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Phillies Expected To Be Aggressive As Trade Deadline Approaches

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Though the Phillies are sporting a -12 run differential on the year, they may represent the most viable threat to the Mets division lead in the National League East. The Nationals are 3-7 in their last ten, now seven games behind the Mets, and the cavalry may not be coming. The Braves know they’ll be without their biggest star, and despite having the best run differential in the division right now at +26, it’s hard to consider Atlanta as a viable threat without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Marlins are 41-57, 12 games out, and they’re in full-on sell mode.

That leaves the Phillies. Though they’re exactly .500 at 48-48, that leaves them right where they’ve been for most of the Bryce Harper era. This team didn’t re-sign J.T. Realmuto and hire Dave Dombrowski to run the front office just to stand pat, however. Not only are rival executives expecting the Phillies to be aggressive this trade deadline, but they think the Phillies will be willing to exceed the luxury tax, if that’s what it takes to find the right upgrades, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

As for what the Phillies might be pursuing, there are plenty of avenues to improve the roster. Heyman suggests they could use a starter, multiple relievers and a centerfielder. Alec Bohm has not been good at third base (-0.1 fWAR), but they’re not close to moving on from the 25-year-old former top prospect.

The bullpen’s shortcomings have been thoroughly noted, and it now seems a near certainty that they’ll add at least one bullpen arm. The question is whether they’ll shell out for a premium arm like the Cubs’ Craig Kimbrel, or if they’ll target cheaper options like the Pirates’ Richard Rodriguez or Ian Kennedy of the Rangers.

They could aim even lower and shop in the non-premium section of opposing bullpens where there are plenty of viable options for the right price: the Cubs’ Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin, the Twins’ Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Duffey, or Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, and Yimi Garcia of the Marlins are a few names worth checking in on.That said, if there’s any team that might look for a fire-tested closer to take the reins, Philly would be it.

In center, Starling Marte would be the obvious target, though it’s unclear how willing the Marlins are to move him within the division — nor is it clear if the Phillies have what Miami GM Kim Ng desires in a return package. For starters, the Marlins are seeking a long-term replacement for Marte in center, per Craig Mish of the Swings and Mishes podcast. That’s going to slow trade discussions, as most teams will balk at moving a younger, cheaper option in center, especially if the Marlins are prioritizing near ML-ready prospects.

The Phillies do have some centerfield prospects they could dangle, such as Simon Muzziotti, their 10th-ranked prospect by Fangraphs, Mickey Moniak, their 8th-ranked prospect, or Johan Rojas, their 4th-ranked prospect. Of the three, Muzziotti probably comes closest to starting the conversation for Marte.

None of the three are blue-chippers, however, and only Moniak has advanced beyond High-A. Moniak, of course, was the former No. 1 overall draft pick,but he’s fallen down prospect charts since his selection in the 2016 draft. Baseball America calls him “a fourth or fifth outfielder,” and he wouldn’t likely be viewed as a centerpiece in a Marte deal.

Without a ton of options on the market, Philly might need to stick with their in-house options.Odubel Herrera has made a valiant return to action after missing all of 2020, but he’s rocking just an 86 wRC+. Travis Jankowski’s been a revelation through 68 plate appearances, though the 30-year-old was a 76 wRC+ hitter through 994 plate appearances prior to this season. The fact remains that outside of Marte, there aren’t a ton of available centerfielders on the market.

The Phillies might have an easier time upgrading their pitching staff, especially given the low bar. Beyond the bullpen, Philadelphia needs more for the rotation, though Dombrowski hasn’t exactly succeeded in that regard thus far, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Offseason additions Matt Moore and Chase Anderson have posted -0.1 fWAR apiece while earning a combined $7MM.

Philly starters have a 4.21 ERA, which ranks 21st in the Majors overall, though they’re 12th by the measure of a 3.97 combined FIP. They rank 10th overall in innings pitched. Still, they could conceivably find upgrades for 60 percent of the rotation, given the uncertain track records of Vince Velasquez and rookie Spencer Howard. It’s unlikely they’ll find three starters, but it’s also hard to reason Dombrowski coming away from the trade deadline without any new arms in the rotation.

Cole Hamels has been a popular name of late, and it would certainly be fun to see the 37-year-old back in a Phillies uniform. He also comes with the added benefit of not costing prospects. Hamels alone won’t be enough, but there’s not much risk in seeing if he can upgrade Moore’s spot in the rotation.

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Plans

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The Mariners have been one of the most surprising contenders of the 2021 season to date. Manager Scott Servais entered the season with a six-man rotation and a host of exciting young outfielders getting ready to traverse the grass at T-Mobile Park, but expectations were low for a franchise with zero World Series appearances and no playoff appearances since 2001.

Both droughts are likely to continue into 2022, but there’s at least a chance that the Mariners could continue their upward trajectory and push for a playoff spot this season. With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Mariners are 49-43, on pace for 86 wins and just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. In fact, they have the best record in the American League for a team not currently in a playoff spot, putting them in prime position to be surprise buyers at the deadline.

GM Jerry Dipoto has his ear to the ground, as ever, though it sounds like he’s still vacillating between the buyers and sellers line. Per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, Dipoto offered this recent assessment: “Our bullpen has been awesome, and it was roughly a number of guys who no one has ever heard of that just needed another chance. That’s put us in a really good position right now to be able to make a more aggressive play in the next two, three weeks if the opportunity presents itself. But we’re not going to push the opportunity because we believe this is a window that is open and we want to make sure it stays open. We don’t want to shortchange our long term.”

Their greatest need, should they want to wrench that window open right now, would be to add another starter to an injury-depleted rotation. Logan Gilbert has emerged as an exciting young arm, and Marco Gonzales is healthy again alongside Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen, but they also have nearly a full rotation on the injured list.

As Dipoto noted above, the bullpen has helped shoulder the load thanks to surprisingly competent seasons from Kendall Graveman, JT Chargois, Paul Sewald, and Drew Steckenrider, a foursome that’s accrued 3.3 fWAR of their league-leading 4.5 bullpen fWAR. The Mariners have made a practice of trading away relievers over the years, but this time around they might choose to hold onto a few of them, especially if they can’t find the rotation help they need.

That said, it’s just as likely that Trader Jerry stays true to his history and deals an arm or two to a contender. Brock suggests that Graveman is the most likely Mariner to find himself in a new uniform by August, which certainly makes some sense given his breakout season. Graveman is a free agent at the end of the year, and right now he’s presenting as a difference-maker, a transition from starter to high-leverage arm that began last season. He has locked down eight saves as the Mariners’ closer, pitching to a sterling 0.93 ERA/3.03 FIP across 29 innings.

Even if the Mariners do decide to sell a piece or two, don’t expect Mitch Haniger to be an easy get. Brock notes that Haniger “isn’t likely to be moved unless the Mariners are floored by a deal.”

On the one hand, that might be surprising given the plethora of promising young outfielders in the organization, well-known prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. For now, however, Lewis is hurt, Rodriguez has just 14 games of experience in Double-A, and Kelenic and Trammell have stumbled at the big league level with marks of 12 wRC+ and 74 wRC+, respectively.

In the plus column, Fraley has absolutely raked to a 143 wRC+ by way of a .237/.409/.439 triple slash — buoyed by an above-average .202 ISO and eye-opening 22.1 percent walk rate that would be first overall in the game among qualified hitters if he had more plate appearances. Fraley doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of those other names, however, and it’ll take more than 149 plate appearances to anoint him as an above-average regular.

Which is the point, really, both behind Haniger’s value on the trade market and the Mariners’ desire to keep him. Injuries have slowed his ascension to stardom, but since his arrival in Seattle, he’s been a 127 wRC+ hitter with 78 home runs and a .269/.343/.489 triple slash line across 1,751 plate appearances. He’s 30 years old, and with one more season of team control remaining, it’s easy to understand why contenders might ask about his availability.

Despite Haniger’s importance to this lineup, however, and despite the Mariners having a chance to make a run at the playoffs, Trader Jerry likes to deal. Speculatively speaking, Dipoto likely would prefer to get the godfather offer for Haniger that forces his hand, and maybe that makes him more inclined to see that offer where it doesn’t exist. But by all accounts, Dipoto is content to hold him through the deadline.

He could, after all, explore a trade in the offseason. Besides, with Lewis hurt and Rodriguez not yet ready, there’s no real rush to vacate Haniger’s plate appearances. There’s enough run to go around if Servais wants to see Haniger, Fraley, Trammell, and Kelenic all in the lineup at the same time, though that hasn’t been the case thus far.

Still, expect Dipoto to do something. At the very least, he sounds likely to acquire some kind of starting pitcher, with the real question being the quality of arm he’s able/willing to procure.

Royals Place Wade Davis On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Richard Lovelady

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The Royals placed Wade Davis on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a right forearm strain. Southpaw Richard Lovelady was recalled from Triple-A Omaha to take his spot in the Royals’ bullpen, per the team transactions log on MLB.com.

The Royals are scuffling. They earned pats on the back from many around the game for their aggressive offseason, and when they jumped out to a 15-9 start in April, the idea of Mike Matheny’s club making a run seemed like it might have legs. But they tumbled to an 11-17 record in May, and fell even further in June, entering play on Wednesday with a 7-19 record for the month. Now losers of seven straight, the Royals have fallen behind the Twins for last place in the AL Central.

Pitching has been a particular challenge for the Royals this month. With a team ERA of 5.97, they have produced -0.7 fWAR this month, tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst mark in the Majors. Davis has, unfortunately, been no small part of their struggles, as the Royals’ legend has given up 11 earned runs on 14 hits and and five walks while serving up five home runs in 9 1/3 innings this month. For the year now, Davis has a 8.06 ERA/6.50 FIP.

His control issues of the past couple seasons have settled down to a not-horrible 9.2 percent walk rate, but the trouble stems largely from the fact that, at 35 years old, Davis simply isn’t missing bats anymore. His four-seamer velocity is down to an average of 92.6 mph, which lands in just the 16th percentile league-wide. His O-Swing%, the percent of pitches batters swing at outside the zone, is down to 23.9 percent, quite a bit below the 30.6 percent average for relievers. Overall, his 18.5 percent strikeout rate is a good tick below average as well.

Lovelady, 25, will make his first appearance of the season and try to provide some support to the Royals’ pen. Lovelady relies mostly on a fastball/slider combo, though he’s worked to add a change-up to his arsenal as well. He has 26 career appearances, all but one coming back in 2019 when he logged 20 innings with a 7.65 ERA/4.16 FIP while posting walk and strikeout rates of 8.3 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively.

Latest On Mariners COVID Situation

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MAY 22: Dugger and Misiewicz were each reinstated from the IL before this evening’s game against the Padres, per a team announcement. Fletcher and Mills were optioned back to Tacoma.

MAY 21, 6:17pm: The Mariners announced a series of roster moves related to the positive test. Right-handers Robert Dugger, Drew Steckenrider and Will Vest were all placed on the IL, as was lefty Anthony Misiewicz. The Mariners did not indicate that a player tested positive but rather that the moves were made “out of an abundance of caution” due to a “potential” positive. Further testing and contact tracing is being conducted.

In a slate of corresponding moves, the Mariners reinstated right-hander Keynan Middleton from the injured list, selected the contract of journeyman infielder Eric Campbell and recalled three relievers from Triple-A Tacoma: lefty Aaron Fletcher and righties Wyatt Mills and Yohan Ramirez.

MAY 21, 2:08pm: The Mariners are dealing with a COVID-19 situation, as reported by both The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan.  At least one player has tested positive for the virus, Passan reports, “and there is concern within the organization that the relatively low level of vaccination within the clubhouse could be problematic.”  Not only are the Mariners under the league-mandated 85% vaccination threshold for the lessening of COVID protocols, but the M’s “are among the least-vaccinated teams in” the entire league.

The Mariners are in San Diego tonight to begin a three-game series with the Padres.  Any of those games or perhaps even the three-game set with the Athletics from May 24-26 could perhaps face postponement in the event of a widespread outbreak amongst the team, though there isn’t yet any word that the M’s have anything beyond just the one positive test.

Padres Activate Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla From Injured List

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The Padres carousel of relievers continues to turn, this time via the activations of Pierce Johnson and Dan Altavilla from the injured list. Both right-handers came into the season as key, if underrated pieces of the Friars’ bullpen makeup. Both will make their season debuts when they next get in a game.

In terms of corresponding moves, Nabil Crismatt has been optioned for the second time this season. Taylor Williams has also been placed on the injured list with right knee inflammation, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). Crismatt impressed this spring while on a minor league contract, earning himself a place in the organization. The Padres are likely to see Crismatt a number of times this season, though since his option has been used, he’ll also remain a candidate for demotion.

Conversely, Williams does not have any options remaining. The 29-year-old has been solid in five appearances so far this season, giving up just one run over 5 1/3 innings. Williams played for the Brewers and Mariners before coming to the Padres in an under-the-radar trade at last season’s August trade deadline.

Altavilla also came to San Diego from Seattle at the trade deadline last year, but as part of the higher-profile trade the sent Ty France, Andres Munoz, Luis Torrens, and Taylor Trammell to the Mariners for Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Austin Nola. All three pieces of that deal started the season on the injured list for the Pads, though Adams just recently made his return.

Johnson returned to the States from Japan last season, quickly becoming a vital piece of manager Jayce Tingler’s relief corps. The Colorado native appeared in 24 games, pitching to a 2.70 ERA/3.14 FIP over 20 innings. Johnson and Altavilla now join a deep group of veteran right-handers in the Padres’ bullpen. Beyond Johnson, Altavilla, and Adams, Tingler can also call on Craig Stammen, Keone Kela or Emilio Pagan ahead of nominal closer Mark Melancon.

 

Quick Hits: Padres, Reds, Yankees

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Dinelson Lamet will not be ready to join the opening day rotation, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). On the plus side, he will get his first Cactus League start on Wednesday. That should get him on track to join the rotation at some point in April. The Padres have plenty of depth to work around Lamet’s absence, especially because of the delayed Triple-A season. In fact, slow-playing Lamet’s return not only benefits the right-hander, but it opens an opportunity for Adrian Morejon to get a start or two before the Triple-A season begins. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Reds owner Bob Castellini spoke recently with Paul Daugherty on the Reds Beat Podcast about a number of topics, including the Reds chances to win the National League Central. Castellini sees a division that the Reds can win. Castellini also said that he never expected that the Reds could be players for Trevor Bauer in free agency. He also gave the team’s reasoning for moving some key bullpen pieces this winter, “We have no idea what the financial aspects of this season is going to be — before, during or after. We have at least two very fine relievers that are possible closers: Sims and Garrett. Maybe even more. For instance, if Michael Lorenzen doesn’t start, he’s another very top reliever. We have five left-handed relievers. We are not trying to understand what’s going to happen financially this year, but we wanted to … keep a little in reserve in case we needed it when we needed it. We feel like our bullpen’s going to be all right. Better than all right.”
  • The assumption for the past few weeks has been that the Yankees are trying to decide between Jay Bruce and Mike Tauchman for their final bench spot. The latest from Andy Martino of sny.tv suggests that both might be in a position to make the opening day roster. Rather than DFA Tauchman and risk losing him to waivers, the Yankees are considering optioning infielder Tyler Wade instead. The Yankees have started trying out Gio Urshela at shortstop should they need him to serve as their reserve infielder in an emergency basis. Who, exactly, would step in for Urshela at third in that circumstance isn’t entirely clear. In the unlikely event that Bruce and Tauchman both made the team, Kyle Higashioka and Brett Gardner would make up the rest of the bench. Presumably, Wade will need to be on this roster sooner rather than later, even if the Yankees use his option to give some extra time to the Bruce vs. Tauchman debate.

Red Sox Roster Moves

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The Red Sox were one of a number of teams to make their first round of roster cuts today. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom announced the assignment of 12 players to minor league camp.

There are unlikely to be many surprises from this early round of cuts. For Boston, catchers Roldani Baldwin and Austin Rei, and pitchers Seth Blair, Matt Carasiti, Raynel Espinal, Durbin Feltman, Franklin German, Zac Grotz, Kaleb Ort, Andrew Politi, Thaddeus Ward, and Josh Winckowski were re-assigned to minor league camp. No one from this group was on their 40-man roster.

You might recognize Winckowski, who’s been quite the traveler this winter. He went from the Blue Jays to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz trade. Two weeks later, he found himself in Boston as part of the return for Andrew Benintendi (by way of the Royals and Khalil Lee). The 22-year-old has yet to play a pro game above High-A. Though he may eventually work his way into a swingman role, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen suggests he’s bound for a relief role unless he can develop a more consistent third offering.

German may also ring a few bells, as he came to the Red Sox from the Yankees as the contract tax for Adam Ottavino. Fangraphs has German as the 25th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system. Like Winckowski, however, German has yet to appear above High-A. Fangraphs also lists relievers Feltman and Politi among Boston’s top 47 prospects.

Central Notes: Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Pirates

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The Cubs will welcome fans back to Wrigley Field in 2021, the team announced today. They have been approved by the city to fill the stadium to 20 percent capacity, beginning on opening day. “In coordination with MLB, top health experts and local officials, we developed a comprehensive plan that prioritizes the health and safety of our players, staff and fans,” said Cubs President of Business Operations Crane Kenney. “Our goal is to create a safe, clean and friendly environment for everyone to enjoy Cubs baseball beginning Opening Day.” The Cubs will require masks for patrons two-years-old and above while hosting pod-style seating and practicing social distancing.

On the other side of town, the White Sox will be allowed up to 8,122 patrons per game while practicing social distancing, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The Southsiders home opener will be on April 8th. That means every team except for the Blue Jays will have at least a limited number of fans in the seats this season, notes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Now, the latest in roster news from the Central…

  • The Brewers are facing a roster crunch at the end of the bench. It’s a side effect of the Jackie Bradley Jr. signing, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Pablo Reyes and Derek Fisher have impressed manager Craig Counsell so far, notes McCalvy. Manny Pina and Avisail Garcia are locks to be a member of the bench, which probably only leaves two spots. Assuming Travis Shaw makes the roster, that puts one of Shaw, Orlando Arcia, and Luis Urias on the bench as well. Daniel Robertson has been viewed as a favorite to win that final bench spot, in part because the infielder is out of options. Daniel Vogelbach is also out of options and on the 40-man roster. The big first baseman brings a limited, though valuable skill-set as a power bat off the bench. Of those players on the 40-man roster, Fisher, Jace Pederson, and Billy McKinney are also out of options, giving the Brewers much to think about as we inch closer to April 1.
  • Milwaukee may have a little bit of extra time to decide on that final roster spot, however. Lorenzo Cain hasn’t played in a week because of a quad issue, and there’s a chance he won’t be ready in time for opening day, per McCalvy (via Twitter). There’s still hope that he’ll be ready from the jump, but if not, the Brewers could roll with Bradley Jr. in center and Garcia in right, while taking the extra time to evaluate someone from their out-of-options pool.
  • Pirates manager Derek Shelton won’t spend much time thinking about who might claim the closer role until the last few days of camp, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel. Said Shelton, “We have a guy who we know can go to the back end and do it in Richie (Rodríguez), who did it last year, so I’m really not thinking about it.” That certainly sounds like Richard Rodriguez has the inside track on the job. There will certainly be enough bodies to choose from, as the Pirates plan to break camp with eight or nine relievers, notes Biertempfel. That said, there aren’t a lot of proven late-inning options to immediately wrench the role from Rodríguez. Kyle Crick is the most obvious challenger, with Chris Stratton perhaps snagging an opportunity or two after striking out close to 30 percent of hitters last season.

Phillies Likely Done Spending For Now

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The Phillies payroll is roughly where it was last year – at least as long as they entertain rostering Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson on opening day. A lot remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a possibility that the pair of veteran relievers makes the team. In that case, they would both make $3MM, pushing their luxury tax payroll close to $208MM, writes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Wanting to leave a touch of breathing room under the tax for an in-season acquisition, the Phillies are likely done adding Major League players. Whether the Phillies should trifle over surpassing the luxury tax by a million or two is certainly worth the question, but it’s not a level of spending they’ve breached in the past.

If they are using that line as a soft cap,  there won’t be much flexibility even for a mid-season acquisition. Clearing close to $6MM by not putting Kintzler and Watson on the roster might be appealing for that cause, but considering the disaster that was their 2020 bullpen, they may prefer having those veteran hands at the ready. Kintzler was the Marlins closer last year with a 2.24 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. Watson logged a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings for the Giants. Both have been steady Eddies for the past decade out of the bullpen.

Watson, for his part, fits a particular need for the Phillies. Southpaw Ranger Suárez is behind in his preparation by a couple of weeks because of visa issues, notes Gelb. Suárez would be one of the lefties competing for a spot in the bullpen. If Suárez isn’t ready for opening day, Watson would be in competition with JoJo Romero for deputy southpaw behind nominal sheriff José Alvarado. The 24-year-old Romero had a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances last year. There are plenty of reason to be bullish on Romero, however. He had a 3.66 FIP and minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate, suggesting better times may be ahead for the crowd-pleasing southpaw. Still, Watson is by far the most experienced arm with a 2.80 ERA/3.61 FIP in 591 career innings.

Damon Jones, Kyle Dohy, Cristopher Sánchez, and Bailey Falter are the other left-handers on the Phillies 40-man. None of the four have experience at the Major League level, however.

Orioles Notes: Sánchez, Jones, Zimmermann, Valdez

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The Orioles will have a pair of fresh faces up the middle this season with free agent additions Freddy Galvis and Yolmer Sánchez. Sánchez is a Gold Glove winner at second, but he’ll be pushed for playing time by the newly-acquired Jahmai Jones. Jones will work out in the outfield as well, but the Orioles view him as a second baseman, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. It was a bit surprising to see the Orioles net the former second round pick in exchange for Alex Cobb, as the former Angels farmhand was the top prospect in LA’s system as recently as 2017, per Baseball America. He was the 89th ranked prospect in all of baseball before the 2018 season.

On the pitching side, Baltimore made positive strides in 2020, finishing in the upper half of the league by fWAR and around the middle of the pack by measure of ERA (16th) and xFIP (18th). The struggle to allot rotation minutes remains a focal point, however. Bruce Zimmermann, for instance, hopes to make the rotation after seven debut innings in 2020. If Zimmerman doesn’t make the rotation, he could wind up in the pen as a bulk innings relievers, tweets Kubatko.

The same goes for César Valdez, notes Kukatko. Manager Brandon Hyde suggested that Valdez would be used in a number of different roles, but they will work to stretch him out in the spring in preparation for multi-inning stints and potentially turns in the rotation. The 35-year-old Valdez made nine appearances for the O’s in 2020 with a 1.26 ERA/2.14 FIP across 14 1/3 innings. It was Valdez’s first appearance in the bigs since 2017 and only his third stint since initially debuting with the Diamondbacks in 2010.

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