Astros, Rays Have Discussed Shane Baz
The Astros and Rays have had conversations involving Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz, report Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is close to fruition, nor is it a lock that the Rays trade him at all. Baz is presumably one of a number of targets for a Houston team that is trying to add a starter — ideally via trade, given their payroll constraints.
Baz, 26, would fit the bill from an affordability perspective. He’s in his second of four trips through the arbitration process, but early-career injuries kept him from accruing significant earnings in year one. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $3.1MM sum next season, and he’s under club control through 2028.
A first-round pick out of high school by the Pirates in 2017, Baz was traded to Tampa Bay in the lopsided Chris Archer deal a year later. The 6’3″ righty developed into one of the sport’s top pitching prospects but has yet to reach the mid-rotation or better ceiling for which he was lauded. He dealt with multiple elbow issues over the early part of his MLB career. Those culminated in September 2022 Tommy John surgery. He missed the following season and spent some time in Triple-A in ’24, so he didn’t return to Kevin Cash’s rotation until around the All-Star Break that year.
Baz turned in a 3.06 earned run average across 14 starts down the stretch. That was aided by a .229 average on balls in play that papered over league average strikeout and walk numbers. The results swung in the opposite direction this year. Baz held a rotation spot all season and made 31 starts, but he surrendered 4.87 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate actually climbed three percentage points to a solid 24.8% clip, but a spike in the BABIP and an uptick in home runs led to much worse overall results.
Despite the uneven year, Baz would have a lot of trade value. Controllable starting pitching is very difficult to acquire. That’s especially true when it’s a former top prospect who averages 97 MPH on his fastball. Baz has a four-pitch mix and did a solid job handling left-handed hitters. His command isn’t elite but close enough to league average to stick as a starter. He has so far been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. Baz allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.
Tampa Bay is under no pressure to trade Baz, but they tend to be open to conversations on almost anyone on the roster. There’d be some parallels to last summer’s deadline deal in which they shipped Taj Bradley to Minnesota (though he’d fallen far enough in their view that they’d optioned him to Triple-A shortly before trading him). They swapped Bradley for a controllable high-leverage reliever in Griffin Jax and would presumably want to build a Baz return mostly around MLB pieces as well.
The Astros have one of the weakest farm systems in the game. Speaking broadly about the team’s trade conversations, general manager Dana Brown acknowledged to The Athletic that opposing clubs have focused more on their big league roster. Center fielder Jake Meyers is reportedly available in talks for a starter.
While there’s no firm indication that Meyers is a target for the Rays specifically, he’d make sense given their outfield questions. Tampa Bay did sign Cedric Mullins to a one-year deal last week, but he could factor into an uncertain corner outfield mix if the Rays acquired a superior defender in Meyers. It’s unlikely that Tampa Bay would agree to a one-for-one swap given the scarcity of starting pitching, however. Rome and Rosenthal report that the Rays like High-A pitching prospect Anderson Brito, who could be a secondary piece in a larger deal.
The Astros are expected to lose Framber Valdez, leaving them with plenty of questions behind ace Hunter Brown. They’ll slot Cristian Javier in the mix and have the likes of Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson and Lance McCullers Jr. competing for spots. It’s not nearly deep enough for a team that intends to compete for the AL West title.
Houston has been linked to some free agent possibilities (Ranger Suárez, most notably). They’re reportedly reluctant to surpass the $244MM luxury tax line, though, and RosterResource has them less than $25MM from the threshold. They could also use a left-handed hitting utility infielder and a backup catcher, and they’ll want to keep some payroll space aside for midseason additions. That might inhibit their ability to add a mid-rotation arm in free agency. Relatedly, Brown told reporters (including Rome) this evening that the club would prefer not to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer and would cost them draft compensation. That lists includes Suárez, Michael King and Zac Gallen.
Rays Interested In Zack Littell
The Rays are known to be looking to add some veteran depth to their rotation, and such former Tampa players as Zach Eflin and Adrian Houser are known to be on the team’s radar. Yet another ex-Ray is also being eyed for a reunion, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Zack Littell is also drawing interest from the club.
Littell first arrived in Tampa in May 2023, after the Rays claimed the right-hander off waivers from the Red Sox. At the time, Littell had started only four of his 147 career games in parts of six Major League seasons, and had delivered inconsistent results as a reliever. However, in yet another win for the Rays’ excellent pitching development staff, Littell went from a multi-inning reliever to a proper starter by season’s end, and he then became a rotation staple over the next two seasons.
Over 376 2/3 innings in a Tampa Bay uniform, Littell posted a 3.68 ERA, 19.39% strikeout rate, and a superb 3.92% walk rate. Littell has had trouble keeping the ball in the park and he doesn’t miss many bats, but his elite control and durability made his transition to the rotation a very successful one. With the Rays falling out of contention at the deadline, Littell was dealt to the Reds as part of a three-team trade that also involved the Dodgers, and Littell had a 4.39 ERA over 53 1/3 innings to help Cincinnati reach the playoffs.
Only ten pitchers in all of baseball topped Littell’s 186 2/3 innings pitched in 2025. These ability to eat innings would be a major help to any rotation, but especially a Tampa Bay staff that has a few question marks behind Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. Shane Baz was only so-so in his first full MLB season, Ian Seymour looked good as a rookie but has only 57 big league innings under his belt, and Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched in over two years due to injury. Topkin’s piece includes the positive note that McClanahan is having “a somewhat normal offseason” throwing progression as he recovers from the nerve issue that sidelined him for all of 2025, and the next checkpoint will come when McClanahan starts throwing off a mound in mid-January.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Littell 35th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected the righty for a two-year, $24MM contract. A three-year deal isn’t out of the question since Littell is entering his age-30 season and there’s plenty of value in a durable arm who can reliably cover innings, yet in terms of average annual value, Littell’s asking price should remain within the Rays’ limited spending range.
In comparison to the other known pitching targets, Littell will cost more than Eflin or Houser, but also brings more to the table in terms of reliability. This could make the front office more willing to make what counts as a significant financial plunge for the Rays, though more money could be freed up by trading other players off the current roster.
Red Sox, Rays, Tigers Among Teams To “Check In” On Ketel Marte
The Red Sox, Rays, and Tigers are among the teams to have checked in with the Diamondbacks regarding star second baseman Ketel Marte, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning. Reporting last month indicated that at least seven teams had inquired after Marte with Arizona, and this trio of names joins the Phillies and Blue Jays as known teams with interest in Marte’s services. None of this should be taken as an indication that a trade is necessarily close or expected; D-backs GM Mike Hazen emphasized at the outset of the offseason that a trade of Marte was “mostly unlikely.”
Marte, 32, is a three-time All-Star who was an MVP finalist just last year. Easily one of the best offensive infield talents in the game at the moment, Marte is slashing .283/.368/.519 (140 wRC+) over the past three years with 15.3 fWAR. That’s good for he ninth-best wRC+ and 12th-highest fWAR total of any position player over the stretch, and his 145 wRC+ in 126 games this year led all infielders. It’s easy to see, then, why so many teams would be interested in the star’s services if the Diamondbacks were to decide to make him available. That’s especially true given that he remains an above-average defender at second base with +10 Outs Above Average at the position over the past three years.
That might make it hard to imagine why the Diamondbacks would even consider dealing one of their franchise’s biggest stars, but Arizona will need to re-evaluate much of its future after missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and falling to fourth in the NL West this past year despite record-setting payroll numbers for the franchise. The Diamondbacks haven’t been shy about the idea that their current spending isn’t sustainable, and getting the $101MM owed to Marte over the next five years off the books would surely help pay for players like Corbin Carroll and Corbin Burnes who are already on longer deals themselves.
In addition to potential financial concerns, the Diamondbacks clearly need to bolster a rotation that will not only be without Burnes for most (if not all) of 2026 as he rehabs Tommy John surgery, but also saw Zac Gallen head into free agency this winter and lost Merrill Kelly in a trade with the Rangers over the summer. Even with his nine-figure contract, Marte would surely bring back a haul of pitching talent if traded, leaving Arizona in a position where they at least have to consider offers from clubs loaded with young talent to offer.
All three of the clubs mentioned by Nightengale certainly fit that description. The Red Sox are overflowing with controllable starting pitching talent at this point. After adding Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to a rotation that already included Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Patrick Sandoval this winter, Boston’s rotation mix appears to be more or less set headed into 2026. That leaves players like Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison, Hunter Dobbins, and Kutter Crawford without clear paths to regular starts.
While some of those pieces will surely be kept around as depth and protection against injury, the team could certainly afford to part ways with some of that pitching talent in order to bring in a player of Marte’s caliber. That could be especially appealing for Boston given reports that the club wants to add multiple big bats to the lineup this winter but may not have the financial flexibility to do so through the free agent market. In addition, the Sox could also a young position player to help replace Marte in Arizona’s lineup such as Triston Casas and Kristian Campbell.
Turning to the Rays, they’d be a surprising fit for Marte’s services to say the least. The team’s financial flexibility is said to be very limited this winter, as is typically the case for a team that routinely runs a payroll below $100MM. That led the club to decline their one-year option on righty Pete Fairbanks and even is spurring some rumors about the possibility of a Brandon Lowe trade. With that being said, however, a fit isn’t completely impossible to imagine. The Rays have always operated in creative and unconventional ways, after all, and replacing Lowe with Marte would only add $4MM to the team’s budget for this year due to the structure of Marte’s contract.
That could allow the Rays to add a major offensive upgrade for a year or two before looking to flip the veteran to another club when his contract gets more expensive in later seasons. It wouldn’t be the first time the Rays have weighed the possibility of adding a star-caliber player, as they pursued Freddie Freeman in free agency and considered attempting to pull off a Shohei Ohtani trade at the 2023 trade deadline. Of course, that was under Stu Sternberg’s ownership, and how exactly Patrick Zalupski will differ from his predecessor on these matters is yet to be seen. The biggest question regarding a possible Marte pursuit from the Rays mostly has to do with what they could offer in return; young starters like Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot would certainly be enticing, but both figure to be key pieces of a somewhat depleted Rays rotation in 2026.
As for the Tigers, the club figures to be hungry to improve in what could be Tarik Skubal‘s final year with the organization. Detroit has one of the league’s very best farm systems, and while their best prospects lean more towards the positional side of things, a young pitcher like Troy Melton would surely have plenty of appeal for the Diamondbacks if surrounded by other top talent. Marte’s fit with the Tigers might be a bit complicated in 2026 given that Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer and will return to the keystone next year, but Detroit has shown a willingness to get creative with its players’ positions in the past. It’s also worth noting that, while Marte has played second base exclusively in recent years, he does have nearly 1300 innings under his belt in center field, which saw Detroit rely on players like Parker Meadows and Javier Baez in 2025.
Rays Sign Cedric Mullins To One-Year Deal
December 6: The team has officially announced the signing. Right-hander Yoniel Curet was designated for assignment to make room for Mullins on the 40-man. Mullins’ one-year deal also includes a mutual option for 2027. Topkin reported the option is for $10MM, with a $500K buyout.
December 3: The Rays and outfielder Cedric Mullins are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s worth $7MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Mullins is represented by Cope Sports Management. The Rays have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move for this Mullins deal to become official.
Mullins and the Rays will both be hoping that he can engineer a bounceback season in 2026. Now 31, he has spent the past few seasons primarily with the Orioles, serving as a well-rounded center fielder capable of providing a bit of pop, some speed and quality defense. However, 2025 was his worst season since he became a full-time major leaguer.
Back in 2021, he had a tremendous breakout year. He hit 30 home runs, stole 30 bases and ran the ball down in the outfield. He slashed .291/.360/.518 for a 136 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with six wins above replacement.
That season now looks like an outlier. His subsequent campaigns haven’t been quite as good but he’s still been a very useful well-rounded contributor. The past four seasons have seen Mullins finish with a home run tally between 15 and 18, barely half of his 2021 total but still nothing to sneeze at. His stolen base numbers have oscillated but stayed near the 30ish range. He only swiped 19 in 2023 but he was limited to 116 games that year.
From 2022 to 2024, even with the diminished power, he slashed .244/.311/.407 for a 103 wRC+. He stole 85 bases and mostly got good review for his glovework. He tallied 7.7 fWAR, about two to three wins per season.
He got out to a hot start at the plate in 2025. At the end of April, he had six home runs, a .278/.412/.515 line and 163 wRC+. With free agency just a few months away, he seemed to have a shot at a nine-figure deal. Unfortunately, he went cold after that and never really recovered. From May 1st to the end of the season, he put up a dismal .198/.263/.355 line. A deadline deal to the Mets didn’t help get him back on track.
Ultimately, his full 2025 line of .216/.299/.391 isn’t too bad. The 94 wRC+ indicates he was only 6% below league average, but it’s obviously not ideal for a free agent to hit the open market riding a five-month slump.
His glovework is also arguably less stable now, perhaps not shocking for a guy who is now 31 years old. Outs Above Average still considers him an above average fielder but by a smaller margin now. He was credited with at least 10 OAA in both 2021 and 2022 but was below five in each of the two most recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved ranked him as a strong defender a few years ago but tagged him with a -4 grade in 2024 and -14 in 2025, dropping him to -11 DRS for his career.
The combination of trends left Mullins with diminished earning power but he’s a sensible flier for the Rays to take. They used a mishmash of different guys in their outfield group in 2025. Each of Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and Kameron Misner took between 216 and 429 plate appearances as an outfielder for Tampa this year, with others appearing for smaller samples as well. None of those five guys had even league average offense this year. Misner and Morel were designated for assignment at the end of the season. Misner was traded to the Royals. Morel was non-tendered and is now a free agent. The Rays recently brought in another outfielder by signing Jake Fraley.
Last month, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander admitted that upgrading the outfield would be a target for this offseason. However, spending big has never really been the club’s style. That’s presumably extra true after a season in which they had to move to a minor league park, which led to extra expenses and then smaller crowds. The Rays decided to pass on picking up an $11MM club option for Pete Fairbanks, despite a fairly affordable $10MM price difference between that option and the $1MM buyout.
The Rays wouldn’t be serious contenders for signing someone like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. Even if they were willing to splurge on a mid-market free agent, this year doesn’t really have any outfielders who fit the description. Trent Grisham would have been in there but he accepted a qualifying offer from the Yankees. That left the Rays with the trade market and then free agents like Mullins, Harrison Bader, Mike Yastrzemski and others.
RosterResource currently estimates the Rays for a $77MM payroll in 2026, before factoring in Mullins. They finished 2025 at $88MM. It’s unknown how much they plan to spend next year but they will be pretty close to last year’s outlay once Mullins is officially on the books.
Presumably, Mullins will be penciled in as the everyday center fielder as the Rays hope he finds a way to return to form. Their remaining outfielders can battle over the playing time in the corners, with Mullins perhaps acting as a veteran mentor for them.
Photos courtesy of Jeff Hanisch, Mitch Stringer, Imagn Images
St. Petersburg Officials Optimistic About Tropicana Field Being Ready For Opening Day
Work continues to repair the hurricane damage that rendered Tropicana Field unplayable in 2025. St. Petersburg officials updated the local media on the construction efforts on Wednesday, expressing optimism that everything will be completed by Opening Day.
“At this moment in time, we have no concern about being ready for opening day April 6. And we hope we keep it that way,” city administrator Beth Herendeen told reporters (including Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times and Kristie Ackert of The Associated Press). The city finished reinstalling roof panels last month and is now focused on interior work. That includes repairs to the clubhouses, seating areas, and improvements to the video board.
There’ll also be a new artificial turf. Ackert writes that work on the playing surface could begin in January, while Topkin notes that the team is hopeful that’ll be complete by the end of Spring Training. That’d enable them to familiarize themselves with the turf before regular season games get underway. The Rays begin the season with road series in St. Louis, Milwaukee and Minnesota. They’re set to host the Cubs and Yankees from April 6-12 in their first homestand.
The Rays played the 2025 season at Tampa’s George M. Steinbrenner Field. That’s an outdoor stadium with a capacity around 11,000. While the Trop has been frequently maligned in comparison to other MLB stadiums, it’s no doubt preferable to playing in an A-ball facility.
The Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field initially ran through 2027. That was extended by a year when the facility was taken out of commission. Assuming everything remains on track for next season, the lease will expire after the ’28 campaign. The City of St. Petersburg was responsible for the repair costs as the lessor and approved a little under $60MM to that end. The Rays remain in search of a long-term stadium deal in the Tampa area. That’s the primary goal for new owner Patrick Zalupski, who purchased the franchise from Stu Sternberg after the latter’s efforts to renegotiate the stadium deal following the 2024 hurricanes stalled.
Latest On Center Field Market
The center field market appears to have lots of demand. The Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals are all looking for upgrades at the position, according to reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.
Those teams all make logical sense. The Phillies acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline but lost him to free agency a few months later. The Mets did the same thing with Cedric Mullins, who was terrible for them. The Rays had a rotating cast of characters in the outfield in 2025 and are known to be looking for upgrades. The Orioles traded Mullins and then trotted out Colton Cowser, who struggled while playing through broken ribs. The Diamondbacks have been waiting for Alek Thomas to break out for a few years now. The Royals have been struggling to get good production from the grass for a few seasons and are looking for upgrades.
That demand might outpace the supply. The free agent market doesn’t have a standout option. Trent Grisham would have been the headliner but he accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger is out there but he’s more of a corner guy who can play some center, as opposed to an everyday solution. Bader is available and coming off a nice season at the plate but that was fuelled by a .359 batting average on balls in play. Mullins, as mentioned, is coming off a dreadful campaign.
On the trade market, Luis Robert Jr. is available but he’s coming off two straight poor seasons. The Astros are open to moving Jake Meyers for pitching help but Meyers has generally been a light-hitting, glove-first type in his career. Perhaps the Rockies would be open to moving Brenton Doyle but he’s still controlled for four more seasons and it would be a sell-low move for Colorado after his poor 2025 campaign.
The Red Sox might be willing to move Jarren Duran to clear their outfield logjam but Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan report that the Sox are looking for a return commensurate with his excellent 2024 season as opposed to his 2025 results. Duran’s combination of offense, defense and speed led to FanGraphs crediting him with 6.8 wins above replacement in 2024. Baseball Reference was even more bullish, giving him 8.7 WAR. He regressed a bit in 2025 and ended up at 3.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. He’ll make $7.7MM in 2026 and can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons after that.
If the Sox don’t want to sell low on Duran and no one is meeting their asking price, then perhaps he’ll stay in Boston. It does feel like they have to move someone, however. Their outfield mix currently projects to include Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Anthony and Rafaela feel locked in because they have both signed extensions. Rafaela can also play second base but is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch.
Another theoretical trade option is Byron Buxton of the Twins. His contract gives him full no-trade protection through 2026, though it then drops to just a five-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. In the lead up to the 2025 deadline, as the Twins sold off a number of controllable relievers and sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, Buxton repeatedly said he wasn’t interested in waiving that clause and wanted to remain a Twin for life.
That stance appears to have softened lately. Reporting last month from Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggested that Buxton would become more open to waiving his clause if the Twins continued tearing down the roster, perhaps by trading Joe Ryan or Pablo López. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on the notion that the Twins would be making more sell-side moves but they also haven’t done much this winter to tip the scales either way.
McDaniel and Passan, linked above, say that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if they mean that in the same way as Hayes, where it’s conditional on the Twins going down the rebuild road. Presumably, if Buxton is asked to waive his clause at some point, that would be part of a rebuild regardless.
Buxton is an incredibly talented player who has dealt with a lot of injury issues. His career high in games played in 140, which was back in 2017. From 2018 to 2023, he never topped 92 contests in any one season. He got to 102 in 2024 and 126 this year. When on the field, the quality has been great. He just wrapped up a season in which he hit 35 home runs and stole 24 bases. He slashed .264/.327/.551 and was credited with 5.0 fWAR.
His unique contract reflects that uncertainty. He is being paid $15MM annually, a decent sum but about half of what most superstars get. However, he can make millions more based on plate appearances and MVP voting. For the Twins, or a theoretical team rostering him in the future, they’d be happy to pay him the extra since that means he’s on the field and producing. Buxton would surely garner lots of interest if the Twins made him available but it’s still not clear if the club will go down that road.
Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
Rays Hire Brandon Hyde As Senior Advisor To Baseball Operations
Dec. 1: The Rays announced Monday that Hyde has joined the organization as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department.
Nov. 26: Former Orioles skipper Brandon Hyde is in talks with the Rays about taking a position within the organization, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. The two parties have been discussing a senior advisor role that would see Hyde work with both the major league club and various minor league affiliates, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds. Murray indicates that while an agreement has not yet been finalized, Hyde is expected to end up working for the Rays for the upcoming season.
Hyde, 52, managed the Orioles from 2019-25. In his seven seasons with Baltimore, his clubs produced a 421-491 record. Judging any manager based on wins and losses alone is a frivolous endeavor, though, and that’s especially true of Hyde, whose first season in Baltimore coincided with a complete teardown and rebuild of the organization. Following the 2018 season, the Orioles dismissed general manager Dan Duquette, hiring current president of baseball operations Mike Elias in his place. Elias installed Hyde as his new skipper but also gutted the roster and spent several seasons tanking while working to rebuild the farm system and modernize the infrastructure of the organization.
Hyde oversaw winning teams each season from 2022-24 and was named 2023 AL Manager of the Year after the O’s won the American League East and piled up 101 victories. The Orioles went to the postseason in both 2023 and 2024 but were swept out of the playoffs both times — first in the ALDS by the eventual World Series champion Rangers and next by the Royals in the 2024 Wild Card round of play.
The Orioles entered 2025 with big expectations but floundered out of the gates thanks to a clear lack of starting pitching and a lineup that wasn’t performing as expected. By mid-May, the 15-28 Orioles had seen their season already slip away. Hyde was dismissed from his managerial post and replaced by third base coach Tony Mansolino on an interim basis.
Prior to his time at the helm in Baltimore, Hyde was a bench coach and first base coach with the Cubs. Before that, he spent two seasons as the Marlins’ bench coach plus several years as a manager, hitting coach and field coordinator in Miami’s minor league ranks. A catcher and first baseman in his playing days, Hyde also spent four years playing in the White Sox’ system before moving onto the coaching and managerial phase of his career.
Rays Interested In Zach Eflin, Adrian Houser
The Rays are known to be perusing the market for shorter-term starting pitching help as they look to fill out their 2026 rotation, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that a pair of familiar names are being discussed by the team as potential targets: right-handers Zach Eflin and Adrian Houser.
Eflin, 32 in April, signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays prior to the 2023 season. He made 50 starts for the Rays before being traded to the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline. In that time, he posted a 3.72 ERA and a 3.26 FIP with a 23.5% strikeout rate against a 3.2% walk rate. His 2023 season in particular was very strong, as he finished 6th in AL Cy Young award voting with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate with a 3.50 ERA and 3.01 FIP across 177 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate fell to 19.6% last year, however, and this past season the bottom completely fell out from Eflin’s performance. He was limited to just 14 starts for the Orioles by injuries, and when he was healthy enough to take the mound he struggled to a 5.93 ERA with a 5.64 FIP with a 16.2% strikeout rate.
Houser, 33 in February, was acquired by the Rays from the White Sox at this year’s trade deadline. He made ten starts with a 4.79 ERA and a 4.38 FIP, though his overall season was much stronger than that. In 125 innings between Chicago and Tampa, Houser posted a 3.31 ERA and a 3.81 FIP across 21 starts this past year despite a 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Despite those strong overall results, Houser’s weak ratios combine with a long history as a bottom of the rotation arm or fifth starter (99 ERA+ from 2019-24) to make the 2025 season look like an outlier in his career, and while the Rays are an organization known for maximizing their pitchers his ten starts in Tampa didn’t inspire much confidence.
Both pitchers have flashed mid-rotation ability in the past but head into free agency with significant question marks that could leave them limited to relatively affordable short-term deals. It shouldn’t be a shock that this would be appealing to the Rays, as the club perennially faces a payroll crunch. Topkin suggests the club’s payroll is likely to clock in around $85MM for 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club for a payroll of around $94MM, but that would include a $15.5MM salary for embattled shortstop Wander Franco, who hasn’t played since 2023 and was convicted of sexual abuse earlier this year. He’s been on the restricted list since July of 2024 and has not collected an MLB paycheck ever since. Without Franco’s money on the books, the team’s payroll falls to $78MM, meaning they have around $7MM in budget space for additions.
That should be enough to sign a low-end rotation arm like Eflin or Houser in free agency, but with other needs to fill (such as a hole at catcher and a desire to improve over Taylor Walls at shortstop) Topkin suggests the club could also turn to the trade market. That could be an attractive avenue to acquire cost-controlled talent while also shedding salary if the club parts with a player like Brandon Lowe, who is due $11.5MM in 2026 and has been considered a trade candidate for years. Topkin speculatively suggests a reunion with Twins right-hander Joe Ryan could be one avenue the Rays could pursue on the trade market. The 2025 All-Star’s projected $5.8MM salary in 2026 is certainly affordable, but the link between the Rays and Ryan seems to be largely speculative on Topkin’s part. Other possible trade candidates who would come on affordable salaries this year include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals.
Rays Prospect Xavier Isaac “Fully Recovered” After Brain Surgery
Rays outfield prospect Xavier Isaac was limited to 41 Double-A games in 2025, and he didn’t play after June 25 due to what was thought to be a continuation of the wrist and elbow injuries that hampered him earlier in the season. However, Isaac revealed in an Instagram post that he actually underwent a “life saving” brain surgery on July 3, following a routine brain scan for what seemed to be just a dehydration issue. The specific nature of the surgery wasn’t detailed, and Isaac asked the Rays to keep news of the procedure private.
Fortunately, Isaac said he has “fully recovered” and is ready to resume his career. MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes that Isaac “is expected to be ready for Spring Training,” and that some on-field work has already begun since Isaac took part in a hitting camp along with other Tampa Bay prospects.
Selected with the 29th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Isaac has hit .262/.378/.489 with 46 home runs over 1064 plate appearances in pro baseball. Isaac cracked the Double-A level for the first time in 2024 and was still had an .812 OPS over 175 PA with the Montgomery affiliate in 2025 before his season was abruptly ended, even though he struck out in 52 of those 175 trips to the plate.
Isaac has drawn top-100 attention from multiple outlets over the last two seasons, with MLB Pipeline the most bullish by ranking Isaac as the 51st-best prospect in baseball heading into the 2025 season. While his 2025 numbers are hard to really evaluate due to both his injuries and lack of playing time, Isaac’s ability to make consistent contact was a question mark for pundits even prior to this year. Isaac has plenty of power and exit velocity when he’s able to make contact and get the ball into the air, but he’ll need to do this on a more consistent basis in order to keep making his way up the minor league ladder.
Of course, the higher priority right now is just that Isaac (who turns 22 in December) is healthy following what he described as “the scariest moment of my life.” Isaac gave thanks to his loved ones, the Rays, and the Duke University Medical team for helping him through the ordeal, and said that he now has “a new purpose, a new fire, and a heart full of gratitude” as he returns to action.
“This comeback isn’t just about baseball — it’s about life. Every day. Every breath. Every swing. Here’s to recovery, resilience, and the next chapter,” Isaac wrote.
Rays Sign Jake Fraley
The Rays announced the signing of outfielder Jake Fraley to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $3MM guarantee for the CAA client, who can earn an additional $400K in bonuses — $100K apiece for 85, 115, 145 and 175 days on the active roster. The Rays non-tendered him last week but were reported to be interested in bringing Fraley back at a lesser rate than his projected arbitration price tag (which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged at $3.6MM).
Fraley, 30, was originally drafted by the Rays with the No. 77 overall pick back in 2016. He wound up in Seattle, where he’d go on to make his MLB debut, after being included in the trade that brought catcher Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay. Fraley played parts of three seasons with the M’s before again being traded, this time to Cincinnati as part of the return for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.
In parts of four seasons with the Reds, Fraley hit .260/.336/.421 with 38 homers, 54 doubles and a pair of triples in 1202 plate appearances. Calf, shoulder and oblique injuries combined to limit him to just 76 games and 217 plate appearances this season, during which he batted .241/.332/.382. The Reds placed Fraley on waivers in August, at which point he was claimed by the Braves. Atlanta waived Fraley after the season, and the Rays claimed him — only to non-tender him last week. He’s now back on what are surely more favorable terms for the team.
Fraley doesn’t hit lefties whatsoever (.175/.271/.237 in 240 career plate appearances), but he’s a .261/.344/.432 hitter in more than 1300 attempts versus right-handed pitching. He runs well — this season’s average sprint speed of 28.4 ft/sec sat was a career-high and sat in the 77th percentile of big leaguers — and is a capable defender in either outfield corner. His arm strength checked into the 86th percentile of big league outfielders in 2025, per Statcast.
The addition of Fraley gives the Rays an even more crowded outfield mix. He’s a third pure lefty swinger joining Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe, as well as the right-handed-hitting Jonny DeLuca and switch-hitting Jake Mangum in the mix for playing time. Lefties Tristan Peters and Richie Palacios are also on the 40-man roster. The exact manner in which playing time shakes out will hinge on subsequent moves and spring performance, but Fraley should see time in both corners and at designated hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s a good enough fielder and runner to profile as a late-game substitute, whether that’s as a defensive replacement, a pinch-runner or a pinch-hitter against a tough righty.
Tampa Bay currently projects for a $94MM payroll, per RosterResource. Fraley will obviously push that number north a bit. That’s already higher than the payroll in 2025, a season spent in a minor league park wherein the Rays ranked second-to-last in the majors in attendance. The Rays already made the somewhat surprising option to decline their $11MM club option on closer Pete Fairbanks, and it stands to reason that further veteran pieces could be moved. Brandon Lowe and his $11.5MM salary are available on the trade market, and speculatively speaking, Josh Lowe (projected $2.9MM salary) could be easier to part with now that Fraley is on board.
Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times first reported the agreement and the $3MM salary with $400K in bonuses. The Associated Press reported the bonus specifics.