Rays, Cubs Discussed Potential Trade Involving Tyler Glasnow And Kris Bryant/Craig Kimbrel
The Rays were known to be in discussions with the Cubs last Friday about swinging a deal to land Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic shed some light on the talks, noting that the teams kicked around various potential frameworks — including ones worked around Tyler Glasnow or Kevin Kiermaier.
Moving Glasnow would’ve been part of a larger package deal that sent Bryant and Kimbrel to Tampa Bay, Rosenthal writes. It’d have been a fascinating development, since Glasnow’s one of the best pitchers in the league when healthy but facing a prolonged absence. The 27-year-old tossed 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.89 SIERA ball before suffering a UCL tear in mid-June. He’s spent the past six weeks attempting to rehab the injury, but reports from over the weekend suggest he’s likely to require Tommy John surgery, which would keep him out of action for most or all of the 2022 season.
The Rays made the Cubs aware of that possibility in discussions, Rosenthal notes; Tampa Bay wasn’t hoping to sneak Glasnow through a trade without the Cubs noticing he would probably need to go under the knife. Indeed, Glasnow’s forthcoming surgery was a significant roadblock in that kind of deal getting done.
Glasnow is under team control through 2023 via arbitration. If the right-hander were to miss the entirety of next season, the Cubs would’ve only been able to count on Glasnow for one year before he hit free agency. There’d then be real questions about how many innings he could responsibly take on in 2023 after missing nearly two years. The Rays would’ve had to include additional prospects to make that happen, and Rosenthal writes the team was unwilling to part with any of Wander Franco, Vidal Bruján, Shane Baz, Josh Lowe or Taylor Walls to do so with Bryant reaching free agency a few months from now.
The Kiermaier talks were a little more straightforward, as Rosenthal notes those discussions didn’t involve Kimbrel at all. Kiermaier’s inclusion in any sort of Bryant deal would’ve been to offset salary. (Bryant is playing out the season on a $19.5MM contract, while Kiermaier is making $11.5MM this year and has a $12MM guarantee for 2022, along with a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 club option). In that instance as well, the Rays would obviously have had to send prospects along with Kiermaier to land Bryant.
Ultimately, the Rays didn’t wind up with either player, as the Cubs moved them in separate deals. Chicago sent Bryant to San Francisco for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, while Kimbrel landed with the White Sox for second baseman Nick Madrigal and reliever Codi Heuer. In Madrigal, the Cubs did land an injured big leaguer but he’s expected to be ready by the start of the 2022 season and comes with three more years of team control than does Glasnow.
Since the Cubs – Rays talks didn’t come to fruition, the Rays’ openness to discuss notable players on the big league roster is more of an interesting footnote than anything else. It does, however, speak to the possibility of Tampa Bay exploring something similar this offseason.
Glasnow is making $4MM this season, and his high-quality first half should land him a decent raise in arbitration this winter. His 2022 salary will probably end up somewhere between $6-8MM; even if he doesn’t pitch next season, he’d make the same amount in 2023. That’s still likely to appeal to many teams given Glasnow’s talent, but it’s a fairly sizable chunk of the Rays’ payroll, which typically lands between $60MM and $80MM. It’s not inconceivable the Rays could look to market Glasnow this offseason to a bigger-spending club, freeing up payroll space and either addressing a deficiency elsewhere on the big league team or recouping prospect talent while opening a 40-man roster spot.
That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear; Rosenthal doesn’t suggest Tampa Bay is actively looking to trade Glasnow or feels obligated to shed salary over the offseason. But his involvement in discussions this summer — regardless of how far those talks actually progressed — serves as another reminder of the Rays’ (and teams’ generally) willingness to consider seemingly off-the-wall possibilities as part of a broader effort to set the organization up in both the present and future.
Quick Hits: Rays, Glasnow, Roe, Tigers, Boyd, Mets/Nats
Rays fans can allow themselves some tempered excitement after the latest check-up on Tyler Glasnow. The lanky flamethrower will be shut down for four weeks before beginning to throw again, but that said, they may have located another source of Glasnow’s discomfort, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The latest diagnosis theorizes that his elbow irritation could at least in part be the result of a bone issue, which Glasnow’s doctors will attempt to treat during this period of rest. Of course, much uncertainty remains for Glasnow, whose injury became a bit of a firestarter for the debate around the use of illegal substances. After his injury, Glasnow was vocal in opposition of MLB’s attempt to curtail the use of illegal substances on the mound by way of an in-season mandate.
Neither Glasnow’s injury nor the “sticky stuff” saga will be resolved in the immediate future, however, so let’s turn instead to the latest news on his Tampa teammate: reliever Chaz Roe has cut his rehab short for the time being. Roe has been out since April with a shoulder strain. The latest issue, however, is not with the shoulder, but rather a case of biceps tendinitis, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). It will be another 7-10 days until he’s able to resume throwing.
Elsewhere around the game…
- Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has been to see a “number of doctors” about the arm discomfort that landed him on the injured list on June 15th. He won’t pitch again before the All-Star break, but there is no structural damage in the arm, per the Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen (via Twitter). Detroit plans to be cautious with the 30-year-old southpaw, adds Evan Woodbery of the Mlive Media Group (via Twitter). In 13 starts this season, Boyd has a 3.44 ERA/3.75 FIP across 70 2/3 innings. In terms of the positive, his 6.4 percent walk rate is better than his career norm. On the other side, Boyd’s strikeouts are down (18.8 percent strikeout rate). If all goes well, the Tigers hope to have a healthy Boyd back in the rotation for the second half.
- The Mets and Nationals will play a doubleheader today. Both teams will add a 27th man to the roster for the day. In the Nationals’ case, right-hander Ryne Harper has stayed with the team after being optioned to Triple-A yesterday, per the team. He will be available out of the pen for manager Davey Martinez in both games. The Mets, meanwhile, recalled right-hander Yennsy Diaz to be their 27th man, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). There was some indication that Albert Almora Jr. would be activated from the injured list, and that’s still a possibility for game two, Dicomo notes.
Rays Acquire Mike Ford From Yankees
The Rays have acquired first baseman Mike Ford from the Yankees for cash considerations and a player to be named later, both clubs announced. Ford has been optioned to Triple-A Durham. To clear 40-man roster space, Tampa Bay transferred righty Tyler Glasnow from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.
Ford has appeared in the majors in each of the past three seasons. The left-handed hitter showed plenty of offensive promise as a rookie, when he raked at a .259/.350/.559 clip with twelve home runs over his first 163 MLB plate appearances. Ford, whom the Mariners had selected in the Rule 5 draft the previous year but returned in Spring Training, looked like a potential long-term contributor in the Bronx after that strong debut. He hasn’t been able to follow up on that over the past two years, though.
In 156 plate appearances since the start of 2020, Ford has mustered just a .134/.250/.276 line with five homers. With Luke Voit tearing the cover off the ball last year en route to an MLB-best 22 homers, Ford didn’t have much of an opportunity for regular playing time. Voit’s injury issues this season opened up some recent run for Ford, but the 28-year-old didn’t take advantage. He’s hit just .133/.278/.283 in 72 plate appearances this season with a fairly significant bump in his strikeout rate. That led the Yankees to designate him for assignment last weekend.
Ford’s MLB career is still a collection of fairly small samples. He’s tallied just 319 total plate appearances at the highest level, with a resulting .199/.301/.422 line. Ford has a much bigger body of work at Triple-A, where’s hit a robust .268/.359/.501 in parts of four seasons. With a quality minor league track record, a pair of minor league option years remaining and a low acquisition cost, the Rays felt Ford was a worthwhile pick-up.
Ji-Man Choi has hit very well in limited time between a pair of injured list stints this season. He returned to the lineup this week and figures to assume much of the playing time at first base. Tampa Bay has primarily rotated Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena between DH and the corner outfield this year. Ford’s likely being brought on as an optionable depth player, and he adds another lefty bat to a first base/DH mix that also includes righties Yandy Díaz and Mike Brosseau.
Glasnow’s move to the 60-day IL is unsurprising. The 27-year-old went on the IL this week after an MRI revealed a partial tear of his UCL. He’s hoping to rehab the injury and avoid Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters after the diagnosis his goal was to make it back for a potential playoff run. Regardless of whether he’ll be able to return at the tail end of the regular season or during the postseason, it never seemed plausible he’d be back within two months.
Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media reported that the Rays had acquired Ford shortly before the official announcement. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link) first reported Ford would be optioned to Triple-A.
Glasnow: Enforcing Sticky Stuff Rule Midseason Is “Insane” And Contributed To Injury
Rays starter Tyler Glasnow hit the IL with a partially torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain today, and he feels that MLB’s decision to finally enforce the foreign substance rules on the books is a contributing factor. In advance of MLB’s new enforcement policy, Glasnow ceased usage of sunscreen, changing the grips on his fastball and curveball. Here’s what Glasnow had to say (Bally Sports Florida sideline reporter Tricia Whitaker has the video here):
“Do it in the offseason, give us a chance to adjust to it. But I just threw 80-something, 70-whatever innings, and then you just told me I can’t use anything in the middle of the year? I had to change everything I’d been doing the entire season. Everything, out of the window, I had to start doing something completely new.
And then I’m telling you, I truly believe, that’s why I got hurt. Me throwing 100 and being 6’7″ is why I got hurt, but that contributed. I’m just frustrated that they don’t understand how hard it is to pitch, one, but to tell us to do something completely different in the middle of the season is insane. It’s ridiculous. There has to be some give and take here. You can’t just take away everything and not add something. Pitchers need to be able to have some sort of control or some sort of grip on the ball. And I just don’t want this to happen to somebody else, I don’t want a fastball to sail away and hit somebody in the face like it already has.
I understand you need to take an aggressive approach here, but I just think people are going about it all wrong. And I’m sitting here, my lifelong dream, I want to go out and win a Cy Young, I want to be an All-Star, and then now it’s all just shit on. Now it’s over. I have to try and rehab and come back in the playoffs. I’m clearly frustrated…people need to figure this out. You can’t just tell us to use nothing. It’s crazy.”
According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Glasnow’s sentiments are “shared by a lot of people across baseball — and not just players.” Dodgers righty Trevor Bauer is another pitcher who takes issue with MLB’s timing on the enforcement, tweeting, “They’ve knowingly swept this under the rug for 4 years. Now they implement a knee jerk reaction to shifting public perception. Hard to hear them talk about “competitive integrity” when they have no integrity to begin with.”
The pitchers who have been speaking up recently on this topic have sound points: this issue could have been tackled with care in the offseason, and MLB should have tried to get players on board. As the Nationals’ Max Scherzer put it, “The players should have a say in this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will. It just appears that MLB is going to do whatever they want with this.” The use of “sticky stuff” by pitchers has been an unenforced rule for many years, and forcing pitchers to go cold turkey could bring unintended consequences – including injuries. MLB’s new “enhanced enforcements” go into effect Monday, though some pitchers have clearly been weaning off the sticky stuff this month.
Rays Tyler Glasnow Placed On Injured List With Partial UCL Tear
2:08 pm: Glasnow’s MRI revealed a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, as well as a flexor strain in his forearm, Adam Berry of MLB.com was among those to relay. It’s a brutal development, considering that UCL tears and flexor strains are often precursors to a Tommy John procedure. The current hope is that Glasnow can rehab the injury without surgery, relays Jeff Passan of ESPN, but it seems he’s in for a significant absence even in the best case scenario. The Rays haven’t released a formal timeline for his return, but he’s been placed on the 10-day injured list.
9:44 am: The Rays are sending Tyler Glasnow for an MRI on his elbow after the right-hander left last night’s start after four innings, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was among those to report. The team announced Glasnow’s issue as elbow inflammation, with the pitcher telling reporters he felt “a little tug” and “tightness” in the area.
It’s an ominous-sounding diagnosis, but Glasnow himself didn’t sound overly concerned. “I think I got it relatively early. I just was like, I don’t want to go back out and chance it,” he said (via Topkin). “The (velocity) and everything was still there. But it just felt not right.” He did note, though, that the issue was more than mere discomfort. Glasnow missed most of the 2019 season with a forearm strain and suggested there’s a possibility his current issue is similar.
Certainly, the Rays will be holding their breath as they await the results of the MRI. Glasnow is amidst a stellar season, having worked to a 2.66 ERA/2.83 SIERA. He ranks fifth among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (36.2%) and sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.2 percentage points). He’s also been a true workhorse for a Rays pitching staff that otherwise tends to heavily leverage matchups, as Glasnow is tied for second in the American League with 88 innings pitched.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21
The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.
We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
- Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
- The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
- The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
- The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
- The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
- The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
- The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
- The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
- The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
- The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
- The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
- The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
- The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
- Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
- Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
- The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
- The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
- The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Rays Name Glasnow, Snell Starters For First Two Games Of World Series
Blake Snell will end his streak of starting game ones for the Rays, but he’s not going to wait long to take the hill. Snell will get the ball in game two against the Dodgers, while Tyler Glasnow will toe the rubber in the opening game of the World Series, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
Clayton Kershaw is set to oppose Glasnow in game one for the Dodgers. Los Angeles was able to escape the NLCS despite just one so-so outing from Kershaw, but they’re surely expecting more from the all-time great as the World Series kicks off on Tuesday.
For the Rays, expect similar usage from their pitching staff over the first couple of games, but it will be anyone’s guess from there. With days off after game two and game five, manager Kevin Cash will have more options available to him. The days off mean the Rays will probably drop a pitcher from their 15-man unit in order to bring a position player back into the mix, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays went with a 14-and-14 pitch-to-hitter balance for the first few rounds of the playoffs, only adding the additional arm for the 7-day, 7-game ALCS.
Rays starters don’t tend to pitch far beyond the fifth inning regardless, but the extra rest gives Cash some flexibility for how to deploy his arms. Charlie Morton would be on five days rest for a game three start, assuming Cash decides to keep his regular rotation intact. He could then turn to Ryan Yarbrough for game four, or return to Glasnow on three days’ rest.
Purely speculating, Josh Fleming and Jose Alvarado were the ‘last in,’ so to speak, having been added to the roster for the ALCS. Alvarado struggled with his command, while the Rays may not feel the need for a longman like Fleming given the extra days of rest. Shane McClanahan, who made his big league debut during the postseason, could also be an option for removal. On the offensive end, Brett Phillips and Nate Lowe both made the playoff roster for a previous round. Given how much the Rays value outfield defense, Phillips might be the more natural add, especially with Ji-Man Choi healthy and ostensibly filling Lowe’s potential role on the roster.
Yankees, Rays Set Game 5 Starters
It will be Gerrit Cole against Tyler Glasnow in tomorrow’s deciding Game 5 of the ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Rays. New York recorded a 5-1 win in Game 4 tonight to force the winner-take-all contest on Friday at Petco Park (the Rays will be the designated home team).
It isn’t any shock that Cole will get the call for the Yankees’ biggest game of the season. Signed to a nine-year, $324MM free agent deal last winter, Cole lived up to that ace billing in the regular season and is 2-0 in two playoff starts. The home run issues that plagued Cole during the season have again been something of an issue in the postseason, as he has surrendered three long balls in 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching during these playoffs.
Two of those homers came in Game 1 of the ALDS, though Cole held on for a quality start in allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings of work, while recording eight strikeouts. Counting the regular season, Game 5 will be the fifth time the Rays have faced Cole in 2020. It will also mark the first time in Cole’s eight-year career that he has started a game on only three days’ rest, though it’s safe to assume manager Aaron Boone will have his entire cadre of pitchers available should Cole run into any early struggles.
The same tactic will almost surely apply for Glasnow and the Rays, as Glasnow will start on just two days’ rest after pitching five innings in Game 2 (allowing four runs on three hits and three walks, with 10 strikeouts). Given the even shorter amount of time between games for Glasnow, he might also be a candidate for a quick hook from Rays manager Kevin Cash. It is also possible Glasnow could be less a proper starter and more of a glorified opener, as Tampa Bay would be pleased to get as many innings as they can from Glasnow before turning things over to their deep bullpen.
Tyler Glasnow Returns To Rays’ Camp
11:00am: Glasnow previously tested positive for COVID-19, thus explaining his absence, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was among those to cover (Twitter links). Fortunately, he never experienced significant symptoms and has obviously now been cleared of the disease.
Glasnow says he fully expects to be ready for the Opening Day roster.
10:05am: Rays righty Tyler Glasnow finally appeared in Summer Camp today. Better still, he was able to take the hill in the team’s intrasquad game, as Juan Toribio of MLB.com covers on Twitter.
One of the highest-ceiling hurlers in all of baseball, Glasnow just might hold the key to the Rays’ hopes in 2020. The 26-year-old looked like an elite starter in an injury-shortened 2019 season, working to a 1.78 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 60 2/3 frames.
The big stuff was on display this spring, as Glasnow reemerged after offseason wrist surgery (which itself followed a lengthy layoff for a forearm strain). The hope was that the coronavirus pause would give Glasnow a chance to rest up fully in preparation for a 60-game sprint.
Anticipation met the realities of the covid world when Summer Camp opened and Glasnow was nowhere to be seen. We still don’t know what precipitated his absence, though answers could now be forthcoming.
With the delayed training, it’s fair to wonder whether Glasnow will be at full tilt when the season opens in just a week and a half. But the fact he is throwing multiple frames today suggests he has maintained a throwing program and is in good health. It’s a significant boon to the Rays’ outlook.
Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows
The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow‘s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows‘ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”
Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.
Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.
For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).
The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.
Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.
Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich‘s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.
In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.