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Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, we identified 11 players who were entering "make or break" years. These guys had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for nice paydays in the future. Now that we're into August, let's take a second to check in each player (all links go to MLBTR posts)…

  • Scott Baker, Twins — Baker, 30, had elbow surgery in April and will miss the entire season. Minnesota will likely decline his $9.25MM option for 2013 (no buyout).
  • Phil Hughes, Yankees — The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 4.10 ERA in 131 2/3 innings this year, including a 3.40 ERA since mid-May. He's a safe bet to be tendered a contract for 2014, his final year as a arbitration-eligible player.
  • Jair Jurrjens, Braves — Jurrjens, 26, pitched so poorly earlier in the season that he had to be sent to the minors. He's since resurfaced and owns 6.89 ERA in 48 1/3 innings, cementing his status as a non-tender candidate.
  • Adam Lind, Blue Jays — Lind has battled back problems and also been demoted to Triple-A this season, and he's hit .227/.298/.394 while with the big league team. The 29-year-old continues to disappoint since signing his four-year, $18MM extension prior to 2010.
  • Francisco Liriano, White Sox — It's been another up and down season for the 28-year-old southpaw, who owns a 5.03 ERA in 111 innings. The Twins traded Liriano to the ChiSox at the deadline.
  • James Loney, Dodgers — Loney, now 28, hasn't helped himself at all this season, hitting just .251/.301/.330 in 327 plate appearances. He might have to settle for a minor league contract this coming offseason.
  • Kendrys Morales, Angels — The 29-year-old is hitting .282/.327/.455 with 14 homers on the year, well below the level he established prior to his leg injury in 2010. Morales figures to be both a trade and non-tender candidate after the season.
  • Mike Pelfrey, Mets — Pelfrey pitched to a 2.29 ERA in three starts before needing Tommy John surgery. The Mets are expected to non-tender the 28-year-old after the season.
  • Geovany Soto, Rangers — The 29-year-old backstop has continued to deal with injuries in 2012 and is hitting just .201/.289/.356. Soto is an obvious non-tender candidate.
  • Kevin Youkilis, White Sox — Youkilis lost his starting job with the Red Sox and was traded to the White Sox, who are likely to decline his $13MM option after the season. The 33-year-old has dealt with nagging injuries and is hitting .238/.339/.427 overall.
  • Delmon Young, Tigers — Young, 26, has had a below-average season at the plate (.266/.298/.402) and has dealt with some off-field problems. He hasn't helped his free agent stock any.

Rangers Designate Alberto Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Rangers have designated infielder Alberto Gonzalez for assignment, Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthwest.com reports (on Twitter). The move creates roster space for Mark Lowe, who is returning from the disabled list.

Gonzalez appeared in 24 games for the Rangers this year, playing second base, third base and shortstop. The 29-year-old has collected 13 hits, including two doubles and a triple, in 55 plate appearances. Gonzalez, who was signed to a minor league deal last offseason, earns $750K and will be arbitration eligible this offseason should the Rangers or another team choose to tender him a contract.

Rangers, Hamilton To Wait For Offseason To Negotiate

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The Rangers and Josh Hamilton will hold off on contract negotiations until the end of the season, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Hamilton said last winter that he didn't want talks to extend into the season, but the two sides held light discussions in May, when Hamilton was in the midst of his early-season tear.  Both Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Hamilton's agent Michael Moye declined to comment on the state of negotiations.   

It was seen as a longshot that an agreement would be reached, with even Nolan Ryan saying that he expected Hamilton to test the free agent market.  Heyman reports that the Rangers have yet to make Hamilton a contract offer, which Heyman interprets as a possible sign that the team isn't willing to extend the kind of eight- or nine-year commitment that Hamilton reportedly wants.  The Rangers shy away from very long-term contracts in any case and "indications are that they won't buck that trend here" for Hamilton.

Signing any 31-year-old with a checkered injury history to a big multiyear deal would already be a risk, but that uncertainty is compounded by Hamilton's struggles with substance abuse.  Heyman hears from two rival general managers that Hamilton carries too much risk to get more than a five-year deal (worth $100MM-140MM) on the open market, though the GMs note that Hamilton just needs one particularly aggressive team to potentially offer him that longer contract.  One GM suggests the Dodgers could be in on Hamilton this winter as their new ownership is willing and eager to spend.

Hamilton looked to be on track for one of baseball's greatest seasons after he posted a .368/.420/.764 line with 21 homers in April and May, though he has struggled badly since, hitting just .209/.284/.383 since May 31.

Quick Hits: Trout, Tigers, Marlins, Rockies

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The Cubs were scheduled to play the first ever night game at Wrigley Field on this date 24 years ago, but the game was rained out, so it wasn't until the next day that the Cubs officially welcomed night baseball to the North Side of Chicago. Here are today's links, as the Cubs visit the Padres in San Diego…

  • MLB executives discussed a possible Mike Trout extension with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (link at ESPN.com). Trout could break records as an arbitration eligible player if he continues playing at an MVP level, so it might be surprisingly expensive for the Angels to lock the 21-year-old up.
  • Tigers manager Jim Leyland gives president and GM Dave Dombrowski a ‘gold star’ for his work acquiring Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante and Jeff Baker, Chris Iott of MLive.com reports. Leyland’s top priority was a pitcher, so getting Infante in the same trade as Sanchez was a bonus. “When it worked out that we got both of them at the same time, that was pretty good," the manager said.
  • The Marlins will be willing to spend this offseason, but they’ll do so carefully, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Team president David Samson says the Marlins aim to remain competitive, despite their disappointing 2012 season. “We’re not rebuilding, we’re retooling,” he said. For more of his comments on the team click here.
  • The Rockies have some interest in Yorvit Torrealba, who was recently placed on release waivers, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports (on Twitter). However, it’s not clear how he’d fit on the Rockies with both Ramon Hernandez and Wilin Rosario healthy.

Rangers To Release Yorvit Torrealba

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The Rangers have placed catcher Yorvit Torrealba on release waivers, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports. The Rangers designated Torrealba for assignment last week after acquiring Geovany Soto from Chicago, and were unable to trade him. If no team claims Torrealba, he'll receive his unconditional release. 

Torrealba, 34, posted a .236/.302/.342 batting line in 182 plate appearances for Texas before getting designated for assignment. He has prevented 23% of stolen base attempts this year, down from his career rate of 30%. The Nationals reportedly had interest in Torrealba last month, but Washington has since acquired Kurt Suzuki.

West Notes: Oswalt, Giants, Overbay, Dodgers

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Rangers pitcher Roy Oswalt was reportedly unhappy about being relegated to the Texas bullpen, leading Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports and others to suggest that the veteran put his concerns aside for the sake of the team.  Morosi stopped short of saying that the Rangers should part ways with the veteran, but that notion has undoubtedly crossed the minds of fans who have watched Oswalt struggle this far with his new club.  Here’s more out on Oswalt and some items out of the NL West as well..

  • Oswalt and Rangers manager Ron Washington met Tuesday and both seemed satisfied that the right-hander is ready to help the bullpen in any way possible, writes Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com.  The soon-to-be 35-year-old has also said that he never requested a trade from the club during any point of their disagreement.
  • The Giants have looked into signing first baseman Lyle Overbay, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).  However, the Giants would like the first baseman to get some work at Triple-A Fresno first and so far he is not eager to do that.  Overbay was released by the D’Backs yesterday and Reds GM Walt Jocketty says that he isn’t interested in his services.
  • The new Dodgers ownership has made it clear that they are willing to spend big in order to win, and this may just be the tip of the iceberg, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  Heyman adds that the Dodgers were not only willing to eat the remainder of Cliff Lee’s sizable contract but offered players in exchange for him as well.

Pitching Notes: Blue Jays, Lee, Garza, Oswalt

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The Blue Jays announced that right-handers Drew Hutchison (Tommy John surgery) and Dustin McGowan (arthroscopic shoulder surgery) will undergo operations on Thursday. Hutchison is expected to return within a year or so, but no timetable is listed for McGowan, who had previous shoulder surgeries in 2008 and 2010. Here are some more notes pertaining to MLB pitchers…

Non-Tender Candidate: Geovany Soto

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The Rangers wanted Geovany Soto enough to trade minor league pitcher Jake Brigham for him. Do they like him enough to earmark $4MM-plus and a roster spot for him in 2013? Soto doesn’t have any guarantee that his Rangers career will last more than a few months.

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Soto has emerged as a 2012 non-tender candidate, since his offense has diminished to uncomfortably low levels. He’s on track for career-lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage this year, and after 206 total plate appearances he has a batting line of .201/.286/.348.

Those offensive numbers would be disappointing for just about any player, but they’re especially troubling for a former Rookie of the Year known for his bat. Soto was an above-average offensive player in 2008 and 2010, and his offense remained passable in 2009 and 2011. His batting average on balls in play is presently 74 points below his career average, an indication that bad luck has contributed to his poor season. Soto’s still just 29 years old and he has a history of hitting left-handed pitching (career .904 OPS vs. southpaws), so there’s some reason for optimism going forward.

Soto does an average job at limiting the running game. He has prevented 27% of stolen base attempts both this year (league average is 26%) and for his career. The Fielding Bible Volume III suggested before the season that Soto was a capable but unremarkable defensive catcher.

Soto now earns $4.3MM and is on track to go to arbitration for the third and final time this offseason. The Wasserman Media Group client projects to earn $4.6MM in 2013, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. If the Rangers view Soto as a platoon or backup catcher, they probably won’t be inclined to pay him starter money. And if they are willing to spend $4.5MM on a catcher, they’ll have plenty of choices other than Soto (only one free agent catcher obtained more than $4MM in guaranteed money last offseason).

Soto provides the Rangers with insurance in case Mike Napoli leaves as a free agent after the season. If Napoli signs with another team before the mid-December deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players, Texas might be more inclined to retain Soto and hope for a return to his career norms in 2013. 

It’s possible for players to restore their value and avoid non-tenders with a strong showing down the stretch. Delmon Young seemed likely to be non-tendered a year ago this time, but he hit eight home runs in 40 regular season games with the Tigers before adding five more homers in the postseason. If Soto shows flashes of being the same hitter he was in 2008 and 2010, the Rangers may determine he’s worth retaining for 2013. If not, expect him to hit free agency in December as a 2012 non-tender.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Cafardo On Bourn, Red Sox, Ellsbury, Youkilis

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at players who are candidates to be put on waivers.  Big names (and contracts) such as Jayson Werth, Alfonso Soriano, and Vernon Wells top the list but, of course, being put on waivers hardly guarantees a player's exit from his respective team.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • Michael Bourn could be a free agent target of the Phillies after dealing Shane Victorino. Other likely targets could be Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, Denard Span of the Twins, or the Angels’ Peter Bourjos.  John Mayberry Jr. is getting a chance but the Phillies seek a dynamic player.
  • Ellsbury was upset that his name was included in trade rumors with the Rangers, according to a source.  Ellsbury is said to like playing for Bobby Valentine and the feeling is that he'd like to remain with the Red Sox.
  • The White Sox like Kevin Youkilis, but probably not enough to pick up his $13MM option for 2013, according to one club official.  The White Sox are content with him as a rental as they didn’t give up much to get him.
  • The Red Sox and Rangers discussed Ellsbury and others before the deadline but Josh Hamilton's name never came up in talks.
  • The Brewers' interest in catcher Kelly Shoppach was considerable after they had designated George Kottaras for assignment.  The Red Sox pushed fellow catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and will offer him around again if Ryan Lavarnway shows he can handle the staff and hits well.
  • The Astros could be the one and only managerial opening for the coming season, unless the Phillies part ways with Charlie Manuel.

Quick Hits: Lowe, Cubs, Antonini, Rangers, Indians

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Links from around baseball as Saturday becomes Sunday..

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