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Blue Jays Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t going anywhere. The Blue Jays have formally announced a 14-year contract extension for their superstar first baseman, one that guarantees the four-time All-Star a whopping $500MM from 2026-39. He’d previously been slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season. The contract does not contain any deferred money or opt-out opportunities but does provide Guerrero with a full no-trade clause, setting the stage for him to spend his entire career in Toronto. Guerrero is represented by PRIME.

Notably, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the $500MM will come in the form of a whopping $325MM signing bonus, paid out in annual installments over his contract’s 14-year term, with the remaining $175MM constituting his salary. That doesn’t change the luxury-tax picture for the Blue Jays, but it does provide tax benefits to Guerrero. Signing bonuses are taxed based on a player’s official residence, and although Guerrero plays his home games in Toronto, he’s legally a Florida resident, where there’s no state income tax. Further, Rosenthal rightly points out that signing bonuses are paid out even in the event of a potential labor stoppage, whereas player salaries could be withheld or prorated. Effectively, the mammoth signing bonus provides Guerrero an avenue and safety net to take home as much of that mammoth guarantee as possible.

It’s the second-largest deal in MLB history by measure of net present value, trailing only Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765MM contract with the Mets. While Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers was originally reported as a historic 10-year, $700MM deal, the overwhelming slate of deferred money — $68MM annually — knocked the contract’s present-day value down to between $438MM and $461MM. Guerrero’s $35.714MM average annual value is technically the 12th-largest AAV in baseball history, although once factoring in deferrals in the contracts of Alex Bregman and Blake Snell, Guerrero could sneak into the top 10 with that hefty mark.

Guerrero rather famously set a deadline of the start of spring training that came and went without a deal. He left the door cracked for an agreement, however, stating that while he no longer planned to participate in back-and-forth negotiations, he’d listen to any offers the team presented and leave any contract talk to his agents. In the aftermath of that soft deadline, specifics regarding Guerrero’s asking price and a new, stronger offer from the Blue Jays came to light.

It’s not entirely uncommon for contract talks to continue beyond self-imposed deadlines if the sides are close enough, with Garrett Crochet standing as a notable recent example of a player who set a deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks before ultimately signing after said deadline had passed. Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Brandon Pfaadt, and Kristian Campbell are among the other players to have signed extensions since the season began who presumably opened negotiations with their clubs during spring training.

Both previous talks between the sides and reports regarding the latest framework have centered around a 14-year pact. That’s a reflection of Guerrero’s youth, as he only just turned 26 years old last month. It’s a somewhat similar situation to that of Soto, who hit free agency right around his 26th birthday. Given his youth and talent, he was able to parlay a frenzied free agency into a record-shattering 15-year deal worth $765MM.

Prior to Soto moving the goalposts, the reported $500MM value of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discussing would have been a record-breaking deal. As already noted, Ohtani’s ten-year deal is valued quite differently when weighing for deferred money; the MLBPA pegs his net-present annual value at $43.78MM, while the league itself posits a $46.06MM number. Ballparking the guarantee around $450MM was still a record at the time, with Mookie Betts and his $365MM holding the previous top guarantee. Ohtani’s overall guarantee and AAV both fell to a distant second with the Soto deal, and now Guerrero can now lay claim to passing him as well, given the lack of deferred money in his half-billion-dollar guarantee.

Guerrero’s track record isn’t quite as elite as that of Soto, who is in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are excellent and he’s only a year older. When Guerrero is at his best, he’s the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability.

For the Jays, Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for a long time. After the club’s postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a quick rebuild period that saw them post losing records for the next three years. As such, many fans rested their hopes on an emerging core headlined by young prospects like Guerrero and Bo Bichette.

Guerrero’s initial major league work was good but not great, though it came at an age when most prospects are still playing in college or in the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than league average at the plate. To be holding his own in the big leagues during his age-20 and -21 seasons was still a notable accomplishment, even if he wasn’t immediately playing at All-Star levels.

Any doubts about Guerrero’s ability to reach the ceiling he flashed as a prospect were quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 home runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and only struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have won the American League Most Valuable Player award that year, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani. Instead, he finished runner-up.

Guerrero couldn’t quite carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his next two seasons. He hit a combined .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. While that’s still strong production, it’s obviously a drop from his 2021 campaign, and 2023 in particular cast him as closer to pedestrian than superstar as he posted a 118 wRC+ with just 1.3 fWAR. Fortunately, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked things back up last year, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and finishing sixth in a crowded AL MVP field.

Taken in totality, the four years beginning with Guerrero’s 2021 breakout saw him produce a .293/.370/.517 batting line with a 10.2% walk rate and just a 15.2% strikeout rate. That’s 45% better than league-average after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. And, as Guerrero’s minuscule strikeout rate indicates, he’s hardly just a one-dimensional slugger. He has some of the game’s best contact skills and pitch recognition, and he consistently delivers elite rankings in batted-ball metrics like exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

That’s not to say that there is no risk. Despite a 2022 Gold Glove Award, Guerrero’s defense is generally viewed as questionable and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. On any kind of massive deal like this, the signing club probably knows it won’t look pristine all the way to the final season, as the Tigers and Angels could tell you about their deals for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. The Jays will be hoping that they get piles of value from Guerrero’s prime years, both in terms of on-field and off-field value, in order to ease the pain of his eventual decline phase.

Certainly, it would have been cheaper to extend Guerrero earlier in his career, as players generally gain earning power as they get closer to free agency. However, Guerrero’s oscillating results perhaps gave the Jays pause about making a significant commitment to him. From Guerrero’s perspective, he was an incredibly talented prospect who received a hefty signing bonus and quickly put himself on track to reach free agency at such a young age. That gave him ample incentive to bet on himself, which presumably made finding a price amenable to both sides rather challenging.

The stars have aligned recently. Guerrero’s 2024 season seemed to prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Meanwhile, the Jays have attempted to secure mega deals with other players and fallen short. They were heavily tied to Ohtani, Soto, Roki Sasaki and plenty of other players who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, but none on those pursuits panned out. Prior to today’s extension of Guerrero, the largest deal in franchise history was George Springer’s $150MM guarantee on a six-year pact, which is now more than four years old. With president/CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins both nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been suggested they are under pressure for a big public relations victory.

The inability to close deals with marquee free agents like Soto, Ohtani and Corbin Burnes (among others) left the Jays with plenty of future payroll space to commit to Guerrero. Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Green are all free agents at season’s end. After 2026, Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho are slated to hit the open market. José Berríos is under contract through 2028, but has an opt-out after 2026. Anthony Santander will have an opt-out chance after 2027. Andrés Giménez and Alejandro Kirk could be the two players making notable money still on the team by 2028 if those opt-out clauses are exercised, and Guerrero is the only player on the books beyond 2030.

The Guerrero extension takes the projected top free agent off next year’s market, leaving Kyle Tucker as the clear top bat available. Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami will reportedly be posted ahead of his age-26 season, adding an interesting and likely very expensive wild card to the position-player market.

On the pitching side, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Michael King will be some of the most attractive names. That will be a tough development for fans of other clubs but it could be a huge benefit to those other free agents, especially Tucker, who will become the uncontested best free agent hitter available in a market that looks increasingly starved for impact offense without Guerrero at the top.

Dominican journalist Mike Rodriguez first broke the news that the two sides were closing in on a deal worth at least $500MM. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added that it was over a term of 14 years. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported that an agreement was in place and that there were no deferrals, while his colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith added that the contract did not contain opt-out language. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Guerrero’s no-trade clause.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images.

Octavio Dotel Dies In Roof Collapse Tragedy

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Former major leaguer Octavio Dotel has died in a tragic accident, Major League Baseball confirmed. The news was first reported by multiple outlets in the Dominican Republic, including Diario Libre. The roof of the Jet Set club in Santo Domingo collapsed in the early hours of Tuesday morning. As of Tuesday night, at least 98 people have lost their lives while nearly 200 more were injured, according to The Associated Press. Dotel was 51 years old.

Exact details of the tragic situation are difficult to pin down, but it appears hundreds of people were in the venue for a concert when the collapse happened. Dozens of people have been pulled out alive but many have died and the figures are likely to change. Dotel was reportedly trapped for about 11 hours before being rescued and initially survived, but was declared dead after being taken to a hospital.

Dotel was well known to baseball fans because he pitched in the majors for over a decade and bounced around to various teams. He made his major league debut with the Mets in 1999, working in a swing role. He was traded to the Astros ahead of the 2000 season and continued to work both out of the rotation and the bullpen for a while.

He eventually moved into a primary relief role and had more success. Though his earned run average was over 5.00 in both 1999 and 2000, he posted a 2.66 ERA in 2001. He tossed 105 innings over 61 appearances, only four of those being starts.

He continued working as a solid reliever for years after that, bouncing to the Athletics, Yankees, Royals, Braves, White Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Tigers. He finished his career with a 3.78 ERA in 758 games. He recorded 109 saves and 127 holds. He won the World Series with the Cardinals in 2011. He was a part of a combined no-hitter with the Astros in 2003. He retired in 2014.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our deepest condolences to Dotel’s family, friends and fans, as well as the hundreds of others who have been impacted by this awful event.

Photo courtesy of Kelley L Cox, Imagn Images

Poll: Will Bo Bichette Stay In Toronto?

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The big news around baseball this week is superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that will keep him with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years. While the deal is primarily notable because of Guerrero himself being one of the brightest young stars in the game whose free agency had long been anticipated by fans around the league, it’s also the most firm statement yet from the Blue Jays that they fully intend to continue attempting to compete even amid an increasingly difficult AL East division.

Entering Spring Training, the club had a number of key players set to come off the books within the next few seasons. That’s still the case for the majority of those players, with important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market within the next two seasons. With that being said, the club’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander combine with their recent extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to give the club a talented nucleus of position players to build a new iteration of the club around with pre-arb and early arbitration players like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner helping to further build out that foundation.

With nearly two full seasons until Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart for free agency, it’s not entirely clear what the Jays’ needs will look like by the time that comes around. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Green come November will surely need to be addressed, but most teams need pitching every winter and replacing those players should be fairly straightforward. With Guerrero signed, that leaves the most pertinent question facing Toronto at this point as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport when he came up to the majors back in 2019 and has spent most of his career paired with Guerrero as one of the club’s two up-and-coming stars.

While Bichette has never had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted during the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his body of work in the majors. In 46 games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a big impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in just 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto during the shortened 2020 season saw him come down to Earth just a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, but that level of production proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons saw him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.

From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for 22nd in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with top infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between those strong numbers and his relative youth, Bichette seemed certain to be ticketed for a large payday with the only question being whether it would come in Toronto or elsewhere. Unfortunately, the 2024 season threw all of that completely off the rails. Not only was Bichette limited to just 81 games last year due to multiple calf strains and surgery on his middle finger, but he also struggled badly in the games he was healthy enough to partake in. In 336 trips to the plate last year, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).

A look under the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and walk rates were both as good as they’d ever been last year, but he was completely sapped of his power. He hit just four home runs after regularly flashing 25-to-30 homer power in previous years. His .303 xwOBA suggested that he was getting somewhat unlucky in terms of batted ball luck, and that likely contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. While a batting average closer to his xBA of .255 would have surely helped his overall production look a bit more robust, the expected numbers aren’t all that kind in the power department. His xSLG was just .375, which while better than his actual production last season, would’ve been well below average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s in large part thanks to a massive drop-off in barrel rate. Bichette barreled up just 4.4% of his batted balls last year, less than half of his career norm across the rest of his career.

A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his best years, Bichette’s value is so tied to his bat that last season’s struggles made it difficult to imagine him finding the star-level contract in free agency without a big bounceback in the 2025 campaign. Despite both Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as a whole failing to meet expectations last year, Toronto opted not to trade him ahead of his final year under team control, betting on him to regain his form this season. There’s still a long way to go in this season, but the early returns are looking good on that decision. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line entering play today is still pedestrian but nonetheless a big improvement over last year, and more importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel rate, 46.3% Hard-Hit rate) in a way that mostly aligns with his career norms.

While it’s certainly good news for both Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop appears to be back to posting quality offensive numbers, what that means for his future is uncertain. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the two players share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first options at a premium defensive position that could make them very attractive in free agency, but pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns where they looked like below-replacement level talents. During the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was limited to a short-term deal by the market, though his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a healthy AAV and multiple opt-out opportunities. Bellinger was marketing his age-28 season that winter just like Bichette would be come November, though a distinct lack of high-end positional talent in free agency this winter (outside of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) could allow Bichette to find a stronger market.

Still, that market uncertainty could be part of why the Jays have not broached the possibility of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette told reporters back in February that the sides hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the table”  for him from the Blue Jays in terms of an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to remain in Toronto, citing a desire to play for a single organization throughout his entire career and continue his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself healthy and effective again this year, that could make plenty of sense for a Blue Jays club that will need more offensive firepower than it got last year even after adding Santander to the mix. On the other hand, the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) before even considering arbitration-level contracts for players like Varsho and Clement.

That could make adding another big salary to the books difficult for the Blue Jays to stomach, and the club has seemingly set itself up to better stomach the loss of Bichette by trading for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has played the vast majority of his big league games at second base, but he has shortstop experience and is regarded as perhaps the best defensive second baseman in the entire sport, suggesting he should have little trouble sliding over to the left side of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre defense at short, Gimenez could actually prove to be an upgrade at the position in terms of his glove.

That would then mean needing to replace Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat in the lineup, however. A big season from Wagner this year could make that possible to do internally. Other internal options who could help out include Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. In terms of external options, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as possibilities, depending on some opt-out decisions.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free agency? And, if so, will he be playing in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Will Bo Bichette Be A Blue Jay In 2026?
No, he'll sign elsewhere in free agency. 64.27% (3,417 votes)
Yes, and they'll extend him before he reaches free agency. 24.30% (1,292 votes)
Yes, they'll re-sign him as a free agent this winter. 11.44% (608 votes)
Total Votes: 5,317

Richard Lovelady Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Lovelady has opted to reject the outright assignment and become a free agent, according to his MLB.com profile page.

APRIL 4: The Blue Jays have sent left-hander Richard Lovelady outright to Triple-A Buffalo, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment a few days ago.

Lovelady, 29, has the right to elect free agency but it’s unclear if he will do so. Players with at least three years of major league service time, such as Lovelady, have that right. However, a player needs at least five years of service in order to both elect free agency and retain whatever money is still owed to him on his contract. Lovelady is just barely over the three-year line, meaning he’d have to walk away from his current contract if he heads to the open market.

It’s unclear what sort of financial decision he’s weighing. He signed a minor league deal with the Jays in the winter and was added to the 40-man prior to Opening Day. His major league salary on that deal hasn’t been publicly reported.

If he reports to Buffalo, he’ll give the Jays some non-roster depth. His brief time on their major league roster didn’t go well, as he allowed four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. But his career track record is better than that. Overall, he has 101 innings in the majors with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. Both of those numbers are close to league averages but his 50.2% ground ball rate is a few ticks better than par.

This has all resulted in a 5.26 earned run average but perhaps with some bad luck in there. His .301 batting average on balls in play and 65% strand rate are both on the unfortunate side of normal. That’s perhaps why his 4.32 FIP and 4.04 SIERA look far nicer than his ERA.

The Jays currently have Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty as the lefties in their bullpen. Josh Walker is on the 40-man but on optional assignment. As the season rolls along, injuries will pop up or the bullpen will get taxed during busy parts of the schedule. If Lovelady accepts his assignment and he performs well in Buffalo, the Jays could call him back up at some point. If he decides to head to free agency, he will likely be limited to minor league offers from other clubs.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers and Tigers have been voted as the favorites to win their respective divisions. The final division left to cover in this series is the AL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

New York Yankees (94-68)

The reigning league champion can never be counted out as a contender for their division, and that’s certainly true when it comes to a franchise with as strong of a history as the Yankees. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue the club is better on paper today than it was a year ago. 2024’s club was largely built around the presence of three superstars: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. While Judge is still crushing baseballs in the Bronx as reliably as ever, Soto departed for Queens on a massive $765MM pact over the winter while Cole underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss the entire 2025 season. The losses of Soto and Cole are a major blow to the club’s lineup and rotation, and the latter has been further dented by injuries suffered by Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil while the former is exacerbated by the absence of Giancarlo Stanton.

That’s not to say the club has no reasons for optimism, however. All of Stanton, Gil, and Schmidt could return at some point during the first half, with Schmidt in particular likely to be back in the rotation later this month. The addition of star southpaw Max Fried offers the club a suitable stand-in ace for Cole this season even after a somewhat middling debut in pinstripes, while an offensive nucleus of Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should score plenty of runs even without Soto, especially if Goldschmidt can turn back the clock during his age-37 season. That’s before even mentioning their elite bullpen, which was top three in the AL last year even before this winter’s upgrade from Clay Holmes to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Even with the loss of Soto and their many early season injuries, the Yankees cannot be ruled out to repeat at the top of the division.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

After a second consecutive playoff appearance with zero wins to show for it, some fans in Baltimore are starting to get antsy. New owner David Rubenstein’s first offseason at the helm of the club came with big expectations that the club would step away from the frugality of recent years and commit more strongly to contention, and in some ways that did happen. The club replaced Anthony Santander’s power in the lineup by bringing in Tyler O’Neill on the first multi-year guarantee the club has made since Mike Elias took over baseball operations, and went about upgrading an already-strong offense in other ways by bringing in Gary Sanchez and Ramon Laureano. Considering the Orioles already have a phenomenal offensive nucleus built around players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, those upgrades should give them among the most fearsome lineups in the sport.

That aggressiveness in bolstering the offense was not matched on the pitching side of things, however. Staff ace Corbin Burnes was allowed to depart for Arizona, and his replacements in the rotation are a pair of aging veterans in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. While both are decorated pitchers who could offer strong mid-rotation production, the loss of Burnes puts a great deal of pressure on Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list) to perform in front-of-the-rotation roles. The possible return of Kyle Bradish later this season from UCL surgery should help things, but even that would come with question marks due to a year-long layoff. The bullpen is in better shape, fortunately, with closer Felix Bautista back from his own UCL surgery and Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez among the other late inning options. If the club’s rotation can hold up and avoid further injuries, the Orioles should have as good of a shot as anyone at the AL East crown this year.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

The AL East club with by far the biggest offseason, the Red Sox made significant splashes this winter when they traded for (and, more recently, extended) ace southpaw Garrett Crochet before bringing in third baseman Alex Bregman on a three-year, opt-out laden deal. Both of those moves are likely to transform last year’s middling club into true contenders, giving Boston an ace-caliber arm ahead of homegrown mid-rotation pieces like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello (not to mention offseason signing Walker Buehler) while allowing them to kick Rafael Devers’s lackluster glove off of third base and into a DH role. Those additions build on a solid group of talent already in place, with players like Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran standing as likely offensive contributors.

Perhaps even more important than this winter’s additions, however, is the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Kristian Campbell is already in the majors and emerging as a potential early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, with fellow top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer also expected to make their big league debuts at some point this year. All three are consensus top-15 prospects in the sport, with Anthony in particular being rated as the sport’s #1 prospect by a number of services. That sort of high-end prospect talent all arriving in the majors simultaneously is quite rare, and affords the club an exceptionally deep positional mix with plenty of potential impact. With that being said, the club does have one potential Achilles’ heel in the bullpen. After relying on an elite tandem of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to close out games last year, the Red Sox are now banking on a strong return from nearly two years away from the mound for Liam Hendriks and a resurgence from Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. If the club’s strong offense and solid rotation can overcome that questionable bullpen, however, they should be in strong position to return to the top of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

After suffering their first losing season in recent memory and selling at the trade deadline last year, the Rays avoided their annual winter of sell-side trades (the Jeffrey Springs deal notwithstanding) and actually made a handful of modest but potentially impactful additions this winter. Arguably the club’s two biggest weaknesses last season were catcher and shortstop, so the additions of Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim figure to go a long way to bring up the floor for the club as they try to get back on track. Jansen and Kim (when the latter returns from the IL) figure to be joined this year by the Rays’ usual suspects on offense with Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and trendy breakout pick Junior Caminero set to serve as anchors of the lineup. Outside of those names, however, the Rays are likely to need big performances from less established pieces like Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda in order to make noise in a crowded AL East.

Fortunately, whatever questions the Rays face on offense are largely avoided on the pitching side of things. The temporary loss of ace Shane McClanahan to open the season hurts the rotation, but the club still features a bevy of solid arms that includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Shane Baz. Each of those arms have the upside of at least a #4 starter, and Rasmussen in particular has flashed the sort of production that could front a rotation over the years. In the bullpen, meanwhile, the club will once again rely on Pete Fairbanks in the ninth inning with a group of interesting arms including Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge also in their bullpen mix. If the club’s offense can get going, it’s not hard to imagine that pitching talent carrying the Rays back into the playoffs this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

The Blue Jays failed in their offseason bid for Juan Soto, and similarly have seemingly come up short in their efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season of club control. That puts plenty of pressure on the Jays to return from the basement of the AL East and compete in what could be their superstar’s last season in town, and Toronto brass answered that pressure by bringing in some notable reinforcements this winter. Anthony Santander offers the sort of big bat to protect Guerrero in the lineup that the Jays lacked last year, Andres Gimenez should greatly improve the club’s defense, Jeff Hoffman looks like a strong replacement for Jordan Romano in the ninth inning, and Max Scherzer (when he returns from the IL) should offer quality innings to a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi last summer.

Even with solid additions like those, however, a lot needs to go right for the Jays if they’re going to get to the top of the AL East this year. Perhaps the most important would be a return to form for Bo Bichette, who endured the worst season of his career last year. A lineup featuring Bichette at his best alongside Guerrero and Santander would go a long way to making this club look like a playoff team, as would a resurgence from veteran righty Kevin Gausman, who took a step back from his previous ace-level seasons with the Blue Jays last year. A strong year on offense from franchise catcher Alejandro Kirk and a repeat of Bowden Francis’s excellent rookie campaign could also serve as X-factors that help the club stay competitive this year.

__________________________________________

With all five clubs making a legitimate effort to compete this year, who will come out on top? Will the Yankees reign supreme once again despite their losses, or will they be successfully challenged by the young, up-and-coming Orioles despite a middling rotation? Can the Red Sox ride their splashy signings and top prospects to the postseason, or will a team like the Rays or even the Blue Jays surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Win The AL East?
New York Yankees 34.70% (4,289 votes)
Boston Red Sox 27.97% (3,458 votes)
Baltimore Orioles 19.61% (2,424 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 12.72% (1,573 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 5.00% (618 votes)
Total Votes: 12,362

Blue Jays Release Zach Pop

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The Blue Jays released reliever Zach Pop after designating him for assignment last week, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Assuming he clears release waivers, he’ll become a free agent.

Pop lost his 40-man roster spot as part of the Opening Day shuffle. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling noted in mid-March that Pop had come down with elbow inflammation during Spring Training and would have begun the regular season on the injured list. Injured players cannot be placed on outright waivers, so the DFA meant he’d be released unless the Jays found a trade partner.

The Canadian-born righty joined the Jays at the 2022 deadline in a trade with Miami. He turned in a 1.89 ERA in 17 appearances down the stretch. While he made a strong first impression, Pop has struggled over the last two years. He gave up 11 runs in 13 2/3 innings in 2023 and was tagged for a 5.59 ERA over a career-high 58 appearances last season. Pop got ground-balls at a strong 54.6% clip but only managed a 15.8% strikeout rate. When opponents were able to elevate the ball, they found success. He surrendered nine homers in 48 1/3 frames — a rate of 1.68 longballs per nine innings.

Pop had made seven Spring Training appearances before the elbow issue. He allowed five runs (four earned) across 6 2/3 innings despite eight strikeouts. He wasn’t expected to face a long-term absence, as imaging didn’t reveal any structural issues. He should find interest on a minor league deal once he’s healthy.

MLBTR Podcast: Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Max Scherzer Receives Cortisone Injection To Treat Thumb Injury

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Max Scherzer received a cortisone shot to treat the inflammation in his right thumb, the future Hall of Famer told reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). The Jays will have a better idea of when he could return after they see how he responds.

Scherzer’s thumb has bothered him back to last summer, when it was linked to some kind of nerve problem in his hand. The injury resurfaced this spring. Scherzer opened the season on the active roster but departed his first start in a Jays’ uniform after three innings and 45 pitches because of lat discomfort. The three-time Cy Young winner said postgame that the thumb was the cause of his other issues. “My arm is making adjustments because of that. That’s a recipe for disaster,” he told reporters on Saturday.

The Jays placed Scherzer on the injured list the next day. It’s a frustrating situation for the righty. Scherzer acknowledged on Tuesday that he has had conversations with doctors about the potential for surgery, but he said they’re “not even close to that” scenario right now (via Hazel Mae). He added that he’s hopeful he can begin playing catch again as soon as Friday.

Toronto has an opening in their rotation around Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. It initially seemed that Yariel Rodríguez would step into the starting five after beginning the season in the bullpen. Rodríguez has continued working in a leverage role since Scherzer’s injury. He fired a scoreless inning to earn a hold on Sunday. He came on tonight in relief of Berríos and tossed another inning (allowing one run) to pick up his second hold.

The Jays list left-hander Easton Lucas as their probable starter for tomorrow’s series finale against the Nationals. They’ll push Gausman to Friday, giving him six days rest early in the season. They’re off on Thursday but will begin a stretch of 13 consecutive game days between April 4-16. They’ll probably want a fifth starter by the middle of next week.

Tomorrow’s start will be the first in the big leagues for the 28-year-old Lucas. He has 18 1/3 career innings across 14 relief appearances between the A’s, Tigers and Jays. Lucas worked out of the bullpen for all but four of his 38 Triple-A outings last year. He combined for an impressive 2.75 earned run average with a 26.2% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 innings. Lucas worked mostly 1-2 inning stints, but he made a five-inning start during his final Triple-A appearance. He topped out at 2 2/3 frames in a game in Spring Training, so they’ll likely lean heavily on the bullpen behind him tomorrow. Rodríguez, Jake Bloss and non-roster veteran Eric Lauer are alternatives if the Jays want to turn to a more traditional fifth starter next week.

Astros Acquire Nick Robertson

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The Blue Jays announced that they have traded right-hander Nick Robertson, who was designated for assignment last week, to the Astros. In exchange, minor league righty Edinson Batista heads to the Jays. To open a 40-man spot for Robertson, the Astros transferred Cristian Javier to the 60-day injured list, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome adds that Robertson will report to Triple-A Sugar Land.

Robertson, 26, has a fairly limited major league track record. Over the past two years, he has thrown 35 2/3 innings for the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals and Blue Jays. He has a 5.30 earned run average in that sample but his 24.8% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average, while his 42.2% ground ball rate is right around par.

His minor league work wasn’t great last year but was quite strong before that. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 168 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.80 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. But last year, he posted a 6.87 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate in 36 2/3 Triple-A innings.

His profile has been enough to garner interest from several clubs. He was flipped from Los Angeles to Boston in the July 2023 trade that sent Enrique Hernández to the Dodgers, then the Sox sent him to the Cards in the December 2023 deal that sent Tyler O’Neill to Fenway. St. Louis put him on waivers in September, with the Jays putting in a claim and holding him through the offseason. But they needed to open some 40-man spots as they set their Opening Day roster and bumped Robertson off.

Robertson still has an option season remaining, so the Astros can keep him in Sugar Land to see if he can put 2024 behind him. They had some 40-man roster spots to burn due to several injuries. Javier had Tommy John surgery in June of last year and won’t be an option until the second half of the season even in a best-case scenario.

Presumably, several clubs were interested in adding Robertson as some optionable depth, so the Astros had to part with a minor leaguer in order to jump the waiver queue. Batista, 23 in May, was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. He hasn’t yet risen higher than the High-A level, showing some ability to get strikeouts and ground balls but also with control issues. Since the start of 2021, he has 277 1/3 innings pitched across various minor league levels with a 4.87 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate. He has worked both out of the rotation and the bullpen.

In June of 2024, Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs gave Batista an honorable mention on their list of the top prospects in the Astros’ system, describing him as “an advanced, athletic, undersized depth starter type.”

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Place Max Scherzer On Injured List

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March 30: The Jays announced today that Scherzer is indeed being placed on the 15-day injured list, with the diagnosis of right thumb inflammation. Left-hander Easton Lucas was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move. Per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet, Schneider told reporters that Scherzer is headed to see a hand specialist to find out more about his thumb injury. Either Rodriguez or Lucas appears likely to join the rotation in Scherzer’s stead.

March 29: Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer exited his first start as a member of the Blue Jays after just 45 pitches, and Toronto later announced that his departure was due to soreness in his right lat.

As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Scherzer battled a thumb issue throughout Spring Training that appeared to be connected to the nerve issue that limited the veteran with the Rangers last season. Throughout camp, Matheson relays that Scherzer indicated that pitching through the thumb issue increased the risk of other injury issues and specifically highlighted his shoulder as a possible area of concern. Scherzer went on to confirm that the issue is related to his thumb, telling reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that after three innings he told manager John Schneider that there was “imminent danger” of a more serious injury if he continued to pitch.

While Scherzer noted that he and the team’s doctors have not yet figured out next steps, it sounds as though a trip to the injured list is likely in the right-hander’s future. As relayed by Matheson, Scherzer at the very least won’t be making his next scheduled start. He was next in line for a start on April 4 against the Mets in New York, though his status for games beyond that has not yet been announced. The veteran noted that he’ll need to get the thumb issue “to 100%” before he pitches again, and expressed frustration over the circumstances while emphasizing the importance of getting his thumb right.

“My arm is making adjustments because of that [thumb injury],” Scherzer said, as relayed by Matheson. “That’s a recipe for disaster.”

With an off-day scheduled for April 3, the Blue Jays won’t need another starter until April 8. That gives Scherzer just over a week to get right before he’d next be needed in the rotation, but it seems possible that the issue will take longer to resolve than that. Should Scherzer require a trip to the IL, Yariel Rodriguez could step into the rotation from the bullpen or the club could consider turning the vacant spot in the rotation over to youngster Jake Bloss. It seems likely the exact length of Scherzer’s absence won’t be available for at least a few days, though it’s possible a decision about the injured list could come early next week given that IL stints can be backdated a maximum of just three days.

Regardless of how long Scherzer ends up missing, the news has the potential to be a huge blow for a Blue Jays club that is attempting to claw its way out of fifth place in a deep AL East division to make it back to the postseason in what could be the final year franchise fixtures Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette spend in Toronto. Scherzer was one of the club’s most notable additions this winter alongside second baseman Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander, and his addition was made in the hope that he could deepen a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi at the 2024 trade deadline.

While the righty has not been the same pitcher who finished top 5 in his league’s Cy Young award voting in seven consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2019 in recent years, he still sports a solid 3.81 ERA over his last 36 starts and looked like a front of the rotation arm as recently as 2022. That was enough to sell the Blue Jays on the idea the veteran could upgrade their rotation as long as he managed to stay healthy, but so far his nagging thumb issue has made that a challenge. After largely avoiding the injured list throughout the vast majority of his career, Scherzer has made just 59 starts over the past three seasons with the Mets and Rangers and now appears on track to miss more time for the Jays.

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