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Dodgers Notes: Hudson, Reyes, Buehler

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Dodgers reliever Daniel Hudson is working his way back after his 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear in his left knee. The veteran righty had been one of the sport’s most effective bullpen arms to that point, working to a 2.22 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage in 24 1/3 innings. Los Angeles rolled the dice on a return to form last September, signing Hudson to a $6.5MM contract for this year with a matching base salary on a 2024 club option.

That positions Hudson for a potential high-leverage relief role, though he might not ready right out of the gate. Skipper Dave Roberts told reporters this afternoon that Hudson’s availability for Opening Day is in question (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). While he’s seemingly past his ACL rehab, the 13-year veteran was delayed in camp after battling ankle tendinitis over the winter.

It doesn’t seem there’s any cause for serious concern. Roberts indicated that Hudson has progressed to throwing high-intensity bullpen sessions in recent days. The issue may have simply held him up long enough in camp he might not be ready for regular season game action within a month, though there’s no indication he’d face any kind of long-term injured list stint.

A healthy Hudson would be an option for late-inning work as Roberts sorts through his bullpen hierarchy. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia also seem like locks for high-leverage roles. Players like Shelby Miller, Yency Almonte and Jimmy Nelson could pitch their way into key innings.

Hudson and Nelson each lost much or all of last season recovering from injury. The Dodgers have shown a tolerance for injury risk in taking upside plays in their bullpen. Los Angeles also extended Blake Treinen (a move that looks regrettable in light of a subsequent shoulder surgery that’ll cost him most or all of the upcoming season) and recently took a shot on former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes. The Dodgers guaranteed him $1.1MM on an incentive-laden free agent deal, securing a $3MM club option for 2024 in the process.

Reyes is building back from a shoulder procedure of his own. He went under the knife to fix a labrum tear last May and has never been viewed as an Opening Day option. According to MLB.com, Reyes has been throwing regularly off flat ground but is not expected to get onto a mound until the end of this month at the earliest. Bullpen sessions would be the precursor towards a potential minor league rehab assignment. Reyes will surely need multiple weeks between his first mound work and a potential return as he builds strength after nearly 18 months since his last game action. He’s a hopeful midseason reinforcement.

Sticking with the theme of rehabbing L.A. hurlers, Roberts said All-Star starter Walker Buehler made a few throws from 60 feet yesterday (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). It’s the first step of a long build in a throwing program for the righty, who underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last August. He’s now a little more than six months removed from that procedure and seems on track in his recovery. The Dodgers haven’t closed the door on Buehler potentially returning in a relief capacity at the tail end of the season, though it’s still far too early in the process to tell if that’ll wind up being possible.

Dodgers Place Three Pitchers On 60-Day IL, Finalize Three Free Agent Signings

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The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-handers Walker Buehler, Blake Treinen and J.P. Feyereisen on the 60-day injured list. The trio of transactions clears space on the 40-man roster for the previously reported free-agent signings of David Peralta, Alex Reyes and Jimmy Nelson, whose one-year deals have now become official.

None of three IL placements come as a surprise. Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season and is expected to miss most, if not all of the upcoming 2023 campaign. Treinen, meanwhile, could miss the entire 2023 season after undergoing surgery to repair the labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder back in November. At the time the surgery was announced, the team provided an estimated recovery period of about 10 months, which would run into early September.

As for Feyereisen, he’s never thrown a pitch for the Dodgers but was acquired in a December trade that sent minor league lefty Jeff Belge to the Rays. The 30-year-old Feyereisen rattled off 24 1/3 shutout innings for Tampa Bay in 2022 and has a 1.48 ERA in 61 innings of relief work with the Rays dating back to 2021. However, he underwent a similar procedure to Treinen (rotator cuff and labrum repair) in early December and is reportedly looking at August as a best-case scenario for his own return.

The Rays entered the offseason with three players on their 40-man roster whom they expected to miss most or all of the 2023 season — righties Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge are recovering from Tommy John surgery — creating enough inflexibility that they opted to designate Feyereisen for assignment and find a trade partner. It’s a long-term play for the Dodgers, as Feyereisen is controllable via arbitration for another three seasons after the 2023 campaign.

The trio of 60-day IL placements are effectively formalities, but this slate of Dodgers moves is also a good reminder that teams can now create roster space for new additions — be they Major League signings, waiver claims or trade acquisitions — without necessarily having to designate a current player for assignment. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently ran through all 30 teams and looked at each club’s 60-day IL candidates to begin the season.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Walker Buehler Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Dodgers star hurler Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery and a repair to his flexor tendon this afternoon, according to announcements from the team and Buehler himself (h/t to Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The club had already announced that Buehler would undergo an elbow procedure that would end his 2022 season, although it hadn’t been clear whether he’d require a complete UCL reconstruction.

While the team has not yet provided a specific timetable on Buehler’s recovery, the revelation comes as a brutal blow. A Tommy John procedure will obviously cost him far more than the remainder of this season. It’s now hard to envision him returning at any point in 2023. Tommy John recoveries often take upwards of 14 months, and Buehler’s rehab process only figures to take longer considering his personal history.

The righty also underwent Tommy John not long after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. He lost the remainder of that season and virtually all of the following year recovering, making just three brief appearances late during his first full pro campaign. He’ll now be faced with a second extended rehab process.

In between the surgeries, Buehler has established himself as one of the sport’s best arms. The Vanderbilt product has a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 MLB innings, striking out a quality 27% of batters faced against a meager 6.3% walk percentage. He posted an ERA of 3.44 or lower each season between 2018-21, earning a pair of All-Star nods in the process. Buehler picked up a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting last year — his highest finish to date — after eclipsing 200 innings with a sparkling 2.47 ERA.

The 2022 season hadn’t been Buehler’s best, as he saw his strikeout rate fall to a personal-worst 21.2% rate through 12 starts. Not coincidentally, he allowed more than four earned runs per nine innings for the first time in his big league career, with opponents bizarrely teeing off on a fastball that had previously been one of his better offerings. Buehler’s velocity remained strong, with his fastball checking in at its customary 95 MPH range, and any efforts to get the pitch’s spin and overall effectiveness back on track were put aside when he left an early June outing with elbow discomfort. That was quickly revealed to be a flexor strain, and the team announced last week that he’d need to undergo surgery after rehab efforts proved unsuccessful.

Relative down year notwithstanding, Buehler would certainly have had a key role on next year’s staff had he been healthy. Now that he’s seemingly unlikely to factor into the mix at any point, the Dodgers figure to aggressively target rotation help during the upcoming offseason. Clayton Kershaw will be a free agent after signing a one-year deal last winter. The club would no doubt welcome him back if Kershaw wants to return, but it remains to be seen how the future Hall of Famer will choose to proceed. The Dodgers will also see free agent pickups Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson return to the open market.

Julio Urías is one of the sport’s top pitchers, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible for a final time next year. The Dodgers recently welcomed back flamethrowing Dustin May from a Tommy John rehab of his own, while Tony Gonsolin has carried over his smaller-sample excellence through a career-high 22 starts this season. That’s three rotation spots accounted for, and young hurlers like Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller could be ready for key roles relatively early in the year. There are still plenty of in-house options, but the Dodgers have aggressively stockpiled pitching depth in recent offseasons. Between efforts to re-sign one or more of Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney plus pursuits of external free agents, the Dodgers are likely to be active in adding to their strong collection of young in-house arms.

Buehler will remain on the 60-day injured list during the seasons, although he’ll need to occupy a spot on the 40-man roster over the winter. He’ll finish this season with more than four years of service time and be in line for a salary boost relative to this season’s $4.25MM figure via arbitration. Buehler is arb-eligible twice more, so the Dodgers are likely to tender him a contract and pay next year’s salary with an eye towards getting him back on the mound for the 2024 campaign.

Walker Buehler To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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The Dodgers announced Monday that right-hander Walker Buehler will undergo season-ending surgery on his right elbow on Aug. 23. He’s been out since June 10 after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 flexor strain. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic tweets that Buehler’s recent MRIs weren’t conclusive enough to determine the extent of the damage in his elbow, but Dr. Neal ElAttrache saw enough to recommend surgery. Presumably, the Dodgers will provide further details once the procedure has been performed.

That injury initially called for a six- to eight-week shutdown from throwing, and the Dodgers had surely hoped that Buehler might be able to make a comeback in late September and/or perhaps in the postseason. Instead, he won’t pitch again until next season at the earliest. Further details aren’t clear, as the team declined to provide specifics on the nature of the procedure in its initial announcement.

Buehler, 28, finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting last season but has now had multiple arm issues this season. Once it was clear that the forearm strain would sideline Buehler for as long as three months, he underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow — an issue he said had plagued him for the past few seasons.

The arm issue(s) have limited Buehler to 65 innings in 2022, during which time he’s posted a 4.02 ERA with a career-low 21.2% strikeout rate. They’re pedestrian numbers by his lofty standards — both roughly in line with the league-average production among MLB starting pitchers (4.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate).

Dating back to his first full big league season, in 2018, Buehler has established himself as a rock in the Dodgers’ rotation and as one of the most talented arms in the National League. He ranks 23rd in the Majors in innings pitched from 2018-22 — even with this year’s glut of missed time — and also ranks seventh in ERA (2.95), 25th in strikeout rate (27%) and 32nd in walk rate (6.2%) amid a field of 152 qualified starting pitchers in that time.

For the time being, Buehler will join both Clayton Kershaw (lower back discomfort) and Dustin May (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Both May and Kershaw figure to return before the end of the regular season. May recently punched out 10 hitters over five innings in his fifth Triple-A start of the season. He’s built up to 70 pitches. Kershaw, meanwhile, recently underwent an epidural injection and has resumed throwing, though there’s no immediate timetable for him to return to the Major League mound.

With that trio on the shelf, the Dodgers will look to Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and rookie Ryan Pepiot as rotation options — though Pepiot could soon be pushed out by May. Even absent a pair of big-name arms like Kershaw and Buehler, it’s a formidable group thanks to breakout performances from each of Gonsolin (2.24 ERA, 116 1/3 innings pitched), Anderson (2.81 ERA, 128 1/3 innings) and Heaney (1.16 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate in 31 innings).

Obviously, not being able to pencil Buehler into a hopeful postseason rotation stings, but the group of Urias, Gonsolin and Kershaw is still a formidable top three, with May, Anderson and Heaney  all standing as potential playoff starters as well. The broader question for the Dodgers is just what Buehler’s recovery and 2023 outlook will be.

Even in the event that Buehler required Tommy John surgery and would need to miss the majority of the 2023 season — which, to be emphatically clear, has not been indicated or even implied by the team — he’d still be a lock to be tendered a contract. The 2022 campaign was the second of a two-year, $8MM deal buying out Buehler’s first two arbitration years. He’ll be arb-eligible four times as a Super Two player, meaning he has two raises to go. Because of this year’s limited workload, he’ll be due only a modest raise on his $4.25MM salary, making it a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him in the fold.

That said, the extent of Buehler’s recovery period will surely impact the Dodgers’ offseason direction and inform the level of aggression with which they pursue rotation help. The Dodgers currently stand to see Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney all potentially walk as free agents, so they’ll definitely be in the mix for starting pitching help this offseason.

Injured List Transactions: DeSclafani, Solano, Buehler

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The Giants reinstated starter Anthony DeSclafani from the 60-day injured list this evening. He’ll get the nod tonight against the Braves, his first appearance since April 21. The righty made three starts in April, allowing nine runs through 13 1/3 innings before hitting the IL due to right ankle inflammation. DeSclafani tossed 167 2/3 frames of 3.17 ERA ball last season and was re-signed on a three-year free agent deal over the winter.

In a corresponding move, San Francisco placed reliever José Álvarez on the 15-day IL due to lower back tightness. The Giants also recalled righty Sam Delaplane and placed him on the MLB 60-day IL to free a spot on the 40-man roster. Delaplane, whom the club added to the 40-man earlier this month, is still working his way back from an April 2021 Tommy John procedure. He won’t be able to pitch in a major league game until at least mid-August and has yet to make his MLB debut. Delaplane will collect MLB service time and be paid the prorated $700K league minimum salary while on the major league injured list.

The latest on a pair of other IL moves with 40-man roster implications:

  • The Reds activated Donovan Solano from the 60-day injured list. He’ll make his team debut whenever he gets into a game. Signed to a $4.5MM free agent deal, the righty-hitting infielder suffered a left hamstring injury that cost him the first couple months of the season. Solano is coming off a three-year stretch with San Francisco in which he hit .308/.354/.435, and he figures to see some time at second and third base in Cincinnati. With the Reds having fallen into last place in the NL Central, it’s possible they’ll look to flip the 34-year-old for salary relief and/or a minimal prospect return before the trade deadline. Starter Nick Lodolo was transferred to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot. That’s a procedural move backdated to the time of Lodolo’s initial IL placement on April 25, so he’ll be eligible to return by the end of the week. The southpaw has been out with a back strain but started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Louisville over the weekend.
  • The Dodgers transferred star Walker Buehler from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list. That opens 40-man roster space for newly-acquired outfielder Trayce Thompson, whose contract was selected as expected. Buehler is dealing with a flexor strain in his forearm and is targeting a late August or early September return, making the transfer an inevitability. To clear active roster space for Thompson, reliever Caleb Ferguson went on the 15-day IL with forearm tendinitis. The left-hander downplayed any long-term concern about the issue when speaking with reporters this afternoon (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Ferguson, who missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, has tossed five scoreless innings over six appearances.

Injury Notes: Zunino, Buehler, Woodruff

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The Rays have been without backstop Mike Zunino for a week, as he landed on the injured list with left shoulder inflammation last Friday. The club has worked to pin down the diagnosis in recent days, and manager Kevin Cash indicated yesterday that Zunino may be dealing with thoracic outlet syndrome (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). He’ll receive a Botox injection in hopes of alleviating the symptoms, and the club expects to have a more defined treatment program by next week.

If the injection doesn’t have the desired effect, it’s possible Zunino would need surgery to address the issue. A thoracic outlet procedure would come with a months-long rehab process and end his 2022 campaign. TOS surgery has become more prevalent around the league in recent years, although it’s been a far more common issue for pitchers than for position players. The Rays have relied on a Francisco Mejía – René Pinto pairing behind the dish in Zunino’s absence, and a long-term or season-ending issue could inspire them to turn to the trade market for help. Tampa Bay could arguably stand to upgrade even if Zunino is able to rehab and work his way back quickly, as the impending free agent is hitting only .148/.195/.304 through 36 games this season.

The latest developments on some other notable injury situations around the game:

  • The Dodgers placed Walker Buehler on the injured list last week after the righty was diagnosed with a flexor strain in his forearm. Shortly after landing on the shelf, Buehler underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow, he told reporters this week (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). The two-time All-Star indicated he’s been pitching through the spur for years and decided it best to remove it while he’s already shut down from throwing because of the flexor issue. The procedure isn’t expected to affect his recovery timeline, and Buehler reiterated he expects to be back on a major league mound 10-12 weeks from now. It’s not clear whether he’ll have enough time to build up as a prototypical starter for the stretch run, but if all goes as planned, he should be available as a postseason weapon for manager Dave Roberts.
  • Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff will join Triple-A Nashville for a rehab start tomorrow, tweets Will Sammon of the Athletic. It’ll be the first of two likely minor league appearances before the right-hander is set to return to American Family Field. Woodruff has been out since suffering a right high ankle sprain in late May. While he recovered quite quickly from the leg issue, he was dealt a bit of a setback when a battle with Raynaud’s syndrome — a condition that causes decreased blood flow to a person’s fingers — resulted in some numbness on his throwing hand. Fortunately, he was able to restart a throwing program within days and is apparently in good enough shape to progress to game action.

Walker Buehler Likely Out Two To Three Months With Flexor Strain

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11:58PM: Buehler will be shut down from throwing for 6-8 weeks, Roberts told Jack Harris and other reporters, as the MRI revealed a flexor strain.  While Buehler will have to rebuild his arm strength almost from scratch afterwards, Roberts does believe the righty will be able to pitch again in 2022.

4:30PM: After Walker Buehler left yesterday’s game with discomfort in his right elbow, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and The L.A. Times’ Jack Harris) that Buehler will be placed on the 15-day injured list.  The team has officially announced the transaction, listing Buehler’s placement as due to a right forearm strain.

Buehler is currently undergoing an MRI to determine the extent and nature of the injury, but Roberts said that the right-hander will miss “a good bit of time.”  Right-hander Michael Grove will be called up to take Buehler’s place on the active roster.  Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015, and though he has avoided any serious elbow/forearm issues since, it is naturally a concern to see Buehler again sidelined with any sort of related injury.  More will be known once the MRI results are revealed, as it isn’t yet clear if Buehler’s season (or beyond) could possibly be in jeopardy.

At the very least, the Dodgers will have a big vacancy to fill in the starting rotation, even if Buehler hasn’t been quite his ace-level self in 2022.  Buehler has a 4.02 ERA over 65 innings, with a very solid 6.2% walk rate but a below-average 21.2% strikeout rate and underwhelming Statcast numbers.  The biggest problem is Buehler’s four-seam fastball, which was at times a dominant plus pitch in 2018-21, but batters have been teeing off on the four-seamer this year.  The velocity has dropped off to an average of 95.2mph, though it isn’t that far below Buehler’s career average velo of 96.1mph on his four-seamer.

The Dodgers could have a rotation replacement for Buehler in relatively short order, as Roberts said that Andrew Heaney is set for another rehab start on Tuesday and could be activated from the IL for the Dodgers’ game with the Guardians on June 19.  Los Angeles also has off-days on both Monday and Thursday, so a fifth starter won’t be immediately necessary in the short term.

In the bigger picture, of course, losing Buehler for a significant amount of time will certainly increase the Dodgers’ focus on adding starting pitching at the deadline.  While L.A. has gotten its typically strong results from its rotation this year, pitching was already expected to be a target area, to add more depth and quality to the starting five.  President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hasn’t been shy about adding major names (including such star pitchers as Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish) to the roster at past trade deadlines, so anything from depth additions to blockbuster deals could be on the table for the Dodgers prior to August 2.

Buehler is sidelined just as Clayton Kershaw returns from his own IL stint, leaving the Dodgers still short of their ideal top of the rotation.  Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, and Heaney now form the current starting five, with Dustin May (TJ surgery) and Danny Duffy (flexor tendon surgery) expected to return at some point later in the season.  Pitchers like Grove, Ryan Pepiot, and Mitch White have also gotten some spot starts this season, and could be called upon again for more rotation work or potentially relief roles depending on how the club opts to deploy any of these hurlers.

Injury Notes: Buehler, Junis, Longoria, Kershaw

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Walker Buehler left his start for the Dodgers last night after just 70 pitches due to right elbow discomfort, per the team. It’s not an encouraging development for the first-place Dodgers. The Giants took the ballgame 7-2, but they didn’t come away unscathed either, with both starter Jakob Junis and Evan Longoria leaving the game due to injury as well. There has been no official diagnosis for any of the three injured players.

On the plus side for the Dodgers, they expect to activate Clayton Kershaw from the injured list today, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). The veteran southpaw had an excellent first five starts before landing on the injured list. Kershaw’s back has kept him out for little more than a month, but he returns owning a 1.80 ERA/2.27 FIP over 30 innings with a stunning 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Depending on the diagnosis for Buehler’s injury, it could mean a quick return from Triple-A for Mitch White, who was optioned on Friday. White had been in the rotation since the end of May, making four turns through the rotation. Combined with his time in the bullpen, White has posted a 3.86 ERA/3.72 FIP in 25 2/3 innings this season.

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