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Yu Darvish

Padres Acquire Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini

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DEC. 29, 10:07pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Cubs will pay $3MM of Darvish’s remaining money, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Heyman. Darvish has $62MM left on his contract – not the previously reported $59MM – because of the incentives he reached for finishing second in 2020 NL Cy Young voting, Bastian notes.

DEC. 28: The Cubs and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from Chicago to San Diego, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The Cubs will receive righty Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena in return. The trade is done pending medical records, and the sides could finalize it Tuesday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  Chicago will pick up “a minor portion” of Darvish’s remaining money, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds.

This deal does not come as a surprise, as the two sides had been in deep discussions about Darvish throughout the day. It’s the latest bold strike for the Padres, who are coming off their first playoff season since 2006 and clearly plan to vie for their first-ever World Series title next year. Even before landing Darvish, they made a huge addition to their rotation Sunday by agreeing to pick up left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays. They also agreed to sign Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, making for an epic 24-hour period of dealmaking for GM A.J. Preller.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are losing perhaps their best starter in Darvish – a 2020 National League Cy Young finalist – as well as a quality catcher in Caratini. Although the Cubs are just a couple months removed from their fifth playoff berth in six years, ownership entered the offseason unlikely to spend after a pandemic-shortened campaign. Indeed, the Cubs previously saved money by saying goodbye to Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora at the non-tender deadline, while pricey third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade speculation. It’s unclear whether the Padres will take on all of Darvish’s remaining contract, but if they do, that’ll be $59MM on their books over the next three years. Caratini’s much more affordable, as he will earn a projected $1.2MM to $1.6MM in 2021. Caratini isn’t on track for free agency until after 2023.

In heading to San Diego, Darvish will reunite with Preller, who was part of the Rangers’ front office when they signed Darvish out of Japan before the 2012 season. Darvish, now 34, has since enjoyed a terrific career divided among the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs, and last season was likely his best yet. He ended up with 76 innings of 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP ball, posted 11.01 K/9 against 1.66 BB/9, and averaged a personal-high 95.5 mph on his fastball. He’ll now slot in near the top of a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery but will still feature Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack as locks for rotation jobs (barring other aggressive moves). The Padres also boast multiple high-end pitching prospects, including MacKenzie Gore.

Caratini, 27, was Darvish’s personal catcher in Chicago, but he was a reserve behind No. 1 backstop Willson Contreras. Caratini debuted with the Cubs in 2017 and has since offered passable offense relative to his position, having batted .250/.327/.372 in 677 plate appearances. Caratini was also a well-regarded defender in Chicago, including when he ranked in Statcast’s 98th percentile in the pitch-framing department last season. He’ll join Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as catchers on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

For the Cubs, this deal represents their first blockbuster trade under new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, their former GM who earned a promotion after Theo Epstein stepped down in November. Losing Darvish and Caratini may not go over well for their fan base, but the Cubs are banking on Davies helping replace Darvish in 2021 and the young talent they received emerging as cornerstones.

Davies was somewhat quietly a top-tier starter in 2020, his only year as a Padre, as he recorded 69 1/3 frames of 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. He should look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021, though the 27-year-old Davies isn’t controllable beyond then. He’ll earn a projected $6.3MM to $10.6MM via arbitration next season.

The rest of the Cubs’ return doesn’t consist of any elite farmhands, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America notes that BA was planning to rank Preciado (No. 15), Mena (17), Santana (18) and Caissie (20) among the Padres’ 20 best prospects in its upcoming Prospect Handbook.

Just 17 years old, BA rated Preciado 23rd in the Padres’ farm system midway through last season, writing that the 6-foot-4 switch hitter’s “frame provides hope he can grow into 20-plus home run power as he matures physically.”

Mena, 18, signed an expensive $2.2MM bonus with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic during the 2019-20 international signing period. BA lauded Mena’s speed, range and potential 15- to 20-home run power earlier this year.

The 20-year-old Santana put up impressive production in rookie ball from 2018-19, when he combined for a .306/.418/.425 line in 365 plate appearances. The Canadian-born Caissie, 18, was a second-round pick (No. 45) of the Padres last summer. BA wrote before the draft that Caissie possesses “exciting upside,” though there are “some significant swing-and-miss concerns” in his game.

All things considered, this looks like a trade between two NL playoff teams going in different directions. The Padres appear to be all in on playing for a championship in 2021. It’s hard to say the same for the Cubs, who seem to be a club in retooling mode.

Padres, Cubs Nearing Yu Darvish Trade

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8:32pm: Padres outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana are other names in discussion, Mayo reports.

8:20pm: Davies and “several prospects,” including 2020 second-round outfielder Owen Caissie, will be going to the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Shortstop Reginald Preciado will also head to Chicago, per Acee, who adds that the trade features “two other prospects.” The Cubs won’t get any of the Padres’ top five prospects, according to Nightengale.

7:10pm: Caratini will be part of the trade once it occurs, but Campusano won’t, Nightengale tweets.

6:58pm: The clubs are close to a deal and appear as if they’ll finalize it tonight, per Nightengale.

4:32pm: The trade looks to be close, Heyman tweets. Caratini would “likely” join Darvish in San Diego, though the Cubs want “some MLB experience” as part of their return.

3:04pm: The two teams are nearing agreement “on the multiple pieces” of a Darvish trade, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads “have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs,” Acee writes.

2:50pm: Top catching prospect Luis Campusano is among the names that has been discussed, Nightengale reports. His inclusion in the deal would give the Cubs a replacement should they send a catcher to the Padres. Campusano would join Miguel Amaya as a potential long-term option at the position with Contreras up for free agency in two years (if he’s not traded in this or another deal first).

2:03pm: There’s “growing optimism” that the two sides will complete a deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, adding that an agreement could come together as soon as today.

12:28pm: The Padres are focused on more than Darvish alone, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). Both suggest that the talks between the Cubs and Padres could be expanded to include one of Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini.

The Padres’ catching corps has turned over considerably over the past year, with Francisco Mejia now with in Tampa Bay, Austin Hedges in Cleveland and Luis Torrens in Seattle. The Friars have Austin Nola atop their catching depth chart, with touted prospect Luis Campusano behind him, but the latter is still lacking in MLB experience. Either Chicago catcher would bolster the group, and Contreras would likely push Nola into a super-utility role similar to the one in which he thrived with the Mariners.

11:56am: Despite last night’s agreement to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, the Cubs are also “deep” in talks on a trade that would send Yu Darvish from Chicago to San Diego, according to Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports first indicated that the Padres were still in the mix for Darvish even after landing Snell. Importantly, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that San Diego is not on Darvish’s 12-team no-trade list, so the deal can be made without requiring Darvish’s approval.

If completed, the Darvish trade could be the next step in another dizzying flurry of headline-grabbing transactions from general manager A.J. Preller. In addition to Snell and the potential Darvish deal, the Padres are also reported to be the favorites to sign KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim. If all three moves come to fruition, this sequence would hearken back to Preller’s inaugural offseason, wherein Matt Kemp dubbed him the “Rock Star” GM — and back to this summer’s frenzied series of trade deadline acquisitions. Few front offices around the game act as boldly and decisively as the Padres when a course is set, and the Snell acquisition clearly looks to have set some dominos in motion.

It’s at least possible there’s a connection between today’s pair of Friars rumors; the Cubs surely want controllable young talent, and a player like Jake Cronenworth would certainly be of interest to them in a Darvish deal. That’s speculative on my part, to be clear, but it’s not hard to see how those pieces could fit into place. Alternatively, if the Padres were to send an outfielder with a notable salary back to Chicago to help offset Darvish’s contract (e.g. Tommy Pham, Wil Myers), Cronenworth could move into the outfield if needed.

Darvish, 34, is still owed $62MM over the next three seasons as part of the six-year, $126MM he initially signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. The first year of that massive contract could scarcely have gone worse, as Darvish was limited to just 40 innings due to a series of injuries that culminated in arthroscopic elbow surgery.

At that point, few would’ve imagined Darvish resurfacing as both a front-line starter and a highly sought-after trade commodity, but that’s exactly what’s happened. Darvish finished second in National League Cy Young voting in 2020, thanks to a brilliant 2.01 ERA and 93-to-13 K/BB ratio through 76 innings. However, his renaissance extends further back than that.

Dating back to Memorial Day 2019, Darvish has made 32 starts and totaled 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. At less than $21MM a year, this version of Darvish looks like a relative bargain, though buying his age-34, age-35 and age-36 seasons obviously still carries risk. Darvish is also a favorite of Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM who played an integral part in scouting and signing Darvish during his time with Texas.

The very notion of a rotation featuring some combination of Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies and MacKenzie Gore is a dream scenario for Padres fans — the type of starting staff that would give the Friars a group to go toe-to-toe with the perennial division winners up in Los Angeles. Few teams in the game could boast such a deep and talented group of starting pitchers, and while Davies is a free agent next winter, the Padres will get Mike Clevinger back from Tommy John surgery for the 2022 season. A 2022 group of Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack and Gore has the potential to be utterly overwhelming.

For the Cubs, trading away some combination of Darvish, Contreras and Caratini would be a painful first step in at least some degree of a rebuilding effort. While the Cubs probably won’t tear the roster down to the studs, there’s also some inevitable change on the horizon. Cornerstone pieces like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are all free agents next winter. Kyle Schwarber would’ve joined that group but has already been non-tendered. Contreras is only controlled through 2022.

Improbable as it would have seemed a few years back, Darvish now stands out as one of president Jed Hoyer’s most desirable trade targets to dangle for other teams, joining Contreras and Kyle Hendricks in that regard. Trading Darvish (and Contreras or Caratini) would give the Cubs an avenue to clear salary and acquire controllable talent for the team’s next core.

However this plays out, it seems likely that more moves will be on the horizon for the Padres and Cubs alike. The Cubs could either jump into free agency to add a Darvish replacement at a lower cost, or they could continue to shop veteran stars like Bryant and Hendricks. And for the Padres, Preller’s history suggests that more moves are likely to follow even if Darvish, Kim and one of Contreras/Caratini all land in San Diego. The Padres could still use some help in the bullpen, for instance, and they’ll likely send some MLB talent to Chicago in order to push the Darvish deal across the line. It’s going to be a busy week in San Diego.

Padres, Cubs Have Discussed Yu Darvish Trade

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The Padres and Cubs have had discussions about a trade involving right-hander Yu Darvish, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Whether these negotiations are serious or perhaps simple due diligence on the Padres’ part is unclear, as Acee writes that “signals from team sources have been mixed on how far along those talks are.”

San Diego is the first team linked to Darvish on the rumor mill, though it was known that the righty was drawing trade interest following a season that saw him finish second in NL Cy Young Award voting.  Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA, 6.64 K/BB rate, and 11.01 K/9 over 76 innings for Chicago, with a lot of strong advanced metric data backing up those excellent on-field results.

Adding Darvish would be a major way for the Padres to reinforce a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery.  Dinelson Lamet is also something of a question mark, as he has been undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy in response to issues with biceps tightness that cut short his season and kept him out of San Diego’s playoff run.  While there is a lot of promise within the Padres’ crop of young arms, Darvish would bring both talent and a big infusion of veteran experience to the mix.  Padres GM A.J. Preller is very familiar with Darvish, as Preller was working in the Rangers’ front office when Texas first brought the right-hander over to North American baseball prior to the 2012 season.

As much as the Cubs are seemingly looking to cut payroll, however, they will still command a big return in any trade for Darvish.  The Padres have the minor league depth to swing such a deal, but Preller and company might also balk at the three years and $62MM remaining on Darvish’s contract since the club reportedly isn’t planning to spend beyond last year’s $150MM payroll, and might even look to get under that figure.  The Padres have been linked to such names as Lance Lynn (before Lynn was dealt to the White Sox), Tomoyuki Sugano, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray in free agent and trade buzz this winter, all of whom come with much lower price tags than Darvish’s $62MM.

Preller might figure that if the Padres are going to trade prospects for a front-of-the-rotation arm, they might as well do so for a younger and less-expensive hurler than Darvish, who turns 35 in August.  It is also possible that San Diego could try to move a big contract of their own to the Cubs to help offset salary.  Hypothetically, Wil Myers (owed $41MM through the 2022 season) could fill the left field vacancy left open when Chicago non-tendered Kyle Schwarber.

The other x-factor in negotiations is Darvish’s partial no-trade protection, which allows him to block a deal to 12 teams.  It isn’t known which dozen clubs are on his current no-trade list, but if San Diego is included, Darvish could ask for some type of financial bonus as compensation for waiving his trade veto.

Yu Darvish Generating Trade Interest

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While Kris Bryant has been the focal point of most Cubs trade speculation this winter, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that right-hander Yu Darvish’s name “seems out there in trade talks,” though he cautions that it could be little more than a matter of due diligence as the Cubs keep an open mind. Heyman adds that he spoke to a pair of executives with two other clubs, neither of whom expects a trade to ultimately come together.

All of that said, it’s worth breaking down the Darvish scenario a bit more extensively. First and foremost, it’s not surprising to see Darvish or any other high-priced Cubs player pop up on the rumor circuit. Changes to the team’s core looked inevitable heading into the current offseason, given the dwindling control remaining for so many key players. The Cubs already non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reported in mid-November that the Cubs were at least open to talks on “almost” any veteran player on their club. Even prior to that, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes laid out the possibility of a Darvish trade in his Offseason Outlook for the Cubs.

Cubs owner Tom Ricketts has publicly lamented his lack of available resources, even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated revenue losses. While few fans sympathize much with Ricketts’ efforts to explain the plight of the misunderstood MLB owner, his repeated comments are still notable and have been reflected in the team’s actions — or lack thereof. The Cubs’ lone major signing dating back to the 2018-19 offseason has been an in-season deal for Craig Kimbrel, which only came to pass after Chicago unexpectedly was spared some of its commitment to Ben Zobrist after the infielder/outfielder left the club for personal reasons. Beyond that, the Cubs’ combined spending in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons totaled just $14.25MM.

Given that context and the fact that Darvish is owed $62MM over the final three seasons of his contract, it’s only natural that the team would at least entertain offers on the righty. However, while the Darvish deal looked like a regrettable, potential albatross contract after an injury-ruined 2018 season, that’s no longer the case — and the asking price in any trade talks would surely reflect the right-hander’s turnaround.

Since that dismal first year of the contract, Darvish has not only bounced back but pitched at the most effective levels of his MLB career. Over his past 32 starts, Darvish has tallied 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. He was dominant in 2020, posting a career-best 2.01 ERA with a 93-to-14 K/BB ratio in 76 innings en route to a second-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. Darvish also has a 12-team no-trade clause, which could throw a wrench into various potential destinations.

A trade of Darvish would serve as not only a means of shedding payroll at a time when ownership has clearly been looking to curb spending, but also as a means of adding controllable just as the team’s World Series core is on the cusp of disbanding due to free agency. It’s easy to imagine any package for Darvish beginning with an MLB-ready starter who is controlled for five-plus seasons, with multiple quality prospects and/or young big leaguers then being added to the equation. Removing the $23MM owed to Darvish in 2021 from the payroll could also free up some resources to address other needs via free agency or trade.

Viewed through that lens, a Darvish trade seems practical, if somewhat painful for a club that has been a regular presence at or near the top of the NL Central over the past half decade. On the other hand, that track record of winning and a still-talented core underline the argument against trading Darvish away.

The Cubs may have been bounced from the postseason in surprising fashion by an upstart Marlins club in 2020, but this team still finished 34-26 and won the National League Central. Schwarber’s non-tender aside, the majority of that division-winning core is intact, and rebounds for some combination of Cubs stars who struggled — Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo — should be expected.

Trading Darvish unequivocally weakens a roster that still looks capable of contending in a division that no team seems to want to seize. The Pirates are rebuilding. The Cardinals are paring back payroll and mulling whether they can retain icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. The Reds have cut costs considerably in the bullpen and are at least listening to offers on their top starters. The Brewers aren’t expected to spend aggressively.

Some degree of turnover and change on the Chicago roster still seems quite plausible, but it’s also possible that a continued lack of aggression in St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee could motivate the Cubs to keep the bulk of their core intact, recognizing that the NL Central appears to be largely up for grabs. The Cubs currently project to carry a payroll of about $157MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with only about $164MM of luxury-tax considerations on the books at the moment.

Latest On Twins’ Search For Starting Pitching

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Right-hander Charlie Morton came off the free-agent board Tuesday when he signed with Atlanta, but the Braves had competition in the form of the Twins. Minnesota “had a lot of interest” in Morton, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Geography may have worked against the Twins, though, as Morton has said in the past he prefers to pitch on the East Coast.

Even after missing out on Morton, the Twins still have a mostly set rotation with 2020 Cy Young contender Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak among those in the fold. However, with Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey currently on the open market, the team hopes to address its rotation from outside, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays.

“Any time you lose Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to free agency, you’re not going to be complacent,” general manager Thad Levine said. “You realize there are pretty significant holes to fill. But we certainly don’t go into this offseason as if we have to fill three holes.”

Hill, 40, was the only member of that trio to deliver quality results over a sizable sample of innings for the Twins last season, but according to Hayes, they haven’t closed the door on re-signing Odorizzi – who MLBTR predicts will earn a three-year, $39MM payday this offseason. Otherwise, though, it doesn’t appear they’ll shop at the top of the market for pitching help, as Hayes writes it’s “unlikely” the Twins will go after the No. 1 free agent available, Trevor Bauer, or pursue trades for the Rays’ Blake Snell or the Cubs’ Yu Darvish.

[RELATED: Twins Offseason Outlook]

This Date In Transactions History: Cubs Get Yu

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It was on this date two years ago that one of the most expensive signings in Cubs history became official. The club added former Rangers and Dodgers right-hander Yu Darvish on a six-year, $126MM guarantee. The deal gave Darvish the right to opt out after last season, which would’ve meant walking away from $81MM in favor of a free-agency mystery box, but he chose to stay in Chicago, citing a comfort with the city and the organization.

For the Cubs, the Darvish pickup came after they bowed out in the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers in the prior fall. Darvish was an instrumental part of the Dodgers’ victory, as he fired 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in their Game 3 win. The hope for the Cubs was that Darvish would upgrade a rotation that was good, not great, in 2017. As a bonus, they took Darvish away from a rival, with which he was terrific after it acquired him from Texas at that summer’s trade deadline.

Darvish joined the Cubs as a 32-year-old who was eminently successful after coming over from Japan. From 2012-17, a 131-start, 832 1/3-inning run, he posted a 3.42 ERA/3.30 with a jaw-dropping 11.04 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. There were injuries along the way, though. Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2016 campaign and missed that entire season. That was sandwiched between two years in which he combined to amass just 244 2/3 frames.

To his credit, Darvish rebounded to throw 186 2/3 effective innings in his season divided between the Rangers and Dodgers. As a result, there was quite a bit of buzz surrounding him as he headed into free agency. MLBTR ranked him as the No. 1 free agent available and predicted a six-year, $160MM payday. But that offseason moved at a more glacial pace than anticipated, and there was less money thrown around than expected. Even Darvish wasn’t immune to it. Several teams (the Rangers, Dodgers, Twins, Brewers and Yankees among them) showed interest in Darvish, but he ultimately chose to go to the Windy City.

Unfortunately for Chicago and Darvish, the first year of their union was an utter letdown. Darvish was on the injured list multiple times – including for triceps and elbow problems – totaled a mere 40 innings and didn’t pitch past May 20. To make matters worse, when Darvish was able to take the mound, he mustered a career-low 4.95 ERA/4.86 FIP with a personal-high 4.73 BB/9. While Darvish did fan a little over 11 hitters per nine, that couldn’t have been much of consolation to the Cubs, who signed him with the belief he’d deliver more than just strikeouts.

On the heels of a rough first season with the Cubs, there probably wasn’t much optimistic with regards to Darvish entering last year. And several weeks through 2019, it looked as if the downward spiral was continuing. Darvish owned a 5.01 ERA as late as July 3, but the light bulb went back on in a big way after that. He finished the season on a rampage from that point, collecting an incredible 124 strikeouts against seven walks in 88 1/3 combined innings in July, August and September. He ended the year with a respectable 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with 11.54 K/9 against 2.82 over a healthy amount of starts (31) and innings (178 2/3).

As great as Darvish was in the second half of 2019, his overall performance as a Cub still probably hasn’t been what the team had in mind. Indeed, when assessing president of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s highest-profile signings earlier this week, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes gave the Darvish deal a mediocre ’C’ grade. But if his recent dominance is any indication, the 33-year-old Darvish may be able to help the Cubs rebound from their postseason-less 2019 this year. If he keeps it going (not a sure thing at his age), that grade should go up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yu Darvish Reportedly Has “No Intention” Of Waiving No-Trade Protection

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While the Cubs are getting some phone calls on veteran righty Yu Darvish, the team ultimately can’t move him on its own accord. That’s because his contract includes full no-trade rights for the time being. (That’ll turn to a dozen-team no-trade list at some point in 2020.)

In theory, the Cubs can sort out a swap and then leave it to the prospective acquiring team to convince Darvish to waive his protection. But that may be an uphill battle — if it’s possible at all. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), Darvish “has no intention” of agreeing to a swap.

It seems that Darvish is quite fond of playing in Chicago, even if the team is at least listening to scenarios that might involve moving his contract. He certainly seems to have settled in at Wrigley after a calamitous, injury filled 2018 season. In the just-completed campaign, Darvish worked to a 3.98 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 178 2/3 innings. He continues to be prone to the long ball but also managed to carry a personal-high 13.4% swinging-strike rate.

Darvish already bypassed a chance to opt out of the remaining four seasons and $81MM left on his contract. That seemed like a rather obvious decision at the time, but it’s now fair to wonder just how well the 33-year-old might have done on a market that is doling out huge contracts to top starters. At minimum, the Cubs would presumably be able to offload a major chunk of what it owes Darvish — if, that is, he’s even amenable to considering the possibility of wearing a new uniform.

Teams Have Inquired About Yu Darvish

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After a bounce-back showing in the second half of the 2019 season, right-hander Yu Darvish could emerge as a winter trade chip for the Cubs. Chicago has “received inquiries” regarding Darvish, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. It doesn’t appear a trade is in the works right now, but as Sherman notes, that could change when the best remaining free-agent starters (Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, for example) come off the board.

A year ago at this time, the idea of a Darvish trade would’ve been unthinkable. At that point, the former Ranger and Dodger was coming off a brutal, injury-ravaged first season with the Cubs, who inked him to a six-year, $126MM guarantee entering 2018. Darvish totaled a mere eight starts and 40 innings that year, when he put up career worsts in ERA (4.95), FIP (4.86) and walks per nine (4.73).

Last season began in similarly rough fashion for Darvish, owner of an ERA upward of 5.00 as late as July 3, but the light bulb went back on thereafter. The 33-year-old ended the summer on a tear, as he posted 124 strikeouts against a paltry seven walks in 88 1/3 innings from July onward. All said, Darvish concluded the campaign with 178 2/3 frames of 3.98 ERA/4.16 FIP ball, 11.54 K/9, 2.82 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate (up from 37.6 the previous year). He also managed a career-best swinging-strike percentage (13.4) and tied a personal high in average fastball velocity (94.2 mph). If there’s one major red flag, it’s that Darvish gave up more home runs than ever (1.66 per nine with a 22.8 percent homer-to-fly ball rate), though that was a common theme throughout the league last season.

Despite his late-2019 rebound, Darvish elected against a return to free agency, instead deciding not to opt out of the remaining four years and $81MM on his contract. It was a predictable call, especially considering Darvish has made it clear he has enjoyed his time in Chicago. Still, in a league where Red Sox lefty David Price – despite coming off an injury-plagued season and having three years and $96MM left on his contract – has drawn trade interest, it’s not that surprising teams have eyed Darvish in the wake of his personal renaissance.

Whether the Cubs would deal an integral rotation member like Darvish is unknown, and the fact that his contract includes no-trade rights — complete protection for now, then a dozen teams in 2020 — could complicate matters. However, there has been word that the Cubs would like to cut payroll. As Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates, they’re currently set to enter 2020 with a $214MM luxury-tax payroll. In that scenario, the Cubs would be $6MM over the threshold, and that’s without having made any clear improvements yet this offseason.

Furthermore, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is no doubt frustrated after a season that saw the Cubs miss the playoffs. The possibility of a shakeup has led to trade speculation surrounding other Cubs notables such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. So, any number of drastic roster-altering scenarios might be on the table (perhaps including a Darvish deal), but Epstein did say this week that the Cubs currently have “the makings of a very good team,” one that has “a chance to win a division.” On paper, getting rid of Darvish could decrease their odds of doing that.

Yu Darvish Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In a decision that won’t surprise anyone, right-hander Yu Darvish will not opt out of the remaining four years and $81MM on his contract, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. The 33-year-old had the right to re-enter the open market but will now remain with the Cubs for the final four seasons of that deal.

The first year of Darvish’s six-year, $126MM contract was an abject bust, as the former Rangers ace only pitched 40 innings while battling a series of injuries. Unsightly as the deal looked entering the season, though, Darvish did restore some credibility with a solid 3.98 ERA, 11.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over the life of 31 starts (178 2/3 innings). Digging a bit deeper, Darvish’s final 20 starts were downright vintage form; he averaged 6 1/3 innings per outing while working to a 3.35 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and the best control of his big league career (1.3 BB/9).

Encouraging as that season was — his final four months, in particular — no one expected that Darvish would again test the open market. He’d surely have fallen shy of that $81MM guarantee, and as the pitcher himself explained in September, he and his family enjoy living in Chicago.

Darvish will return to a Cubs rotation that also includes Jon Lester (in the final season of his seven-year, $161MM deal), Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana. Righty Kendall Graveman could factor into the fifth spot in the rotation, as could Tyler Chatwood, but the Cubs will likely be in the market to reshape their pitching staff to some extent this winter.

Yu Darvish Suggests Opt-Out Unlikely

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Cubs righty Yu Darvish isn’t ready to make anything official, but has given clear indication in recent comments that he has no intentions of opting out of the remaining four years and $81MM left on his contract. That it’s even a question worth asking reflects his remarkable mid-season turnaround.

In recent interviews with Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune and the full slate of Cubs beat reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian), Darvish said he’s going to take some time to think things over and discuss it with his agent and family. There’s still a few weeks’ time to think things over. Darvish’s season is over — he won’t take his final start owing to nagging forearm discomfort — and he doesn’t need to make an official decision until after the end of the World Series.

But it doesn’t seem likely that things will change in the interim. Darvish said that he’s “so comfortable” in Chicago and that his family is as well. He credited the organization — particularly skipper Joe Maddon — for patience as he worked through marked early difficulties after signing a big contract.

Truth be told, it’d be tough for Darvish to beat the remaining guarantee he has in hand. He just turned 33, has a worrying injury history, and limped through his first year-and-a-half with the Cubs. But he has been exceptional down the stretch. Over his final 13 starts, Darvish carried a 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and just seven walks.

Darvish says he has never before commanded the baseball as well as he is now. With the results to prove it, the future again looks promising for a key Cubs performer. Darvish, at least, thinks that Chicago is the right place for him to continue his excellent career. “This organization is perfect for me,” he says.

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