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Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation Plans

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Entering camp, the expectation was that Carlos Martinez would regain his standing as a member of the Cardinals’ starting five. That may ultimately come to pass, though he’ll first need to work back to full strength. In Martinez’s absence, Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets, the Cards will utilize either John Gant or Dakota Hudson to round out the rotation.

Gant, 26, is one of several out-of-options Cardinals hurlers. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA last year in 114 frames over 19 starts and seven relief appearances. The results came in spite of a marginal combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 with a 45.1% groundball rate. Gant’s success was driven largely by suppression of home runs (0.71 per nine) and batting average on balls in play (.253), the sustainability of which is questionable. If he’s not in the rotation, Gant will either need to find a landing spot in the bullpen or be exposed to waivers.

Options abound for Hudson, a 24-year-old former first-round pick. He could begin the season as the fifth big-league starter, take a job in the MLB pen, or stay stretched out in the Triple-A rotation. In 19 starts last year at the highest level of the minors, Hudson worked to a 2.50 ERA over 111 2/3 innings with 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a hefty 57.5% groundball rate. The worm-burners kept coming during his 26-appearance foray into the Cards pen. Though he managed only 19 strikeouts against 18 walks in his first 27 1/3 MLB frames, Hudson allowed nary a home run. That’s no fluke; Hudson has permitted only eight long balls in over three hundred professional innings pitched.

Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are other 40-man members that might have been seen as possibilities. Each started MLB contests last year but has evidently already been ruled out of the Opening Day rotation race. As the news further suggests, hugely talented youngster Alex Reyes is also out of the mix to open the season as a starter. But that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be optioned at the end of camp. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets, manager Mike Shildt says that Reyes will be considered for a relief post. Reyes, 24, is working back from significant shoulder and elbow surgeries and will surely face innings limitations.

Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani

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The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.

Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:

  • The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
  • Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
  • Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, Flaherty, Hicks

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  • Retirement is hardly imminent for 36-year-old Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’d like to play at least one more season with the team after his current contract runs out. Molina’s signed through 2020, which will be his 16th season and a year in which he’ll pass Bob Gibson to become the second-longest tenured player in the Cardinals’ storied history. However, while Molina wants to make it to at least Year 17, the potential Hall of Famer has no interest in overstaying his welcome in the majors. “I don’t want to retire when I hit .190 and I can’t throw anybody out at second,” said Molina, who batted .261 and caught 31 percent of would-be base stealers in 2018. When Molina finally does close out his playing career, don’t expect him to become the latest ex-catcher to become a big league manager, as he tells Hummel he’s uninterested in going down that road.
  • Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty, 23, was among the best young starters in baseball last season, when he recorded a 3.34 ERA/3.86 FIP with 10.85 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 across 151 innings. As a pre-arbitration player, though, Flaherty won’t earn a salary commensurate with his 2018 production. The Cardinals renewed Flaherty for just over the $555K minimum – $562,100 – after they were unable to reach an agreement with him, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch reports. The club first offered Flaherty $572,100, but he wasn’t willing to accept that sum, per Goold, who writes that the team determines a pre-arb player’s worth with “essentially a weighted Wins Above Replacement that takes into account service time.” Flaherty racked up 2.6 WAR in 2018, while reliever Jordan Hicks – who also wasn’t able to agree to a 2019 salary with the Cardinals – totaled 0.3. Hicks, like Flaherty, will earn less this year than the team initially offered him, though it’s unclear exactly how much he’ll make, per Goold. While neither player harbors ill feelings against the Cardinals, Flaherty contends that “the system as a whole is not great.” It’s hard to argue with him, especially given that reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is also in line for a near-minimum salary this season.

Martinez 5-7 Days From Throwing; Gyorko Sidelined Up To A Week

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  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez is still another five to seven days away from even being able to throw. Meanwhile, a calf strain will sideline utility infielder Jedd Gyorko for about a week. Martinez has been slowed by shoulder weakness this spring and already received a platelet-rich plasma injection, though a timetable on his readiness for game activity will remain murky until the team can see how he responds to throwing. There’s been talk of him working as a reliever in 2019, as he did late in the 2018 season. Meanwhile, Gyorko figures to be a key backup all around the infield. A longer-than-expected absence for him would open more playing time for Yairo Munoz early in the season.

Pena Injury Could Open Door For Wieters

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  • The competition to serve as the Cardinals’ backup to catcher Yadier Molina may have gained further clarity Tuesday, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Francisco Pena will be sidelined for the next 10 to 15 days due to an apparent oblique injury. It’s awful timing for Pena, who looked like the primary choice to serve as Molina’s backup until the Cardinals signed Matt Wieters to a minor league contract last week. Now, with Pena ailing, Wieters looks all the more likely to secure a roster spot with the Cards come Opening Day. While Pena would be the stronger defensive option of the two, even Wieters’ diminished offensive production in recent seasons dwarfs that of Pena; in 271 plate appearances last season, Wieters slashed .238/.330/.374 to Pena’s .203/.239/.271 (142 PAs).

O'Neill Expected To Make Opening Day Roster

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As things currently stand, slugging outfielder Tyler O’Neill is expected to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards “have reserved a spot for him as a spare outfielder, for now,” Goold writes, noting that poor health in the shoulder of Marcell Ozuna and/or continued struggles for Dexter Fowler could eventually thrust him into a larger role. And with Ozuna set to hit free agency at season’s end, a more natural path to everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old O’Neill isn’t hard to see. As Goold highlights in chatting with hitting coach Jeff Albert, O’Neill has worked diligently to improve his contact skills as he seeks a more well-rounded offensive profile. O’Neill slugged 35 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season but punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances in Triple-A and more than 40 percent of his 142 PAs in the Majors.

Brett Cecil Battling Mechanical Issues

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  • Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil will stay out of game action until late next week as he battles mechanical issues, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes. Cecil and the Cardinals insist he’s physically fine, but the southpaw noticed in his Wednesday appearance that he was leaving the mound too early and didn’t have his left arm in the correct position when he came set, Langosch writes He’ll need to fix those issues to have any chance at rebounding from a dreadful 2018 in which he logged a 6.89 ERA with 5.23 K/9 and 6.89 BB/9 in 32 2/3 innings. Cecil’s now in the third season of a four-year, $30.5MM contract that hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Cardinals thus far.

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

Cards Were Only Team To Extend Offer To Matt Wieters

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  • The Cardinals were the only team that made Matt Wieters an offer this winter, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets, which is why the veteran catcher signed on with St. Louis on a minor league deal.  Wieters is far from the only veteran who had a tough time finding work in the quiet free agent market, and the former four-time All-Star’s value took a severe hit following three consecutive subpar years with the Orioles and Nationals.  While Wieters had to settle for a non-guaranteed deal, he at least has a solid shot at winning the job as Yadier Molina’s backup.

Cardinals Sign Matt Wieters

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FEB. 28: Wieters would earn $1.5MM in the majors and can opt out on March 22nd, per Mark Saxon of The Athletic (via Twitter).

FEB. 27: The signing has been announced. It includes an invitation to MLB camp.

FEB. 26: The Cardinals have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran catcher Matt Wieters, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Salary terms are not yet known.

While he held out in hopes of securing a MLB commitment, the 32-year-old Wieters will settle instead for a chance to serve as a backup to Yadier Molina. The competition is fairly limited. Francisco Pena seemingly held the edge at the outset of camp after re-joining the organization on a minors pact. Joe Hudson is the only other backstop in camp with MLB experience.

Wieters can still put the ball over the fence, and posted career-best plate discipline marks in 2018, but he has not been very productive with the bat of late. Since the start of the 2016 season, he’s producing at only a .235/.303/.376 rate through 1,200 trips to the plate. That’s a far cry from the .254/.317/.436 output that Wieters managed over the prior half-decade.

Wieters isn’t generally regarded as a high-quality overall defender at this stage of his career, and fares poorly in particular in pitch-framing metrics, but does still block, throw, and manage a staff well. It’s possible there’s still some hope that he’ll restore some of his lost luster with the bat, making this a nice low-risk move for the St. Louis organization.

For the Cards, the addition deepens the catching unit as Molina closes in on his 37th birthday and works to recover from an offseason knee procedure. The switch-hitting Wieters has historically performed better against right-handed pitching, as has Molina, but neither carries significant career platoon splits. If Wieters can beat out Pena for the job, he seems like a potentially solid mate for Molina.

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