Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market
TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.
Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.
Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.
Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.
Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).
A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.
MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.
Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.
Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.
As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.
Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.
MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?
Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.
During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.
One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.
Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.
Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.
For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?
(poll link for app users)
Assuming He Signs With An MLB Team, Where Will Seiya Suzuki Land?
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Red Sox 15% (2,665)
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Mariners 14% (2,390)
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Giants 13% (2,311)
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Yankees 8% (1,464)
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Rangers 6% (1,107)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,061)
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Mets 4% (679)
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Dodgers 3% (522)
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Padres 3% (495)
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Braves 3% (484)
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Cubs 3% (480)
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Angels 3% (477)
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Phillies 3% (452)
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White Sox 2% (318)
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Tigers 2% (278)
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Pirates 2% (278)
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Cardinals 1% (217)
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Guardians 1% (196)
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Orioles 1% (173)
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Brewers 1% (158)
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Astros 1% (154)
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Twins 1% (137)
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Rays 1% (133)
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Reds 1% (125)
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Nationals 1% (114)
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Royals 1% (112)
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A's 1% (105)
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Marlins 1% (97)
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Rockies 0% (57)
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D-Backs 0% (52)
Total votes: 17,291
Seiya Suzuki Still Planning To Wait Out Lockout To Sign With MLB Club
As it has for all major league free agents, the lockout has frozen the signing process for Seiya Suzuki. The Japanese star was posted by his NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp, in late November. That opened a 30-day window for Suzuki to come to an agreement with a big league team, but MLB instituted a lockout just ten days into the posting process.
MLB and NPB agreed to freeze Suzuki’s posting window for the duration of the lockout. Now six weeks into the work stoppage with essentially no progress on key issues, questions had begun to emerge about Suzuki’s future. NPB preseason camps open February 1, and there’d been some thought that he may choose to return to the Carp if MLB and the Players Association don’t make rapid progress over the coming weeks.
Suzuki’s apparently not considering that course of action, however. In an interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic, Suzuki suggested he’s content to wait out an extended work stoppage. “I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” the outfielder told Baggarly via an interpreter. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”
With ten days of the posting process already elapsed, Suzuki and his representatives at Wasserman will have 20 days after the finalization of a new collective bargaining agreement to hammer out a deal with a big league club. There’ll be no shortage of interest. Baggarly writes that between ten and twelve teams had reached out to Suzuki prior to the lockout. The Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees have all been linked to the right-handed hitter in past reports. Baggarly adds the Rays, Padres and Dodgers as teams expected to be in the mix.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecast Suzuki for a $55MM guarantee over five seasons. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke expressed varying opinions on his upside, but broad consensus was that he could be a well-rounded everyday right fielder in the big leagues. He’s coming off a monster showing at Japan’s top level, hitting .317/.433/.639 with 38 home runs across 533 plate appearances. That huge power production didn’t come with much swing-and-miss. He fanned in only 16.5% of his trips to the dish while walking at a robust 16.3% clip. (R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports provides some batted ball and plate discipline metrics from Suzuki’s last season in NPB).
Suzuki didn’t tip his hand regarding geographical or league preferences for his next destination. Yet he does offer some insight into his motivation for playing in the majors and on which players he models his game. Baggarly’s piece, which also includes tidbits from a few of Suzuki’s former teammates, is worth checking out in full.
Latest On Giants, Seiya Suzuki
The Giants’ interest in outfielder Seiya Suzuki was first noted back in November, and San Francisco has continued to be linked to the longtime Hiroshima Carp slugger. As reported by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, the Giants were one of the teams who conducted video interviews with Suzuki (through Zoom) prior to the start of the lockout.
The 27-year-old Suzuki has a long list of known suitors, as the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Mariners have all reportedly shown interest in his services. Texas has been one of the offseason’s biggest spenders and the Blue Jays (with Kevin Gausman) and Mariners (with Robbie Ray) have also made some aggressive signings. New York and Boston have stayed relatively quiet, perhaps in anticipation of some bigger spending after the lockout once the details of the new CBA are finalized.
That same tactic could be the Giants’ modus operandi for figuring out how to navigate the post-lockout world. It’s not as if San Francisco hasn’t been making moves this winter — the club retained Brandon Belt via the qualifying offer, re-signed both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, and further augmented the rotation by signing Alex Cobb. None of these signings broke the bank, however, and the Giants have only around $126MM committed to their 2022 payroll to date.
This doesn’t mean that the Giants will necessarily use their available payroll space on any huge signings, given the team’s reported reluctance to sign players to nine-figure deals. However, there is still plenty of talent available for well less than a $100MM deal, and Suzuki stands out as one of the more intriguing options available for reasons beyond just cost. MLBTR projected Suzuki for a five-year, $55MM pact, though his market is rather more difficult to project than most free agents, given his lack of MLB experience and now the unusual circumstances over his posting situation.
Like so much else in the baseball world, Suzuki’s free agency has been put on hold by the lockout. The Carp officially posted Suzuki on November 22, so he got roughly ten days into the 30-day posting period before the lockout began. While it’s safe to assume that the Giants and other teams laid some initial groundwork in their online meetings, the 20 days remaining doesn’t leave much margin for error for Suzuki and his reps to find an acceptable contract.
Given the uncertainty surrounding labor talks between the owners and players, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see Suzuki opt to return to Nippon Professional Baseball for another season if the lockout keeps dragging on. As noted by The New York Times’ Brad Lefton, February 1 could serve as something of a deadline for Suzuki, since Japanese teams begin their Spring Training on that date. It is extremely rare for Japanese players to miss any of their training camps for reasons other than injury, so Suzuki could need to decide between NPB or MLB by late January.
From an on-field perspective, there is plenty of logic in a Suzuki/Giants pairing. He could immediately step into regular duty as an everyday right fielder, providing San Francisco’s lineup (and the outfield mix in particular) with a needed right-handed bat. Suzuki has played only as an outfielder for the last seven seasons but he has some history as a third baseman, first baseman, and shortstop, so there’s even a small chance the Giants could experiment with using him around the diamond, as they have so many other versatile players on the roster. Suzuki only turned 27 last August, so he should have plenty of prime years left to help a Giants team that now has designs on winning a World Series as early as next season.
The Giants Need A Right-Handed Bat
While nothing about baseball’s future can be set in stone, the scuttlebutt coming out of San Francisco suggests pretty strongly that Kris Bryant will not be returning in black and orange. Concerns about his defensive efficiency and contract demands have the Giants looking elsewhere. If the price for Bryant drops, however, he still very much fits a need. Bryant and the retired Buster Posey brought the right-handed thump to balance a left-leaning lineup in 2021. Evan Longoria contributed as well, but the veteran third baseman is far from a sure thing, health-wise.
The hallmark of this Giants’ regime is discipline, so despite their need for a right-handed bat, they aren’t likely to overpay to bring Bryant back, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. The Giants appear most comfortable looking for match-up-based value adds, a department where they have succeeded recently with players like Darin Ruf, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Wilmer Flores.
There is one higher-profile free agent they could pursue. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly wrote back in mid-December that the Giants are interested in Japanese import Seiya Suzuki, who should command a contract in a range wherein the Giants feel comfortable. There are many suitors chasing Suzuki, however.
Donovan Solano has been another one of those part-time players for the Giants, but Pavlovic notes that he’s probably “gone for good.” Solano had a productive three seasons with the Giants, even winning a silver slugger award in 2020.
His departure should make room to give Thairo Estrada a real opportunity. After slashing .273/.333/.479 across 132 plate appearances in 2021, there’s certainly reason to think that the 25-year-old Estrada can be a younger, cheaper version of the 34-year-old Solano.
Depth is key in the modern landscape, however. Since Estrada is out of options, the Giants need to be relatively certain about whether or not he can be the guy they need to fill out their bench. The Giants need a right-handed complement to Tommy La Stella at second and someone who can spell Evan Longoria at third. If Estrada is that guy, then the Giants can focus their post-lockout roster-building on adding potential rotation arms to fill out their depth on that end.
Rangers Have Interest In Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki‘s posting window has been paused with the MLB lockout ongoing, but whenever the current transaction freeze is lifted, the star Hiroshima Carp outfielder will have just shy of three weeks to field interest from Major League teams. Reports have already indicated that a trio of AL East clubs — Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays — are among the most interested parties, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently wrote that the Rangers like Suzuki as well.
As Brad Lefton of the New York Times wrote a couple weeks back, agent Joel Wolfe told reporters in Japan in late November that at least eight teams had expressed serious interest and that there had already been some virtual meetings conducted. In-person meetings with interested parties figure follow, post-lockout.
The extent of Texas’ interest in the 27-year-old slugger isn’t clear, though he’s an obvious on-paper fit. Adolis Garcia and offseason signee Kole Calhoun figure to be locked into a pair of outfield spots, but there’s a corner-outfield spot still largely up for grabs. At present, any of Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Leody Taveras or Eli White could vie for time there, but Suzuki would be a higher-profile offensive upgrade following what has already been a frenzied offseason of additions from president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young.
For those unfamiliar, Suzuki has been one of Japan’s most-productive hitters for several years now and is considered among the top talents in the country. Suzuki posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.
Suzuki is younger than recent NPB signees such as Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo were when they made the transition to North American ball, and he’s considerably more highly regarded than both. While multiple team evaluators told MLBTR prior to his posting that Suzuki won’t be a regular option in center, he’s still seen as an above-average option in right field — an opinion that was only reinforced last week when Suzuki won his fifth NPB Gold Glove Award for his defense in right. Even if he doesn’t stack up as an elite outfielder, he ought to more than hold his own as better-than-average option in either left or right for interested teams.
The question for the Rangers at this point is just how much more the team has left in the tank. The half-billion dollars invested in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien grabbed the majority of headlines, but the Rangers also spent another $61.2MM combined on Jon Gray and the aforementioned Kole Calhoun. That said, even with all those splashes, the Rangers’ projected 2022 payroll is currently about $127MM — well shy of 2017’s record $165MM Opening Day payroll. Another outfielder would certainly be prudent, but Texas also still has multiple holes in the rotation and the bullpen.
Grant suggests that the to-date flurry of activity makes it unlikely the Rangers will spend to the levels necessary to add someone such as Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, either of whom would figure to command considerably heavier annual salaries than Suzuki (even if Suzuki may receive a larger number of years, based on his age). Still, if the plan is to focus more resources on pitching at this point, there’s no shortage of lower-cost corner options (e.g. Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario) — and the team, of course, could just stay in-house for outfield needs.
Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Aggressive Suitors For Seiya Suzuki
On November 22, Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, freeing him up to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams for 30 days. However, it was reported that the recent implementation of a lockout that has led to a transaction freeze has also frozen Suzuki’s 30-day clock. That means that, at the conclusion of the lockout, he will still have around 20 days to work out a deal with an MLB team. At that point, there’s a decent chance of Suzuki winding up in the AL East, according to a report from Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal. “One major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki,” McAdam writes.
The fact that Suzuki is garnering interest is not surprising, given his talents. Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB lineup, while also providing solid right field defence. Over nine seasons in the NPB, he has hit .315/.414/.570, with that production only growing over time.
The Red Sox make for a fairly logical landing spot, especially when considering the recent trade of Hunter Renfroe. Suzuki could potentially fill the right field vacancy left by Renfroe, with Verdugo manning left field and center field covered by some combination of Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez or Jackie Bradley Jr., who was part of the return in the Renfroe deal. That trade seemed to be about adding defence by subtracting offence, but the addition of Suzuki could be a way of replacing that lost offence. Kyle Schwarber, who was acquired by the Red Sox last year and would be a logical Renfroe replacement for 2022, is reportedly looking for a three-year, $60MM deal, meaning Suzuki could potentially be about half as costly on an annual basis, if MLBTR’s prediction is correct.
The fit with the Yankees is a bit less smooth, given that they have a number of outfield options already on hand. On paper, the outfield consists of Joey Gallo in left, Aaron Hicks in center and Aaron Judge in right, with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton available for the occasional appearance on the grass and prospect Estevan Florial on hand as depth. However, they may be reluctant to rely on Hicks as an everyday option, given that he’s now 32 years old and has dealt with injury setbacks in recent years, including only playing 32 games in 2021. Although he did play 54 of the team’s 60 games in the shortened 2020 season, his last significant action over a full season was 137 games in 2018. Judge, Gallo and Suzuki all have seen limited action in center field, making it at least possible for the club to have all three across the outfield at times. However, none of them are really considered an everyday option at the position, making it something of an awkward arrangement over a full season.
Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays also seem to have their outfield accounted for on paper, with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk all pencilled in. However, it was recently reported that the Jays had discussions with the Brewers about a trade centered around Grichuk and Bradley Jr., before the latter was traded to the Red Sox last week. It would appear the club is open to moving on from Grichuk and coming up with a different outfield arrangement. The Blue Jays had a potent offence in 2021 but have since lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers, perhaps motivating them to look to Suzuki as a way to replace Semien’s bat. That would still leave them with a weakened infield, however, as the departure of Semien leaves the club with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal pencilled into second and third base.
Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning
MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached. Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed this scenario recently and seemed to point to its likelihood.
There’s a ten-day span from Suzuki’s posting tomorrow until that potential lockout day. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that a transaction freeze would indeed apply to Suzuki as well, meaning no team could sign him while the freeze is in place. It had been previously reported that MLB and NPB were discussing an agreement wherein Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused during the freeze. That agreement seems to have been reached, as Sherman also reports that Suzuki’s 30-day clock will not move during a lockout. That means Suzuki is going to have to decide between hastily working out a deal in just over a week or dealing with the uncertainty of waiting out this winter’s labor strife and then having around 20 days of negotiating time on the other side of that.
Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of the lineup for an MLB team, along with providing a strong arm and competent right field defense. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM. Since the reports that he was going to be posted, Suzuki has already been connected in rumors to the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Mariners.
Latest On Seiya Suzuki
Nov. 17: Suzuki is going to be posted next week, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That would give him approximately one week to negotiate with MLB teams before the CBA expires on December 1.
Nov. 16: It had already been reported that the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were planning on posting outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League teams this winter, and now the team has confirmed those reports. After the team made the announcement earlier today, Suzuki spoke to the media about his planned transition, as relayed by Nikkan Sports and Yahoo Japan. (Both links in Japanese.)
Although the club confirmed that Suzuki will soon be posted, it doesn’t seem as though the posting has been made official just yet. This is potentially an important detail because once the posting is made official, it starts a 30-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Suzuki and his representatives. If that clock runs out without Suzuki having signed an MLB deal, he will return to the Carp.
This year, that has the potential to coincide with the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could reportedly lead to a transaction freeze. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic addressed this issue, reporting that “MLB and NPB were close to an agreement in which that clock would be stopped in the event of an industry lockout.” The wording is vague there, making it unclear if the agreement is actually in place or not, but that would be another noteworthy detail in this saga. Hypothetically, even if Suzuki were posted tomorrow, just two weeks would transpire before December 1 and the expiring of the CBA. If a transaction freeze were then implemented, Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused, leaving him with more than two weeks of negotiating time after a new CBA is implemented and transactions are resumed. Of course, all of that is contingent on that MLB-NPB agreement having been finalized.
Suzuki, 27, has been one of the best players in NPB in recent years and figures to have a robust market once the posting is made official. MLBTR recently ranked him 20th on the annual list of top free agents, noting that he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat with competent defense, and projecting he could land a contract of $55MM over five years. Since rumors of his posting emerged, he’s already been connected to the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM.
Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation
The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.
Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.
Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.
[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]
While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.
Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager‘s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.
Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.
Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.
The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.
Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.
As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.
Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.