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Atkins: Jays Would Need To Subtract To Accommodate Significant Acquisition

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As the Blue Jays opened Spring Training, general manager Ross Atkins met with reporters yesterday. The GM implied the bulk of the club’s offseason activity was complete, minimizing the chance of making an impactful free agent strike without offloading someone from the roster.

“At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction,” Atkins said (link via Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). “We feel good about the team that we have. Feel good about the work that’s been done over the last five offseasons, the last four trade deadlines and now coming into another trade deadline, we’ll have another opportunity, I hope, that we’re in a strong position to add to that team (and) I know that we will.”

It wasn’t quite as firm a declaration that the team was finished with notable acquisitions as executives with other clubs (i.e. Nationals, Rangers) have made. Atkins noted the Jays remain in contact with player representatives as a large number of free agents are still unsigned. It nevertheless downplays the chance of Toronto jumping in on anything more than depth additions.

That’s an apparent reflection of a franchise-high payroll. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending in the $236MM range. Their competitive balance tax figure sits around $249MM, into the first tier of luxury tax penalization. Toronto paid the tax a year ago, so they’re subject to heightened penalties. They’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending up to $257MM and a 42% rate on the next $20MM, with higher penalties in the unlikely event they push past the $277MM mark.

On the one hand, the Jays have pushed their Opening Day spending past last year’s approximate $210MM figure. Team president Mark Shapiro suggested at the beginning of the offseason they anticipated keeping payroll steady. They have instead increased spending. Yet the Jays have also come up empty on their most significant free agent swings. They’d been linked to high-profile targets from Shohei Ohtani to Jorge Soler.

Their largest guarantee was a five-year, $32MM pact for Cuban swingman Yariel Rodríguez. They signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM deal and inked one-year pacts with Justin Turner ($13MM) and Kevin Kiermaier ($10.5MM).

While Atkins didn’t address any specific free agents — team personnel are prohibited from declaring themselves out of the market on individual players — his comments seem most notable with regards to Matt Chapman. The Jays appeared an on-paper fit to bring Chapman back. Their closest direct replacement at third base is Kiner-Falefa. Coming off a .242/.306/.340 platform showing that is broadly in line with his career numbers, Kiner-Falefa is better suited as a utility player for a team with playoff aspirations.

Toronto also allowed Whit Merrifield to hit free agency. He’s expected to make his signing decision within the coming days. While a return to Toronto isn’t out of the question, the Jays look content to allow a handful of multi-positional types to battle for playing time at second and third base.

Beyond Kiner-Falefa, the Jays have Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez on the 40-man roster. None of Martinez, Jimenez or Barger has played in the majors. All three have reached Triple-A, although Jimenez struggled in a brief look there last year. They’re longer shots to make the Opening Day roster. Veteran Eduardo Escobar will also be in camp after agreeing to a minor league contract last night.

Biggio, Espinal and Schneider are virtual locks to make the team. They’ve all shown flashes in their careers but none is a clear everyday player. Biggio had a league average .235/.340/.370 line over 339 plate appearances a season ago. After posting solid offensive numbers in his first two seasons, he has been an average or slightly worse hitter three years running.

Espinal was a surprising All-Star selection amidst an impressive 2022 campaign. His production dropped precipitously last year, as he hit .248/.310/.335 over 254 plate appearances. Schneider had a scorching start to his MLB career after being called up last August. He raked at a .426/.526/.894 clip over his first few weeks before slumping to a .174/.321/.406 line while striking out a third of the time in September. It was still an extremely impressive debut showing in aggregate, yet he’ll have to make his own adjustments as he faces MLB pitching over a full season for the first time. Clement, meanwhile, has been a utility player throughout his career. He’s out of options, so he’d have to secure a spot on the Opening Day bench or be placed on waivers.

Manager John Schneider told reporters yesterday that Biggio is a bit delayed after battling tendinitis in his left shoulder this offseason (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). He is not yet facing live pitching. Assuming he’s ready by Opening Day, he’s likely to compete with Kiner-Falefa and Espinal at third base. Davis Schneider has split his time in the minors fairly evenly between second and third. John Schneider said that Davis Schneider is focused on second base and left field as his main positions for the upcoming season (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).

Blue Jays To Sign Eduardo Escobar

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TODAY: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that Escobar’s deal is a minor league arrangement.

Feb 15, 10:44pm: Escobar and the Jays are in agreement on a contract pending a physical, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on X). Terms of the deal remain unreported. Escobar is represented by DJ Rengifo y Associates.

9:55pm: Infielder Eduardo Escobar is nearing agreement on a free agent deal with the Blue Jays, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). It’s not known if the former All-Star is closing in on a big league contract or a minor league pact with a non-roster invite to Spring Training.

Escobar, 35, is coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign. He opened the season as the Mets’ third baseman but began the year in a dreadful slump. Escobar carried a .125/.173/.229 line into the middle of April and lost the starting job to Brett Baty. The 13-year MLB veteran turned things around in a depth role but seemed a bit superfluous on the New York roster once Baty was recalled.

The Angels, reeling with infield injuries in late June, acquired Escobar for a pair of minor league pitchers. He didn’t produce much offensively, slumping to a .219/.259/.303 slash over 59 contests. The Halos made the obvious call to buy him out for $500K at year’s end as opposed to retaining him via $9MM team option.

Escobar finished the season with a combined .226/.269/.344 batting line in 309 trips to the plate. He struck out in a little more than a quarter of his plate appearances against a 5.8% walk percentage. While he has never had great strikeout and walk numbers, Escobar’s power production dropped off sharply. He hit six home runs after topping the 20-homer mark in each of the prior five full schedules. That was the result of a significant uptick in ground-balls and a drop in his hard contact rate.

The Jays will hope for something more closely approximating his 2021-22 form. Escobar was a slightly above-average hitter in each of those seasons and combined for a .247/.305/.452 showing with 48 longballs over that stretch.

Escobar’s defensive grades have dropped off as he’s gotten into his mid-30s. He can play any of first, second or third base but received below-average marks at all three spots (although his first base experience is limited enough that it’s difficult to draw conclusions about his glovework there).

Toronto has a number of upper level infield options but doesn’t have much certainty at either second or third base. Last year’s primary starters, Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, are free agents. The Jays brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year pact. Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Ernie Clement and prospect Addison Barger are all on the 40-man roster and could vie for reps at one or both positions.

Giants Acquire Otto López, Designate TJ Hopkins

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9:48pm: López still has one minor league option remaining, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (on X). That affords San Francisco the freedom to send him to Triple-A without putting him on waivers.

2:07pm: The Giants have acquired infielder/outfielder Otto López from the Blue Jays, per announcements from both clubs. The Blue Jays, who designated López for assignment last week, receive cash considerations in return. In order to open a spot on their roster, the Giants designated outfielder TJ Hopkins for assignment.

López, 25, was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays when the team finalized its five-year deal with right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. The right-handed hitter has appeared in sparse MLB action over the past two seasons. He’s 6-for-10 during that time (all singles) but has spent the bulk of his 2022-23 seasons in Triple-A Buffalo. He had a big year at the plate with Buffalo in ’22, hitting .297/.378/.415 in 391 plate appearances, but López declined across the board this past season, slashing just .258/.313/.343 in a comparable amount of playing time.

While López has long rated among the Jays’ top 30 prospects due to a plus hit tool and above-average speed, he has bottom-of-the-scale power (seven homers in 931 Triple-A plate appearances). He’s punched out in just 15% of his Triple-A plate appearances but hasn’t walked at an especially high clip (8.3%). And for all the speed he possesses, López’s 70.8% success rate in 518 minor league games (90-for-127) is below average.

López brings some versatility to the Giants’ bench, but he also adds another right-handed bat to an infield mix that’s already crowded with such options. He’s played second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions, though scouts question whether he has the arm to play on the left side of the diamond. He’ll be in the mix for playing time alongside J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada around the infield — if he sticks on the 40-man roster. It’s also possible the Giants simply try to pass López through waivers, which would allow them to keep him in the organization at Triple-A without dedicating a 40-man roster spot.

Hopkins, 27, made his MLB debut this past season with the Reds and went 7-for-41 (all singles) with a pair of walks and 17 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances. It was hardly an eye-catching debut, but the 2019 ninth-rounder’s production in Triple-A Louisville was far more intriguing. In his first full season at the top minor league level, Hopkins delivered a robust .308/.411/.514 batting line with a 14% walk rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, 16 home runs, 18 doubles, a triple and a pair of steals. Cincinnati designated him for assignment in December, and the Giants acquired him in exchange for cash.

Hopkins has played primarily left field in his professional career but has plenty of experience in right field and center field as well. He’s been an average or better hitter at every minor league stop and steadily improved both his walk and strikeout rates as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining. That could make him an intriguing fit for clubs seeking low-cost right-handed-hitting options to add to the outfield mix. The Red Sox, Twins and Padres are among the teams in that boat. San Francisco will have a week to trade Hopkins or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Blue Jays Announce Yariel Rodriguez Deal, Designate Otto Lopez For Assignment

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After a lengthy wait, the Blue Jays have formally announced their signing of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. It’s a five-year, $32MM deal for Rodriguez, per the team, as opposed to the four years and $32MM that was previously reported. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Toronto has designated utilityman Otto Lopez for assignment. Rodriguez is jointly represented by WME and Born To Play.

Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic reports that the fifth year on Rodriguez’s contract is a player option valued at $6MM. If Rodriguez declines that option, the team will then have the ability to exercise a $10MM club option. That could take the contract to $36MM over five years, though Francys Romero reports that the total money can climb as high as $40MM, which suggests there are some additional incentives baked into the arrangement.

It’s been more than three weeks since Rodriguez and the Jays agreed to terms on a contract, but he’s been unable to finalize the pact while awaiting a visa allowing him to enter either Canada or the United States. The expectation has been that whenever Rodriguez acquired the requisite documentation to enter either country, a physical would be completed and the deal would be finalized in short order.

Just 26 years old, Rodriguez has starred for los Ganaderos de Camaguey in his native Cuba and for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His work in NPB, in particular, caught the eye of Major League scouts, and with good reason. Rodriguez’s 3.03 ERA in three seasons with the Dragons is impressive on its own, but his most recent season featured 54 2/3 overwhelmingly dominant innings: a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate out of the Chunichi bullpen.

It should be noted, of course, that those numbers came during the 2022 NPB season — not in 2023. Rodriguez pitched for Team Cuba during last year’s World Baseball Classic but did not return to the Dragons for the 2023 season as he set his sights on a move to Major League Baseball. The Dragons placed him on the restricted list for the 2023 season and granted him his release in early November. He’s since hosted multiple showcases for MLB teams and been viewed as one of the more fascinating free agents on the market.

Of course, Rodriguez is also one of the most volatile free agents in play this winter; it’s hard enough to project how much of a player’s success in the Cuban National Series and/or in NPB might carry over to an MLB setting — but that’s all the more complicated when he didn’t even pitch during the preceding season outside of a brief WBC appearance. There’s a good bit of upside, to be sure, but given the long layoff, acclimation to a new culture and step up in overall level off competition, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes for Rodriguez in MLB — specifically in his first season.

It’s not yet clear just what role Rodriguez will fill with the Jays. He made some starts in NPB but worked primarily as a reliever — exclusively so in his final season with the Dragons. Back in Cuba, be worked primarily out of the Camaguey rotation. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins issued a statement today praising Rodriguez’s ability to generate swings and misses before noting that he provides “starting depth” but could also fill multiple roles on the team.

Given Rodriguez’s lengthy layoff from pitching — and even lengthier layoff from working a full starting pitcher’s workload — it’d be a surprise to see him jump right into the Jays’ rotation. In all likelihood, he’ll be on an innings cap this year, and it’s even possible that Toronto could want to get him some work in Triple-A before thrusting him into the MLB spotlight. Logically speaking, it’s natural to think he could fill a long relief/spot starter role and build up innings this year, with an eye toward stepping into the 2025 rotation on a more permanent basis. But, if the Jays have a need in the late innings Rodriguez clearly has the raw stuff to pitch in that type of leverage role as well.

Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser profiled Rodriguez and several other international free agents (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, Jung Hoo Lee, Yuki Matsui, Woo Suk Go) earlier in the offseason, writing that Rodriguez’s fastball sits around 96 mph and can reach triple digits on occasion. Glaser credited the hard-throwing Rodriguez with an above-average slider but called his splitter “fringy” and his curveball “below-average.” The Jays could certainly help the 6’1″ Rodriguez refine some of those offspeed offerings, but even if he’s operating with “only” a plus heater and above-average slider, that could be enough to make him a viable big league setup man or multi-inning reliever.

As for the 25-year-old Lopez, he’ll now be traded or placed on outright waivers within the coming week. The right-handed hitter has appeared in the big leagues sparingly over the past two seasons, collecting six singles in ten at-bats. Lopez looked to be on the cusp of breaking through to the majors for a larger opportunity when he batted .297/.378/.415 in 391 Triple-A plate appearances in 2022, but his bat took a sizable step back in 2023, evidenced by a tepid .258/.313/.343 slash in 346 plate appearances at that same level.

Scouting reports on Lopez have touted his plus hit tool and speed, but he has bottom-of-the-scale power, evidenced by the fact that he’s never topped five homers in a season and has just seven long balls in 931 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s swiped 90 bases in 518 minor league games but has only a 70.8% success rate. Lopez has seen time at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield, but skeptics question whether he has the arm to play on the left side of the infield.

Because he’s out of minor league options, Lopez would’ve needed to make the Blue Jays Opening Day roster or else be traded elsewhere or placed on waivers (likely following a DFA). The Jays made the move proactively rather than carry Lopez throughout spring training. He’ll now be available to the other 29 clubs via trade or waivers, but any team that acquires him will need to carry Lopez on its own Opening Day roster or else try to pass Lopez through waivers before sending him down to the minors.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Blue Jays

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Arbitrators ruled in favor of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his hearing versus the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The slugging first baseman will be paid at the $19.9MM rate sought by his camp at PRIME. The team had submitted an $18.05MM filing figure.

Guerrero’s arbitration case was the most significant of any this offseason. Of the players who went to a hearing, he’s in line for easily the highest salary. The $1.85MM gap between his filing figure and the team’s proposed rate was the second-largest of the offseason; there’s a $1.9MM spread between the Rangers’ and Adolis García’s submissions.

This is the third of four trips through the process for the three-time All-Star. Guerrero racked up huge earnings early in the process. That’s partially because he qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2021-22 offseason. It’s also a reflection of the monster numbers he posted early in his career, particularly during the ’21 campaign. Guerrero’s MVP runner-up season led to a hefty $7.9MM agreement for 2022. He and the Jays settled on a $14.5MM deal last winter but couldn’t find a mutually agreeable price point this time around.

That nevertheless works out well for Guerrero, who secures a $5.4MM raise relative to last season. While he’s coming off a good year, his production wasn’t what he or the team envisioned from one of the sport’s most talented offensive players. Guerrero hit 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .264/.345/.444 batting line over 682 plate appearances.

Toronto’s projected payroll sits in the $240MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’ll go through the arbitration process with Guerrero once again next offseason. Winning his case this year establishes the platform for next winter’s discussions higher — a player’s previous salaries is a key factor in setting arbitration prices — and he’ll hit free agency in advance of his age-27 season.

Guerrero was the only Toronto player going to a hearing this winter. Players around the league have been victorious in six consecutive hearings after teams won the first two. There are 10 cases still pending.

Justin Turner Discusses Red Sox Departure

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.

Tony Kemp Getting Interest From Five Teams

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The Blue Jays, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees have all shown interest in veteran second baseman/left fielder Tony Kemp, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports.  These are the first teams linked to Kemp this offseason, as the 32-year-old is a free agent for the first time in his career.

One of the few experienced players on a young and rebuilding A’s team, Kemp has spent the last four years in Oakland, bridging the gap between the last contending Athletics club and its current state of extreme teardown.  Most of his playing time has some against right-handed pitching (though Kemp’s career splits are pretty even against both righties and lefties), and Zack Gelof’s emergence at second base meant that Kemp was mostly a left fielder in the back half of the 2023 season.

Kemp’s own lack of production didn’t help his cause for more playing time, as he hit only .209/.303/.304 over 419 plate appearances last year.  Kemp posted strong numbers in a part-time capacity with the A’s in 2021 and the Astros in 2018, though he has generally been a below-average hitter during his career, with a 94 wRC+.

It seems likely that any of Kemp’s suitors would be viewing him as a bench piece or platoon option at best, plus the respected Kemp would be a boost in any clubhouse.  While he played some center field early in his career and he has a handful of games as a right fielder and shortstop, it seems like Kemp is pretty set as a two-position player, and the public defensive metrics have been more positive about his work as a left fielder than at second base.

Of the five teams mentioned by Murray, the Red Sox might be the cleanest fit for Kemp given that Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom (their projected left field/second base starters) are both right-handed hitters.  Utilityman Rob Refsnyder is right-handed and infield backup Enmanuel Valdez is short on big league experience, perhaps creating an opening for Kemp on the roster.  Red Sox manager Alex Cora is also a familiar face, as Cora was on Houston’s coaching staff during Kemp’s time with the Astros.

The Pirates have a pretty crowded second-base competition heading into the season, with Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and others all battling for time at the keystone.  While the Bucs would prefer to see one of their youngsters grab the job, adding a seasoned player like Kemp could help add some depth in the event that nobody really breaks out.  Kemp’s reputation as a leader could also be particularly useful for a young Pirates team, particularly after several players spoke of how the addition of such veteran voices as Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana helped the club last year.

New York, Cincinnati, and especially Toronto could all use some more left-handed balance in their lineups, though Kemp isn’t as clear-cut of a fit given how all three of these teams are already pretty deep in second base and left field options.  Kemp’s experience could again be a factor here as something more of a proven commodity, in case any of the Reds’ prized young infielders need some more minor league seasoning or if the Yankees want some depth in case Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza don’t develop at the plate.

Blue Jays Turning Away Trade Interest In Alek Manoah, Expect Him To Be In 2024 Rotation

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The Blue Jays have heard from teams looking to buy low on right-hander Alek Manoah following a disastrous 2023 season throughout the winter, but Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Jays have been telling interested parties they expect Manoah to be in the 2024 rotation and do not plan to move him.

By now, the highs and lows of Manoah’s 2022-23 campaigns are well-documented. The right-hander finished third in American League Cy Young voting as recently as 2022, pitching to a pristine 2.24 earned run average while fanning 22.9% of his opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He made 31 starts, totaled 196 2/3 innings, and was named to his first All-Star team that year. The 2023 season was the polar opposite; Manoah’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate all went in the wrong direction. His home run rate doubled. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped by two miles per hour, while their hard-hit rate spiked from 31.5% to 44.4%.

Manoah was optioned to the minors multiple times throughout the 2023 season — a notion that would’ve been unthinkable entering the year. The right-hander underwent a slate of medical exams after being optioned for the final time, but no major injury was uncovered. He wound up finishing out the season with a grisly 5.87 ERA in just 87 1/3 frames. Manoah’s final big league start came on Aug. 10.

Throughout the offseason, Manoah’s name has popped up in various trade rumors. That’s plenty understandable, as even if the 2023 season represents a clear rock-bottom for the talented righty, he’s only a year removed from being on the opposite end of that spectrum. Manoah also just turned 26 years old in January, and he’s controllable for another four years before he can become a free agent. Even if the Jays (or a trade partner) never get him back to that peak 2022 form, there’s an appealing middle ground where Manoah could be a strong mid-rotation arm at an affordable rate for several years.

For the Blue Jays, the upside of keeping Manoah has clearly outweighed the temptation to pursue a change of scenery. That’s likely due both to belief in the pitcher himself and the offers and names discussed with other clubs in trade talks. Interested parties were undoubtedly trying to acquire Manoah at something of a discounted rate in light of last year’s struggles. The Jays, presumably, retained a lofty asking price given the affordability, remaining club control and ceiling of the pitcher.

Beyond the general difficulty of lining up on asking price in such a volatile buy-low situation, the Jays simply aren’t teeming with rotation depth. Assuming Manoah is in the starting five to begin the season, he’ll join Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi to round out the group.

It’s a solid quintet but one with its own question marks even beyond Manoah. Berrios’ 2022 season was similar to Manoah’s 2023 campaign; in 32 starts he was tagged for an uncharacteristic 5.23 ERA with the highest home-run rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. He bounced back in ’23 (3.65 ERA in 189 2/3 innings), but his ’22 struggles are surely still in the back of the Jays’ minds. Meanwhile, Kikuchi is something of a wild card. The 32-year-old lefty is clearly a talented arm but has had a roller-coaster MLB tenure. At his best, he’s looked like a borderline top-of-the-rotation arm, but there have been low points where he’s pitched his way out of a rotation spot entirely. Between Manoah, Berrios and Kikuchi, there’s a volatile, broad-reaching range of potential outcomes.

The depth behind that group is also somewhat lacking. Left-hander Ricky Tiedemann is one of the top pitching prospects in the sport but tossed just 44 innings during the 2023 regular season — only four of which came in Triple-A. He tacked on another 18 innings in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s lacking upper-minors experience and will be on an innings cap to some extent in 2024. Righty Yariel Rodriguez, who agreed to a four-year, $32MM deal might be an eventual rotation option for Toronto, but he didn’t pitch in 2023 outside of a brief showing in the World Baseball Classic, and he was primarily a reliever during his most recent run with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

The Jays have a trio of other right-handers on the 40-man roster who could conceivably serve as depth: Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons. But White’s roster spot could be in jeopardy this spring after he posted a 5.50 ERA in Triple-A last season and a 7.11 ERA in 12 2/3 MLB frames. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll need to make the Opening Day club, likely as a long reliever/swingman, or else be designated for assignment. Francis, 28 in April, posted a sparkling 1.73 ERA with Toronto last year but worked exclusively out of the bullpen in the big leagues and made only seven minor league starts. He pitched a total of 66 1/3 innings in ’23. Parsons, 31, joined the Jays on a minor league deal after a two-year run in the KBO and posted a 4.52 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts before being rocked for nine runs in four innings during his lone MLB start.

Given the shaky nature of the team’s depth and the fact that 60 percent of the current MLB rotation has struggled to an ERA north of 5.00 in one of the past two seasons, it’s understandable if the Jays want to retain as much depth as possible. Couple that with what one can imagine have been lackluster offers from teams hoping to secure a bargain acquisition of Manoah, and it becomes all the easier to see why the Jays prefer to hang onto him. Any trade situation is fluid, of course, and it takes all of one phone call or text message with the right player’s name(s) to get earnest trade talks rolling. For now, however, it seems likely to anticipate Manoah will open the season in Toronto and look to reestablish himself as a viable cog in a talented but mercurial rotation.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
  • Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Joe Smith Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Joe Smith announced his retirement on Wednesday, calling it a career after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. Via his representatives at Excel Sports Management, Smith issued a lengthy statement thanking the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners and Twins organizations in addition to his coaches, teammates, trainers and family for supporting him throughout his career.

Selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, the now-39-year-old Smith was in the majors less than one year later and practically never looked back. That’s in large part thanks to the fact that Smith established himself as a quality big league reliever right out of the gate, pitching 44 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate as a rookie.

That set off a remarkable run of 13 straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better for Smith — including five years with a sub-3.00 mark and two with a sub-2.00. While the sidearming Smith was rarely thrust into the ninth-inning spotlight (30 career saves), he’s one of the most consistent and prolific setup men in the game’s history. Since holds began being tracked, Smith’s 228 rank him in the top five all-time. His blend of durability and consistently strong performance kept him in leverage spots for more than a decade.

Smith wasn’t on the 2016 Cubs’ World Series roster after missing most of the final month of the season due to injury, but he did take home a ring that year and pitched in parts of five other postseasons (including in 2019, when he pitched in the World Series as the Astros finished runner-up to the Nationals). As was the case during his regular-season performances, he remained quite strong in October. In 14 career playoff innings, Smith yielded only four earned runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts (2.57 ERA).

All told, Smith will walk away from the game with 762 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball under his belt. In his career, he pitched for eight MLB clubs, notching a 55-34 record with 30 saves, 228 holds, a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Smith didn’t post an ERA over 4.00 until his age-37 season in 2021, and in 15 MLB seasons he never had a single year where he ERA climbed to 5.00 or higher. He picked up more than 13 years of Major League service time and earned more than $51MM in salary over the course of a quietly excellent career. Best wishes to Smith and his family in whatever lies in store for his post-playing days.

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