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Tanner Houck

Latest On The Red Sox Rotation

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Rotation plans for the Red Sox in the near term have come into focus recently, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that right-hander Tanner Houck is likely to start the club’s game against the Orioles on Wednesday, though that could change if he’s needed out of the bullpen before then.

This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as reports ahead of the activation of righty Brayan Bello from the 15-day IL last week indicated that the club could go with a six-man rotation at least through the off-day on this coming Thursday before transitioning to a five-man rotation that would likely leave Houck as the odd man out. Still, Cotillo goes on to note that the club does have other options: righty Nick Pivetta could be moved to the bullpen instead, or Bello, who was shelled for five runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in his first start coming off the IL, could be demoted to Triple-A.

Of the six members of the Red Sox rotation, Houck has actually been the best starter this season in terms of performance. In 21 innings of work, Houck has posted a solid 4.29 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and a nearly matching 4.26 FIP. His strikeout (25.5%) and walk (9.3%) rates are largely in line with his career norms, as is his BABIP (.283). The most significant change from previous seasons for Houck in the early going this year is his groundball rate. Houck entered the season with a career groundball rate of 49.3%, but in his four starts this season, that figure has jumped all the way up to 58.9%, good for sixth in the majors among players with at least 20 IP.

While Houck’s start this season is encouraging, Cotillo notes that his success in a multi-inning relief role last year, when he posted a 2.70 ERA in 43 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, makes him a natural choice for the move. Meanwhile, Smith notes that Pivetta has resisted suggestions he could be ticketed for the bullpen after some early season struggles. Pivetta has yet to finish the sixth inning this season in a start and has posted a 4.58 ERA over 19 2/3 innings this season in spite of a deflated .275 BABIP that helps to explain his more worrisome 5.19 FIP.

Even in the event that Houck is ultimately sent to the bullpen, Boston brass will have to make another tough decision when lefty James Paxton returns from the IL, which he could do fairly soon. Paxton, Cotillo notes, has never appeared out of the bullpen in his career and struggled badly out of the bullpen in a rehab stint this season, allowing seven runs in less than an inning of work. With Paxton an unlikely bullpen candidate, the Red Sox are likely to once again be left to decide between a six-man rotation and bumping either Pivetta or Bello from the group when the veteran lefty is ready to be activated.

East Notes: Fried, Bello, Red Sox, Donaldson, Bader, Garcia

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Left-hander Max Fried is slated to make his return to the mound on Monday, when the Braves open up a three-game series against the Padres.  Atlanta manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including David O’Brien of The Athletic) that Fried will be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to the game.  Fried will end up missing only 16 days due to a strained left hamstring, as he went to the IL on April 4 but with a backdated placement of April 1, so ensure a quicker return as long as the hamstring issue turned out to be pretty minimal.

With Fried and Kyle Wright now healthy, Atlanta’s rotation is more or less back in its expected form, with Fried, Wright, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton comprising the top four, and Bryce Elder pitching well in a bid to cement his spot.  The Braves had planned to use Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd as the fifth starter heading into the season, but while the two rookies have struggled against MLB hitters, while Elder has an impressive 1.53 ERA over three starts and 17 2/3 innings.

More from both the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Brayan Bello is also expected to be activated from the 15-day IL on Monday, as the Red Sox righty will make his season debut in a start against the Angels.  Bello dealt with some forearm tightness early in Spring Training, which delayed his ramp-up enough that a short IL stint was necessary to open the season.  With Bello expected to be a regular starter, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier suggested that the Sox might utilize a six-man rotation until their next off-day on April 27, in order to give a bit more rest to a pitching staff that hasn’t many good results early in the season.  Tanner Houck might ultimately be the odd man out of the rotation, and while Houck told Speier that he would prefer to stay as a starter, “I don’t have much say over it.  We’ll have conversations, but I can only go out there and compete and put my best foot forward and continue to fight for the spot.”
  • The Yankees are likely to activate Josh Donaldson from the 10-day IL on Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone told ESPN’s Marly Rivera and other reporters.  Donaldson will play in a minor league rehab game on Tuesday and then take the field against the Angels on Wednesday.  A right hamstring strain sent Donaldson (retroactively) to the injured list on April 6, and his return will provide some relief to a lineup that is missing Giancarlo Stanton and Harrison Bader.  In Bader’s case, he has been working out and taking part in baseball activities at Yankee Stadium, and Boone indicated that a minor league rehab assignment might begin this week as Bader makes his way back from a left oblique strain.
  • X-rays were negative on Avisail Garcia’s right wrist after the Marlins outfielder was hit while swinging at a pitch in today’s game.  Jesus Sanchez had to replace Garcia to finish the rest of the plate appearance, but Garcia looks to have avoided serious injury, even if the Marlins might hold him out a day or two to monitor the wrist.  After a rough first season in Miami, Garcia’s struggles have continued in 2023, as he has hit only .162/.225/.270 over his first 41 plate appearances.

Latest On The Red Sox’ Rotation

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The Red Sox’ rotation will likely be down several starters to begin the season, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that each of Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Paxton had already been trending in this direction, but Whitlock and Bello now join him in missing at least the beginning of the 2023 season. Cotillo notes that Whitlock, who got a late start while recovering from hip surgery is expected to be ready sometime in mid-April. Bello, who battled forearm tightness early in camp, should follow shortly thereafter. Paxton isn’t expected to return until May at the earliest.

The Red Sox announced this week that offseason signee Corey Kluber would get the nod on Opening Day. Left-hander Chris Sale, eyeing for a rebound campaign after a dreadful run of injuries in recent seasons, is slated to start the second game of the season. Righties Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and likely Kutter Crawford should round out the quintet to begin the year.

With Whitlock and Bello both expected to return by the end of the season’s first month, though, the rotation will likely be reconfigured early in the regular season. Crawford, who struggled to a 5.47 ERA in 77 2/3 frames last season, figures to be the odd man out once either Whitlock or Bello is able to reclaim a  spot in the starting staff. In that case, Crawford would figure to serve as optionable rotation depth alongside Josh Winckowski.

Assuming everyone remains healthy by the time both Whitlock and Bello are ready to return, the Sox will be faced with a decision between Houck and Pivetta for the final rotation spot. Pivetta made a league-leading 33 starts last season and paced the team with 179 2/3 innings pitched. That impressive volume came with mediocre results, however, as the right-hander posted a slightly below-average 4.56 ERA during the 2022 campaign.

Houck, meanwhile, has been a successful pitcher both as a starter (3.22 ERA in 92 1/3 innings) and a reliever (2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings) to this point in his career. The former first-rounder has long been seen as a potential rotation piece at Fenway, but the Red Sox were noncommittal early in the offseason when asked about his role. Houck also had back surgery late last season and ended the year on the injured list after making 28 of his 32 appearances as a reliever. It’s easy to see why the Sox would be intrigued by the idea of Houck upping his workload this year and even getting some more run in the starting staff, but he’s coming off a 60-inning season that ended in back surgery; a jump to a full starter’s workload would be something of a surprise.

Of course, this needn’t be a strict either-or proposition. Situations like this tend to work themselves out, often as injuries pop up elsewhere on a pitching staff. Getting Houck some early rotation work and perhaps moving him to a multi-inning relief/sixth starter role once everyone is healthy would be a good means of managing his workload as he ramps up from last year’s 60 innings.

Even if the plan is to ride Houck as a starter as long as possible, that doesn’t mean Pivetta will be decidedly forced out of the rotation. Given that each of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Kluber and especially Paxton have some notable injuries within the past few seasons, it’s likely the Sox will need to shuffle through quite a few starters. All six of their top options figure to spend ample time in the rotation this summer, and they’ll also have depth options like Crawford, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata as candidates for rotation work down in the minors.

Red Sox, Tanner Houck Discussed Extension Last Year

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At some point last year, the Red Sox and right-hander Tanner Houck had some talks about an extension, though it doesn’t seem much progress was made. “Conversations, but nothing came of it,” Houck told Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “We’re pretty happy with where we’re at right now. There’s no reason to rush into anything.”

Houck, 27 in June, has pitched in the past three major league seasons, oscillating between the rotation and the bullpen but generally getting good results either way. Overall, he’s tossed 146 innings with a 3.02 ERA, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% of them and getting grounders at a 49.3% clip. Getting into the splits, he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and 2.68 as a reliever. He’s actually racked up more strikeouts out of the rotation, a 28.5% rate compared to a 25.9% rate out of the bullpen. But his .300 BABIP as a starter is a bit above his .274 mark as a reliever, and his 70.5% strand rate out of the rotation is a few ticks below his 77.3% mark from the ’pen.

In addition to that strong body of work, Houck also comes with the pedigree of being a first round pick, selected 24th overall in 2017. He is currently between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning he’s still shy of qualifying for arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2027 season, when he’ll be 31. There would be some risk in committing significant dollars to Houck since he fought lingering back issues last year and ultimately required surgery, but all pitchers generally have some injury flags on their profiles and there’s usually a point at which clubs are willing to take the risk.

It’s unknown exactly what kind of contract structures were floated, but the talks didn’t advance enough for the Sox to put forth a formal offer. “We never really even got that far,” Houck said. “(It was) a conversation. We talked here and there.”

It’s possible that the Red Sox were looking at Houck the same way they viewed Garrett Whitlock. A Rule 5 pick of the Yankees, Whitlock made his MLB debut in 2021 with 73 1/3 innings out of the Boston bullpen with a 1.96 ERA. Going into 2022, there was some consideration of returning Whitlock to the rotation since he had spent much of his minor league time there. In April of last year, before the campaign really got going, the two sides agreed on an $18.75MM extension that covered his remaining years of control, while also potentially giving the Sox control over two free agent years via club options. If Whitlock eventually emerges as a viable rotation candidate, that will turn into a bargain for the club, given the salaries typically earned by free agent starters. But it was also understandable why Whitlock would want to lock in that guaranteed money, since he was a relative late bloomer, just about to turn 26 at that time.

Houck is in a relatively similar position, showing plenty of potential but still not fully established and with huge paydays still a few years away. It doesn’t seem as though the ship has sailed on an extension, with Houck expressing openness. “If the opportunity on both sides is right, I’d be willing to, but both sides have to feel comfortable with an agreement,” he said. “I think it really depends on the individual person,” he elaborated. “If you’re willing to bet on yourself and believe that you can sign that bigger contract, then take the shot, in my opinion, if you’re a betting man. If you’re not and you like the security, it’s perfectly fine. There’s nothing wrong with it either way, but as an individual, I think you have to be okay with it.”

For 2023, Houck seems to have a blocked path to the rotation for now, though there will be many variables. Chris Sale and James Paxton could be at the front of the rotation, though neither has pitched much in the past three years due to injury. Corey Kluber is coming off a healthy season with the Rays but had three injury-marred years prior to that. Nick Pivetta has been the most reliable of the bunch though his status is now a little murky as he’s dropping out of the World Baseball Classic, per Cotillo, as he recently had COVID for a third time and isn’t recovering as hoped. Then there’s Whitlock and his nine career starts and younger guys like Brayan Bello and Brandon Walter.

The club has said they plan to stretch Houck out this spring but perhaps move him into bullpen role if he doesn’t have a spot in the rotation by Opening Day. Given all the uncertainty in the rotation, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get pencilled in as the starter at some point this year. “It’s not my decision. I’d love to start; that’s what I’ve done my whole career,” Houck recently told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ve got to help the team win in whatever way possible.”

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

Red Sox Notes: Barnes, Bleier, Paxton, Bello, Pivetta

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The Red Sox made a change to their bullpen earlier this week, shipping out Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Richard Bleier. Boston reportedly paid down around $5.5MM to facilitate that deal, a testament to Barnes’ struggles since he signed a two-year, $18.75MM extension in July 2021.

That trade came a few days after the Sox had designated Barnes for assignment, a move that registered as a surprise even given the righty’s uneven past year and a half. The UCONN product had spent his entire career with the Red Sox since being drafted in the first round in 2011, and he indicated he was taken aback by the DFA.

“It was a complete blindside,” Barnes told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive) about being taken off the 40-man roster. While he indicated he doesn’t have any animosity about his time in Boston, Barnes also intimated he wasn’t enamored with his usage last season. By the second week of May, he was deployed mostly in low-leverage situations. Between May 6 and 30, he was called upon ten times. Seven of those contests saw the Sox either trailing late or leading a blowout contest, with Barnes relegated to mop-up work.

“We got to a point in the season where we were either blowing people out or losing a game and unfortunately for me, those are the games I was throwing at that point,” he said. “My workload in the games increased along with the amount of work I was doing to get back to what was normal for me. That’s when my shoulder flared up.” Barnes hit the injured list retroactive to May 31 with shoulder inflammation, an injury that kept him out of action until early August.

Of course, the lack of high-leverage work was in response to Barnes’ struggles. He’d been tagged for an 8.65 ERA in 10 appearances through May 5. That was on the heels of a 6.48 showing in the second half of 2021 that led the Sox to leave him off the playoff roster. He actually fared quite well to close out the 2022 campaign, posting a 1.66 ERA in 23 games to finish out the year. That wasn’t enough to grab a lasting 40-man spot over the winter, perhaps due to a still diminished 21.7% strikeout rate in that stretch.

Red Sox’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom discussed the Barnes DFA and subsequent trade on the Fenway Rundown podcast with Cotillo yesterday. Bloom noted that trading Barnes to Miami was “not something that we knew was going to happen at the time of the DFA,” suggesting the opportunity to make the trade arose after the reliever lost his roster spot. He pointed to Bleier’s propensity for weak contact and previous success in the AL East as a member of the Yankees and Orioles as reasons he was an appealing target for the front office.

Bleier adds a second left-hander to the Boston relief corps, joining offseason signee Joely Rodríguez. The Sox had a decent amount of turnover in that regard, waiving Darwinzon Hernández, trading Josh Taylor for Adalberto Mondesi, and seeing Matt Strahm depart via free agency. Boston has starting pitching prospects like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter who could theoretically factor into that mix after securing 40-man roster spots.

James Paxton is another southpaw on the roster. He’s pitched just six MLB games over the past three seasons due to arm injuries. That’s raised some speculation about the possibility of the veteran seeing action in relief as a means of building his innings gradually. Bloom didn’t rule that out entirely, though he cautioned that might not be prudent for a pitcher who has started all 137 of his career big league outings.

“At the stage of his career that he’s at and having been through as much medically as he’s been through, adding the variable of asking him to do something he hasn’t really done is something we would have to think long and hard before doing,” Bloom told Cotillo. “That doesn’t rule it out, but you do have to factor that in.”

The Boston baseball operations leader also pushed back against the possibility of using young righty Brayan Bello out of the bullpen, pointing to his “ceiling of being a really good starting pitcher.” Bloom did note that Boston could “creatively” manage workloads early in the season but made clear the team still views Bello’s future as a starter. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic writes there’s similarly no consideration of moving Nick Pivetta to the bullpen. Between that trio, Chris Sale, offseason signee Corey Kluber and the rotation conversion for Garrett Whitlock, it seems things are trending towards Tanner Houck sticking in relief for the upcoming season.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Hernandez, Arroyo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck

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Red Sox’s brass met with reporters and fans at their Winter Weekend convention this evening. Manager Alex Cora and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom each addressed the roster status with roughly two months remaining in the offseason.

The middle infield is among the biggest questions. With Xander Bogaerts in San Diego and Trevor Story set to miss at least a notable portion of the upcoming season, Boston has very little certainty up the middle. Adam Duvall agreed to a one-year deal earlier this week to man center field, likely kicking Enrique Hernández back to the infield.

Manager Alex Cora suggested that was currently the team’s plan, implying that Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). That leaves Christian Arroyo as the likeliest option to man second base. Bloom indicated the team remained open to adding help from outside the organization (relayed by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) but the Hernández – Arroyo pairing seemingly has the inside track among internal candidates.

Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond. He’s primarily played center field or second base, logging just 618 shortstop innings through parts of nine MLB seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has looked favorably upon his limited work there, rating him as nine runs better than average overall. Hernández has typically graded out as a solid or better second baseman and a particularly strong center fielder, where he spent the bulk of his time in 2022.

Arroyo has been in the Boston second base mix for the past couple seasons. He’s hit at a roughly league average level in both years, making plenty of contact to compensate for low walk rates. Arroyo has logged just under 900 major league innings at the keystone. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him an excellent 10 runs better than the average defender there, while Statcast has rated him as an exactly average gloveman.

There aren’t many middle infield options remaining in free agency. Elvis Andrus and Josh Harrison are probably the top players still available. The Sox have been loosely tied to both in recent days. Donovan Solano, César Hernández and José Iglesias are among the depth types remaining as well.

There’s also a fair amount of uncertainty on the pitching side of things in Fenway, largely thanks to injury. Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each ended the 2022 season on the injured list. Whitlock is returning from hip surgery, while Houck underwent a back procedure. Sale had myriad health concerns that culminated in surgery to repair a fracture in his right wrist sustained in a bicycle accident.

Cora said this evening that all three pitchers have been throwing off a mound (relayed by Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). All three could factor into the rotation. Sale’s a lock for the starting five if healthy. The Sox have already announced they plan to give Whitlock a rotation opportunity. Houck’s role seems more fluid, as he could crack the starting five or remain in a high-leverage relief capacity. The former first-round pick has been the subject of some recent trade speculation, though there’s no indication a deal is on the horizon or especially likely to transpire.

Red Sox Have Received “Significant” Interest In Tanner Houck

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Demand for controllable starting pitching is, as always, through the roof in Major League Baseball, but it’s in perhaps shorter supply than at any point in recent years. The Marlins are one of the few teams with starting pitching available on the trade market, as they’re reportedly open to offers on just about anyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Perez. Other options are few and far between, though Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes that the Red Sox have received “significant” trade interest in righty Tanner Houck as teams explore alternatives to Miami’s starting pitching glut.

That’s not to say that a deal of Houck is expected or likely. Houck doesn’t have a definite role on Boston’s starting staff thanks to the presence of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello, but the injury risk among that group means that Houck can’t be expressly ruled out of the running, either. Sale has pitched just 48 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, and Paxton has just 21 2/3 frames across the past three MLB seasons combined. Kluber rebounded with 164 innings in 2022 but prior to that had thrown just 116 2/3 innings over a three-year period himself.

Moreover, the 26-year-old Houck could yet find himself with a pivotal role in Boston’s bullpen after impressing as a reliever in 2022. Just four of Houck’s 32 appearances last year were starts; he tossed 43 1/3 innings out of the Red Sox’ bullpen and worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 53% grounder rate. Overall, the former No. 24 overall draft pick logged a 3.15 ERA in 60 innings between his two roles, showing roughly average strikeout rates with slightly below-average command but above-average ground-ball tendencies.

It was the continuation of a strong start to Houck’s still-fledgling career. The hard-throwing righty made his debut when he started three games in the shortened 2020 season, and overall he’s pitched 146 innings of 3.02 ERA ball at the MLB level. However, he’s never topped 119 innings in a professional season, and his 2022 campaign ended in August when he required surgery to address a back injury.

Prior to his big league debut, Houck had some struggles against left-handed opponents, although he’s worked to incorporate a splitter, which has helped to remedy that issue. A hefty 89% of the splitters Houck has thrown over the past two seasons have come against left-handed batters, and in his career opponents have mustered an awful .115/.207/.231 output against the pitch.

Houck is controlled for another five seasons and won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 campaign. As such, it’s only natural that opposing teams would inquire about his availability. That doesn’t necessarily mean a trade is looming, although the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported just two weeks ago that the Red Sox were open to dealing a big league pitcher — “potentially including Houck” — in the right deal. Cotillo, meanwhile, adds that the Sox would be more willing to part with Houck than either Whitlock or Bello, although again, that’s a far cry from saying Houck is someone the Sox are looking to move. That Speier report came before it was publicly known that Trevor Story’s entire 2023 season was in jeopardy following an elbow injury that necessitated internal brace surgery.

In the weeks since that report from Speier, the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Adam Duvall, whom they believe can handle center field for them, and brought in veterans like outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Jorge Alfaro on minor league deals. The Red Sox aren’t punting on the 2023 season in the wake of Story’s injury — not after already signing Kluber, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez for a combined $173.2MM.

As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.

Potential areas for improvement on the big league roster include the middle infield, where Enrique Hernandez and Christian Arroyo figure to play prominent roles following Story’s injury, and behind the plate, where the combination of Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Alfaro could all vie for time. It’s feasible, too, that the Sox could still pursue a long-term option in center field, although those are also in short supply this winter and the addition of Duvall at least ostensibly lessens such a need.

For now, it seems the Sox plan to head to camp with the idea of Houck stretching out as a starter, then scale him back to a short relief role if necessary. That said, given the dearth of options for teams seeking rotation help on the trade market, this probably won’t be the last time Houck’s name pops up on the rumor mill in the weeks leading up to Spring Training. There’s no indication a deal is likely, but other teams will surely make efforts to pry Houck and others loose — particularly now that a major injury to Story has altered Boston’s 2023 outlook.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Casas, Houck, Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.

Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.

Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.

The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.

Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.

Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.

Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.

If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.

Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Rotation, Houck

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With Xander Bogaerts headed to San Diego, the Red Sox face questions about their lineup. Boston has added Masataka Yoshida on a five-year deal to play left field, but they’re now dealing with a vacancy in the middle of the diamond.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters this week the Red Sox are seeking someone who can play up the middle on either the infield or outfield (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). As Bloom noted, the team has some positional flexibility in that regard thanks to Trevor Story and Enrique Hernández. Story played second base in deference to Bogaerts this past season, but the longtime Rockies shortstop now looks penciled in to move back to the left side of the diamond. Hernández is a quality defender at both second base and center field, and his ability to cover either spot gives Boston the freedom to look for players at either position and move Hernández around depending on subsequent additions.

In any event, the Red Sox figure to bring in another player with the athleticism to cover up the middle. As things stand, the team would likely open the season with Story at shortstop, Hernández in center and some combination of Christian Arroyo and Jeter Downs at second base. Neither Arroyo nor Downs should have a firm hold on an everyday job for a hopeful contender, but the available free agent options at important defensive positions are dwindling.

The center field market was almost completely barren from the start, with Brandon Nimmo the clear top option. Players like Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger got everyday jobs coming off disappointing seasons, while the Red Sox struck early to keep Hernández out of free agency on a $10MM extension in September. He’s not coming off a great year himself, but the lackluster free agent class no doubt played a role in Boston’s decision to take a shot on a bounceback.

Free agency in the middle infield is a bit more robust. Dansby Swanson is the top player still remaining. The Red Sox are reportedly part of that market, although they’ll face competition from teams like the Cubs, Twins, Dodgers and incumbent Braves. It’d be rather surprising to see the Sox pivot to Swanson — who looks likely to top $150MM on the open market — after watching their own star shortstop (and described “top priority”) depart. There’s a notable drop after Swanson, with Elvis Andrus the next-best remaining shortstop. At second base, Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are the top options available.

All those players hit right-handed, which could make them targets for the Boston front office. Speier writes the Sox are looking for a righty bat, a sensible pursuit considering their lineup skews towards the left side. Story, Hernández and Arroyo are the only three righties who currently look like regulars, and Arroyo could be supplanted by an outside addition. Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo and Yoshida all hit from the left side, as do first base/DH options Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer. Boston has Bobby Dalbec in that mix as a righty alternative, but he’s struggled enough the past couple seasons they’ve reportedly made him available in trade.

The trade market obviously also offers a chance for the Red Sox to address some roster deficiencies. Bloom told Chad Jennings of the Athletic on Monday the club was open to consolidating minor league talent to add immediate MLB help. The front office leader downplayed the possibility of moving talented players at the MLB level (seemingly including Casas) as part of those efforts, but he expressed a willingness to move players who are further away from the majors.

There aren’t many up-the-middle players who look likely to be dealt this winter. The Guardians could part with shortstop Amed Rosario, while the Royals may field offers on center fielder Michael A. Taylor. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano has some center field experience and would add a righty bat to the outfield, but he’s coming off a dismal 2022 season and the A’s may prefer to hold him in hopes of a better year that rebuilds his trade appeal.

The rotation market offers more possibilities, both in free agency and trade. Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto and old friends Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha are among the free agent options still available. Viable rotation trade candidates include Trevor Rogers and Pablo López in Miami, Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales of the Mariners and Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker. Both Speier and Jennings write that Boston would like to add a starter, no surprise for a team that has seen Eovaldi, Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency without bringing in outside help.

Boston does have a few players who can step into the rotation after not assuming much of a role last season. Chris Sale barely pitched in 2022, while James Paxton didn’t throw for the Sox at all. They’ll hopefully go into Spring Training healthy but have plenty of recent injuries and workload concerns. Brayan Bello could get a full season after breaking into the majors this past July. The Red Sox already announced Garrett Whitlock would join Nick Pivetta in the starting five after mostly working in multi-inning relief the last two years.

The Sox haven’t been as committal on Tanner Houck, but he’s also a rotation option after bouncing between starting and relief for a while. As Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic writes, the Sox’s offseason to date has seen them bring in a few bullpen options — Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen and Joely Rodríguez — without doing much to fortify the rotation. That could point towards an increasing likelihood of Houck competing for a rotation spot in Spring Training, although much depends on the team’s activity over the next three months.

Houck came out of the bullpen for 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022, including some time as the team’s closer. With Jansen now set to lock down the ninth inning, skipper Alex Cora can deploy Houck either in higher-leverage relief in the middle innings or as part of the starting staff. The former first-round pick started 13 of his 18 outings in 2021, and he has 20 MLB starts on his résumé. In that time, he’s worked to a 3.22 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate. Houck has a 2.68 ERA and a 25.9% career strikeout percentage when coming out of the bullpen.

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