Padres Rumors

Reaction To The Phillies/Jake Arrieta Agreement

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2018 at 11:23pm CDT

One of the offseason’s major free agents finally came off the board today, as Jake Arrieta agreed to a three-year, $75MM contract with the Phillies that will become official once the right-hander passes a physical. Here is some of the early reaction to the deal…

“For the Phillies, this was as close to a no-brainer as $25 million per season gets,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes. Murphy argues that the Phillies were simply in such dire need for starting pitching that a quality arm like Arrieta was too good to pass up, even at a significant price for a still-rebuilding team. Though Arrieta’s performance dipped in 2017, Murphy notes that even Arrieta’s down year still more or less equaled Aaron Nola’s numbers, so “in essence, the Phillies will have added another Nola even if Arrieta’s 2017 is his new normal.” Even if Arrieta declines further, the three-year length of the deal means that he won’t be much of a long-term burden on the Phils’ spending abilities.
The threat of such a decline, however, makes this signing “a strange one” for the Phillies, in the opinion of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required). Arrieta’s peripherals and velocity were both down in 2017, and Law wonders if “this is a Tim Lincecum situation where there’s no actual injury but he’s just wearing down after a great peak.” Even if Arrieta stabilizes his performance or regains some of his old form, Law questions the wisdom of a contract that will likely deliver most of its value before the Phillies are truly ready to contend.
“The Padres had more than passing interest in Jake Arrieta”, Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, but the $25MM average annual value of Arrieta’s contract was too high for San Diego’s liking. The club was known to have been at least considering the idea of going after the right-hander, who could’ve joined Eric Hosmer as the second major Scott Boras client to (surprisingly) sign with the Padres this winter. Lin feels the Padres are likely to stick with their current rotation mix rather than add another starting pitcher, though “there are fans of Alex Cobb in the organization.”
The Nationals had been mentioned as a speculative landing spot for Arrieta for much of the offseason, due to both the Nats’ possible need for another starter and Boras’ well-documented relationship with the Lerner family. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes, however, “Nats folks insisted from the beginning Boras was trying to make them more interested in Arrieta than they were.” Even if Washington was more likely to engage in Arrieta’s market if the price dropped, it seemingly never got low enough for the Nationals to make a strong bid.

Quick Hits: Early FA Offers, Padres, Labor Relations

By Jeff Todd | March 9, 2018 at 11:41pm CDT

Let’s round out the day’s coverage with a few interesting notes from around the game:

Three prominent players have reportedly agreed to terms in recent days, all settling for much less in dollars and years than had been expected. Reports also suggest that those players could have had greater earnings had they taken offers available previously. Though agent Scott Boras says Mike Moustakas never received a multi-year contract offer before returning to the Royals, two sources tell Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star that the Angels dangled a three-year pact in the range of $45MM. Meanwhile, the Rockies are said to have offered slugger Carlos Gonzalez an extension in the realm of three years and $45MM this time last year, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. And the Rox also were willing to go to three years, at a $21MM guarantee, to catcher Jonathan Lucroy earlier this winter, Nightengale adds on Twitter. (Lucroy is reportedly in agreement on a one-year deal with the Athletics, though terms are not yet known and the deal is not finalized.) Of course, in each case it’s easy to understand why the player in question might have elected against jumping at the reported opportunity at the point at which it was presented.
In other news that’s largely of historical interest, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provided some notes on the Padres’ offseason efforts. The team was able to land Eric Hosmer after Kansas City was unable to earn ownership authorization for its initially reported, seven-year offer, Heyman reports. That seemingly helps explain why subsequent reports indicated that K.C. never went that high in the bidding. San Diego also “made a big play” for outfielder Christian Yelich before he was shipped from the Marlins to the Brewers, Heyman notes in his leaguewide rundown of information. Notably, the Pads effectively ended up adding an outfielder when they inked Hosmer, thus pushing Wil Myers back onto the grass.
Some of the above information suggests, to an extent, that some players missed chances at bigger earnings, though perhaps it might only mean that others would have ended up enduring rough trips through free agency. And the reported offers are hardly overwhelming numbers for those players. Those interested in the broader subject of labor relations will certainly want to read this recent piece from Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, who takes a long look at what the union could do to begin fighting back against some of the problems that have arisen from the players’ perspective under the current CBA. Meanwhile, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America also tackles the subject, arguing that the owners will need to be careful not to press their advantage too strongly. And union chief Tony Clark discussed some of the qualms with the Marlins, who are one of the teams facing a grievance from the MLBPA, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports.

Free Agent Rumors: 2018-19 Class, Arrieta, Padres, CarGo, O’s

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2018 at 1:39pm CDT

The 2017-18 free agent drought has left plenty of players uncertain what to expect next year even with a potentially historic (albeit top-heavy) class of players set to hit the open market. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to nearly a dozen players on the matter, getting thoughts from Charlie Blackmon, Brad Brach, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Manny Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Adam Wainwright, Josh Donaldson, Pat Neshek and Evan Longoria. Some of that group are set to hit the market next winter, including Blackmon and Brach, both of whom expressed that this offseason’s market has them less excited for free agency and a bit concerned. Others such as Machado and Keuchel feel the market is in line for a correction.

“There’s too many really, really, talented players that have plaques in their houses and are generational players,” says Keuchel of next year’s class. “You’re talking about three potential Hall of Famers (Clayton Kershaw, Bryce Harper and Machado).” Donaldson (also a free agent next winter), Scherzer and Verlander, meanwhile, urged their fellow players to believe in their abilities, with Donaldson adding that he hopes no impending free agent is swayed into taking a poor deal before season’s end out of fear for a repeat of this winter’s market.

Some notes on the current crop of free agents…

The Padres have had “internal discussions” about Jake Arrieta, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman, though he notes that it’s not clear if the team has any interest in actually making an offer. Realistically, there are likely many clubs that aren’t obvious suitors for Arrieta and the remaining top-level free agents that have at least internally kicked around the idea of delving back into the open market with prices bottoming out in recent weeks. Arrieta “has the fortitude to wait things out,” per the report, however. Heyman notes that Padres sources have indicated they’re at least keeping tabs on market prices for several players, which, again, probably holds true for a number of clubs.
Meanwhile, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to two agents who represent two of the remaining starters on the market within the past week and was told that the Padres are “looking for pitching.” However, Padres officials emphasized to him that they’re not actively pursuing arms from outside the organization and are focused on the in-house options they have — both at the big league level and looming in one of the game’s best farm systems.
Heyman also writes that there’s still a chance the Rockies could bring Carlos Gonzalez back to Denver. The Rox have remained in touch with Gonzalez and Scott Boras, though Gonzalez is talking with “a couple” of clubs as he looks to find an offer to his liking. There hasn’t been much in the way of injuries to starting outfielders among contending clubs thus far in Spring Training, so no new opportunities for Gonzalez have really arisen.
Jon Jay was still seeking a fairly notable two-year deal when the Orioles signed Colby Rasmus to a minor league deal, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. The O’s even checked back with Jay’s camp last week, he adds, but didn’t get any indication that Jay was willing to sign the type of contract he took with the Royals: a one-year, $3MM deal with a reported $1.5MM available via incentives. Jay fit the profile the Orioles were reportedly seeking for much of the offseason — a left-handed hitter who would be an upgrade defensively over some of their current corner options.

Injury Notes: Gregerson, Marlins, Mets, Pomeranz, Dickerson

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2018 at 10:08am CDT

Presumptive Cardinals closer Luke Gregerson is dealing with a strained oblique, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. While such injuries can often take upwards of a month to heal, it seems that Gregerson’s could be more minor, with manager Mike Matheny referring to it only as a “little setback” that “doesn’t seem very bad.” That said, doctors haven’t placed a timeframe on Gregerson’s return to action, either. The 33-year-old Gregerson (34 in May) has pitched just once this spring, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll get back on the mound for his next appearance.

A few more health situations from around the league that are worth monitoring…

Marlins right-hander Brett Graves is also dealing with an oblique issue of undetermined severity, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. He’ll be shut down from throwing “for at least a few more days” as the team further evaluates. Graves’ status is of particular note given that he’s with the Marlins after being selected out of the Athletics organization in the Rule 5 Draft. While the rebuilding Marlins are clearly in a better position than most to carry a Rule 5 pick for a whole season, even a short absence would truncate the team’s ability to evaluate him first-hand this spring. Graves, 25, pitched to a 4.47 ERA between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season, logging 56 1/3 innings with 9.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He’s allowed five runs on four hits and four walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings this spring. Frisaro also notes that righty Brian Ellington won’t throw for a few days due to tendinitis in his right biceps. Ellington is vying for a big league bullpen job after whiffing 48 hitters in 44 2/3 MLB frames last year. Those strikeouts, however, came with a sky-high 7.25 ERA.
Amed Rosario apparently overcompensated for his ailing knee to the point where he developed some tightness in his hamstring and groin, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. None of the issues facing Rosario seem especially serious, as Mets manager Mickey Callaway suggested that the Rosario’s absence from the lineup for the past few days “probably” won’t jeopardize his Opening Day readiness. That said, Callaway did note that it’s at least somewhat of a concern that Rosario is missing some “valuable reps and playing time.” Ackert also notes that Jacob deGrom is set to make his first spring start on Sunday. That may not be soon enough to be ready for Opening Day, but it seems likely to have him on track to start one of the team’s early regular-season games.
The Red Sox were able to breathe a sigh of relief this week as Drew Pomeranz was cleared to restart a throwing program after a brief scare with a mild flexor strain, writes the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham. Manager Alex Cora didn’t want to proclaim that Pomeranz would be ready to go for the beginning of the season just yet, though Abraham notes that his current schedule should allow him to be healthy enough to take the ball for Boston’s fourth or fifth game of the year, barring any setbacks.
Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson, who was diagnosed with a sprained UCL recently, could be looking at Tommy John surgery to repair his throwing elbow, tweets Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Dickerson, who missed all of the 2017 season due to back surgery, is still considering a non-surgical rehab program as well, however.

NL West Notes: Dickerson, Dodgers, Ohtani, D-backs

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2018 at 9:48pm CDT

Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow, and surgery is a possibility, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. It’s a tough break for the 27-year-old Dickerson, who missed all of the 2017 season following back surgery but showed some promise at the plate in his rookie campaign in 2016. That year, Dickerson slashed .257/.333/.455 with 10 homers in 285 plate appearances while walking at a 9.1 percent clip and fanning in just 15.4 percent of his plate appearances. Per Cassavell, the club is “hopeful” that Dickerson won’t require Tommy John surgery, but even if he doesn’t require surgery, he’s likely to miss at least the first month of the season.

West Notes: Kershaw, Hamels, D-backs, Padres

By Connor Byrne | March 3, 2018 at 6:25pm CDT

There continues to be hope that the top pitcher in the game, left-hander Clayton Kershaw, will remain with the Dodgers beyond the upcoming season. Kershaw, who could opt out of the final two years and $65MM on his contract next winter, said last week that he and Dodgers management are “on the same page.” Then, on Saturday, Dodgers owner Mark Walter told Jon Heyman of FanRag that “[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life.” While it doesn’t seem as if a new deal is imminent – both Walter and Kershaw suggested to Heyman that the hurler wants to wait until the end of the year to sort out his future – the three-time Cy Young winner gushed over his long tenure with the franchise. “I love it here. It’s great,” said Kershaw, who’s entering his age-30 season. “I’ve had an amazing run here. And I don’t take that for granted. Not many guys can say they get to go to the playoffs (almost) every year, or even that they have a chance to go to the playoffs every year.”

More from the majors’ West divisions…

The Rangers could elect to use a six-man rotation this year, but their best starter, Cole Hamels, isn’t on board (via Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News). The 34-year-old southpaw opined Saturday that a six-man starting staff isn’t “appropriate for where I am at this stage.” Hamels also took a shot at the idea in general, saying: “It’s not part of baseball. I know that’s the new, analytical side, trying to re-invent the wheel. … that’s just not what MLB is to me. That’s not how I learned from my mentors. That’s not the way I’m geared to pitch.” Unfortunately for Hamels, manager Jeff Banister favors the six-man alignment and seems more likely than ever to try it this season, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Regardless of how Texas’ rotation plans shake out, it’ll probably need a bounce-back year from Hamels to have any chance at a playoff spot. The longtime front-end starter endured arguably the worst season of his career in 2017, when he logged a 4.20 ERA/4.62 FIP with 6.39 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 across 148 innings.
The Diamondbacks are still determining their starting middle infield for 2018, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com writes. Either Ketel Marte or Chris Owings could start at second base or shortstop, while Nick Ahmed is also in contention – but only at short. “I’d say on that front, we value Nick as a shortstop,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “I haven’t had a conversation with him beyond playing shortstop at this point.” With the exception of an 11-inning stint at the keystone in 2014, his first taste of major league action, Ahmed has spent his entire career at short. He has dazzled defensively, evidenced by his 37 DRS and 19.6 UZR, but has only managed a .226/.273/.345 batting line in 1,020 plate appearances.
The Padres have temporarily halted right-hander Colin Rea’s throwing program after he experienced soreness in his pitching shoulder Friday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Rea, who’s working back from 2016 Tommy John surgery, is now unlikely to be ready for the start of the year, Cassavell suggests. Consequently, it appears he’s out of the running for a spot in the Padres’ season-opening rotation, though Cassavell notes that they still have seven other candidates for their starting five.

NL West Notes: Samardzija, Padres, Rockies

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2018 at 1:28am CDT

Giants righty Jeff Samardzija held an interesting chat with MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In large part, it’s a lengthy discussion of Samardzija’s multi-sport background and decision to pursue baseball professionally — which, he says, was driven more by interest than any considerations of the health implications of playing in the NFL. The San Francisco hurler likens the game of baseball to a “big painting you put together” and hints he could still have some masterpieces in his brush. He also suggests he’s not yet thinking about the end: “Where’s the end of the wick? Who knows? Let’s find out. That’s the fun of it all.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/1/18

By Steve Adams | March 1, 2018 at 12:07pm CDT

Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…

The Padres have added veteran outfielder Cole Gillespie on a minor league contract, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. San Diego already has a fairly notable outfield crunch, though Gillespie is surely viewed as little more than a minor league depth option at this juncture. The 33-year-old didn’t play in affiliated ball last season, splitting the year between the Mexican League and the independent Atlantic League and batting a combined .283/.353/.384. Gillespie logged 212 plate appearances for the 2015-16 Marlins and hit .276/.318/.413 in that time — his most recent MLB action. He’s spent parts of six seasons in the Majors, where he’s batted .251/.305/.367, and he’s a career .289/.381/.459 hitter in parts of eight Triple-A campaigns.

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, Williamson

By Steve Adams | February 28, 2018 at 10:43pm CDT

Over at Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe takes an analytic approach to forecasting a new contract for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, assuming the three-time Cy Young winner opts out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his current deal after the season. Jaffe notes that, historically speaking, seven-year deals are the norm for elite arms inking both extensions and free-agent pacts, adding that it seems reasonable for Kershaw and his reps at Excel Sports Management to strive for a record-setting average annual value that’d top the current highwater mark set by former teammate Zack Greinke ($34.417MM). That’d set the baseline at something in the vicinity of $241MM over a seven-year term, which seems staggering for a pitcher’s age-31 through age-37 seasons, though Jaffe utilizes multiple projection models and aging curves to demonstrate that Kershaw could actually be, statistically speaking, a strong candidate to nonetheless provide surplus value (or something close to it).

Jaffe also notes that the Dodgers probably wouldn’t risk a new extension beginning with the 2018 season for luxury tax purposes, though a contract announced after Opening Day and beginning with the 2019 season would not count against their current luxury tax ledger. It’s an interesting look at one of the most interesting contractual situations in all of baseball and is well worth a full look.

NL West Notes: Towers, Kershaw, Tribe, Shaw, Young, Mitchell

By Mark Polishuk | February 25, 2018 at 7:42pm CDT

The late Kevin Towers was memorialized at a “Celebration Of Life” ceremony today at Petco Park, with scores of Towers’ friends and colleagues from around baseball in attendance. The Associated Press’ Jay Paris and the Padres’ Bill Center each have details on some of the memorials from the 22 speakers who shared their experiences and fond memories of Towers, whose 35 years in baseball included stints as the general manager of the Padres and the Diamondbacks. “He was one of the guys that always brought all the GMs together,” said former Reds and Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty. “Kevin loved life and lived it to the fullest. He suffered a lot in the last two years but he always stayed positive and fought a brave fight. There will never be another KT.”

Some more items from around the NL West…

Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi stated earlier this week that the team is keeping an “open dialogue” with Clayton Kershaw about a potential contract extension. The ace southpaw seemingly agreed with that statement today, telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick) that Zaidi’s description of the relationship is “a good way to put it.” Kershaw also said that he is “on the same page” with Dodgers management. Kershaw is signed through the 2020 season, though he can walk away from the final two seasons (and $55MM) on his contract if he exercises an opt-out clause after the coming season. He turns 30 in March and injuries have limited Kershaw to only 324 innings over the last two seasons, though he has still performed to his usual elite level when healthy. An extension would remove Kershaw from the 2018-19 free agent class, a group that is heavy on big names overall but potentially rather slim on the pitching side should Kershaw remain in Los Angeles.
Bryan Shaw’s decision to join the Rockies was helped by an endorsement from his former Indians manager Terry Francona, Shaw tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila. “I talked to Tito a little bit about the teams that had interest in me. I got his opinion of the organizations — the managers and others with roles within those organizations. He had nothing but good things to say about Bud Black and the guys who are here,” Shaw said. Cleveland’s front office also offered help with any questions Shaw might’ve had about other teams, a further sign of the good relationship between the right-hander and his former team. Shaw said that he and the Tribe had talks about a possible contract extension midway through last season, “but from a numbers standpoint it never got there.” In December, Shaw signed a three-year deal with Colorado worth $27MM in guaranteed money, plus a potential vesting option for the 2021 season that would pay him $7MM in additional salary.
Also from Laurila’s piece, he hears from right-hander Chris Young that multiple teams contacted the veteran about potential front office positions this winter. The 38-year-old isn’t quite ready to retire, and in fact hopes to play two more seasons, though he is realistic that his on-field future could be decided within the next few weeks. “This spring is going to determine that. I’m either going to show that I’m back to being myself, or that my stuff isn’t playing. If my stuff isn’t there and I can’t get outs, the time will have come to move on from the playing side,” Young said. The Padres signed Young to a minor league deal this winter to see if he can rebound from a very rough pair of seasons; Young posted a 6.52 ERA over 118 2/3 innings with the Royals in 2016-17, allowing a whopping 35 home runs in that stretch.
After three years of shuttling between Triple-A and the Yankees’ big league roster, Bryan Mitchell is relieved to finally have a stable place in the Padres’ rotation, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. “It’s awesome….To know that now, I can set all my focus on Opening Day and working toward that. I don’t have to put pressure on myself or worry about that,” Mitchell said. “It’s just less stress, to be honest — to know that’s how they [the Padres] feel and I have that waiting on me. I can just set my goals on that first start and have everything ready versus have everything ready and not knowing. It eliminates the unknown factor.” The Padres felt strongly enough about Mitchell’s potential that they were willing to take on the $13MM remaining on Chase Headley’s contract in order to acquire the right-hander from New York.

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