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Quick Hits: Free Agents, A’s, Padres, Draft

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Here’s the latest from around baseball as we wrap up the weekend…

  • Will the 2016-17 offseason feature “the worst baseball free agent class in decades”?  Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan thinks so, and the thin number of upper-tier talents available opens the door for the likes of Yoenis Cespedes or Josh Reddick to greatly increase their asking prices if they can build on their hot starts.  Jose Bautista’s slow start shouldn’t hurt his chances of a nine-figure contract given how teams value his “old-man game” built around plate discipline, even if Bautista could end up getting closer to $100MM than his desired $150MM contract.  Even in the thin market, Passan feels Edwin Encarnacion and particularly Carlos Gomez have thus far hurt their value thanks to slow starts.
  • The qualifying offer as we know it may not exist if a new collective bargaining agreement is settled before the offseason begins, though if it remains similar, Passan figures Dexter Fowler, Francisco Cervelli, Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos could be in position to receive a QO from their respective teams.
  • Rich Hill could even get a qualifying offer if he keeps up his strong season, which speaks to the weakness of the free agent pitching class is with Stephen Strasburg off the board.  Passan thinks Hill could ultimately have a better chance of being traded than issued a QO, however.  The relief pitching market is much stronger than the starting pitching market, as Passan feels Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman could both top Mariano Rivera’s $15MM average annual value from earlier this decade.
  • The thin free agent pitching market could lead to more trades for arms this summer, as ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) notes in his listing of eight contenders who could deal for pitching and 10 starters who could be shopped.  Bowden’s list of starters including two Athletics (Hill and Sonny Gray) and three Padres (James Shields, Drew Pomeranz and Andrew Cashner).  The A’s have been adamant about keeping Gray, though with his rough start, Bowden wonders if the club could decide to move him while he still has value.  As for the Padres, a scout tells Bowden that of the three San Diego pichers, he would prefer to have Pomeranz, which is a sign of just how much Pomeranz has upped his trade value with his impressive start — a 1.80 ERA and 51 strikeouts through 40 innings.
  • In another subscriber-only piece from Bowden, he gets input from various executives around the league about what improvements could be made to the amateur draft.

West Notes: Rockies, Garcia, Hill, Gray

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The Rockies have already burned through much of their rotation depth, Nick Groke and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post write. Injuries, poor performance, and roster pressures have conspired to leave the club scrambling for arms despite seemingly entering the year with plenty of volume (to go with plenty of questions, of course). It remains to be seen whether former top prospect Eddie Butler will get a crack at a starting gig, as he’s slated for pen duty initially, but he’ll be one of several arms that the Rockies will need to contribute if the club is to stay in contention.

Here’s more from out west:

  • Dodgers right-hander Yimi Garcia still hasn’t picked up a baseball since landing on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis this past weekend, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group. While Garcia has yet to undergo an MRI, that’ll be the next step for him if he doesn’t improve in the relatively near future. The 25-year-old Garcia has a surrendered three runs through 8 1/3 innings this season, though he’s struck out just four batters after whiffing 68 men in 56 2/3 innings last season.
  • The Athletics have been rewarded handsomely thus far for their roll of the dice on veteran journeyman Rich Hill, and ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield believes that Oakland will continue to receive good work from the lefty. As Schoenfield explains, Hill has continued to show elite swing-and-miss numbers with his fastball, which he pairs with a frequently used curve. Indeed, Hill has picked up right where he left off last year: though his walks have crept up a bit, he is striking out 12.8 batters per nine and inducing grounders on more than half of the balls put in play against him, with metrics supporting his 2.42 ERA in 26 frames.
  • Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney wonders whether there could be a “perfect storm” that allows the Athletics to cash in on ace Sonny Gray. It’s looking like a seller’s market, both at the deadline and next winter, and Gray could stand out. It’s far from clear whether the A’s will have strong interest in striking a trade, of course, but it’s easy to imagine widespread demand. And as Olney notes, this summer could well prove a high-water mark for the righty’s value.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Beltran, Royals, Gray, Astros

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Here’s the latest from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, via his weekly Full Count video…

  • Carlos Beltran wants to keep playing beyond this season and there’s a chance he could return to the Royals in 2017.  Kansas City will have a vacancy at DH next season since Kendrys Morales is a free agent, and the Royals made a push to sign Beltran in the 2013-14 offseason before the Yankees boosted their offer to include a third guaranteed year.  Beltran, who turns 39 tomorrow, is still swinging a strong bat, and it’s possible he could better preserve himself in a regular DH role — Alex Rodriguez’s presence in New York has kept Beltran mostly in right field as a Yankee.
  • Aside from Ian Kennedy, the Royals also targeted free agent hurlers Zack Greinke, Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake as good fits for their rotation last winter.  “All throw changeups, all field their positions well and, most importantly, all command their fastballs,” Rosenthal noted, and GM Dayton Moore told him that pitchers who tend to fall behind in the count didn’t mesh with the Royals’ style.  K.C. ended up signing Kennedy to a five-year, $70MM contract, which was less than the five years/$80MM Leake and Chen respectively received from the Cardinals and Marlins and obviously well below Greinke’s $206.5MM megadeal with the Diamondbacks.  (Leake, unlike the other three, didn’t have qualifying offer draft compensation to his services.)  In the early going, Kennedy has been outstanding as a Royal, posting a 1.35 ERA over his first three starts.
  • The Athletics’ good start will make it less likely that Sonny Gray is traded, though Rosenthal notes that even if Gray was shopped and a team was willing to give up “a ton” for the star righty, the A’s would still face a tough decision about pulling the trigger on a deal.  Gray will become eligible for arbitration next winter, and though his arb costs may eventually price him out of Oakland’s comfort zone, Gray would still certainly be “affordable” for the A’s in 2017 (and really a bargain if he continues to post ace-type numbers).
  • In another video from Rosenthal, he notes that the Astros might eventually need to make a trade to add some velocity to their rotation.  Houston’s starters entered today with the lowest average velocity (87.8 mph) of any club in baseball, with the Orioles next to last at 90.1 mph.  The rotation woes are just one of many problems plaguing the Astros right now as the team is off to a rough 5-12 start.

AL West Notes: Weaver, McCullers, Gray, Beltre, Fielder

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Angels starting pitcher Jered Weaver has been diagnosed with mild degenerative changes in his cervical spine, tweets Mike Digiovanna of the L.A. Times. The cervical portion of the spine includes the upper back and neck. Weaver will still be bumped from his next scheduled start, but he’s not expected to be shut down (tweet). The soft-tossing righty averaged just 83 mph with his fastball last season and was throwing even softer in his spring work. He’s scheduled to see a spine specialist to decide next steps.

Here’s more from the AL West:

  • An MRI has revealed no damage in Lance McCullers sore right shoulder, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros’ starter threw a career high 164 innings last season, and the club has plans to limit his innings. Carefully addressing this current injury seems like a good way to manage McCuller innings while looking after his health. As such, he may not open the season on the big league roster.
  • “Everyone” inquired about Athletics ace Sonny Gray this winter, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Red Sox were apparently the first to pick up the phones on the day after the World Series ended. No deals were close per Heyman. Oakland leadership has been vocal about holding onto Gray, although the club is also known to be very open minded about looking for roster upgrades.
  • While there is a gap in talks between the Rangers and Adrian Beltre, it’s thought that the two sides are motivated to find a middle ground, tweets Heyman. Beltre, soon-to-be 37, is in the final year of his current contract with Texas. Heyman speculates that the Angels could be a top suitor for Beltre if he reaches the open market. If an extension isn’t reached soon, Beltre’s performance this season could be the difference between a moderate one-year deal and a sizable multi-year offer.
  • The Rangers tried to sign Austin Jackson for about $4MM before pivoting to Ian Desmond, tweets Heyman. Texas’ need was in left field with Jackson preferring to remain an up-the-middle player. He ultimately signed with the White Sox for $5MM.
  • Slugger Prince Fielder has been diagnosed with sleep apnea, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. He will use a mask and breathing apparatus to combat the disorder. The player and club are hopeful that better rest will translate to a more successful season. Fielder does not plan to undergo the painful and complicated jaw reconstructive surgery used to cure sleep apnea. Mike Napoli underwent that particular procedure prior to the 2015 season.

A’s Notes: Coghlan, Crisp, Gray

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With the current focus on teams “tanking” seasons, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) observes that the Athletics’ run over the last two decades is all the more remarkable since the team has never entirely torn things down to rebuild.  Last season was the first time since 1997 that Oakland won fewer than 74 games, and even in the wake of 2015’s disappointment, the A’s still made offseason moves with an eye on returning to contention in 2016.  Here’s some more from the Athletics’ camp…

  • Chris Coghlan is looking forward to his new role as a super-utility man, the newly-acquired Athletic told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).  “When I was younger, my ego, I was like, ‘I want to play one position,’ but as you grow, to be able to play different positions really helps the team, so I’ve learned to embrace it….Zo [Ben Zobrist] set the bar.  There were people before, but Zo made it sexy and and cool to be the utility guy.  Before, it meant you aren’t an everyday guy.  Now it’s the cool thing.  So mad props to him,” Coghlan said.
  • Despite the numerous injuries that have set back his career, Coco Crisp tells CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich that he has no plans on retiring.  “Really, who wants to stop playing? It’s been everybody’s dream for so long.” Crisp said.  “I do enjoy my family, my kids, and I want to be there for them.  And I also want them to be able to see their father, (when they’re) at an older age, play ball.  And experience some of the joys of being a ballplayer’s kid.”  Crisp said he would love to keep playing in Oakland past this season, the last guaranteed year on his contract.  Crisp has a $13MM vesting option for 2017 based on amassing either 130 games played or 550 plate appearances this year, though either threshold will be hard to achieve given both his injury history and the Athletics’ logjam of outfield/DH options.
  • In a piece about young pitchers who are good extension candidates, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards highlights Sonny Gray’s case for a multi-year deal.  Trade rumors have often swirled around Gray since it has been assumed that the A’s can’t afford him once he hits free agency after the 2019 season, and Edwards notes that an extension wouldn’t make sense if Oakland plans on dealing Gray within the next year (the star righty becomes arbitration-eligible next winter).  In the short term, however, Edwards argues that a Gray extension helps the Athletics continue to stay competitive and also retains Gray’s trade value.  In this case, both the A’s and potential trade suitors would be gaining cost certainty on Gray through his arb years.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Chi Chi, Upton, Gray, Span

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Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine and A’s executive Billy Beane appeared on the MLB Network Radio show with Jim Bowden to discuss offseason rumors (tweets 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Levine spoke broadly about Texas’ approach in free agency, saying “we’ll stay in touch with all the agents for the existing free agents. If something does fall into our lap, we’ll be poised to strike.” Reports suggest the Rangers have some budgetary constraints in play, but the roster is already is decent shape.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Rangers have not offered pitching prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez to the Marlins for outfielder Marcell Ozuna. There is “no truth to the rumor,” per Levine, although he does confirm that the Rangers have talked shop with the Marlins and other clubs. Earlier today, we heard that Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds hoped to keep Ozuna with the Marlins.
  • Levine and associates are long time admirers of Justin Upton. The aforementioned budget constraints restrict the club from making a long term commitment. However, they’ll continue to monitor the status of his market.
  • The A’s have “resisted some pretty aggressive suitors” for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, per Beane. “We’ve been adamant with teams that we want to hang on to Gray.” He’s coming off arguably his best season in which he posted a 2.3 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and a 53 percent ground ball rate over 208 innings. Throughout his three season career, the 26-year-old has relied on inducing weak contact to keep runners off the bases. He’s under club control for four more seasons.
  • While outsiders often consider January to be a slow baseball month, Beane maintains that it can be very productive. The A’s are still trying to improve the club via trade. It’s also possible a free agent or two could slip through the cracks.
  • The Mets had interest in signing Denard Span before he agreed to terms with the Giants, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Per GM Sandy Alderson, payroll wasn’t a deterrent. “The biggest issue for us was the injury.” The Mets have not had a splashy offseason, but the additions of Neil Walker, Alejandro De Aza, and Asdrubal Cabrera feel similar to those of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe during the season. While Johnson and Uribe were just role players, their arrival on the roster coincided with a surge in the standings. In particular, the addition of De Aza gives the club flexibility to take advantage of any free agents looking for a pillow contract with a contender – perhaps like crowd favorite Yoenis Cespedes.

Bay Area Notes: Giants, A’s, Zobrist, Petit, Gray

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Here’s the latest from both Bay Area teams…

  • The Giants appear to be one of three finalists for Ben Zobrist’s services but they may be at a disadvantage on two fronts, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes.  The Mets and Nationals are located closer to Zobrist’s home in Tennessee, and they have openings at Zobrist’s preferred position of second base.  With Joe Panik already locked into the keystone, the Giants were looking at Zobrist as a left fielder.
  • Also from Baggarly’s piece, he notes that while the Giants were indeed interested in Joakim Soria, they were far from a “finalist” for his services.  The bullpen is not an area of major concern for San Francisco and they were simply doing due diligence on Soria due to good evaluations.  Soria ended up agreeing to a deal with the Royals yesterday.
  • Giants GM Bobby Evans told reporters (including Baggarly) that the team wasn’t ruling out bringing Yusmeiro Petit or Hector Sanchez back after the two were non-tendered last week.  Petit’s non-tender was a bit of a surprise given his very solid work in three seasons as a swingman with the Giants, but Evans explained that “there could be a scenario where we sign a second starter and that could move Chris Heston into a long man role. We don’t know that yet. So to tender Yusmeiro at that point would have been predetermining who our long man is and we weren’t quite ready to do that.”
  • The Athletics need to move fast if they intend to sign Sonny Gray to an extension, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  This winter may be the last chance the A’s have to lock Gray up beyond their remaining four years of control while his price tag is still manageable.  That said, “manageable” will still be a huge commitment for the low-payroll Athletics, though trading him or letting him walk in free agency would also come at a cost to the team’s hopes to contend.  Extending Gray is “the most important thing they could possibly do if they’re in it to win it,” an AL scout tells Slusser. “If you’re building for the long run, that’s what they have to do. You’ve got to try to develop and keep top-end starters, and if you can’t develop it, you have to hit a home run in a trade. At his age? Yeah, you need to sign Sonny Gray through at least two years of free agency, maybe even three.”  Oakland management has reiterated several times over that it has no plans to trade Gray, despite interest from several teams.
  • From Gray’s perspective, he tells Slusser that he “wouldn’t mind staying in Oakland a long time….I’ve talked about it with my agent, and I’d definitely be comfortable staying there. And if I don’t, there’s nothing wrong with that, either. If I get to the point where I’m in that position, it’s kind of a win-win situation.”
  • The A’s didn’t have much interest in Trevor Cahill before he signed with the Cubs, CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich reports.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Trade

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Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.

  • The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
  • The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
  • Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
  • The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.

Beane, Forst Stress That Gray Unlikely To Be Traded

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NOV. 10: “We don’t intend to trade Sonny Gray,” Athletics GM David Forst told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford today. “Not for a lack of interest, and not because he’s not a great pitcher that a lot of teams want. But we really feel like he’s part of our future, as well. As soon as you trade a young, healthy really good pitcher, you’re looking for another one.”

NOV. 4: While many fans whose teams are seeking top-tier pitching this winter have dreamed of prying right-hander Sonny Gray away from the Athletics, Oakland president of baseball operations Billy Beane tells Peter Gammons that he “just cannot see us trading Gray or [Josh] Reddick.”

The A’s have earned the reputation of being willing to trade anyone, and nothing exemplifies that more than last winter’s Josh Donaldson swap with the Blue Jays. Skeptics will point to quotes last year which indicated that Donaldson wouldn’t be dealt, but those came from an unnamed source as opposed to on-record comments from the club’s top decision-maker.

“Trading Gray is not something I think we could do,” Beane explained to Gammons. “We have to put a representative product on the field, and continue to dream we get a ballpark. We should have good pitching, with Gray, Jarrod Parker, Kendall Graveman, Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, maybe Sean Manaea during the season.” While those comments don’t 100 percent eliminate the possibility of moving Gray or Reddick, they should serve to temper some rumors surrounding their names.

Gray, who turns 26 on Saturday, would command a king’s ransom in a trade anyhow. With two years and 61 days of big league service, Gray isn’t yet arbitration eligible and won’t be a free agent until the completion of the 2019 season. Four years of team control, the first of which would come near the league minimum, for a pitcher that has worked to a 2.88 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate would rank among the most valuable commodities in the game.

Reddick, on the other hand, is more of a conventional trade candidate, as the 28-year-old (29 in February) outfielder will be a free agent following the 2016 campaign. However, this is the second time that Beane has gone on record as saying he doesn’t plan to trade Reddick. Beane, in fact, discussed Reddick as a possible extension candidate when speaking to the Bay Area media following the regular season’s completion.

Reddick is a .251/.315/.439 hitter in four seasons with the A’s, though that includes what now looks to have been outlier season in 2013 when his bat was surprisingly unproductive (91 OPS+). Defensive metrics were somewhat down on Reddick in 2015, though he dealt with an oblique strain early in the season and also battled several knee injuries back in 2014, which could have lingered into the 2015 campaign. He comes with an outstanding defensive reputation, however, ranking ninth in the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved and 10th in Ultimate Zone Rating since being traded to Oakland prior to the 2012 campaign. Reddick has his flaws — namely a weak bat against same-handed pitching — but he’s a highly valuable player that could be in for a significant contract after the 2016 season if the A’s aren’t able to work out a long-term deal prior to that point.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.
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