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Injury Notes: Dodgers, Devers, Manning, Houser

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided a host of injury updates this afternoon regarding various relief options for the club as LA hurtles toward their eleventh consecutive playoff appearance, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. While right-hander Tony Gonsolin will not be an option for the club down the stretch this year, Roberts provided updates on a pair of relievers who could still impact the club in 2023: right-handers Joe Kelly and Yency Almonte.

Kelly threw a bullpen session recently but is still struggling with pain in his elbow, per Roberts. The veteran righty, who threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with the Dodgers after joining the club at the trade deadline alongside Lance Lynn, went on the injured list earlier this month with elbow inflammation. According to Roberts, Kelly is expected to return in time for the postseason but there is “a chance he’s not gonna be 100%” when he does. Almonte, meanwhile, has a clearer timeline, with Roberts indicating that the 29 year old is two to three weeks from a return from his knee injury.

Most interesting for Dodgers fans will surely be Roberts’ comments on right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s aiming to return from Tommy John surgery before the 2023 season comes to a close. Buehler hasn’t started a rehab assignment, but Plunkett relays that Roberts still believes Buehler’s long-stated goal of returning to the big league mound for games in September is still on the table, with the manager indicating that the club is planning on Buehler to return to the majors toward the middle of the month. While Roberts notes that Buehler’s stuff is in good shape, his command “hasn’t been good” and is something “he’ll have to work through” on his coming rehab assignment.

Healthy returns to the mound from Kelly, Almonte, and particularly Buehler would substantially deepen the club’s bullpen ahead of the postseason. While the Dodgers have been nothing short of dominant of late with just four losses in August, the club’s bullpen is a potential weak point, ranking roughly middle-of-the-pack in the majors with a 3.83 ERA and having been leaned on for the more innings than any NL bullpen besides those in Cincinnati and San Francisco.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Star Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers underwent x-rays on his wrist after being hit by a pitch during last night’s game against LA and struck from the lineup this afternoon. Fortunately, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relays that those x-rays came back negative, per manager Alex Cora. Cora added to reporters that Devers could return to the lineup as soon as tomorrow, depending on how the slugger is feeling. That’s surely a relief for Boston, as the 26-year-old infielder is perhaps the club’s most important and consistent players. Devers is in the midst of another season right in line with his career norms; since his breakout campaign in 2019, he’s slashed .288/.351/.529 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 131 wRC+. In 530 trips to the plate this season, Devers has essentially replicated that line, slashing .272/.347/.516 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 127 wRC+.
  • Tigers right-hander Matt Manning is preparing to make his next start on Wednesday after exiting his last start with lower back tightness. With that being said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicated yesterday that Manning actually making his start on Wednesday is not a guarantee. Per Petzold, manager AJ Hinch told reporters that the club will “see how the next couple of days are” regarding Manning’s health before determining whether or not he’ll make his start. Petzold suggests right-hander Spencer Turnbull and left-hander Joey Wentz could be options to take the ball on Wednesday should Manning, who sports a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts with the Tigers this season, require a trip to the shelf.
  • Brewers righty Adrian Houser departed today’s start against the Padres after just two innings, having allowed four runs on four hits and a walk. Milwaukee indicated that Houser’s early exit was due to what the club termed “minor forearm tightness.” As relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Houser downplayed the injury’s seriousness in conversations with reporters, indicating he expects to make his next start after taking some time off to rest. Houser’s next start would line up for Saturday against the Phillies, though with a day off on Thursday Milwaukee has the ability to give Houser additional rest without using another starter, should he need it.

L.A. Notes: Kershaw, Buehler, Ohtani, Drury, Trout

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The Dodgers were well-established as searching for pitching upgrades ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline. In the end, they managed to make some minor additions, adding right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly in a deal with the White Sox and picking up left-hander Ryan Yarbrough from the Royals, but failed to land any of the impactful starters that were moved like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Jordan Montgomery. The club had a deal in place with the Tigers to acquire lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, though Rodriguez vetoed the trade using his 10-team no-trade list, which included the Dodgers. After failing to acquire an impact starter at the deadline, the club will have to lean heavily on the group of arms already in the organization down the stretch.

To that end, the Dodgers relayed good news regarding a pair of arms currently on the injured list yesterday starting with lefty veteran Clayton Kershaw. The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer delivered a 2.55 ERA in sixteen starts prior to going on the IL at the end of June and could return to the mound as soon as next week for the Dodgers. As noted by J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register, Kershaw’s most recent simulated game inspired confidence in manager Dave Roberts to the point that he suggested Kershaw likely won’t require a rehab assignment in the minor leagues before returning to the big league club. Per Hoornstra, one more bullpen session is on the docket for the club’s veteran ace before they decide whether he’ll make his return in Arizona on either Tuesday or Wednesday or wait to face the Rockies at Dodger Stadium later in the week.

The Dodgers also had positive news to offer regarding right-hander Walker Buehler, who has missed the entire season to this point while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. As relayed by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Roberts indicated yesterday that Buehler has nearly reached the point in his recovery process where he will begin a minor league rehab assignment. Earlier this season, Buehler expressed a desire to make it back to the majors this year, with a target date of September 1. That goal seemingly remains unchanged, though it was initially thought that a September return for Buehler would likely come as a member of the Dodgers’ bullpen. Roberts indicates that isn’t the case, however, as the righty will be built up as a starter as he aims to return to the majors next month.

A healthy and effective Buehler would be a huge boon for a Dodgers rotation that has seen its starting staff struggle to a 5.86 ERA since Kershaw’s last start back in June. Prior to his injury-shortened 2022 campaign, Buehler had been one of the best starters in the game over the past four seasons, with a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP across 564 innings of work between 2018 and 2021. That included a sensational 2021 campaign, where Buehler finished fourth in Cy Young award voting after throwing 207 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA baseball.

More from the other side of town…

  • Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani exited his start against the Mariners yesterday after just four innings due to cramping in his middle finger, as noted by ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. The Angels phenom stayed in the game as a hitter, but the departure continues a worrying trend of issues hampering Ohtani on the mound, as he dealt with a cracked fingernail and blister on that same finger last month. Since his battle against those injuries began, he’s struggled on the mound with a 5.52 ERA across his last five starts. While the combined thirteen scoreless innings from his last two starts would normally be encouraging, the prospect of Ohtani potentially missing a start is a worrisome one for the Angels, who at 56-54 need every win they can get if they’re to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
  • While Ohtani’s health is in question, the Angels received a positive update regarding the status of infielder Brandon Drury yesterday, per MLB.com. Drury, who has been on the shelf with a shoulder contusion since the end of June, started a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday and is scheduled to play another rehab game tonight. If that goes well, it’s possible he’ll rejoin the major league roster as soon as tomorrow to contribute to an infield mix that has primarily relied on Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Zach Neto, Luis Rengifo, and Eduardo Escobar in recent weeks. When on the field, it’s been a strong season for Drury, who sports a 122 wRC+ in 75 games with the club while playing first and second base for the Angels.
  • While he may not be as close to returning as Drury, the Angels also received good news regarding veteran superstar Mike Trout yesterday. Trout underwent surgery to remove a fractured hamate bone in early July with a four-to-eight week timeline for return. It sounds like Trout’s return may come on the earlier end of that spectrum, as manager Phil Nevin reports that Trout had progressed to hitting off a tee yesterday, per MLB.com, adding that his ramp-up to returning to game action should be a quick one. It’s been a relative down season for Trout, as he’s slashed “only” .263/.369/.493 with a wRC+ of 137 in 81 games. Those excellent numbers may be a far cry from his career wRC+ of 170, but the 31-year-old superstar is well established as not only one of the greats of today’s game, but one of the finest hitters in baseball history.

West Notes: Buehler, Rockies, Blackburn

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery last August, and recently told reporters that the date he’s targeting for a return to action this season is September 1. While not unheard of, a 12-month recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery is a rare feat for pitchers, particularly those rehabbing from the procedure for a second time, as Buehler is.

Despite the seemingly long odds, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted yesterday that the possibility remains on the table, with one notable caveat: Buehler’s return to the Dodgers could come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the starting rotation. If Buehler indeed makes his return later this season as a reliever, it would be a notable change of pace for the 28-year-old righty. 106 of Buehler’s 115 appearances in the majors have come as a starter, and he has come out of the bullpen just once since the start of the 2018 campaign.

In those 10 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen so far in his career, Buehler has struggled to a 11.32 ERA. Of course, such a small sample that’s over half a decade old at this point matters far less than Buehler’s more recent work, which has been nothing short of dominant. Since the start of the 2018 campaign, Buehler has posted a phenomenal 2.95 ERA that’s 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with an equally strong 3.22 FIP in 629 innings of work at the front of the Dodgers’ rotation. The highlight of his career to this point came in 2021, when he made an MLB-leading 33 starts while posting a phenomenal 2.47 ERA (171 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP that earned him a top-4 finish in Cy Young Award voting.

Whether as a starter or a reliever, a pitcher of Buehler’s caliber would surely be an asset to the Dodgers both down the stretch and as they gear up for a hypothetical playoff run. While the Dodgers have a plethora of viable rotation options, Dustin May, Julio Urias, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot are all currently on the injured list alongside Buehler, and both Noah Syndergaard and Tony Gonsolin have spent time on the shelf previously this season as well. Given the number of options that could be at the club’s disposal, and the number of injuries they’ve suffered already this season, it’s near impossible to predict what LA’s rotation could look like come September, whether Buehler is ready for a return or not.

More from around the West divisions…

  • In the same article, Heyman also notes that the Rockies have interest in former Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore for a high-ranking front office role, though the club appears to be content with Bill Schmidt as GM. Heyman notes that Moore expressed he hadn’t heard about Colorado’s interest in his services. Nonetheless, it’s notable that the Rockies, a club that has typically been known for hiring within the organization for their front office, would seek the services of an external candidate. Moore was fired by the Royals last season after sixteen years at the helm of the organization, during which he oversaw the club’s 2015 World Series championship. Moore was hired by the Rangers as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department in November.
  • Athletics right-hander Paul Blackburn is poised to make his first start of the 2023 campaign sometime next week, as noted by Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Blackburn started the season on the injured list with a torn fingernail and had the start of his season delayed further by a blister on his pitching hand, but now appears to be close to a return. The 29-year-old Blackburn got his first extended look in the rotation last season, when he posted a solid 3.62 ERA in the first half en route to becoming a 2022 All-Star. Unfortunately, Blackburn would pitch just 14 1/3 innings in the second half, allowing 14 runs in three starts before heading to the IL with finger inflammation. Upon his return to the A’s rotation, Blackburn figures to help steady a group that has featured little certainty beyond JP Sears.

Walker Buehler Targeting September Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler spoke with members of the media this week, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register, saying that he has September 1 as a target date to be back in the club’s rotation.

This makes for quite an aggressive timeline, as he underwent Tommy John surgery August 23 of last year. While some pitchers have returned within 12 months of the surgery in the past, the recovery period has become more cautious in recent years and returning that quickly has become rare. Furthermore, this is Buehler’s second TJS of his career, having first gone under the knife in 2015. A second procedure typically comes with a longer recovery period than the first, making his Buehler’s target all the more noteworthy.

“The day I had surgery, [Dr. Neal ElAttrache] told me it was one of the best surgeries he’s done,” Buehler said. “Maybe that was just him trying to make me feel good, but I’ve really taken it to heart.” As it’s laid out by Buehler, it seems that his ulnar collateral ligament wasn’t actually torn, as is usually the case for a Tommy John procedure. Rather, the culprit was bone chips and fragments in his elbow. While the ligament was still replaced, the overall structural integrity of the elbow wasn’t as bad as it normally would be for this surgery. “I don’t think anything has happened that would tell me that’s not an achievable goal,” Buehler said of his September target. He’s also open to returning in a relief role if he runs out of time but that decision will be made as the situation progresses.

Whether all of this actually leads to Buehler returning by the end of the season remains to be seen, but it would obviously be tremendous for both player and team if it did come to fruition. The righty has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the majors in recent years. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. The 14.3 wins above replacement he accrued in that time, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the majors. He wasn’t quite as effective last year, with his ERA spiking to 4.02 over 12 starts, though it’s possible the looming injury was already starting to affect him in that time.

Getting that kind of pitcher back just in time for the stretch run and postseason would be a nice late-season boost for the Dodgers, who are currently leading the National League West but with just a three-game lead over the Diamondbacks. The club currently has a five-man rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard, though the latter has struggled to a 5.94 ERA so far and May seems bound for the IL due to a flexor pronator strain. Younger pitchers like Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot have been in the mix but are both currently on the injured list, while Gavin Stone also got a spot start recently. It’s impossible to tell what shape the rotation will be in come September given the potential for other injuries or midseason trades, but there’s no doubt that peak Buehler would be an upgrade.

Buehler is making $8.025MM this year, his third of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player. He’ll be eligible for one more pass through arbitration for 2024, likely making a similar salary due to missing most of 2023, after which he’s slated to reach free agency at the age of 30.

Injury Notes: Seager, Buehler, Maeda, Hiura

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Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is expected to be activated prior to tonight’s game, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The 29-year-old Seager, playing in the second season of a decade-long $325MM contract, has missed the past month due to a hamstring strain. He burst out of the gates with a .359/.469/.538 showing through his first 49 trips to the plate and went 2-for-8 with a double, a walk and no strikeouts in a brief three-game rehab assignment at Double-A. In Seager’s absence, 23-year-old Ezequiel Duran has filled in admirably at shortstop, batting .293/.328/.474 on the season, though his bat has cooled off in the past week or so. Manager Bruce Bochy has been impressed enough that he’s pledged to find “creative” ways to keep Duran in the lineup frequently even after Seager’s return.

A few more injury situations of particular note to keep an eye on around the league…

  • Right-hander Walker Buehler is with the team at Dodger Stadium and will throw in the bullpen for the Major League staff to take a look at his progress in recovering from Tommy John surgery, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Walker is still a ways from being an option in the big leagues. The 28-year-old’s surgery was performed late last August, and the general expectation surrounding him has been that he’ll at best be an option in the final month or so of the season. Still, the fact that Buehler has already had multiple bullpen sessions in Arizona and is slated for more mound work this week at Dodger Stadium is encouraging for both the Dodgers and their fans.
  • The Twins hope that right-hander Kenta Maeda can resume throwing off a mound by the end of the week, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda hit the injured list with a triceps strain after being tattooed for 10 runs in three innings against the Yankees. He’d previously allowed six runs on 12 hits with a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio in 13 innings (4.15 ERA) after missing the entire 2022 season. The Twins’ rotation depth has been tested early, with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepping in for the injured Maeda and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery). A healthy Maeda would again give the Twins six candidates for rotation work, but injuries tend to sort these issues out. And, if everyone is healthy at the same time, the Twins could opt to use Maeda in relief as a means of monitoring his workload after not throwing a pitch last season.
  • Brewers infielder Keston Hiura, currently playing with their Triple-A club, will miss several weeks due to a posterior cruciate ligament injury in his left knee, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Hiura won’t require surgery, but the expectation is that he’ll be out of game action until late next month. It’s a tough blow for the former top prospect, who was hoping to play his way back onto the big league roster after clearing outright waivers earlier this year. He’s out to a .331/.396/.678 start with a dozen home runs through 134 plate appearances with Nashville this season and has trimmed his strikeout rate there to 24.6%. Hiura has had similar stretches in Triple-A before, however, and his familiar strikeout woes have regularly resurfaced upon being promoted back to the big leagues. He batted .226/.316/.449 with the Brewers last year (115 wRC+), but because of a staggering 41.7% strikeout rate, he needed a .355 average on balls in play to get to that middling .226 batting average.

Dodgers Notes: Hudson, Reyes, Buehler

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Dodgers reliever Daniel Hudson is working his way back after his 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear in his left knee. The veteran righty had been one of the sport’s most effective bullpen arms to that point, working to a 2.22 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage in 24 1/3 innings. Los Angeles rolled the dice on a return to form last September, signing Hudson to a $6.5MM contract for this year with a matching base salary on a 2024 club option.

That positions Hudson for a potential high-leverage relief role, though he might not ready right out of the gate. Skipper Dave Roberts told reporters this afternoon that Hudson’s availability for Opening Day is in question (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). While he’s seemingly past his ACL rehab, the 13-year veteran was delayed in camp after battling ankle tendinitis over the winter.

It doesn’t seem there’s any cause for serious concern. Roberts indicated that Hudson has progressed to throwing high-intensity bullpen sessions in recent days. The issue may have simply held him up long enough in camp he might not be ready for regular season game action within a month, though there’s no indication he’d face any kind of long-term injured list stint.

A healthy Hudson would be an option for late-inning work as Roberts sorts through his bullpen hierarchy. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia also seem like locks for high-leverage roles. Players like Shelby Miller, Yency Almonte and Jimmy Nelson could pitch their way into key innings.

Hudson and Nelson each lost much or all of last season recovering from injury. The Dodgers have shown a tolerance for injury risk in taking upside plays in their bullpen. Los Angeles also extended Blake Treinen (a move that looks regrettable in light of a subsequent shoulder surgery that’ll cost him most or all of the upcoming season) and recently took a shot on former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes. The Dodgers guaranteed him $1.1MM on an incentive-laden free agent deal, securing a $3MM club option for 2024 in the process.

Reyes is building back from a shoulder procedure of his own. He went under the knife to fix a labrum tear last May and has never been viewed as an Opening Day option. According to MLB.com, Reyes has been throwing regularly off flat ground but is not expected to get onto a mound until the end of this month at the earliest. Bullpen sessions would be the precursor towards a potential minor league rehab assignment. Reyes will surely need multiple weeks between his first mound work and a potential return as he builds strength after nearly 18 months since his last game action. He’s a hopeful midseason reinforcement.

Sticking with the theme of rehabbing L.A. hurlers, Roberts said All-Star starter Walker Buehler made a few throws from 60 feet yesterday (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). It’s the first step of a long build in a throwing program for the righty, who underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last August. He’s now a little more than six months removed from that procedure and seems on track in his recovery. The Dodgers haven’t closed the door on Buehler potentially returning in a relief capacity at the tail end of the season, though it’s still far too early in the process to tell if that’ll wind up being possible.

Dodgers Place Three Pitchers On 60-Day IL, Finalize Three Free Agent Signings

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The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-handers Walker Buehler, Blake Treinen and J.P. Feyereisen on the 60-day injured list. The trio of transactions clears space on the 40-man roster for the previously reported free-agent signings of David Peralta, Alex Reyes and Jimmy Nelson, whose one-year deals have now become official.

None of three IL placements come as a surprise. Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season and is expected to miss most, if not all of the upcoming 2023 campaign. Treinen, meanwhile, could miss the entire 2023 season after undergoing surgery to repair the labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder back in November. At the time the surgery was announced, the team provided an estimated recovery period of about 10 months, which would run into early September.

As for Feyereisen, he’s never thrown a pitch for the Dodgers but was acquired in a December trade that sent minor league lefty Jeff Belge to the Rays. The 30-year-old Feyereisen rattled off 24 1/3 shutout innings for Tampa Bay in 2022 and has a 1.48 ERA in 61 innings of relief work with the Rays dating back to 2021. However, he underwent a similar procedure to Treinen (rotator cuff and labrum repair) in early December and is reportedly looking at August as a best-case scenario for his own return.

The Rays entered the offseason with three players on their 40-man roster whom they expected to miss most or all of the 2023 season — righties Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge are recovering from Tommy John surgery — creating enough inflexibility that they opted to designate Feyereisen for assignment and find a trade partner. It’s a long-term play for the Dodgers, as Feyereisen is controllable via arbitration for another three seasons after the 2023 campaign.

The trio of 60-day IL placements are effectively formalities, but this slate of Dodgers moves is also a good reminder that teams can now create roster space for new additions — be they Major League signings, waiver claims or trade acquisitions — without necessarily having to designate a current player for assignment. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently ran through all 30 teams and looked at each club’s 60-day IL candidates to begin the season.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Walker Buehler Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Dodgers star hurler Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery and a repair to his flexor tendon this afternoon, according to announcements from the team and Buehler himself (h/t to Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The club had already announced that Buehler would undergo an elbow procedure that would end his 2022 season, although it hadn’t been clear whether he’d require a complete UCL reconstruction.

While the team has not yet provided a specific timetable on Buehler’s recovery, the revelation comes as a brutal blow. A Tommy John procedure will obviously cost him far more than the remainder of this season. It’s now hard to envision him returning at any point in 2023. Tommy John recoveries often take upwards of 14 months, and Buehler’s rehab process only figures to take longer considering his personal history.

The righty also underwent Tommy John not long after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. He lost the remainder of that season and virtually all of the following year recovering, making just three brief appearances late during his first full pro campaign. He’ll now be faced with a second extended rehab process.

In between the surgeries, Buehler has established himself as one of the sport’s best arms. The Vanderbilt product has a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 MLB innings, striking out a quality 27% of batters faced against a meager 6.3% walk percentage. He posted an ERA of 3.44 or lower each season between 2018-21, earning a pair of All-Star nods in the process. Buehler picked up a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting last year — his highest finish to date — after eclipsing 200 innings with a sparkling 2.47 ERA.

The 2022 season hadn’t been Buehler’s best, as he saw his strikeout rate fall to a personal-worst 21.2% rate through 12 starts. Not coincidentally, he allowed more than four earned runs per nine innings for the first time in his big league career, with opponents bizarrely teeing off on a fastball that had previously been one of his better offerings. Buehler’s velocity remained strong, with his fastball checking in at its customary 95 MPH range, and any efforts to get the pitch’s spin and overall effectiveness back on track were put aside when he left an early June outing with elbow discomfort. That was quickly revealed to be a flexor strain, and the team announced last week that he’d need to undergo surgery after rehab efforts proved unsuccessful.

Relative down year notwithstanding, Buehler would certainly have had a key role on next year’s staff had he been healthy. Now that he’s seemingly unlikely to factor into the mix at any point, the Dodgers figure to aggressively target rotation help during the upcoming offseason. Clayton Kershaw will be a free agent after signing a one-year deal last winter. The club would no doubt welcome him back if Kershaw wants to return, but it remains to be seen how the future Hall of Famer will choose to proceed. The Dodgers will also see free agent pickups Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson return to the open market.

Julio Urías is one of the sport’s top pitchers, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible for a final time next year. The Dodgers recently welcomed back flamethrowing Dustin May from a Tommy John rehab of his own, while Tony Gonsolin has carried over his smaller-sample excellence through a career-high 22 starts this season. That’s three rotation spots accounted for, and young hurlers like Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller could be ready for key roles relatively early in the year. There are still plenty of in-house options, but the Dodgers have aggressively stockpiled pitching depth in recent offseasons. Between efforts to re-sign one or more of Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney plus pursuits of external free agents, the Dodgers are likely to be active in adding to their strong collection of young in-house arms.

Buehler will remain on the 60-day injured list during the seasons, although he’ll need to occupy a spot on the 40-man roster over the winter. He’ll finish this season with more than four years of service time and be in line for a salary boost relative to this season’s $4.25MM figure via arbitration. Buehler is arb-eligible twice more, so the Dodgers are likely to tender him a contract and pay next year’s salary with an eye towards getting him back on the mound for the 2024 campaign.

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