Padres Notes: Hosmer, Myers, Suzuki, Cruz, Montesino
Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers have been regulars in trade rumors for months, and that status hasn’t changed now that the lockout is over. The Padres have been “aggressively shopping” both players in trade talks, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, in an effort to clear some salary and roster space, plus create some more flexibility under the competitive balance tax.
Even with the tax threshold rising to $230MM this season, the Padres are already projected for a luxury tax number just shy of $218MM (as per Roster Resource). Since the Padres did exceed the CBT last season, they’d have to pay the larger “two-timer” penalty for crossing the threshold in consecutive years, so all things considered, the club would surely prefer to avoid a second tax overage if at all possible.
Getting either Hosmer or Myers off the books would help greatly in this regard. Since a player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value over the life of his contract, Hosmer’s tax number is $18MM per season and Myers is $13.83MM, though both players are set to earn more in actual dollars. Myers is owed $20MM in 2022 and there is a $20MM club option on his services for 2023 with a $1MM buyout, while Hosmer is owed a total of $59MM over the 2022-25 seasons.
These pricey contracts also don’t hold a ton of appeal to other teams, which is why San Diego has explored any number of scenarios to try and swing a deal. The Padres have looked to try and attach a prospect (Luis Campusano and Robert Hassell were mentioned) to Hosmer in talks with the Rangers and Cubs last summer, as some kind of sweetener is likely necessary to move the first baseman. Beyond the $59MM, Hosmer has also posted essentially replacement-level production (0.6 fWAR) since the start of the 2018 season. Myers has been similarly inconsistent over that same timeframe but his 5.5 fWAR has clearly marked him as the more productive of the two. If Myers may be the easier trade candidate, however, the Padres’ needs in the outfield would only be increased if Myers was suddenly no longer around.
This isn’t to say that San Diego isn’t already eyeing replacements. As Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune puts it via Twitter, the Padres’ “Plan A” would seem to be a scenario where the club signs Seiya Suzuki and Nelson Cruz, while moving one of Hosmer or Myers. Several other teams have been linked to both Suzuki and Cruz, though in Cruz’s case, recent reports have indicated the Padres could be a finalist for the veteran slugger. Even with one of Hosmer or Myers dealt, plans to add two prominent free agent bats could seem to indicate that the Friars are willing to spend at least in the range of that $230MM tax threshold.
In other team news, first base/outfield prospect Daniel Montesino will miss the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Montesino signed for a $1MM bonus during the 2020-21 international signing period, and posted a big .934 OPS over 243 plate appearances for the Padres’ Dominican Summer League squad last year. MLB Pipeline (24th) and Baseball America (29th) each listed Montesino within their rankings of San Diego’s top 30 prospects.
Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market
Star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki waited out the lockout in search of a deal with an MLB team this offseason. The league and Players Association agreed to freeze his posting window during the work stoppage. The official lifting of the lockout restarted the clock, giving teams twenty days to finalize an agreement.
Suzuki has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of a dozen teams this winter, and Jon Heyman of the MLB Network lists five (via Twitter) that have been prominent players: the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. That’s not necessarily a group of finalists, to be clear, but it seems those teams are among Suzuki’s top suitors.
Four of those clubs — Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston — have been known entrants in the bidding for some time. A report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports in January named the four clubs as among those likely to remain factors until he chooses a destination. The Dodgers, though, hadn’t been strongly linked to Suzuki until this point.
Los Angeles doesn’t necessarily have a need in the outfield. Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock make for a strong starting trio, and Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux could see some action on the grass as well. The Dodgers haven’t been shy about acquiring talent even in the absence of an obvious weakness on the roster, however. And Los Angeles is clearly open to further bolstering an already strong offense, as they’re reportedly making a run at Freddie Freeman. Manager Dave Roberts isn’t afraid to move even his best players around the diamond, and the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow NL teams to cast a wider net in search of talent.
With a little under three weeks before Suzuki has to make a decision, there still seems to be a decent array of possible landing spots. Only 27 years old, Suzuki should appeal both to win-now clubs like the Dodgers and teams (the Cubs perhaps among them) that are eyeing 2023 and beyond as more realistic windows of contention. He’s coming off a monstrous .317/.433/.639 showing with the Hiroshima Carp, for whom he’s been a strong middle-of-the-order bat in recent years. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke earlier in the offseason generally suggested Suzuki could immediately be a solid everyday right fielder in MLB.
Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.
Seiya Suzuki Still “100% Committed” To Playing In MLB This Season
One of the most bizarre storylines of the ongoing lockout has been the frozen posting window for Seiya Suzuki. The star NPB outfielder was made available to big league clubs in November via the posting process, but he didn’t agree to a deal with an MLB team before the league implemented the lockout on December 2.
The league and union agreed to freeze the 30-day signing window for the duration of the work stoppage. With the lockout set to reach its three-month anniversary tomorrow, however, questions have intermittently popped up about how long Suzuki himself might want to wait. After all, he could simply choose to return to the Hiroshima Carp for the upcoming season and explore the possibility of making the move to MLB next winter.
Suzuki, though, remains intent on seeing the posting process through. Joel Wolfe, his representative at Wasserman, tells Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic that Suzuki’s thought process was unchanged by the league’s announcement that the first two series of the regular season have been cancelled (Twitter link). “Seiya is 100% committed to playing in MLB this year. He’s shown remarkable patience and resolve,” Wolfe told Baggarly.
That’s not a huge surprise, as Suzuki told Baggarly in mid-January he planned to wait things out. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” Suzuki said at the time. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”
Still, those comments came before the latest uncertainty regarding the MLB labor situation. In the interim, NPB has begun its preseason schedule and opens its regular season on March 25. MLB, on the other hand, won’t begin playing meaningful games until at least the second week of April. More to the point, the league’s decision to cancel some regular season action only further complicates the labor situation and figures to make the ongoing lockout more difficult to resolve. Waiting things out is no doubt an unenviable situation for Suzuki, but it seems he’s committed to doing so in order to test his ability against big league competition.
Whenever he is allowed to negotiate with teams, the righty-hitting outfielder should have a robust market. At 27, he’s among the youngest players in free agency. Scouting reports generally suggest he could be a capable everyday right fielder at the MLB level. And Suzuki’s coming off an excellent season in NPB, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. The Padres, Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Red Sox and Rangers are among the clubs that have been linked to Suzuki this offseason.
Padres Notes: Suzuki, Closer Situation, Abrams
In a Monday mailbag, Dennis Lin of The Athletic poured cold water on pre-lockout reports that the Padres had targeted Nick Castellanos to fill an outfield/DH vacancy, but he did suggest the club might enter the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki when free agency resumes. While fitting Suzuki into their payroll might require finding a taker for at least a portion of the salary due to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers on the trade market, principal owner Peter Seidler has indicated the club’s budget has at least a bit of room for growth, though this could depend on luxury tax provisions in the new CBA (the Padres slightly exceeded the threshold last season, and the previous deal included escalating penalties for repeat offenders). The longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp outfielder, who might offer the highest bang-for-the-buck potential among remaining free agent outfielders, won’t command nearly the salary sought by Castellanos or Kris Bryant (MLBTR projects Suzuki will sign for five years and $55MM). Including projections for arbitration-eligible players, the Padres are presently on the hook for just shy of $199MM in 2022 salary (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource).
Though the Giants and Mariners appear to be the industry favorites to sign Suzuki, Padres fans have learned never to put anything past GM and president of baseball operations A. J. Preller, particularly given Seidler’s repeated willingness to green-light moves that commit the club to significant years and dollars. As Lin notes, the Padres had only three above-average lineup regulars (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth) in 2021. Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.
A few other Padres notes as we wait out the (rather bleak) CBA negotiations:
- In the same mailbag, Lin discussed the Padres’ closer situation, which remains unsettled following the departure of 2021 NL saves leader Mark Melancon to the Diamondbacks. Drew Pomeranz is the obvious choice for a ninth-inning role, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon that ended his 2021 season in August. Lin notes that both Emilio Pagan and the recently signed Robert Suarez have experience in the role, but Pagan had a less-than-stellar 2021 (4.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP) and all of Suarez’s 68 career saves came in Japan, where he’s played since 2016. Should the Padres no longer view him as a starter, Dinelson Lamet could also be an option, though new manager Bob Melvin may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. In any event, Lin expects the Padres to address lineup questions before turning to the bullpen. They could turn to one or several of low-cost options with histories of big-league success, a list that includes Brad Hand, Chris Martin, Archie Bradley, Adam Ottavino, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit, Mychal Givens, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Strop, Richard Rodriguez, and Tyler Clippard.
- Consensus top-10 prospect CJ Abrams, who missed the second half of the 2021 season after suffering a broken tibia and torn MCL in late-June infield collision and had recently dealt with shoulder issues, has been cleared to resume baseball activities, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Prior to the injury, the 21-year-old shortstop compiled a .296/.363/.420 batting line in a 42-game sample at Double-A San Antonio. As he’s not yet on the Padres’ 40-man roster, Abrams is not affected by the lockout and could play in mini-camp games in short order. Though he’s certain to begin 2022 in the minors, Abrams is a potential candidate for a late-season call-up should his bat continue to show life in the upper minors, particularly if Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder issues persist or manager Bob Melvin revisits plans to deploy Tatis in the outfield.
Latest On Mets’ Post-Lockout Plans
The Mets have already had one of the most active offseasons of any team, signing Max Scherzer to a record-setting contract and inking a trio of bats — Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar — to multi-year deals. The combined outlay on that quartet of additions was $254.5MM, pushing the team’s payroll to a projected $263MM (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).
SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Mets are likely to target more rotation help — listing Yusei Kikuchi as one candidate — but have likely completed most of the heavy lifting on the position-player side of the roster. Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo tweets today that pitching is indeed expected to be the team’s priority, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the team isn’t completely closed off to bringing in another impact hitter. A payroll approaching $300MM isn’t out of the question in Queens, Heyman notes.
A pitching addition would be far more straightforward than signing another bat. The quartet of Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker is immensely talented but also laden with injury risk. Fifth starter candidates David Peterson and Tylor Megill are solid enough options, but as currently constructed, the Mets would be one injury away from needing to lean on both (and two away from having to tap into a shaky group of Triple-A options).
Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw stand out as two of the most prominent starters who have yet to sign, though Martino noted last week when linking the Mets to Kikuchi that they did not have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. There are, of course, myriad trade scenarios to consider as well. The A’s (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) and Reds (Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo) have starters who could conceivably change hands. The Padres have a wealth of young arms if the Mets are simply looking to add some depth, as they did last year when acquiring the now-injured Joey Lucchesi from San Diego.
On the pitching side of the coin, things are far muddier for the Mets — due in no small part to that aforementioned pre-lockout spending spree. The advent of a universal designated hitter might help to alleviate any logjams, but Mets already have crowded outfield and infield pictures alike. Marte, Canha Brandon Nimmo figure to get the bulk of the work in the outfield, while the infield mix will feature Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, Francisco Lindor, Escobar and Jeff McNeil. Beyond that group of nine, the Mets have both J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith as capable corner options in the infield/outfield mix.
There’s already talk that the Amazins will be open to moving McNeil and/or Smith once the lockout lifts, which would make some sense given the lack of regular at-bats available. McNeil, Smith and Davis (more on him here) seem to be the likeliest change-of-scenery candidates, and moving multiple names from that group could pave the way for another addition.
With such a crowded roster already in place, there isn’t necessarily one glaring position the Mets need to feel compelled to shop. If the team is comfortable with Cano and Luis Guillorme logging the bulk of the work at second base, for instance, that’d free up the ability to trade McNeil and perhaps add an impact bat who could primarily serve as a DH (e.g. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz). The Mets could also play Escobar at second base in that scenario and pursue help at the hot corner. Frankly, with so many players who have experience at multiple positions, Mets fans could dream on innumerable speculative scenarios. Martino has even suggested that despite having signed multiple outfielders, a Mets pursuit of Seiya Suzuki cannot be expressly ruled out.
Today’s reports don’t necessarily indicate anything that contradicts prior reporting but rather serve to reinforce the idea that the Mets aren’t likely to rest on their laurels after an active November/December. Pitching still seems likeliest to be the focus of their efforts, but the potential trades of some combination of McNeil, Smith and Davis could leave the team with the flexibility to add a bat of note — particularly if one of the prominent sluggers on the market is struggling to find a deal to his liking. Owner Steve Cohen certainly has the financial chops to swoop in and opportunistically sign such a free agent to a pillow deal, at the very least.
Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market
TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.
Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.
Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.
Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.
Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).
A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.
MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.
Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.
Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.
As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.
Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.
MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?
Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.
During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.
One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.
Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.
Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.
For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?
(poll link for app users)
Assuming He Signs With An MLB Team, Where Will Seiya Suzuki Land?
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Red Sox 15% (2,665)
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Mariners 14% (2,390)
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Giants 13% (2,311)
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Yankees 8% (1,464)
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Rangers 6% (1,107)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,061)
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Mets 4% (679)
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Dodgers 3% (522)
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Padres 3% (495)
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Braves 3% (484)
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Cubs 3% (480)
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Angels 3% (477)
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Phillies 3% (452)
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White Sox 2% (318)
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Tigers 2% (278)
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Pirates 2% (278)
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Cardinals 1% (217)
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Guardians 1% (196)
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Orioles 1% (173)
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Brewers 1% (158)
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Astros 1% (154)
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Twins 1% (137)
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Rays 1% (133)
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Reds 1% (125)
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Nationals 1% (114)
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Royals 1% (112)
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A's 1% (105)
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Marlins 1% (97)
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Rockies 0% (57)
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D-Backs 0% (52)
Total votes: 17,291
Seiya Suzuki Still Planning To Wait Out Lockout To Sign With MLB Club
As it has for all major league free agents, the lockout has frozen the signing process for Seiya Suzuki. The Japanese star was posted by his NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp, in late November. That opened a 30-day window for Suzuki to come to an agreement with a big league team, but MLB instituted a lockout just ten days into the posting process.
MLB and NPB agreed to freeze Suzuki’s posting window for the duration of the lockout. Now six weeks into the work stoppage with essentially no progress on key issues, questions had begun to emerge about Suzuki’s future. NPB preseason camps open February 1, and there’d been some thought that he may choose to return to the Carp if MLB and the Players Association don’t make rapid progress over the coming weeks.
Suzuki’s apparently not considering that course of action, however. In an interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic, Suzuki suggested he’s content to wait out an extended work stoppage. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” the outfielder told Baggarly via an interpreter. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”
With ten days of the posting process already elapsed, Suzuki and his representatives at Wasserman will have 20 days after the finalization of a new collective bargaining agreement to hammer out a deal with a big league club. There’ll be no shortage of interest. Baggarly writes that between ten and twelve teams had reached out to Suzuki prior to the lockout. The Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees have all been linked to the right-handed hitter in past reports. Baggarly adds the Rays, Padres and Dodgers as teams expected to be in the mix.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecast Suzuki for a $55MM guarantee over five seasons. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke expressed varying opinions on his upside, but broad consensus was that he could be a well-rounded everyday right fielder in the big leagues. He’s coming off a monster showing at Japan’s top level, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. That huge power production didn’t come with much swing-and-miss. He fanned in only 16.5% of his trips to the dish while walking at a robust 16.3% clip. (R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports provides some batted ball and plate discipline metrics from Suzuki’s last season in NPB).
Suzuki didn’t tip his hand regarding geographical or league preferences for his next destination. Yet he does offer some insight into his motivation for playing in the majors and on which players he models his game. Baggarly’s piece, which also includes tidbits from a few of Suzuki’s former teammates, is worth checking out in full.
Latest On Giants, Seiya Suzuki
The Giants’ interest in outfielder Seiya Suzuki was first noted back in November, and San Francisco has continued to be linked to the longtime Hiroshima Carp slugger. As reported by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, the Giants were one of the teams who conducted video interviews with Suzuki (through Zoom) prior to the start of the lockout.
The 27-year-old Suzuki has a long list of known suitors, as the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Mariners have all reportedly shown interest in his services. Texas has been one of the offseason’s biggest spenders and the Blue Jays (with Kevin Gausman) and Mariners (with Robbie Ray) have also made some aggressive signings. New York and Boston have stayed relatively quiet, perhaps in anticipation of some bigger spending after the lockout once the details of the new CBA are finalized.
That same tactic could be the Giants’ modus operandi for figuring out how to navigate the post-lockout world. It’s not as if San Francisco hasn’t been making moves this winter — the club retained Brandon Belt via the qualifying offer, re-signed both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, and further augmented the rotation by signing Alex Cobb. None of these signings broke the bank, however, and the Giants have only around $126MM committed to their 2022 payroll to date.
This doesn’t mean that the Giants will necessarily use their available payroll space on any huge signings, given the team’s reported reluctance to sign players to nine-figure deals. However, there is still plenty of talent available for well less than a $100MM deal, and Suzuki stands out as one of the more intriguing options available for reasons beyond just cost. MLBTR projected Suzuki for a five-year, $55MM pact, though his market is rather more difficult to project than most free agents, given his lack of MLB experience and now the unusual circumstances over his posting situation.
Like so much else in the baseball world, Suzuki’s free agency has been put on hold by the lockout. The Carp officially posted Suzuki on November 22, so he got roughly ten days into the 30-day posting period before the lockout began. While it’s safe to assume that the Giants and other teams laid some initial groundwork in their online meetings, the 20 days remaining doesn’t leave much margin for error for Suzuki and his reps to find an acceptable contract.
Given the uncertainty surrounding labor talks between the owners and players, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see Suzuki opt to return to Nippon Professional Baseball for another season if the lockout keeps dragging on. As noted by The New York Times’ Brad Lefton, February 1 could serve as something of a deadline for Suzuki, since Japanese teams begin their Spring Training on that date. It is extremely rare for Japanese players to miss any of their training camps for reasons other than injury, so Suzuki could need to decide between NPB or MLB by late January.
From an on-field perspective, there is plenty of logic in a Suzuki/Giants pairing. He could immediately step into regular duty as an everyday right fielder, providing San Francisco’s lineup (and the outfield mix in particular) with a needed right-handed bat. Suzuki has played only as an outfielder for the last seven seasons but he has some history as a third baseman, first baseman, and shortstop, so there’s even a small chance the Giants could experiment with using him around the diamond, as they have so many other versatile players on the roster. Suzuki only turned 27 last August, so he should have plenty of prime years left to help a Giants team that now has designs on winning a World Series as early as next season.
The Giants Need A Right-Handed Bat
While nothing about baseball’s future can be set in stone, the scuttlebutt coming out of San Francisco suggests pretty strongly that Kris Bryant will not be returning in black and orange. Concerns about his defensive efficiency and contract demands have the Giants looking elsewhere. If the price for Bryant drops, however, he still very much fits a need. Bryant and the retired Buster Posey brought the right-handed thump to balance a left-leaning lineup in 2021. Evan Longoria contributed as well, but the veteran third baseman is far from a sure thing, health-wise.
The hallmark of this Giants’ regime is discipline, so despite their need for a right-handed bat, they aren’t likely to overpay to bring Bryant back, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. The Giants appear most comfortable looking for match-up-based value adds, a department where they have succeeded recently with players like Darin Ruf, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Wilmer Flores.
There is one higher-profile free agent they could pursue. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly wrote back in mid-December that the Giants are interested in Japanese import Seiya Suzuki, who should command a contract in a range wherein the Giants feel comfortable. There are many suitors chasing Suzuki, however.
Donovan Solano has been another one of those part-time players for the Giants, but Pavlovic notes that he’s probably “gone for good.” Solano had a productive three seasons with the Giants, even winning a silver slugger award in 2020.
His departure should make room to give Thairo Estrada a real opportunity. After slashing .273/.333/.479 across 132 plate appearances in 2021, there’s certainly reason to think that the 25-year-old Estrada can be a younger, cheaper version of the 34-year-old Solano.
Depth is key in the modern landscape, however. Since Estrada is out of options, the Giants need to be relatively certain about whether or not he can be the guy they need to fill out their bench. The Giants need a right-handed complement to Tommy La Stella at second and someone who can spell Evan Longoria at third. If Estrada is that guy, then the Giants can focus their post-lockout roster-building on adding potential rotation arms to fill out their depth on that end.