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Lars Nootbaar Diagnosed With Rib Fractures

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced this afternoon that outfielder Lars Nootbaar has two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs on the left side, per John Denton of MLB.com. He underwent a CT scan yesterday after injuring himself making a catch in a recent game. Nootbaar will have a period of 10-14 days where he can swing the bat but have limited work otherwise, per Derrick Goold and Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His readiness for Opening Day is now in doubt but not ruled out just yet. That issue is compounded by the fact that Tommy Edman is also doubtful for Opening Day as he recovers from arthroscopic wrist surgery, per Goold.

In a vacuum, neither situation is devastating for the Cards but it’s not ideal for the club to be heading into the season with two thirds of its outfield now in jeopardy. Nootbaar has taken 974 trips to the plate for the Cardinals over the past three seasons, hitting 33 home runs while drawing walks at a 14% clip and limiting his strikeouts to a 20.3% rate. His combined batting line of .246/.351/.429 translates to a wRC+ of 117, indicating he’s been 17% better than the league average hitter. He’s also swiped 17 bags and received strong grades for his outfield defense.

Removing that kind of production from the lineup would be unwelcome at any time but having him out of action at the same time as Edman would be an unfortunate coincidence. Mozeliak suggested that Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson will likely step up for the time being, per Denton.

Carlson, 25, is a strong defender but hasn’t quite broken out with the bat yet, having hit .243/.322/.394 thus far in his career for a wRC+ of 99. Burleson is generally considered a bat-first guy, though his major league production hasn’t matched his work in the minors just yet. He’s hit .300/.350/.492 on the farm but just .237/.295/.375 in the big leagues, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 85.

With those two likely to be slotted next to Jordan Walker on a regular basis, that could bump Michael Siani up to fourth outfielder status. Siani is a speed-and-defense guy who has hit just .138/.167/.138 in his big league career. That’s a tiny sample of just 30 plate appearances but his minor league offense has also been subpar. He slashed .227/.347/.350 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 81.

Brendan Donovan is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, but the club doesn’t have a regular designated hitter. That likely means Donovan will either be the DH or moving around to give someone else a partial day off most of the time. If Matt Carpenter could seize the DH job, perhaps that frees up Donovan to slot into the outfield more regularly but Carpenter is now 38 years old and hit just .176/.322/.319 for the Padres last year. Donovan also might need some infield time regardless as Brandon Crawford currently profiles as the backup infielder but he’s never played anywhere other than shortstop.

With the outfield injuries, speculation has turned to Victor Scott II, who is one of the club’s best prospects. But Mozeliak tells Denton that the club will take “a measured and patient approach” with the decision to promote him to the big leagues. Scott was just drafted in 2022 has yet to reach Triple-A, so it’s understandable the club may not want to rush him to the big leagues to cover what is likely a temporary need.

All told, there are many moving parts and there’s still a few weeks for the Cards to get everything figured out, but it’s at least somewhat concerning that health has become such a huge focus here in March. The club is looking to bounce back after a nightmare season in 2023 and is already dealing with notable injuries to two thirds of its starting outfield as well as Sonny Gray, their marquee offseason pickup, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.

Sonny Gray Headed For MRI After Early Exit; Tommy Edman May Not Be Ready For Opening Day

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Top Cardinals starter Sonny Gray exited today’s spring start with a trainer in the middle of an at-bat against Washington’s Nick Senzel. The team announced shortly afterward that Gray was experiencing tightness in his right hamstring. Gray declined to comment on the potential injury after exiting, instead stating that he wanted to talk to the team’s training staff and learn more about the issue before speaking with the media (link via Derrick Goold of the St.  Louis Post-Dispatch). Gray missed roughly a month of the 2022 season with a strain in that same right hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022. Goold further tweets that Gray is headed for an MRI to determine the severity of the issue.

An absence of any real note would be a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals. While the Cards overhauled their rotation this winter, Gray is the lone front-of-the-rotation arm the team brought in. Lance Lynn isn’t far removed from posting high-end results himself, but he’s 36 years old and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He, like fellow mid-30s veteran Kyle Gibson, was signed more as a durable source of innings than to be a clear playoff-caliber starter.

Gray, 34, is fresh off a Cy Young runner-up finish in the American League. He pitched 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball last season, fanning 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. Gray’s 2.83 FIP was a near-identical match with his ERA, though metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize home run rate, were more bearish and pegged him in the mid- to upper-3.00s. Gray’s 5.2% homer-to-flyball ratio was less than half the 12.3% career mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed him for three years and a total of $75MM back in November. He’s slated to be joined by Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas in one of the game’s oldest rotations.

Even if Gray can’t quite replicate his 2023 performance, he’s the clear top starter on that St. Louis staff. Were he to miss time, the drop-off between Gray and his replacement would be substantial. At present, the top options to step into the staff in his stead would presumably be lefties Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Righties Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are both on the 40-man roster as well, though neither has made his MLB debut yet.

The Cardinals, at least thus far, haven’t brought in any veteran big league starters on non-roster deals. That’s understandable, as most players open to that type of deal would take a look at the veteran rotation in St. Louis and see a lack of opportunity — but the lack of any proven depth could also be an issue in 2024, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up.

Gray isn’t the only key member of the Cardinals who’s facing some health-related uncertainty. Tommy Edman, formerly the team’s shortstop and now slated to serve as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder, isn’t recovering from arthroscopic wrist surgery as swiftly as the team hoped. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that “internal concern is growing” that Edman might not be ready for Opening Day. Edman still hasn’t been cleared to face live pitching, Woo writes, and despite the fact that Opening Day is just over three weeks away, there’s not even a timetable for when that might happen.

Fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson would step into the starting job in center field if Edman is on the injured list to begin the season, per the report. Lars Nootbaar played plenty of center field last season, but perhaps if the plan is for him to play left field regularly when Edman is healthy this season, the team simply wants Nootbaar getting as many reps in that position as possible. Carlson’s role as a fourth outfielder would be cycling through all three spots anyhow.

Edman, 28, had a disappointing 2023 at the plate while playing through pain in that now surgically-repaired wrist for much of the season. The versatile switch-hitter spent nearly a month of the ’23 season on the injured list due to inflammation in that wrist, and when he was healthy his output at the plate dropped from .265/.324/.400 in 2022 (106 wRC+) to just .248/.307/.399 in 2023 (92 wRC+).

In the event that Edman indeed requires a stint on the injured list to begin the season, that’d open up a spot on the bench for the Cards. That wouldn’t necessarily need to be an outfielder, as utilityman Brendan Donovan is no stranger to the outfield, and as previously noted, Nootbaar can handle center field work as well. That said, an outfielder would be the most logical candidate. Lefty-swinging Michael Siani and Alec Burleson are both on the 40-man roster already and both have minor league options remaining. Siani is regarded as a plus defender in center field and would offer premium speed off the bench, while Burleson would be limited to first base and the corners but give the Cards some power that the bench currently lacks.

Cardinals, Tommy Edman Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal

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7:40pm: Edman is guaranteed $16.5MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link).

3:30pm: The Cardinals and utility player Tommy Edman have avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal, per a club announcement. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the agreement prior to the club making it official. The financials of the deal have not yet been publicly reported. Edman was one of 22 players who didn’t agree to a salary before the filing deadline, though he’s now the third of that group to subsequently ink a new pact, joining Cionel Pérez of the Orioles and Casey Mize of the Tigers.

Edman, 29 in May, first qualified for arbitration a year ago and made $4.2MM in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $6.5MM this year. As mentioned, he and the club didn’t agree on a new salary by the filing deadline, with Edman filing at $6.95MM and the club at $6.5MM. They would have been slated for a hearing in the weeks to come but have instead agreed to a deal that will cover his 2024 and 2025 seasons, buying out his final two arb years. Edman will be slated for free agency after this deal runs its course.

Like many clubs, the Cards are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they choose not to continue negotiations on one-year deals after the filing deadline even though such talks are allowed. Last week, Edman said he hadn’t yet heard anything about a multi-year deal but expected talks to occur before the hearing. It appears those talks did end up taking place and were fruitful enough to avoid a hearing, as well preventing Edman from having to worry about arbitration at all next winter.

Over his career, Edman has moved all over the diamond, having played all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, receiving strong grades for his glovework wherever he goes. He has hit .265/.319/.408 in his career, leading to a 99 wRC+, which indicates he’s been a hair below league average. He has stolen 106 bases in 123 tries. FanGraphs considers him to have provided 15.3 wins above replacement in 596 career games.

In 2024, it’s expected that he will be the center fielder on a regular basis, with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker likely to be flanking him most of the time. However, Edman also spent significant time at shortstop last year. The club is hoping Masyn Winn will take over the shortstop job going forward, but he’s not yet 22 years old and hit .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. It’s also possible an injury will create the need for Edman to move somewhere else, with Nootbaar or Dylan Carlson perhaps taking over in center.

Edman underwent arthroscopic wrist surgery in October and it still rehabbing from that procedure. As of last week, he hadn’t yet been cleared to make contact when swinging a bat but was “very confident” that he would be ready for the start of the season.

Cardinals Notes: TV Deal, Bullpen, Edman

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Cardinals officials met with reporters to close the organization’s Winter Warm-Up on Monday. The team’s local broadcasting contract was among the topics.

Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. confirmed the Cardinals would receive their full rights fees for 2024, per their contract with Bally Sports Midwest (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The Cardinals are among 12 teams affected by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. Even as MLB and the broadcasting conglomerate continue discussions about renegotiating some of the deals, St. Louis has been assured they’ll be paid in full next season.

That doesn’t provide any kind of certainty beyond 2024. There’s a real possibility Diamond ceases operation of all the Bally Sports RSNs after next season. In that case, the teams will need to find a new means of in-market broadcasting. DeWitt suggested the Cards were considering a handful of different paths. One option would be a partnership with the NHL’s Blues for a shared channel. The club could also create a standalone channel of its own or partner with some of the other MLB teams that will likely be dropped by Bally after the ’24 campaign.

However they handle their post-’24 broadcasts, they’ll have one more season at their negotiated rights fees. Goold reports that number to be around $73MM (potentially more depending on inflation adjustments). DeWitt said the Cardinals approached the 2023-24 offseason without any spending restrictions tied to the rights fees as they operated on the assumption they’d be paid at least 80% of their contract for next season.

St. Louis is on track for a similar payroll as they had a season ago. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $178MM. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they opened the ’23 campaign in the $177MM range. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated last weekend there was still some room to add this offseason, even if team president Bill DeWitt III has downplayed the chance of any huge splashes.

The middle relief corps stands as perhaps the team’s top remaining priority. After the Cardinals dealt Richie Palacios to the Rays for Andrew Kittredge, Katie Woo of the Athletic writes they’re likely to continue searching for free agent bullpen help. Previous reports have linked the team to Ryan Brasier and Phil Maton, each of whom remains unsigned.

Also in attendance on Monday was center fielder/middle infielder Tommy Edman. The switch-hitter discussed his rehab from October’s arthroscopic wrist procedure. He noted he hasn’t yet been cleared to make contact when he swings a bat. He’s likely to be delayed on the hitting side in camp but said he’s “very confident” he’ll be at full strength by the start of the season (Post-Dispatch link via Goold).

Edman also discussed his contract situation as he prepares for a potential arbitration hearing. He’s one of 22 arbitration-eligible players in MLB — and the only Cardinal — who didn’t reach a settlement before last Thursday’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Edman’s camp filed for a $6.95MM salary, while the team countered at $6.5MM. Like most clubs, St. Louis takes the “file-and-trial” approach and won’t continue negations on a one-year salary past the filing deadline.

Even “file-and-trial” teams are typically willing to discuss multi-year pacts after exchanging figures, however. Edman said he hasn’t heard anything about a multi-year deal to this point but suggested he expects there to be some discussion between the team and his representatives before the hearing. Edman has between four and five years of service time. A two-year deal would allow the sides to avoid a hearing without affecting his free agent trajectory.

Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, Bloom, Payroll, Injuries

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to reporters at the club’s Winter Warm-up fan event today about a variety of topics, including the future of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in St. Louis. Beyond those discussions, Mozeliak also addressed his own future as the head of the club’s baseball operations department as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.

When asked if he still intended to step back from running baseball operations in St. Louis by the end of his current contract with the club in 2025 as he indicated last winter, Mozeliak stood by those previous comments. “I would imagine that’s going to stay pretty true,” he told Jones and other reporters. “I don’t want to sit up here on January 13 and retire, but I think having a succession plan and uncoupling some of the things I’ve been involved in at such a high level…it’s probably reasonable to think that having a different voice at some point would make a lot of sense.”

As Jones notes, the comments from Mozeliak serve to highlight the club’s recent hiring of former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom in an advisory role. While the hire was only announced earlier this week, Mozeliak indicated today that Bloom has been advising the several months and that the club’s acquisitions this offseason have been “bounce(d) off” the club’s new hire. Mozeliak went as far as to note that Bloom has factored into discussions with chairman Bill DeWitt III regarding the future of the baseball operations department following Mozeliak’s eventual move away from leading the club, though he went on to note GM Mike Girsch and scouting director Randy Flores as other potential candidates.

Mozeliak also discussed the club’s payroll in a way that seemingly leaves the door more widely open to the club making additional moves this winter than previously thought. Though DeWitt indicated recently that the club was close to reaching the limits of its budget, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that Mozeliak left the door open to further roster additions with comments to reporters earlier today.

“The budget question always comes up. Payroll question. It’s probably not as black and white as people would like to think it is,” Mozeliak said (as relayed by Frederickson), “Depending on what the type of investment might look like, it’s something we can always take to ownership if we feel like it’s important or a good value. But do I think there is some room in the payroll if we needed to? Yes.”

The comments largely track with those Mozeliak made early in the offseason, stating that the club needed to add “at least two” high-leverage relief arms to its bullpen mix this offseason. While the addition of veteran right-hander Andrew Kittredge surely accounts for one of those additions, the club’s other bullpen additions have been less impactful. Right-handers Nick Robertson, Wilking Rodriguez, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez all add depth to the St. Louis bullpen, the quartet has just 26 2/3 innings of combined big league experience. Plenty of quality bullpen arms who could bolster the Cardinals’ late-inning mix remain, though they’ve previously been connected to right-hander Phil Maton and left-hander Matt Moore.

In addition to those comments, Mozeliak provided updates on a trio of injured position players, noting (per Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that shortstop Tommy Edman is recovering well from the wrist surgery he underwent back in October while also adding that both outfielder Dylan Carlson and utilityman Brendan Donovan are expected to be ready for Spring Training next month. Carlson underwent ankle surgery back in September, while Donovan underwent surgery on his elbow on August 2.

The healthy return of that trio of players figures to be crucial for the Cardinals as they look to rebound from a 71-91 record that saw them finish last in the NL Central last season. Edman provides the club with valuable versatility thanks to his ability to capably handle both shortstop and center field on an everyday basis, while Donovan’s .365 on-base percentage in 95 games last year trailed only Lars Nootbaar’s .367 figure among qualified Cardinals. Carlson, meanwhile, struggled badly in 2023 but could join Nootbaar and Jordan Walker as one of the club’s regular outfielders entering 2024 as he looks to recapture the form he flashed in 2021, when hit .266/.343/.437 in 619 trips to the plate while roving between all three outfield spots.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Tommy Edman Underwent Arthroscopic Wrist Surgery In October

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Cardinals utility player Tommy Edman underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in October, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells John Denton of MLB.com. The Cards are hoping that Edman will be ready for Spring Training.

Edman, 29 in May, spent some time on the injured list last year due to inflammation in that wrist, missing almost a month from early July until early August. Per Denton’s report, the issue continued to bother him even after he returned from the IL.

Perhaps that explains why Edman’s production at the plate fell off relative to the previous season. He hit .265/.324/.400 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 106 but that line dipped a bit to .248/.307/.399 last year, with the wRC+ dropping to 92.

Edman is going to be a key contributor for the club in 2024, though his exact role is to be determined. He currently projects to be the club’s center fielder, with prospect Masyn Winn set to take over as the everyday shortstop. However, Winn hit just .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances and isn’t a lock to hold down the job all year long. That could perhaps lead to Edman moving to shortstop and someone like Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbaar taking over in center.

In addition to those two positions, Edman has played second base, third base and the outfield corners, generally getting excellent grades for his glovework regardless of where he’s lined up. That will give the club plenty of opportunity to slot him into the lineup, even as the season rolls along and circumstances change due to injuries, prospect promotions or transactions. The club will therefore be hoping that his rehab proceeds as planned and he doesn’t experience any setbacks between now and the start of the season.

MLBTR Poll: Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam

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The Cardinals have made clear their intention to pursue plenty of pitching help as they attempt to return to contention in 2024. While the deep class of pitchers set to be available provides the club with ample opportunities to dip into free agency, it’s no secret that the Cardinals have an excess of outfield talent. Each of Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill play the outfield exclusively for St. Louis, while multi-positional options Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman saw plenty of time in the outfield as well during the 2023 campaign.

That led the Cardinals to field trade offers on their glut of outfield talent at the trade deadline, though none of their position players ultimately ended up moving besides pending free agent shortstop Paul DeJong. Those talks could begin anew this coming offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore the trade market for potential pitching additions. Walker and Nootbaar were both regarded as essentially untouchable at the deadline, and it seems likely that they’ll be similarly protected from trade talks this offseason. That being said, each of Carlson, O’Neill, Edman, and Donovan found their names in the rumor mill this past season. Let’s take a look at each of them:

Dylan Carlson (0.2 fWAR in 2023)

Carlson, who celebrated his 25th birthday earlier this week, is coming off a major down season in 2023 where he slashed just .219/.318/.333 in 255 plate appearances. Despite those brutal numbers, Carlson reportedly received interest from multiple clubs at the trade deadline, including the Yankees and Orioles. As a young switch-hitter who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and is under team control through the 2026 campaign, Carlson could once again be a sought-after change of scenery candidate. That being said, his value is likely at an all time low after undergoing ankle surgery in September (though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training) and posting the worst offensive season of his career in 2023. Given Carlson’s remaining team control, it’s possible the Cardinals would be better off holding onto their former top prospect in hopes he can rebound in 2024 and improve his stock. On the other hand, another difficult season for Carlson in 2024 could squander whatever remaining interest clubs have in prying him away from St. Louis.

Tyler O’Neill (0.8 fWAR in 2023)

Much like Carlson, O’Neill is also coming off something of a down season, having slashed just .231/.312/.403 in 266 trips to the plate in 2023. As uninspiring as those numbers may be, O’Neill is just two seasons removed from a sensational 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 with a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in 138 games. What’s more, O’Neill posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023, with a 25.2% strikeout rate. If O’Neill can find a way to balance the power he flashed in 2021 with his improved plate discipline in 2023, he could be an impactful offensive player for just about any club. That being said, with just one year of team control remaining before O’Neill hits free agency, he would likely generate the smallest return package of any of the players listed here. With contention in 2024 uncertain, it’s easy to make the argument that the Cardinals would be wise to deal O’Neill while they still can, though it’s also fair to wonder if they’d be selling too low on a player with an exciting offensive ceiling.

Brendan Donovan (2.1 fWAR in 2023)

Donovan, 26, made good on a strong rookie campaign during his sophomore season, slashing .284/.365/.422 while flashing improved power numbers in 371 trips to the plate. Donovan underwent season-ending surgery on the day of the trade deadline this year after being relegated to DH-only duties for much of the season thanks to a flexor tendon injury. Fortunately, Donovan is expected to be ready Spring Training in 2024 and, when healthy, is a premiere utility option who would be of interest to virtually any club. To this point in his career, Donovan has logged time at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Between his versatility, solid bat, and the fact that he’s not yet even eligible for arbitration, Donovan is easily the most attractive trade candidate on this list who would deliver the strongest return, though it would be a major loss for the Cardinals offense if the club parted with a player of Donovan’s caliber.

Tommy Edman (2.3 fWAR in 2023)

Perhaps the most surprising candidate to appear on this list, Edman came into the 2023 campaign having spent the overwhelming majority of his career on the infield dirt as a shortstop and second baseman. That changed this season, however, as Edman split his time between second base, shortstop, and center field, taking his role in center quite well. While Edman slashed just .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) in 137 games with the club this year, his quality defense at three up the middle positions and roughly league average switch-hitting bat would make him an attractive trade candidate for virtually any team. Edman is controlled through the 2025 campaign, giving him more value on the trade market than a rental bat like O’Neill even as he doesn’t come with the same extensive team control as Carlson or Donovan.

———————

With the Cardinals looking to completely revamp their pitching staff in 2023, it would be a shock if the club didn’t at least look into dealing from its surplus of outfield depth while they attempt to return to contention following a 91-loss season. If they do move on from one of the aforementioned players, which should they look to deal? O’Neill or Carlson departing likely wouldn’t set the 2024 club back very much on offense, though they presumably wouldn’t garner a very significant return as the club looks to add big league-ready pitching options. On the other hand, the club would be far more likely to land a bona fide rotation-caliber arm if they dealt Donovan or Edman, but the 2024 team’s positional group would take a far more significant step back in losing either player’s versatility.

(poll link for app users)

Which Outfielder Should The Cardinals Move?
Tyler O'Neill 57.94% (3,666 votes)
Dylan Carlson 24.83% (1,571 votes)
Tommy Edman 9.91% (627 votes)
Brendan Donovan 7.32% (463 votes)
Total Votes: 6,327

Cardinals Select Masyn Winn

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The Cardinals announced they’ve selected the contract of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn. In a corresponding move, St. Louis is placing center fielder Lars Nootbaar on the 10-day injured list with a lower abdominal contusion, tweets John Denton of MLB.com. The Cardinals already had two vacancies on the 40-man roster.

Winn was St. Louis’ second-round pick out of a Texas high school three years ago. The canceled minor league season kept him from playing in a professional game until 2021. Winn has rapidly climbed the minor league ladder, spending most of last season in Double-A at age 20. He stole 28 bases while hitting .258/.349/.432 in 86 games against generally older competition, cementing himself as one of the sport’s top prospects heading into last winter.

The Cards assigned Winn to Triple-A Memphis this year. He has spent the entire season there, posting a .283/.356/.465 batting line in 494 plate appearances. The slash stats are aided by an offense-heavy Triple-A environment. Of the 107 International League hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, Winn ranks 57th in on-base percentage and 43rd in slugging.

That production is partially weighed down by a very slow start to the year. Winn hit only .223/.287/.321 in April but has an OPS of .763 or better in every subsequent month. The right-handed hitter has feasted on southpaws, hitting .353/.425/.639 with the platoon advantage. His production against same-handed pitching is more modest — .258/.331/.401 — but that’s a small concern for a 21-year-old hitter at the top minor league level.

Winn has shown advanced contact skills, drawing walks at a decent 8.9% clip while striking out in only 16.8% of his plate appearances. He has connected on 17 home runs, 15 doubles and seven triples and gone 17-19 in stolen base attempts.

In addition to those promising offensive traits, Winn has a chance to be an impact middle infield defender. Prospect evaluators credit him with elite arm strength and the athleticism to stick at shortstop. While the Cards gave him 25 starts at the keystone in Memphis to broaden his flexibility, Winn has logged more than 2300 professional innings at shortstop.

Given the well-rounded profile and his upper minors success despite being so young, Winn is unanimously regarded as one of the top minor league talents. Baseball America ranked him the game’s #30 prospect on their recent update; Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted him 16th on his own refresh of the sport’s top prospects earlier in the week. Evaluators peg Winn’s power potential as solid-average while praising the rest of his profile.

The 5’11” infielder is generally viewed as the Cards’ potential long-term starting shortstop. St. Louis dealt Paul DeJong to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Tommy Edman has been the primary shortstop of late but is capable of moving around the diamond. Nootbaar will be out of action for at least the next week and a half after fouling a ball off his groin last night, while second baseman Nolan Gorman hit the 10-day IL this afternoon because of a lower back strain. Edman can cover the keystone or center field while the Cards give Winn regular run at shortstop over the season’s final six-plus weeks.

Along with the injuries to Nootbaar and Gorman, the calendar itself opened a path to Winn’s promotion. Players enter a season with rookie eligibility so long as they’ve spent fewer than 46 days on an MLB active roster and tallied 130 or fewer big league at-bats. Beginning Friday, there’ll be 45 days left in the regular season. Assuming the Cards limit his playing time to keep him from topping 130 at-bats, he’ll retain his rookie eligibility into 2024.

Before 2022, a player’s rookie status wouldn’t matter much to clubs in timing their promotions. The Prospect Promotion Incentive in the ’22 collective bargaining agreement now makes that a factor in some cases. A position player who had appeared on at least two Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline the preceding offseason can earn his club a bonus draft choice if a) the team carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year and b) the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.

Winn will certainly meet the prospect criteria next winter. Whether the Cardinals carry him on the MLB roster for all of 2024 and if he plays well enough to merit award consideration can’t yet be known. By waiting until August 18 to bring him up, however, the Cardinals are keeping that possibility open (again assuming Winn stays under 131 at-bats through season’s end).

If he’s in the majors through year’s end, Winn will conclude this season with 45 days of service. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2026 campaign at the earliest and is controllable through at least 2029. Future assignments to the minors could push that trajectory back further.

The more immediate focus for both Winn and the club will be on his initial exposure to big league pitching. He’ll have a month and a half to try to stake an early claim to the shortstop job heading into 2024. St. Louis has Edman, Gorman and Brendan Donovan (who’s out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery) also in the middle infield mix. If Winn puts a strong foot forward over the coming weeks, perhaps that’d increase the front office’s willingness to part with a middle infielder in an offseason trade as they look for ways to overhaul three-fifths of their rotation.

Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported Winn’s promotion.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks

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The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.

Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.

A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.

Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.

Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.

Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.

Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.

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