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Cardinals “Unlikely” To Meet Asking Price For Carlos Rodón

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The Cardinals are one of the many teams to have been connected to free agent lefty Carlos Rodón. However, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that it’s “unlikely the Cardinals would shell out the years and money” that Rodón is seeking.

The fact that the Cards have been priced out of Rodón’s market isn’t exactly shocking. The latest report on his asking price indicates that he’s looking for a guarantee over $200MM on a deal of seven years or longer. That’s extremely rarefied air for a pitcher, with only a handful ever reaching either that length or that kind of guarantee or both.

The Cardinals have never given out that kind of money to any player, a pitcher or otherwise. They’ve never really come close, in fact. The largest contract in franchise history is the five-year, $130MM extension they gave to Paul Goldschmidt in March of 2019. The largest guarantee they’ve given a free agent is the $120MM they gave to Matt Holliday in 2010. The largest contract they’ve given a pitcher was the $97.5MM extension given to Adam Wainwright in March of 2013, whereas the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016.

A deal in the $200MM range for Rodón would dwarf any of those deals, meaning that the Cardinals have to set an aggressive new standard to get it done, even in a vacuum. Outside of the vacuum, there are other factors that also make it unlikely. The highest Opening Day payroll in club history is $164MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already effectively even with that record, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. The club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that the club will increase payroll this season, but meeting Rodón’s asking price would mean going about $30MM beyond previous levels in 2023 while also adding significant long-term commitments. Between Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, the Cards already have over $40MM on the books for 2026 and over $30MM for 2027. Giving Rodón what he’s looking for would come close to doubling those figures and have the club committing a huge chunk of their payroll to three players who will each be in their mid-30s by then.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year.

It’s always possible that Rodón’s asking price will come down if he fails to find a deal that he likes. As mentioned, it’s quite rare for pitchers to crack $200MM. Only six pitchers have ever gone above that line: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Rodón has been quite good over the past two seasons but doesn’t have the track record to match up with those guys in their respective primes. Injuries have limited him to 847 1/3 innings so far in his career and he only just cracked 170 for a single season for the first time in 2022. Each of those other guys had multiple seasons of over 200 innings and well over 1,000 total innings. Starting pitcher usage has gone down in recent years but it’s still a significant difference.

There are many teams still interested, such as the Yankees, Twins, Giants and others. However, no one has met his asking price just yet. If it drops, perhaps the Cardinals will reconsider their pursuit, but it doesn’t seem to be the most probable course of events at the moment.

Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market

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10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.

2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.

The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.

After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.

The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.

As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.

Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.

At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.

Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.

Curt Simmons Passes Away

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The Phillies announced that former big leaguer Curt Simmons has passed away. He was 93 years old.

Born and raised in Pennsylvania, Simmons got his big break when pitching in an exhibition match between the Phillies and local high school players. Simmons struck out 11 Phils and then signed with the club on a $65K bonus. He went on to make his MLB debut in 1947 and stick around in the majors through the 1967 season, getting into 20 different campaigns. Most of that came with the Phillies, though he also pitched for the Cardinals, Cubs and Angels.

After a few decent seasons, he broke out in 1952, posting a 2.82 ERA in 201 1/3 innings of work. He made the All-Star team that year, the first of three such appearances in his career, also getting selected in 1953 and 1957. With the Cardinals in 1964, Simmons threw 244 innings with a 3.43 ERA, followed by another two starts in the World Series. He posted a 2.51 ERA in 14 1/3 innings as the Cardinals defeated the Yankees 4-3.

He would go on to pitch in the next three seasons, with 1967 being his last. He finished his career with 3,348 1/3 innings over 569 games. His win-loss record was 193-183, with 163 complete games, 36 shutouts and 1,697 strikeouts. He made three All-Star teams and won a World Series. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and all those mourning him today.

Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon

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The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.

Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.

That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.

Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.

The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.

Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.

New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.

Pitching Notes: Cardinals, Eovaldi, Rodón

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Currently boasting a staff of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals were not predicted to be heavily involved in the free-agent starting pitcher market this offseason. Nevertheless, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is aware that, “a year from now, we know we’re going to need starting pitching,” per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak added that the team has recognized that they will have to replace or re-sign four starters after the 2023 season.

Wainwright, who re-signed with St. Louis on a one-year, $17.5MM deal with incentives, has already stated that the 2023 season will be his last. Additionally, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery will all be free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Matz and Hudson are the only starters with a contract for the 2024 season, with Matz signed through the 2025 season and Hudson a free agent after 2024. Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to explore contract extensions with at least two of the starters who are unsigned beyond 2023,” with Mikolas being the most likely candidate.

The Cardinals are currently projected to enter the 2023 season with a payroll of $171.9MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, after the season, they are forecasted by Roster Resource to have only $94MM in commitments — giving them ample room to add to their team. Despite this financial freedom, Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “have some young starters coming,” perhaps signaling a desire to avoid free agent starters in order to fit within the team’s budget.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (the Cardinals’ No.4 Prospect) struggled in his Major League debut during the 2022 season, pitching to a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with a 17.4 SO% and 11.2 BB%. He didn’t fare much better in his second season at Triple-A Memphis, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 115 innings with a 23.5 SO% and 8.3 BB%. Nevertheless, Liberatore is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to settle in at the Major League level. Additionally, Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals’ No.3 Prospect), Tink Hence (No.6), and Michael McGreevy (No.9) all are expected to make their debuts during the 2024 season, with Graceffo and McGreevy earning promotions to Double-A Springfield during the 2022 season, while Hence spent the entire season with Single-A Palm Beach.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox do not view former All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as a top priority in their starting rotation search. Bradford adds that other teams are showing more interest in Eovaldi than the level currently displayed by Boston. The Mets were previously rumored to be in on Eovaldi, but their recent five-year, $75MM deal with Kodai Senga likely takes them out of the running for the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Eovaldi joined Boston during the 2018 season, with the righty helping them win the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox rewarded the starter with a four-year, $68MM contract that resulted in 407 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA baseball, with a solid 24.4 SO% and strong 5.6 BB%. Despite being limited to 20 starts in 2022 due to low back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings with a 22.4 SO% and 4.4 BB%.
  • In other St. Louis news, the Cardinals have reportedly entered the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. With Rodon seeking a seven-year deal and St. Louis having only two starters signed for the 2023 season, the Cards might look to join the bidding war for the two-time All-Star’s services. Rodon, 30, signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants during the 2021 offseason, with an opt-out after the first year. Brushing aside injury concerns and making a career-high 31 starts, the southpaw pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings, with an absurd 33.4 SO% and strong 7.3 BB% before opting out of the contract at the end of the season. For his part, Mozeliak has remained coy, stating that while the team does “have some resources available,” but that he wouldn’t “believe many of the rumors you’re reading right now,” per Derrick Goold.

Angels Pursued Willson Contreras Prior To Cardinals Deal

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In recent days, it was reported that the Cardinals and Astros had each given multi-year offers to catcher Willson Contreras, with the Cardinals eventually winning the bidding by giving him five-year, $87.5MM deal. However, there was one other team apparently at the table, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Angels were one of the teams outbid by the Cards.

The Angels have been fairly active so far this offseason, adding to their pitching staff by signing Tyler Anderson for their rotation and Carlos Estévez for their bullpen, while adding Gio Urshela to their infield and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield. It seems they are still hoping to make further moves, but the fact that they pursued a catcher like Contreras is at least mildly surprising since that doesn’t stand out as the club’s most obvious weak spot.

Max Stassi had a nice breakout for the Halos over 2020 and 2021, getting into 118 games and hitting .250/.333/.452 for a wRC+ of 113, indicating he was 13% better than league average. When combined with his strong glovework, he produced 3.6 wins above replacement over that time, according to FanGraphs. With Stassi set to reach free agency after 2022, the club signed him to an extension that went through 2024 with an club option for 2025. Unfortunately, he had a dismal campaign in 2022, hitting just .180/.267/.303. He probably deserved better than that, however, as his .239 batting average on balls in play was below his .276 career mark and well below his .325 from 2021. With another two guaranteed seasons on his deal, he’s sure to be in the mix somehow with a chance to bounce back.

Then there’s also Logan O’Hoppe, who came over from the Phillies in the deadline deal that sent Brandon Marsh to Philadelphia. Between the two clubs, he annihilated Double-A pitching last year, leading to a batting line of .283/.416/.544 and a wRC+ of 159. He skipped Triple-A to get a five-game cup of coffee in the big leagues as the season was winding down.

Neither Stassi or O’Hoppe are a sure thing, but it would have been reasonable enough to go into the season with the two of them each jockeying for playing time and letting it get sorted as the season went along. However, it seems the club has at least some openness to upgrade, based on their pursuit of Contreras. It’s possible they want to give O’Hoppe more time in the minors or maybe that they would have pursued trades with Stassi if they landed Contreras.

General manager Perry Minasian recently told members of the media that the club could push pay the competitive balance tax in 2023 with no ownership mandate against it. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $198MM with a CBT figure of $213MM. The first threshold of the luxury tax will be $233MM next year, giving the Angels about $20MM to work with before they have to think about whether they are willing to cross the line or not.

Contreras ended up signing a five-year, $87.5MM deal, with comes to an average annual value of $17.5MM. We don’t know exactly how much the Angels were willing to spend on Contreras, but something in this vicinity would have gotten them close to luxury tax territory. Assuming the Angels still have that money to spend on other players, it’s a good sign for Angel fans. The club could look for another backstop but have also been connected to shortstops and bullpen help. Since Contreras was clearly on a different tier to the other available free agent backstops, it’s possible that the Angels were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily circle down to the other options. However, if they are interested in pursuing help behind the plate, the free agent market has options like Christian Vázquez and Gary Sánchez. The trade market is highlighted by Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen, though the asking prices on from both the A’s and the Jays are reportedly quite high.

Cardinals Sign Willson Contreras To Five-Year Deal

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December 9: The Cardinals made it official, announcing that they have signed Contreras to a five-year deal with a club option for 2028. Specifics of the option aren’t known, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes it’d push the total outlay north of $100MM if exercised.

December 7: The Cardinals have a deal that would bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis for five years and $87.5MM. The longtime Cub will stay in the NL Central but will suit up for their top rival.

St. Louis has been determined to find a starting catcher this offseason. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken of that being the team’s top priority on a number of occasions, and he told reporters on Monday he hoped to land their new backstop before the Winter Meetings wrapped up this afternoon. It appears the Cards will come through on that goal by nabbing the undisputed top free agent option at the position.

Contreras is one of the game’s more consistent offensive threats behind the plate. He’s been an average or better hitter in every season of his career. Over parts of seven MLB seasons, he carries a .256/.349/.459 line. While he’s never topped 25 home runs, he’s eclipsed the 20-homer mark on four separate occasions. With only a half-season of action in 2016 and the truncated schedule in 2020, Contreras only once failed to reach 20 longballs over a full year of playing time (back during a 2018 campaign that proved his worst year to date).

The three-time All-Star will bring that offensive ability to Busch Stadium, while he’ll join Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as right-handed presences in the middle of the lineup. Contreras performed as well as he ever has during his platform year, putting up a .243/.349/.466 line with 22 homers across 487 trips to the plate in his final season as a Cub. Those slash stats are about par for the course for Contreras’ career, but they become increasingly valuable in a league where offense was down significantly. By measure of wRC+, his production was 32 percentage points above league average, the highest such mark of his career.

That offense is even rarer when compared to his positional peers. On the whole, catchers mustered just a .228/.295/.368 line this past season. Of the 29 backstops with 300+ plate appearances, Contreras trailed only Alejandro Kirk, Adley Rutschman and his younger brother William Contreras in on-base percentage. Only William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, J.T. Realmuto and Travis d’Arnaud had a higher slugging mark.

Contreras backs that strong production up with quality batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity has topped 90 MPH in each of the past two seasons, while he’s bested a 47% hard contact rate in each of the last three years. For reference, the league average marks in those respective categories are 88.4 MPH and and 35.8%. Contreras’ strikeout and walk marks typically hover around average, leading to a solid offensive profile built around his above-average power.

While there’s little question of his offensive track record, Contreras’ glove has been a key talking point for months. With the Cubs out of contention at this past trade deadline and showing little appetite to work out a long-term deal, the 30-year-old backstop was one of the summer’s prime trade candidates. Concerns about his ability to manage a pitching staff and call a game trickled out in the weeks leading up to August 2, and the Cubs wound up hanging onto him. That’s not to say there was no interest — reports later emerged the Astros were prepared to send starter José Urquidy to Chicago in a one-for-one swap before Houston ownership killed the deal — but trepidations about his game-calling acumen have lingered into the offseason.

That’s an unquantifiable concern, and it’s probably not as pressing an issue with Contreras having a few months to build rapport with pitchers before jumping into game action. Teams generally tend to be wary about drastic midseason shake-ups behind the plate, reasoning that it’s difficult for a new acquisition to learn pitcher tendencies in the midst of a pennant race. Houston skipper Dusty Baker, who encouraged ownership to kill the trade over the summer, told reporters this week he’d be much more interested in bringing Contreras in as a free agent over the offseason. To that end, Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer and was seemingly one of the favorites for his services, but it appears they’ll lose out on the bidding in the long run.

Contreras, it’s worth noting, fares well enough behind the plate in more measurable aspects. Statcast has pegged him as a roughly average pitch framer for the past three seasons, as he worked to overcome ghastly receiving marks from earlier in his career. Contreras boasts an excellent arm, having cut down 29.8% of attempted base-stealers in his career. That’s well north of this year’s 25% league average. Statcast credited him with the 11th-lowest pop time (average time to throw to second on a steal attempt) among 73 backstops with 10+ attempts in 2022.

St. Louis is clearly comfortable enough with Contreras’ overall defensive profile to make him their successor behind the plate to franchise icon Yadier Molina. They explored a number of trade and free agent possibilities, with reports tying them to the #2 free agent at the position (Christian Vázquez) and top trade candidates Sean Murphy and Danny Jansen. In the end, they have held off on dealing away young talent for a catcher and have gone to the top of the market in free agency. Contreras will step in as their #1 backstop, relegating Andrew Knizner to reserve duty and allowing the team to keep prospect Iván Herrera in Triple-A.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted he’d land a four-year, $84MM deal, with this $87.5MM deal now becoming one of the largest free agent contracts in franchise history. The Cardinals have only previously topped $80MM for a free agent on three occasions, adding Matt Holliday for $120MM and going right around $80MM for both Mike Leake and Dexter Fowler. As noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, this is the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent who hadn’t previously played for the team.

The Cardinals will also have to surrender a draft choice. Contreras declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs at the start of the offseason, tying him to draft compensation. St. Louis neither received revenue sharing payments nor surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022. They’re therefore subject to standard penalties for signing another team’s qualified free agent — the surrender of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space.

The Cubs, meanwhile, will recoup a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft. That typically checks in around 75th overall. It’ll be small consolation to a fanbase disappointed to see a fan favorite depart, particularly to join their most hated rival. Contreras’ departure has long seemed an inevitability given the team’s lack of desire at making a longer-term commitment. Chicago will move forward with Yan Gomes and potentially an outside acquisition behind the dish, the latest example of the team closing the book on its 2016 curse-breaking club. Starter Kyle Hendricks, who’s under contract for one more season, is the sole remaining player from that team.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Cardinals were closing in on a deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first floated the five-year structure. Jon Morosi of MLB Network first had the sides in agreement. Jesse Rogers of ESPN first had the $87.5MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Sean Murphy

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Athletics catcher Sean Murphy is among the most popular players on the trade market, due both to his general excellence as a well-rounded catcher and to the dearth of high-end catching talent in a market where several teams are looking for upgrades at the position. To this point, he’s been linked to the D-backs, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, Braves, Rays and Red Sox in the past three to four weeks. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adds the Giants to list of teams that have called Oakland regarding Murphy, though an upgrade at catcher isn’t currently atop San Francisco’s priority list as they still hope to reel in a top-of-the-market free agent such as Carlos Correa.

The Cardinals were considered one of Murphy’s most prominent suitors before yesterday’s five-year agreement with Willson Contreras, and it seems that Oakland’s sky-high asking price on Murphy prompted St. Louis to instead pivot to the free-agent market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the A’s were seeking controllable, MLB-ready players in return for Murphy, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shines some further light on the type of return Oakland is seeking. Per Goold, the Athletics’ ask in talks with the Cardinals included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Brendan Donovan, and a near-MLB pitching prospect such as Gordon Graceffo.

It’s a hefty asking price, to be sure, as both Nootbaar and Donovan burst onto the scene in 2022 and staked a claim to regular roles with the Cardinals. Nootbaar finished out the season with a .228/.340/.448 batting line (125 wRC+), and he was particularly effective in the season’s final two months, once he was finally able to settle into an everyday role (as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in September). Nootbaar made the most of his opportunity as the primary right fielder in St. Louis, slashing .246/.371/.492 with 10 homers, 12 doubles and three triples in his final 240 plate appearances. He’s controllable through 2027.

Donovan is similarly interesting, even though the manner in which he delivers value is completely different. Also 25, Donovan played all four infield positions and both outfield corners this season, generally delivering quality defense at each spot — hence this year’s Gold Glove Award. He batted .281/.394/.379, showing minimal power but also a keen feel for the strike zone, evidenced by a 12.8% walk rate and an excellent 15% strikeout rate. He’s controlled a year longer than Nootbaar, all the way through the 2028 season. As for Graceffo, he’s currently ranked as baseball’s No. 66 prospect at Baseball America, No. 78 at FanGraphs and No. 79 at MLB.com.

Suffice it to say, it’s a massive haul for the A’s to seek and a justifiable one for the Cardinals to walk away from, no matter how excellent Murphy is. Focusing in on the Cardinals aspect is generally a moot point now, though. With Contreras signing on through the 2027 season, St. Louis is no longer in the running.

Still, the asking price from one prominent suitor is instructive when trying to plot out what the A’s could seek from other clubs. Every valuation is different, of course, but teams looking into Murphy could very well need to part with multiple MLB-ready talents who have longer-reaching club control than the remaining three years the A’s hold over Murphy. General manager David Forst said this week that the A’s aren’t necessarily closed off to receiving lower-level players but stressed that adding players who have reached or could reach the Majors in 2023 — whether in a Murphy trade or other transactions — is at the “top of our to-do list” (link via Melissa Lockard of The Athletic).

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dansby Swanson

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The Twins recently chatted with Dansby Swanson via video conference, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. They’re one of a handful of teams in discussion with the longtime Brave, who’s one of the three top shortstops remaining in free agency.

Minnesota is one of a handful of teams that has been involved in the market. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports the Cubs, Cardinals and Red Sox have joined the Twins in showing significant interest this offseason (Twitter link). The incumbent Braves have also publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson.

There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in Swanson’s market, as he’s not the primary target of either Minnesota or Boston. The Twins continue to prioritize Carlos Correa, although there’s also a chance they’re outbid by a bigger spender. The Dodgers are reportedly uninterested in Correa, but the Giants loom as a major threat after missing out on Aaron Judge. San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity after Judge declined their offer in the $360MM range, and Correa has been reported as their favorite of the top-tier shortstops available. The Twins have been linked to both Bogaerts and now Swanson as potential fallback options in the event they lose the bidding for Correa.

Swanson’s surely a secondary option for the Red Sox as well. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has called Bogaerts their top priority on a number of occasions, and reports this morning suggested there was growing momentum in talks between the Sox and their longtime shortstop. So long as no deal is in place, the Red Sox are a viable fit for Swanson. If they do retain Bogaerts, he’d pair with Trevor Story in the middle infield and almost certainly rule out a Swanson pickup.

It looks unlikely the Cardinals will remain in the top of the shortstop market moving forward. St. Louis agreed to terms with top free agent backstop Willson Contreras this morning. That obviously doesn’t present a positional logjam for Swanson, but it adds a reported five-year, $87.5MM contract to the books. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested earlier this week the Cards were unlikely to pursue the top shortstops unless they acquired their catcher more affordably via trade. A significant free agent deal for Contreras seems likely to leave the Cards to rely on Tommy Edman and some combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman up the middle.

The Cubs are a stronger fit for Swanson. They’re not attempting to retain an in-house free agent shortstop as Minnesota and Boston are. Chicago has Nico Hoerner as a franchise building block, but he’s already expressed a willingness to kick over to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. The Cubs have already met with each of Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson and could make sense for any of that trio. Yet with the strong interest Correa and Bogaerts are seemingly drawing from other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this afternoon the Cubs view Swanson as a more realistic target.

Swanson’s going to command a significant deal in his own right, of course. He won the NL Gold Glove award at shortstop in 2022, and he’s coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career. The 28-year-old (29 in February) hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs while suiting up in all 162 games. He made the no-brainer decision to decline a qualifying offer, meaning any signing team would have to forfeit a draft choice to bring him in. MLBTR predicted Swanson to land a seven-year, $154MM deal at the opening of the offseason.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

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