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Wyatt Langford

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Langford, Manzardo, Mead, Jones, Basallo

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we visit some notable players at various stages of their journey and highlight three more whose 2023 success could yield top prospect status next season.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(CPX/A+/AA) 174 PA, 10 HR, 9 SB, .359/.471/.697

The Rangers, thirsty to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016, have to be giving consideration to Langford. He received a promotion to Triple-A today for the final week of the minor league season. If that goes well, Langford could be the latest player to debut in his draft year. He’s earned the consideration. Of all minor leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances, Langford ranks second overall with a 202 wRC+. He has more walks than strikeouts along with a .338 isolated slugging percentage. He has 25 singles and 26 extra-base hits.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, CLE (AAA)
(AAA) 313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Seemingly on the cusp of reaching the Majors to start this season, Manzardo instead spent the year in Triple-A and on the injured list. A contact-oriented hitter with a hefty fly ball rate, his approach should play up at Progressive Field. It also yields predictably low BABIPs. Manzardo’s batted ball profile is that of a slugger, but he’s yet to turn that into on-field results. The peripherals are in place for a breakthrough 2024 campaign. The Guardians have an extremely left-handed lineup which could affect how the club plans to use Manzardo.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 52 PA, .267/.365/.356

Another Rays product whose 2022 performance outshined his 2023 follow-up, Mead is currently serving as a platoon bat. A slugger by reputation, Mead has yet to homer in his debut season. He also contributed only nine dingers in 278 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s struggled to make consistent contact as evidenced by his 84.0 mph average exit velocity. The only qualified hitter with a worse average EV is Esteury Ruiz. Likely, Mead will make the necessary adjustments to produce spicier balls in play. It’s not uncommon for prospects to make unexpectedly weak contact in their first exposure to the Majors. Mead’s long-term outlook depends upon him finding 30-homer power.

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (A)
131 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, .252/.366/.351

This year, perhaps no prospect has lost more clout than Jones. A Top 10 prospect entering the season, he’s now at risk of falling off Top 50 lists. Injuries cost his entire 2022 season and most of 2023. Early in the season, he struggled mightily. The good news: there is a silver lining. Since returning to action on August 1, Jones is batting .274/.389/.400 with a tolerable 24.8 percent strikeout rate. His speed and double-plus outfield defense have been on display as well. While Jones has been leapfrogged by other worthy names, he appears to be back on a positive developmental track.

Samuel Basallo, 18, C, BAL (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 483 PA, 20 HR, 12 SB, .313/.402/.551

Basallo began the year as a young power-over-hit catcher with a questionable defensive reputation. He appeared to be half a decade away from a debut – if it ever came at all. He’s now played his way onto Top 100 lists as the latest Orioles breakout. Basallo is built like a first baseman, and it’s where I expect to see him long-term. I believe it’s telling the Orioles have opted to promote him based on the development of his bat rather than his glove. Most catchers meander through the minors as they hone their defensive chops. Concerns about his hit tool appear to be overstated. Given his raw power, he looks likely to make enough contact to float at first base. Fine adjustments might determine whether he’s Rowdy Tellez redux or a first-division starter. In the grand tradition of Carlos Delgado and Kyle Schwarber, Basallo might get some play at catcher before the Orioles bow to necessity.

Three More

Ricardo Cabrera, CIN (18): The latest intriguing shortstop in the Reds system, Cabrera recovered from a disappointing 2022 season by hitting .346/.475/.531 in 202 plate appearances split between the complex and Low-A. He’s already a Top 100 prospect candidate who should find himself in High-A next season.

Yordanny Monegro, BOS (20): The most exciting pitcher to pop in the Red Sox system this year, Monegro combines a number of traits that portend a big league future. He’s built like a starter, misses bats, and can move the ball around the zone. He finished the season in High-A after dominating Low-A where he was old for the level.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz was among the minor league leaders in home runs. His breakout campaign included 33 dingers, mostly at High-A. Not considered much of a prospect entering the season, he should now comfortably rank within the Top 200. He has a chance to reach the Top 100 with a fast start at Double-A in 2024.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie

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Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520

Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.

Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586

A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.

Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA

Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.

Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525

Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.

Three More

Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.

Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.

Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Rangers To Sign First-Round Pick Wyatt Langford

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The Rangers are set to announce the signing of fourth overall draftee Wyatt Langford at a press conference tomorrow, per Jeff Wilson (Twitter link). According to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on Twitter), the University of Florida product will take home an $8MM bonus.

Despite being a college draftee, Langford gets a signing figure a little above slot value. The fourth pick comes with a bonus allotment of $7.7MM. That reflects Langford’s reputation as a top three talent in the class. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had him first on his pre-draft board. Keith Law of the Athletic ranked him only behind Dylan Crews, while Baseball America and MLB Pipeline put him behind Crews and Paul Skenes.

Langford dipped out of the top three, but he lands a higher bonus than the $7.7MM that’ll go to #3 selection Max Clark. The righty-hitting outfielder is regarded as perhaps the best offensive player in this year’s class. He hit .373/.498/.784 during his final year in Gainesville. Langford connected on 21 homers, walked at a stellar 18.5% clip and kept his strikeouts to a tolerable 14.5% rate.

He’s also an excellent runner and figures to get a crack in center field in pro ball. Evaluators have suggested he might be better suited for left field — where he spent a decent amount of time for the Gators — as a result of fringy defensive instincts. Even if he does end up in a corner, he’s expected to eclipse the higher offensive bar necessary to be a quality everyday player.

Langford figures to immediately jump towards the top of a strong Texas farm system. McDaniel’s pre-draft writeup noted he’ll immediately slot into pro ball as ESPN’s #9 overall prospect. He ranks 11th on Baseball America’s updated Top 100, one spot ahead of Evan Carter for tops in the Rangers’ organization.

2023 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round.  The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022.  As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.

The first-round selections….

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
  2. Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
  3. Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
  4. Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University Of Florida
  5. Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
  6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
  7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
  8. Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (TX)
  9. Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, University of Tennessee
  10. Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
  11. Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic
  12. Arizona Diamondbacks: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
  13. Chicago Cubs: Matthew Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
  14. Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
  15. Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University Of Mississippi
  16. San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison High School (VA)
  17. Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
  18. Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
  19. Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B/SS, TCU
  20. Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
  21. St. Louis Cardinals: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
  22. Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High School (OH)
  23. Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
  24. Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, University of Florida
  25. San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
  26. New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep High School (FL)
  27. Philadelphia Phillies: Aidan Miller, 3B/SS, Mitchell High School (FL)
  28. Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight.  Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick.  The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.

The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round.  The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks.  This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.

This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

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