Health Notes: Turner, Kepler, Wong, G. Sanchez
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner suffered a fractured right index finger April 3, and though the speedster made it back in mid-May, he’s nowhere near healthy, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic details (subscription required). The index finger is a “swollen, disjointed mess,” per Ghiroli, whose piece includes quotes from Turner and some Nationals teammates and coaches in regards to his ability to play through it. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who revealed to Ghiroli that Turner also broke his right middle finger, is in awe of the season he has had despite the injury. “I don’t know how he does it. When I messed up my thumb or whatever earlier in the year, you can’t even hold a bat,” said Rendon. “You don’t realize you need to use all your freaking fingers, but he can’t, which is even more impressive.” The Nationals locked up a wild-card spot Tuesday with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies. All Turner did was collect three hits, including two doubles, in Game 1 and then belt a go-ahead grand slam in a come-from-behind victory in the evening.
- Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
- The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
- Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is hoping to return from a groin strain this weekend, James Wagner of the New York Times tweets. That would give Sanchez a bit of time to tune up before the AL East champions’ first-round series. The slugger hasn’t played since Sept. 12, which has left New York’s catcher position to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka.
Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents
The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).
He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.
So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”
Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.
Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.
Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.
Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.
As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.
If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”
With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.
Injury Notes: Suzuki, Adams, Lowe, Freeland
Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki returned to the D.C. lineup tonight for the first time in nearly two weeks, logging a pinch-hit, bases-clearing double in the 10th inning of a game against the Marlins. Though he’s back to swinging a stick for the Wild Card-contending Nats, it isn’t as if he’s altogether healed from the elbow issues that first sidelined him on Sept. 7. As he told Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports, Suzuki is simply going to have to play through pain if he wishes to help his club into October. “Shoot, I’m 35 years old. I’m going to be 36 (on Oct. 4),” the catcher said. “If I get hurt, knock on wood, it’s not going to be just a little rest thing…At the same time, I don’t know how many times I’m going to have the opportunity to get to the playoffs.”
If Suzuki’s ongoing presence is a question of pain tolerance, the Nats should be sure to have plenty of aspirin on hand for the veteran backstop. After all, his .260/..319/.473 line (100 wRC+) through 301 plate appearances this year is vastly superior to the output offered by teammate Yan Gomes in 2019 (.221/.316/.370 slash in 329 plate appearances).
More notes about athletes dealing with their own share of September pain…
- As noted by Greg Johns of MLB.com, Mariners reliever Austin Adams crumpled into a heap after tweaking his knee while covering first base in tonight’s game against the Orioles (link). Adams, 28, had to be helped off of the field by trainers. After kicking around the Angels and Nationals organizations since being drafted in 2012, Adams had appeared to find a comfortable home with Seattle in 2019. In his first prolonged big league exposure, the righty has logged a whopping 15.06 K/9 rate in 31.2 innings this year, with solid ERA (3.98) and FIP (3.12) indicators.
- Rays youngster Brandon Lowe was back in uniform and manning second base today–albeit only in a sim game. Still, manager Kevin Cash thinks the rookie is almost ready to return from a left quad strain that has sidelined him since being injured in a rehab appearance in late July. “He’s close,” Cash told Juan Toribio of MLB.com (link). “I saw a video of him going first to third, and he’s running a lot better. I’m not going to say he’s back to his normal speed yet — he’s going to have to manage that whenever he does get activated — but we’re encouraged that the at-bats have been really good, the defense has been really good, it’s just running and getting out of the box and us having enough trust in him that he can manage that.” Lowe hasn’t played since July 2nd, when leg issues first befell him. Because Lowe is on the 60-day IL, the team would have to clear a 40-man spot to facilitate his return.
- Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been activated by the club and started tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Logging two scoreless innings in something of an “opener” capacity this evening, Freeland penned something of a modestly positive chapter in what has been an otherwise forgettable 2019 saga. With a sky-high 6.98 ERA (6.13 FIP) in 99.1 innings entering tonight’s game, Freeland has been a chief culprit in Colorado’s ’19 pitching woes. Interestingly, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post penned a column today examining baseball’s offensive explosion in 2019, citing Freeland as one player who will be difficult to evaluate this offseason in part because of the possible “juiced” quality of this year’s baseball (link). Said Saunders: “In my opinion, the “juiced baseball” really hurt Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland this season. I’m not making excuses for Freeland’s 6.98 ERA and 25 home runs served up in 20 starts, because he was clearly off his game and his mechanics were out of whack. But I also think it’s true that Freeland became a little gun shy because his slider wasn’t breaking as it should and he gave up a number of cheap home runs.” There may be some merit to this thinking. Freeland posted a 22.9% HR/FB rate this season while home run records were shattered league-wide.
NL East Notes: Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Kendrick
With the Marlins reaching the vaunted 100-loss mark, CEO Derek Jeter spoke on Friday about his team’s approach to the impending offseason, with the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson speculating on what the winter may hold. This season, the club ranked second-to-last in payroll, dishing out just $70MM in total salary expenditures. However, with Martin Prado slated to hit free agency and the team likely to decline Starlin Castro‘s club option, a considerable portion of that number will come off the books following the season, leaving the Marlins with just about $31MM in guaranteed contracts for the 2020 season, per Roster Resource. That number will rise as the team inks players under team control, but the point stands that the Fish will have significant room to seek upgrades in the offseason. After a trade deadline that saw them bolster the farm system through the acquisitions of Lewin Diaz, Jazz Chisholm, and Jesus Sanchez, the Marlins now find themselves with one of the Majors’ better farm systems, featuring a solid crop of position-player prospects, though few in that group will be ready to contribute in the coming season. With that in mind, Jeter sees his team as needing to strike a balance between seeking positional upgrades and developing youngsters: “You want to give [prospects] enough time to continue to develop but you don’t want to block their way,” he said on Friday. The team has needs all over the diamond, though outfield, first base, and the bullpen stand out as perhaps the most glaring. Jackson lists a number of potential free-agent targets to keep an eye on, including big-name hitters with south Florida roots like Jose Abreu and Nicholas Castellanos; however, it remains uncertain whether the team will target big fish, since projections of increased revenue have yet to actualize, though attendance-related issues may be remedied by making a splash in the offseason.
Here are the latest tidbits from the ever-competitive NL East…
- Just over a week ago, the Mets found themselves at the heart of quite a controversy when Mets starter Noah Syndergaard expressed his proclivity for catchers not named Wilson Ramos, who has been the most productive hitter out of the Mets’ catching group. For the first time, Ramos offered his thoughts on the situation, as relayed by Mike Puma of the New York Post. Evidently, the veteran catcher isn’t bothered by the drama, understanding that there are times when pitchers feel a heightened comfort with a particular catcher. Ramos, who’s been around since 2010, is certainly no stranger to the dynamics of a big-league clubhouse and is instead choosing to focus his energy on getting the Mets into the postseason. Coming off a win last night, his club finds themselves 3.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot with nine games left to play—a deficit that, while not insurmountable, makes them a longshot to play in October. After making a pair of starts with Ramos behind the dish, Syndergaard got his wish on Wednesday, when he threw to Rene Rivera, though that combination didn’t yield much better results. With his next start scheduled to come on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see whether Mickey Callaway turns again to Ramos.
- One of the unsung heroes of the Nationals bid for the postseason has been veteran Howie Kendrick, who has excelled as a pinch-hitter and occasional infielder. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports writes, he’s enjoying a career year that might not have happened if he weren’t under contract for 2019 following an Achilles tear suffered early last season. Of course, the free agent market has been notoriously cruel to players in their 30s, and Kendrick, 36, may not have gotten another chance in the Majors after such a significant injury. However, with a $4MM salary already in place for 2019 after inking a two-year deal with Washington, Kendrick has carved out a nice role and now projects to play an instrumental part in a potential Nats playoff run, all while setting himself up to draw interest for yet another contract this coming offseason.
Dave Martinez Returns To Nationals
Sept. 20: The Nationals announced Friday that Martinez will return to the dugout for tonight’s game.
Sept. 17: Martinez has been released from the hospital and is resting at home, general manager Mike Rizzo told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). He’s waiting to be cleared to travel and won’t join the club for its current series.
Sept. 16: Nationals manager Dave Martinez, who left yesterday’s game after experiencing chest discomfort, remains in Washington, D.C. for further testing, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report. MLBTR extends its best wishes to Martinez for an optimistic prognosis and speedy recovery.
It isn’t known how long Martinez will be out of action, but he did not travel with the team to St. Louis. Martinez, who was was hospitalized as a precautionary measure, underwent an exploratory cardiac catheterization procedure. He is continuing to receive medical evaluation.
For the most part, then, the Nationals are simply awaiting word from Martinez and his doctors. Bench coach Chip Hale, a former manager himself, will fill in while Martinez is sidelined.
With the Nats trying to close out a postseason appearance, the hope certainly seems to be that Martinez will return to uniform in relatively short order — though obviously his personal health will take priority. Hale says that he spoke with his colleague and found him to be in good spirits; indeed, Martinez texted a lineup to his temporary fill-in.
Health Notes: Hill, Pham, Nats, Padres
Let’s check in on a few notable health situations from around the majors…
- Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill‘s strained left MCL looked like a possible season-ender when it happened last week, but the 39-year-old will manage to rejoin the club before the playoffs. The plan is for Hill to take a major league mound again next Tuesday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets. Although he has missed a substantial amount of time this year, Hill has yet again been one of the Dodgers’ most effective starters in 2019. It’s unclear how much length he’ll be able to give the team for the rest of the season, though. Manager Dave Roberts told Gurnick and other reporters that the Dodgers’ pitching situation for Game 4 of the NLDS – which Hill had been lined up to start – looks “cloudy.” The team expects to take an “unconventional” route with its pitching staff in that contest, Roberts added. Of course, if the Dodgers sweep their first-round opponent in three games, it’ll prove to be a moot point.
- If the Rays weren’t in the American League playoff race, banged up outfielder Tommy Pham would “one thousand percent” have shut it down for the season by now, he said (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Pham’s dealing with injuries to his right hand and elbow that don’t figure to heal until the offseason, and he hasn’t been a consistent presence in the Rays’ lineup lately as a result. But Pham has nonetheless been productive in his recent appearances and throughout the season, as he owns a .276/.373/.455 line with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases (25 attempts) in 616 plate appearances.
- Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki has been out with right elbow troubles since Sept. 7, and a return still doesn’t look imminent. While Suzuki is able to hit and catch again, he remains “days away” from receiving clearance to throw, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. Suzuki seems optimistic he’ll be back sometime soon, but meanwhile, the playoff-contending Nats will continue to rely almost exclusively on Yan Gomes behind the plate.
- The Padres have shut 20-year-old reliever Andres Munoz down for the season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The rookie righty tossed a professional-high 58 2/3 innings this season between the majors and minors, more than doubling the previous best of 24 2/3 he logged at the lower levels a year ago. Munoz impressed in 23 frames with the Padres this season, as he notched a 3.91 ERA/3.17 FIP with 11.74 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9. Plus, as Acee points out, Munoz’s average fastball velocity of 99.9 mph sits second in the league.
Howie Kendrick Is Still Killing The Ball
It was June 11 that I wrote a piece titled “Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball.” At that point in 2019, the veteran National had quietly been one of the majors’ most effective hitters of the season. Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances, and though there may have been skepticism in regards to the 36-year-old’s early season excellence, he hasn’t let up over the past two months. The fact that Kendrick hasn’t slowed down has helped Washington rebound from a forgettable start to become the favorite to take the top wild-card spot in the National League.
Although the Nationals lost to the Cardinals on Wednesday, they’re still a game up on the league’s fourth seed. And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA. Among hitters who have walked to the plate 300-plus times this year, the infielder ranks second in average, 13th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage. His wRC+, 146, ties him with teammate/superstar Juan Soto for 13th in the league and also places him among the likes of Mets NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso and Braves standout Freddie Freeman.
Kendrick’s current production is especially surprising coming from someone who has been closer to an average offensive player than an elite one throughout his career. That’s not to say the former Angel, Dodger and Phillie hasn’t been a useful player since he debuted in 2006 – he has, evidenced in part by his 32.5 rWAR/31.1 fWAR – but Kendrick has clearly found another gear this season.
As was the case a couple months ago, Kendrick’s 2019 output doesn’t look like a fluke. On the contrary, he has continued to make more damaging contact than just about every hitter in the game. Kendrick’s .424 expected weighted on-base average is tied for third in the sport with Astros Rookie of the Year-to-be Yordan Alvarez. The only players better in that category have been the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, two serious MVP candidates. Kendrick has been similarly tremendous in other key Statcast categories, as he sits in baseball’s 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), its 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent), its 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.608) and its 100th percentile in expected batting average (.330). Can’t argue with that.
So why the newfound dominance from a player who entered the year as a lifetime .291/.334/.422 hitter? An increased emphasis on power has been key. The right-handed Kendrick has hit more fly balls and gone to left field more than at just about any other point since he came into the majors. Those factors have helped produce 16 home runs, Kendrick’s second-highest total, and a personal-best .234 ISO that’s almost 100 points above his career mark of .137. And Kendrick hasn’t sold out for his uptick in power by striking out more. Instead, he has fanned in a career-low 13.7 percent of plate appearances, swung and missed a personal-best 7.3 percent of the time and posted a matching walk percentage of 7.3. For reference, Kendrick came into 2019 with strikeout, swinging-strike and walk rates of 17.4, 9.8 and 5.3, respectively.
If there’s one way to attempt to pooh-pooh Kendrick’s numbers, it’s by citing his sky-high batting average on balls in play. On paper, it would be difficult to count on Kendrick replicating his .357 mark in that department in future years – especially considering the former stolen base threat lacks speed nowadays. That said, Kendrick has been known for running unsustainable-looking BABIPs throughout his career (.341 lifetime), so it would seem unwise to expect the mark to dramatically plummet going forward.
With just under two weeks left in the regular season, it’s apparent Kendrick is going to wrap up the campaign with pristine production. Whenever it does end for the potentially playoff-bound Nationals, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an earnest effort to keep Kendrick in the fold heading into 2020. The free agent-to-be is just a year removed from suffering a catastrophic injury – a ruptured right Achilles – but Kendrick now looks better than ever. Even though he’s an aging player in a game that’s becoming increasingly younger, Kendrick shouldn’t have difficulty finding a guaranteed contract beyond this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL Notes: Voth, Haseley, Lyles
We’ll check in some NL postseason hopefuls with two weeks to play in the regular season.
- Nationals right-hander Austin Voth has pitched himself into strong consideration for a spot on the club’s postseason roster as a multi-inning reliever, manager Dave Martinez tells Mark Zuckerman of MASN. Voth has started six of his seven MLB appearances this year, but he’s thus far maxed out at 80 pitches in September as he continues to build back up from a bout of biceps tendinitis. Working 4-5 innings at a time has clicked for Voth, who has put up a 16:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings this month. The Nats’ bullpen has taken its share of heat all season, so it isn’t surprising to hear Martinez contemplating giving the hot hand some important innings. Washington hasn’t yet locked down a postseason berth, of course, but Fangraphs gives them a 93.4% chance of getting to the NL Wild Card game.
- Washington’s NL East rival Philadelphia hasn’t completely closed the book on 2019, although they’re in a decidedly less favorable position. Sitting 3.5 games out in the Wild Card race with three teams to jump, Philly’s down to a 1.6% shot at the promised land, again per Fangraphs. With that in mind, the Athletic’s Matt Gelb takes a look at the Phillies’ outfield outlook for 2020, specifically through the lens of rookie Adam Haseley. The former eighth overall pick’s .263/.328/.413 slash (92 wRC+) doesn’t jump off the page at first glance, but Gelb notes it’s a surprisingly solid season for a player who was forced to the majors after just 18 Triple-A games due to unexpected developments among the big league club. The Citizens Bank Park grass could become jumbled again in 2020, depending on how the club handles Odúbel Herrera post-suspension and how they deploy utilityman Scott Kingery. It’s a worthwhile read (subscription only) for Philly fans turning their attention to next spring.
- The Brewers have climbed back to within one game of the Cubs in the NL Wild Card race, and Jordan Lyles is a big reason why, observes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted two weeks ago that Lyles’ deadline acquisition from the division-rival Pirates was proving to be a quiet boon for the Brew Crew, and the tall righty has chipped in three sterling starts since then. As McCalvy notes, Lyles has made only small changes to his repertoire post-trade; indeed, catcher Yasmani Grandal attributed Lyles’ breakout to improved consistency in pitch execution and better sequencing. Soon to turn 29, Lyles is ticketed for free agency again this winter, where he figures to do better than the $2.05MM deal he wrapped up with Pittsburgh his last go-round.
Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.
By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.
While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.
Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.
The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.
For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.
Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you think Stephen Strasburg will do?
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He'll keep his current deal 52% (2,567)
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He'll opt out 48% (2,386)
Total votes: 4,953
NL Notes: Vazquez, Crick, Tomas, Nats, Cardinals
Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez initiated the fight he and teammate Kyle Crick engaged in Monday, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. The altercation began when Crick declined to turn off music that was playing at his locker when Vazquez asked him to, according to Wilborn. Vazquez then threw the initial punch at Crick after challenging Crick to hit him first. Both players wound up suffering injuries – Crick had to undergo season-ending finger surgery, while Vazquez needed stitches on his nose – and incurring team-imposed fines. The Pirates docked Vazquez $10K and Crick $2,500, but Crick told Wilborn he’s filing a grievance because he was acting in self-defense. “If we were on the street, this would’ve been assault,” Crick said. “I got swung at twice before I swung back.”
As Pittsburgh nears the end of an increasingly disastrous season, let’s check in on a few other NL clubs…
- Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas has owned one of the richest contracts in the organization since he signed a six-year, $68.5MM pact out of Cuba in December 2014. Tomas hasn’t lived up to the considerable hype that accompanied the deal, though, and has spent almost the entire past two seasons at the Triple-A level as a result. As Zach Buchanan of The Athletic explains (subscription required), it doesn’t seem Tomas’ situation will change as he closes out his contract in 2020. Tomas will collect a $17MM salary no matter where he plays next year, but agent Jay Alou told Buchanan that his client is “frustrated” with his status and wants to return to the game’s highest level. That’s probably not going to happen in Arizona, however, in part because the team has concerns over Tomas’ outfield defense. Furthermore, Buchanan writes that the 28-year-old is way down the organizational pecking order at first base, leaving him without an obvious position in a league devoid of a DH. Worsening matters for Tomas, finding a trade partner for an expensive, defensively weak slugger who hasn’t produced much at the plate would be a difficult task for the Diamondbacks. Nevertheless, Alou’s surprised the D-backs haven’t gotten someone to take Tomas. “I just find it difficult there isn’t a team out there willing to pay a little bit of it,” Alou said of his contract.
- Nationals first baseman Matt Adams left the team’s game Thursday with a tweaked triceps, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. The Nationals should know more on Adams’ status Friday. Should Adams miss time, Washington would be without half of its typical first base platoon (Ryan Zimmerman‘s the other member). While Adams has provided the Nats’ offense with 20 home runs, he has nonetheless hit just .226/.278/.475 through 320 plate appearances.
- Standout Cardinals prospect Dylan Carlson had been set to play in the Arizona Fall League this year, but that plan has changed, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Mark Saxon of The Athletic. The soon-to-be 21-year-old outfielder will instead stay in his native California to “work on adding strength,” Saxon writes, as Mozeliak doesn’t think there’s anything more for Carlson to accomplish on the field this season. Carlson, who tore up Double-A and Triple-A this year, could be on the fast track to a major league promotion in early 2020.