Tyler Glasnow: “Would Much Prefer” To Stay With Rays

Tyler Glasnow is among the higher-profile trade candidates around the league. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery last August and will miss at least the bulk of the 2022 campaign. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM arbitration salary in his second-to-last year of club control, Glasnow could find himself on the move after the lockout. It’s possible the low-payroll Rays would prefer to reallocate those funds to more immediate help as they try for a third straight division title.

If Glasnow had his way, though, he’d stick in Tampa Bay. The 28-year-old chatted with Chris Rose of Jomboy Media during a recent episode of The Chris Rose Rotation (video link on YouTube). Asked whether he’d remain a member of the Rays, Glasnow noted some uncertainty but flatly stated that’d be his preference.

Your guess is as good as mine,” he replied.”I hope. I really, really hope. I didn’t get traded before the lockout, so that’s a good sign. … I think if somebody were to call the Rays and give them a really awesome deal or something, (president of baseball operations Erik Neander) is not going to be like ‘no.’ He has to listen to everything. That’s just how being a GM is.

But we have a really good relationship. Time will tell, but I would much prefer to stay a Ray. It would be nice to watch everyone in the beginning of the season and how good the team is and how young everyone is and then try to weave my back in and contribute.

As Glasnow implied, it seems there’s a chance he’ll make it back to the mound late during the upcoming season. The Southern California native suggested he’s soon to begin throwing from 45 feet, the first time since going under the knife that he’ll pick up a ball. Glasnow noted there’s sure to be some variability in recovering from such a significant procedure and pointed to the many hurdles still in front of him, adding that he’s taking his rehab “day-by-day, week-by-week.” Yet he also suggested he has progressed as planned to this point and didn’t rule out the possibility of returning in August or September.

If the Rays do hold onto Glasnow, it’d be a huge boon for the club if he could make a late-season return. Over 14 starts last year, he worked 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.92 SIERA ball. The 6’8″ hurler punched out a massive 36.2% of batters faced against a solid 7.9% walk percentage. Glasnow has still yet to exceed 111 2/3 frames during an MLB season, but his rate production since the start of 2019 has been elite. Over the past three years, 156 hurlers have worked at least 150 innings as a starting pitcher. Glasnow ranks fifth among that group in ERA (2.80) and FIP (2.87) and sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.1 percentage points).

If Glasnow can hit the ground running late in the season — even if he’s forced to work in shorter stints — that’d be an impact boost for the Rays (or a potential acquiring team) if they remain in the thick of the playoff race. Even if the club has fallen out of contention by that point, getting Glasnow some innings so he can enter the 2023 season with fewer question marks would be welcome. It remains to be seen whether a late-season comeback will be viable, but it’s encouraging to hear it currently remains a possibility.

Glasnow and Rose go on to speak about the Rays’ stadium situation, including the organization’s since-killed plans to split seasons between Tampa Bay and Montreal. They also address the ongoing lockout and the pitcher’s day-to-day routine during his rehab process among a wide-ranging conversation. Rays fans, in particular, will want to check out the interview in full.

Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow

The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.

Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.

Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.

Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.

So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).

As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?

The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.

Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.

Tyler Glasnow Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

AUGUST 4: Glasnow underwent a successful Tommy John procedure today, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). According to Murray, the expectation is that he indeed will miss the entirety of the 2022 season.

AUGUST 3: As expected, Glasnow will indeed have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

JULY 31: Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery next week, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). That not only officially marks an end to his 2021 season, but perhaps his 2022 season as well. Passan adds that he may not return until 2023, though there remains a “small chance” that they’ll find an alternative way to rehab his partially torn UCL before a potential surgery date next week.

Glasnow last appeared in a game on June 14th, at which point the hope was that rehab might be enough for Glasnow to make a late-season return. His latest throwing session put that theory in doubt, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), who adds that the decision for Tommy John isn’t yet official, though it is expected.

Prior to the injury, Glasnow was a clear Cy Young candidate, having posted 2.4 rWAR through 14 starts with a 2.66 ERA/2.76 FIP. He tossed 88 innings with an absurd 36.2 percent strikeout rate and strong 7.9 percent walk rate to go with a 45.3 percent groundball rate. Now, it’s unclear if Glasnow will pitch again before 2023, his last year before free agency.

This is a truly devastating though not wholly unexpected development for the electric 27-year-old. Glasnow’s injury will remain a touchstone of debate, not only because of how his absence will affect the pennant race this season (and next) but because the timing of the injury coincided with MLB’s stricter policy on the use of foreign substances. The causal link there is tenuous, of course, but the connection will continue to be made because of its powers as an analog for the disconnect between MLB decision-makers and the players.

Rays, Cubs Discussed Potential Trade Involving Tyler Glasnow And Kris Bryant/Craig Kimbrel

The Rays were known to be in discussions with the Cubs last Friday about swinging a deal to land Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic shed some light on the talks, noting that the teams kicked around various potential frameworks — including ones worked around Tyler Glasnow or Kevin Kiermaier.

Moving Glasnow would’ve been part of a larger package deal that sent Bryant and Kimbrel to Tampa Bay, Rosenthal writes. It’d have been a fascinating development, since Glasnow’s one of the best pitchers in the league when healthy but facing a prolonged absence. The 27-year-old tossed 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.89 SIERA ball before suffering a UCL tear in mid-June. He’s spent the past six weeks attempting to rehab the injury, but reports from over the weekend suggest he’s likely to require Tommy John surgery, which would keep him out of action for most or all of the 2022 season.

The Rays made the Cubs aware of that possibility in discussions, Rosenthal notes; Tampa Bay wasn’t hoping to sneak Glasnow through a trade without the Cubs noticing he would probably need to go under the knife. Indeed, Glasnow’s forthcoming surgery was a significant roadblock in that kind of deal getting done.

Glasnow is under team control through 2023 via arbitration. If the right-hander were to miss the entirety of next season, the Cubs would’ve only been able to count on Glasnow for one year before he hit free agency. There’d then be real questions about how many innings he could responsibly take on in 2023 after missing nearly two years. The Rays would’ve had to include additional prospects to make that happen, and Rosenthal writes the team was unwilling to part with any of Wander FrancoVidal BrujánShane BazJosh Lowe or Taylor Walls to do so with Bryant reaching free agency a few months from now.

The Kiermaier talks were a little more straightforward, as Rosenthal notes those discussions didn’t involve Kimbrel at all. Kiermaier’s inclusion in any sort of Bryant deal would’ve been to offset salary. (Bryant is playing out the season on a $19.5MM contract, while Kiermaier is making $11.5MM this year and has a $12MM guarantee for 2022, along with a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 club option). In that instance as well, the Rays would obviously have had to send prospects along with Kiermaier to land Bryant.

Ultimately, the Rays didn’t wind up with either player, as the Cubs moved them in separate deals. Chicago sent Bryant to San Francisco for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, while Kimbrel landed with the White Sox for second baseman Nick Madrigal and reliever Codi Heuer. In Madrigal, the Cubs did land an injured big leaguer but he’s expected to be ready by the start of the 2022 season and comes with three more years of team control than does Glasnow.

Since the Cubs – Rays talks didn’t come to fruition, the Rays’ openness to discuss notable players on the big league roster is more of an interesting footnote than anything else. It does, however, speak to the possibility of Tampa Bay exploring something similar this offseason.

Glasnow is making $4MM this season, and his high-quality first half should land him a decent raise in arbitration this winter. His 2022 salary will probably end up somewhere between $6-8MM; even if he doesn’t pitch next season, he’d make the same amount in 2023. That’s still likely to appeal to many teams given Glasnow’s talent, but it’s a fairly sizable chunk of the Rays’ payroll, which typically lands between $60MM and $80MM. It’s not inconceivable the Rays could look to market Glasnow this offseason to a bigger-spending club, freeing up payroll space and either addressing a deficiency elsewhere on the big league team or recouping prospect talent while opening a 40-man roster spot.

That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear; Rosenthal doesn’t suggest Tampa Bay is actively looking to trade Glasnow or feels obligated to shed salary over the offseason. But his involvement in discussions this summer — regardless of how far those talks actually progressed — serves as another reminder of the Rays’ (and teams’ generally) willingness to consider seemingly off-the-wall possibilities as part of a broader effort to set the organization up in both the present and future.

Quick Hits: Rays, Glasnow, Roe, Tigers, Boyd, Mets/Nats

Rays fans can allow themselves some tempered excitement after the latest check-up on Tyler Glasnow. The lanky flamethrower will be shut down for four weeks before beginning to throw again, but that said, they may have located another source of Glasnow’s discomfort, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The latest diagnosis theorizes that his elbow irritation could at least in part be the result of a bone issue, which Glasnow’s doctors will attempt to treat during this period of rest. Of course, much uncertainty remains for Glasnow, whose injury became a bit of a firestarter for the debate around the use of illegal substances. After his injury, Glasnow was vocal in opposition of MLB’s attempt to curtail the use of illegal substances on the mound by way of an in-season mandate.

Neither Glasnow’s injury nor the “sticky stuff” saga will be resolved in the immediate future, however, so let’s turn instead to the latest news on his Tampa teammate: reliever Chaz Roe has cut his rehab short for the time being. Roe has been out since April with a shoulder strain. The latest issue, however, is not with the shoulder, but rather a case of biceps tendinitis, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). It will be another 7-10 days until he’s able to resume throwing.

Elsewhere around the game…

  • Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has been to see a “number of doctors” about the arm discomfort that landed him on the injured list on June 15th. He won’t pitch again before the All-Star break, but there is no structural damage in the arm, per the Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen (via Twitter). Detroit plans to be cautious with the 30-year-old southpaw, adds Evan Woodbery of the Mlive Media Group (via Twitter). In 13 starts this season, Boyd has a 3.44 ERA/3.75 FIP across 70 2/3 innings. In terms of the positive, his 6.4 percent walk rate is better than his career norm. On the other side, Boyd’s strikeouts are down (18.8 percent strikeout rate). If all goes well, the Tigers hope to have a healthy Boyd back in the rotation for the second half.
  • The Mets and Nationals will play a doubleheader today. Both teams will add a 27th man to the roster for the day. In the Nationals’ case, right-hander Ryne Harper has stayed with the team after being optioned to Triple-A yesterday, per the team. He will be available out of the pen for manager Davey Martinez in both games. The Mets, meanwhile, recalled right-hander Yennsy Diaz to be their 27th man, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). There was some indication that Albert Almora Jr. would be activated from the injured list, and that’s still a possibility for game two, Dicomo notes.

Rays Acquire Mike Ford From Yankees

The Rays have acquired first baseman Mike Ford from the Yankees for cash considerations and a player to be named later, both clubs announced. Ford has been optioned to Triple-A Durham. To clear 40-man roster space, Tampa Bay transferred righty Tyler Glasnow from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Ford has appeared in the majors in each of the past three seasons. The left-handed hitter showed plenty of offensive promise as a rookie, when he raked at a .259/.350/.559 clip with twelve home runs over his first 163 MLB plate appearances. Ford, whom the Mariners had selected in the Rule 5 draft the previous year but returned in Spring Training, looked like a potential long-term contributor in the Bronx after that strong debut. He hasn’t been able to follow up on that over the past two years, though.

In 156 plate appearances since the start of 2020, Ford has mustered just a .134/.250/.276 line with five homers. With Luke Voit tearing the cover off the ball last year en route to an MLB-best 22 homers, Ford didn’t have much of an opportunity for regular playing time. Voit’s injury issues this season opened up some recent run for Ford, but the 28-year-old didn’t take advantage. He’s hit just .133/.278/.283 in 72 plate appearances this season with a fairly significant bump in his strikeout rate. That led the Yankees to designate him for assignment last weekend.

Ford’s MLB career is still a collection of fairly small samples. He’s tallied just 319 total plate appearances at the highest level, with a resulting .199/.301/.422 line. Ford has a much bigger body of work at Triple-A, where’s hit a robust .268/.359/.501 in parts of four seasons. With a quality minor league track record, a pair of minor league option years remaining and a low acquisition cost, the Rays felt Ford was a worthwhile pick-up.

Ji-Man Choi has hit very well in limited time between a pair of injured list stints this season. He returned to the lineup this week and figures to assume much of the playing time at first base. Tampa Bay has primarily rotated Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena between DH and the corner outfield this year. Ford’s likely being brought on as an optionable depth player, and he adds another lefty bat to a first base/DH mix that also includes righties Yandy Díaz and Mike Brosseau.

Glasnow’s move to the 60-day IL is unsurprising. The 27-year-old went on the IL this week after an MRI revealed a partial tear of his UCL. He’s hoping to rehab the injury and avoid Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters after the diagnosis his goal was to make it back for a potential playoff run. Regardless of whether he’ll be able to return at the tail end of the regular season or during the postseason, it never seemed plausible he’d be back within two months.

Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media reported that the Rays had acquired Ford shortly before the official announcement. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link) first reported Ford would be optioned to Triple-A.

Glasnow: Enforcing Sticky Stuff Rule Midseason Is “Insane” And Contributed To Injury

Rays starter Tyler Glasnow hit the IL with a partially torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain today, and he feels that MLB’s decision to finally enforce the foreign substance rules on the books is a contributing factor.  In advance of MLB’s new enforcement policy, Glasnow ceased usage of sunscreen, changing the grips on his fastball and curveball.  Here’s what Glasnow had to say (Bally Sports Florida sideline reporter Tricia Whitaker has the video here):

“Do it in the offseason, give us a chance to adjust to it. But I just threw 80-something, 70-whatever innings, and then you just told me I can’t use anything in the middle of the year? I had to change everything I’d been doing the entire season. Everything, out of the window, I had to start doing something completely new.

And then I’m telling you, I truly believe, that’s why I got hurt. Me throwing 100 and being 6’7″ is why I got hurt, but that contributed. I’m just frustrated that they don’t understand how hard it is to pitch, one, but to tell us to do something completely different in the middle of the season is insane. It’s ridiculous. There has to be some give and take here. You can’t just take away everything and not add something. Pitchers need to be able to have some sort of control or some sort of grip on the ball. And I just don’t want this to happen to somebody else, I don’t want a fastball to sail away and hit somebody in the face like it already has.

I understand you need to take an aggressive approach here, but I just think people are going about it all wrong. And I’m sitting here, my lifelong dream, I want to go out and win a Cy Young, I want to be an All-Star, and then now it’s all just shit on. Now it’s over. I have to try and rehab and come back in the playoffs. I’m clearly frustrated…people need to figure this out. You can’t just tell us to use nothing. It’s crazy.”

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Glasnow’s sentiments are “shared by a lot of people across baseball — and not just players.”  Dodgers righty Trevor Bauer is another pitcher who takes issue with MLB’s timing on the enforcement, tweeting, “They’ve knowingly swept this under the rug for 4 years. Now they implement a knee jerk reaction to shifting public perception. Hard to hear them talk about “competitive integrity” when they have no integrity to begin with.”

The pitchers who have been speaking up recently on this topic have sound points: this issue could have been tackled with care in the offseason, and MLB should have tried to get players on board.  As the Nationals’ Max Scherzer put it, “The players should have a say in this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will. It just appears that MLB is going to do whatever they want with this.”  The use of “sticky stuff” by pitchers has been an unenforced rule for many years, and forcing pitchers to go cold turkey could bring unintended consequences – including injuries.  MLB’s new “enhanced enforcements” go into effect Monday, though some pitchers have clearly been weaning off the sticky stuff this month.

Rays Tyler Glasnow Placed On Injured List With Partial UCL Tear

2:08 pm: Glasnow’s MRI revealed a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, as well as a flexor strain in his forearm, Adam Berry of MLB.com was among those to relay. It’s a brutal development, considering that UCL tears and flexor strains are often precursors to a Tommy John procedure. The current hope is that Glasnow can rehab the injury without surgery, relays Jeff Passan of ESPN, but it seems he’s in for a significant absence even in the best case scenario. The Rays haven’t released a formal timeline for his return, but he’s been placed on the 10-day injured list.

9:44 am: The Rays are sending Tyler Glasnow for an MRI on his elbow after the right-hander left last night’s start after four innings, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was among those to report. The team announced Glasnow’s issue as elbow inflammation, with the pitcher telling reporters he felt “a little tug” and “tightness” in the area.

It’s an ominous-sounding diagnosis, but Glasnow himself didn’t sound overly concerned. “I think I got it relatively early. I just was like, I don’t want to go back out and chance it,” he said (via Topkin). “The (velocity) and everything was still there. But it just felt not right.” He did note, though, that the issue was more than mere discomfort. Glasnow missed most of the 2019 season with a forearm strain and suggested there’s a possibility his current issue is similar.

Certainly, the Rays will be holding their breath as they await the results of the MRI. Glasnow is amidst a stellar season, having worked to a 2.66 ERA/2.83 SIERA. He ranks fifth among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (36.2%) and sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.2 percentage points). He’s also been a true workhorse for a Rays pitching staff that otherwise tends to heavily leverage matchups, as Glasnow is tied for second in the American League with 88 innings pitched.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Rays Name Glasnow, Snell Starters For First Two Games Of World Series

Blake Snell will end his streak of starting game ones for the Rays, but he’s not going to  wait long to take the hill. Snell will get the ball in game two against the Dodgers, while Tyler Glasnow will toe the rubber in the opening game of the World Series, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Clayton Kershaw is set to oppose Glasnow in game one for the Dodgers. Los Angeles was able to escape the NLCS despite just one so-so outing from Kershaw, but they’re surely expecting more from the all-time great as the World Series kicks off on Tuesday.

For the Rays, expect similar usage from their pitching staff over the first couple of games, but it will be anyone’s guess from there. With days off after game two and game five, manager Kevin Cash will have more options available to him. The days off mean the Rays will probably drop a pitcher from their 15-man unit in order to bring a position player back into the mix, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays went with a 14-and-14 pitch-to-hitter balance for the first few rounds of the playoffs, only adding the additional arm for the 7-day, 7-game ALCS.

Rays starters don’t tend to pitch far beyond the fifth inning regardless, but the extra rest gives Cash some flexibility for how to deploy his arms. Charlie Morton would be on five days rest for a game three start, assuming Cash decides to keep his regular rotation intact. He could then turn to Ryan Yarbrough for game four, or return to Glasnow on three days’ rest.

Purely speculating, Josh Fleming and Jose Alvarado were the ‘last in,’ so to speak, having been added to the roster for the ALCS. Alvarado struggled with his command, while the Rays may not feel the need for a longman like Fleming given the extra days of rest. Shane McClanahan, who made his big league debut during the postseason, could also be an option for removal. On the offensive end, Brett Phillips and Nate Lowe both made the playoff roster for a previous round. Given how much the Rays value outfield defense, Phillips might be the more natural add, especially with Ji-Man Choi healthy and ostensibly filling Lowe’s potential role on the roster.

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