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Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

Braves To Install Mark Melancon As Closer

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The Braves will install veteran righty Mark Melancon as their closer, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He finished out tonight’s game, though it did not come in a save situation.

Melancon was one of three veteran relievers acquired by the Atlanta organization at the trade deadline. At the time, it did not seem terribly likely he’d receive a shot at ninth-inning work. Shane Greene took the inside track to the gig, with fellow newcomer Chris Martin and incumbent Luke Jackson also potentially in the mix.

Things have changed rather quickly. Greene and Martin have been shaky. The Braves don’t want to turn things back over to Jackson. And Melancon has been steady. It’s only a handful of outings, but the Atlanta org is obviously looking for a steadying presence. Perhaps it shouldn’t be seen as a surprise that the experienced late-inning hand has already grasped the reins.

Melancon hasn’t functioned as a steady closer since early in the 2017 season, but he has racked up 183 career saves. Though he has been more steady than dominant of late, carrying a 3.29 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 since the start of the 2018 season, the 34-year-old surely won’t be cowed by the prospect of handling the high-leverage spots.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves’ late-inning relief situation shakes out down the stretch. Snitker did not commit to permanently utilizing Melancon in the closer’s role, though he did indicate that the veteran will be trusted with the job for some time to come. The club is obviously willing to switch things up on the fly, but will presumably hope to settle into some kind of established approach before the postseason arrives.

Nationals Designate Tony Sipp

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The Nationals announced today that they have designated lefty Tony Sipp for assignment. His roster spot was needed to complete the team’s addition of three new relievers at the trade deadline, each of whom has been activated for tonight’s game.

Sipp was surprisingly unable to find work this spring after turning in excellent results with solid peripherals in 2018. He ultimately landed with the Nats on a modest deal in mid-March. Sipp is owed $1MM this year with a $250K buyout on a 2020 mutual option.

You can mostly ignore his 4.71 ERA, since Sipp has been used in such short bursts (21 innings in 36 appearances). Regardless, things haven’t really gone as hoped for the 36-year-old, who has maintained a solid 12.7% swinging-strike rate but lost almost 1.5 mph on his average fastball from last season.

Sipp has allowed hard contact on 34.4% of the balls put in play against him, way up from last year’s excellent 22.3% mark. And Statcast thinks he has been fortunate to hold opposing hitters to a .284 wOBA, translating the contact measurements into a .340 xwOBA.

We’ll have to wait to see how this situation turns out. Sipp can’t be traded. But he could conceivably be claimed by a rival that’s in need of lefty relief depth. If he clears waivers and is outrighted, Sipp could elect free agency without risking his guaranteed salary, since he has well over five years of MLB service.

Marlins’ Bullpen Reportedly Earning Attention Of Scouts

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According to a report from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, several scouts were in attendance for Saturday night’s game between the Marlins and Mets, presumably with an interest in observing several Miami relievers.

Though Frisaro did underscore that the participation of New York starter Noah Syndergaard in tonight’s affair likely had much to do with the heavy scouting presence at Marlins Park, he also proposed that a few interesting Miami arms could be of particular interest to competitive clubs.

Entering tonight’s game, the Marlins’ bullpen had posted a collective 2.25 ERA since June 1st, which was tied with the Braves and A’s for the third-best mark in the Majors in that span. It’s difficult to say which of Miami’s bullpen pieces would be most attractive to an acquiring club, but Frisaro points to Austin Brice, Jarlin Garcia and Nick Anderson as possible trade chips.

It is conceivable that an in-the-race team could buy into the 1.88 ERA of the 27-year-old Brice,  but only if they were to overlook his slightly less pristine underlying marks, which include a 4.39 xFIP. Jarlin Garcia could make for a solid LOOGY candidate for most teams, but his 6.30 career K/9 indicates that he isn’t the type of arm that typically elicits a ton of trade value.

Anderson could make for the club’s most appealing late-inning trade bait. The 6’5 righty is generating a prodigious number of strikeouts in his first big league campaign (13.85 K/9), turning to a 95-mph fastball in addition to a heavily used curveball. After giving up a decisive two-run dinger to Robinson Cano tonight, Anderson’s ERA sits at 4.46, but FIP (2.99) thinks much more highly of his 2019 work. The 29-year-old, whom Miami acquired from Minnesota this past November, is controllable for five years beyond the 2019 season.

Erick Fedde Auditioning For Expanded Role In Nationals Bullpen

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Results have been good thus far for Erick Fedde, who in limited action has made a good impression on a struggling Nationals bullpen, per Byron Kerr of MASN Sports. Fedde, a starter in the minors, was brought up for the first time this season on April 28th – and he immediately made an impact. He threw four scoreless innings in relief of Jeremy Hellickson against the Padres that day, keeping a 6-0 deficit at bay and giving the Nationals young bats a chance to heat up. Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Carter Kieboom became the first trio of teammates younger than 22-years-old to homer in the same game as the Nationals came back to beat the Friars 7-6 in 10 innings. In an unceremonious thank-you, however, Fedde was sent back to Double-A the very next day. 

In Harrisburg, Fedde has roasted the competition so far this season, 2.55 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.63 xFIP with 9.85 K/9 to 1.82 BB/9, which includes two-thirds of a combined no-hitter in early April. Fedde, 26, is miscast in Double-A after a full season between Triple-A Syracuse and the majors in 2018, but with their Triple-A affiliate now cross-country in Fresno, the Nationals have kept a few ML-hopefuls close at hand in Harrisburg. Current teammates in D.C. Dan Jennings, Michael A. Taylor, and Adrian Sanchez have all spent time in Harrisburg this year before recalls with quick turnarounds. Fedde is back in the Nats’ bullpen now and potentially in line to take on a larger role, whether as a long man, in a setup capacity, or both.

There is little doubt as to the need for the Nationals, whose bullpen has imploded time and again in 2019 as Dave Martinez searches for a reliable option in the middle-to-late innings. The three-headed monster in the rotation (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin) somewhat mitigates usage of the pen (111 innings is the lowest mark in the National League), and Sean Doolittle is as good as it gets at the back-end, but there’s still that pesky eighth inning to worry about, and forty percent of the rotation is not among the NL’s top ten in strikeouts, K/9, innings, and WAR as are Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. (Admittedly, Corbin ranks tied for 14th in the NL with 1.0 fWAR, though his 2.0 rWAR jumps him to second by that measure, while rWAR drops Scherzer out of the top ten into a seven-way tie for 12th. Among those seven is Doolittle, tied with John Gant for the NL rWAR lead among relievers.) Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson have lasted six full innings only once apiece en route to respective ERAs of 5.27 and 5.52, and between the implosion of Trevor Rosenthal, some bad bounces, and a difficulty in stranding inherited runners, the bullpen ahead of Doolittle has been a mess. 

Washington’s pen boasts some ugly numbers with a 6.24 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .342 BABIP, and 65.1 LOB% – all of which rank dead last in the Majors. Still, it’s hard to know exactly what the Nationals have in their pen, as BABIP and LOB% have a tendency to fluctuate, and many of their pen hands have much stronger FIPs than ERAs (Wander Suero, Matt Grace, Joe Ross), and while that could point to some bad luck, they have an equal number of arms on the flip side of the ledger as Doolittle, Justin Miller and Kyle Barraclough’s ERAs are all outperforming xFIP. Outside of Doolittle, the pen is functioning largely without defined roles so far this season, which is where Fedde’s newfound versatility could prove invaluable. Fedde is adjusting to life in a potential fireman role, but if he can muster a quality outing or two in high-leverage situations – arguably the Nats’ greatest area of need – he will make it very difficult for the Washington brass to shuttle him back to Harrisburg.

Diamondbacks Sign Ricky Nolasco, Marc Rzepczynski

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The Diamondbacks have announced deals with two veteran hurlers. Both right-hander Ricky Nolasco and southpaw Marc Rzepczynski are slated to appear in MLB camp as non-roster invitees after signing minor-league pacts.

If he’s able to crack the roster, Rzepczysnki would earn at a $1.5MM rate, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). His deal also includes a $500K incentives package.

Another pair of former MLB relievers is also joining the Arizona organization, albeit without camp invites. Righty Michael Kohn and lefty Lucas Luetge also have minors deals in place. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first tweeted Kohn’s deal.

Nolasco will be looking to break back into the majors after sitting out the 2018 season. He did make 33 starts in the 2017 campaign, and spent camp last year with the Royals, so he hasn’t been on the sidelines for all that long.

Even ignoring the absence, it has been some times since the 36-year-old was effective. Nolasco’s strong 2013 season earned him a four-year deal with the Twins, but he carries a 4.99 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in the 575 innings he has thrown since that time.

The 33-year-old Rzepczynski did see MLB action last year, though he was knocked around in both the majors and minors in stints with the Mariners and Indians organizations. At his best, Rzepczynski is an exceedingly tough assignment for opposing left-handed hitters, who have hit just .227/.296/.305 against him in his career.

Kohn and Luetge are each even deeper comeback candidates. Neither has seen the majors since 2015 and neither played in the affiliated ranks at all in 2018.

Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford

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With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.

Here’s the latest on the relief market:

  • The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel’s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
  • With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
  • Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.

Fallout From David Robertson Signing

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David Robertson chose an unconventional path this offseason as a self-represented free agent, and as a right-hander who holds lefties to a .186/.268/.278 mark, he’s unconventional on the bump as well. It’s not surprising to hear, then, that Gabe Kapler’s plan to deploy him whenever the biggest outs are needed suits him just fine. Unconventional he may be, but he is also a modern reliever in every sense, from his ability to neutralize hitters from both sides of the plate, to his durability in multi-inning outings (23 such appearances since 2017), to his ability to miss bats (11.97 K/9 for his career). Despite the robust resume, Robertson isn’t worried about being used in a traditional closer’s role, so long as he gets important outs on the back-end, writes Scott Lauber of Philadelphia Inquirer. For the Phillies, that makes him a perfect fit in a bullpen that has a few guys capable of locking down the ninth. Per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris figure to share in those closing responsibilities with Robertson, giving second-year skipper Gabe Kapler the freedom to let situations dictate his bullpen management more so than strict role assignments. Dominguez, 24, slowed in the second half of his rookie campaign but showed tremendous promise overall recording 16 saves and a 2.93 ERA, while Neris, 29, saved 11 games last year while striking out a ridiculous 14.3 batters per nine innings. Neris has earned 39 saves over the last three seasons in Philadelphia. Robertson’s signing reverberates beyond just the ninth inning…

  • Kapler’s ongoing modernization of the Philly bullpen makes Craig Kimbrel a somewhat odd fit, considering he is one of the few tried-and-true closers left in the MLB. Where Kimbrel does fit (besides previous Boston or Atlanta), however, is entirely (and unjustifiably) unclear, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Kimbrel’s case is yet another example of the widening gap between players and teams as front offices become increasingly wary of age decline while focusing their efforts (and their payrolls) on value spending. He may not be worth the 6-year, $100MM commitment reported to be the starting ask, but there ought to be more interest for a 30-year-old closer with a proven track record (1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.16 xFIP) that is supported by underlying success (14.67 K/9 to 3.46 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9).
  • With Robertson in hand and seven out-of-options relievers on their 40-man roster, thinning a now-overcrowded bullpen is next on Philadelphia’s offseason docket, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Veterans Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter could be the odd men out if the Phils can find a trade partner. Along with the power trio of Robertson, Dominguez, and Neris, recent offseason acquisitions Juan Nicasio (from the Mariners) and Jose Alvarez (from the Angels) would seem to be locks for the pen on Opening Day. Hunter, specifically, was acquired because of his reverse-split ability to retire left-handers, which could now make him vulnerable given Robertson’s skills in the same area. Alvarez, projected to make only $1.7MM this year, would be the easiest to flip, but they probably prefer to move one of their higher-priced expirings like Hunter ($9MM), Nicasio ($9.25MM) or Neshek, who is guaranteed $8.5MM including a buyout for 2020.
  • Unless the price for Dallas Keuchel drops significantly, the Phillies seem done shopping for arms, at least until midseason, per Gelb. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta head the Philly rotation, but GM Matt Klentak believes in the high floor provided by the depth behind those two, both at the major league level and in Triple A. Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin round out the rotation, but the renewed health of Jerad Eickhoff provides further flexibility should one of the above trio stumble. Regardless, the Phillies like their current group, and any upgrade would need to be significant. Patrick Corbin provided that kind of upside, but with the former Dback now in Washington, there doesn’t appear to be another available starter the Phils deem worthy of a significant acquisition cost. The next few weeks of free agent hunting figure to focus on the big fish, after which offensive plan B’s or even a reengagement on Kimbrel would likely take precedence over adding another starter.

Injury Notes: Snell, Dickerson, Fowler, Williams, Skaggs

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As expected, the Rays have activated left-hander Blake Snell to start tonight’s game against the White Sox. The first-time All-Star will be on a limited pitch count following a two-week DL stint for left shoulder fatigue. Following a trade of Chris Archer to the Pirates, Snell looks like the only reliable starter in a Rays rotation that continues to see relievers open games more often than the starters themselves. Snell’s pre-injury performance, of course, was phenomenal; his 2.27 ERA would be more than a run lower than his career best season.

Here are a few other disabled list transactions from around the league…

  • Pirates outfielder Corey Dickerson has been activated after a short stint on the disabled list; he’d been sidelined with a left hamstring strain. They’ll surely be glad to have him back after the club traded away notable outfield depth in the form of Austin Meadows at the July 31st deadline. While he’s active, Dickerson won’t be starting today’s game against the Cardinals (though he’ll presumably be available off the bench).
  • As expected after last night’s news, Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler will hit the DL after suffering a fractured foot. Fowler’s enduring a miserable season that’s by far his career worst; he’s managed to hit an absolutely wretched .180/.278/.298 across 334 plate appearances while playing middling outfield defense. Fangraphs rates him as being 1.2 wins below replacement level on the season after a 2.5 fWAR debut with the Cards last year.
  • Switch-hitting relief pitcher Taylor Williams is headed to the DL with right elbow soreness. It’s certainly bad news for a Brewers bullpen that’s seeing Corey Knebel struggle mightily of late. Williams has tossed 42 2/3 relief innings and managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings, though he’s only managed to keep the ball on the ground 34.8% of the time and has walked a batter nearly every other inning on average. Williams is in the midst of his first full season in the majors after a 4 2/3 inning cup of coffee last year.
  • Angels hurler Tyler Skaggs is headed to the disabled list with a left adductor strain, the club has announced. Skaggs has described the injury as “extremely frustrating”, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. He apparently sustained it during his last start. In his stead, the Angels have called up right-hander Taylor Cole. The Angels, of course, have already seen their rotation annihilated by injuries this year, with Garrett Richards, Shohei Ohtani, J.C. Ramirez and Matt Shoemaker among the affected starters.

Trade Rumblings: Hand, Dodgers, Dozier, Heaney, Skaggs

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Though the Phillies lost out to the Dodgers in the Manny Machado sweepstakes, they’re far from done looking for upgrades to their ballclub. Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets that the club is interested in Padres reliever Brad Hand. As Lin notes, there are certainly many other clubs in competition for the lefty’s services; he’s easily one of the most talented bullpen arms in the game. As one might expect, however, San Diego’s asking price for Hand remains very high, as he can be controlled through the 2021 season at a very reasonable cost. The Yankees, Indians and Cubs are among the other teams who’ve been connected to Hand, who owns a 3.03 ERA and 13.20 K/9 on the season.

More rumors and rumblings from around the league…

  • The Dodgers aren’t done yet, either, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports, as they’ll now pursue a reliever to help closer Kenley Jansen at the back end of their bullpen. It’s worth noting that Los Angeles will sit just a few million dollars below the luxury tax threshold following the acquisition of Machado, so any bullpen additions will likely come cheap, or send a player (such as Logan Forsythe) back to a trade partner in order to offset some of financial burden involved. In addition to Hand, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen and Raisel Iglesias are just a few names who could be available.
  • Also in the aftermath of the Machado sweepstakes, the Brewers are left looking to acquire an infield upgrade. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they’re expected to explore trading for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. With Minnesota all but out of the the AL Central race already and Dozier set to become a free agent at season’s end, he makes plenty of sense as a potential trade target for the Brewers, despite a down season so far. The Brewers are also expected to explore pitching upgrades, Rosenthal adds.
  • Also from Rosenthal, the Angels aren’t likely to trade young starters Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs, despite previous reports that the club might consider doing so. The Angels see the two young southpaws as key components during a 2019 season in which they hope to contend. Rather, Rosenthal notes, the club is more interested in trading some of their relievers (he lists Jose Alvarez, Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian and Justin Anderson), though they’d want a good enough return to justify giving up controllable players.

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