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Daulton Varsho To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Daulton Varsho will undergo surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury in his right shoulder, he tells Hazel Mae (X link). Toronto manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat (relayed on X by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) that the Jays will have a clearer timeline once Varsho completes the procedure. Schneier didn’t rule out the possibility that the rehab process carries into next year’s Spring Training.

That brings an early end to the outfielder’s second year in Toronto. Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 with 18 homers, 21 doubles and seven triples through 513 plate appearances. That’s league average offensive production, by measure of wRC+, with Varsho’s power helping to offset the poor on-base mark. It’s a better year than he had in 2023, when he hit .220/.285/.389 despite offense being higher around the league than it has been this season.

Varsho may not recapture the 27-homer form that he showed during his final season with the Diamondbacks. He can still be a very productive player even with league average offense. The former catcher has developed into one of the game’s premier defensive outfielders. Varsho had fantastic marks for his 672 innings of center field work and his 400+ frames in left field. Statcast has him tied for second among outfielders (behind Washington’s Jacob Young) in Outs Above Average. Defensive Runs Saved credited Varsho with an incredible 28 runs above average — not only the best in MLB but five runs clear of second-place Jarren Duran.

Those defensive metrics should earn Varsho his first Gold Glove. He’ll go into next season as Toronto’s everyday center fielder if he’s healthy. Any kind of offseason setback could put that in doubt, but for now, there’s no indication the Jays will need to look outside the organization for center field help.

Nathan Lukes, who has taken over in center, looks like a solid fourth outfielder. He’d be an option to pick up some early-season starts if Varsho falls behind schedule. George Springer has plenty of center field experience but he has only played one game there this season. As he enters his age-35 season, Springer seems firmly committed to right field.

Varsho is under team control for another two seasons. He made $5.65MM in his second of four years of arbitration. He’ll likely land somewhere in the $8-10MM range next year.

Blue Jays Claim Nick Robertson

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4:10pm: The Jays have now made it official, announcing that they have claimed Robertson and optioned him to Triple-A Buffalo. Infielder Will Wagner was placed on the 60-day injured list with left knee inflammation to open a 40-man roster spot. That also created an active roster spot for shortstop Bo Bichette, who has been reinstated from the 10-day IL, as expected. The Jays also placed outfielder Daulton Varsho on the 10-day IL with a right shoulder strain, retroactive to September 14, and recalled Steward Berroa in a corresponding move.

2:00pm: The Blue Jays have claimed right-hander Nick Robertson off waivers from the Angels, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams on X. The Halos had designated him for assignment a couple of days ago. The Jays have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make the claim official.

Robertson, 26, has a bit of major league experience with poor baseline results though more encouraging peripherals. He has pitched for the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cardinals over the past two seasons, with a 5.45 earned run average in 34 2/3 innings. His .386 batting average on balls in play and 65.1% strand rate are both on the unlucky side, while his 25.3% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate are both solid figures. His 4.12 FIP and 3.49 SIERA suggest he may be capable of posting better results than he has managed so far.

It’s a somewhat similar story in the minor leagues. From 2021 to the present, he has tossed 203 innings on the farm with a 4.39 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, .326 BABIP, 66.6% strand rate and 4.01 FIP.

Despite the runs crossing the board, teams have clearly been intrigued by the encouraging strikeout to walk ratios. The Red Sox acquired him from the Dodgers in last summer’s trade that sent Enrique Hernández to Los Angeles. Just a few months later, the Cardinals acquired him from the Sox as part of the December 2023 deal that sent Tyler O’Neill to Boston.

Robertson only got limited big league action with the Cards this year, tossing 12 1/3 innings. He struck out 26.9% of batters faced and only walked 3.8% of them, but gave up three homers in that limited time. That and a .364 BABIP led to an 85.9% strand rate and 4.38 ERA in that time. In the minors, he tossed 21 2/3 innings but had control problems, an oddity for him, posting an uncharacteristic 15.7% walk rate.

The Cards put him on waivers just over a month ago, with the Angels putting in a claim. He was sent to Triple-A Salt Lake and tossed 13 innings there, striking out 25.8% of batters faced with a 12.1% walk rate, improved control from his previous Triple-A stint but still a bit worse than average. A .438 BABIP and 58.6% strand rate were once again culprits in a small sample, leading to a 6.92 ERA but 4.30 FIP. The Angels put him back on waivers just over a month after claiming him with the Jays now swooping in, bringing Robertson to the same city as his hockey namesake.

Perhaps the Jays feel the results will even out in time or maybe they have a plan to limit the damage that hitters are doing against Robertson. They don’t need to commit a major league roster spot to him, as he will still have another option season remaining after this one. For now, they can get a close-up look at him and see if they can find a way to translate those strong peripherals into better results. If things work out, he has less than a year of service time and can be cheaply retained well into the future.

The Toronto bullpen was undone by injuries and underperformance earlier in the year, with the club then subtracting from the group by trading Yimi García, Trevor Richards and Nate Pearson prior to the deadline. To compensate for the many absences from trades and injuries, they have been taking fliers on all sorts of relievers, having acquired Ryan Burr, Tommy Nance, José Cuas, Joel Kuhnel, Luis Frías, Yerry Rodríguez, Easton Lucas, Dillon Tate, Emmanuel Ramírez, Brett de Geus and now Robertson in waiver claims or small trades. Some of those guys have since lost their roster spots but the club is clearly willing to turn over any stone as they attempt to find paydirt.

Blue Jays Outright Yerry Rodriguez

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Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Blue Jays and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com.

Rodriguez, 26, only saw a brief look in Toronto and struggled considerably in that time. The hard-throwing righty was tagged for nine runs (eight of them earned) on 10 hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 4 2/3 frames. He posted a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings with the Rangers prior to being acquired in a June trade that sent minor league righty Josh Mollerus to Texas. (Rodriguez had been designated for assignment in Texas as well, prior to that swap.)

This is the third season in which Rodriguez has logged at least some time in the majors, but he’s yet to find any success. He’s pitched 36 1/3 innings at the game’s top level and been torched for an 8.17 ERA. Rodriguez averages better than 96 mph on his heater and has shown a repeated ability to miss bats in the upper minors, but his bottom-line results have been suspect even at the Triple-A level. In parts of four seasons there, he’s totaled 156 innings with a 5.31 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate.

Rodriguez doesn’t have the major league service time or prior outright required to become a free agent immediately, but he can become a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Blue Jays Claim Tyler Heineman, Designate Brian Serven

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The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Red Sox. Boston had designated him for assignment a few days ago. Catcher Brian Serven has been designated for assignment by the Jays in a corresponding move.

Heineman, 33, clearly has some fans in the Toronto front office as this is his third stint with the club. He signed a minor league deal with the Jays going into 2022 and added to the club’s roster early that year, though he went to the Pirates on waivers in May of that season. In April of 2023, the Bucs designated Heineman for assignment and flipped him to the Jays for utility player Vinny Capra. That stint lasted until December of last year, when the Jays put him on waivers and lost him to the Mets.

The Mets later designated Heineman for assignment in January and flipped him to the Red Sox for cash. Heineman has served as an up-and-down depth catcher for the Sox this year, but perhaps became expendable by Boston acquiring Danny Jansen to bolster their catching depth, the same deal that opened some playing time behind the plate in Toronto.

Heineman has bounced around quite a bit in his career, never securing more than part-time work. He has appeared in five big league seasons but has just 286 plate appearances in 106 games over those. He has a combined batting line of .216/.297/.280 for a wRC+ of 66.

That’s not amazing production but his defense tends to be strong. Each of Statcast and Baseball Prospectus have given him positive grades for his framing, blocking and throwing. FanGraphs also grades him as a plus framer and lists a tally of six Defensive Runs Saved in his career.

It’s also possible that there’s a bit more in his bat, based on his numbers on the farm. From 2019 to the present, he’s hit .279/.372/.432 in the minors for a 107 wRC+, walking 11.3% of the time and striking out in just 17% of his plate appearances. That includes 51 games for Triple-A Worcester this year with Heineman posting a 14.1% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate, .252/.379/.403 batting line and 111 wRC+.

Perhaps the Jays see a path to Heineman providing plus defense and at least some adequate offense in the majors. He will finish this season with less than three years of service time, meaning the Jays can theoretically control him for four more years if he carves out a role as backup to Alejandro Kirk. However, Heineman will be out of options next year and will therefore be harder to keep on the roster.

To make room for Heineman, the Jays are risking losing Serven. He has appeared in 28 games for the Jays this year, mostly after the aforementioned Jansen trade opened up playing time alongside Kirk. Serven’s defensive metrics are roughly league average for the most part, but he has struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .159/.243/.222 and a 38 wRC+. When combined with his earlier time with the Rockies, he has now slashed .187/.247/.293 in 299 big league plate appearances for a 43 wRC+.

The Jays will put him on waivers in the coming days. It’s possible he could attract interest based on his minor league numbers. He has hit .243/.325/.435 for an 87 wRC+ dating back to 2021. That includes a .265/.390/.379 line and 111 wRC+ in 40 Triple-A games this year. He still has one option season remaining after this one and less than two years of service time.

Nori Aoki To Retire At NPB Season’s End

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Former big league outfielder and current member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows Nori Aoki is set to retire following the 2024 campaign, per an announcement from the Swallows yesterday (hat tip to The Yomiuri Shimbun). Aoki, 42, spent parts of six seasons in the majors in addition to a lengthy career in Japan.

Aoki’s career first began with the Swallows back in 2004 when he debuted at the age of 22. He made it into just ten games with Yakult that year, going 3-for-15 at the plate with a walk, a stolen base, and six strikeouts. That tiny sample size did nothing to suggest what Aoki would go on to do in his first full season with the club, however, as he slashed an excellent .344/.387/.417 in 144 games during the 2005 season, becoming just the second player in NPB history (after Ichiro Suzuki) to collect 200 hits in a single season.

He improved to even greater heights throughout his mid-20s, slashing 15-to-20 homer power to go along with fantastic contact and baserunning skills. As his plate discpline developed, he even began to walk more than he struck out, leading to a dominant stretch of seasons from 2007 to 2010 where he walked at a 10.6% clip against a minuscule 9.8% strikeout rate in addition to his aforementioned solid power and impressive base-stealing abilities, and even crossed the 200-hit barrier for a second time in 2010 to become the only NPB player in history to achieve the feat twice.

Given the excellence he had demonstrated throughout his time with the Swallows, it was hardly a surprise when he was quickly snapped up by the Brewers on a two-year deal after being posted for major league clubs prior to the 2012 season. In Milwaukee, Aoki was a slightly above average hitter with a solid .287/.355/.399 slash line. While he only hit a combined 18 home runs over his two seasons with the Brewers, he swiped 50 bags while hitting 57 doubles and 7 triples in that same period. That was a strong enough performance for Milwaukee brass to pick up Aoki’s club option for the 2014 season, but he did not last the offseason with the club and was swapped to the Royals in a deal that brought lefty Will Smith to the Brewers.

After departing the Brewers, Aoki wouldn’t stick around with an MLB club for more than a season at the time for the rest of his time in stateside ball. After acting as the regular right fielder in Kansas City for the club’s AL pennant-winning 2014 season, Aoki departed in free agency to sign with the Giants but was limited to just 93 games when he suffered a broken leg and a concussion in two separate hit-by-pitch incidents. Aoki then signed a one-year deal with the Mariners in 2016 but began to show some signs of decline, notably stealing only seven bases in sixteen attempts with the worst strikeout and walk numbers of his MLB career, though he did display his best power numbers since his rookie 2012 campaign with the Brewers.

Aoki’s final season in the big leagues came back in 2017 and saw him change uniforms several times. The veteran outfielder was claimed off waivers from the Mariners by the Astros during the 2016-17 offseason. Aoki struggled somewhat through 70 games with Houston, however, and ended up traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline that year alongside Teoscar Hernandez in a deal that brought Francisco Liriano to Houston. Aoki managed to catch fire down the stretch, however, and while his playing time was further split between the Blue Jays and Mets over the final two months of the season he slashed .281/.294/.594 for Toronto in August before slashing .284/.371/.373 in Queens that September.

Following the end of his MLB career, Aoki returned home to the Swallows and has played for the club in each of the past seven seasons. Now 42, the veteran is the league’s oldest active player and has collected more than 7,000 plate appearances with a .313/.392/.445 slash line in 1,713 NPB games. Between NPB and MLB play, Aoki has stepped up to the plate more than 10,000 times with 2,765 hits, 470 doubles, 51 triples, 179 homers and 279 stolen bases. We at MLBTR congratulate Aoki on a fine career and wish him all the best in his post-playing pursuits.

Blue Jays Claim Brett De Geus, Designate Yerry Rodriguez

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The Blue Jays have claimed righty Brett de Geus off waivers from the Marlins and designated fellow right-hander Yerry Rodriguez for assignment in a corresponding move, the team announced Thursday. De Geus has been optioned to Triple-A. Miami had designated him for assignment earlier this week.

De Geus, 26, only pitched 5 2/3 innings for the Marlins. He surrendered four runs on seven hits and two walks with four punchouts during that brief look. They’re the second team of the year for the former Rule 5 pick, as he also pitched 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball with Seattle. He’s previously pitched with both the Rangers and Diamondbacks but sports an ugly 7.17 ERA in 59 major league frames. De Geus has fanned a well below-average 16.9% of his opponents in the majors against a 9.7% walk rate that’s about one percentage point higher than the average reliever.

Though he hasn’t had success in the majors or in Triple-A (7.09 ERA in 47 innings), de Geus has gotten looks from several clubs over the years. Teams clearly like his raw stuff. He sits 96.4 mph with his sinker, per Statcast, and regularly posts huge ground-ball rates because of that power offering and its movement. That sinker has still generally been hit fairly hard, but he has more intriguing swing data against his slate of secondary offerings: a cutter, knuckle curve and seldom-used splitter. For now, he’ll add a fresh arm to a Blue Jays bullpen that has been a major weakness this season.

As for the 26-year-old Rodriguez, he’ll now head to waivers. As with de Geus in Miami, he saw only a brief look with the Jays — and it didn’t go well. In 4 2/3 innings for Toronto, Rodriguez was torched for nine runs (eight earned) on 10 hits and a pair of walks. He punched out five of the 27 batters he faced (18.5%).

The Jays acquired Rodriguez from the Rangers in exchange for minor league righty Josh Mollerus earlier this summer after Rodriguez had been designated by Texas. The hard-throwing righty missed nearly a month of action in Triple-A on the injured list following the trade, and in five healthy innings there he’s walked nine batters. Rodriguez’s high-end velocity could hold appeal to another club, but he’s had a rough year both in Triple-A and the big leagues — his third season with some major league time. Overall, Rodriguez owns an 8.17 ERA in 36 1/3 MLB frames.

Phillies Outright Nick Nelson

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September 11: Philadelphia announced this evening that Nelson again cleared waivers and was outrighted back to Lehigh Valley. There’s no indication that he’ll elect free agency, though he’ll be a minor league free agent at the end of the year unless the Phils call him back up.

September 7: The Phillies announced a quartet of roster moves in advance of their game with the Marlins, as catcher Aramis Garcia is joining the big league roster after his contract was selected from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.  Right-hander Jose Cuas is also joining the organization on a waiver claim from the Blue Jays and has been assigned to Triple-A.  In corresponding moves, Philadelphia designated right-hander Nick Nelson for assignment and placed infielder Rodolfo Castro on the 60-day injured list.  Castro was first called up from Triple-A before the IL placement, and it was already known that his season would be over after he tore a thumb ligament at the end of August.

Garcia is back in the Show to give the Phillies some extra catching depth since J.T. Realmuto is a little banged up.  Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that Realmuto will need “a couple of days” to rest up after fouling a ball off his knee in yesterday’s game, but the Phils don’t think Realmuto will need to visit the 10-day injured list.  Garcia and Garrett Stubbs will therefore handle catching duties for what the team hopes is just a short time until Realmuto is feeling better.

This is the second time this season that Cuas has changed teams via the waiver wire, as the Blue Jays claimed him off the Cubs’ roster back in June.  Cuas tossed three innings across four appearances for Toronto before the Jays DFA’ed him earlier this week, and the righty has a rough 7.71 ERA in 16 1/3 total innings this season with the Blue Jays and Cubs.  It has been a big step down from the 3.84 ERA Cuas posted over 103 innings with the Royals and Cubs during the 2022-23 seasons, and even that respectable number was undermined by some shaky secondary metrics.

Control problems have contributed to Cuas’ struggles in both the majors and minors this year, as he has a 6.67 ERA across 27 combined Triple-A frames.  Still missing a lot of bats despite those walks, the Phillies will take a look at Cuas and his plus sweeper, and Cuas will essentially replace Nelson as a depth arm.

Nelson was also designated for assignment last month before he cleared waivers and was outrighted to Lehigh Valley.  This prior outright means that Nelson can now decline another outright assignment in favor of free agency, if he is perhaps looking for a fresh start after three seasons with the Phillies.  He pitched 68 2/3 innings over 47 appearances with Philadelphia in 2022 but he has made just five MLB appearances since, totaling 10 2/3 frames at the big league level.  A couple of injuries contributed to some of Nelson’s missed time on the Phils’ roster, but the club seemed to just view Nelson as a depth pitcher, first as a starter in 2023 and then back to relief work this season.

MLBTR Podcast: Matt Chapman’s Extension, Star Prospect Promotions, Bichette’s Future In Toronto

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What the heck is up with the AL wild card?  Is Minnesota going to be able to hold off the Tigers, or anyone else?  K.C. made them look pedestrian and Detroit is, scarily enough, beginning to figure things out. (49:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Bichette On Future In Toronto, Long-Term Goals

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Throughout a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, the long-term future of stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a focal point. Rumors surrounding the pair of second-generation stars dominated headlines early in the summer as the Jays struggled, though they were somewhat quelled by GM Ross Atkins saying in early June that trading either Guerrero or Bichette “doesn’t make any sense” for the organization.

Even as their 2024 playoff hopes dwindled, the Jays only sold off impending free agents in advance of the trade deadline. Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards were all on the move. Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and others stayed put, with the clear indication being that the Blue Jays hope to retool this offseason and get back on track to contend in 2025.

Bichette and Guerrero are only controlled through the end of the 2025 season, which has brought continued speculation about the possibility of one or both players being moved this winter. Some of the Guerrero speculation has died down in the weeks since the trade deadline, though. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported after the deadline that the team still hoped to sign Guerrero long-term. Bassitt appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast and voiced his belief that even though Guerrero has not yet signed an extension, he indeed wants to be in Toronto long-term. Now, it appears Bichette’s teammates needn’t do any talking or speculating on his behalf. He’s publicly making it clear that he hopes to stay in Toronto alongside his longtime friend, Guerrero, and win a title as a Blue Jay.

“When I had time to think about what I want, basically, my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization,” Bichette tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “I’m 100 percent committed to doing whatever it takes to accomplish those things. That’s where I’m at.”

As Davidi explores at length in a piece Jays fans, in particular, will want to read in its entirety, that sets the 2024-25 offseason as one of the most pivotal in franchise history with regard to player personnel decisions. There’s nothing that says the Jays can’t let Guerrero and/or Bichette reach free agency, test the market, and then re-sign both players anyhow — but it’s certainly an easier and more controlled process when they’re not competing with an open market and other potential bidders for the 26-year-old Bichette and 25-year-old Guerrero.

From a payroll perspective, the Jays should be able to make dual extensions for the pair of former All-Stars work. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players signed beyond the 2026 season. Berrios, Rodriguez, the aforementioned Gausman and George Springer are the only four Blue Jays on guaranteed contract beyond the 2025 campaign. Toronto opened the 2024 season with a roughly $225MM payroll, currently sits at about $217MM after their deadline sell-off, and only has about $124.5MM in commitments for the ’25 season at the moment, per RosterResource.

That number notably does not include an arbitration raise for Guerrero — a figure that’ll likely shoot well beyond $25MM on the heels of his outstanding 2024 season. Arb raises for Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Dillon Tate, Alek Manoah and Ernie Clement could all be in the offing as well, though some members of that class will be non-tendered or traded.

Even if the bulk of that class is retained, it’s reasonable to think that between arb raises and rounding out the roster with league-minimum players, the Blue Jays could still come in around $185-190MM in total commitments. New contracts for Guerrero and/or Bichette wouldn’t necessarily need to come with substantial raises until the 2026 season. That’d leave $35-40MM for the Blue Jays to still augment their existing roster even while simply adhering to last year’s payroll levels.

Of course, nothing says that the payroll can’t and won’t rise. The Jays are owned by a multi-billion dollar company — Rogers Communications — in theory giving them room to pursue just about any player they want (as we saw with last offseason’s earnest pursuit of Shohei Ohtani). There’s no firm indication yet that they plan to be aggressive bidders for top free agents like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman or Willy Adames, but there’s also no reason to think they can’t swim in the deepest waters the free agent pool has to offer.

The question facing the Jays will be one of how much they want to tie up in long-term allocations. Extending either Guerrero or Bichette would presumably require signing said players well into the 2030s. So would signing Soto, while the remaining top names on the market could all sign through somewhere in the 2030-32 range if their markets come together as hoped. Long-term deals for homegrown talents like Bichette and Guerrero will only maintain the status quo; it’s clear there are further reinforcements needed, so Atkins and president Mark Shapiro — assuming both stay in place after this year’s disappointing campaign — will need to balance potential extensions with the need to further fortify a roster that fell woefully shy of expectations in 2024.

Obvious as it seems, it also bears emphasizing that Bichette’s pledge only carries so much weight. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection under the three-year, $33.6MM contract he signed to buy out his three arbitration seasons. He has no direct say over whether he’ll even be in Toronto next year, let alone for the next six, seven, eight, nine or ten years. At the same time, his assertion to Davidi plainly underscores that he’s not only open to but hopeful of signing a long-term deal to stay in Canada alongside his longtime teammate and friend.

Bichette speaks to Davidi about reflecting during his current injury absence, thinking back to his A-ball days with Guerrero when the two were fresh-faced 18-year-olds talking about winning as many championships as possible together. He adds that through reflection, he’s “learned a lot more about myself through failure,” referencing his 2024 struggles, both in terms of what he hopes to accomplish on the field and as a leader in the Blue Jays’ clubhouse. (Again, Jays fans are encouraged to read the interview in full, as it’s rife with candid quotes and earnest self-assessment from Bichette.)

The 2024 season has indeed been an ugly one for Bichette. Even before sustaining the calf injury that’s sidelined him for more than a month (his second calf strain of the season), he was stumbling through the worst season of his professional career. In 331 plate appearances, he hit just .222/.275/.320 with four home runs and five stolen bases. Bichette’s 19% strikeout rate is actually lower than his career 20.6% mark, but while he was still making frequent contact, the quality of his batted balls took a nosedive. Bichette has career-low marks in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate this season. His line-drive rate is the third-lowest of his career. His ground-ball rate is the third-highest. He hit only six infield flies in 601 plate appearances in 2023 but popped up five times in this year’s 331 plate appearances. Bichette’s contact rate on pitches in the strike zone was a career-best 91.7% — but his contact rate on balls off the plate was a career-worst 57.5%.

Prior to his ’24 struggles, Bichette was one of the most consistently impressive hitters in the American League. From 2019-23, he slashed a combined .299/.340/.487, averaging 27 homers, 40 doubles, two triples and 16 steals per 162 games played. Bichette may not have had top-of-the-scale power, speed or contact skills, but every component of his offensive tool kit played out at an above-average level, and while he’s never been a plus shortstop he’s also only had one year with truly poor defensive grades (2022).

This year’s struggles will complicate any extension talks with Bichette, of course. With a typical season, he’d have been on track to be a free agent heading into his age-28 season — a middle infielder with plus offense at a younger-than-typical age for free agency. Talk of a $250MM+ or even $300MM contract could have been in play. Such lofty heights probably aren’t attainable on the heels of a career-worst year at the plate that’s now seen multiple calf injuries keep him on the bench for two to three months. Finding a middle ground could be difficult, though an extension that allows Bichette to increase his earning power — whether via opt-out opportunities or perhaps via a series of vesting options, a la Carlos Correa in Minnesota — could offer create alternatives to help bridge the gap.

For now, the goal will simply be to get back on the field in 2024. Bichette tells Davidi that getting back on the field, knowing the injury is behind him and feeling like himself again will all be a mental boost heading into the offseason. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling tweets that Bichette is slated to begin a rehab assignment with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate tomorrow, which will likely last four to five games and include time at both shortstop and designated hitter. That could at least give Bichette two weeks to feel confident that his calf is back to full strength, but the bigger questions — for both him and the organization — are looming as the winter approaches.

AL East Notes: Bichette, Kjerstad, Hendriks

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Bo Bichette is scheduled to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment beginning on Tuesday, the Blue Jays told reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling).  Bichette has been on the injured list since suffering a right calf strain on July 19, which was the third calf-related issue for Bichette within about a month’s time.  It wasn’t clear at the time of the placement if Bichette would be able to return before the season was over or if the Jays might just shut him down, but it looks like the shortstop should be able to make it back for at least a bit more action before the 2024 campaign wraps.

While the Jays are well out of contention, returning to the field should provide some peace of mind for Bichette about his health as he wraps up the worst season of his six-year career.  The two-time All-Star hit only .222/.275/.320 over 331 plate appearances, delivering a 69 wRC+ that was far below his previous career mark of 127.  Bichette’s turn from star to replacement-level player was one of many reasons behind the Jays’ rough season, and it has raised fresh speculation about Bichette’s long-term future in Toronto, or even if he’ll still be a Blue Jay by next Opening Day.  These questions obviously won’t be answered in the small sample size of however many MLB games Bichette is able to play in September, but returning to the Jays lineup and hitting like his old self would allow him to take something positive from an otherwise lost year.

Other updates from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles announced that Heston Kjerstad will start a rehab assignment at the team’s A-ball affiliate in Aberdeen beginning tomorrow.  Kjerstad has been on the concussion-related injury list since August 1, marking his second stint on the concussion-IL since he was hit in the head by a Clay Holmes pitch on July 12.  The good news is that Kjerstad has cleared concussion protocol and now looks ready to return to action.  Now in his second MLB season, the former top prospect has continued to show glimpses of his potential with a .261/.370/.420 slash line in 81 plate appearances with Baltimore this season, and a healthy Kjerstad could provide a nice boost for the O’s heading into the playoffs.
  • Liam Hendriks was slated to throw back-to-back outings as part of his ongoing minor rehab assignment, though the Red Sox and the reliever have pulled back on the idea since Hendriks is feeling some slight discomfort.  “There was a little bit of an issue [in the elbow], but nothing that can’t be worked out,” Hendriks told the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and other reporters.  “I think I need to limit my own throwing….The muscle groups right there aren’t quite built up to withstand that just yet.  I need to kind of ease them in a little bit better.”  Hendriks and manager Alex Cora downplayed the setback, and the hope is that Hendriks will be able to make it back to the Red Sox roster before the season is over.  Hendriks hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2023, as a Tommy John surgery in August of that year has put his career on hold.
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