove to be Rodon’s replacement in a rotation that includes Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, should Rodon ultimately sign elsewhere this offseason. Rodon is known to be seeking a seven-year deal this offseason, with the Cardinals and Yankees among those interested.

While it seems unlikely Manaea can imitate Rodon’s sterling 2022 production in 2023, there’s still reason to believe that Manaea can bounce back from his difficult 2022 in the coming season. His strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.5%, respectively, are roughly in line with his career norms and were actually slightly above league average last year according to Baseball Savant. And for the season’s first three months, Manaea’s numbers were right in line with his career marks. Through the end of June, he’d posted a 3.92 ERA and 3.76 FIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Over the final three months of the season, however, Manaea was rocked for an ERA just over 6.00, with a huge portion of the damage coming in a pair of eight-run drubbings at Dodger Stadium.

Manaea’s biggest problem in 2022 was the long ball, as he allowed a whopping 1.65 home runs per nine innings that doubtlessly contributed to his strand rate of just 67.5% — his lowest in any full season of his career. Moving his home games Oracle Park, one of the most difficult ballparks in the majors for home run hitters, should aid Manaea in his bid to return to form in 2023. If Manaea can post a season more in line with his 2021 performance, where he posted a 3.91 ERA/3.66 FIP in his 179 1/3 innings of work, he’ll justify the investment from San Francisco and be in line for a larger deal, more in line with the four-year, $52MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him this offseason.

With their starting five for 2023 likely set barring another surprise addition, the Giants seem primed to turn their attention to the lineup, which largely struggled in 2022 with the exception of All-Star Joc Pederson, who returned to the Giants by accepting a qualifying offer early in the offseason. San Francisco already added Mitch Haniger but is rumored to be interested in adding a second outfielder, even after missing on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo, and Cody Bellinger.

The Giants are also are expected to address an infield that lost Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria to free agency this offseason, while suffering a considerable step back from shortstop Brandon Crawford after his resurgent 2021 season. The Giants reportedly have Carlos Correa as their top option in the free agent shortstop market, with the Twins and Cubs representing possible competition for Correa’s services. San Francisco also seems likely to look to upgrade their relief corps for next season. Earlier, they were rumored to have interest in pairing Kenley Jansen, who signed with the Red Sox, with Camilo Doval at the back of their bullpen, so a pursuit of another back-end bullpen option like Taylor Rogers seems feasible.

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