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Blue Jays Sign Justin Turner

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Jan. 31: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports the breakdown of Turner’s incentive package. He’ll unlock $125K bonuses for reaching 500, 525, 550 and 575 plate appearances, plus another $250K for reaching each of 600, 625 and 650 plate appearances. Turner also secures a $150K bonus for reaching 120 days on the active roster and another $100K for spending 150 days on the active roster.

Jan. 30: The Blue Jays will have a new designated hitter for the 2024 season, announcing they’ve signed free agent Justin Turner to a one-year contract. It is reportedly a $13MM deal with The Vayner Sports client, who can earn an additional $1.5MM based on both roster bonuses and performance incentives, taking his deal to a maximum of $14.5MM.

Turner turned 39 years old in November but certainly wasn’t showing any signs of his age in 2023, when he slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 31 doubles, an 8.1% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate in 146 games and 626 plate appearances with the Red Sox.

By measure of wRC+, Turner was about 14% better than league-average at the plate — his incredible tenth consecutive season being at least 14% above par with the bat. He was one of the top remaining corner infield and designated hitter options and will install a “professional hitter” into the Toronto lineup — one who is generally revered for his leadership and clubhouse presence as well.

The consistency Turner brings to the plate is rather remarkable. He hasn’t batted lower than .275, posted an OBP under .339, slugged less than .438 or struck out in more than 18% of his plate appearances in any of the past ten seasons since establishing himself as a regular with the Dodgers in 2014. Overall, he’s a .293/.371/.486 hitter in that time. He’s averaged 24 home runs and 35 doubles per 162 games played over that decade-long span.

Turner’s contract with the Red Sox was a two-year, $22.7MM contract, the second season of which was a player option. He took home an $8.3MM salary in 2023 and also received a $6.7MM buyout on the option when he turned it down to return to the open market. Turner is guaranteed less on this new contract than he was a year ago, although with incentives he’ll be able to nearly match the $15MM he ultimately received for his lone year in Boston. And, given that the player option was a net $7.7MM call for him, he still clearly came out ahead in his decision to decline his player option.

With the Jays, Turner figures to serve as their primary designated hitter but can also split time at the hot corner with fellow free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or another yet-to-be-made acquisition). He’s also logged 527 career innings at first base, including 289 last year in Boston, making him a viable option to spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he needs a breather as well.

If there’s one drawback to the match between the two parties, from the team’s vantage point, it’s that Turner adds another right-handed bat to a lineup that already skews heavily toward that side of the plate. He’s effectively replacing the left-handed-hitting Brandon Belt, who notably remains unsigned and had a strong year at the plate for the Jays in 2023 in a heavily platooned role.

As it stands, left fielder Daulton Varsho, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and infielder Cavan Biggio are the only lefties projected in the Toronto lineup. No one from that group is an especially formidable lefty presence, and all are best served in a platoon arrangement. Turner has slightly better career numbers against righties than lefties, which helps to mitigate some of the concern, but the Jays could still struggle against premium right-handed pitchers at times, given their lack of balance in the lineup.

Thus far, Turner marks the biggest upgrade to the Toronto lineup of the offseason. The Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani and also met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but both players wound up signing with the Dodgers. The Jays were also said to have strong interest in lefty-swinging Joc Pederson before he inked a comparable deal to Turner’s with the D-backs.

The Jays have been tied to a number of bat-first players over the past month, talking to representatives for free agent sluggers like J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins and Pederson. Their interest to Turner dates back to at least mid-December, and now that it’s manifested in a deal, the Jays are presumably out of the running for yet-unsigned DH options like Martinez and Soler. Turner joins Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and now-former NPB righty-hander Yariel Rodriguez as notable free agent pickups for the Jays so far in the 2023-24 offseason.

The addition of Turner should push the Blue Jays firmly into luxury tax territory. Toronto had a bottom-line payroll of $228MM before agreeing to terms with Turner, per Roster Resource, and the Jays were already slightly north of $237MM luxury barrier. Turner will move both numbers forward by $13MM. Since the Jays are a second-time payor of the tax, their penalty will be rather light: a simple 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and another 42% tax for the next $20MM, if further additions are forthcoming.

With regard to the Turner signing, they’ll end up paying $3.9MM in luxury penalties, which clearly wasn’t a significant deterrent for them. The $240MM Opening Day payroll for which the Jays are now projected stands as a franchise-record by a magnitude of $30MM — topping last the $210MM high-water mark previously established just last year.

Looking ahead, it still seems possible there are further moves to be made for the Jays, who currently project to divide playing time at second base and third base among Biggio, Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider and Santiago Espinal. Schneider, in particular, had an intriguing 2023 debut when he hit .276/.404/.603 — but that was a tiny sample of 141 plate appearances and came with a .369 BABIP in addition to a 30.5% strikeout rate. Some regression should surely be expected. Kiner-Falefa is best known for his defensive versatility and is a better utility option than everyday player. Biggio had a solid 2023 showing at the dish but has never come close to replicating his 2019-20 numbers. Espinal is coming off a career-worst .248/.310/.335 performance.

In the rotation, Toronto is still facing some uncertainty at the back end of the group. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and a resurgent Jose Berrios form a strong top three, but Yusei Kikuchi has lacked consistency on a year-to-year basis and Alek Manoah struggled through a catastrophic season on the mound. The aforementioned Rodriguez could eventually be a rotation option, but that’s more likely in 2025, as he’ll be on a strict innings count this season. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could debut in 2024 as well but thus far has just four innings above the Double-A level.

The Blue Jays have been tied to several high-profile and still-unsigned names — Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman among them. Re-signing Chapman is a cleaner fit from a roster construction standpoint, as Toronto has Varsho, Kiermaier and George Springer across the outfield and now Turner at designated hitter, making a rotation including the DH spot more difficult. Adding another bat and/or rotation piece would help to lessen the sting of missing out on top targets earlier in the winter, though it remains unclear how much more ownership is willing to spend after already soaring past the franchise’s prior spending levels.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that the agreement and the terms.

Blue Jays Outright Brian Serven

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The Blue Jays announced this evening that catcher Brian Serven was outrighted to Triple-A Buffalo. Toronto hadn’t previously indicated that Serven had landed on waivers. They apparently quietly took him off the roster last week. That technically drops their 40-man count to 39, although Toronto has still yet to finalize the Yariel Rodríguez signing, which will put that back at capacity.

Toronto just grabbed Serven off waivers two weeks ago. He has bounced between a few teams this winter. A former fifth-round pick of the Rockies, he was designated for assignment by Colorado in early January. The Cubs placed a claim but DFA him within a week. Toronto pursued a similar strategy and will retain Serven after successfully slipping him through unclaimed.

The Arizona State product has played in 73 MLB games over the last two seasons. Working mostly as a backup catcher to Elías Díaz in Denver, he hit .195/.248/.314 over 228 plate appearances. Serven has logged 534 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He owns a .238/.305/.450 slash there, including a .199/.241/.331 mark in 38 games a year ago.

Serven posted above-average pitch framing numbers in his MLB work. He’ll stick with the Jays as a non-roster depth catcher who’ll very likely get an invitation to big league Spring Training. The Jays are down to Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk as their only catchers on the 40-man roster. Barring further acquisitions this offseason, Serven would have a good chance of being reselected to the MLB club if either Jansen or Kirk require any time on the injured list.

Jimy Williams Passes Away

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Former player, manager and coach Jimy Williams has passed away, according to announcement from his previous clubs. He was 80 years old.

Williams was born in Santa Maria, California in 1943 and started his professional career by signing with the Red Sox. He was selected by the Cardinals in the 1965 Rule 5 draft and made his major league debut with that club. His playing career was quite modest, as he got into just 14 big league games with the Cards, 13 in 1966 and one more the following year. He made 14 plate appearances, walking once and striking out six times. His three singles in 13 at-bats gave him a batting average of .231.

He was traded to the Reds after the 1967 season and selected by the Expos in the 1968 expansion draft, but he never made it back to the big leagues. Though his playing career was limited, he managed to have brushes with greatness. His first appearance was against Sandy Koufax and his first hit came off Juan Marichal, both of whom eventually became Hall of Famers.

He transitioned to coaching and managing in the ’70s, starting in the Angels’ farm system. He got to the big leagues as the third base coach of the Blue Jays in 1980. He was promoted to the manager’s chair in 1986, with Bobby Cox vacating the role and heading to Atlanta. The Jays posted a winning record the next three seasons though didn’t make the postseason. Toronto fans of a certain vintage will remember that the 1987 club had a 3.5-game lead over the Tigers before losing their final seven contests for a heartbreaking second-place finish despite winning 96 games on the year. In 1989, the Jays got out to a slow start and Williams was fired in May, replaced by Cito Gaston.

Williams’ next gig was with Atlanta, reuniting him with Cox. Williams served as the third base coach in Atlanta from 1991 to 1996. The 1994 season wasn’t finished because of that year’s strike, but Atlanta won the National League East in every other season during that stretch, winning the World Series in 1995.

He got another managerial gig in 1997, getting hired by the Red Sox. They finished in fourth in the American League East in the first of his seasons in Boston but then got up to second place and earned the American League Wild Card spot in both 1998 and 1999. Williams won American League Manager of the Year honors in the latter of those two seasons, but the Sox didn’t make it back to the postseason in 2000 and then Williams was fired in August of 2001.

A few months later, Williams was hired to manage the Astros. They finished with winning records but shy of the postseason in 2002 and 2003, before Williams was fired midway through the 2004 campaign. That would be his last managerial gig, but he was hired to be the Phillies’ bench coach going into the 2007 season. The Phils won the National League East that year but lost to the Rockies in the NLDS. The next year, they won the division again and eventually won the 2008 World Series, a second ring for Williams as a coach. He decided not to return to the club the following year, finishing his career on a high note.

Over his career, Williams managed parts of 12 seasons with a combined record of 910-790, a .535 winning percentage. His two sons, Brady Williams and Shawn Williams, went on to become professional baseball players and minor league managers/coaches. We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to the Williams family as well as Jimy’s many friends, acquaintances and fans throughout the game.

Latest On Jorge Soler’s Market

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Jorge Soler is one of the better hitters still available in free agency. He’s surely seeking a multi-year deal on the heels of a 36-homer campaign that led him to decline a $13MM player option with the Marlins.

At the beginning of the month, Soler told reporters in Cuba that Miami hadn’t shown any interest in a reunion. A return to South Florida still seems a long shot. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote yesterday the Fish have had some contact with the free agent slugger but would likely only bring him back on a cheap deal.

The Marlins opted against a $20.325MM qualifying offer at the start of the offseason. While that wasn’t surprising for a low-payroll franchise, it didn’t bode well for their chances of re-signing him. Even if Soler doesn’t secure that kind of salary on an annual basis, he should handily surpass that guarantee over a two- or three-year term.

Boston, Seattle, Arizona and Toronto have reportedly shown interest in Soler at points this offseason. Of that group, the Blue Jays appear the strongest suitor. The Mariners and D-Backs are almost certainly out; Seattle signed Mitch Garver and acquired Mitch Haniger, while Arizona re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and agreed to a $12.5MM deal with Joc Pederson this evening.

The Red Sox are still open to adding a right-handed bat, but Boston officials have indicated they’re working without much payroll flexibility. They reportedly didn’t want to go beyond two guaranteed years for Teoscar Hernández; it’s possible they’re taking a similar approach with Soler.

On the other hand, the Jays clearly remain involved in the market. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweeted this morning that Toronto’s interest in Soler is “very real.” Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote tonight the sides remain engaged in discussions. The Jays still have a clear need for offensive help, particularly at designated hitter. Toronto allowed Brandon Belt to hit free agency and hasn’t landed a replacement.

Roster Resource projects the Jays right at the $237MM base luxury tax threshold. They surpassed the threshold in 2023, so they’ll be taxed at the rate for second-time payors this year. They’d owe a 32% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM with escalating penalties beyond the $257MM mark.

Blue Jays, Orioles Have Shown Interest In Domingo German

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The Orioles and Blue Jays are among six teams that have shown interest in free agent starter Domingo Germán, reports Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post. Sanchez adds that the Mets have also checked in but casts doubt on the chance of the right-hander heading to Queens.

Germán has spent his entire MLB career with the Yankees, who acquired him as a prospect in a 2014 trade with the Marlins. At times, he looked like a key mid-rotation arm in the Bronx, yet his tenure was marred by off-field issues. After working as a depth arm between 2017-18, he tallied a career-high 143 innings over 27 appearances (24 starts) in 2019. Germán was having a productive season, working to a 4.03 ERA with a near-26% strikeout rate.

That September, MLB placed Germán on administrative leave after he reportedly assaulted his girlfriend at a charity event. MLB finished its investigation that offseason and suspended him for the first 81 games of the 2020 season. That year wound up being shortened by the pandemic, so MLB reinstated him after he missed the entire 60-game schedule.

Germán returned to the Yankees in 2021. He missed parts of the next two seasons battling shoulder issues, combining for a 4.17 ERA over 170 2/3 innings. He held a spot in the New York rotation for the early portion of last year. Germán’s start to the year was middling and he was suspended for 10 games in mid-May after failing a foreign substance inspection.

He carried a 5.10 ERA through his first 14 appearances into a late-June start in Oakland. Germán turned in a legendary performance at the Coliseum that night, throwing MLB’s 24th perfect game, the first since Félix Hernández’s outing in 2012. Germán followed that up with a 4.61 ERA over five starts in July.

On August 2, the Yankees announced they were placing Germán on the restricted list so he could report to an inpatient treatment facility for alcohol abuse. Lindsey Adler of the Wall Street Journal subsequently reported that an apparently intoxicated Germán had argued with teammates and coaches in the New York clubhouse and flipped a couch amidst those confrontations.

That ended Germán’s tenure with the Yankees. He spent the rest of the season on the restricted list. At year’s end, New York placed him on outright waivers. Once he went unclaimed, he elected free agency.

Sanchez writes that Germán has completed the requirements of his inpatient treatment and is seeking a return to the majors in 2024. According to Sanchez, his camp has received two formal contract offers (although it isn’t clear if those proposals have come from Baltimore and Toronto specifically). If he lands a major league deal, it’d surely be a cheap one-year pact.

Of the two AL East teams known to have shown interest, Baltimore has the greater need for rotation help. Aside from depth righty Jonathan Heasley, the O’s have yet to add a starting pitcher this offseason. They’re slated to begin the year with Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, John Means and likely Dean Kremer in the top four spots. Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells (each of whom worked out of the bullpen at points last year) would be the best options for the #5 job at present. The starting staff is the weakest point on an otherwise loaded roster coming off a 101-win season.

It’s unlikely Baltimore will come away from the offseason completely empty-handed. Yet they’ve thus far resisted dealing from the top of their vaunted farm system to add starting pitching via trade. While they seemed a candidate to at least play in the middle tiers of the free agent rotation market, the organization again hasn’t shown that kind of appetite for spending.

The O’s signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM guarantee to take the ninth inning after losing Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery. They’ve otherwise sat out MLB free agency this winter. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $81MM. That’s well above last year’s approximate $61MM Opening Day figure but puts them in the league’s bottom five in terms of estimated payroll.

Toronto took some early swings at the top of the free agent market. They’ve pivoted to the middle tiers in recent weeks, including a rotation acquisition. The Jays agreed to terms with Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez on a four-year, $32MM deal last week. He’ll likely compete for the final spot with Alek Manoah, who is trying to bounce back from a dismal 2023 season. With Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi occupying the top four positions, it’s unlikely they’d give Germán a look in the season-opening rotation. If Rodríguez doesn’t take them out of the market for Germán entirely, they’d probably view him as a long relief option.

Blue Jays Reportedly In Agreement With Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodríguez have agreed on a contract, per reporter Francys Romero. The details aren’t known but Romero says that the WME client is expected to have his physical in Toronto in the coming days. It was reported yesterday that the Jays were optimistic about signing the righty but that immigration issues needed to be sorted out. As he’s now apparently headed to Canada, it would appear those issues have been resolved. Toronto has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this deal official. Per Romero, the agreement is for four years and $32MM.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirms that there is an agreement but adds that immigration hurdles remain. Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish-language ESPN link and X post) that Rodríguez will actually do his physical in The United States but is waiting for a visa that will allow him to enter that country from the Dominican Republic.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, has been an interesting wild card of this offseason. He had pitched as a starter at the beginning of his career in Cuba but then was moved to the bullpen during a three-year stint in Japan. He then briefly returned to a starting role for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, then didn’t return to his club in Japan. He was eventually granted his release and has been holding showcases for MLB clubs.

Players coming to North America from leagues in other countries will often have wide ranges of evaluations from MLB clubs. Given the unusual path of Rodríguez, that variance might be even higher than normal. An optimistic club could look to his youth, past work as a starter and strong results as a reliever in 2022. But on the pessimistic side of things, the righty hasn’t worked as a starter in many years and hardly pitched at all in 2023, which gives him an uncertain path forward. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Rodríguez could secure a four-year, $32MM deal.

He began his career in the 2015-16 season of the Cuban National Series when he was just 18 years old. He pitched in 91 games in that league over multiple seasons, starting 72 of those and posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 in 464 1/3 innings. For the 2020 season, he signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. That club kept him in the bullpen over the next three seasons. He tossed 175 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of opponents while walking 10.4% of them. His 2022 campaign was especially impressive, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%. He made two starts in the WBC, throwing 7 1/3 innings with 10 Ks but six walks.

Rodríguez got plenty of interest this offseason, with many clubs attending his showcases. The Rays, Red Sox, Padres, Astros, Pirates, Yankees and Reds all were connected to him at various points, with some viewing him as a starter while others considered him a better fit as a reliever. The Jays were one of the clubs that viewed him as a capable starter and they appeared to emerge as the favorite to land him in recent weeks.

The Jays came into the winter with their pitching staff in decent shape while their lineup seemingly needed more attention. But adding some pitching was also still a consideration for the club, as shown by their interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. The Jays have four rotation spots spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all still with the club for 2024.

But the final spot in the rotation is a bit more murky. Alek Manoah had a rotation job coming into last year but struggled badly enough that he was twice optioned to the minors. Hyun Jin Ryu returned from his Tommy John surgery rehab midseason and supplanted Manoah in the rotation, but then reached free agency at season’s end.  The relationship between Manoah and the Jays may not be perfect after last year’s struggles but he was still considered to have an edge on a rotation spot not too long ago.

Manoah’s name has also been in some trade rumors this winter and it’s possible that bringing Rodríguez aboard makes a deal more likely. But as mentioned, Rodríguez didn’t pitch last year after the WBC and was working as a reliever for the previous three seasons. The Jays likely don’t expect him to suddenly pitch 200 or even 150 innings this year without issue, meaning he might be more of a long-term project. It’s entirely possible that they keep Manoah and then have Rodríguez working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen with an eye on a larger workload in 2025 and beyond.

They also have other potential starters on the roster, such as Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons. Not yet on the roster but in the mix is prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who is on the cusp of the majors after he reached Triple-A last year. However, injuries limited him to just 62 innings for the year, between the minors and then a stint in the Arizona Fall League. Similar to Rodríguez, he will likely have some sort of workload limit in front of him this year.

There are still a few unanswered questions for the Jays. How Rodríguez looks in spring and then how he proceeds throughout the year will undoubtedly impact the answers to those questions. If he becomes a viable starter going forward, he can help the Jays absorb some upcoming departures. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after 2024, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026. If that doesn’t pan out, the club will be hoping for a fallback plan of him settling in as an asset in their bullpen. Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024 while each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

If the Jays have enough confidence in Rodríguez and the rest of their staff, perhaps they can use it to address their lineup in some way. They lost Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield to free agency a few months ago and have thus far made one addition by signing glove-first utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The club can still sign free agents, with each of Chapman, Belt and Merrifield still being available, but it’s possible the budget is getting tight. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM. The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. The details of the deal for Rodríguez still aren’t known but the club will be pushed further beyond last year’s payroll. Their CBT number will also surely wind up over the $237MM base threshold.

A trade could allow the club to get another bat or two without having to pay open-market prices for current free agents, but it’s also possible there’s still more spending capacity for a free agent addition. The club has been connected to sluggers like Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez and others.

Blue Jays Reportedly Optimistic About Signing Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays are optimistic about landing right-hander Yariel Rodríguez, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That meshes with reporting last month from Enrique Rojas of ESPN, who said that the Jays had “taken the lead” in the righty’s market. Per today’s report from Rosenthal, immigration issues have prevented the deal from being made official. It’s unclear what exactly those issues are or when they are expected to be resolved.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, started his career in his home country of Cuba. He pitched in the Cuban National Series starting in the 2015-16 season when he was just 18 years of age. He eventually pitched in 91 games in that league, starting 72 of them, posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 over 464 1/3 innings.

He joined the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2020 season, though that club kept him in a relief role. His three NPB seasons resulted in 175 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of batters faced while walking 10.4%. In 2022, he seemed to find a new gear, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%.

He pitched for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and then didn’t return to Japan. While he was able to secure his release from the Dragons and be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he wasn’t able to pitch in official games last year after the WBC.

He has received widespread interest this offseason, with some clubs viewing him as capable of returning to a starting role. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted he could secure a four-year, $32MM contract. That’s roughly in the same ballpark as a couple of other pitchers who are possibly moving from the bullpen to a rotation. Reynaldo López signed with Atlanta for three years and $30MM while Jordan Hicks landed with the Giants for $44MM over four. Both of those pitchers have been effective relievers in recent years but will try to get stretched out as starters this spring.

The appeal of Rodríguez would likely be similar. If he turns out to be a viable starter, it would be a boon for the club that signs him, with a relief role serving as an acceptable fallback plan. Rodríguez might be a bit of a long-term project as a starter after missing out on the 2023 season, making a sudden jump to a full-time starter’s workload a tall ask.

The Jays already have four fifths of this year’s rotation spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all returning from last year’s club. The fifth spot is more open, with Hyun Jin Ryu now a free agent. Alek Manoah was a Cy Young candidate as recently as 2022 but it’s unclear how much faith the club has in him right now. The 2023 season saw him struggle and get optioned to the minors twice, which seemed to sour the relationship between him and the club. He may still be the favorite for the final rotation job but his name has also appeared in plenty of trade rumors this offseason. Prospect Ricky Tiedemann reached Triple-A last year and could be nearing his major league debut but was only able to log 44 innings on the year due to injury, plus another 18 in the Arizona Fall League. Mitch White and Bowden Francis could be in the mix as well but neither has a lengthy major league track record.

It’s plausible that Rodriguez could factor into that competition and log some innings in 2024. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after the upcoming campaign, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026, which leaves future rotation innings for the Jays to fill. There’s also long-term uncertainty in the bullpen, where Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024. Meanwhile, each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

The Jays have had a somewhat quiet offseason thus far, in terms of completed deals. They’ve been connected to big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but their most notable moves thus far have been to sign utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa and re-sign outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM.

The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. Signing Rodríguez and/or some bats to upgrade the lineup would require them to push the payroll a little farther than it already is while also nudging them past the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and their base tax rate would jump from 20% to 30% as a second-time payor.

Blue Jays Claim Brian Serven Off Waivers From Cubs

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The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed catcher Brian Serven off waivers from the Cubs. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. Toronto’s 40-man roster is now full.

Serven, 29 in May, had spent his entire career with the Rockies until earlier this month. He was claimed off waivers by the Cubs a couple of weeks ago and now changes organizations once again. He had been serving as a depth catcher for Colorado, getting into 73 big league games over the past two seasons. He’s hit just .195/.248/.314 in his first 228 major league plate appearances, though that’s a small sample and he’s fared better at Triple-A. Over the past three years, he has slashed .238/.305/.450 at the top level of the minors.

On the gloveside, Serven has generally been given strong grades. He has five Defensive Runs Saved in his small sample of big league action while each of FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus have looked fondly upon his framing, with BP also liking his receiving in the minors.

The Jays have Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk set to be their catching duo in the big leagues, but they lost depth catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers earlier in the winter. This claim of Serven gives the club a third catcher who still has a pair of option years remaining. He should be able to take regular at-bats in Triple-A until an injury creates a need for him to join the big league club, assuming he hangs onto his 40-man roster spot through the rest of the offseason.

Blue Jays Reportedly “Monitoring” Blake Snell’s Market

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In the aftermath of the offseason’s top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signing with the Dodgers late last month, the market for #2 pitching free agent Blake Snell has begun to pick up. The Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, and Angels have all been connected to Snell in recent weeks and the Yankees are known to have made an offer for the lefty’s services. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides details on that offer, suggesting that while Snell’s camp is seeking “at least $240MM” this winter, the Yankees’ offer came in “nearly $100MM” below that target.

Since those initial connections, both the Giants and Yankees have made rotation additions that might take them out of the market for Snell: The Giants picked up Robbie Ray in trade with the Mariners and signed Jordan Hicks to bolster their rotation mix, while the Yankees added Marcus Stroman to their own starting five. While it’s unclear whether or not either club’s interest in Snell persists beyond those additions, it’s at least fair to say that they’re in a less desperate position regarding starting pitcher than they were a few weeks ago. Even if those two clubs are no longer part of Snell’s market, however, Nightengale suggests that there are “several” teams that remain engaged with Snell’s camp in hopes his hefty price tag will drop as the offseason continues. In particular, he notes that the Blue Jays “have been quietly monitoring” Snell throughout his free agency.

Toronto would be something of a surprising fit for Snell. While the club was among the finalists involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, the club has seemed to eschew a more general foray into the pitching side of free agency this winter in favor of bolstering a lineup that lost Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Brandon Belt to free agency this winter after key bats such as George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. under-performed in 2023. By contrast, starting pitching proved to be a notable strength of the Blue Jays’ roster last season as the club was led by ace righty Kevin Gausman and saw strong rebound campaigns from both Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios after difficult seasons in 2022.

With that being said, the Blue Jays made clear they had money to spend this winter with their strong bid for the services of Shohei Ohtani last month and the club’s recent additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa make a strong pursuit of Cody Bellinger or Chapman, the offseason’s best remaining positional free agents, less likely than they appeared to be earlier this winter. With money available and few clear fits in free agency to spend it on, a pursuit of Snell could place Toronto’s rotation firmly among the best in the game. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Snell led the majors with a sterling 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work last season and would create an enviable duo at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Gausman.

A pursuit of Snell would also provide the Jays with protection against potential injury or ineffectiveness that they lack after veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu departed for free agency back in November. While the club’s rotation looks strong on paper, a regression from Kikuchi or Berrios or continued struggles from Alek Manoah after an abysmal 2023 campaign could hamper the club’s ability to emerge from a competitive AL East with a playoff spot next season. Even Chris Bassitt, despite serving as one of the most reliable mid-rotation starters in the game in recent years, threw a career-high 200 frames last year across 33 starts and is entering his age-35 season in 2024. While top prospect Rickey Tiedemann could factor into the club’s rotation mix sometime next season and provide the depth the club’s starting five currently lacks, the addition of another quality rotation piece such as Snell would take pressure off of a 21-year-old hurler with just four innings of work at the Triple-A level headed into what could be his rookie campaign.

Of course, adding a bat-first player to the club’s beleaguered offense is surely a higher priority than a pursuit of any pitcher, and the club may prefer to keep its financial powder dry with an eye on a robust free agent class next offseason that currently projects to include offensive stars such as Juan Soto, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Nightengale seemingly indicates that the Blue Jays don’t have interest in adding Snell at his current, hefty asking price, and even if the price on his services does drop its likely a rotation-needy club such as the Red Sox or Angels would have more incentive to win a bidding war than Toronto. If the Blue Jays are hoping to add depth to their rotation without breaking the bank, pursuing a hurler capable of swinging between the rotation and the bullpen such as Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, or previously-rumored target Yariel Rodriguez could provide the club with additional depth while leaving the door open to a pursuit of Bellinger, Chapman, or any of next winter’s star free agents.

Blue Jays Interested In Jorge Soler

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The Blue Jays have shown interest in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  Toronto joins the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Nationals, and Marlins as clubs linked to Soler’s market at various points this winter.

It isn’t any surprise that the Jays have joined the fray, as Toronto has reportedly been looking into numerous free agent and trade options on the position-player side.  With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto now off the board, the Blue Jays’ adds have been limited to more defense-oriented pickups like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, rather than any clear upgrades to what was a middling lineup in 2023.  Speaking with the media earlier this week, GM Ross Atkins said the Blue Jays might add perhaps just one more bat, “most likely be in the outfield or DH category.”

Soler fits that description, moreso as a designated hitter than as a viable regular in the outfield.  Soler has made only 89 appearances in the outfield for the Marlins over the last two seasons, operating as a part-time left fielder in 2022 and then a part-time right fielder in 2023.  Public defensive metrics have never liked Soler’s work in right field but he has been slightly closer to passable over his more limited experience of 875 career innings as a left fielder.

Since Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho are both left-handed hitters, a scenario exists where the right-handed hitting Soler could see some action in left field when a southpaw is on the mound, with one of Kiermaier/Varsho moving to the bench and the other playing in the center field.  As much as the Jays have prioritized defense over the last year, if Soler could match his 2022 left field numbers (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, -2.5 UZR/150) with his strong offensive numbers from 2023, that’s probably a tradeoff the Blue Jays would be happy to accept, especially since Soler would still be spending more of his time as a DH.

Soler hit .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs over 580 plate appearances for Miami last season, translating to a 126 wRC+.  It was a good enough year for Soler to exercise the opt-out clause in his deal, as he chose free agency and the promise of a larger contract over the one year and $13MM remaining on his Marlins contract.  Soler originally signed a three-year, $36MM pact with the Fish in the 2021-22 offseason but stumbled to a 95 wRC+ during an injury-marred 2022 campaign.

Though better health was a logical reason for Soler’s bounceback year, it also continued the pattern of inconsistency that has marked Soler’s 10 Major League seasons.  Breaking into the majors as a heavily-hyped prospect in the Cubs system, Soler has a 119 wRC+ over his career, bolstered by particularly strong offensive showings in 2018, 2019 (when he led the AL with 48 homers), and last season.  However, between his defensive showcomings and several other seasons when he has provided closer to league-average offense, Soler has only 7.4 fWAR to show for his 870 career games in the Show.

Perhaps the 2021 season is the best summation of Soler’s roller-coaster nature and high ceiling, as he struggled with the Royals before being traded to the Braves at the 2021 deadline.  The switch was suddenly flipped, as Soler went on a tear after joining the Braves and earned World Series MVP honors as Atlanta captured the championship.  Soler isn’t exactly a sure thing at the plate as he enters his age-32 season, and MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of a three-year, $45MM deal (Soler ranked 16th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) reflected this uncertainty about his offense, and his lack of defensive utility.

Still, at this relatively modest price tag, Soler might be something of a bargain if he keeps hitting as he did in 2023, and the move out of spacious loanDepot Park might also help Soler’s efforts.  As per Statcast’s Park Factor metrics, however, Toronto’s Rogers Centre was only slightly more hitter-friendly than loanDepot Park in 2023, which could deflect any combination of the Blue Jays’ lack of hitting, their strong pitching and defense, or some effects of the new outfield dimensions created by the Jays’ renovations to their ballpark.

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