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Shin-Soo Choo Rumors
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman touched on many topics in his latest “Inside Baseball” column, and since we’ve already focused on Heyman’s notes about the Brewers, let’s look at some of his other hot stove info from around the league…
- The Astros will be looking to add one or even two starting pitchers, though Cole Hamels is “too pricey” for them, according to one team source. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored the case for Houston going after the Phillies southpaw, and 42.44% of MLBTR readers polled thought that the Astros should indeed pursue Hamels.
- Rival executives aren’t bothered by Hamels’ sub-par performance this season since all of this trade speculation is assumed to be impacting his work. Executives “seem to be split on” whether the Phillies are making the right move in holding out for a blue chip prospect or two in exchange for Hamels, or if they should just be looking to get his big salary off the books for a lower return of young talent.
- A.J. Hinch’s deal with the Astros is a three-year contract with a club option for 2018. The exact dollar figure isn’t known but Heyman reports that the average annual value is less than $1MM, which could end up being a bargain given how Houston has thus far played under Hinch’s management.
- While Zack Greinke is expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, Heyman doubts he’ll leave the Dodgers since they certainly have the money to sign him to a new deal.
- One scout suggests that Javier Baez might need “a change of scenery” to get back on track. Baez struck out a whopping 95 times in 229 plate appearances with the Cubs last season, and only has a .755 OPS at the Triple-A level this year. Baez is only a year removed from being considered an elite-level prospect, so while it seems early to consider trading him, Chicago is already deep in young middle infield talent.
- The Rangers are willing to deal Shin-Soo Choo, rival executives believe. This is no surprise given Choo’s huge contract and underwhelming performance in Texas, though obviously those same issues will make dealing him a tall order. Heyman notes that the Yankees were interested in Choo when he was a free agent two winters ago, though even if Choo turns it around, I’m not sure I see New York taking on a big contract when they already have a pretty full outfield.
- The Cardinals “will rue the day they made that trade” of Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jorden Walden, in the words of one scout. Heyman feels this is a bit of a stretch, even though Miller has been outstanding for the Braves and Heyward has struggled for the Cards (and Walden is on the DL).
- Veteran Andruw Jones isn’t yet planning to retire, though he won’t play in 2015. Jones has played in Japan for the last two seasons and expressed interest in a return to Major League Baseball this winter, drawing interest from at least two teams, including the Indians. According to Heyman, Jones turned down minor league contract offers from multiple teams.
United States authorities are interviewing Cuban ballplayers as part of an investigation into smuggling rings, reports ESPN The Magazine’s Scott Eden. Driven by dramatic stories as well as high-profile success on the field, attention has increasingly focused on the issue of human trafficking of players hoping to reach Major League Baseball.
Here are some more notes to round out the evening:
- The Orioles‘ run to take the AL East has a lot of plausible explanations, but one of them is as straightforward as it is surprising, writes Mike Petriello of Fangraphs. Steve Pearce has had perhaps the most unexpected four-plus win season in history, largely making up for the downturn of Chris Davis. Even better, he cost the team virtually nothing to acquire. It remains to be seen whether he’ll carry much value into next year, but Baltimore will surely pay him a much-deserved raise through arbitration to find out. Pearce entered the year with over four years of service time, meaning that he has just one year of team control remaining. His 17 home runs and .907 OPS will set him up nicely for an arb payday, though he has logged under 400 plate appearances (still easily a career high) and does not have a large base point to work from.
- Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo will undergo surgery on his troublesome left ankle, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports on Twitter. It will be up to two months before he can begin to run, but that should still give him plenty of time to prepare for the spring. Of course, Texas will hope that a healthy ankle will go some way to allowing Choo to return to form next year. He is owed $116MM on his contract through 2020.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos declined to tip his hand regarding the status of manager John Gibbons for 2015, but MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm senses a change of tone from the GM. Anthopoulos emphasized that Gibbons is under contract, saying that he would treat the skipper like any other team employee: “you support them until you don’t support them.” Though Anthopoulos said that nothing should be read into his comments, Chisolm notes that the GM’s comments last year at this time revealed less reserved support for Gibbons.
The Rangers announced tonight that outfielder Shin-Soo Choo will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow to remove a bone spur and will miss the remainder of the 2014 season. The loss of a player to season-ending surgery has become a familiar refrain for Rangers fans, who have seen Prince Fielder, Martin Perez, Mitch Moreland, Jurickson Profar, Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando all go down for the season, while Derek Holland has yet to step on a big league mound as of Aug. 25. Clearly, the Rangers were hoping for more than the .242/.340/.374 batting line turned in by Choo in his inaugural season with the club, though he’s been bothered by ankle injuries all season in addition to the aforementioned elbow problem. Michael Choice will take Choo’s roster spot for the rest of the season.
Here’s more on the Rangers and their division…
- As if the loss of Choo wasn’t enough, Jon Daniels said in an interview on 105.3 The Fan that he is doubtful Yu Darvish will pitch again in 2014 (via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). While the Rangers GM said the team has stopped short of definitively ruling out its ace, it seems safe to assume that Darvish can have his name added to the list of Rangers whose seasons ended prematurely due to injury.
- Geovany Soto tells Jane Lee of MLB.com that he was “very surprised” to learn of his trade from the Rangers to the division-rival Athletics, but he’s happy to have the opportunity to play on a contending team and work with the Oakland pitching staff.
- The Angels don’t appear to be a fit for Bartolo Colon at this time, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Colon, who cleared waivers today, is owed $1.77MM for the remainder of the season and $11MM in 2015, and the Angels would likely have interest only if the Mets were to assume some of the remaining salary, DiGiovanna says.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the team will not comment on the federal investigation that is looking into the team’s data leak earlier this year. He did, however, reassure Drellich that the team’s systems are now secure.
A group of high-profile Rangers players has cleared revocable waivers, according to a report from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Ace Yu Darvish, star third baseman Adrian Beltre, young shortstop Elvis Andrus, and recent free agent-signee Shin-Soo Choo have all cleared. (Outfielder Alex Rios has already cleared waivers.) Meanwhile, lefty Neal Cotts is still on waivers, with his period set to expire tomorrow.
Of course, just because that set of big names has cleared names does not necessarily mean that other teams do not want them, let alone that they are likely to be dealt. As Heyman notes, even if a team was interested in adding Darvish or Beltre, placing a claim would start a clock that could well be too short to complete such a significant deal. In the case of Choo, his down year and massive contract made it quite unlikely that another team would want to take his contract.
Andrus, on the other hand, is a more interesting case. His eight-year, $120MM extension (which includes both opt-out and vesting option provisions) does not kick in until next year. The 25-year-old has struggled to take the next step at the plate, and owns a .271/.326/.337 batting line over the 2013-14 time frame. Though he is a productive fielder and baserunner, that batting line has limited his cumulative value over that period to 4.4 fWAR and 4.9 rWAR. While his name has been mentioned as a trade possibility, the contract would certainly be a major complication, and it is perhaps somewhat telling that he was left unclaimed.
Ultimately, Cotts seems the most likely to actually change hands. Executives tell Heyman that the setup man will likely be claimed, in which case Texas will have the option of working out a trade, allowing his contract to be assumed by the claiming team, or pulling him back. The 34-year-old is earning just $2.2MM this year and will be a free agent at season’s end, making some sort of transaction seem rather likely. Though he has taken a step back from a stellar 2013 (1.11 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9), Cotts has still been fairly productive this year. He owns a 3.54 ERA and 9.6 K/9 versus 3.4 BB/9 over 53 1/3 frames, with peripherals that suggest he has pitched slightly better. The veteran has actually been somewhat more effective against righties (.673 OPS) than lefties (.731 OPS) on the season.
As a reminder, you can check here for MLBTR’s updated list of players who have cleared revocable waivers.
The seven-year, $140MM offer that the Yankees offered Shin-Soo Choo was only on the table for less than a day. As MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince notes, New York offered Choo the contract and then pulled it back almost as quickly in order to instead sign Carlos Beltran to a three-year, $45MM deal. "In my opinion, it takes some time to make a decision, maybe at least a couple days," Choo said. "You want to learn a city and a team. They gave me 21 hours." The Yankees' withdrawal could've been due to Beltran simply accepting his offer first, or perhaps because Scott Boras (Choo's agent), reportedly asked the Yankees to match the $153MM the Bombers gave to Jacoby Ellsbury. Choo didn't end up doing too badly for himself at any rate, signing a seven-year, $130MM deal with the Rangers.
Here's some news from around the baseball world…
- CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman lists 14 players who could traded during Spring Training. Most of these names have popped up on the pages of MLBTR over the last few weeks, though one new name is Marlins right-hander Jacob Turner. Heyman says there's "not a great chance" Miami would deal Turner but since the Marlins have a lot of good young pitchers, "folks on other teams speculate this could be the one arm the Marlins might move in that right deal" for offensive help.
- Ike Davis' calf injury has not only set back the Mets' first base competition, but it has also ruined any possible chance of a trade showcase for Davis during Spring Training, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes. The Brewers, Pirates and Orioles have all been connected to Davis in trade rumors during the offseason but obviously no move will be made any time soon, as Davis is currently in a walking boot and recently had an MRI on his right calf.
- Speaking of the Pirates' first base search, the team could end up finding its left-handed platoon partner for Gaby Sanchez already on the roster in the form of Andrew Lambo, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. While maturity issues and a 50-game suspension reportedly relating to marijuana use have set back Lambo's career, he is still only 25 and has posted some strong power numbers in the minors.
- "I just don't see what we have to lose," Indians manager Terry Francona says about Carlos Santana's attempted conversion to third base. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal recaps the reasons behind Santana's surprising decision to try the hot corner and how it could be a boon for the Tribe if Santana could handle the position.
- Nate Schierholtz wants to remain with the Cubs but is cognizant of the fact that could be traded, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports. The veteran outfielder said he hasn't spoken to Cubs management about staying beyond his current one-year contract. Recent rumors put Schierholtz on the trading block thanks to Ryan Kalish's progress, not to mention the fact that Kalish is playing on a minor league deal while Schierholtz is owed $5MM this season.
4:05pm: ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett reports that Choo will earn $14MM in 2014 and 2015, $20MM annually from 2016-18 and $21MM in 2019 and 2020 (Twitter link).
3:15pm: With an outstanding rotation locked up for the foreseeable future, the Rangers have focused on re-shaping their offense this winter, and Shin-Soo Choo is the next piece of the puzzle. The Rangers have officially announced the signing of Choo to a seven-year contract that is reportedly worth $130MM. Reportedly, $5MM of the first year's salary will be shifted to 2016-17, creating more flexibility in 2014. The 31-year-old Scott Boras client does not have an opt-out in his contract but did receive a limited no-trade clause.
As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in his profile of Choo, who ranked third on Dierkes's list of the top fifty free agents, the South Korean on-base machine hit the open market at an optimal time. Having never seen his OBP drop below a .373 mark, Choo reached another level last year with a .285/.423/.462 line (over 712 plate appearances) in his first and only season with the Reds. (Of course, as Dierkes explained, Choo's biggest weakness — his struggles against left-handed pitching — could force him into a platoon role in the later years of his deal.) Choo also knocked twenty home runs in 2013 for the third time in his career. Batting atop the lineup in Cincinnati, Choo also swiped over twenty bags for the fourth time, though he was also tagged out eleven times in the process.
Though Choo played in center last year for the Reds, the expectation is that he will man a corner position in Texas. If the Rangers indeed intend to go with Leonys Martin up the middle, it would seem likely that the club would be out of the mix for Nelson Cruz. (Alex Rios is already penciled into one corner spot.) Though it certainly doesn't preclude anything, Choo will wear No. 17 in Texas (as he did in Cincinnati) — the same number that Cruz donned while with the Rangers. The Rangers said at today's press conference today that the current plan is for Choo to serve as their new leadoff hitter.
Texas GM Jon Daniels has not been shy in adding lengthy and substantial contracts to his club's books of late. He added dollars and years through trades for Rios and Prince Fielder (offset only in part by the departure of Ian Kinsler in that deal). And Daniels has done the same via extension, with Martin Perez (four years, $12.5MM), Elvis Andrus (eight years, $120MM), and Matt Harrison (five years, $55MM) all getting new deals in the last year. Add it all up, and the Rangers have added nearly $400MM in future obligations in the 2013 calendar year. That would seem likely to take the club out of the mix for Masahiro Tanaka (in the event that he is posted).
At seven years and $130MM, Choo will receive an average annual value of just over $18.5MM. His deal slots in $23MM shy of that inked by Jacoby Ellsbury with the Yankees over the same length of time, but comes with a $40MM larger guarantee than that achieved by Hunter Pence in the five-year deal he reached with the Giants just before hitting the open market.
The Rangers were willing to go to seven years and a big sum of money, says Passan, in part due to the weak set of hitters available via free agency next year. Of course, new candidates could emerge; one year ago, it would have seemed quite unlikely that Choo would command this kind of payday. The Yankees may have been willing to reach the $140MM level in a seven-year pact with Choo, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But the lack of state income tax in Texas boosted the value of the Rangers' offer, and Choo apparently also preferred to join Texas.
Since Choo turned down a qualifying offer from the Reds, his former club will receive a compensatory pick. Texas, meanwhile, stands to lose its first-round draft choice, though it could regain a choice in the sandwich round if Cruz signs elsewhere.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that an agreement had been reached (via Twitter). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported (via Twitter) that the deal was expected to be worth $130MM. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that $5MM of Choo's 2014 salary was shifted to 2016-17 (via Twitter), and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeted that Choo's contract does not contain an opt-out but has a limited no-trade clause.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Now that the Rangers have agreed to terms with Shin-Soo Choo, most of their offseason maneuvering is complete, as Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com notes. Or, at least, it could be complete. Whether or not the Rangers are actually done remains to be seen. At this point, though, the Rangers appear to have addressed all their major needs.
Heading into the offseason, we noted that the Rangers would likely look to try to upgrade the first base and designated hitter positions, and that a trade of Ian Kinsler might make sense, given their infield logjam. The Rangers addressed both issues with one deal, sending Kinsler to the Tigers for Prince Fielder and $30MM. Despite receiving cash from the Tigers, the deal added to the Rangers' payroll burden, but it also gave them a star-caliber first baseman (Steamer projects Fielder will be worth 3.6 WAR in 2014), allowing them to bump Mitch Moreland to DH and open second base for top prospect Jurickson Profar, who will join Fielder, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre in the Rangers' infield.
2013 Rangers catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto were both eligible for free agency after the season, leaving the Rangers in need of two big-league catchers. Rather than signing Brian McCann or making another big-ticket move, the Rangers went cheap at catcher, re-signing Soto with the idea that he would be their primary backstop in 2014. Soto served as Pierzynski's backup in 2013, but at age 31 and coming off a .245/.328/.466 season, he could be a bargain at one year and $3.05MM. With Soto in the fold, the Rangers signed J.P. Arencibia to be his backup. Arencibia hit just .194/.227/.365 in 2013, but his above-average power could play well in Texas.
At the beginning of December, the Rangers sent sabermetric favorite Craig Gentry (who produced a whopping 3.4 WAR in a part-time role in 2013, thanks largely to his defense) and pitcher Josh Lindblom to Oakland for outfielder Michael Choice and infield prospect Chris Bostick. Texas exchanged one excellent role player for an outfielder in Choice with more long-term upside and years of control. The deal also allowed Leonys Martin to move into a full-time role in center field, with Engel Beltre, who is out of options, becoming his backup.
And then came another blockbuster, as the Rangers agreed to terms with Choo on a seven-year, $130MM deal. With Nelson Cruz departing via free agency, the Rangers had a spot open in their outfield (more on Choice's role in a second), and a need for a big bat.
Choo isn't an archetypal slugger, but he's posted on-base percentages north of .390 in four of the last six seasons. As some analysts, such as ESPN's Keith Law (Insider-only), noted, the Rangers are taking a big long-term risk with a contract of this size. Choo is already 31 and is a poor hitter against lefties, meaning there's a good chance he'll need to be shoehorned into a part-time role well before the contract ends. Choo's high HBP totals — he had a career-high 26 in 2013 — make him an injury concern going forward. And as ESPN's Dan Szymborski notes (via Twitter), high-OBP corner outfielders who don't have great power tend to decline quickly. Choo also will cost the Rangers their first-round draft pick next year. In the short term, though, Choo is a huge upgrade at the Rangers' last remaining key position of need.
The Rangers will likely head into 2014 with Alex Rios and Choo as their main options at the corner outfield positions. With Martin in center, that means the only starting offensive position that's even a little bit unsettled is designated hitter. While it still isn't impossible that the Rangers could re-sign Cruz, they now have enough decent options at the position that they could just go into 2014 with what they have. Moreland, a lefty, would likely take most of the at bats against righties, and Choice might be an option at the position as well. What the Rangers plan to do with Choice is unclear. The Rangers could option him to Triple-A to play every day. But as a righty, he would also have value as a bench outfielder and occasional DH, filling in for Moreland or Choo when lefties take the mound.
The Rangers have no obvious needs in their rotation, with Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Alexi Ogando occupying four spots, Matt Harrison returning from injury to take the fifth one, and Nick Tepesch available as depth. With a variety of options at the closer position, including Neftali Feliz, Tanner Scheppers and Joakim Soria, they don't have to worry about replacing the departing Joe Nathan, either.
The Rangers might not be done making news. If they were to re-sign Cruz, for example, they might then trade Moreland to a team like the Pirates or Brewers. But they don't need to make any more big moves. They've acquired two catchers, cleared the way for Profar and added two big bats in Fielder and Choo. They already appear to be mostly set for 2014.
Most executives and scouts expected Shin-Soo Choo to wind up with the Rangers, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reports. Sources say Choo liked Texas because of its recent run of success, the growing Korean population in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and because the team conducts Spring Training in Arizona. While GM Jon Daniels would have also been comfortable re-signing Nelson Cruz to a shorter deal, the agreement shows that MLB executives prefer to have their rosters complete before Christmas, Crasnick says. Here's more on the deal from around baseball:
- The signing makes Texas one of the AL's best teams, ESPN.com's Keith Law says, writing that Choo could be worth 6 wins in 2014 because of the defensive boost he's likely to get after transitioning out of center field. However, Law notes that it's also a lengthy contract for a player who struggles mightily against left-handed pitching.
- The Mariners appear to be one of the losers following the signing, according to Law, who says Seattle projects as the fourth-best team in the AL West even after inking Robinson Cano. Choo would have also been a good fit for the Tigers, who Law says have had a puzzling offseason thus far.
- A source close to Choo says the outfielder considered the Rangers his "clear first choice," FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. While Texas will enter 2014 with more left-handed hitters in its lineup, the club appears to be the AL West's best as things currently stand, Rosenthal says. He adds that the signing takes the Rangers out of the running for Masahiro Tanaka, if he's eventually posted.
- Anthony Castrovince profiles Choo in an article for MLB.com, lauding his work ethic.
- Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that the deal completes a Texas offseason in which the team managed to achieve nearly all of its goals. The club had intended to keep its payroll around $125MM.
- While the Yankees weren't able to sign Choo, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News says the deal may ultimately help the Yanks because it eliminates Texas as a potential suitor for Masahiro Tanaka.
By agreeing to a seven-year, $130MM contract today with Shin-Soo Choo, the Rangers put an exclamation point on an offseason of sizable future salary commitments — for the team and the league as a whole. Along with the contract commitments taken on or made to Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, Martin Perez, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison, Texas has added nearly $400MM in future salary obligations to its books during the 2013 calendar year. And as MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Tracker shows, league-wide salary expenditure through free agency has now passed the bar set in 2013, when the league spent $1.46 billion on open-market players.
With Choo off the board, the top remaining free agent position players are Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. Of course, several other major pitching targets are still free, and figure to command sizeable deals of their own. Here are some of the early reactions from around baseball to Choo's signing:
- As far as discipline goes, Choo, Prince Fielder and Geovany Soto will add real stress to opponent pitch counts, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas News. In 2013, the Rangers ranked ninth in the AL in total pitches seen and that was with the benefit one of extra game.
- In the wake of Choo signing with Texas, Reds GM Walt Jocketty reiterated that Billy Hamilton is his guy, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “He’s the guy,” Jocketty said. “We feel confident he can be a good leadoff hitter. He’ll give us great defense. The only question is how often he can get on base. He’ll start working on his bunting again after the first of the year. If he can master that, it will really help him.”
- The Rangers and Boras worked well into Friday night and Saturday morning to put together the deal, writes Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. Brown adds that Choo's left-handed bat should play particularly well in Texas.
- Bringing Choo into the fold takes care of the final item on the Rangers' to-do list and helps ensure that the three-way race for the American League West will once again be must-see baseball, writes Fangraphs' Paul Swydan.
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com looks at possible lineups for the Rangers now that Choo is in the fold.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
While the market for Shin-Soo Choo has been slow to develop, he could have already found a home had accepted a lavish offer from the Yankees. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that even after signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153MM contract, the Yankees offered Choo a seven-year, $140MM contract. Agent Scott Boras reportedly countered by asking for Ellsbury money, and the Yankees instead elected to sign Carlos Beltran to a much cheaper three-year, $45MM pact.
With Choo no longer a fit in New York, Boras will have to look elsewhere to try to top that $140MM figure. The Rangers are one team that has been said to be interested in Choo, but reports have indicated that they prefer him on a five-year deal. Beyond that, according to Passan's report, Texas has instead turned its focus to Masahiro Tanaka.
Passan also adds that multiple teams, including the Astros, have offers on the table to Choo at this time. It's not clear how much Houston has offered, but as Passan notes, an outfield of Choo, Dexter Fowler and top prospect George Springer would be an excellent trio. The Astros, however, aren't big fans of the idea of surrendering their second-round pick to sign Choo, writes Passan, especially considering that NC State lefty Carlos Rodon — a Boras advisee — is the favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Astros. Rodon would command a significant chunk of Houston's draft budget, which would shrink were the team to forfeit its second-round selection.