- Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is “very close” to making his highly anticipated return, manager Dusty Baker told Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com and other reporters Saturday. Harper, out since Aug. 13 with injuries to his left knee and calf, could be back in Washington’s lineup as early as Monday, per Zuckerman. That would give the superstar a week to readjust to game action before the Nationals’ NLDS matchup against a to-be-determined opponent (likely the Cubs).
Nationals Rumors
Latest On Shawn Kelley
Shawn Kelley left during the eighth inning of last night’s Nationals game due to an arm injury that left him with a badly-swollen right hand. “Just on that last pitch I felt something go down through my arm and my hand swelled up a bit,” Kelley told media, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. “I just didn’t feel like I could pitch another pitch honestly. I couldn’t really grip the ball. I motioned for somebody to come out because I knew it wasn’t good.” Kelley will meet with doctors today to evaluate the problem, which is particularly ominous given that Kelley has twice undergone Tommy John surgery. The veteran right-hander has had two separate DL stints due to a bad back and a trap strain, and these injury issues have very likely impacted Kelley’s subpar performance. Kelley has a 7.27 ERA over 26 innings this season, with huge spikes in his homer rate and hard-hit ball rate. As Janes notes, Kelley may not have made the Nats’ playoff roster even if healthy, though the team will have one less bullpen option to choose from if Kelley is indeed hurt.
Nationals Notes: Harper, Vuckovich, Romero
Bryce Harper is slowly progressing toward a return to the Nationals, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Harper ran the bases lightly on Tuesday, fielded some grounders and also hit in a simulated game against Nationals minor leaguers Brigham Hill and Sterling Sharp (no, not that Sterling Sharpe). Both manager Dusty Baker and GM Mike Rizzo were cautiously optimistic about Harper’s progress, with the latter stating that it’s “conceivable” that the former NL MVP could return to the team before the conclusion of the regular season. Baker suggested that another simulated game could be in store for Harper this week, though the Nats will closely monitor how Harper responds to yesterday’s workout today. Janes also provides updates on Stephen Drew and Brian Goodwin, though neither appears as close to returning as Harper.
More on the Nats…
- The Post’s Jorge Castillo, meanwhile, reports that the Nationals have hired former American League Cy Young winner Pete Vuckovich as a special assistant to general manager Mike Rizzo (Twitter link). Vuckovich has previously held special assistant roles in the Pirates’ front office and the Mariners’ front office, and Castillo notes that he’s spent the past couple of seasons working as a pro scout in the Diamondbacks organization. Vuckovich spent parts of 11 seasons pitching for the Brewers, Cardinals, White Sox and Blue Jays.
- In a second column, Janes examines the Nationals’ selection of left-hander Seth Romero with the 25th overall pick in this year’s draft, noting that his off-field issues make the selection a departure from the norm for the team. Washington typically stays away from players with off-field issues, and Romero had plenty heading into the draft, having been kicked off the University of Houston team after receiving a pair of suspensions (the latter of the two, reportedly, for failing a drug test and being photographed in uniform holding a bong). Assistant GM Doug Harris, though, tells Janes that the Nats aren’t treating Romero any differently than the rest of their prospects. “He’s going to be given a chance like any other player to come in here and let us know who he is,” says Harris, later adding that Romero hasn’t had any issues in his first few months with the club. Romero himself tells Janes that he considers those problems to be behind him and is working to distance himself from that perception.
Nationals Have Plenty Of Outfield Depth Behind Bryce Harper
- The Nationals’ recent promotion of top prospect Victor Robles underscores just how many outfield options the team will have even if Bryce Harper departs via free agency following the 2018 season, Rosenthal says. In addition to Robles, they have Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin, all of whom are under team control for the next several seasons, plus another top young prospect in Juan Soto.
Nationals Considering Victor Robles For Postseason Roster
- As the Nationals continue to consider their options for the postseason roster, young outfielder Victor Robles is receiving real consideration, manager Dusty Baker tells reporters including Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The 20-year-old was something of an unexpected call-up, but is off to a hot start … in just ten plate appearances. There’s a long way to go until the Nats will feel comfortable entrusting a significant role to him when the stakes are highest, but it’s interesting to see that there’s real internal consideration given the team’s rather lengthy list of possible bench pieces. One major factor, of course, will be whether Bryce Harper can make it back; recent indications are that the team is cautiously optimistic.
Nationals Notes: Harper, Glover, Drew
The Nationals have the NL East locked up, but there are still several question marks surrounding their eventual playoff roster. Some health updates on the NL East champs…
- Bryce Harper wouldn’t speculate on a return date when speaking to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended), but the Nats anticipate that he’ll be ready for the postseason. Harper ran on the warning track yesterday, and hitting coach Rick Schu tells Rosenthal that the team will fly players up from its instructional league in West Palm Beach to get Harper some at-bats against live pitching. (Harper and the Nats don’t want to use the team’s current pitchers for that, so as to preserve all arms for the postseason.) “If I can feel good about running on my knee, that’s the biggest thing,” said Harper. “I’ll hunt pitches, hunt the ones I can hit. You’re never going to be ‘ready-ready’ until you get those at-bats.”
- Right-hander Koda Glover, who served as the team’s closer earlier this season, tweeted yesterday that he won’t be able to return from a right shoulder impingement yesterday. However, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that there’s not yet any indication that the injury will require offseason surgery for the 24-year-old. Janes notes that Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Albers and Oliver Perez look like locks to make the roster, while the final bullpen spots are a bit murkier. She also runs down each of the team’s remaining options and some reasons for and against each. As for Glover, his season will come to a close with just 19 1/3 innings in the books. He logged a mere 5.12 ERA in that time and has a 5.08 ERA in 39 career big league frames, though the Nats seemingly remain bullish on the hard-throwing righty’s long-term potential.
- The Post’s Jorge Castillo writes that while Stephen Drew will very likely require offseason surgery to repair an abdominal muscle that he tore off the bone, Drew is still working toward a late-September return. “I’m going to give every opportunity to myself to be able to play,” said the 34-year-old Drew. “And if I can’t do, I’ll tell whoever. I’ll tell these guys. For now, our goal is to see how we progress and go from there.” Manager Dusty Baker tells Castillo that it would be “a miracle” if Drew is able to return to the field this season, given his injury. As Castillo points out, Drew would hardly be a lock for the postseason roster even if he could return when eligible on Sept. 24 (or any point thereafter), as Wilmer Difo has emerged as a quality bench option for Baker.
Gio Gonzalez’s 2018 Option Vests
While it’s largely a formality at this point, Gio Gonzalez is now officially under contract with the Nationals for 2018. His $12MM option vested once he reached 180 innings pitched, which he did by retiring Braves leadoff man Ender Inciarte tonight.
The option year is the final one on the extension that Gonzalez signed not long after being acquired by the Nats in advance of the 2012 season. It guaranteed him $42MM over five years, but he also will have earned another $24MM over the two option seasons.
Gonzalez has had his ups and downs, but on the whole has returned huge value to the Nats on the trade and the contract. He has provided over one thousand innings of 3.43 ERA ball over six seasons in D.C. And Gonzaez has never been more effective than in 2017. Entering tonight’s outing, he carried a sparkling 2.50 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
Given that performance, the Nationals will be plenty happy to fork over another twelve million bucks to Gonzalez, who’ll turn 32 in a week. That’s not to say, though, that he’s anything close to a sure thing to repeat his outstanding campaign. Gonzalez has lost quite a bit of velocity — 1.5 mph down from last year and 3.5 mph from his 2012 peak — and carries a lower swinging-strike rate (8.7%) than ever before as a National.
Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals
With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.
Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:
- Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
- Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
- Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
- Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
- Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
- Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
- Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
- Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
- Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
- Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
- Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.
Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.
Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.
Nationals Promote Victor Robles
1:58pm: Washington has announced the move. Outfielders Rafael Bautista and Andrew Stevenson will accompany Robles to the majors after receiving some MLB time earlier, which will leave the club with an abundance of outfield possibilities over the next few weeks.
The Nats moved righty Erick Fedde to the 60-day DL to clear the needed roster space. Washington decided to give Robles a chance when Goodwin suffered a setback, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets.
1:20pm: In a surprise move, the Nationals will promote top outfield prospect Victor Robles, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll require a 40-man roster spot when the move is formalized.
Robles, who’s still just twenty years of age, has yet to play above the Double-A level. But the Dominican native, who signed for only $225K back in 2013, is widely regarded as one of the game’s ten or so best overall prospects, with scouts widely praising his across-the-board gifts.
Certainly, Robles has done nothing this year to detract from that lofty status. He continued to produce after earning a promotion to the penultimate level of the minors after opening the year at High-A. Through 496 total plate appearances on the season, Robles carries a .300/.382/.493 batting line with ten home runs and 27 steals.
Notably, Robles did not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft over the coming offseason, so he would not have needed a 40-man spot this winter. And the Nats have little need for an extra player over the final weeks of the season with a division title almost secured already, which hints at other motives.
The move seemingly suggests, rather, that Robles is expected to factor in the team’s plans for the near future. While it’d rate as a surprise were he to play his way onto the postseason roster this season, perhaps that can’t be ruled out. With Jayson Werth set to reach free agency at the end of the year, it’s also conceivable that Robles could stake a claim to a job for 2018.
Perhaps the likeliest scenario, though, would be for Robles to follow the path of Trea Turner, who returned to the minors to open the 2016 season after getting his first cup of coffee in 2015. Robles has spent most of his professional career in center field, making him an ideal fit for the near-future Nats roster. While the club will expect Adam Eaton to be fully healthy in 2018, he’s best utilized in a corner spot. Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin could make for a solid platoon pairing in center if they can sustain some of the strides they’ve shown this year, so there shouldn’t be too much immediate pressure on Robles to prove himself a permanent fixture, but nobody would complain if the young phenom forces the team’s hand.
NL Injury Notes: Imhof, Goldschmidt, Ahmed, Carpenter, Fedde
Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer sat down with former Phillies pitching prospect Matt Imhof to discuss the tragic accident that derailed his once-promising career and left him without his right eye. His journey offers worthwhile lessons to everyone, especially those with a passion for baseball.
Here are the latest updates on injury situations from around the National League:
- The Diamondbacks are awaiting the results of an MRI on the right elbow of star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Goldschmidt himself suggests he’s not too concerned about the discomfort he has experienced in the joint — he describes it as tightness that recedes once he has loosened up — though the team is surely wise to take a proactive approach with such a key player.
- Meanwhile, Diamondbacks infielder Nick Ahmed will undergo surgery after suffering a fractured wrist, as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweets. Odds are, then, that he’s done for the year after twice suffering broken bones on pitched balls. The 27-year-old will qualify for arbitration this fall, though his injury-shortened season and lack of offensive output will tamp down on his earning power quite a bit. In just over three hundred total major league games, Ahmed has established himself as a quality defender but owns only a .226/.273/.345 batting line with twenty home runs.
- The Cardinals are dealing with a few position-player injuries, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Infielder Matt Carpenter will likely undergo an MRI and may also require an injection to deal with ongoing shoulder issues. It seems those problems have nagged Carpenter all season long, though it became a particular problem during yesterday’s contest and may now require some rest. Outfielder Tommy Pham is also dealing with some shoulder difficulties, though he’s not expected to miss time at this point.
- Nationals righty Erick Fedde will be shut down for the rest of the season after he was diagnosed with a strained flexor mass, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. Though GM Mike Rizzo explained that the injury isn’t all that worrisome — the strain occurred away from the elbow joint, which is not damaged — the club decided the time was right to put its best pitching prospect on ice. Fedde, 24, is generally seen as the organization’s top pitching prospect, though he has gone through some struggles over the second half of this season since moving up to Triple-A and then on to the majors. Depending upon the club’s offseason moves, Fedde could challenge for a rotation or bullpen spot next spring.
