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Could The Rays Still Move A Starting Pitcher?

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The Rays entered the offseason with at least seven rotation-caliber arms on the roster. Each of Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Ryan Pepiot has had success in a big league rotation, though injuries have hobbled several of that group in recent years. Tampa Bay already thinned out that stock of arms (and, naturally, trimmed payroll) by shipping Springs and lefty Jacob Lopez to the A’s in a deal netting them righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters, and a Competitive Balance (Round A) draft pick in 2025.

The Rays now have “only” six starters with proven (to varying levels) track records in the majors. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that they’re still planning on a five-man rotation, however, adding that trading a starter in the late stages of spring training is “not out of the question.” At best, that very lightly leaves the door for a trade propped open. There’s nothing to strongly suggest the Rays are planning to deal from the rotation. Still, it’s nonetheless worth examining the team’s options if it comes to that point.

The veteran Littell would be the most obvious candidate to change hands. Tampa Bay moved the now-29-year-old righty from the bullpen to the rotation midway through the 2023 season, and the results have been better than anyone could’ve reasonably predicted. Littell solidified the staff in the second half of ’23 and pitched a career-high 156 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA over 29 starts last season. Since moving to a starting role after the Rays claimed him from the Red Sox, Littell has started 40 games and logged a combined 3.65 ERA with a lower-than-average 20.4% strikeout rate but a sensational 4.1% walk rate.

Each of the Rays’ other starting pitchers is signed or controlled via arbitration through at least the 2027 season. Littell is a free agent following the 2025 campaign. He’s being paid a reasonable $5.72MM. He’s not an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but based on how he’s fared since July 2023, the right-hander could step into the third, fourth or fifth spot in most big league rotations.

Trading anyone from the rest of the group is tougher to envision. McClanahan has pitched at a Cy Young level when healthy but missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s controlled through 2027. Moving him right now would mean moving their most talented starter at a time when they’d be selling low. Rasmussen signed a two-year deal with a club option earlier this offseason. That bought out his remaining arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over his first free-agent year by way of that 2027 club option. Flipping him so soon after signing him to that deal is extremely difficult to envision; MLB teams simply don’t sign a player to extension and then trade him prior to ever appearing in their jersey under the terms of that new contract.

Baz and Pepiot are under club control through 2028. The former is earning $1.45MM in 2025, while the latter has yet to reach arbitration. (Baz did so as a Super Two player.) Bradley can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. We’re talking about the Rays, so the “never say never” caveat always applies to some extent, but acquiring four or five seasons of anyone from that bucket would very likely come at a steep price and require a team to part with MLB-ready bats that are both high-upside and controllable for a similar or even lengthier window.

Any team even contemplating a trade from the rotation at this stage of the calendar will be wary, of course. As we’ve seen throughout the league — most prominently up in the Bronx — perceived starting pitching “surpluses” can turn into deficits quickly this time of year. The Rays won’t move someone just to trim payroll, but they have depth even beyond the six arms mentioned here.

The previously mentioned Boyle, for instance, is having a nice spring and has experience in a big league rotation already. Following his acquisition in the Springs trade, president of baseball operations Erik Neander called the 6’7″ righty someone who has “the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation.” Boyle averages nearly 98 mph on his heater but has severe command issues that need to be ironed out. Righty Jacob Waguespack might be Triple-A bound but has 105 2/3 big league innings under his belt. Prospects Joe Rock and Ian Seymour both had some success in Triple-A last year (the latter in particular). There’s no such thing as “too much” rotation depth, but that group could further embolden the Rays to listen on Littell or another big league starter if a team makes a compelling offer.

Rays Notes: Littell, Outfield, Caballero, Front Office

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The Rays made a long-awaited trade from their rotation depth last week when they packaged left-hander Jeffrey Springs and reliever Jacob Lopez in a deal with the A’s that brought back right-hander Joe Boyle, two minor leaguers, and a pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft. Prior to that deal, Springs was viewed alongside right-hander Zack Littell as the two most likely Rays hurlers to be moved this winter. Now that Springs is off the board, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that the Rays are “less likely” to part with Littell this winter.

That’s not exactly surprising. After all, while the Rays have a considerable rotation surplus with a number of excellent potential arms, those arms generally come with question marks. Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will both have recently returned from elbow surgery and could see their innings managed, while youngsters like Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and Taj Bradley have never even thrown 150 innings in a big league season before in their careers. That leaves Littell, who threw 156 1/3 innings of work across 29 starts for the Rays last year, as potentially the club’s most durable arm headed into 2025. Given the frequency with which pitchers get hurt in the modern game, having a sixth starter locked and loaded is hardly a bad idea in case of injuries for any club, to say nothing of the value it could provide a club with a rotation that sports as many injury risks as the Rays’ does.

Of course, it’s impossible to rule out a trade completely when discussing a player with just one year remaining before free agency on the Rays. The club’s front office typically attempts to cash in their players on the trade market before they reach free agency, and even if Littell starts the season with the Rays a midseason trade can’t be ruled out. With that said, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently suggested that the club might be more or less done making moves after dealing Springs and adding Danny Jansen in free agency. One place Topkin suggests the club could look to make an addition is in the outfield, particularly if a lefty bat were to fall into the club’s lap in free agency or via trade. Topkin makes particular mention of Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar as hypothetical options, though he’s quick to note that either player would surely need to see their market in free agency crater before they’d become realistic options for the Rays as things stand.

A more likely outcome in Topkin’s view seems to be going with internal options. That could include giving infielder José Caballero a serious look in the outfield. With Josh Lowe locked into one starting outfield spot and some combination of Jonny DeLuca, Christopher Morel, and Richie Palacios slated to handle the rest of the playing time on the grass as things stand, mixing Caballero in would give the club additional depth in the outfield should they fail to make an external addition. It’s easy to imagine Caballero’s strong glove at shortstop translating fairly well to the outfield grass, and getting a speedster who stole an AL-best 44 bases in just 483 plate appearances last year into the lineup more regularly could help to spark the club’s offense. With that being said, Caballero’s .227/.283/.347 (83 wRC+) slash line last year likely isn’t enough to make it as an outfield regular unless he proves to be a plus defensive option in center.

Turning to off-the-field matters, Topkin also reports that the club currently has no plans to install a GM beneath president of baseball operations Erik Neander. Current Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix served as GM of the Rays under Neander before taking his current gig with Miami last winter, but Topkin suggests that the club’s current set up of two vice presidents and four assistant GMs serving as Neander’s top lieutenants suits the Rays just fine and that Bendix’s title will remain unfilled for the foreseeable future.

Rays Could Deal From Rotation Depth This Offseason

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After the club’s first losing season in six years, the Rays are headed into what figures to be a pivotal offseason for the club as they look to remain contenders in a highly competitive AL East division. As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, one way the club could look to address its lackluster offense (29th in the majors in runs scored this year) this winter is by trading from their rotation depth to acquire a bat, even if that bat doesn’t address their reported offseason priority of improving the club at catcher.

For a Tampa club that enters the winter in serious need of an offensive boost, it’s hard to deny the logic in dealing from their deep group of available arms. Youngsters Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot all emerged as solid, affordable rotation options for the club this year, and Zack Littell’s first full season in a big league rotation seems to have established him as a quality mid-rotation option with one year to go before free agency.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs returned to make seven solid starts for the club in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year and Drew Rasmussen also rejoined the club’s pitching staff late in the year following his own 2023 elbow surgery. Rasmussen pitched primarily in a relief role this year, never throwing more than 38 pitches in an outing, but figures to be a rotation option for the Rays come Spring Training. That also figures to be the case for lefty Shane McClanahan, who went under the knife last August but figures to be ready for Spring Training as well.

With at least seven quality rotation options even after dealing away Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin at the trade deadline over the summer, it would certainly make sense for the club to explore dealing from that depth in order to address the offense. The Braves, Cubs, and Red Sox are all already known to be interested in adding rotation help this winter, while the Orioles and Mets are among the many other teams that could stand to benefit from adding a starter or two this winter as well. With even more clubs sure to look to bolster their pitching when the offseason fully gets underway following the World Series, the Rays should be well positioned to make a deal if they so choose.

Given the club’s small-market payroll and focus on long-term sustainability, it would be something of a surprise to see the Rays move on from any of Bradley, Baz, or Pepiot without recouping a similarly talented and controllable bat in return. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock if clubs were hesitant to deal for McClanahan or Rasmussen given the former hasn’t pitched in more than a year while the latter hasn’t stretched out to start since returning from injury. That could leave Littell and Springs as the most likely candidates to be dealt this winter, with each hurler having various pros and cons as a trade candidate.

When it comes to Littell, the argument for dealing him is rather straightforward: the righty is only under team control through the end of the 2025 season and projects for a not insignificant $4.8MM in his final trip through arbitration according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, so by dealing him the Rays could save a bit of money to address other areas of the roster while also potentially bringing in a more controllable player to complement their offense. With that being said, Littell’s status as a rental could dampen the return for his services somewhat on the heels of a 3.63 ERA campaign that was more solid than excellent.

If teams aren’t scared off by Springs’s lack of volume over the past few years, then, he might be able to bring back a more significant return. After all, the southpaw has been dominant when healthy with a 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 184 1/3 innings of work since 2022, when he first became a starter. Results that strong would be valuable to virtually any rotation in baseball, and Springs’s $21.75MM guarantee over the next two years lands in the sort of sweet spot that would make him a relative bargain for other teams while still clearing a significant financial burden off the books in Tampa, allowing Erik Neander and his front office to explore further upgrades in free agency even beyond what Springs would bring back in trade.

Rays To Select Logan Driscoll, Activate Zack Littell

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The Rays are set to select the contract of catcher Logan Driscoll and activate right-hander Zack Littell from the 15-day IL today, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The additions of Driscoll and Littell to the active rosters will not require corresponding moves due to roster sizes expanding from 26 to 28 today. Driscoll’s contract selection also won’t need a corresponding 40-man move after the club designated righty Erasmo Ramirez for assignment yesterday.

Driscoll, 26, was a second-round pick by the Padres back in 2019 but was swapped to the Rays alongside outfielder Manuel Margot in exchange for right-hander Emilio Pagan during the 2019-20 offseason. Since then, Driscoll has established himself as a solid bat-first catching prospect for the club while also getting occasional reps at first base and in right field. The lefty hitter has slashed a strong .292/.367/.473 in 294 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level this year and figures to get the opportunity to work his way into the mix behind the plate alongside the current tandem of Ben Rortvedt and Alex Jackson.

Rortvedt has largely held his own in 92 games with the Rays this year, slashing .242/.333/.329 with a roughly league average wRC+ of 98 to go along with solid work behind the plate defensively. 2024 has been a struggle for Jackson, however, as the former first-round pick has hit just .122/.201/.237 (28 wRC+) in a career-high 58 games while posting middling defensive numbers. That should open the door to a healthy amount of playing time for Driscoll, particularly if he hits well enough to justify occasional reps at first base, DH, or in the outfield on days where Rortvedt is catching. With Jackson seemingly a longshot to be retained on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason, a strong performance from Driscoll down the stretch this year could put him firmly in the mix alongside Rortvedt and Rene Pinto for a big league catching job next spring.

As for Littell, the right-hander’s return from the injured list should allow the club to move lefty Tyler Alexander back into a relief role going forward and utilize a rotation of Littell, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and Jeffrey Springs down the stretch. Littell’s first season as a full-time starting pitcher has gone quite well, as the right-hander has posted a 3.89 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 129 2/3 innings of work across 24 starts. That’s right in line with the work Littell did with the Rays last year after being acquired from Boston early in the season, as he posted a 3.96 ERA and 3.99 FIP with the Rays in 2023 while swinging between the bullpen and rotation.

Rays Place Zack Littell On 15-Day Injured List

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11:55AM: Littell described the IL trip as precautionary, and he told Topkin and other reporters that he could miss just the minimum 15 days.

11:07AM: The Rays announced that right-hander Zack Littell has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.  The placement is retroactive to August 15.  Left-hander Tyler Alexander has been called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Littell threw five innings of one-run ball in his last start on August 14, but threw only 68 pitches, perhaps indicating that his shoulder issue might’ve hastened a relatively early exit from the game.  The 68 pitches tied Littell’s second-lowest pitch count of the season, as the veteran has been a reliable and durable presence in the Rays’ rotation, and leads the team in both innings (129 2/3) and starts (24).

These are both career bests for Littell, who had only 172 2/3 innings and 18 starts at the MLB level before Tampa Bay acquired the righty on a waiver claim off Boston’s roster back in May 2023.  At first, Littell worked as a reliever and opener with his new team, but over the last two months of the 2023 campaign, he thrived after being given the first extended starting job of his six big league seasons.

This success gave Littell another spot in Tampa’s rotation this year, and he has continued to pitch well, posting a 3.89 ERA over his 129 2/3 frames.  Littell’s 4.7% walk rate is one of the best in baseball, though the rest of his secondary metrics (such as a 21.1% strikeout rate, 39.6% hard-hit ball rate, or 9.7% barrel rate) are below average.  Home runs have also been an issue for Littell, but overall, his 4.05 ERA isn’t far beyond his bottom-line ERA.

At the price of a $1.85MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, Littell has been a bargain, and he’ll continue to be a cost-effective rotation piece even after he gets a healthy raise this winter.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a subscriber-exclusive piece back in May, Littell has been the latest unheralded pitcher to suddenly gain a new level of success after joining the Rays.

Today’s IL placement interrupts the righty’s overall solid season, and given the calendar, the injury could potentially threaten to end Littell’s 2024 altogether.  Another bout of shoulder fatigue cost him about three weeks last season, and while every situation is different, it could be that this placement is a way to let Littell rest up after almost a full year of an increased workload.  The Rays could use Alexander as a bulk pitcher behind an opener while Littell is on the IL, or the team again dip into the farm system for a replacement arm.

Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach

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The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.

Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.

The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.

Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.

Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.

Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.

While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.

Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.

Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.

If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

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The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

The Rays Did It Again

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Unless you're brand new to baseball fandom -- and if that's the case, welcome! -- you know by now that few teams around the sport have managed to maximize player performance like the Rays. It's become a point of consternation among fans of other clubs and an oft-memed joke on social media, but the Rays have a knack for unearthing hidden gems like practically no other club in the game. In recent seasons, they've turned low-profile pickups of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough and Collin McHugh into high-end performances. They've signed mid-range free agents like Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton and coaxed borderline ace-level performance from them. They've bought low on former top prospects like Tyler Glasnow and struck gold.

That doesn't even factor in buy-low pickups of position players like Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri and others. The Rays may have dropped "Devil" from their name back in 2007, but there are plenty of fans who still lament the Rays' devil magic, which has propelled the team to near-perennial contention despite consistent bottom-of-the-league payrolls.

And if you haven't been paying attention over the past calendar year -- they've done it again.

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Rays Notes: Lowe, Chang, Littell

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The Rays are shutting down outfielder Josh Lowe from all baseball activity for the next six days due to inflammation in his left hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe could be out of games for up to 15 days while he lets the issue calm down, but manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the team is “not overly concerned” and doesn’t think Lowe is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.

The 26-year-old Lowe had a breakout 2023 season, slashing .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 32 stolen bases and quality defense across all three outfield spots (primarily right field). The majority of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, though Lowe wasn’t completely overmatched even in 67 left-on-left matchups (.238/.284/.429). He’s expected to be in the lineup on a near-everyday basis in 2024, so while the team and player are both projecting confidence he’ll be ready for the start of the season, his progression from the current hip issue is worth watching with a careful eye. If Lowe were to wind up missing time, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios would be among the options to step up.

Also ailing is non-roster invitee Yu Chang, who’ll be down at least two weeks with an oblique injury, per the Times’ Kristie Ackert (X link). If testing reveals a strain of any note, there’s a chance Chang could miss the remainder of camp, as even Grade 1 oblique strains regularly shelve players for a month or more. Cash seems to be anticipating an absence of some note, calling the injury “unfortunate” and noting that Chang will likely “miss some time” (via Topkin’s column).

The slick-fielding Chang went 1-for-3 with a homer to begin his spring tenure with the Rays as he competes for what would be his second MLB stint with the team. As a career .204/.269/.359 hitter in 650 big league plate appearances, Chang would seem unlikely to provide the Rays with much at the plate — should be make the team. However, he’s a strong and versatile defender, with at least 300 innings and quality defensive ratings at all four infield spots.

Like Chang, right-hander Zack Littell is no stranger to coming to big league camp and fighting for a job. This spring is different for the 28-year-old, however, as he’s locked into a rotation spot for the first time in his career. He spoke with MLB.com’s Adam Berry about the freedom that gives him to experiment with tweaks to his pitches, mechanics, etc. without fearing poor results will cost him a job.

“It’s nice to have a true six weeks where … you can go out there and you can really play with this stuff and find what works, and either run with it or say, ’Hey, we’re going the wrong direction,'” Littell said.

Though he was a starter in the upper minors and a well-regarded prospect with the Mariners, Yankees and Twins, Littell quickly settled into a relief role in the majors and has since begun to bounce around the league via a series of DFAs and waiver claims. The Rays claimed him from the Red Sox last May, initially deploying him in his familiar bullpen role, but stretched Littell back out closer to the trade deadline as injuries on the pitching staff mounted.

Few could’ve predicted just how well what looked like a desperation move wound up panning out. Over a span of 11 starts, Littell posted a 3.38 ERA in 65 innings of work. That mark was propped up by a .262 average on balls in play and 77% strand rate; paired with a sub-par strikeout rate, it led metrics like FIP (4.04) and SIERA (4.26) to take a bit more of a bearish outlook on Littell’s contributions. It’s also worth wondering whether he can sustain the sensational 1.9% walk rate — more than six percentage points south of his career mark — he turned in during that time.

Regardless, Littell pitched his way into an opportunity to show he can sustain success out of a big league rotation. Cash made perfectly clear that he’ll be given every chance to do so, telling Berry that Littell is currently in line to start the team’s second or third game of the season.

If the Rays have pulled yet another rabbit out of their hat on the starting pitching front and can successfully keep Littell productive in his new role, it’ll prove to be an affordable, multi-year solution. As a player with 4.043 years of MLB service, Littell is under club control through 2025. And with his limited big league track record to date, this year’s arbitration salary clocked in at a modest $1.85MM. If he can indeed sustain some of last year’s rotation success, he could hold a spot in the rotation into next season, when he’d likely still cost the club under $5MM.

Rays Option Taj Bradley

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The Rays are optioning right-hander Taj Bradley to Triple-A Durham, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Reliever Ryan Thompson will be recalled to take his roster spot for now, though a spot will soon be required for Aaron Civale, having been acquired from the Guardians earlier today. The Rays have now announced the moves. The club also selected righty Erasmo Ramírez yesterday, optioning righty Calvin Faucher in a corresponding move.

Tampa has dealt with a number of injuries to its rotation this year, with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen both out for the remainder of the season due to their injuries. Josh Fleming is also on the 60-day injured list and has an uncertain timeline. That has seen them roll with a rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Bradley of late. Eflin recently required an MRI on his left knee, which was an ominous development given his history of knee issues, but he’s been cleared to start Tuesday.

Around that foursome, the Rays have been occasionally deploying some bullpen games, but they added Civale into the mix with a trade today. That could have still left room for Bradley to stick around, but it seems that Tampa would prefer to send him to Durham to get some work in there. He came into this season as one of the top prospects in the league but hasn’t quite made a smooth transition to the big leagues. He has allowed 5.67 earned runs per nine innings through 16 starts so far, though there seems to be a lot of bad luck in there. He’s striking out 30% of opponents while walking 7.9%, both of those numbers being better than league average, but his .342 batting average on balls in play and 64.8% strand rate and both on the unlucky side.

ERA estimators such as his 4.15 FIP and 3.53 SIERA paint a nicer picture of Bradley’s debut season thus far, but he will be bumped off the active roster nonetheless. This won’t impact him from a service time perspective, as he had already been optioned a few times earlier in the season and wasn’t going to get a full year of service time here in 2023 even before this move. With tomorrow’s trade deadline looming, there’s still a chance for the Rays to add another starter, with hurlers like Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez just some of those thought to be available.

But for now, it seems the rotation spot will go to Zack Littell, as Topkin relays the righty will start on Friday. Littell had been working as a reliever earlier in the year but recently made some starts as an opener, with his workload gradually increasing. Seven of his last eight outings have been longer than a single inning and he tossed five frames in yesterday’s contest, allowing two earned runs on eight hits, striking out four while walking none.

He was a starter in the minors earlier in his career but has been a primary reliever since 2019. It’s unclear if the Rays plan on him moving to a starter’s role permanently, but it wouldn’t be the first time they went down this road. Both Springs and Rasmussen were working out of the bullpen before the Rays started stretching them out, successfully moving them both to rotation jobs before their current injuries. On the season as a whole, Littell has a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings, though with a .376 BABIP, 22.7% strikeout rate, 3.8% walk rate and 46.9% ground ball rate.

Ramírez, 33, signed a one-year deal with the Nationals in the offseason. But he posted a 6.33 ERA though 23 appearances and got released, landing with the Rays on a minor league deal. He worked a multi-inning role for the Bulls, tossing 23 innings over nine appearances with a 5.87 ERA. His .383 BABIP and 68% strand rate point to some bad luck while his peripherals were strong, with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate.

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