Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bay, Dodgers, Draft

I am really getting tired of these blogs that purport to "show" something like the blog link above. There is absolutely *nothing* about selecting a pitcher with the first overall pick (or in the first round) that makes it less likely the pitcher will experience success. There is also nothing about being selected later in the draft that *increases* one's odds of major league success.

Silly post, in my opinion.

First of all, Dwight Gooden was not drafted within the last 20 years. He was taken #5 in the June 1982 draft, by my math, 27 years ago, so he does not qaulify here. People should not be publishing written pieces if they can't do second grade arithmetic.

Second, wasn't Josh Beckett taken #2 overall in 1999? He's not so bad. Kerry Wood, #4 in 1995, also very good, also hurt by injuries. Same for Mark Mulder, who was taken #2 in 1998. Mark Prior, another #2 overall pick (2001), was pretty darn good, also sabotaged by injury. Zack Greinke was taken #6 overall (2003)...convenient that he was taken a whopping one pick too late to thwart this nonsense.

And I guess whoever wrote this piece didn't actually look at the position players taken in the top 5 the last 20 years, either...a lot of them turned out to be stiffs, too. There just aren't that many Alex Rodriguez's in the world, and what if Josh Hamilton hadn't straightened his life out? He'd be yet another wasted draft pick. The truth is, it is A. very difficult for any amateur player to live up to the hype of being a top 5 pick, B. a crap shoot in the draft no matter how good your scouting is, no matter what sport you are involved in, and C. always a possibility that highly touted players either crumble beneath the pressure, or else falter physically due to being pushed (or pushing themselves) too hard, too soon, too fast, in order to live up to their billing. Check number of top five picks the last 20 years whose careers were derailed by recurring injuries. It is a pretty distinguished list.

Also, maybe we should consider the fact that the top 5 picks belong to the worst teams in the league, and, to some degree anyway, it is feasible to assume they are the worst teams in part because maybe, just maybe, they can't spot talent as well as other teams, or cultivate it in the minors...?

It seems baseball is not unlike other pro sports where top picks are just as bust likely. Look at the NBA draft over the last 10 years. I would guess if baseball had an all world draft open to 18 year olds that there would be even more busts.

Among 25 man Major League rosters what percentage are comprised of 1st round picks? Is it similar to football where later round picks are seemingly just as likely to become average starters and superstars?

Top 5 picks in any draft format (salary issues aside) always have can't miss out of this world talent the question is will your team have the top pick that year and draft and sign them.

You really think they both are likely? interesting.

if there's any correlation between being a top 5 drafted pitcher and failing to pan out, it wasn't shown in that piece, and much more data would be required. But if there was such a correlation, I'd speculate that it may be because those teams drafting 1-5 are bad for a reason (likely due to crappy pitching) and thus may be forced to rush those pitchers to the majors. They also may not be good a developing pitchers the right way (another reason they're bad) or as mentioned above, not good at spotting talent, though I'm sure some of those selections (like Prior) were more or less consensus future studs. (The Twins look brilliant for passing on Prior, but it isn't as if Mauer hasn't had a lot of injury problems.)

Still, there's no guarantee on Strasburg, but any team picking #1 would have to take him and hope it works out.

The one thing that Coletti hasnt done is trade away great young pitchers that have shown anything. He traded a future reliever and a player(Morris) that just has TJS.

With the draft thing, i think the point is saying that a pitcher isnt one player that will turn around a team. no rookie pitcher isnt worth 50m, and that is the point of the article. one arm injury, and that 50m is down the drain.

want a time when a team wasted almost 50m on a pitcher, look at Igawa.

Ned Colletti won the Milton Bradley/Andre Ethier trade by a MILE though. It's not even close. Someone was struggling to find a left fielder for the "Ned Colletti gave up on them". It's not giving up on a player if you trade him for someone of greater value, like Ethier.