Uncategorized News & Rumors

Tigers righty Justin Verlander told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press he's yet to receive a long-term contract offer from the club.  Still, interest appears mutual.

Verlander would prefer to work out his 2010 salary before entering long-term discussions.  With Joe Blanton locked up, Verlander's $2.6MM gap with the Tigers is second only to Tim Lincecum's $5MM divide among those exchanging arbitration figures.  I mentioned yesterday on Twitter that I found Verlander's $9.5MM request to be high.  My comparison to Felix Hernandez's second arbitration year salary was flawed, since that wouldn't factor into an arbitration hearing.  A better match might be Andy Pettitte.  Here's how the two stack up after four seasons, keeping in mind arbitration panels focus on simple stats like wins:

• Verlander:  840 IP, 132 GS, 65 wins, 3.92 ERA, 746 Ks
• Pettitte: 852.6 IP, 127 GS, 67 wins, 3.75 ERA,  588 Ks

Pettitte received a 56.6% raise heading into the 1999 season.  Verlander had a better platform year, more strikeouts, and better award finishes, Pettitte the superior ERA.  Even a 70% raise would put Verlander at $6.25MM in 2010, though the Tigers would only have to convince the panel he deserves less than $8.2MM to win.

This may all be moot, as the Tigers will probably want to avoid a hearing given their desire to lock Verlander up long-term.  If they settle near the midpoint, Verlander's aggressive filing will pay off.  As for a multiyear contract, Verlander acknowledged he's "closely mirrored" to Felix, whose five-year, $78MM pact will be made official today.  Verlander does not want to negotiate during the season.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick looks at the prominent remaining free agents in his column today.  He goes position-by-position, outlining who's out there and which teams might be looking.  If you enjoy playing free agent matchmaker, it's a must-read.  Crasnick's main point: "Roster spots are like gold, and dozens of players with legitimate aspirations are being forced to downsize their expectations."

Here’s a page to bookmark – Maury Brown’s chart of 2010 arbitration filings over at The Biz of Baseball.  The biggest gaps: Tim Lincecum at $5MM, Joe Blanton at $2.75MM, Justin Verlander at $2.6MM, and Wandy Rodriguez at $2MM.  Obviously there is some disagreement on the appropriate salary for a top-tier starter.

With the bigger free agent names off the board, many MLBTR readers are already looking ahead and trying to predict which big names will be available for trade during the summer.  Here's our take.

Anything's possible, but I'd consider the Indians, Pirates, and Padres three clubs unlikely to contend in 2010.  I also get the impression Mark Shapiro, Neal Huntington, and Jed Hoyer will be realistic and ready to deal if things aren't looking good come June.  With that in mind, some of the more available players this summer might include Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, Jhonny Peralta, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit, Akinori Iwamura, Chris Young, Heath Bell, Kevin Correia, and Adrian Gonzalez.  Obviously Gonzalez would be the one dominating MLBTR.

I'm sure surprises will emerge, but other possible sellers include the Nationals, Orioles, Blue Jays, Reds, Royals, and A's.  Those clubs might make the following players available: Adam Dunn, Cristian Guzman, Kevin Millwood, Lyle Overbay, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Gil Meche, David DeJesus, Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, and Coco Crisp.  It's far from a complete list.

Other intriguing midseason trade candidates: Brandon Webb, Carl Crawford, Huston Street, and Brad Hawpe.  The D'Backs would probably have to be out of contention to shop Webb, while the Rays and Rockies wouldn't necessarily be waving the white flag.

There are a few blockbuster-type names, longshots for sure, who could be trade bait if extension attempts fail and the teams are out of contention.  For example, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Joe Mauer.

As you know, MLB Trade Rumors has RSS and Twitter feeds that cover all rumors.  For those of you who would prefer not to see every rumor, we now have RSS and Twitter feeds by team.  We've also created a Twitter account for the Tranasctions-only feed, for those who only want to see completed deals.  Links are provided after the jump.

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Let's take a look back at the hot stove happenings from January 8-14th, 2009.  So much changes in a year…

• The Mets signed Tim Redding and were preparing an offer for Randy Wolf.  I wonder where Oliver Perez would've gone had the Mets signed Wolf. 
• The Braves signed Kenshin Kawakami to a three-year deal and Derek Lowe for four years.  Those moves led to this winter's Javier Vazquez trade.
• Scott Boras got Willie Bloomquist a two-year deal from the Royals.
• Orlando Cabrera, Juan Cruz, Jason Varitek, Ben Sheets, and others languished in compensation-pick purgatory as Type A free agents who had been offered arbitration.  Currently only Jose Valverde still has this problem.
• The Brewers agreed to terms with Trevor Hoffman on a $6MM deal.  Hoffman leaving San Diego was one of the offseason's biggest surprises.  Another one: the Red Sox signing John Smoltz. The Sox also added Takashi Saito.
• Cliff Lee was open to an extension with the Indians.  Instead, he was traded twice in the year that followed.
• A reminder how quickly a surplus can disappear: the Yankees discussed trading Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady.
• Upon being asked to move to third base, Michael Young requested a trade from the Rangers.
• Adam Dunn was still looking for four years and $56MM.  He settled on two years, $20MM from the Nationals in February.
• Paul Byrd decided to sit out the first half of the season.  Pedro Martinez was weighing possibilities, but ultimately sat out as well.  I'm curious to see who this year's midseason mercenaries will be. 
• The Dodgers prepared to release Andruw Jones.

A look at the moves made so far this winter by AL West clubs…

Angels

• Acquired/re-signed: Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Fernando Rodney, Michael Rocco, Taylor Wilding, Julio Perez, Travis Chick, Gary Patchett, Cory Aldridge, Camilo Vazquez, Nick Gorneault,
• Lost: Darren Oliver, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelvim Escobar, Matt Brown, Bobby Cassevah, David Herndon  

Athletics

• Acquired/re-signed: Coco Crisp, Justin Duchscherer, Jack Cust, Michael Taylor, Dallas McPherson, Aaron Miles, Jake Fox, Bobby Cassevah, Matthew Whitney, Matt Wright, Marcus McBeth, Fernando Hernandez, Cedrick Bowers, Alex Valdez, Trey Webb 
• Lost: Brett Wallace, Chris Denorfia, Bobby Crosby, Jeff Gray, Matthew Spencer, Ronny Morla, Jay Marshall 

Mariners

• Acquired/re-signed: Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman, Ken Griffey Jr., Brandon League, Josh Bard, Chad Cordero, Johermyn Chavez, Yusmeiro Petit, Josh Wilson, Corey Patterson, Kanekoa Texeira, Pedro Okuda, Ryan Langerhans, Chris Woodward, Guillermo Quiroz, Rich Dorman, Steve Bray, Steven Shell, Jose Yepez, Levale Speigner, Chris Seddon, Travis Denker, Mike Koplove, David Pauley, Ralph Henriquez 
• Lost: Adrian Beltre, Brandon Morrow, Kenji Johjima, Justin Thomas, Bryan LaHair, Carlos Silva, Bill Hall, Chris Jakubauskas, Robert Manuel, J.C. Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Roy Corcoran 

Rangers

• Acquired/re-signed: Darren Oliver, Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, Chris Ray, Khalil Greene, Kevin Richardson, Joe Inglett, Clay Rapada, Ben Snyder, Ray Olmedo, Geoff Geary, Matt Brown, Robbie Alcombrack, John Otness  

• Lost: Jason Grilli, Ivan Rodriguez, Eddie Guardado, Marlon Byrd, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood

A look at the moves made so far this offseason by AL Central clubs…

White Sox

• Acquired/re-signed: Mark Teahen, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, J.J. Putz, Freddy Garcia, Juan Pierre, Freddy Dolsi, Jacob Marceaux, Wander Perez, Ryan Braun, Miguel Negron, Dylan Axelrod, Freddie Bynum, T.J. Bohn, Greg Aquino, Erick Threets, Mark Kotsay, Alejandro De Aza 
• Lost: DeWayne Wise, Scott Podsednik, Josh Fields, Chris Getz, Jon Link, John Ely, Wilson Betemit, Jerry Owens 

Indians

• Acquired/re-signed: Brian Buscher, Jason Grilli, Mike Gosling, Anthony Reyes, Mitch Talbot, Luis Rodriguez, Hector Ambriz, Saul Rivera, Shelley Duncan, Austin Kearns, Jose Constanza 
• Lost: Jamey Carroll, Kelly Shoppach, Greg Aquino, Vinnie Chulk, Masahide Kobayashi, Zach Jackson 

Tigers

• Acquired/re-signed: Adam Everett, Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, Enrique Gonzalez, Macay McBride, Robinzon Diaz, Brad Thomas 
• Lost: Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, Clay Rapada, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Freddy Dolsi, Dusty Ryan, Matt Treanor 

Royals

• Acquired/re-signed: Jason Kendall, Brian Anderson, Scott Podsednik, Josh Fields, Chris Getz, John Parrish, Noel Arguelles, Wilson Betemit, Edgar Osuna, Scott Thorman, Reggie Taylor, Cody Clark, Irving Falu, John Bannister, Jorge Campillo, Brad Thompson, Edwin Bellorin, Bryan Bullington, Juan Mora, Josh Rupe, Steve Lerud, Jorge Bonifacio, Buck Coats, Philip Humber, Devon Lowery, Julio Pimentel, Francisco Rosario, Adam Bostick, Bruce Chen, Nelson Payano, Vance Wilson, Ernesto Mejia, Shane Costa, Damon Hollins 
• Lost: Mark Teahen, Lenny DiNardo, Miguel Olivo, Coco Crisp, Tug Hulett, John Buck, Josh Anderson, Tony Pena Jr. 

Twins

• Acquired/re-signed: J.J. Hardy, Carl Pavano, Clay Condrey, Yancarlos Ortiz, Henry Arias, Jose Lugo, Chris Province, Mike Maroth, Brock Peterson 
• Lost: Brian Buscher, Boof Bonser, Carlos Gomez, Armando Gabino, Bobby Keppel, R.A. Dickey, Philip Humber 

Andre Dawson was elected to the Hall of Fame today, the only player selected.  Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Edgar Martinez, and Roberto Alomar fell short.  Congratulations to The Hawk; you can check out his stats here.  Check out the full HOF voting here.

MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list was published on November 9th.  25 of those 50 players have signed.  Here's a list of the remaining 25, with fresh guesses on where they might land.

1.  Matt Holliday – Cardinals.  The market for Holliday this winter proved smaller than expected, making a reunion with the Cards likely.

7.  Jose Valverde – Athletics.  This is a stretch, but I am looking for a team that could offer $6MM and a closing job and not have to surrender their first-round pick.  The Pirates seem to have set their sights on lesser relievers.

9.  Adrian Beltre – Red Sox.  As with J.D. Drew, the Sox seem the team most likely to value this Scott Boras client the way Boras does.  Mike Lowell and the luxury tax stand in Boston's way, but they still appear more likely to offer, say, two years and $18MM than the Orioles, A's, or Mariners are.

12.  Johnny Damon – Yankees.  They're still a logical fit, on a one-year deal in the $6-7MM range.  That's not what Damon and Boras are looking for, but it's hard to find a match beyond possibly the Braves even at that price.

13.  Orlando Hudson – Nationals.  I still like the Nats for Hudson, partially because unlike the Mets and Mariners, they wouldn't have to move an incumbent second baseman to make room.

14.  Miguel Tejada – Twins.  The Orioles, Angels, A's, Astros, and Cardinals strike me as other potential matches for Tejada, who could be a bargain in 2010.

15.  Joel Pineiro – Mets.  Pineiro might be the best available starting pitcher, at least considering only those who were healthy in 2009.  Maybe given the lack of bidders the Mets could get him on a two-year deal.

17.  Aroldis Chapman – Blue Jays.  So much for this being a Red Sox-Yankees battle.  It makes sense for the Jays to continue stocking up on young arms by splurging on Chapman.

19.  Vladimir Guerrero – Orioles. Vlad and Dye have not generated interest outside of the Rangers.  Perhaps the O's will trade Luke Scott and sign Guerrero, but I really can't find a match I like if Dye goes to Texas.

20.  Felipe Lopez – Cardinals.  The market for Lopez has been quiet despite his fine 2009.  Even with a Holliday signing I feel that the Cardinals will spend a few million on a veteran they can plug in at third base.

21.  Adam LaRoche – Mariners.  Andrew Baggarly's December 12th report that LaRoche sought three years and $31.5MM from the Giants has been repeated enough that it almost seems like fact rather than rumor.  That may be unfair to LaRoche.  He's the best available first baseman, but this isn't 2006, and his ultimate price will be much more reasonable.

23. Jon Garland -  Dodgers.  I'm sticking with my original prediction, despite recent interest from the Mets, Rangers, and Twins.  The Dodgers need bulk innings, and they figure to sign one veteran starter.

26.  Erik Bedard – Orioles.  They know him well, and could use a high-upside starter to pair with their Kevin Millwood acquisition.

28.  Bengie Molina – Mets.  It seems fitting that Molina's talks with the Mets would move slowly.  They still seem to be the most interested club, even if they're trying to avoid guaranteeing two years.

33.  Ben Sheets – Angels.  Given the Rangers' signing of Rich Harden, I can't see them adding another big injury risk like Sheets.  Sheets would fit nicely into the Angels' rotation, though you never know if the Mariners will swoop in.

34.  Doug Davis – Twins.  The Mets, Twins, and Brewers could stand to add a back-end innings guy, with lefties Davis and Washburn candidates for one-year deals.

35.  Jarrod Washburn – Brewers.  The Brewers signed Randy Wolf, but would probably like to add one more starter.

36.  Russell Branyan -  Athletics.  Branyan, Delgado, Thome…take your pick on where these 1B/DH types could land.  All three ought to be AL-bound.  Branyan could play first base for the A's when Jake Fox is at DH.

39.  John Smoltz – Mets.  Smoltz fits with many clubs as an intriguing swingman.  The Nationals may be maintaining interest, but I imagine Smoltz wants to play for a competitor.

40.  Jermaine Dye – Rangers.  If the Giants aren't interested, it's difficult to find another match for Dye.

43.  Carlos Delgado – Mets.  Delgado played Sunday night in the Puerto Rican winter league.  The Orioles and Mets seem to have him on the radar.

44.  Orlando Cabrera – Astros.  The Reds and Astros are among few teams that can offer a starting shortstop position.  The Astros seem a little more willing to spend this winter than the Reds.

46.  Jim Thome – White Sox.  He could sign pretty cheaply to return to Chicago.

48.  Xavier Nady - Pirates. The idea of Nady as a regular outfielder seems to be giving teams pause.  A return to the Pirates is one scenario where he could play first regularly and the outfield occasionally.

49.  Kiko Calero – Cubs.  A dozen teams could use Calero, who has generated surprisingly little interest.  I expect the Cubs to add a late-inning arm.