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Front Office Notes: Padres, Rangers, Phillies, Royals

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As the offseason nears, we’ve started to see some movement of front office personnel across teams. A few clubs have made significant changes to their executive staffs over the past few days.

  • Rangers assistant general manager Mike Daly is departing the organization to join the Padres’ front office, reports Jeff Wilson. (Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported this morning that Daly and the Friars were in talks). Daly had spent fifteen years with Texas working in international scouting and player development, the last five of which had come as assistant GM. He’ll now reunite with former Rangers’ executive A.J. Preller in San Diego. Daly becomes the second Rangers’ AGM in as many months to leave the organization; Shiraz Rehman departed in August, as the front office structure in Arlington continues to evolve under president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and first-year GM Chris Young.
  • While the Padres added one executive, they saw another depart. San Diego coordinator of advance scouting Preston Mattingly was hired as Phillies director of player development. (Dennis Lin of the Athletic first reported the news). Mattingly, the son of Marlins’ manager Don Mattingly and a former first-round draft choice, had spent the past five seasons with the Friars. The Padres have already seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office on the heels of their second half collapse.
  • The Royals announced a pair of promotions yesterday. Lonnie Goldberg has been promoted from assistant GM/amateur scouting to vice president of player personnel, while Danny Ontiveros has been bumped up from assistant director of scouting to scouting director. Both Goldberg and Ontiveros have been in the Kansas City organization for well over a decade, with much of that time spent in the club’s scouting department. Earlier this month, the Royals bumped longtime baseball operations leader Dayton Moore up to president of baseball operations, promoted AGM J.J. Piccolo to general manager, and brought veteran executive Gene Watson back into the fold after he departed Kansas City to join the Angels last winter.

Tommy Pham On Injuries, Free Agency

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Tommy Pham’s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.

Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.

In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.

“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”

Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.

Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”

From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.

It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.

Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.

“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”

[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]

That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.

Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.

Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.

Austin Nola To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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Padres catcher Austin Nola’s season is over, manager Jayce Tingler announced to reporters (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). He’d been attempting to play through a strained ligament in his left thumb, but he’ll now undergo surgery to address the issue. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

Nola’ third IL stint of the season will bring his year to a premature end. San Diego acquired Nola at last summer’s trade deadline while he was amidst a breakout campaign with the Mariners. His pace fell off a little bit down the stretch, but he still entered 2021 as one of the better catchers in baseball.

When healthy, Nola continued to produce on both sides of the ball. He hit .272/.340/.376 with one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates (9.8%). That’s exactly league average offense by measure of wRC+, a significant cut above the cumulative .228/.305/.392 line managed by catchers leaguewide. And Nola rated as a slightly above-average pitch framer, per Statcast, a continuation of his career trend in that regard.

Unfortunately, a series of health woes — fractured left middle finger, left knee sprain and today’s thumb strain — limited the 31-year-old to just 194 plate appearances in 56 games this season. Getting a full season from Nola will be key for a San Diego team that’ll look to contend in 2022. A miserable second half will almost certainly keep the Friars from the postseason this year, but they’ll bring back an extremely talented core in hopes of sticking near the top of a competitive NL West. A late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until his age-29 season, Nola won’t be eligible for arbitration until the end of next year and isn’t on track to reach free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.

Latest On Padres’ Front Office

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TODAY: Ryley Westman has been promoted from director of player development to farm director, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel (Twitter link).  Amateur scouting director Mark Conner has also been reassigned to a special assistant role, as international scouting director Chris Kemp will now assume Conner’s old duties.

SEPTEMBER 21: The Padres have decided not to renew the contract of farm director Sam Geaney, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. Geaney departs the organization after spending nearly seven years leading the club’s minor league system.

Geaney was hired in October 2014, just a couple months after the Padres tabbed A.J. Preller to lead baseball operations. The team made an ill-fated attempt to contend in Preller’s first year at the helm before committing to a significant teardown and rebuild. That process involved trading established big leaguers for prospects and a significant financial outlay in the international amateur market, leading to the construction of a farm system that was perhaps the game’s best for a couple years.

That rebuild began to bear fruit in 2019, when players like Fernando Tatís Jr. and Chris Paddack made their big league debuts. The team still struggled, but that changed in 2020. The Friars went 37-23 in last year’s shortened season, making the playoffs for the first time in fourteen years. In addition to bringing aboard talented young players like Tatís, Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth, Preller and the front office aggressively pursued star players in free agency and trade over the past few seasons. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado had been brought aboard on huge free agent deals, while San Diego built a star-studded rotation via trade, landing Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove (in addition to the since-injured Mike Clevinger) from other organizations.

That series of bold strikes had a few effects. It thinned out the once-vaunted farm system significantly. Luis Patiño, who went to the Rays in the Snell deal, was perhaps the only truly elite young talent sent away. But San Diego parted with a collection of generally well-regarded players, dealing a blow to the minor league depth. Still, that seemed a price worth paying to build a fantastic big league roster, and the Padres entered the 2021 campaign with extraordinarily high expectations.

Early in the season, San Diego looked well on their way to meeting those lofty goals. They won 32 of their first 50 games; by late May, their chances of making the postseason were approaching 99% in FanGraphs’ estimation. Things have changed dramatically since that high water mark, with the club particularly struggling coming out of the All-Star Break. The Padres have gone just 23-33 in the season’s second half, entering play tonight with a 76-73 record that places them four games behind the Cardinals in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot (with the Reds also a game above them in the standings). Their playoff chances — considered a near-lock a few months ago — have plummeted to 3.4%.

Given that collapse, there’s been plenty of speculation recently about potential staffing changes that would go beyond Geaney’s dismissal. Preller, who was promoted to president of baseball operations and extended through 2026 in February, doesn’t seem likely to be in much danger. But alterations to the coaching staff could be a more realistic possibility, and the team will at least have one notable coaching decision to make this coming offseason.

The Padres fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild on August 23, bumping bullpen coach Ben Fritz to the position on an interim basis. That hasn’t brought about any sort of immediate turnaround, as Padres hurlers rank just 22nd in ERA (4.90) and 15th in SIERA (4.20) since making the change. This winter, they’ll need to determine whether to hand the job to Fritz permanently.

Recent days have also brought about some speculation regarding second-year manager Jayce Tingler’s future in the organization. Over the weekend, Ken Rosenthal, Lin and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune separately reported that Tingler, whose contract runs through 2022, is facing increased scrutiny within the clubhouse. Both outlets report that some members in the organization have questioned whether Tingler — a 40-year-old skipper in his first managerial job — has done enough to command the respect of the locker room.

Clubhouse frustration boiled over publicly on Saturday, when Tatís engaged in respective shouting matches in the dugout with bench coach Bobby Dickerson and Machado. Tingler had previously been ejected from the game, and development coach Ryan Flaherty intervened to break up the argument.

It’s certainly no surprise that frustration is mounting in the organization, given the manner in which the team’s play has fallen off. But Rosenthal, Lin and Ghiroli suggested some with the team see the spat as a microcosm of a broader leadership void. Acee, meanwhile, reported that some members of the clubhouse have desired Tingler’s dismissal for a while — and would continue to do so even if the team rights the ship and manages an improbable playoff push over the season’s final couple weeks. Both pieces present a detailed look into a seemingly messy situation and are worth full perusals.

Despite that reported discord, it’s by no means a fait accompli that Tingler’s managing his final few games in San Diego. Acee cautions that some players in the clubhouse still stick by the skipper, instead expressing frustration with what they believe to be other players’ excuses for the team’s underperformance. Both the Athletic and the Union-Tribune note that Preller and Tingler, who previously worked together in the Rangers’ front office, are very close personal friends, leading some to question whether Preller would be willing to dismiss Tingler.

It’s also impossible to pin down precisely how much blame Tingler actually deserves for the team’s struggles. As mentioned, the Padres were quite successful last season, Tingler’s first at the helm. This year, the roster has been hit hard by injuries, particularly on the pitching side. Clevinger was lost to a Tommy John surgery over the offseason. Fifth starter Adrián Morejón required the same procedure in April. Darvish, Paddack and Snell have all missed some amount of time due to injury; Paddack and Snell remain on the IL. Top prospect MacKenzie Gore, expected to be a potential big league option entering the season, struggled significantly in the minors and hasn’t proven ready for a call-up.

That’s led the Padres to look for buy-low pickups in recent weeks, with the team signing Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez after they’d been released by other clubs. That came on the heels of a trade deadline in which the front office failed to bolster the rotation, despite reported pursuits of Max Scherzer and José Berríos. (Arrieta was designated for assignment this evening after struggling over four starts).

The Friars weren’t completely inactive. They landed second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Daniel Hudson only to see those players’ performances unexpectedly crater. But this extremely aggressive front office’s inability to land any rotation help was one of the more surprising takeaways immediately after the deadline, and it’s proven to be a significant storyline for the team in the second half.

For now, the Padres have tried to tamp down speculation about the future as they focus on the season’s final couple weeks. Tingler pushed back on the idea that he’d lost the respect of the clubhouse when speaking with reporters (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today) this evening. Machado and Tatís conducted a joint press conference tonight in which they claimed they’ve put Saturday’s incident behind them (video from Annie Heilbrunn of the Union-Tribune). It seems unlikely there’ll be any significant shakeup in San Diego while the season’s ongoing, but the Padres’ staffing decisions could prove to be one of the more important things to watch in the early portion of the upcoming offseason.

Padres Designate Jake Arrieta For Assignment

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The Padres announced they’ve designated Jake Arrieta for assignment. The move clears active and 40-man roster space for reliever Javy Guerra, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

It proved to be a very brief run in San Diego for Arrieta. Released by the Cubs in mid-August, the former Cy Young award winner hooked on with San Diego a few days later. The 35-year-old had struggled mightily in his return to Chicago, working 86 1/3 innings of 6.88 ERA ball with the Cubs. The Friars, thin on starting pitching depth and with a few key hurlers dealing with injury, gave Arrieta a few turns through their rotation in hopes he could find more success in a new environment.

That ultimately proved not to be the case, as Arrieta posted even worse results in his brief look as a Padre. He tossed 12 1/3 innings over four starts, interrupted by a brief injured list stint due to a hamstring strain. He was tagged for sixteen runs (fifteen earned) in that time, while his already lackluster strikeout and swinging strike rates dipped even further relative to his time with the Cubs.

It’s now been three seasons of subpar performance for Arrieta, who was one of the sport’s best handful of pitchers at his peak. The righty reeled off consecutive seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball from 2014-18, including a 2.53 in 2014 and a sterling 1.77 mark in his Cy Young winning 2015 campaign. That’s climbed successively from 4.64 to 5.08 to 7.39 over the past three years, though, as Arrieta has become one of the game’s least effective pitchers at missing bats while his velocity has fallen.

Arrieta will almost certainly reach free agency in the next few days, either via release or rejection of an outright assignment. In all likelihood, today’s designation will bring his 2021 campaign to a close. Given his significant recent struggles, it’s possible he’ll need to settle for a minor league deal to work his way back onto a big league roster this winter.

The injury woes that inspired the Padres to sign Arrieta have only intensified in the weeks since. They’re down to Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and the recently-signed Vince Velasquez as traditional rotation options, with Chris Paddack and Blake Snell currently on the 10-day injured list. It seems they’ll conduct a handful of bullpen games in the season’s final couple weeks as they try to claw back from a four-game deficit in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.

Guerra hasn’t pitched all season on account of a UCL issue. A former infielder, the hard-throwing righty was converted to mound work in 2019. Over 22 MLB innings, he owns an 8.18 ERA with a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate but a solid 50% ground-ball percentage.

While Guerra hasn’t yet found much big league success, the Padres clearly remain intrigued by his arsenal. The 25-year-old averaged 98 MPH on his sinker last season, making it easy to envision him as a grounder specialist out of the bullpen. Because of his early career as a position player, Guerra has exhausted all three of his minor league option years. That leaves the Padres with no choice but to carry him on the active roster or risk losing him on waivers. They’ve evidently determined to keep him with the major league team for now, and he figures to see some action as part of the aforementioned bullpen-heavy pitcher usage the Padres will need to deploy down the stretch.

Padres Outright Nick Ramirez

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Sept. 21: The Padres’ Triple-A affiliate, the El Paso Chihuahuas, announced that Ramirez has been assigned outright to their roster after going unclaimed on waivers.

Sept. 17: The Padres announced they’ve designated reliever Nick Ramirez for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Vince Velasquez, who has been selected to the big league club to start this evening’s game against the Cardinals. San Diego signed Velasquez to a minor league deal on Wednesday and announced at the time that he’d be added to the major league roster to make a start this weekend.

Ramirez signed a minor league deal with San Diego over the winter and was selected to the majors in mid-April. He’s been up-and-down over the course of the season, making thirteen MLB appearances and getting into 30 games with Triple-A El Paso. Often called upon to work multiple innings out of the bullpen, Ramirez has tallied 20 1/3 frames of 5.75 ERA ball at the big league level this year. He hasn’t missed many bats, striking out just 15.4% of opponents with a below-average 9.4% swinging strike rate. But Ramirez has avoided walks and induced ground-balls at a slightly above-average clip.

In the minors, Ramirez has had more success generating whiffs. He’s fanned an average 24.1% of batters faced with El Paso, although his ERA has been inflated by some poor sequencing and batted ball fortune. Opposing hitters have a .339 batting average on balls in play against Ramirez in the minors, and just over a third of the baserunners he’s allowed have come around to score, resulting in a similarly disappointing 5.23 ERA in Triple-A.

Ramirez appeared in the majors with the Tigers between 2019-20, logging 79 2/3 frames of relief during his rookie campaign. All told, the 32-year-old owns a 4.55 ERA in 110 2/3 innings at the highest level. The Friars will place Ramirez on waivers over the coming days. He’d have the right to elect free agency should he pass through unclaimed by virtue of the fact that he’s previously been outrighted in his career. Even if he were to accept an outright assignment, he’d qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season if he’s not added back to the 40-man roster before then.

Injury Notes: Paddack, Snell, Hill, Gallo

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It “seems more likely than not” that Blake Snell and Chris Paddack won’t pitch again for the Padres in 2021, sources tell Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  With just two weeks left in the regular season, time is running out for either pitcher to return from the 10-day injured list.  Paddack was retroactively placed on the IL on September 12 due to right elbow inflammation, while a groin strain sidelined Snell on September 15.

Snell isn’t likely to pitch again unless San Diego is still playing into the postseason, while Paddack has some smaller chance of a quicker return, as he said his elbow felt fine after a game of catch yesterday.  Still, Paddack was only throwing lightly from a 75-foot distance, so it remains to be seen if he can progress quickly enough to get back on the mound before the regular season is over.  “Regardless of how [Paddack] is feeling the Padres almost certainly won’t even consider him pitching again in 2021 if they are not squarely in contention,” Acee writes, and that latter scenario is starting to look more remote.  The reeling Padres are 5-10 in September, and have dropped 2.5 games behind the Cardinals for the last NL wild card slot.

More updates on injury situations from around the game…

  • Tigers outfielder Derek Hill had to be helped off the field via a cart and a wheelchair after suffering a knee injury in yesterday’s 4-3 win over the Rays.  Hill was trying to beat out a bunt grounder to first base, and seemed to hyper-extend his knee while colliding with Tampa first baseman Ji-Man Choi.  While Hill was still being examined by team medical staff, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press) that an IL trip seems pretty inevitable for the 25-year-old.  It seems as if Hill’s rookie season might well be over, after 49 games and 150 plate appearances that saw the 2014 first-round pick hit .259/.313/.388 with three home runs.  Injuries have been a big factor in Hill’s season, as he missed time in two separate IL stints due to a left ribcage contusion and a right shoulder sprain.
  • Joey Gallo left the Yankees’ 11-3 loss to the Indians yesterday due to neck tightness, and is day-to-day.  Gallo took one plate appearance before being replaced in left field prior to the start of the fourth inning.  Manager Aaron Boone told The Associated Press and other media that Gallo was receiving treatment on his neck before the game, and “I think after his first at-bat, it was just barking too much on him.”  While the injury seems pretty minor, the Yankees surely want one of their hottest bats back as quickly as possible to aid their pursuit of a wild card berth.  Gallo got off to a slow start after being acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, but has posted a 1.490 OPS and six home runs over his last 25 PA.

Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi

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After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list.  It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup.  Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers.  Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch.  X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers.  That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury.  After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
  • After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit.  However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days.  Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls.  MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
  • The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.”  The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning.  Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will be the second NL wild card team?
Cardinals 54.73% (7,461 votes)
Padres 17.33% (2,363 votes)
Reds 16.20% (2,209 votes)
Phillies 4.92% (671 votes)
Braves 3.62% (494 votes)
Mets 3.18% (434 votes)
Total Votes: 13,632

Padres Sign Vince Velasquez, Place Blake Snell On Injured List

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The Padres announced they’ve signed Vince Velasquez to a minor league contract. He’ll be selected to the big league roster to start a game against the Cardinals this weekend, per the team. They’ll need to make active and 40-man roster moves before his start. In related news, San Diego placed lefty Blake Snell on the 10-day injured list due to a left adductor groin strain.

Velasquez becomes the second recently-released pitcher added by San Diego in as many days. The Friars signed reliever Ross Detwiler to a major league deal yesterday, just a few days after he was cut loose by the Marlins. Those moves come a month after San Diego picked up Jake Arrieta once he was released by the Cubs. It has been an “all hands on deck” approach to a pitching staff that has been beaten up badly by injuries throughout the year.

It hasn’t been an especially productive season for Velasquez, who has only managed 81 2/3 innings over 21 appearances (including 17 starts). He’s pitched to a career-worst 5.95 ERA in that time despite a 23.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike percentage that each check in right around the league average.

That’s mostly a reflection of Velasquez’s walk and home run troubles, issues that plagued him throughout his six years in Philadelphia. He’s doled out free passes to a lofty 12.5% of opponents, the highest single-season mark of his career. And Velasquez’s always low ground-ball rate has dipped to 33.3% this year, nearly ten percentage points below the league average. That’s contributed to his serving up seventeen homers (1.87 HR/9), although the San Diego front office is surely hopeful a move to a less homer-friendly ballpark could alleviate that somewhat.

Velasquez’s recent struggles led to his release from Philadelphia yesterday. At this stage of the season, competent big league starting pitching is almost impossible to acquire, so the Friars moved quickly to add the 29-year-old once he passed through waivers. Velasquez had been on the injured list due to blister troubles at the time of his release, but he’d already made a pair of minor league rehab appearances. The team’s announcement that he’ll start this weekend suggests he’s healthy and ready to step back into MLB action.

Logging some innings will be critical for a San Diego team that has lost a pair of starters to the IL in recent days. Chris Paddack landed on the shelf earlier this week, and Snell joins him after leaving his start on Sunday night after just eleven pitches. The Friars were down to Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the rotation, so Velasquez steps in to add some length and hopefully make a few productive starts down the stretch. The Phillies will be on the hook for the balance of his $4MM salary, with the Padres’ paying him just the prorated portion of the league minimum.

As with yesterday’s Detwiler signing, picking up Velasquez is solely about improving the Padres’ odds of grabbing a Wild Card spot this year. Both players joined the organization after August 31 and would be ineligible for postseason play. They each have enough service time to qualify for free agency again this winter. So they’re both being brought in for the next three weeks only, with San Diego trying to outplay the Cardinals, Reds, Phillies and Mets for the National League’s final postseason spot. St. Louis is in pole position, holding a half-game advantage over Cincinnati and a one-game lead on the Padres.

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