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East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

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Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard’s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…

  • Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
  • Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.

Outfielder Notes: Kirilloff, Kiermaier, Robles

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Twins top outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff has a definite chance to make the opening day roster, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Not unrelated, the Twins should face a fair amount of outside pressure to get Kirilloff on the roster from day one. Especially in the aftermath of Mariners’ CEO Kevin Mather openly copping to service time manipulation, it would be poor optics for the Twins to suggest Kirilloff needs more development time. After all, if he was ready to make his Major League debut in the playoffs last season – when service time is not accrued – one would think he is ready to make the lineup for games in April. That said, the 23-year-old former first round pick had not played about Double-A before going 1-for-4 against the Astros during the wild card series. Even so, all signs point to Kirilloff starting the season in the starting lineup. Minnesota let Eddie Rosario walk in free agency in part to make room, and with Royce Lewis being lost for the 2021 season due to injury, the Twins might feel some urgency to “carpe diem,” as it were, and make the most of Kirilloff’s window. Without him, Jorge Polanco probably plays second base while Luis Arraez could slide to the outfield. Elsewhere on the grass…

  • The Rays are cautiously easing Kevin Kiermaier into action this spring, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Kiermaier is experiencing hip soreness, and the Rays don’t want the issue lingering into the season. Kiermaier has dealt with a number of “lingering” health issues over the years that’s limited his playing time. Kiermaier was largely healthy in 2020, appearing in 49 games and slashing .217/.321/.362 before notching some big hits in the postseason, including three home runs. Of course, Kiermaier’s value proposition has never been hit bat. The three-time gold glove centerfielder is the linchpin of the Rays’ defensive scheme. They’ve made sure to acquire rangy outfielders to flank him in recent years (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brett Phillips), but Kiermaier remains the best defender of the bunch.
  • It’s been well-documented now that Victor Robles’ attempt to add muscle for the 2020 season might have played a part in his diminished defensive metrics. He still managed 2 outs above average by Statcast’s measure, while -4 DRS and -3.6 UZR painted a less rosy picture. Robles, of course, was an all-world defender in 2019 by any measure: 23 OAA, 23 DRS, 5.3 UZR. Robles has reversed course after adding 15 pounds last offseason, reporting to camp as the slimmer version of himself once more, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. The Nationals are assuming Robles will be back to his elite self in centerfield, as they’ll need him to cover lots of ground while sharing the grass with Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto. Both Schwarber (-3 OAA) and Soto (-2 OAA) have worked hard to improve themselves in the field, but neither one rates particularly well.

Health Notes: Yordan, E-Rod, Bailey, Nottingham, Parra

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After he missed all but two games last season, the Astros are set to welcome back slugger Yordan Alvarez this year. It appears the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year will be limited solely to designated hitter, though, as manager Dusty Baker said Friday (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) that it’s “very unlikely” he’ll play any outfield in 2021. Alvarez underwent surgery on both knees, and Baker commented, “It’s shown in the past that whenever [Alvarez] plays in the outfield, he’s hurting for two or three days, you know what I mean?” If Alvarez doesn’t see any action in the grass, it’ll leave left field to Michael Brantley, who battled his own injury troubles a year ago and spent most of his season at DH.

  • Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will return to the mound Saturday when he throws two innings in a simulated game, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays. That’s welcome news after Rodriguez missed all of last year because of myocarditis and COVID-19. Rodriguez was one of Boston’s top pitchers during the previous couple seasons, and as a pending free agent, the 27-year-old is heading into a pivotal campaign.
  • Reds right-hander Brandon Bailey announced on Twitter that he underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday. It was the second TJ procedure for the 26-year-old Bailey, whom the Reds acquired from the Astros in November. The 26-year-old Bailey made his major league debut last season in Houston with 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball, six hits allowed, and four walks against three strikeouts. During his most recent minor league action in 2019, Bailey recorded a 3.30 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across 92 2/3 Double-A frames.
  • Brewers catcher Jacob Nottingham is not recovering from late-December thumb surgery as quickly as expected. Nottingham is only doing “small baseball activities” right now and will not be ready for the start of Cactus League play, according to manager Craig Counsell (via Todd Rosiak and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). A healthy Nottingham and free-agent pickup Luke Maile figured to jockey for the No. 3 catcher position behind Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina, so Nottingham’s injury could help Maile in his quest to land that job. Nottingham, who is out of minor league options, amassed 54 plate appearances last year and hit .188/.278/.458 with four home runs.
  • Nationals outfielder Gerardo Parra underwent right knee surgery in the fall and is currently at 70 to 80 percent, he told Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and other reporters Friday. Parra expects to be ready for Opening Day, but having signed a minor league deal in the offseason, he has work to do this spring in order to earn a spot on Washington’s roster.

Kelvin Herrera Announces Retirement

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Two-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion Kelvin Herrera announced today, via Twitter, that he is retiring after spending parts of 10 seasons in the Major Leagues.

Kelvin Herrera | Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

“I want to thank everyone who has been a part of my career, starting with the Kansas City Royals organization who believed in this kid from Tenares, Dominican Republic and gave him a chance to do something meaningful with his life,” Herrera wrote in his announcement. “From ownership, to the Front Office, the staff, my teammates and last but not least, the fans, I owe you guys everything.”

Herrera goes on to thank both the Nationals and White Sox organizations for welcoming him as well. For the time being, Herrera says he plans to focus on his family and the next chapter of his life.

It’ll no doubt surprise some readers to see that Herrera is still just 31 years old. He’s been around the Majors for a decade due to the Royals calling on him for his Major League debut at just 21 years of age.

Herrera pitched in just two games late in that 2011 season, but the right-hander was an immediate success in 2012 — his first full season at the MLB level. In 84 1/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 2.35 ERA with 19 holds, three saves and a heater that averaged a blistering 98.5 mph. In a normal year, that overwhelming success would’ve no doubt garnered Rookie of the Year consideration, but 2012 happened to also be the rookie season for Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish, who commanded nearly every top-three vote on the ballot that year.

Even without any Rookie of the Year love, Herrera had established himself as a dominant late-inning arm in short order, and that’s the exact role he’d over the next half decade as a steady presence at the back of some elite Kansas City bullpens. From 2012-16, Herrera pitched 354 1/3 regular-season innings with the Royals and notched a collective 2.57 ERA with 106 holds and 17 saves.

The bullpen was in many ways the backbone of the Royals’ back-to-back World Series runs in 2014-15, and Herrera joined teammates Wade Davis, Greg Holland and (in 2015) Ryan Madson in forming a juggernaut late-inning group that gave opposing lineups absolute fits. Each of Herrera, Davis and Holland posted ERAs south of 1.50 and appeared in at least 65 games during the 2014 season. Herrera was as untouchable during the postseason as he was in the regular season, combining for 28 2/3 innings of 1.26 ERA ball in his playoff career.

With the Royals out of contention during Herrera’s final year of club control in 2018, they made the decision to trade him to the Nationals for a package of young players including Kelvin Gutierrez, Blake Perkins and Yohanse Morel. Herrera was injured for part of his time with the Nats, going down with a Lisfranc tear in his foot, but he gave them 18 1/3 innings of 4.34 ERA ball before reaching free agency and signing a two-year pact with the White Sox. Things didn’t pan out in Chicago, as Herrera was tagged for 39 runs in just 53 2/3 innings across his two seasons there.

Herrera’s peak was brief but absolutely dominant, and he’ll go down in Royals lore as an absolutely vital member of a bullpen that fueled a baseball renaissance in Kansas City and brought home the club’s first title in three decades. He’ll hang up the spikes with a career 3.21 ERA, 119 holds, 61 saves and 510 strikeouts in 513 2/3 innings of regular-season work — plus the aforementioned sterling postseason track record. Best wishes to Herrera and his family in whatever the future holds.

Nationals To Sign Jeremy Jeffress To Minors Deal

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The Nationals have reached an agreement with right-hander Jeremy Jeffress on a minor league deal, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter links).  Jeffress will earn $1.25MM if he reaches the Nats’ big league roster, plus he can earn up to $1.25MM more in bonuses.

Jeffress has been an effective reliever for most of his 11 seasons in the majors, and was an All-Star as recently as the 2018 season when pitching for the Brewers.  He struggled in 2019, however, posting a 5.02 ERA with a 48.4% grounder rate that marked the only time the groundball specialist had fallen under the 50% threshold over a full season.

Jeffress had a rebound with the Cubs last season, delivering a 1.54 ERA and 54.4% grounder rate over 23 1/3 innings and allowing only a single home run.  However, Jeffress benefited from a tiny .161 BABIP against some otherwise unimpressive Statcast numbers, and his .496 SIERA painted a much uglier picture of Jeffress’ performance.  His 19.3K% and 13.6BB% were also well below average.

At the cost of just a Spring Training invitation, there isn’t any risk to the Nationals in taking a look to see if Jeffress can still contribute as he enters his age-33 season.  Jeffress joins Luis Avilan, Javy Guerra, Aaron Barrett, and T.J. McFarland as veteran relievers on minor league deals in Washington’s camp.

Nationals Notes: Martinez, Turner, Robles

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Dave Martinez already broke new ground in Nationals’ managerial history by winning the World Series in 2019, but in 2021, he will again traverse new territory previously untrod by Nats’ managers: a fourth season on the job. Davey Johnson won Manager of the Year in 2012, Matt Williams won the award in 2014, and Dusty Baker became the first Nats’ manager to win back-to-back NL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but each of Martinez’s predecessors were let go before a fourth campaign (or third in the case of Williams and Baker).

Martinez figures to blow well past the three-year record previously held by Johnson, Jim Riggleman and Manny Acta. Martinez was given a contract extension last year, freeing him to take the long view in the development of his young players, including superstar Juan Soto, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals – reactionary to disappointing playoff losses in the past – seem to have a new view under Martinez, weathering a difficult 2020 without missing a beat. They’ll enter 2021 expecting to contend, and Martinez will look to check another box off his list by winning an NL East title.

Part of his forward-thinking approach is mulling new ways to maximize production from his superstars Soto and Trea Turner. This season, the question is whether or not to move Turner from the leadoff spot, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nationals don’t necessarily have another prime candidate to step into the top spot of the lineup, however. Martinez would like to try Victor Robles at the top of the order against southpaws, writes Zuckerman. Beyond a small sample size of success leading off, Robles has done little to prove himself a natural candidate as a table-setter. He owns a 5.3 percent career walk rate and a 36.7 percent first pitch swing percentage – a good deal more aggressive than the league average of 28.3 percent.

Viewing Turner as a middle-of-the-order bat is sound, however. Though he’s mostly known for being one of the fastest players in the game, Turner’s bat carries serious thunder: Turner boasts a .216 ISO and 130 wRC+ over the past two seasons. He’s performed 18 percent better than average with the bat for his career. Turner has largely been underrated in part because his most impressive performances have come in seasons cut short either because of a late promotion (2016), injury (2019) or the pandemic (2020). It was his return from injury that largely prompted the Nationals magical run in 2019, however, as Turner famously returned in May to hit .296/.352/.487 despite a broken finger. The Nationals are relying heavily on Turner to be the offensive superstar he was in 2020, when he was on pace for a 7+ fWAR season at a 162-game pace.

NL Notes: Nationals, Giants, Rockies, Marlins

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Teams contacted the Nationals about third baseman Carter Kieboom this offseason, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington). Kieboom hasn’t found any success at the MLB level to date, but it’s no surprise rival clubs would have interest in the 23-year-old. Washington held onto the former top prospect, who looks like the favorite to open the season as the starter at the hot corner.

More from Washington and other Senior Circuit cities:

  • Stephen Strasburg had a normal offseason, he told reporters today (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). The Nationals star right-hander was limited to five innings last season by carpal tunnel syndrome in his throwing hand. Fortunately, the procedure he underwent last summer addressed the issue. The former World Series MVP will be a key piece in the Nats’ hopes of contending in a difficult NL East.
  • Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed the team’s newest addition to the pitching staff this afternoon (via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Right-hander Shun Yamaguchi, who worked exclusively out of the bullpen last season for the Blue Jays, will come to camp as a starting pitcher. The 33-year-old can opt out of his minor-league deal at the end of spring training if he doesn’t make the team, Zaidi said. That’s a rather typical feature for non-roster arrangements.
  • When Rockies outfielder Ian Desmond opted out of the 2020 season, Colorado signed Matt Kemp the following day. With Desmond announcing his intent to sit out in 2021 as well, some speculation had arisen the Rockies could again turn to Kemp, who is back in free agency. Colorado manager Bud Black cast doubt on the idea, though, telling reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) the organization hasn’t recently discussed signing Kemp, even though Desmond had notified the team he was considering opting out a few weeks ago.
  • The Marlins signed Ross Detwiler to a one-year contract in January. Detwiler has started 95 games across his 12-year MLB career (including 12 starts for the 2019 White Sox). However, Miami views the veteran southpaw as strictly a bullpen option in 2021, manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid). Detwiler worked solely in relief for Chicago in 2020, tossing 19.2 innings of 3.20 ERA/3.90 SIERA ball.

Pitching Notes: Mets, deGrom, Nationals, Ross, Twins, Happ, Cardinals, Hudson

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom likes the idea of spending his entire career with the Mets, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. Said the ace, “One thing I think that is really cool is whenever somebody spends their entire career with one team. You don’t see it happen a whole lot anymore, so it’s definitely something I have thought about and I guess we just have to see when that time comes.” DeGrom has an opt out after the 2022 season, which he could attempt to leverage into long-term security in New York. Otherwise, the Mets holds a $32.5MM team option for 2024, which would be deGrom’s age-36 season. Elsewhere in the National League…

  • The Nationals hope Joe Ross can unequivocally seize the fifth starter’s spot in their rotation, but manager Dave Martinez and pitching coach Jim Hickey are hesitant to declare the spot his after Ross sat out 2020, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Erick Fedde and Austin Voth could get into the starting mix if Ross isn’t quite ready to take a full workload from the jump. There’s no indication that the plans have changed much, however, as the Nats still plan on staying in-house to fill that role.
  • J.A. Happ tested positive for coronavirus upon his intake with the Twins, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter). Happ is asymptomatic for now. Assuming he remains that way, Happ should still be ready in time for the start of the season. The Twins signed Happ to an $8MM deal in January, and the Twins expect him to hold down a spot in the middle of their rotation.
  • Dakota Hudson is at the Cardinals spring camp site in Jupiter, FL and ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery, per Zachary Silver of MLB.com (via Twitter). Hudson is scheduled to begin playing catch on March 15th. He is still more likely than not to miss the 2021 season after undergoing surgery late in September.

 

Brian Dozier Announces Retirement

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Former All-Star second baseman Brian Dozier announced on Thursday that he’s retiring after a nine-year career in the Majors and at the age of 33.

Brian Dozier | Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

An eighth-round pick by the Twins back in 2009, Dozier was never considered a premium prospect even within his own organization, topping out as Baseball America’s No. 10 Twins prospect heading into the 2012 season. That didn’t stop the University of Southern Mississippi product from not only making it to the big leagues but to cementing himself as one of the club’s better players of the past decade.

After an inauspicious debut in 2012, Dozier claimed the everyday second base job at Target Field in 2013 and steadily improved his output at the plate over the next several years. In a brief but excellent peak from 2013-17, Dozier was one of the game’s best all-around second basemen, hitting at a .252/.333/.465 clip with 145 home runs, 81 stolen bases and solid defense. Along the way, he won a Gold Glove, made an All-Star team and took home MVP votes in three different seasons. Dozier was worth about 22 wins above replacement in that five-year stretch according to both the Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs versions of the metric.

Unfortunately for both the Twins and for Dozier, he sustained a knee injury early in the 2018 campaign that severely hampered him at the plate. He was traded to the Dodgers that summer and struggled badly down the stretch — hardly the platform any player would want for his first trip to free agency.

Dozier landed a one-year, $9MM deal with the Nationals that winter and served as the club’s primary second baseman for most of the year. In many ways, Dozier enjoyed a rebound campaign, posting a .238/.340/.430 output with 20 homers and 20 doubles alike. His playing time faded late in the year, however, as hot-hitting trade acquisition Asdrubal Cabrera saw more and more of the playing time at second base. Dozier kept his spot on the Nationals’ postseason roster and was hailed as a vital presence in the clubhouse, but he tallied just seven plate appearances during the club’s World Series run.

Dozier signed a minor league deal with the Padres prior to the 2020 season before requesting his release and turning up for a brief seven-game stint with the Mets. That proved to be the final act of Dozier’s career.

All in all, Dozier will head into retirement as a career .244/.325/.441 hitter with 192 home runs, 231 doubles, 21 triples, 105 steals, 664 runs scored and 581 runs driven in. He made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and in his final full season took home a World Series ring for his role in the Nationals’ improbable Cinderella run. Dozier cleared $30MM in salary during a career that Baseball-Reference pegged at 22.7 WAR and FanGraphs valued at 23.7 WAR. Best wishes to Dozier on the next chapter.

Nationals To Sign T.J. McFarland To Minors Deal

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The Nationals are signing free-agent reliever T.J. McFarland to a minor league contract, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets.

The 31-year-old McFarland spent last season as a member of the Athletics, with whom he logged a 4.35 ERA/4.56 SIERA in 20 2/3 innings. McFarland didn’t have control problems, as he issued walks to just 5.4 percent of batters, but he struck out a mere 9.8 percent of hitters. That’s not atypical for McFarland, who has combined for a 13.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 percent walk rate in 401 innings divided among the Orioles, Diamondbacks and A’s. He owns a 4.08 ERA/3.83 SIERA since his career started in 2013, and has thrown 50-plus innings in five seasons.

McFarland will now compete for a spot in the Washington bullpen, which lost fellow lefty Sean Doolittle to the Reds in free agency. Before signing McFarland, though, the Nationals added southpaw Brad Hand on a guaranteed contract and LHP Luis Avilan on a minor league pact. It’s worth noting that McFarland has been much better versus lefties (.295 weighted on-base average) than righties (.352).

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