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Orioles, Blue Jays Discussed Franchise-Record Contracts With Corbin Burnes

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Perhaps the most surprising deal of the offseason came together late last night when the Diamondbacks and right-hander Corbin Burnes reportedly reached an agreement on a six-year deal that guarantees Burnes $210MM. It’s a deal that Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports came together rapidly after Burnes’s camp expressed the right-hander’s desire to pitch in the desert. Prior to Burnes pivoting to Arizona, the three teams most frequently connected to the right-hander were the incumbent Orioles, their division rival Blue Jays, and the Diamondbacks’ own division rival Giants.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale previously reported that the Jays and Giants both offered Burnes more than he ultimately received from the Diamondbacks, but subsequent reports have shed more light on the offers Burnes received prior to signing, particularly from Baltimore and Toronto. The Orioles, according to Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner, made a “competitive offer” for Burnes that did not ultimately reach the level of the deal he signed in Arizona. The exact specifics of the club’s offer to Burnes aren’t entirely clear, but it’s worth noting that Nightengale later reported that the Orioles and Blue Jays both discussed franchise-record contracts with Burnes while adding that one AL East club offered Burnes a seven-year, $250MM contract that did not come with an opt-out opportunity. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, described the Blue Jays, Orioles, and one other team from the East divisions as the three biggest bidders for Burnes. That report tracks with Nightengale’s reporting but conflicts with that of Allentuck as Heyman appears to suggest that the Orioles outbid the Diamondbacks for Burnes’s services.

It’s unclear which AL East club made the $250MM offer Nightengale mentioned, and it’s worth noting that both the Yankees and Red Sox were regarded as serious contenders for Burnes’s services before pivoting away from the right-hander to land Max Fried and Garrett Crochet respectively. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays needn’t have gone anywhere near that $250MM level to offer Burnes the largest contract in franchise history; Toronto’s current record for guaranteed money is the six-year, $150MM contract they gave to outfielder George Springer, while the Orioles’ current record is held by former first baseman Chris Davis and his seven-year, $161MM deal. Those relatively low benchmarks make offering Burnes a franchise-record guarantee a somewhat obvious step for either club to take if at all serious about pursuing the right-hander, as he was wildly expected to land a deal in the $200MM range even from the outset of the offseason before the winter’s hot market for starting pitching came into focus.

Regardless of how competitive the offers Burnes received from Baltimore and Toronto ultimately were, both clubs will now have to turn their attention to other options as they look to fortify their rotations. The Blue Jays’ top priority is surely attempting to hammer out an extension with star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that will keep him in town following the 2025 season, when he’s currently scheduled to hit free agency. Aside from that, however, the club has expressed a desire to both bolster their starting rotation while also bringing in a solid hitter who can help protect Guerrero in the lineup. On the rotation front, the club has reportedly shown interest in right-hander Nick Pivetta, but another possibility for the club could be focusing on adding a bat like Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar and then focusing on a lower-level rotation signing like Michael Lorenzen or Spencer Turnbull.

As for the Orioles, the club already landed Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez for its lineup earlier this winter and figures to be focused squarely on replacing Burnes at the front of its rotation going forward. A reunion with Jack Flaherty, who struggled with the club down the stretch in 2023 but looked much better with the Tigers and Dodgers this past season, has been floated as a possible back-up plan in the past. It’s also not difficult to imagine the club opting to explore the trade market, as they did when they first landed Burnes last winter. Padres right-hander Dylan Cease is available as a potential rental ace who mirrors last year’s acquisition of Burnes to a T, but it’s possible the Orioles would prefer to land a more controllable piece such as Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, who they’ve reportedly joined a number of teams in inquiring after this winter.

Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

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Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sets Spring Training Deadline For Extension Talks With Blue Jays

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question hanging over the Blue Jays as they prepare for what might be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman.  GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays would be looking to start extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations were taking place in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).

Guerrero reiterated that he has interest in staying in Toronto, and is “ready to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price.  However, “what they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340MM.  Notably, this offer came after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, and completely reset the market for superstar players.

Only limited time may be available to close the gap that exists between the two sides, as Guerrero said that he has let the front office know that he will cease negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ Spring Training camp.   It is a bit of an unusual self-imposed deadline date, as most players set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension.  Obviously an extension can happen at any point before a player enters free agency, yet players generally prefer to keep focused only on baseball once the season begins, and thus contract talks are usually limited to the offseason.

It isn’t uncommon for some deals, of course, to be announced a few days or weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and just a few final details needed to be confirmed.  Likewise, Guerrero probably isn’t going to end all talks in late February if he and the Jays have worked out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore rather complex) extension.  That said, reducing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a pretty public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.

This is purely speculation on my part, but the earlier “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade.  If an extension can’t be worked out before Spring Training properly begins and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero won’t re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and try to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets prior to Opening Day.  To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason adding talent to take another run at contention in 2025, it would seem far more likely that the Jays just keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what might be something of a final run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.

The length of the $340MM offer wasn’t specified, but a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “only” an average annual value of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the 15th-highest AAV in baseball history.  Nine years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks as the seventh-highest all-time, topped only by the most recent deals signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Judge.  An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.

Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, however, so an eight-year deal only runs through his age-33 season.  Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero through just his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340MM range only lowers the AAV to an even greater extent.  It isn’t necessarily clear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it is easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth slightly more than half of what Soto (who is also entering his age-26 season) received from New York.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the gap in production between Soto and Guerrero would justify a gap in earnings, though it isn’t quite as large a divide as one might imagine.  Soto’s huge 2024 campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking price through the ceiling, but looking just at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.

Through his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR.  For both players, their value is largely derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as well below average in both departments.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero, and floated the idea of a contract of somewhere between $500MM-$600MM.  Assuming no deferred money would be involved, this would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto.  “Excessive as it might sound to the average fan…keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market.  And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt,” Rosenthal writes.

The latter point is another over-arching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro.  While the Blue Jays came out of a rebuild to reach the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the club didn’t win even a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window could already be closed.

Toronto’s ardent pursuits of both Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter indicated that ownership was prepared to go the distance in bidding on top-flight talent, though it remains to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero quite in the same tier those other two superstars.  It was just a year ago that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth any kind of long-term investment.  For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also catching fire in the postseason to help the Nationals win the World Series.

Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto specifically is a comp that Guerrero’s reps at the Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it keeps Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite salary tier.  Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox is also frequently mentioned as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was also entering his age-26 season.  Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons prior to his extension) and thus an argument to earn more than Devers got from Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish number reflects the idea of Guerrero as only slightly better than Devers.

It could also be, of course, that the Jays are willing to pay well above $340MM, but offered that figure as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking price in the wake of Soto’s contract.  Plenty of time still exists for the two sides to eventually match up on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal isn’t exactly imminent.

Blue Jays, Diamondbacks Have Expressed Interest In Ryan Helsley

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As the Cardinals eye a reset focused on younger players in 2025, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com report that the club has received interest from the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks regarding closer Ryan Helsley. A subsequent report from John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 confirms the interest in Helsley on the part of the D-Backs, though Gambadoro adds that the Cardinals do not appear to be interested in dealing their closer.

That apparent disinclination to deal Helsley meshes with a report from earlier this month that characterized St. Louis as unlikely to part ways with Helsley this winter, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggesting at the time that they plan on Helsley remaining with the team for 2025. Given the perennial desire for high-end relief talent at the trade deadline each summer, it stands to reason that if Helsley pitches anything like he did in 2024 (2.04 ERA, 49 saves, 29.7% strikeout rate) in the first half of 2025 the Cardinals would still be able to land quite the haul for his services in the event they aren’t in position to push for a return to the playoffs.

Given that reality, it’s perhaps not a shock that the Cardinals have seemingly set an incredibly high bar for even considering moving on from the two-time All-Star. The 30-year-old has been among the league’s most dominant relievers in recent years, with a 1.83 ERA and 82 saves to go with a 34.6% strikeout rate in 167 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign. That sort of dominant relief profile can net an impressive return even with just one year of team control remaining, as the Brewers demonstrated when they acquired Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin from the Yankees in exchange for star closer Devin Williams.

Considering a report earlier this week suggested that the Snakes had interest in Williams before he was ultimately traded to the Yankees, it’s perhaps no surprise that Arizona has made contact with the Cardinals regarding Helsley. Club brass has made plain their goal of adding high-leverage relief help this winter following the loss of Paul Sewald to free agency. The club’s current back-end trio of Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel is a solid one, but it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks would have interest in bumping a young arm like Martinez out of the closer role and bringing in someone more established.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, appear to be in the market for upgrades to virtually every area of their roster after a disappointing 2024 season that saw them finish dead last in the AL East. As star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters his final year of team control before free agency, Toronto appears to be focused on adding a bat to the lineup who can help offer him protection and bulking up a starting rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi to a midseason trade and stands to lose Chris Bassitt to free agency next winter. In addition to those two issues, however, it can’t be ignored that the Jays non-tendered longtime closer Jordan Romano last month and currently figure to rely on Chad Green and the recently re-signed Yimi Garcia in the late innings. Adding a more proven closer to that mix would surely help turn around a Blue Jays club that saw its relievers struggle to the second-worst ERA and the worst FIP in baseball last year.

Other options beyond Helsley exist for strengthening either club’s bullpen corps, of course. It’s unclear whether either club would spend what it takes to land a top-of-the-market closing option like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, but veteran closers like Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson are all available in free agency this winter and could be had on a shorter commitment. Sewald, José Leclerc, and Chris Martin are among the other relievers available who could impact a club’s late-inning mix and could be more affordable than other options available.

Blue Jays Sign Josh Walker

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed left-hander Josh Walker to a one-year split contract. Per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, the southpaw will make $760K, which is next year’s league minimum, for time spent in the majors. The Associated Press reports that he’ll be paid at a $180K rate while in the minors. Right-hander Hagen Danner has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Walker, 30, has a little bit of major league experience. He tossed 22 1/3 innings with the Mets over the past two seasons, allowing 6.45 earned runs per nine in that small sample. He struck out 22.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.7% clip. He was designated for assignment by the Mets in July and flipped to the Pirates, though the Bucs designated him for assignment shortly thereafter and eventually released him.

Those major league numbers aren’t especially impressive, but the Jays are likely attracted to his minor league work, where he has shown huge strikeout ability but also significant control issues. He has thrown 89 innings on the farm over the past three years with a 3.54 ERA, giving out walks to 12.7% of opponents but also punching them out at a huge 33.7% rate. The Jays were seemingly intrigued enough by those numbers to give Walker a 40-man roster spot.

Remaking the bullpen is an ongoing project for the Jays after the group let them down in 2024. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA this year, with only the Rockies posting a worse number in that category. Since the season ended, Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano were both cut from the roster and both have signed with other clubs already. The Jays re-signed Yimi García, who they had traded to the Mariners last year, and also acquired Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade.

Prior to this deal, the only lefty relievers on the roster were Brendon Little, Brandon Eisert and Easton Lucas. It’s a very inexperienced group, as none of those southpaws has even thrown 50 big league innings yet. Walker adds another lefty into that competition and he still has an option year remaining, as do the other three, so they might take turns moving between the big leagues and Triple-A throughout the year. Walker still has less than a year of service time, so he can be cheaply retained for many years to come if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Danner, 26, he was drafted as a catcher but struck out a lot in the lower levels of the minors and got moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 35 2/3 innings at High-A with a 2.02 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. That was his first professional season as a pitcher but he was already Rule 5 eligible due to the years he spent behind the plate. The Jays gave him a 40-man roster spot after that season to prevent him from being plucked away.

He has hit a few speed bumps since then. He spent most of 2022 on the injured list and only made four minor league appearances. In 2023, he was healthy enough to throw 28 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate were quite good but he allowed eight home runs. He also made his major league debut that year but only tossed one third of an inning before landing on the injured list due to an oblique strain. In 2024, he logged 34 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.15 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

Overall, the results haven’t been bad, but he hasn’t been able to pitch much due to the time spent catching and the health issues. He has just 114 1/3 professional innings on his ledger thus far and he has just one option year remaining.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Jays some time to see if there’s any trade interest in Danner.

Blue Jays Receiving Trade Interest In Bo Bichette

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The Blue Jays are taking trade calls on Bo Bichette, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Rosenthal cautions that Toronto is not actively shopping their shortstop, he reports that the Jays are willing to deal Bichette if another club meets a lofty asking price.

That’s a change from last month. At the GM Meetings in early November, general manager Ross Atkins told Jon Morosi of the MLB Network that any trade calls regarding Bichette would be “an easy no.” When a GM publicly shoots down trade rumors regarding a player to that extent, they rarely reverse course.

The biggest exception in recent years came when Juan Soto was a National. Washington GM Mike Rizzo said in June 2022 that the team was “not trading” the outfielder. Two months later, Soto was a Padre. Circumstances changed in the interim, as Soto rejected a $440MM extension offer a couple weeks before the deadline. (That decision proved wise considering the amount of money he landed in free agency two and a half years later.)

Toronto’s circumstances have also changed since Atkins said he wouldn’t consider a Bichette deal. The Jays acquired Andrés Giménez from the Guardians last week, taking on nearly $100MM on his five-year contract to do so. Giménez is the game’s best defensive second baseman. He has won the AL Gold Glove award at the keystone three years running. He came up as a shortstop prospect and didn’t fully move off that position until 2023.

Giménez has elite range, sure hands, and above-average arm strength. He could probably handle shortstop and may well remain a plus defender there. That seemed like Toronto’s long-term plan when they acquired him. Giménez would play second base for his first season with the Jays, then kick over to shortstop once Bichette hit free agency next winter.

That still seems the likeliest outcome. However, Rosenthal notes that the Jays could deal Bichette while signing Alex Bregman to pair with Giménez on the left side of the infield. Toronto has come up empty on its pursuit of top-tier free agents thus far. They’re among four to six teams that are reportedly in the mix on Bregman, who is easily the best unsigned position player. To be clear, Rosenthal didn’t characterize a Bichette trade as being conditional on the Jays signing Bregman. He simply floated that as one potential sequence of outcomes.

The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Giménez, and Bichette lined up at three infield spots. Third base is less settled. Toronto has a collection of upper level infielders who are either light on MLB experience or project as utility types. Ernie Clement would probably get the bulk of the playing time. Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez could also vie for reps.

That’s not a group that’d stop the Jays from adding Bregman. They’d have room on the roster for the star third baseman even if they hold Bichette. Dealing their shortstop would open spending room for the upcoming season while potentially bringing back MLB-ready outfield or pitching talent. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM in his final year of club control.

At the same time, teams could be reluctant to package significant talent after the worst season of Bichette’s career. He’s coming off a dismal .225/.277/.322 showing over 336 plate appearances. He landed on the injured list three times and only appeared in half the team’s games. A pair of right calf strains were the biggest issue. He also broke his right middle finger late in the year and required minor surgery.

That terrible season came out of nowhere. Bichette has otherwise been one of the league’s best middle infielders since he debuted in 2019. He’d hit above .290 and reached 20 homers in each of his first three full seasons. Bichette went into the ’24 campaign with a career .299/.340/.487 slash line in more than 2300 plate appearances. He garnered down ballot MVP votes each year between 2021-23.

Teams don’t know which version of Bichette they’ll get in 2025. That’s also true of the Jays, who are wary of selling low on a star talent. Toronto has never seemed optimistic about their chance of signing him beyond next season, but they’re going into ’25 with the hope of competing. Trading a potential All-Star shortstop for prospects wouldn’t align with that goal. If they fall out of the race, they could market him at the deadline. The best scenario (short of an extension) would be a rebound year from Bichette that helps to keep Toronto in contention and allows them to make a qualifying offer next winter.

The Jays’ willingness to hear teams out on Bichette — even if an offseason trade remains unlikely — boosts a very thin shortstop market. Willy Adames was the top free agent. He went to the Giants, the team with the clearest combination of positional need and payroll flexibility. Ha-Seong Kim, who is recovering from labrum surgery that’ll force him to begin the season on the injured list, is the only other potential regular on the open market. There aren’t many obvious trade candidates. The Braves stand out as the contender with the biggest question at shortstop. The Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Padres and Pirates could also stand to upgrade at least one middle infield position (though the final three clubs might each balk at the $16.5MM price point).

Mariners Claim Nick Raposo

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2:20pm: The Mariners have now announced the claim. Their 40-man roster is up to 38 players.

1:00pm: The Mariners have claimed catcher Nick Raposo off waivers from the Blue Jays, MLBTR has learned. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Mariners had 40-man roster vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Raposo, 27 in June, still hasn’t made his major league debut. The Cardinals added him to their 40-man roster in June when both Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera were on the injured list, but Contreras was reinstated a few days later. Raposo was optioned to the minors without getting into a game. He was designated for assignment in July when the Cards added Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a deal just before the deadline. He was claimed by the Jays and stuck on their roster until last week, getting designated for assignment again when Toronto signed Yimi García.

Over the past four years, Raposo has taken 808 plate appearances in the minors. He has a combined batting line of .241/.321/.387 in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 85. Baseball Prospectus has generally given him solid marks for his blocking and throwing in the minors.

The Mariners only really have one proper catcher on the 40-man roster right now in Cal Raleigh. They also have Mitch Garver, who they signed last offseason with the idea of using him as a full-time designated hitter. That plan didn’t work out as Garver struggled with the bat in 2024, so the M’s did eventually put him behind the plate a few times, either to try to extract some value from him or with the hope that returning to catching would somehow help get back in a groove offensively. Seby Zavala was the third backstop to play for the M’s in 2024 but he was outrighted off the roster in September and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox last month.

It’s unclear how the M’s plan to tackle their catching situation in 2025, apart from Raleigh being the obvious mainstay. If Garver is the backup, then Raposo can serve as an optionable depth piece in Triple-A. If Garver is going to be heavily in the DH mix, Raposo could battle for the backup job. The nature of that battle will depend on who else the M’s bring in, whether that’s veterans on non-roster deals or perhaps other waiver claims such as this one.

Blue Jays Had Shown Interest In Cody Bellinger

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After weeks of discussion between the Cubs and Yankees, Cody Bellinger landed in the Bronx. Before that was finalized, the Mariners and Astros were among the teams that had been loosely tied to the former MVP in trade rumors.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported just after the Bellinger trade that the Blue Jays had also been involved in talks with Chicago. It looks as if Toronto ended as the runner-up. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters this afternoon that the Cubs had narrowed it down to two teams and decided they would pull the trigger on an offer by Tuesday (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “If we didn’t pull him down, he would’ve been off the board,” Cashman added. While the GM declined to identify the other team, reading between the lines makes it seem that the Jays finished in second.

Toronto has had longstanding interest in Bellinger. They were involved in his free agent bidding in each of the last two winters. In both cases, they watched him sign with Chicago instead. This time around, he’s headed to a divisional competitor. The Yankees sent depth starter Cody Poteet to the Cubs in a one-for-one swap. Toronto could certainly have made a more compelling offer in terms of prospect talent, but it seems they didn’t want to match the Yankees financially.

New York agreed to assume $47.5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. There haven’t been any details about how much Toronto would’ve been willing to commit. The Cubs’ biggest goal was shedding as much of the deal as possible. Bellinger looked like the odd man out in Chicago even before they acquired Kyle Tucker. That blockbuster trade made a Bellinger move inevitable.

The Jays have taken on big money in one trade this offseason. They absorbed the remaining five years and $96.5MM on the Andrés Giménez contract in their Winter Meetings deal with the Guardians. While Toronto has been tied to almost every free agent of note, their only MLB signing thus far is a two-year deal to reunite with middle reliever Yimi García.

Outfield remains a clear weakness. George Springer is coming off a .220/.303/.371 showing in his age-34 season. Daulton Varsho is expected to begin the season on the injured list after undergoing a rotator cuff repair in his right shoulder. He’ll be the everyday center fielder upon his return. Varsho is one of the game’s best defenders, but he’s been a roughly league average hitter when healthy. Any lingering effects from the shoulder issue could push him toward the bottom third of the lineup. Their in-house options to play left field (e.g. Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase) have limited MLB experience.

The Jays need at least one everyday outfielder. There’s an argument that they need to acquire regulars in both corners to push Springer into a limited role. Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are the biggest remaining bats in the free agent outfield class. Both players declined qualifying offers. Jurickson Profar, who did not receive the QO, is coming off a fantastic season. Max Kepler, Jesse Winker and Austin Hays are among potential rebound candidates.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Nick Pivetta

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The Blue Jays are involved in the market for Nick Pivetta, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re one of a handful of teams that has been linked to the 6’5″ righty. The Reds, Mets and incumbent Red Sox have also been linked to Pivetta this offseason.

Pivetta, who is a native of British Columbia, is one of the better unsigned starting pitchers. He’s one of three pitchers — alongside Corbin Burnes and Sean Manaea — who remain free agents after declining the qualifying offer. There was some surprise that the Red Sox risked the $21.05MM QO, but that proved a prescient decision in what has been a bullish market for starting pitching.

The 31-year-old (32 in February) has been an innings eater in the middle of the Boston rotation for the past few seasons. Pivetta struggled early in the 2023 campaign and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he excelled late in the year to earn his way back to the starting five. He took the ball 27 times this past season, working to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings. Pivetta missed some time early in the year with a flexor strain. That was the first non-virus injured list stint of his MLB career, though, and he returned without issue by the middle of May.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season. His run prevention has landed in the low 4.00s in consecutive seasons, and he carries a 4.09 mark in 288 1/3 frames since the start of 2023. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk rates have always been more intriguing than the ERA might suggest. He has punched out 30% of opponents with a solid 7.3% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by Pivetta’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in all seven seasons of his MLB career.

There’s value in the durability and solid run prevention marks that Pivetta has provided the Red Sox. Some teams could still view him as a potential #2 or high-end #3 starter based on the stuff and swing-and-miss ability, feeling they can make some tweaks to help him more effectively stay off barrels. Speculatively speaking, his camp could look to beat the three years and $67MM which Luis Severino recently secured from the Athletics.

The Jays have shown some level of interest in virtually every free agent of note. They’ve yet to pull off an especially significant free agent move. Their only signing is a two-year, $15MM deal to bring back reliever Yimi García. Toronto took on the final five years and $97.5MM on Andrés Giménez’s contract via trade with the Guardians at the Winter Meetings. That’s a significant expenditure, but the front office surely continues to juggle multiple free agent pursuits.

Toronto is among the three teams (alongside Boston and San Francisco) most frequently mentioned as landing spots for Burnes. They’re certainly not going to bring in Burnes and Pivetta, so the latter is potentially a fallback target who’d allow them to devote more money into one or two lineup upgrades. The Jays have looked for a starter to join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis in the Opening Day rotation. That’d allow them to use Yariel Rodríguez in relief, indirectly upgrading a bullpen that remains a huge weakness despite the García pickup.

The Blue Jays are believed to have cut their payroll narrowly below the luxury tax threshold at the end of the ’24 season. That reduces the penalty they’d pay to sign Pivetta or any other free agent who rejected the QO. Toronto would forfeit its second-highest pick of the 2025 draft plus $500K from the ’26 bonus allotment for international amateur players.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez

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The thinking that Teoscar Hernandez would sign early in the offseason or in the immediate aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision has not played out as such. The 32-year-old slugger remains unsigned, reportedly juggling interest from at least the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees to this point in the winter. Hernandez and the incumbent Dodgers have been unable to bridge a gap in Hernandez’s asking price and the team’s offer. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com adds further context, reporting that Hernandez is seeking a three-year deal that’ll guarantee him $22-24MM annually.

A three-year deal in $66-72MM range would generally dovetail with expectations. Hernandez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, already stated earlier in the offseason that Hernandez had been seeking three years last offseason when they pivoted and took a one-year deal in Los Angeles. A three-year deal on the heels of the slugger’s rebound campaign in L.A. seemed (and still seems) reasonable, even though he’s now headed into his age-32 season after rejecting a qualifying offer (and thus attaching himself to draft pick compensation). That $22-24MM range would align with last year’s $23MM salary (though some of that was deferred, dinging the net present value a bit).

With Soto off the board, Hernandez and fellow slugger Anthony Santander are the top corner outfield bats on the free agent market. Santander is two years younger but is also reportedly seeking a five-year deal after swatting 44 homers for the Orioles in 2024. Both players rejected QOs. Hernandez is the more affordable of the two but is also older and more strikeout-prone. The presence of Cody Bellinger on the trade market and the recent emergence of the now-traded Kyle Tucker might’ve combined to slow things down for Hernandez’s market, speculatively speaking.

Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 slash with a career-high 33 home runs last season before going on to hit .250/.352/.417 in postseason play. His 28.8% strikeout rate was an improvement over his 31.1% mark from 2023 but still sat about six percentage points higher than league average. His 8.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career but fell right in line with the 8.2% league average. At this point, teams can expect plus power, a below-average walk rate and more strikeouts than they’d prefer from Hernandez. He drew well below-average marks for his defense, but Hernandez has plus speed and above-average arm strength, per Statcast, so a team might think there’s enough raw talent to coax some better performance out of him.

The defensive concerns do make a multi-year reunion with the Dodgers a potentially problematic pairing, however. Hernandez has said he hopes to return — and the Dodgers are clearly open to a reunion. Beating the rest of the market when Hernandez is already 32 and there’s no DH opportunity thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani could make a long-term arrangement worrisome for Los Angeles in a way that’s not the case with other Hernandez suitors.

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