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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
  • Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
  • Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.

Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.

Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.

The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).

It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.

The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.

They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.

That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.

St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.

There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.

If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.

There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.

That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.

The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.

Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.

St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.

There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.

There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.

Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.

At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.

There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.

That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.

Cardinals Sign GM Michael Girsch To Multi-Year Extension

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The Cardinals recently signed general manager Michael Girsch to a multi-year contract extension, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Assistant GM/scouting director Randy Flores also just signed a new multi-year deal, Goold reports, keeping both in the organization beyond 2022.

Both Girsch and Flores had been on expiring deals, so it’s no surprise St. Louis struck to keep each in the fold at this time. Girsch has been in the organization since 2006, working up to AGM by 2011. The Cards promoted him to general manager in 2017, a move made in conjunction with bumping Mozeliak from GM to president of baseball ops. That promotion came with a new contract that kept Girsch in St. Louis through 2020, and he subsequently signed a two-year extension before today’s multi-year pact. It isn’t clear how long the current arrangement runs, but it’ll at least keep Girsch around through 2024.

Girsch has worked as Mozeliak’s top lieutenant for some time, and that arrangement will continue next year and beyond. Mozeliak has final say in baseball operations, but Girsch was sufficiently happy with his role in St. Louis he declined an opportunity to pursue the Mets’ front office vacancy (a position that would’ve come with a chance to lead baseball operations) last offseason. The Notre Dame graduate is clearly content to continue with underneath Mozeliak in the Cardinals’ front office hierarchy. He’ll try to help St. Louis to a fifth consecutive playoff berth this offseason.

Flores, a former big league reliever, was hired as amateur scouting director in August 2015. He began overseeing the team’s drafts the following season, a role he’s now held for seven years. Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan are among St. Louis draftees of the Flores era who played key roles on this year’s NL Central-winning club, and 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the top few minor league talents in the game. The 47-year-old Flores earned a bump to assistant GM (one of three individuals to hold that title within the Cards’ front office) over the 2018-19 offseason.

Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw

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Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).  Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.

The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series.  Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances.  After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.

More from around baseball…

  • General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers.  Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position.  Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
  • The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency.  In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers.  “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.

Bruce Sutter Passes Away

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The Cardinals announced that Hall of Fame pitcher and World Series champion Bruce Sutter has passed away. He was 69 years old.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement in regards to Sutter’s passing: “I am deeply saddened by the news of the passing of Bruce Sutter, whose career was an incredible baseball success story. Bruce ascended from being a nondrafted free agent to the heights of Baseball by pioneering the split-fingered fastball.  That pitch not only led him to the Major Leagues, but also made him a Cy Young Award winner with the Cubs and a World Series Champion with the 1982 Cardinals.  Bruce was the first pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame without starting a game, and he was one of the key figures who foreshadowed how the use of relievers would evolve. Bruce will be remembered as one of the best pitchers in the histories of two of our most historic franchises.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my condolences to Bruce’s family, his friends and his fans in Chicago, St. Louis, Atlanta and throughout our game.”

Sutter was initially drafted by the Washington Senators in 1970 but decided to attend Old Dominion University instead. The next year, as Manfred mentioned, Sutter signed with the Cubs as a nondrafted free agent. He underwent surgery in the minors but found his pitches to be less effective after returning to action. He started working on a splitter to improve his repertoire, a pitch that would come to define his career.

He made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 1976. He was an effective reliever right away, throwing 83 1/3 innings over 52 appearances, registering a 2.70 ERA and notching 10 saves. He took a step forward the next year, throwing 107 1/3 innings in 62 games with a 1.34 ERA and 31 saves. He made the All-Star team that year, the first of six teams he would eventually make in his career.

Sutter continued along in that fashion for the next few seasons, racking up saves while pitching multi-inning outings. In 1979, he was given the Cy Young award for his efforts, a rare feat for a relief pitcher. He saved 37 games that year while recording a 2.22 ERA in 101 1/3 innings.

He was traded from the Cubs to the Cardinals prior to the 1981 campaign and would spend four seasons in St. Louis, largely continuing with the same level of excellence he had established in Chicago. 1982 was certainly a season to remember for both Sutter and the Cards. The club went 92-70 during the regular season, winning the NL East on the back of a 36-save season from Sutter. They swept the Braves 3-0 in the NLCS, with Sutter earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 3. They then faced off against the Brewers in the World Series and eventually emerged victorious in seven games, with Sutter winning Game 2 and then saving Game 3 and Game 7. (Video of Sutter recording the final out via MLB.com’s YouTube page.)

Sutter reached free agency and signed with Atlanta prior to the 1985 season, though his effectiveness started to wane as he got into his 30s. He posted an ERA above 4.00 in his first two years in Atlanta, missed the 1987 season entirely due to shoulder surgery, before returning in 1988 to post a 4.76 ERA in what would be his final season.

He wrapped up his MLB career with exactly 300 saves, which was the third-most in history at that time, behind only Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage. He also collected 68 victories while posting a 2.83 ERA in a career that included 1042 1/3 innings. He made six All-Star teams, won a Cy Young award and a World Series title. After lingering on the Hall of Fame ballot for over a decade, Sutter was eventually elected in 2006, his 13th year on the ballot.

MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates who are mourning him today.

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Jackson, Zuber

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright had a 3.09 ERA through the end of August this year but then posted a 7.22 mark over the final few weeks of the season. Given that he turned 41 years old in between those two samples, some might have wondered if the veteran had merely run out of gas.

However, that wasn’t actually the case, at least according to the man himself. Wainwright logged into Twitter yesterday, acknowledging that he didn’t perform up to his own standards down the stretch and attempting to offer an explanation. The way he tells it, he was hit on the knee by a comebacker in his August 28 start against Atlanta. This affected the length of his stride, which he didn’t notice for some time, leading to domino effects in his delivery. He believes that the issues were eventually fixed but that the season ended before he got a chance to get back into proper form.

Despite the poor finish, Wainwright still posted a 3.71 ERA in 2022, making 32 starts and throwing 191 2/3 innings. Given that his Cardinal teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols already announced their intention to retire after this year, many have wondered if Wainwright would join them in heading into the sunset. But he’s shown he can still be effective at the big league level and could surely get another shot in 2023 if he wants one. If he has made a decision in that regard, he hasn’t yet gone public with it.

Wainwright made his MLB debut with the Cards in 2005 and has been with them his entire big league career. In 2013, he and the club signed a five-year extension that went through the 2018 campaign. Since then, he and the team have effectively gone year to year, signing one-year deals for the past four seasons. He made $17.5MM this year on the heels of an excellent 2021 campaign that he didn’t quite match. He might have to settle for a slight pay cut to return next year, though he and the club have always been able to work out deals that work for both sides.

Jose Quintana is also heading for free agency, leaving the Cards with an on-paper rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. Matz and Flaherty both had injury-plagued seasons and Hudson struggled enough that he got optioned to the minors down the stretch. Given those question marks, reuniting for another spin with Wainwright would make sense for the team, as long as that’s something he wants.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Braves right-hander Luke Jackson has missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He seems to be on track for a return at some point next year, as the hurler himself took to Twitter to announce that he has started throwing. Now 31, Jackson had a tremendous breakout season in 2021. He threw 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, much better than his 4.24 career mark. There might have been a bit of good luck in there, as opponents hit just .253 on balls in play against Jackson after posting marks at .311 or above in each of the previous five seasons. Nonetheless, he did post strong ground ball and strikeout rates of 52.5% and 26.8%, respectively, alongside a high walk rate of 11.1%. This was his final year of club control, meaning he’ll be heading into the open market in a few weeks. Given his ongoing recovery, he will likely have to hold a showcase for teams at some point in order to showcase his readiness for 2023.
  • Royals righty Tyler Zuber missed the entirety of the 2022 season, landing on the IL in March due to a shoulder impingement and never returning. He appears to be healthy again after tweeting video of himself throwing yesterday. The 27-year-old has yet to find success at the big league level, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 49 1/3 career innings, though he’s shown more potential in the minors. In 28 2/3 frames at Triple-A in 2021, he posted a 2.83 ERA along with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. That also came with a concerning 13.8% walk rate, though he showed an ability to be effective despite that. By sitting on the 60-day IL all season, he’s earned a full year of MLB service time in 2022, though he still won’t reach arbitration eligibility this winter.

Cardinals Notes: Wainwright, Arenado, Molina, Pujols

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Following yesterday’s 0-2 loss to the Phillies, the Cardinals’ magical 2022 season has drawn to a close. After an above-average first half going 50-44, the Cardinals moved into a higher gear, winning 43 of their final 68 games (.632 win percentage) to take the NL Central with authority. Pivoting towards the 2023 season, the Cardinals have two key players with decisions to make, and two players who are expected to formally announce their retirements.

One of the most important free agents for the Cardinals is 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who didn’t appear during the Cardinal’s Wild Card series. Wainwright, a rotation stalwart for the Cardinals since 2007, signed a 1-year, $17.5MM extension for the 2022 season on the heels of a strong 2020 and 2021 season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 272 innings. He followed those strong numbers in 2022 with a 3.71 ERA in 191 2/3 innings, following his trademark of limiting hard contact (87.8 MPH average exit velocity, 36.6 HardHit%). However, he was hit hard over his last five starts, giving up 35 hits and 19 runs over his last 23 2/3 innings.

Wainwright has yet to officially announce whether he will return for the 2023 season, but hinted that he has decided on his status, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Regardless, Wainwright is expected to release something soon, with the veteran saying postgame that “we should know pretty soon if something happens … if not, then it’s been a good run.” The 17-year veteran added that he did not “like not pitching in a playoff season,” before coyly saying that fans could take the statement one of two ways, “as it’s been a good run” or “as a motivation to never let that happen again,” per Goold.

The Cardinals’ other high-profile free agent Nolan Arenado is technically under contract through the 2027 season; however, he can opt out this offseason. Acquired from the Rockies in February 2021, Arenado has posted back-to-back All-Star seasons with the Cardinals, slashing a combined .273/.335/.513 while playing superb defense at the hot corner (30 Outs Above Average). Arenado’s 2022 season has been particularly strong, batting .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and 15 Outs Above Average.

Arenado has $144MM and five years remaining on his current contract, but he would be the clear-cut top third basemen on the free agent market. For his part, Arenado has previously stated that he’s “not opting out” and that he “will be coming back,” per Goold. He followed up these comments after yesterday’s game saying, “I love it here. I love the guys. I just feel like I fit well with this orgnaization.” Nevertheless, the seven-time All-Star will be 37 at the end of his current contract and may opt to find a longer agreement.

Elsewhere on the Cardinals, 19-year veteran Yadier Molina and 22-year veteran Albert Pujols are set to retire with the close of the 2022 season. Both legends in Cardinals’ lore, the duo won World Series titles with the Cardinals in 2006 and 2011, among numerous other awards throughout their careers. In a fitting moment, both players laced singles in their final at-bats at Busch Stadium.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Adames, Pirates, Davis

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Ryan Helsley won’t pitch in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series today, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).  The decision is related to workload rather than a physical setback, as while Helsley left yesterday’s game with numbness in his right fingers.  The issue contributed to a nightmarish breakdown, as Helsley was charged with four of the six runs the Cards surrendered in the ninth inning of the 6-3 loss to the Phillies.

An MRI didn’t reveal any damage, and Helsley told Jones and other media members that he’ll try to stimulate more blood flow in his fingers via laser therapy.  The right-hander said he doesn’t have much feel (particularly on breaking pitches) as the ball is leaving his hand.  With this is mind, it’s fair to consider Helsley as a question mark for Game 3, if St. Louis is able to extend the series tonight.

Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • “I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career,” Willy Adames told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters about his time with the Brewers.  Adames is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and given the Brewers’ payroll limitations, it remain to be seen how many (if any) of such notables as Adames, Corbin Burnes, or Brandon Woodruff could be possible extension candidates.  “At the end of the day, [the Brewers] have to put everything together and see if we can work something out.  Hopefully we can, and we can make it happen.  But I’m always willing to hear what they have to say,” Adames said.  Possibly impacted by a high ankle sprain that sidelined him in May and early June, Adames hit .238/.298/.458 over 617 plate appearances, though that still translated to a 109 wRC+, and the shortstop also hit 31 homers.
  • Pirates manager Derek Shelton cited first base and catcher as “areas of need” in the offseason, telling Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and other reporters that “I do think we’ll continue to look to solidify those positions….We’re just going to have to see what’s available, how we acquire guys to fill that.”  Roberto Perez may be a candidate to be re-signed, though the veteran backstop played only 21 games before undergoing hamstring surgery, and Perez was one of a whopping eight catchers who saw time behind the plate for the Pirates in 2022.  First base was also a revolving door with 10 players getting time at the cold corner, and Michael Chavis (who had the bulk of the playing time) was already outrighted off the active roster, with Chavis electing free agency.  As always, it’s hard to imagine the Pirates spending big on upgrades at either position, as the team continues to rebuild.
  • Brennen Davis was limited to 53 games in 2022 due to back surgery, and the star Cubs prospect reflected on his difficult year and somewhat unusual injury with The Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee.  Initially diagnosed as a herniated disc, Davis’ issue was actually a vascular malformation that was causing pain due to pressure on his sciatic nerve.  While it may take time for Davis to fully recover his power stroke, both the outfielder and Triple-A hitting coach Desi Wilson feel the situation might actually help Davis’ overall hitting approach.  “Having to grind for my hits. I can’t just go out there and muscle one out,” Davis said.  “I have to square baseballs up and hit them the right way, with true backspin and stuff like that, and pick pitches that I can do damage on.”  Davis has returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, and he is hopeful of making his MLB debut in 2023 — since Davis had already hit well during a brief Triple-A stint in 2021, he likely would’ve already appeared in the majors this year had he stayed healthy.

Cardinals Announce Wild Card Roster

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The end of an era is drawing near in St. Louis, and as the Cardinals hope to send at least two franchise icons off on the highest note possible, they’ve formally set their roster for their best-of-three Wild Card series against the Phillies. Here’s how the roster will look as Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols suit up for the final postseason run of their illustrious careers…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The Cardinals are without outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who’s been out since mid-September owing to a hamstring strain. He’s been rehabbing and progressing toward a return, and Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that O’Neill will actually plan in this year’s Arizona Fall League to continue rehabbing with an eye toward a hopeful return during the NLDS — assuming the Cardinals advance beyond the first round of play.

All eyes this series will be on Pujols, Molina and Wainwright — a trio of St. Louis icons who’ll hope to add one final World Series ring to their likely Hall of Fame resumes. Molina and Pujols have already announced their intention to retire at season’s end. Wainwright could well give it one more go but has kept his own plans close to the vest.

Regardless, it’s been a remarkable scene for Cardinals fans throughout the season, watching three beloved players reprise their halcyon days from more than a decade ago as they reunited to capture the NL Central crown. Along the way, Pujols rode a late hot streak for the ages into the rarefied air of the 700 home run club, while Molina and Wainwright established a new Major League record for most starts made by a battery. All the while, the Cards received MVP-level play from their infield corners and saw rookies like Nootbaar and Donovan provide a glimpse of what’s to come in the years ahead.

Cardinals Sign Giovanny Gallegos To Extension

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OCTOBER 4: It’s an $11MM guarantee, the Associated Press reports. Gallegos receives a $500K signing bonus, followed by successive salaries of $4.5MM and $5.5MM for his final seasons of arbitration eligibility. There’s a $500K buyout on the 2025 option, which has a base value of $6.5MM. The option price can escalate by as much as $3.5MM depending on his games finished tally during the 2024 campaign. It’d increase $500K apiece at 20, 26 and 31 games finished and would add an extra $1MM at each of 36 and 41 games.

OCTOBER 3: The Cardinals announced that they have signed right-hander Giovanny Gallegos to a two-year extension with a club option for 2025. Gallegos had two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, with this deal buying out those years and potentially one free agent year as well.

Gallegos, 31, came over to St. Louis alongside Chasen Shreve in the July 2018 trade that sent Luke Voit to the Yankees. He got a very brief stint with the Cards in the months after that trade, throwing 1 1/3 innings over two appearances. But in the four seasons since then, he has established himself as a mainstay of the club’s relief corps.

From 2019 to 2021, he made 155 appearances and threw 169 1/3 innings. In that time, he registered a 2.76 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 32.4% and 6.2%, respectively. He earned his way into high leverage situations in that time, notching 19 saves and 44 holds in that period.

He reached arbitration for the first time after last season, with he and the club agreeing to a $2.41MM salary for 2022. Since signing that deal, he’s been putting up very similar results to what he had done in the previous three campaigns. He has a 2.91 ERA in 58 2/3 innings with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, earning another 14 saves and another 12 holds.

Based on his fourth straight season of strong performance, Gallegos would have been due an arbitration raise for 2023 and likely another for 2024, as long as he stayed healthy. Of course, with a pitcher, the health factor could always change the calculus in a hurry. Instead, Gallegos will have the security of knowing his earnings for the next two seasons are locked in. For giving Gallegos that guarantee, the Cards will have the ability to secure his services for an extra season.

“So excited,” Gallegos tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I feel so happy. I don’t have the word exactly for how I’m feeling. Right now, I’ve got an extension with the team. My confidence is 100%, 200%.” Goold also spoke to John Mozeliak, the club’s president of baseball operations. “He really wanted to stay and be a part of the St. Louis Cardinals moving forward,” Mozeliak says. “I think it really was a win-win for both parties. This gives him a little peace of mind as well.”

Central Notes: Cabrera, Hicks, Alzolay

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Tigers veteran Miguel Cabrera will turn 40 years old in April, shortly after beginning the final guaranteed season of the mega extension he signed back in 2014. Though he’s not quite the hitter he was back then, he’s still going to be a part of Detroit’s plans next season. “We expect Miggy to be here,” manager A.J. Hinch tells Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “We expect him to do his part in the offseason to prepare himself to be healthy and be productive and be the icon that he is.”

As noted by McCosky, Cabrera’s 2022 got off to a nice start, as he kept his batting average above .300 into July. However, he has slumped badly since then while dealing with various nagging injuries, currently sitting on a batting line of .251/.299/.315 for the year. That production amounts to a wRC+ of 76, or 24% below league average, which is well below Cabrera’s previous low of 92 from 2017.

Going into the season, it seemed as though Cabrera was on the verge of being nudged out of the club’s plans, as they spent aggressively in the offseason to try to compete in 2022. With the promotion of first base prospect Spencer Torkelson, it was fair to wonder if an awkward situation was approaching with the club trying to compete and Miggy standing in the way. Instead, Torkelson and the Tigers both fell way shy of expectations, with the youngster hitting just .197/.281/.301 so far this year and club sporting a record of 64-93.

The fact that Cabrera is still owed $32MM next year doesn’t mean he is immune from being cut from the team if he continues to underperform. Just last year, the Angels designated Albert Pujols for assignment in May while he was playing out the final year of his contract at a $30MM salary. Both Hinch and new president of baseball operations Scott Harris voiced their support for Cabrera being a part of the 2023 club, though how much of a role he gets to play is likely to be determined.

Some more notes from the Central divisions…

  • The Cardinals are planning to reinstate right-hander Jordan Hicks from the injured list for their final regular season series, which begins tomorrow in Pittsburgh, according to MLB.com. Hicks went on the IL on September 17, retroactive to September 15, due to right arm fatigue. He has long tantalized fans with his triple-digit velocity but also been frequently set back by command issues and injuries. This season, he’s made 34 appearances and has a 4.92 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 57.5% ground ball rate but a 13.6% walk rate. The Cards have already clinched the NL Central and can use their final games to assess the condition of Hicks’s arm before they begin a series against whichever team winds up in the final Wild Card spot.
  • Cubs right-hander Adbert Alzolay seemed to be a potential rotation building block last year, appearing in 26 games with 21 of those being starts, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA. However, this year, a shoulder strain landed him on the injured list to begin the season and he only made his season debut a couple of weeks ago. This mostly lost season has resulted in several pitchers surpassing him on the depth chart and perhaps leading to a move to the bullpen. Alzolay discussed this possibility with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic and seems fine with it. “If my role is best out of the bullpen, being a long guy, being a guy that can throw in the eighth or close a game or whatever, I feel like I have the weapons to do that,” Alzolay says. “You won’t have me every five days there, but you can have me every two or three days. I can go and throw three or four innings, or I can go and throw one inning late in the game. So I feel like there are a lot more options there, and then that allows the team to go and be aggressive during the offseason.” The Cubs’ 2023 rotation will likely consist of Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele, with Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson and Caleb Kilian having put themselves into consideration to varying degrees. With all of those options, and perhaps some offseason additions, it makes sense for Alzolay and the team to consider new ways for him to be a contributing member of the staff.
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