Yankees, Rays Set Game 5 Starters
It will be Gerrit Cole against Tyler Glasnow in tomorrow’s deciding Game 5 of the ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Rays. New York recorded a 5-1 win in Game 4 tonight to force the winner-take-all contest on Friday at Petco Park (the Rays will be the designated home team).
It isn’t any shock that Cole will get the call for the Yankees’ biggest game of the season. Signed to a nine-year, $324MM free agent deal last winter, Cole lived up to that ace billing in the regular season and is 2-0 in two playoff starts. The home run issues that plagued Cole during the season have again been something of an issue in the postseason, as he has surrendered three long balls in 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching during these playoffs.
Two of those homers came in Game 1 of the ALDS, though Cole held on for a quality start in allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings of work, while recording eight strikeouts. Counting the regular season, Game 5 will be the fifth time the Rays have faced Cole in 2020. It will also mark the first time in Cole’s eight-year career that he has started a game on only three days’ rest, though it’s safe to assume manager Aaron Boone will have his entire cadre of pitchers available should Cole run into any early struggles.
The same tactic will almost surely apply for Glasnow and the Rays, as Glasnow will start on just two days’ rest after pitching five innings in Game 2 (allowing four runs on three hits and three walks, with 10 strikeouts). Given the even shorter amount of time between games for Glasnow, he might also be a candidate for a quick hook from Rays manager Kevin Cash. It is also possible Glasnow could be less a proper starter and more of a glorified opener, as Tampa Bay would be pleased to get as many innings as they can from Glasnow before turning things over to their deep bullpen.
Tyler Glasnow Returns To Rays’ Camp
11:00am: Glasnow previously tested positive for COVID-19, thus explaining his absence, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was among those to cover (Twitter links). Fortunately, he never experienced significant symptoms and has obviously now been cleared of the disease.
Glasnow says he fully expects to be ready for the Opening Day roster.
10:05am: Rays righty Tyler Glasnow finally appeared in Summer Camp today. Better still, he was able to take the hill in the team’s intrasquad game, as Juan Toribio of MLB.com covers on Twitter.
One of the highest-ceiling hurlers in all of baseball, Glasnow just might hold the key to the Rays’ hopes in 2020. The 26-year-old looked like an elite starter in an injury-shortened 2019 season, working to a 1.78 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 60 2/3 frames.
The big stuff was on display this spring, as Glasnow reemerged after offseason wrist surgery (which itself followed a lengthy layoff for a forearm strain). The hope was that the coronavirus pause would give Glasnow a chance to rest up fully in preparation for a 60-game sprint.
Anticipation met the realities of the covid world when Summer Camp opened and Glasnow was nowhere to be seen. We still don’t know what precipitated his absence, though answers could now be forthcoming.
With the delayed training, it’s fair to wonder whether Glasnow will be at full tilt when the season opens in just a week and a half. But the fact he is throwing multiple frames today suggests he has maintained a throwing program and is in good health. It’s a significant boon to the Rays’ outlook.
Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows
The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow‘s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows‘ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”
Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.
Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.
For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).
The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.
Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.
Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich‘s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.
In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lorenzen, Chatwood
The Pirates were “behind the times” in their approach to developing pitchers under the previous front-office/coaching regime, right-hander Tyler Glasnow opines in a fascinating interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Glasnow details the manner in which the Pirates emphasized pitching down and inside even as the rest of the league evolved to attacking the top of the strike zone with four-seamers and ramping up the usage of breaking balls. The right-hander calls the Pirates’ approach “a good strategy for [2013-15]” but an outdated one in the current era of data-driven approaches to pitching and game-planning. Glasnow explains how he began working at the top of the strike zone on his own toward the end of his time as a Pirate — he was never approached by the club about doing so — and that was the first thing the Rays encouraged him to do following the trade. The interview is rife with interesting (and, if you’re a Pirates fan, frustrating) quotes from Glasnow and is well worth a full look regardless of which team you follow.
Taking a look elsewhere in the division…
- The “two-way player” criteria established by Major League Baseball within this winter’s slate of rule changes puts National League clubs at a disadvantage, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). The rules, which stipulate that a pitcher who wishes to gain two-way designation must start 20 games as a position player (with three plate appearances per start), appear to have been written with Shohei Ohtani in mind (and perhaps Brendan McKay) but don’t allow for someone like the Reds‘ Michael Lorenzen to easily attain that status. Lorenzen played 29 games in center last season, including six starts. In two of those instances, he played every inning of an extra-inning game in the outfield, and in another he came in to throw two innings of relief before returning to center. Lorenzen called the criteria “obnoxious” in chatting with Rosenthal, who notes that the Reds are among the teams that have approached the league about the issue. Over the past two seasons, Lorenzen has batted .241/.302/.468 with five home runs in 87 plate appearances. He logged 89 innings in center field last season after serving as a frequent pinch-hitter a year prior in 2018.
- Cubs skipper David Ross has at least considered utilizing righty Tyler Chatwood as a multi-inning reliever, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Ross still calls Chatwood the favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation, but he also points to Chatwood hitting 99 mph out of the bullpen and the fact that he pitched in every inning while functioning in various roles last season. Ross likens Chatwood to Kenta Maeda, suggesting that he could function as a starter for much of the season before shifting to a multi-inning relief option late in the year and potentially into the postseason. If Chatwood once again struggles as a starter early in the season, it seems likely the organization will shift him back into that role and look to alternative options in the rotation.
Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty
While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…
- Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
- Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.
Tyler Glasnow On Track For Spring Training After November Wrist Surgery
Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow underwent right wrist surgery in November but is on track to be ready for the beginning of Spring Training, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Glasnow underwent a median nerve compression but is already throwing without issue (and had a bullpen session today, per Topkin).
It’s good news for the Rays that the 26-year-old appears to be on track for a regular Spring Training, though the fact that he went through the procedure at all is still of note. Glasnow missed more than three months of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain, and a fairly recent surgery on his pitching wrist will give the Rays extra reason to be cautious with the burgeoning star in 2020.
The 2019 season looks very much like the type of breakout many believed possible for Glasnow dating back to his days as a top prospect in the Pirates’ system. While the aforementioned forearm issue shelved him from May 26 through Sept. 8 and limited him to 60 2/3 regular-season innings, Glasnow was nothing short of elite in that time. He pitched to an immaculate 1.78 ERA with similarly excellent marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics (2.26 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, 3.18 SIERA). The towering right-hander induced grounders at better than a 50 percent clip, struck out nearly a third of the hitters he faced and maintained a tidy 6.1 percent walk rate.
A healthy Glasnow should be a major piece in what looks like an outstanding Rays rotation in 2020. He’ll join Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos as rotation options for manager Kevin Cash as the Rays take aim at a return trip to the postseason.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Rays To Activate Tyler Glasnow
Sunday: Glasnow has officially been activated from the injured list to start this afternoon’s game against Toronto.
Friday: The Rays will activate righty Tyler Glasnow to take the ball to start Sunday’s game, manager Kevin Cash told reporters including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter link). Glasnow, who has been sidelined for much of the season with a forearm injury, is expected to be limited to two or three innings of work.
While Glasnow isn’t going to step right back into a full starting role, that was never the expectation. For one thing, he’s returning without the benefit of a lengthy minor-league rehab schedule. For another, he is needed in the majors as soon as possible with the Rays engaged in a closely fought battle for Wild Card position.
It’s hard to predict how the situation will unfold. Glasnow could perhaps build his arm strength up while working as an opener. Perhaps that’ll morph into something more akin to a typical starter’s workload as the postseason approaches.
Glasnow, who recently turned 26, is a key piece (in the present and the future) for a Tampa Bay organization that is hoping to return to full health in the pitching department at just the right time. Fellow hurlers Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos are also trying to work back to the MLB bump. In eight starts to open the year, Glasnow pitched to a 1.86 ERA in 48 1/3 innings.
AL Notes: Glasnow, Twins, Frazier
Rays righty Tyler Glasnow seemed to be embarking on an uber-breakout campaign this year before being sidelined with forearm issues. The 1.86 ERA, 10.24 K/9 and 2.31 FIP marks he submitted in his first eight 2019 starts became the talk of baseball for a time and positioned Glasnow as the possible usurper of the Cy Young throne held by teammate Blake Snell.
Since hitting the injured list, Glasnow has embarked on a lengthy rehab that could culminate in the coming week. MLB.com writer Juan Toribio passes on that Glasnow will pitch two innings for the clubs Durham affiliate on Monday, whereafter the org will decide on the location of his next appearance (link).
To truly help a 79-58 team trying to break through the postseason barricades, Glasnow will need to be in top form when he returns to the team–a return that is expected to be in a short relief capacity. Still, this latest stop in his rehab suggests that Tampa could soon be making one of the most impactful additions of the AL playoff race this month. With tonight’s win over Cleveland, the Rays entered into a tie with Oakland for the second Wild Card play-in spot.
Two more notes from AL contenders…
- Somehow, the Twins hit six home runs tonight and still lost a 10-7 decision to the lowly Tigers. However, this would be called “burying the lead” in journalism: the real story is that the final home run of the night–a blast off the bat of Mitch Garver in the ninth inning–brought Minnesota’s home run total to 268 on the year, setting a new single-season team record. Though this record doesn’t have obvious trade or free agent implications, it’s still an impressive mark for a team that was largely debrided for organizational inactivity this offseason. Amazingly, the club has already received 20-plus homers from seven different players, with 38 home runs coming from the catching position alone (which is itself a record for an American League team). It’s hardly a surprise that such a powerful club holds an 83-52 record and +172 Run Differential, not to mention a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central. The home run record was previously held by last year’s Yankees team.
- Tomorrow will likely see social media ablaze with news of Sept. 1 roster call-ups, but word of one particular promotion stood out from the transaction morass today. Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier is a player of considerable pedigree who has mostly logged solid offensive results at the major league level (103 wRC+ in 392 career at-bats). Nonetheless, his team saw fit to demote Frazier to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in June, sparking both trade rumors and reports that highlighted an organizational mandate to Frazier regarding his suspect defense. September hope will spring eternal for the 24-year-old outfielder, however, as it appears that the man known as “Red Thunder” will rejoin his big league bombers when rosters expand today. Frazier, for one, is excited: “Honestly feels like the first time I got called up all over again,” Frazier told Conor Foley of The Times-Tribune in Scranton (link). While in Triple-A this year, the right-handed hitter produced a .244/.302/.431 batting line.
AL Notes: Rays, O’s, Alberto, Tigers, Hardy
Let’s kick off the week with updates on a trio of American League clubs…
- The wild card-contending Rays haven’t set specific timetables for the returns of injured starters Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos, but the three figure to come back in that order, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Glasnow, who has been out since early May with a forearm injury and will finish 2019 as a reliever, could rejoin the team in the second week of September, per Topkin. Meanwhile, Snell is “probably 10 days behind [Glasnow] at least,” according to manager Kevin Cash. Snell, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow a month ago. Chirinos has been down for three weeks with an inflamed right middle finger – an injury that has thrown a wrench into a solid season for the 25-year-old.
- Utilityman Hanser Alberto was waiver fodder last offseason, switching teams on multiple occasions before finally settling in with the Orioles for good in March. Since then, the 26-year-old has enjoyed what has easily been a career season. He’s slashing .314/.337/.440 with 10 home runs in 432 plate appearances, and the right-hander been downright dominant against lefties – whom he has victimized for a .402/.422/.540 line over 180 PA. A .446 batting average on balls in play has buoyed Alberto’s numbers versus southpaws, though, and Statcast isn’t really buying into his above-average production. Nevertheless, he’ll garner trade interest in the offseason, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. It’s up in the air whether the O’s will strongly consider moving Alberto, who has played second and third with regularity this year and will enter arbitration for the first time in the offseason.
- Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy‘s season came to an end two weeks ago when he underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow. Looking ahead to the offseason, Hardy realizes his Tigers tenure could conclude next. “You know and I know I might not be in Lakeland next year,” the 32-year-old told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, referring to the team’s spring training home in Florida. Hardy has been a fairly successful reliever in Detroit since he debuted in 2014, but after elbow issues helped limit him to a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 in 44 1/3 innings this year, it’s possible the Tigers will non-tender the soon-to-be out-of-options hurler as he readies for his second trip to arbitration. Regardless, Hardy’s glad he decided to call it a year instead of trying to gut out his elbow problems through the season. The Tigers were on the verge of demoting Hardy to Triple-A Toledo before his PRP injection, leading him to tell McCosky: “I had so many people in my corner say it would’ve been career suicide if I decided to go down to Triple-A and keep pitching through this. If something happened, and they found the tear at Triple-A, it would have been hard to retro it back to a big-league deal.”