Latest On Teoscar Hernandez’s Market
2:17PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Hernandez but Anthony Santander appears to be Toronto’s chief backup target if Soto isn’t signed, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).
1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez‘s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger. The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.
The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto. At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM. Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.
Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.” After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season. Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.
As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services. The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024. Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.
The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years. New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.
Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO). Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick. Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.
12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers
Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.
The players who rejected the offer:
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Max Fried (Braves)
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.
All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.
A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.
If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).
The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.
Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers Interested In Teoscar Hernández
Free agent Teoscar Hernández just won a World Series and is now drawing interest in the early days of the offseason. The Red Sox and Orioles are interested in the outfielder, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network on X. The Dodgers and Hernández also have mutual interest in a reunion, per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.
Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.
He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.
That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.
But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.
Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.
Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.
Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.
Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.
Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.
For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.
Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel‘s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.
For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.
“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”
Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.
13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Max Fried (Braves)
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
- Sean Manaea (Mets)
- Luis Severino (Mets)
- Nick Martinez (Reds)
As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.
If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.
Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.
Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.
There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.
Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.
Dodgers Notes: Hernandez, Flaherty, Kershaw, Freeman
Teoscar Hernandez and trade deadline pickup Jack Flaherty are heading to free agency after playing major roles in the Dodgers’ World Series triumph, and both players told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and SportsNet LA’s David Vassegh) that they would like to return to Los Angeles for an encore.
“My hopes are really high. Like I’ve said before, the Dodgers are the priority, obviously,” Hernandez said. “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….I want us to be here. I want us to be part of this. I have so many good memories here. I’ve learned a lot as a player, as a person. It feels great to be part of this.”
“I love this city. I never want to leave,” Flaherty told Vassegh, with the words perhaps carrying a bit of extra weight since Flaherty was born in Burbank and grew up in Los Angeles. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Flaherty would give the Dodgers a hometown discount, though naturally playing close to home gives the Dodgers (and theoretically the Angels) an extra edge that other potential free-agent suitors can’t match.
It isn’t surprising to hear players on any team (whether world champions or not) express an open desire to re-sign with their current teams, and feelings could change as the free agent market develops. Of course, winning a title again underlines the fact that L.A. should be a contending team for years to come, giving the Dodgers even more flexibility in picking and choosing how they’ll construct their 2025 roster.
Re-signing Hernandez would bring another big bat back into the lineup and check off the left field question mark in one fell swoop. Though the slugger is entering his age-32 season, he is also coming off one of the best years of his nine MLB seasons, and he further showed his value with a big playoff performance. On the flip side, Hernandez would surely reject a qualifying offer, putting the Dodgers in line for a compensatory draft pick if Hernandez signed elsewhere. If Los Angeles wanted to give Andy Pages more playing time in left field or perhaps keep the position open for another outfielder (even a big name like Juan Soto), the Dodgers could opt to walk away from Hernandez and just view their one-year alliance as a total win for both parties.
Both Hernandez and Flaherty were looking to bounce back after shaky 2024 seasons, and Flaherty likewise answered some critics by posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 combined regular-season innings with the Tigers and Dodgers. The right-hander’s postseason performance was a lot more inconsistent, yet Flaherty was important simply because he was a proper starting pitcher within the injury-ravaged Dodgers’ staff. On paper, most of Los Angeles’ injured pitchers will be ready to go by Opening Day 2025, yet the team will surely look to solidify this group with at least one other starter to provide some durability as well as quality innings.
Clayton Kershaw is one of those pitchers with a murky health status, as the longtime Dodger ace is set to undergo a pair of surgeries on his left knee and toe. Kershaw pitched only 30 regular-season innings in 2024 due to bone spurs in his toe, his recovery from a shoulder surgery from last November, and this heretofore unknown torn meniscus in his left knee.
The southpaw has already said he is planning to pitch in 2025, and reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that “I’ll be back, somehow” for an 18th season with the Dodgers. This might not necessarily come to pass, however, just by Kershaw exercising his $10MM player option for 2025, as Kershaw might also look to work out a new contract with L.A. that would presumably give both gives some flexibility for the future. Several of the Dodgers’ extensions in recent years have involved tacking an extra option year or two onto a shorter-term deal, so it seems quite possible the club could again explore such a contract with Kershaw.
In other Dodger news, the end of the playoffs also acts as the time when players traditionally come clean about any hidden injuries they’ve been playing through in October. It was already known that Freddie Freeman was playing despite an ankle sprain and bone bruise, yet ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Freeman also suffered broken costal cartilage in his rib while taking batting practice just prior to the start of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup with the Padres.
The first baseman still played in four of the five games in that series as well as four of the Dodgers’ six NLCS games with the Mets, though Freeman was hitting only .219/.242/.219 in his first 33 playoff plate appearances. The four days’ off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series provided Freeman with a chance to fully rest and reset, and he somewhat miraculously felt much better heading into Game 1, when he kicked off his World Series MVP performance.
No Extension Talks To Date Between Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers have not had any in-season extension discussions with Teoscar Hernández, the slugger told reporters before tonight’s possible elimination game (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Hernández doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks, saying that he’s focused on the season and hasn’t given free agency much thought.
Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.
That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.
Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.
[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]
Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.
They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.
Teoscar Hernandez Expected To Avoid Injured List
5:07pm: Hernandez is not in the lineup today, but told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that he expects to avoid the injured list after testing on his foot came back clean and he woke up today feeling better. Hernandez added that he hopes to back in the lineup during next week’s series against the Cubs, which begins on Monday.
9:07am: Teoscar Hernandez left Friday’s 3-1 Dodgers loss to the Guardians in the first inning, after the slugger was hit on the left ankle by a pitch from Cleveland starter Matthew Boyd. Hernandez was in obvious discomfort when leaving the field, though the injury has been termed a foot contusion for now since initial x-rays were negative.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio) that more tests will be done on Hernandez’s ankle, but a trip to the injured list seems unavoidable. “[Hernandez is] as tough as they come and he could barely move his foot….He doesn’t come out of games,” Roberts said. “Afterwards, the pain typically subsides for him, but it didn’t. It’s concerning.”
More will be known about Hernandez’s status later today, yet since it seems like he’ll certainly be going on the IL, the question is now whether or not we’ll see Hernandez on the field again in 2024. Beyond just the regular season, the Dodgers certainly hope to be playing deep into the playoffs, yet such an extended run would obviously be a lot more difficult if Hernandez isn’t available. Winning the NL West is also not a foregone conclusion, as the Dodgers hold a four-game lead on the Padres and a 5.5-game lead on the Diamondbacks.
Considering how Hernandez is also a free agent this winter, it is also conceivable that Friday might’ve marked the end of the left fielder’s tenure in Los Angeles altogether. After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract with L.A. last winter with the idea that he could make a quick return to free agency this coming offseason on the heels of a rebound year. That scenario has played out exactly as Hernandez had intended, as he has hit .266/.331/.488 with 28 homers over 581 plate appearances and earned a spot on the NL All-Star team.
Perhaps the key number in that statline is simply the number of plate appearances, as Hernandez has been one of the Dodgers’ pillars of stability amidst an injury-plagued season. Almost literally every member of the L.A. pitching staff has spent time on the IL or had their season already ended by injuries, and Mookie Betts (fractured hand) and Max Muncy (oblique strain) also each missed months of time before returning in August.
Just when it seemed as though Los Angeles finally had its first-choice lineup all intact, however, the position-player depth will again be tested if Hernandez misses time as expected. Any of Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Andy Pages, or Tommy Edman could be cycled into left field, though the Dodgers had also been using the right-handed hitting Hernandez and Taylor at second and third base, to shield the lefty-swinging Muncy and Gavin Lux against some southpaw pitching. James Outman is the most probable Triple-A call-up, as Outman’s presence would further add to the outfield mix while perhaps keeping Lux and Enrique Hernandez more limited to infield duty.
Red Sox Notes: Casas, Story, Mata, Hernandez
“It will be a while” before Triston Casas is ready for a minor league rehab assignment, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and other reporters on Friday. Casas hasn’t played since April 20 due to a rib fracture and torn rib cartilage, and he is already well beyond even the broad 3-to-9 week timeframe Casas initially floated three months ago, though the first baseman noted that the nature of the injury led to a lot of fluidity.
In yesterday’s update, Cora said Casas was taking soft toss swings and is hitting off a tee, but is still dealing with some nagging discomfort in his side. Until that discomfort entirely subsides, Casas and the Sox can’t really move forward with any kind of concrete plan for even a steadier ramp-up, let alone any minor league rehab work. Cora did say that Casas would play again in 2024, but “we don’t know yet” when a return was feasible.
Casas finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023, and was off to a hot start (.244/.344/.513 with six home runs) in his first 90 plate appearances this season. Dominic Smith and several other players have gotten time at first base in Casas’ absence, but since nobody has been producing, it stands to reason that the Red Sox could target a first base-capable player at the deadline if Casas is still several weeks away from factoring into the club’s plans.
Some more unexpected later-season reinforcements could come from Trevor Story, who told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam) on Friday that he and the Red Sox were “having conversations about” Story getting back onto the field before the 2024 campaign is over. Both Story and Cora stopped short of saying that a return was in the cards, yet it is notable that Story has made such quality progress rehabbing what was thought to be a season-ending shoulder surgery in April.
“Just getting the strength back and getting the motion back…I’ve made a lot of really good strides there,” Story said. “It’s close, man. It’s close. Especially from how it was early on. It was not in good shape. It’s been a crazy turnaround the last month and a half and we’re riding that momentum.”
Story injured his shoulder while diving for a grounder in just his eighth game of the season, continuing what has been an injury-plagued tenure in Boston for the former All-Star. Since inking a six-year, $140MM free agent deal in March 2022, Story has played in only 145 games — UCL surgery cost him all but 43 games of the 2023 season, and wrist and heel injuries limited him to 94 appearances in 2022. Unsurprisingly, these health woes have led to subpar performance when Story has been able to play, as he has a modest .227/.288/.394 slash line in 598 PA in a Red Sox uniform.
Bryan Mata is also no stranger to injuries, as Tommy John surgery and a teres major strain sidelined him for most of the 2021-23 seasons. This year, hamstring and lat problems emerged to keep Mata again spending most of the year rehabbing, and now his latest rehab assignment has been halted due to right elbow inflammation. Mata was right at the end of the 30-day window for that assignment, though his latest injury now resets the clock and Mata will be able to start another 30-day rehab assignment when he is able to get back onto the mound.
Though he has yet to make his MLB debut, Mata is out of minor league options, leaving Boston in a bit of a quandary when it comes to his future. The Red Sox can’t assign him to the minors without first designating the right-hander for assignment and exposing him to waivers, so when Mata is finally ready to play, the Red Sox will have to put him on the active roster or go the DFA route.
While getting healthy has obviously been more important than the on-field results during Mata’s rehab work, he has a 4.50 ERA over 22 total innings for four different Red Sox minor league affiliates this season, with a 19.15% strikeout rate. It isn’t nearly the form that Mata showed in his past days as one of Boston’s top pitching prospects, and with another setback again stopping his progress, it is still a question about when or even if Mata might eventually surface as part of the team’s big league staff.
In other Red Sox news, the team was known to have been interested in Teoscar Hernandez last offseason, and the slugger said this week in an appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (hat tip to WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that the Sox and Dodgers were the two finalists for his services. Hernandez said the Red Sox offered a two-year, $28MM contract, but he instead opted for a one-year, $23.5MM deal with Los Angeles.
“At the end, I thought [the Red Sox] were going to make it, but unfortunately they had to wait because they had to make some moves and other stuff,” Hernandez said. “I couldn’t wait any longer, so that’s why I decide at the moment to go to the Dodgers.”
Hernandez went into the winter seeking a three-year contract, but when neither Boston or any other suitor was willing to guarantee a third year, he instead opted for the one-year contract with the Dodgers, to allow for a chance at a rebound season and a quick return to free agency next winter. The strategy has worked out quite well, as Hernandez has hit 19 homers with a .261/.326/.476 slash in 406 PA for Los Angeles, and now has a much stronger case for a three-year pact as he enters his age-32 season.
Beyond the contractual logistics, Hernandez also admitted that the Dodgers’ win-now approach and track record of success further attracted him to the organization, though he was quick to note that “the Red Sox are really good right now and they have amazing players.” The Sox and newly-hired chief baseball officer Craig Breslow were often criticized for their relatively low-key offseason that didn’t see a lot of high-dollar splurges, yet Boston has a 53-43 record and is in possession of an AL wild card berth.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?
The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:
- Mets 1B Pete Alonso
- Phillies 3B Alec Bohm
- Rangers OF Adolis García
- Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson
- Dodgers OF Teoscar Hernández
- Braves DH Marcell Ozuna
- Guardians 3B José Ramírez
- Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.
This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.
In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.
The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.
Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.
Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!
Who Do You Want To Win The 2024 Derby?
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Teoscar Hernández 22% (1,921)
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Pete Alonso 18% (1,644)
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Gunnar Henderson 16% (1,389)
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Bobby Witt Jr. 11% (1,013)
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Marcell Ozuna 11% (950)
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José Ramírez 8% (730)
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Alec Bohm 7% (652)
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Adolis García 7% (625)
Total votes: 8,924
Who Do You Think Will Win The 2024 Derby?
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Pete Alonso 26% (1,512)
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Teoscar Hernández 23% (1,337)
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Gunnar Henderson 14% (815)
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Marcell Ozuna 11% (659)
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Adolis García 8% (491)
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Bobby Witt Jr. 7% (415)
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José Ramírez 5% (308)
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Alec Bohm 5% (281)
Total votes: 5,818
Blue Jays Notes: Hernandez, Tiedemann, Manoah, Rodriguez
After Friday’s 12-2 blowout loss to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays now have a 13-14 record over their first 27 games, and (via tiebreaker) sit in last place in the AL East. While there has been plenty of inconsistency within the pitching staff, Toronto’s most glaring problem has been a lack of offense — the Jays rank 24th of 30 teams in runs (98), and their .197 average with runners in scoring position is the third-worst in the league.
This slow offensive start has only generated more questions (and second-guessing) about the Blue Jays’ offseason approach to upgrading the lineup, notwithstanding the team’s high-profile attempt at signing Shohei Ohtani. This isn’t to say what the Jays check in with a number of other bats, including a notable former Blue Jay slugger in Teoscar Hernandez.
As Hernandez told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays made contact “at the beginning” of the offseason and “said to not forget about them.” However, later talks didn’t yield much or any progress towards a deal, as “obviously when we exchanged numbers and years and all that stuff, they said they could not go that far. That was about it.”
Hernandez blossomed into an All-Star over his six seasons in Toronto, hitting .263/.320/.503 with 129 homers in 2419 plate appearances for the Blue Jays from 2017-22. Despite this production, the Jays dealt Hernandez to the Mariners in November 2022 in exchange for Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Hernandez was entering his final year of salary arbitration prior to free agency, plus the Jays felt a need to improve their outfield defense and contact hitting, as Hernandez struck out a lot and didn’t offer much in the way of glovework.
Considering that Swanson pitched well last season and Hernandez hit an underwhelming .258/.305/.435 in Seattle, Toronto’s logic in making the deal seemed sound. The outfielder’s so-so numbers resulted in what was essentially a “prove it” type of contract in free agency, as Hernandez signed with Los Angeles on a $23.5MM deal (including $8.5MM in deferrals) covering just the 2024 season. To date, Hernandez has bounced back quite nicely, to the tune of six home runs and a .267/.336/.486 slash line over his first 117 PA in Dodger Blue.
It is understandable why the Blue Jays might have been wary about committing $23.5MM to a hitter coming off such an average season, and all things being equal financially, it is also possible Hernandez might’ve preferred joining a star-studded L.A. lineup rather than return to a team that just traded him only a year earlier. That said, Hernandez’s April numbers would’ve obviously been a huge help to the Jays’ lineup, and perhaps a more prudent investment than the $18MM in combined salary the team is paying Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this season. Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been decent enough but he is one of several comparable infielders on Toronto’s roster, while Kiermaier has contributed next to nothing at the plate and is currently on the injured list dealing with inflammation in his hip flexor.
Ricky Tiedemann is another player on the mend, as the southpaw is on the seven-day injured list at Triple-A Buffalo. Jays manager John Schneider provided some positive news on Tiedemann’s status Friday, telling MLB.com’s Julia Kreuz and other reporters that Tiedemann is dealing with ulnar nerve inflammation, and not any structural damage to his left elbow. It isn’t quite clear yet when Tiedemann might be back on the mound for Buffalo, but he should start throwing again within 7-10 days.
Ranked as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Tiedemann hasn’t pitched all that much over three pro seasons, with just 130 2/3 total minor league innings under his belt. That total includes only 44 frames (32 at Double-A) in 2023, as Tiedemann battles biceps and shoulder problems for much of the year. Heading into this season, Tiedemann also had hamstring and calf issues during Spring Training, then tossed eight innings over three Triple-A starts before his IL placement.
Getting Tiedemann healthy is the Blue Jays’ top priority, and he’ll need to bank some quality innings at Triple-A before garnering consideration for his first big league call-up. Some amount of extra pressure is perhaps unavoidable for Tiedemann given both the top-100 hype, and his outsized importance on a Jays team lacking in rotation depth. In the event of an injury within the starting rotation, Paolo Espino might be the next man up by default, as Bowden Francis is on the 15-day IL and Alek Manoah‘s status remains in question given his shaky rehab performances.
Yariel Rodriguez has pitched well over his first three career Major League starts, so for now, Rodriguez has solidified his claim to the fifth starter’s job. As the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath noted earlier this week, however, Rodriguez is on an unspecified innings limit since he didn’t pitch at all in 2023, and it remains to be seen how the Blue Jays might dole out those innings in the right-hander’s rookie season. Rodriguez could be moved back to the bullpen at some point in order to limit his usage, but that would require someone else to step up for rotation work.
Manoah’s 11.85 ERA over 13 2/3 innings in his four rehab outings is hard to ignore, as even though rehab starts are more about health and figuring things out rather than results, Manoah is still being plagued by control problems and the home run ball. The Jays placed Manoah on the 15-day injured list to begin the season as the right-hander was bothered by shoulder soreness during Spring Training, and as McGrath observes, the 30-day rehab window ends for Manoah on May 6. He could be optioned to Triple-A at that point, or potentially become an option for the 26-man roster if he looks better in what should be two more rehab outings. Manoah is also slated to throw a bullpen session in Toronto this weekend in front of the team’s big league coaching staff.